tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-51900154795506873162024-02-07T00:36:03.622-05:00Dempsey's ArmyMusings from the Oriole diaspora since 2006DempseysArmyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01052985408659519460noreply@blogger.comBlogger1072125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190015479550687316.post-1197096837294887432022-08-03T13:30:00.005-04:002022-08-03T13:32:59.828-04:00Bradford Doolittle and Terrible, Horrible, No Good Trade<p><span style="font-family: arial;">I’ll admit, I do not know the work of Bradford Doolittle. Maybe I should know him but cut me some slack, I’ve been out of the game for a minute. (His name should definitely be wearing a top hat and a monocle) But after Twitter directed me to his article on ESPN.com grading the Orioles’ recent swap of Jorge Lopez, I am more familiar with his psyche than I ever hoped to be.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>After a hectic day before trade deadline day, the actual deadline day kicked off with a deal between a team scrambling to hold onto a narrow division lead and a team scrambling to relinquish its unexpected status as a postseason contender.</i></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">I typically use Fangraphs for my playoff odds and using their base calculation the Twins have a 49.3% chance to make the postseason and the Oriole chances are….2.5%. Hard to compare a team with multiple paths to the postseason and a current division lead to the Orioles for whom it’s wild card or bust and they are battling it out with 6 other teams for those spots. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">But hey, Fangraphs leans heavily on pre-season projections and sees the O’s as a regression candidate. Other models weigh in-season results more heavily. So over at Baseball Reference, we see the Twins have 50.4% chance at the postseason and the Oriole have a 37.4% chance. Not too shabby.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">But would this make us buyers? We are projected to go 29-28 the rest of the season. Great! But how does dealing Jorge Lopez affect those odds? More on that later…</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Lopez, meanwhile, has arguably been the most improved player in baseball this season. After entering the campaign as a failed starter with a 6.04 career ERA, he made some drastic changes to his pitch mix and his career suddenly took off.</i></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">He made some drastic changes to his pitch mix. Hmm. <i>He</i> made. I wonder who suggested that to him? Odd that he did not make these changes in Milwaukee or Kansas City. Guess it was just a coincidence that these changes started happening once he joined the Orioles. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">In his first full season with the Orioles, Lopez’s K% ticked above 20.0 for the first time in his career. With the shift to the bullpen, he increased his velocity and started leaning heavily on his sinker and slider and became an All-Star. Baltimore deserves some credit for turning a journeyman hurler into an effective weapon. His career did not “suddenly” take off. More on that later…</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>There is a white flag flying over Camden Yards. Someone should write a song about it.</i></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Is that a Star Spangled Banner joke? You cheeky monkey.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>While the Twins are embracing their narrow, uncertain chances at a playoff run, the Orioles are sprinting away from their still-breathing probabilities as if they were being chased by the ghost of Babe Ruth.</i></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Is 50.8% narrow and uncertain? I think not.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">There is a reason the Orioles have a puncher's chance at a wild card berth...their winning July. The team went 16-9 that month, surging into the playoff race and bringing into question what they should do at the deadline. What did Lopez do that month? A 4.76 ERA and opposing batters had a .913 OPS against hm. He turned every hitter into Pete Alonso. On another note, Trey Mancini slashed .237/.321/.355 in July. That is just above Odor-esque production at the plate. It is not as if Mancini and Lopez put the team on their back and dragged them to 16 wins...the team won in spite of those guys. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">So this is not even the waving of a white flag. It could be a rally flag instead. This team might actually get better. (Indeed, they are 2-0 for August...)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>With Lopez leading the way, the work of Baltimore's bullpen has been the backbone of the team's surprising success this season.</i></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Yeah….kind of? The O’s bullpen has been great this year and Lopez has been a big part of that with 1.1 fWAR out of the ‘pen. But Felix Bautista has been just as good, also 1.1 fWAR. Dillon Tate has been just as good as Lopez (0.9 fWAR over fewer innings). Cionel Perez, Keegan Akin and Bryan Baker have also been very good in their roles. See, baseball is a team game. Lopez is not the entire relief corp on his own. Someone will need to step up and take a bigger role now that he is gone…will that be Nick Vespi? I am doubtful but this organization has been surprisingly good at finding and developing relief arms.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Lopez was one of those. A waiver wire claim back in 2020, the Orioles were able to turn him into an asset and an All-Star. Tate was one of the arms we got back for Zach Britton back in 2018. Bautisa was a rookie league minor league free agent signing back in 2016. Baker and Perez were waiver wire claims this past offseason. Akin was a 2nd round draft pick back in 2016.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">The Orioles have been great at developing relief arms under Mike Elias and I am willing to bet they can patch it together again.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Even after the Mancini trade weakened the Baltimore roster, the Orioles' playoff chances went up at the end of the day -- from around 11% to 15% -- because they went out and won a game. I guess that didn't sit well with GM Mike Elias, so he picked up the phone and shipped out the standout performer from the most productive position group on his roster.</i></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">I love the imagery of Mike Elias as Snidely Whiplash, twirling his handlebar moustache and laughing maniacally as he trades Lopez to the Twins. This’ll get them to lose! I mean, where does he get this characterization from?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>I know, I know. The Orioles are rebuilding. But you know when a rebuild is over? When your team reaches August with a winning record, is 2 1/2 games out of a playoff spot</i></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Imagine the scene, Elias coming out for a Warehouse press conference with a huge “MISSION ACCOMPLISHED” banner behind him. “Gentlemen, when we started this rebuild three and half seasons ago, my goal was to have this team two full games over .500 in the month of August and by God, we have achieved that goal! I declare the rebuild over!”</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Anyway, from a value standpoint, I'd rather bet on Lopez outproducing any one of these four prospects over the next three seasons, but he'd be hard-pressed to outproduce the aggregate of the quartet over the duration of all those controllable seasons. Yippee.</i></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">I don’t think Doolittle understands the aim of trading for prospects. There is not a rule that you lose the prospects after three years. This is quite an arbitrary time frame to declare winners and losers.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Maybe all of these pitchers will be part of a postseason Orioles team in five years. Maybe they won't. Either way, it won't make me any less annoyed about what they've done over the last two days.</i></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b><i>Grade: F-</i></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">It’s the minus for me.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">I am not aware of Doolittle’s personal grading scale. Maybe he has a G. But if not, this is the absolute lowest grade you can give a transaction. If you don’t like it, you could give it a C or C- but I don’t know if trading a newly minted closer can ever be an F-. It just won’t have that kind of impact, even if you blow it.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;">Here’s an F- trade that could be made…Elias traded the entire starting lineup save for Rougned Odor, throws in 3 starting pitchers and D.L. Hall getting Joey Gallo in return. Then he machine guns some puppies at home plate, pees on the Cal Ripken, Jr. statue and sets the stadium on fire. That’s an F-. </span></p><p><span id="docs-internal-guid-0e755b4f-7fff-fd38-7625-d9c047324ff5"></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #48494a; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: arial;">I don’t know if he has problems with the Orioles organization in general but this analysis lacks all perspective. I hope old Bradford is able to recover. Maybe I’ll send him a new top hat.</span></span></p>DempseysArmyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01052985408659519460noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190015479550687316.post-68149621203962211492020-03-11T12:34:00.000-04:002020-03-11T13:58:09.415-04:00John Means and His Narrow Path Forward<br />
One of the few bright spots for the 2019 Baltimore Orioles was starting pitcher John Means. The soon-to-be 27-year old lefty finished second in AL RoY voting and posted a 3.60 ERA over 155 innings. Things look great, huh?<br />
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Well, maybe. Means also had a FIP of 4.41 and an xFIP of 5.48. The discrepancy between his ERA and FIP (E-F) ranks 8th among MLB starters who pitched 150 innings or more. (All rankings going forward are for MLB SPs with 150 IP or more in 2019.) His K/9 just barely eked over 7 and his BABIP allowed was a likely unsustainable .256. All these peripherals scream that a massive correction is coming for Means in 2020.<br />
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Or does it? Instead of looking at these obvious peripherals and assuming Means got very, very lucky in 2019, let's see if we can find what Means did well, how he got those results and if these skills can carry into 2020.<br />
