I took a look back at some of the CHONE projections for some of the key players from your 2010 Baltimore Orioles and compared them with the actual numbers and added a few thoughts.
Wigginton AVG OBP SLG OPS HR Projected .271 .326 .451 .777 17 Actual .254 .319 .426 .745 22
I thought the projection for Ty looked a bit optimistic and it turned out that it was. Those aren't bad numbers for a bench/platoon type though. If the Orioles could bring him back next year in that role, I wouldn't be opposed. In the field he is a jack-of-all-trades but master of none type but he is a capable sub around the infield and as a corner outfielder.
Izturis AVG OBP SLG OPS HR Projected .255 .301 .334 .635 2 Actual .236 .282 .275 .557 1Izzy came in well under even the paltry projections. You have to wonder if the glove is good enough to justify the weak bat. I love having a guy out there who is going to catch the ball, I just don't know if it's worth the drawbacks at the plate.
Pie AVG OBP SLG OPS HR Projected .273 .332 .435 .767 10 Actual .271 .303 .399 .703 5Man, I like Felix Pie but are these the numbers you wanted to see from him in 2010. He was injured but the lack of patience and relative lack of power make him questionable as anything more than a 4th outfielder in the long term
Jones AVG OBP SLG OPS HR Projected .294 .349 .497 .846 18 Actual .280 .322 .440 .762 19In a recurring theme, Jones basically held steady instead of making real progress with his bat in 2010. Just another young hitter that is not developing much under the Oriole coaches.
Markakis AVG OBP SLG OPS HR Projected .301 .373 .484 .857 19 Actual .293 .366 .426 .791 10
Yeah, yeah...Nick is not living up to expectations. I've beat that horse enough.
Wieters AVG OBP SLG OPS HR Projected .289 .355 .460 .815 15 Actual .252 .322 .383 .706 11
This is a load of crap. Where's the Wieters we were promised? A 15.3% line drive rate? Why can't this kid drive the ball? Buck needs to fix this kid if he hopes to win in Baltimore.
Scott AVG OBP SLG OPS HR Projected .259 .337 .471 .808 21 Actual .288 .365 .545 .910 27
The only regular to outperform expectations, Scott has put together a career year. My head says trade him, my heart says stick him at first base.
Guthrie IP K BB HR ERA Projected 184.0 107 57 28 4.65 Actual 201.1 114 57 25 3.98
“If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, looks like a duck, it must be a duck.” Guthrie has outperformed his projections, his FIP and his peripherals for four straight seasons. You have to accept that even though he is not the classic success story, that he is a good pitcher. He doesn't strikeout a bunch of guys, he gives up his share of homers and he doesn't get a ton of ground balls but he limits the walks and finds ways to get the opposition out.
Matusz IP K BB HR ERA Projected 100.0 80 38 13 4.59 Actual 169.2 134 61 18 4.40
If you extrapolate the difference in innings, that's a pretty good projection for Matusz. The second half has certainly been encouraging.
Bergesen IP K BB HR ERA Projected 140.0 73 43 18 4.82 Actual 163.0 77 51 25 5.02
Fairly close for Bergesen too. Given his strong(er) second half, I like Bergy to improve on these numbers next season. He is, as he always has been, a decent looking back of the rotation starter.