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Did Means induce a large number of ground balls? He did not. In fact, quite the opposite. Means is an extreme flyball pitcher with 50% of batted balls hit in the air. (Caleb Smith at 52.2% is the only MLB pitcher with a higher rate in 2019.) That is a bad fit for Camden Yards. How did he succeed?<br />
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Means is not your typical early-21st century pitcher as he barely strikes out 7 per 9 IP. If you are going to have that kind of rate, you need to keep the walk rate down and he did. His 2.21 BB/9 ranked 18th among this group which is not dominant control but very good and it can help limit damage if more balls that average are being put in play. (This is different than a guy like the Cardinals Dakota Hudson who sports a similar strikeout rate but walks nearly double Means' rate pointing to more "smoke-and-mirrors" results for him in 2019.)<br />
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So Means is stingy with free passes which helps but it's not a crazy-good rate. Let's look at batted balls and how he was able to keep that BABIP so low.<br />
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Scrolling through the leader boards at FanGraphs, I do find two categories where Means ranked as elite in 2019. He was in the top 5 in O-Contact% at 73.5% which puts him between crafty veterans like Mike Fiers and Rick Porcello. That means batters were making a high amount of contact of pitches outside the zone and perhaps inducing weak contact.<br />
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As far as weak contact, Means was number one in limiting hard hit balls. Number one. His Hard Hit % of 27.8 is just ahead of Noah Syndergaard, Jacob DeGrom and Stephen Strasbourg.<br />
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Over at the Athletic, <a href="https://theathletic.com/1553506/2020/02/10/introducing-hard-minus-soft-rate-h-s-a-simplified-contact-spread-metric-with-custom-2019-leaderboard/">they looked at combining Hard Hit% and Soft Hit %</a> to measure a pitcher's ability to limit quality contact with their Hard Minus Soft Rate (H-S%) measurement. A description of the stat and its stated purpose:<br />
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<i>"Hard Minus Soft is a statistic that compares the number of times a pitcher is hit hard and the number of times that same pitcher induces soft contact. I intend for H-S% to be viewed and used in a similar manner to K-BB%, as it should highlight pitchers who combine the best of the two outcomes."</i><br />
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As you can see in the below screenshot, Means comes in 9th, just behind Stephen Strasbourg and Kenta Maeda and just ahead of Lucan Giolito and Zack Wheeler.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjblrlrXEdPRuztK9YaWpBdXw7ITClQucAcaBctzBLelNfxuqavHZXuNaPJGIlkiP3TrEssl7OgyjLheXGvn78E53Z3mVXqx259mrIPElIj38KlNEAE7j7zLavLWnzpTC8saidTTp99LjQ/s1600/Means.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="244" data-original-width="656" height="148" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjblrlrXEdPRuztK9YaWpBdXw7ITClQucAcaBctzBLelNfxuqavHZXuNaPJGIlkiP3TrEssl7OgyjLheXGvn78E53Z3mVXqx259mrIPElIj38KlNEAE7j7zLavLWnzpTC8saidTTp99LjQ/s400/Means.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Is this a "sticky" skill? Can John Means continue to (seemingly) induce weak contact by getting batters to strike pitches out of the zone? I can't answer these questions yet but am fascinated to see if he can.<br />
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And he'd better. Without some improvement in his underlying talent (his fastball speed ticking up a bit, improving swing-and-miss rates on one of his secondary pitches), this is Means' way forward as an effective MLB starter. Fortunately for Means, even with some regression built in, a pitcher who can hold an ERA between 4.25-4.50 over 175 innings is still incredibly valuable to this team in 2020.<br />
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<br />DempseysArmyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01052985408659519460noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190015479550687316.post-3820380122242222052015-03-01T16:10:00.000-05:002015-03-01T16:10:10.229-05:00Orioles Face Tough Task Of Repeating In American League EastAs far as surprises go, the Baltimore Orioles probably had the most impressive season in baseball in 2014. The team was able to run away with the American League East title, and they also had a little bit of success in the postseason. With that being said, there are going to be quite a few changes surrounding the roster as spring training starts up. Can they repeat as champions in a tougher division in 2015?<br />
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The Orioles lost 3 key pieces to their team from 2014, as Nelson Cruz, Nick Markakis and Andrew Miller all left as free agents. It is impossible to get mad with individual players in baseball looking to get paid, but some fans were a little frustrated that Baltimore did not make a better effort to keep at least one of those guys around. Cruz was a standout in <a href="https://www.fanduel.com/fantasy-baseball">fantasy baseball leagues</a> last year, and Markakis had been with the team for close to a decade. Miller emerged as a guy who kept the bullpen together down the stretch in 2014, as he was one of the most effective left-handed relievers in the game.<br />
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Coming in, the team only has 2 significant signings right now. Travis Snider still has some value as an outfielder, and Wesley Wright will try to do his best Andrew Miller impersonation.<br />
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In order to make up for the lost lineup talent, many fans are expecting healthier seasons for Matt Wieters and Manny Machado. Baltimore was able to survive without them being healthy last year, but that just won’t work in 2015. Not only will those 2 players need to play well, but veterans like Chris Davis and JJ Hardy need to be a little bit more productive in fantasy baseball leagues as well. They both suffered from down seasons in 2014.<br />
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The Boston Red Sox and the Toronto Blue Jays improved their roster over the winter, but the American League East is still not as tough as it used to be just a few years ago. Baltimore is going to be right there in the mix, especially if the pitching staff holds up. They had one of the best team ERAs last year, and if they can do that again, everything will be going very well.DempseysArmyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01052985408659519460noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190015479550687316.post-77857228165487967272013-08-08T07:53:00.001-04:002013-12-04T14:05:43.718-05:00The Nick Markakis-Brian Roberts Steroids MashupIn 2007, Oriole second baseman Brian Roberts was named in the Mitchell Report and <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/bal-te.sp.roberts18dec18,0,769248.story">issued a statement admitting his use of steroids.</a><br />
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In 2013, Oriole rightfielder Nick Markakis was very candid with Dan Connolly about <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bal-orioles-nick-markakis-says-ped-users-need-stiffer-punishments-20130805,0,2356536.story">his feelings on the current batch of players who were suspended for links to the Biogenesis lab and steroid use in baseball in general.</a><br />
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<a href="https://www.fanduel.com/fantasy-baseball">Fantasy Baseball</a><br />
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Here is Roberts' prepared statement from 2007 mixed up with Markakis' quotes from Monday's article in the Sun. Go!<br />
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<b>Brian Roberts:</b> I would like to address the allegations that were made against me in the Mitchell Report. I will begin by saying that I have worked very hard to develop a good reputation both on and off the field. I have always taken pride in being a man of integrity and values. <br />
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<b>Nick Markakis:</b> These guys that are doing performance-enhancing drugs are taking away from a lot of other people that are doing it the right way. They are taking opportunities away and they are basically stealing.<br />
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<b>BR:</b> I know that by being a professional athlete, I am held to a very high standard. I never have and never will take that for granted. However, I am also human and I have made mistakes.<br />
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<b>NM:</b> These guys are big boys; they can make decisions. If I go out there and rob a convenience store, I know the consequences that are coming with it. We are all adults here.<br />
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<b>BR:</b> In 2003, when I took one shot of steroids, I immediately realized that this was not what I stood for or anything that I wanted to continue doing. I never used steroids, human growth hormone or any other performance-enhancing drugs prior to or since that single incident. <br />
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<b>NM:</b> ...I’m just disappointed in these players. This is a harmless game that has never done anything to anybody except be good to people. And you are going to go out there and cheat a game that is supposedly the national pastime?<br />
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<b>BR:</b> I can honestly say before God, myself, my family and all of my fans that steroids or any performance-enhancing drugs have never had any effect on what I have worked so hard to accomplish in the game of baseball. <br />
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<b>NM:</b> I know how hard this game is, and to see some of these guys going out there and putting up these video game numbers, it’s mind-boggling. It’s disappointing; it’s frustrating. Because you know how hard you have to work just to get to this level.<br />
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<b>BR:</b> I am very sorry and I deeply regret ever making that terrible decision. My only hope and prayer is that the Orioles, my family, friends and fans that have supported me so faithfully will forgive me.<br />
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<b>NM:</b> These guys are going to come out and say they are sorry and apologize. But I think for the most part they are apologizing because they got caught. For you to go out there and disrespect the game is not only a slap in the face of the game, but a slap in the face of everyone that does it the right way.<br />
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I find the juxtuposition of Roberts and Markakis fascinating. Not only are they still teammates as Nick makes these comments, they were really the faces of the franchise, arguably, from 2006-2010 so they will always be linked in my mind as the defining Oriole players for that 5-year span. Markakis' frank talk on the subject is completely different from Roberts' as Brian has NEVER addressed steroids outside of that prepared statement. Nick's comments were not only unprepared but came straight from the heart. We have never heard Roberts speak so frankly on the subject even though he was directly involved. (And if you think that Roberts used once and only once, I would remind you that <a href="http://grg51.typepad.com/steroid_nation/2007/12/brian-roberts-s.html">he denied Jason Grimsley's accusations initially</a>. It would be naive to believe that "only one time" assertion if he hadn't lied about the allegations earlier, it would be completely foolish to believe him.)<br />
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<br />DempseysArmyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01052985408659519460noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190015479550687316.post-77913850606385697402012-11-20T03:14:00.000-05:002012-11-20T03:14:00.163-05:00Hanging 'Em Up<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwVph0CkYT-E2QZ-SBdF2h0zCOK3lt1OjCdrwyLM3EB_Id2qeS96nz99HOQpjpQulBfmMUW5gMNEfpWmiQJbRq1tVTYbO2IDRa_-CPOl9bftEKNbRKCetdcxu1fFO8Z42DPxWjBtJyH9s/s1600/2009_10_cleats.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwVph0CkYT-E2QZ-SBdF2h0zCOK3lt1OjCdrwyLM3EB_Id2qeS96nz99HOQpjpQulBfmMUW5gMNEfpWmiQJbRq1tVTYbO2IDRa_-CPOl9bftEKNbRKCetdcxu1fFO8Z42DPxWjBtJyH9s/s320/2009_10_cleats.jpg" width="316" /></a></div>
After more than six seasons, I going to hang up my blogging cleats and shut down Dempsey's Army.<br />
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As anyone who comes here regularly has noticed, the frequency of my posting has fluctuated quite a bit over the past year and a half and it's trending toward much less. I have never claimed to be a great writer but I did take pride in the fact that I could take some interesting angles on certain subjects and that I wrote on a regular basis. I am finding time to write (and do it well) harder to come by and while I keep kidding myself that over that next hill I'll find more, it's just not going to happen in the near future. If I'm not writing on a regular basis, I'm not sure what I can hang my hat on. I'd rather shut the blog down than let it continue a slow death and just go inactive.<br />
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Thanks to anyone who came here to read my ramblings. Dempsey's Army was always a very personal project to vent my thoughts and post analysis on the Baltimore Orioles and the fact that anyone came to check it out was more than I ever expected. Beyond that, thanks to all those who linked to my posts, invited me to participate in special events, extended me press credentials like I was a real writer or let me write on other sites. None of these were goals but they were wonderful and welcome surprises.<br />
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Goodbye, don your rally caps and let's go O's!<br />
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<br />DempseysArmyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01052985408659519460noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190015479550687316.post-51004028363296786562012-11-19T14:02:00.002-05:002012-11-19T14:02:47.955-05:00Guest Post at Camden Depot: The Clutchiest HitsWhat were the top 10 clutchest hits for the Orioles in 2012 (in terms of WPA)? Find out <a href="http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2012/11/clutchest-hits-of-2012.html">here</a>. The results might surprise you.DempseysArmyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01052985408659519460noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190015479550687316.post-59604968268707210342012-09-29T14:42:00.000-04:002012-09-29T14:42:18.645-04:00Guest Post at Camden Depot: Who Gets the Credit for the 2012 Orioles?<a href="http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2012/09/who-gets-credit-for-2012-orioles.html">I have a post up this morning</a> over at Camden Depot.breaking down player contribution to this season's team with what GM brought them to town. Enjoy!DempseysArmyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01052985408659519460noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190015479550687316.post-91587579890331574282012-09-28T17:43:00.001-04:002012-09-28T17:43:25.135-04:00This Week in Chat, Part 2: 9/28/2012Part 2 of the weeks chats boiled down to their Oriole essence...<br />
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<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/fangraphs-chat-92612/">Dave Cameron, Fangraphs.com</a><br />
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12:03 Comment From Preston <br />
Could the Orioles outperforming their expected wins based on WAR mean that we are over-valuing defense and under-valuing bullpens in the equation?<br />
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12:03 Dave Cameron: <br />
No. <br />
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12:05 Comment From Person hscer <br />
if the wild cards end up atlanta st. louis oakland baltimore, who has the best chance at the WS? the worst?<br />
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12:05 Dave Cameron: <br />
I think St. Louis is the best of those four teams. Baltimore's probably the worst.<br />
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12:05 Comment From The Oriole Bird <br />
Do you expect the O's to be a big player in this year's free agent market? If so, whom would you expect them to target?<br />
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12:06 Dave Cameron: <br />
Yeah, my guess would be that they'll look to add a big name pitcher to the rotation. I could see them in on Greinke, Haren, or Peavy.<br />
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12:24 Comment From TKDC <br />
Say the Yankees are a game back of the Orioles on the last day of the season and they play either before or at the same time (so a win could be meaningless). If possible, would you throw your ace, or would you save him for the one-game playoff?<br />
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12:25 Dave Cameron: <br />
The play-in game should be a bullpen day, so I'd use Sabathia and watch the scoreboard very closely.<br />
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12:55 Comment From Dan <br />
Without making any changes to the roster, Baltimore will be a __ win team in 2013.<br />
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12:55 Dave Cameron: <br />
85.<br />
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12:59 Comment From Scott <br />
Does Bundy pitch over 100 innings in the majors next year?<br />
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12:59 Dave Cameron: <br />
Don't think he's ready yet, no.<br />
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<a href="http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/newyork/chat/_/id/45450">Wallace Matthews, ESPN.com</a><br />
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george (boston)<br />
8 games left - what's your guess at the Yanks record? Let's say 5-3. That would mean the O's would have to play to 6-1 to force a tiebreaker. So ... Yanks pretty much a division lock?<br />
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Wallace Matthews (12:34 PM)<br />
I figured at the start of this stretch the Yankees would win at least 6 of these last 10 games, and more likely seve. They are 1-1 so far, so sticking with my gut, that means a final record of 95-67<br />
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<a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=967">Ian Miller, Baseball Prospectus</a><br />
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Roger (Washington DC): <br />
So 2012 has seen the debut of Harper, Machado, Profar, and Bundy. At least two and quite possibly three of them are up for good. Is this the greatest group of teenagers collectively in the majors at the same time? More importantly, what the heck is happening to the standard development curve?<br />
<br />
Ian Miller: <br />
I can't say for certain that they're the best group of teens ever, but OTOH, I can't think of any other group, so maybe, yeah! <br />
<br />
The second part of your question is far more interesting to me, though. Is this just a fluke, or is it something more profound? Are diets or training regimens or something else entirely causing players (kids) to develop faster than ever? I think that's a very real possibility, but it's not a question a liberal arts guy like me can answer. <br />
<br />
Intriguing, though.<br />
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<br />
<a href="http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/45448">Tony La Russa, ESPN.com</a><br />
<br />
Henry (Phoenix)<br />
How good for the game is it that we've seen teams like Baltimore, Washington, and at least earlier in the season, Pittsburgh, have some success this year?<br />
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Tony La Russa (3:31 PM)<br />
I think one of the problems with our system is so often the city and the fans going into spring training don't have a realistic chance of being excited. Like Tampa Bay if you draft smart and develop well, you can build a nucleus and make some moves to jump into the competition.<br />
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<a href="http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/45425/mlb-insider-keith-law">Keith Law, ESPN.com</a><br />
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Ryan (DC)<br />
The Orioles run differential is down to -1. Thoughts?<br />
<br />
Klaw (1:07 PM)<br />
Which means they've played roughly like a .500 team. There's been a weird emphasis on the O's run differential potentially turning positive, as if that's a binary variable. It's not. The point is that a team that barely outscores its opponents on the season doesn't end up 20 games over .500 without a lot of good fortune.<br />
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Rob (DC)<br />
What do you think is the ceiling for Tillman? Been looking pretty good this year.<br />
<br />
Klaw (1:25 PM)<br />
He has looked good. Looking at him as a potential above-average starter again.<br />
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Mike (DC)<br />
Do you think Showalter is a big reason for the O's success this year? Seems like he manages circles around people...<br />
<br />
Klaw (1:27 PM)<br />
I think he's a reason, but no manager can entirely explain their success this year.<br />
<br />
Randy (Baltimore)<br />
How do you see the Machado/Hardy situation playing out in BAL for 2013?<br />
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Klaw (1:28 PM)<br />
If I were the GM there I'd try to trade Hardy and get Machado back to shortstop, which I believe is his long-term position.<br />
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Mike (DC)<br />
Think Jonathon Schoop could be the O's long term answer at 2B, or is he more likely to move to 3B and take over there when Machado goes to SS?<br />
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Klaw (1:32 PM)<br />
Third base. But I think he was rushed this year.<br />
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Andrew (LA)<br />
I'm glad the O's called up Bundy to get his feet wet. What situations would be ideal for Bundy to pitch i.e. mop up duty or close contests?<br />
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Klaw (1:50 PM)<br />
I'd rather use him in longer outings than short ones. Not concerned about the score, just don't want to see him used like a short reliever, warmed up more than once in a game, asked to come in and air it out for a few pitches, etc.<br />
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Joe (Chicago) <br />
I have seen a lot of Orioles fans says that the reason Bundy is able to pitch now is because the Orioles made him throw three inning starts earlier in the season. What is your response to this?<br />
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Klaw (1:55 PM)<br />
Shelby Miller.<br />
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Muzzy (Leicesster)<br />
Mr. Law, I have a three-part Davis question for you: Ike's overall numbers are not good, but is there anything in his swing that says he's not the player he was or is not healthy? Chris Davis is having a breakout year...that looks almost exactly like his career slash line. Is this the "real" Chris? Finally, can Khris hit enough to overcome his fielding limitations? Thanks!<br />
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Klaw (2:00 PM)<br />
Ike: will always swing and miss, but there's power there. This is probably the real Chris. Khris (Brewers prospect) probably gets there as an extra guy.<br />
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<br />
<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/mike-newman-prospects-chat-92712/">Mike Newman, Fangraphs.com</a><br />
<br />
4:10 Comment From The Oriole Bird <br />
What kind of future, if any, do you see for LJ Hoes?<br />
<br />
4:11 Mike Newman: <br />
Tweener type. Potentially a 4th outfielder, but I don't think he contributes quite enough to be considered a starter.<br />
<br />
4:41 Comment From Jeremy Strain <br />
Did you get a chance to see Delmonico with Delmarva before he got hurt? What's your take on him?<br />
<br />
4:42 Mike Newman: <br />
Yes, and I've written about him at FG at length. I liked the hit tool, but LOL'd at their attempts to make him a 2B. He will be ranked on my list of the top 1B prospects I've seen this season.<br />
<br />
<br />
<a href="http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/45381/mlb-with-jayson-stark">Jayson Stark, ESPN.com</a><br />
<br />
Mike (San Diego)<br />
You have no idea how much I'm rooting for Oakland, LAA, Baltimore, and Tampa to have the same record. Bring on the chaos!<br />
<br />
Jayson Stark (1:33 PM)<br />
Easy for you to say. You don't have to travel 12,000 miles in 72 hours to break all those ties!<br />
<br />
Curt (Trappe Md)<br />
Very exciting time to be an Oriole fan this year which is something we have not had for almost 20 years, but how do you explain a team without 1 player having an average of 300 is knocking on the door of the division title?<br />
<br />
Jayson Stark (1:35 PM)<br />
It's incredible, isn't it? And only one pitcher making 20 starts! I'm going to quote my friend Casey Stern of Sirius/XM fame. Heard him say one day the Orioles aren't a great team, but they're one of the greatest stories ever. Totally agree.<br />
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Wayne (Baltimore)<br />
How about them Birds!!! With the schedule that both teams have remaining (Red Sox and Rays for O's, Jay's and Sox for Yanks) what realistic chance do the Orioles have of winning the East outright?<br />
<br />
Jayson Stark (1:41 PM)<br />
I don't like their chances, based on the schedule alone. The Yankees finish with the Blue Jays and Red Sox, two teams that are 37 games under .500 just since Aug. 1. The Orioles also get the Red Sox at home, but those three games in Tampa Bay to finish up look awfully precarious.<br />
<br />
Danny (Baltimore)<br />
Does Matt Wieters deserve any MVP consideration, he has done a masterful job handling the O's rotation mess.<br />
<br />
Jayson Stark (1:57 PM)<br />
He'd be in my top 10. He's had a fantastic season. Really fulfilling expectations that people had for him.<br />
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<br />DempseysArmyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01052985408659519460noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190015479550687316.post-11405226079701769332012-09-27T07:43:00.000-04:002012-09-27T07:46:41.070-04:00The Orioles Go PrimetimeCould Deion Sanders have cured the Orioles offensive doldrums?<br />
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<a href="http://www.csnbaltimore.com/baseball-baltimore-orioles/news/Deion-Sanders-takes-BP-with-Orioles?blockID=779633&feedID=6876">Via CSN</a>:<br />
<br />
<br />
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Where we boil all the weeks baseball chats down to their Oriole essence...<br />
<br />
(For the first time in the history of this semi-regular feature, the Baltimore Orioles are seemingly the talk of the baseball world and there is so much here after Tuesday's chats for a post. I'll post part two from this week on Saturday...)<br />
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<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/dan-szymborski-fangraphs-chat-92412/">Dan Szymborski, Fangraphs.com</a><br />
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12:05 Comment From Joel <br />
How excited were you last night (if you watched the O's game), when you saw Dylan Bundy jog out to the mound? Any impressions?<br />
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12:05 Dan Szymborski:<br />
Unfortunately I wasn't. Because I had run upstairs to get a bite to eat because I hadn't had any lunch and I was hungry. I got back in time to see the last pitch in Valencia. I'm going to look back at the game this afternoon. That's why awesome starting prospects need to have announced debuts.<br />
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12:15 Comment From Os Fan <br />
I Steve Johnson.<br />
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12:15 Dan Szymborski: <br />
I Dan Szymborski.<br />
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12:34 Comment From JT <br />
How should the Orioles handle their postseason rotation? Do you think a Rockies-esque paired pitching system would suit them best?<br />
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12:34 Dan Szymborski: <br />
I dont' think you want to go with anything too crazy at this point - dangerous time to start experimenting. The WC game is, however, the focal point of the offseason that all planning should go through - it's the only game in advance that you know for a fact will risk your elimination.<br />
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12:37 Comment From The Oriole Bird <br />
I'm going to the doubleheader today. Think I'll see Bundy pitch?<br />
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12:37 Dan Szymborski: <br />
Hope so! Good luck!<br />
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12:47 Comment From Os Fan <br />
Dangit, that was a "less than three" heart there. What gives cover it live?<br />
<br />
12:47 Dan Szymborski: Ah, so you're not Steve Johnson? Definitely gotta dig that ultra-slow loopy curve that he has.<br />
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12:49 Comment From STiVo <br />
Estimate the likelihood of the following happening today: The Orioles sweep today's doubleheader against the Jays, and the Yankees lose to the Twins. If this occurs, the O's will be 0.5 games ahead of the Yankees.<br />
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12:50 Dan Szymborski: <br />
let's say 36% for winning both and Yankees 35% lose to Twins. That's what, 12%?<br />
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12:54 Comment From Darn Zimbowski <br />
Dan Duquette's #1 priority this offseason...?<br />
<br />
12:54 Dan Szymborski: <br />
3B<br />
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1:04 Comment From Penguinis <br />
Last week, Dave Cameron said Mark Reynolds is "awful" at first base, while a general consensus of Oriole fans, broadcasters, and Buck Showalter seem to think he's playing gold glove caliber defense. What do you think? And if he's actually any good, why does UZR hate him?<br />
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1:04 Dan Szymborski: I don't think he's quite that awful. I don't think he's all that good. After watching Reynolds at third, he's going to inevitably look good. Like how after you watch a rerun of Suddenly Susan, Two and a Half Men doesn't seem so bad.<br />
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<a href="http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/45370/mlb-with-jerry-crasnick">Jerry Crasnick, ESPN.com</a><br />
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Ryan (State College)<br />
Whats the most fascinating storyline left with so few games to play?<br />
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Jerry Crasnick (1:02 PM)<br />
Ryan, For me, it's the Orioles and A's both making spirited runs at the wild card spots. But you can also look at the fallout that will ensue if the Tigers and Angels fail to make the playoffs. I'm a Little Engine that Could type of guy, so I like the underdog storylines.<br />
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Harrison (New York)<br />
Who are your AL and NL managers of the year? (I've got Buck Showalter(AL) and Don Mattingly(NL))<br />
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Jerry Crasnick (1:08 PM)<br />
Harrison, I'll go with Showalter in the American League. As for the National League, I think the first place managers -- Johnson, Baker and Bochy -- will all get some support. You can make a strong case for Dusty Baker given how his team played in Votto's absence, and the way he didn't let his contract status become a distraction.<br />
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Nick (College Park)<br />
Jerry, given that they don't have an ace, I wouldn't make the O's a favorite vs. anyone in the WC, but in a full series, I think they've got a fighting shot. They've got a good record agains everyone but Texas, I think. I think we've also reached the point in the season where almost nothing they do will surprise me. What say you?<br />
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Jerry Crasnick (1:39 PM)<br />
Nick, I spent two months writing off the Orioles, then I just threw up my hands and decided they're for real. There are some things in baseball that can't be fully explained by the numbers, and that team's success is one of them.<br />
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Jay (Baltimore)<br />
So would you give Jim Johnson/O's bullpen the O's MVP? or Showalter? or Adam Jones?<br />
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Jerry Crasnick (1:44 PM)<br />
Jay, That's a really apple and orange-y comparison. I would probably go with Adam Jones because he does so many things day-in and day-out for that club. He has really matured into a leader and a guy who's accountable every game. Throw in the power and the defense in center, and he's an incredibly valuable piece for that club. I think he helped keep them together when Markakis went down with what could have been a crushing injury.<br />
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Jason (St Louis)<br />
The Orioles may be for real as you say but they don't have the look of a team built to make a run in the playoffs, if you want my unsolicited honest opinion. They've got to lose an extra innings game one of these day at a minimum.<br />
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Jerry Crasnick (1:46 PM)<br />
Jason, I hear you. The rotation looks iffy for October and you have to wonder when the strain of pitching all those one-run and extra-inning games will catch up to that bullpen -- a la the Braves of 2011. But I'm past the point of saying that team"can't" do anything.<br />
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<a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=969">Bill Parker, Baseball Prospectus</a><br />
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Albert (DC): <br />
What do you think of the 2012 Orioles?<br />
<br />
Bill Parker: <br />
I'm in favor. Look, I know they probably aren't a great team, etc. In my mind, though, there's a difference between wanting a setup that makes it more likely that the best teams come out on top (which is kind of what my last answer was about) and actually wanting the best teams to always come out on top. If we've got a good, competitive system, and you're a mediocre team that somehow beats that system over a full 162-game schedule, good for you! I'd love to see an Orioles-Nats World Series, both because I spent a few years down there and it'd make me happy, and because I think it makes for the best story.<br />
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@jakelarsen (chicago): <br />
Looking at the remaining schedule for Wild Card contenders and Division leaders, who do you see making playoffs when all the dust has cleared?<br />
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Bill Parker: <br />
I think the Yankees win the AL East, because they get to play the Twins now. I think the White Sox win the Central by default, because nobody wants it at all, and obviously the Rangers win the West. I don't see a compelling reason to go against the current WC leaders, Baltimore and Oakland. In the NL, with the Brewers getting creamed as I type, it's all but set in stone: Washington, Cincinnati, San Francisco, Atlanta and St. Louis.<br />
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john (ct): <br />
Orioles-Nats would be great for baseball. As a lifelong O's fan- back to the days of Brooks Robinson, this season has been a very pleasnat surprise. And how about the Nats- no more "first in war, first in peace and last in the American League". Gonzalez just struck out 200. Walter Johnson was the Washington player to do that!<br />
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Bill Parker: <br />
Not a question, so I don't have an answer, I just love the excitement.<br />
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<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/jeff-sullivan-fangraphs-chat-92512/">Jeff Sullivan, FanGraphs.com</a><br />
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12:07 Comment From Kyle <br />
Where's the love for the O's Steve Johnson? Guy is so good.<br />
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12:08 Jeff Sullivan: <br />
The Orioles overall make so little reasonable sense that it's hard to focus on any one individual player of theirs. Sure, we could focus on Steve Johnson for a little bit, but then it's like, shouldn't we just be talking about the Orioles? What on earth is going on with the Orioles?<br />
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12:16 Comment From The Oriole Bird <br />
Over the next three seasons, how many times do you expect Adam Jones to post more than 4.5 WAR?<br />
<br />
12:17 Jeff Sullivan: <br />
I'll say one time? And another time where he's very close. And one time where he's more like 2-3, due to either underperformance or injury<br />
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<a href="http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/45384">David Schoenfield, ESPN.com</a><br />
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John (NC)<br />
Hey David, with 8 Games left for the Orioles, 1 1/2 games back in the East and 1 1/2 games up on the A's (3 1/2 on Angels), where do you see Baltimore's season going from this point?? And if they make the playoffs, how far do you see them going?<br />
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David Schoenfield (2:07 PM)<br />
I think the Yankees win the East and the O's take the first wild card. The lack of an "ace" would seem to hurt them in the wild-card game, but of course Showalter would have a very quick hook. But I don't see them beating the Rangers in the Division Series. Nothing they do would surprise me though. An O's-Nats Beltway Series would be pretty fun.<br />
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<br />DempseysArmyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01052985408659519460noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190015479550687316.post-65647246357581752912012-09-24T13:18:00.000-04:002012-09-24T13:18:30.786-04:00These 2012 Orioles are Record BreakersThis team has broken a lot of records on their way to their improbable playoff chase, individual and team, franchise and league. Here's a look at some of the notable, the obscure and downright bizarre.<br />
<br />
<b>Jim Johnson breaks the franchise saves record</b><br />
<br />
It seems almost fitting that Jim Johnson broke the Oriole's single season saves record during the only winning season that the team has had since lefty fireballer Randy Myers set the old mark of 45 back in 1997. After years of being the best reliever in the Oriole bullpen and watching men not nearly his equal get big buck to come to town and fill that role, Johnson has shown that becoming a proven closer does not require receiving training from Ra's al Ghul to develop that poise and steely determination that all closers seemingly possess. You just have to pitch well, keep the ball in the park and generate outs. After watching that "proven closer" label being thrown around by Oriole management and having Johnson's ability to close questioned by a few in the local media, it's nice to see the guy succeed and get in line for his own huge payday, first in arbitration and then in free agency. 47 saves...and counting.<br />
<br />
<b>Adam Jones hits more doubles than any other Oriole centerfielder</b><br />
<br />
Jones has racked up 31 home runs but he'll not sniff Brady Anderson's famous mark of 50 set in 1996 and no other center fielder is likely to. But what Jones has done during his breakout season is tie Anderson for the team record of doubles from an Oriole center fielder with 37. I like Jones' chances to break that record over the team's last nine games.<br />
<br />
<b>Strikeouts of various iterations</b><br />
<br />
The Orioles set their franchise record for batting strikeouts as a team at 1019 in 1964. That total was not exceeded for 46 years when the 2010 Orioles took the crown with 1056. The 2011 Orioles blew right past that (thank you Mark Reynolds) with 1120. But this team is more than 100 strikeouts beyond the 2011 total and still has nine games to go. However many more strikeouts are added to the 1227 these batters have already been rung up, it's hard to imagine this total being approached again.<br />
<br />
In addition, this team will also set the franchise record for most players with 100 strikeouts on a team. The 2011 Orioles only had 2. The 2008 team had 4. This team has 6! (Wilson Betemit, Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Mark Reynolds, J.J. Hardy, Matt Wieters) And Robert Andino, with 97 is knocking on the door.<br />
<br />
<b>Manny Machado</b><br />
<br />
Manny Machado is officially the most successful 19-year old to ever play for the Baltimore Orioles. Sure, he's actually 20 right now but this is his age 19 season. He has 14 extra base hits. (Brooks Robinson had 5 during his age 19 season). He has played in 41 games. (<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/causewa01.shtml">Wayne Causey</a> played in 51 for the 1956 Orioles). His bWAR is 1.1 and his fWAR is 0.7. Nobody else is even close to half of those totals.<br />
<br />
<b>Winning Percentage in One Run Games</b><br />
<br />
Even after yesterday's loss to the Red Sox, the 2012 Orioles are tied for first (with the 1981 Orioles) for the highest winning percentage in one run games since 1901. I'll give the 2012 O's the tie-breaker on the identical .750 winning percentages because they have won 6 more games and '81 was a strike shortened season.<br />
<br />
<b>Extra Inning Games</b><br />
<br />
I believe, if the Orioles win their next extra-inning game, they will tie the record for consecutive extra inning wins. But even if they don't, this is still one of the greatest extra-inning performances in baseball history. Taken in terms of winning percentage and the number of extra inning games played, their 16-2 mark is only exceeded by the 1949 Cleveland Indians (18-1) and the 1959 Pittsburgh Pirates (19-2).<br />
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DempseysArmyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01052985408659519460noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190015479550687316.post-45082263372976832032012-09-20T08:06:00.000-04:002012-09-20T08:06:25.240-04:00How to Build a Winner: The 2012 Baltimore OriolesA graphical representation of the origin story for these 2012 Baltimore Orioles. Well, the best I could do at least.<br />
<br />
Click on the picture or go <a href="https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B24BASQCWzMCcWk0LTExNlAwUDA">here</a> for a full sized view.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSWpFL1tfgyq7jBkg8UxxWrL44RqMzL0EN8ehDoCaqwVIzDkIZyA3C0yH8mFSeKh7TY1n0le31d108ZN7GQyTcjmo-VBysCrlw6cmLAco09RpIJV1Bx-VpXx2rO1wIJRyVnJ9a9LoIAQk/s1600/AnantomyWinner.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="414" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSWpFL1tfgyq7jBkg8UxxWrL44RqMzL0EN8ehDoCaqwVIzDkIZyA3C0yH8mFSeKh7TY1n0le31d108ZN7GQyTcjmo-VBysCrlw6cmLAco09RpIJV1Bx-VpXx2rO1wIJRyVnJ9a9LoIAQk/s640/AnantomyWinner.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />DempseysArmyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01052985408659519460noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190015479550687316.post-81720883691648362182012-09-17T11:28:00.003-04:002012-09-17T11:28:45.612-04:00What's Up with Pedro Strop?Pedro Strop came into yesterday's game in the 9th inning and turned what was a 9-4 romp into a relatively tense affair with the tying run in the on deck circle when Buck Showlater called in Jim Johnson to get the final out of the game. For Strop, it was 2/3 of an inning, 2 singles, a walk and a run surrendered.<br />
<br />
It was the latest in a string of disturbing outings for Strop over the past two weeks ranging from shaky to disastrous. What's going on?<br />
<br />
Here is a breakdown of Strop 2012 ERA's and FIP's by month for 2012.<br />
<br />
<pre> ERA FIP
April 2.08 3.43
May 0.66 3.49
June 0.96 3.31
July 1.64 3.29
August 4.09 2.02
September 8.31 8.04
</pre><br />
Strop has been outperforming his FIP and xFIP all season long. August was the first month in 2012 where his peripherals were actually better than his overall results. <br />
<br />
He's walked 6 is his last 7 appearances while only walking 2 in his previous 7 games. His strikeout rates remain about the same and his ground ball rate is still in the 65% range. It has just been the extra walks and some of those grounders finding holes.<br />
<br />
These last 7 games have been the worst stretch of the season for Strop in terms of wildness and walks and he'll have to figure out how to throw it over the plate on a more consistent basis if he is to remain a key member of the Oriole bullpen. But he has only 16 games left to figure that out. <br />
<br />
When's Troy Patton coming back again? DempseysArmyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01052985408659519460noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190015479550687316.post-11076661254328557502012-09-14T09:58:00.000-04:002012-09-14T09:59:24.069-04:00Markakis Coming into His Own (Or Was Anyway...)<i>I was working on this post but then I was at that game last Saturday night at OPACY when C.C. Sabathia hit Nick Markakis with a pitch and broke his thumb and it thoroughly bummed me out so I set this post aside. I'm going to post it anyway since I think his recent performance still hints at future greatness...</i><br />
<br />
If I consider Nick Markakis' Oriole career disappointing, it's only because I had such high hopes. <a href="http://dempseysarmy.blogspot.com/2007/12/crystal-ball-08-nick-markakis.html">As early as 2007</a>, I was comparing the young outfielder to Hall of Famers and All-Stars. But mostly, <a href="http://dempseysarmy.blogspot.com/search?q=enos+slaughter">I compared him to Enos Slaughter</a>, the Hall of Fame outfielder who chiefly played for the 1940's and 50's St. Louis Cardinals:<br />
<br />
<br />
<b><i>As the (2008) season went on, I became more convinced that Markakis is the second coming of Enos Slaughter. Both are/were lefties, both play(ed) rightfield and both are/were very good fielders with great arms, at least when young.<br />
<br />
Their bats are very similar as well:<br />
</i></b><br />
<pre><b><i>
OPS+
Age 22 Age 23 Age 24
Markakis 106 121 134
Slaughter 105 122 133
</i></b></pre><b><i>Spooky, huh?<br />
<br />
Slaughter's OPS+ at age 25 was 141. How do we get Markakis there? I'll say:</i></b><div><b><i><br />
<pre> BA 2B HR OBP SLG OPS OPS+
Markakis '09 .315 40 29 .415 .520 .935 141
</pre><br />
</i></b></div><br />
Using the Slaughter comparison beofore the 2008 season, I had fairly accurately predicted Markakis' offensive output. I assumed this steady improvement would continue in 2009 but I was wrong.<br />
<br />
As it turned out, 2008 was the offensive peak for Markakis thus far. From 2009-2011, his OPS+ was 116 and only 2010 could be pointed to as "not disappointing". I was never a huge believer in Nick's ability to be a 30+ homer guy but 20-25 homers, load so doubles, a perennial .300 batter and a stellar walk rate figured to be in his future. <br />
<br />
Instead, he never hit even 20 homers again, his hit tool has not proved to be as formidable as I thought and the walk rate has been good but not outstanding. He was becoming Mr. Average at the plate. A guy who did several things well but excelling at none.<br />
<br />
Before his first injury, Markakis was going about his season at a 110 OPS+ clip, about what he had averaged over the last three seasons. But upon his return and subsequently taking on the role as leadoff man, he has done what I predicted back in 2009:<br />
<br />
<pre> 2B HR BA OBP SLG OPS
Markais (leadoff) 15 5 .335 .390 .489 .879
</pre><br />
Markakis, in the 54 games since his return, is hitting at what would be about a 140 OPS+ and even taking his season in total, he ranks 21st among American League hitters in OPS+. His BABIP is a little higher than his career totals but nothing abnormal.<br />
<br />
What I'm saying is that in the leadoff spot, as I've discussed before, Markakis has found the elevated level of talent that I and many others projected for him after those first three great seasons. Sure, 54 games is a small sample size and I would feel a lot better about all of this if Nick hadn't broken his thumb and could keep this momentum going but if I believed in the talent before, I have to believe in it now. Nick is Enos Slaughter reborn, even if he is three years behind schedule.<br />
DempseysArmyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01052985408659519460noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190015479550687316.post-90368861814335983422012-09-06T08:41:00.000-04:002012-09-06T08:41:34.369-04:00Zach Britton Getting NoticedI thought I would pass this along...Zach Britton is getting noticed outside of Baltimore. <a href="http://www.midwestsportsfans.com/2012/09/great-britton-orioles-zach-britton-for-real/">Andrew Schwartz of Midwest Sports Fans provided his thoughts on the young pitcher</a>:<br />
<br />
<i><b>A former 3rd round pick, Britton was previously ranked (in 2010) as a top-30 prospect by Baseball America, so his success shouldn’t come as that great of a surprise. But still, after Britton spent the first three months of the season in the minors and then accumulated an 8.35 ERA through his first 4 starts of 2012 season, he didn’t appear to be the most likely candidate to suddenly turn into a late-career version of Sandy Koufax.<br />
<br />
So now, the question is whether Britton’s recent dominance is sustainable or whether it is merely “smoke and mirrors.”</b></i><br />
<br />
You'll find a very thorough analysis of why Schwartz believes this version of Britton might be for real.DempseysArmyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01052985408659519460noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190015479550687316.post-35121149783064146432012-09-05T07:33:00.000-04:002012-09-06T12:48:47.740-04:00Negative Run Differential Playoff Teams and the Key to Their Success<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Much has been made of the Orioles' negative Run Differential this season. But they would hardly be the first team to make the playoffs with a negative Run Differential. In fact, I have discovered a commonality that helps to explain how teams can be outscored but still produce winning results.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><b>1987 Minnesota Twins</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The Twins switched from a plain outfit to their signature pinstripes before the '87 season and added "Minnesota" to the away jerseys. As a result, they were able to overcome being outscored by 20 runs to win the AL West and eventually the World Series.</div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMStSs7yNva4F9mN2mLiligIxCqbpmj5zmjfjFzFTbKy8IQRbG3mBSMfE8lVokQdhhGpWpLQYZlecBQKhWVRkTyfQG8UscmWgMlAWuMVaEJlChcOd1SJ4nUkjyUE32Sl0z8h_gv8Ur3zY/s1600/al_1986_minnesota.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMStSs7yNva4F9mN2mLiligIxCqbpmj5zmjfjFzFTbKy8IQRbG3mBSMfE8lVokQdhhGpWpLQYZlecBQKhWVRkTyfQG8UscmWgMlAWuMVaEJlChcOd1SJ4nUkjyUE32Sl0z8h_gv8Ur3zY/s320/al_1986_minnesota.gif" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">1986 Twins Uniforms</td></tr>
</tbody></table><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhW0N28w4Mwxydb0QFy8VYMos_9xK1gcbDIvjlFfnCL0SaD42BddSG7fNfuFEar7JOd9ZzJwBTyzAbD1T0_ISWKCmpGkRtTPqRYJw3MN7BWcNMQpdjAiRhAgPKRM9rAMKhLuCrA-dTw26M/s1600/al_1987_minnesota.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhW0N28w4Mwxydb0QFy8VYMos_9xK1gcbDIvjlFfnCL0SaD42BddSG7fNfuFEar7JOd9ZzJwBTyzAbD1T0_ISWKCmpGkRtTPqRYJw3MN7BWcNMQpdjAiRhAgPKRM9rAMKhLuCrA-dTw26M/s320/al_1987_minnesota.gif" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">1987 Twins Uniforms<br />
</td></tr>
</tbody></table><div style="text-align: center;"><b><br />
</b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b>1989 Houston Astros</b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b><br />
</b></div>OK, the Astros didn't actually make the playoffs but they would have in the current Wild Card environment. The subtle changes from a pullover jersey to a button-up and adding a belt to the pants helped Houston finish 10 games over .500 despite being outscored by 22 runs.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgayxNacaR_sJJcqh21GEqVrVUYCKnRhkNrpKACxkEJPEgvjPfj7KWY0QrRJM-8PcuJ4RxQGWgUXDSCch7lbbn7gGHCrQxKgoCjAxXGqEnyjs2Zg24CLMTH1WOQj4hlLWBG-c5ry1pe1M4/s1600/nl_1988_houston.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="370" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgayxNacaR_sJJcqh21GEqVrVUYCKnRhkNrpKACxkEJPEgvjPfj7KWY0QrRJM-8PcuJ4RxQGWgUXDSCch7lbbn7gGHCrQxKgoCjAxXGqEnyjs2Zg24CLMTH1WOQj4hlLWBG-c5ry1pe1M4/s400/nl_1988_houston.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">1988 Astros Unis</td></tr>
</tbody></table><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipzCQ0W86MgiBe-KxkqNGVmWFH3x_hJO47tCI65YziVNzNpsLGJFIKGxMbDUkgT-MOoV0jqXh8JvSMQdUtwpjJYWoSk9MGRLfyvQCQexJFRO3zuBaIKPiUyihedC_aInOjct4OM2Roq6w/s1600/nl_1989_houston.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="370" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipzCQ0W86MgiBe-KxkqNGVmWFH3x_hJO47tCI65YziVNzNpsLGJFIKGxMbDUkgT-MOoV0jqXh8JvSMQdUtwpjJYWoSk9MGRLfyvQCQexJFRO3zuBaIKPiUyihedC_aInOjct4OM2Roq6w/s400/nl_1989_houston.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">1989 Astros Unis</td></tr>
</tbody></table><div style="text-align: center;"><b><br />
</b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b>1991 San Diego Padres</b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b><br />
</b></div><div style="text-align: left;">San Diego ditched the brown and brought blue to the forefront on their revamped unis for the 1991 season. The team did not make the postseason but would have in the current Wild Card environment despite being outscored by 10 runs.</div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifwhpAf0DKA5b4_OTK7NLQIF7vz4HXa7z5m-_K-DWfSPukZCIB0qHTWK7IWHWemM3lytHQsRtFMMJn8qBKd07iwa_Q69Qfb1QmP5Oj-zOtZC5bhhNbueP8orJuZ7fEhLYku94Q2A6wMJc/s1600/nl_1990_sandiego.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="370" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifwhpAf0DKA5b4_OTK7NLQIF7vz4HXa7z5m-_K-DWfSPukZCIB0qHTWK7IWHWemM3lytHQsRtFMMJn8qBKd07iwa_Q69Qfb1QmP5Oj-zOtZC5bhhNbueP8orJuZ7fEhLYku94Q2A6wMJc/s400/nl_1990_sandiego.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">1990 Padres Unis</td></tr>
</tbody></table><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPqkwwUlei1QstjzpMHqqfanEBWw6vsavlD_F0ejJGHHu8UNUf6dPDiAJSLB0ZLNAQfqKGwVImhHiqTH7x43swS3L6ugoxniVbW9XuFPnJv4_DN4XhQSJjp1HsfWM9DFzVO33gc2FxPAo/s1600/nl_1991_sandiego.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPqkwwUlei1QstjzpMHqqfanEBWw6vsavlD_F0ejJGHHu8UNUf6dPDiAJSLB0ZLNAQfqKGwVImhHiqTH7x43swS3L6ugoxniVbW9XuFPnJv4_DN4XhQSJjp1HsfWM9DFzVO33gc2FxPAo/s320/nl_1991_sandiego.gif" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">1991 Padres Unis<br />
</td></tr>
</tbody></table><div style="text-align: center;"> <b>2007 Arizona Diamondbacks</b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b><br />
</b></div><div style="text-align: left;">The Diamondbacks ditched the weirdness of their purpley and turquoisey pinstripes for a more cohesive anchor of red and embracing the script "D" on their caps. They won 90 and the NL West crown despite being outscored by 20 runs on the season.</div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLXzTBsI6OMMtd778yq-CNsHONVZqgG4AZnq1VLfmITuQknZmdD-kY2dWPXg_QWmAgrUuZLP2Isng4SX7SMcwb04oFS6iDyxzaTMdF-rD0PovhEpHmlYR3iKZpbDqQ0R42Qo5dMPPLsBw/s1600/nl_2006_arizona.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLXzTBsI6OMMtd778yq-CNsHONVZqgG4AZnq1VLfmITuQknZmdD-kY2dWPXg_QWmAgrUuZLP2Isng4SX7SMcwb04oFS6iDyxzaTMdF-rD0PovhEpHmlYR3iKZpbDqQ0R42Qo5dMPPLsBw/s320/nl_2006_arizona.gif" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">2006 D-Backs Unis</td></tr>
</tbody></table><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggcCgnF5eM9siZJ-hw2SkRywzky0whnWp6easii45BugqL9kkoJ55zzMXWBpxJ9iWirj1DwVjy1QIM_V4t3OfvbnfNGkZ0iEKk_apSZf2N9wvMXS-MqAgGpHjPTW-IrNVpU22x4IrRNq0/s1600/nl_2007_arizona.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggcCgnF5eM9siZJ-hw2SkRywzky0whnWp6easii45BugqL9kkoJ55zzMXWBpxJ9iWirj1DwVjy1QIM_V4t3OfvbnfNGkZ0iEKk_apSZf2N9wvMXS-MqAgGpHjPTW-IrNVpU22x4IrRNq0/s320/nl_2007_arizona.gif" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">2007 D-Backs Unis<br />
</td></tr>
</tbody></table><div style="text-align: center;"><b>2012 Baltimore Orioles</b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b><br />
</b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;">A-ha! AH-HAH!!!</span></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXzrOJODoTN51PhA7Ypc_LXEXN0oI59rH0GMfd5sfUYp-vuuxQcmqPi217aI2S_9kfv_8F9ekut6rAV9_VaQ-QAG90QhQ8-I8-bI57kQz0oRygCtah6nhi1ntV0IwEjqzHA7SahtEKkZ0/s1600/al_2011_baltimore.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXzrOJODoTN51PhA7Ypc_LXEXN0oI59rH0GMfd5sfUYp-vuuxQcmqPi217aI2S_9kfv_8F9ekut6rAV9_VaQ-QAG90QhQ8-I8-bI57kQz0oRygCtah6nhi1ntV0IwEjqzHA7SahtEKkZ0/s320/al_2011_baltimore.gif" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">2011 Baltimore Unis</td></tr>
</tbody></table><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLDVhxihK7vfe0VmWKJyMOrvZIoDuRaUGcrbhYBXDcIyeiJ5cxqxdFTyVwPFehPuTUYhA3_e63dwVfhWyTPSpIQczBJwumTyG7PF_KHZPaI71q4EHYuNJ4ewGrdoFa-ib5mIxvqzzVaJ0/s1600/al_2012_baltimore.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLDVhxihK7vfe0VmWKJyMOrvZIoDuRaUGcrbhYBXDcIyeiJ5cxqxdFTyVwPFehPuTUYhA3_e63dwVfhWyTPSpIQczBJwumTyG7PF_KHZPaI71q4EHYuNJ4ewGrdoFa-ib5mIxvqzzVaJ0/s320/al_2012_baltimore.gif" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">2012 Baltimore Unis<br />
</td></tr>
</tbody></table><div style="text-align: left;"><br />
</div>DempseysArmyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01052985408659519460noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190015479550687316.post-64135211552011976712012-09-04T09:25:00.002-04:002012-09-04T09:28:25.109-04:00Individual Performances Leading Team Effort on Charge to the TopOn July 18th, the Orioles were 2.5 games out of the AL Wild Card spot and 10 full games back on the Yankees for the AL East title. Today, they started the day in possession one of the wild card spots and a single game behind the Yankees for the division lead going 29-15 over that stretch.<br />
<br />
While this has been an improbable team effort, there are some great individual efforts that have sparked this run. Here are the Orioles who helped lead that furious charge. Not surprisingly, most of these guys are pitchers.<br />
<br />
<b>Nick Markakis</b><br />
<br />
<pre> AVG OBP SLG OPS 2B 3B HR
Markakis .331 .390 .489 .879 9 2 5
</pre><br />
Nick has been on fire since his return from the DL and is flourishing in his new role as leadoff hitter. He is now the best hitter in the lineup.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Mark Reynolds</b><br />
<br />
<pre> AVG OBP SLG OPS 2B 3B HR
Reynolds .252 .366 .489 .855 9 0 8
</pre><br />
Reynolds has streaked his way to offensive relevance over the past 6 weeks while leading the team in walks, ranks second on the team in ISO and since moving to first base has provided adequate defense. Some of the fans who were clamoring for a playoff spot were also the same ones who were crapping all over Reynolds this season which I always found strange since this team was going to need every bullet in the arsenal to make a run at even a wild card berth. Reynolds has proved to be valuable in that endevour.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Wei-Yin Chen</b><br />
<br />
<pre> IP K BB HR ERA
Chen 54.2 51 16 7 3.79
</pre><br />
In the absence of Jason Hammel, Chen provided some stability and a center to the revolving door of starters entering and exiting the rotation. Not spectacular but always solid.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Chris Tillman</b><br />
<br />
<pre> IP K BB HR ERA
Tillman 52.0 41 17 8 3.81
</pre><br />
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<b>Miguel Gonzalez</b><br />
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<pre> IP K BB HR ERA
Gonzalez 49.0 37 14 8 3.67
</pre><br />
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<b>Zach Britton</b><br />
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<pre> IP K BB HR ERA
Britton 41.0 37 15 5 4.39
</pre><br />
I lump these three guys together because with the rotation is ruins, these three came in on the Norfolk shuttle to throw some quality innings and settle things down. There were some rough spots for sure but the minor league journeyman, the former prospect whose star had faded and the top prospect who was working his way back from injuries have teamed up to give the pitching staff a huge boost.<br />
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<b>Steve Johnson</b><br />
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<pre> IP K BB HR ERA
Johnson 18.0 37 14 8 3.67
</pre><br />
Steve Johnson has come up from AAA to provide some spot starts and long relief for the team. With Tillman's health in question, he will be taking on a larger role in September. Remember when we lost Johnson in the Rule 5 draft a couple of years ago? Thank God we got him back.<br />
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<b>Luis Ayala</b><br />
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<pre> IP K BB HR ERA
Ayala 19.1 11 4 1 2.79
</pre><br />
And why wouldn't we see a bunch of guys from bullpen on this list? Ayala is not spectacular and give up his fair share of hits but he is working enough magic to strand enough runners to be very effective.<br />
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<b>Pedro Strop</b><br />
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<pre> IP K BB HR ERA
Strop 18.0 18 8 0 2.50
</pre><br />
The big fastball and impressive ground ball rate offset the occasional wildness as Strop continues his breakout season.<br />
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<b>Darren O'Day</b><br />
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<pre> IP K BB HR ERA
O'Day 17.2 18 6 0 0.51
</pre><br />
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<b>Troy Patton</b><br />
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<pre> IP K BB HR ERA
Patton 11.0 11 2 0 0.00
</pre><br />
The unsung heroes of the 'pen whose praises I keep trying to sing. Even though he is now on the DL, look at what Patton had done before he went down. And O'Day has been dominant. I want Patton back and soon.<br />
DempseysArmyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01052985408659519460noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190015479550687316.post-13439883669531917212012-09-02T21:07:00.001-04:002012-09-02T21:07:22.704-04:00Stunned Silence<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUN9609shot2yOWHuKNvKpqcz-HvSJTufV4F0N_7g41kSqeBIosDzD7Ach92ksQRZRUAmWWqveb9oZ1K9t8pmKGaZ-A3hDoZeCwR_r435lGNUOcCB_8kqASEyOaB1EDUETEPA_TtpV7Es/s1600/StunnedSilence.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUN9609shot2yOWHuKNvKpqcz-HvSJTufV4F0N_7g41kSqeBIosDzD7Ach92ksQRZRUAmWWqveb9oZ1K9t8pmKGaZ-A3hDoZeCwR_r435lGNUOcCB_8kqASEyOaB1EDUETEPA_TtpV7Es/s640/StunnedSilence.jpg" width="427" /></a></div>
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<br />DempseysArmyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01052985408659519460noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190015479550687316.post-43896823485115789562012-08-31T17:15:00.000-04:002012-08-31T17:15:00.290-04:00Free-Swinging Orioles Making History AgainThis Oriole team is looking to make some history by breaking a 14 season winning streak and has a chance to even make the playoffs. But this team is a mortal lock to create even more team history by, for the third straight season, breaking the franchise single season record for striking out.<br />
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The 1964 team struck out 1019 times and the 1968 team matched that total. That record stood for more than 40 years but along came the 2010 club who shattered that record with 1056. <a href="http://www.masnsports.com/orioles_buzz/2011/08/heath-bintliff-these-orioles-could-be-record-setters.html">The 2011 team pushed that record out even further with 1120 whiffs.</a><br />
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But this team already has 1046 strikeouts as a unit and is hurtling for last season's total with great velocity.<br />
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Here's a graphical breakdown of the team's strikeout leaders:<br />
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This team is striking out over 8 times a game. No Oriole team has ever averaged 7 in a game before. <br />
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There's really no great conclusion to this outside of "Damn, this team strikes out a lot!". Just an observation.<br />
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DempseysArmyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01052985408659519460noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190015479550687316.post-39072499779491990382012-08-31T12:49:00.000-04:002012-08-31T12:49:03.454-04:00Breathe Deep Baltimore at OPACY, September 22<i>I don't post a lot of press releases but this event is for a great cause and sounds like a cool experience. Check it out.</i><br />
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<b>Lung Cancer Survivors, Loved Ones to Gather for LUNGevity’s Breathe Deep Baltimore Walk to Stop Nation’s Number One Cancer Killer</b><br />
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BALTIMORE (August 30, 2012) – Hundreds of people whose lives have been impacted by lung cancer will gather in Oriole Park at Camden Yards for LUNGevity Foundation’s Breathe Deep Baltimore 5K Walk/Fun Run Saturday, September 22, 2012. The only event of its kind to take place inside the Baltimore Orioles’ home stadium, check-in begins at 9 a.m.; the program, 10 a.m.; and the walk/run, 10:10 am– rain or shine. LUNGevity, the nation’s largest lung cancer-focused nonprofit, hosts the event to raise awareness and funds for earlier detection and more effective treatments of lung cancer.<br />
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Fun activities for kids, a video game theatre, prizes and free refreshments, and more will be available for participants to enjoy. Retired Baltimore Orioles catcher (1989-1998) and Baltimore Orioles Hall of Famer Chris Hoiles is participating in the day’s festivities. The walk will take place on the field, with many pre-event activities, on the stadium’s concourse level. The day will include a silent auction and raffle.<br />
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<a href="http://events.lungevity.org/site/TR?fr_id=3430&pg=entry">Breathe Deep Baltimore Web Site</a><br />
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The Breathe Deep walks and runs are LUNGevity’s nationwide signature events, launched by the Foundation to raise public awareness and critical funds needed for lung cancer research. Through LUNGevity’s expansive grassroots network, communities, celebrities, corporate executives and elected officials across the country are coming together to stand up to the nation’s number one cancer killer. LUNGevity’s Breathe Deep events offer a place for those impacted by the disease to share, hope and heal.<br />
Lung cancer takes more lives annually than breast, prostate, colon, and pancreatic cancers combined. In fact, with one in 14 Americans diagnosed in his or her lifetime, the number of people who die from lung cancer is equal to having a jumbo jet fall from the sky every single day. More than half the people diagnosed with lung cancer have never smoked or have already quit smoking. There is no widely available and cost effective early diagnostic test, and only 16 percent of people diagnosed with lung cancer survive five or more years post-diagnosis.<br />
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LUNGevity Foundation has the largest grants award program for lung cancer research among lung cancer nonprofit organizations in the United States. In the past two years alone, LUNGevity has awarded over $5 million to the most promising lung cancer research projects. In addition to funding research, the Foundation has a robust national grassroots network, with events happening across the country. The organization also has the largest online support community for lung cancer patients and their loved ones.DempseysArmyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01052985408659519460noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190015479550687316.post-46493214345795425942012-08-28T12:17:00.000-04:002012-08-28T12:18:07.134-04:00Curse of the Andino Is Real After AllOK, so maybe I was wrong.<br />
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At the end of last season, when the Orioles won their 69th game and knocked the Red Sox from the playoffs, I was not one of the Baltimore fans giddy with delight. The game was met with excitement and hailed as one of the biggest victories for he franchise in years. <a href="http://dempseysarmy.blogspot.com/2011/09/saddest-state-of-affairs.html">I did not agree.</a><br />
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I thought it was a real loser's mentality to get excited about knocking one division rival from the playoffs just so another could go. It seemed pointless to get so worked up about a team with 69 wins and the prospect of Tampa Bay in the ploayoffs versus Boston. It was just sad.<br />
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But my biggest objection to the celebration was that the Boston defeat would have no lasting effects on the Red Sox franchise and they would remain favorites to win the AL East for years to come. Evidently, I was wrong.<br />
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<b>The knee-jerk reaction to the Red Sox collapse is that this will be a devastating blow to the organization. A death blow. A failure that will result in a changing of the guard and a decline of the team into mediocrity. I would love for that to be the case but that's probably not going to happen.</b><br />
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It's looking more and more like it was a death blow. And the Red Sox have been the embodiment of mediocrity this season.<br />
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<b>Boston fans are not clamoring for the heads of Terry Francona and Theo Epstein. Nor is the Boston press. While acknowledging that this collapse was really, really horrible, measured responses are being seen in most corners. No one in the Red Sox management seems to be in danger of being forced out.</b><br />
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This was true. The Boston press, the fans (in general) and the Red Sox ownership all said that scapegoats were not being sized up. But within 2 weeks of me writing the above opinions, Terry Francona was fired, Theo Epstein was off to Chicago and fried chicken-gate had been exposed by the Boston Globe. As it turned out, the Red Sox were ripe for the plucking in terms of a management overhaul. The Orioles had but to push the first domino.<br />
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<b>Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Kevin Youkilis, Adrian Gonzalez, John Lester, Dustin Pedroia, Clay Bucholz and Jacoby Ellsbury are all coming back. </b><br />
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The 2010 version of Beckett came back. Crawford couldn't stay on the field. Youkilis is in Chicago. Gonazalez is having his worst season since he became a regular. Lester and Pedroia are having the worst seasons of their careers. Bucholz has been not great shakes. Ellsbury...see Carl Crawford.<br />
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And now Beckett, Crawford and Gonzalez find themselves with the Dodgers.<br />
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<b>They have prospects popping up all over the end of year Top 20 lists over at Baseball America. </b><br />
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Only Will Middlebrooks contributed in any meaningful way.<br />
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<b>This is not the end of the Boston Red Sox. Win or lose, they will fill some holes, resign some guys, heal their injured and be right back among the favorites to take the division in 2012.</b><br />
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They brought David Ortiz back. But their signings of Kelly Shoppach, Nick Punto, Aaron Cook, Vincente Padilla and Cody Ross did not exactly set the league on fire.<br />
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So it appears that Robert Andino's hit was a desperate stab in the dark that hit its mark with deadly accuracy. The Red Sox went from World Series favorites to full rebuilding mode in less than 11 months.<br />
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Oriole Magick, indeed.<br />
DempseysArmyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01052985408659519460noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190015479550687316.post-51808137402716425202012-08-26T16:16:00.000-04:002012-08-26T16:17:06.925-04:00Baltimore Acquires Joe Sauders from Arizona<a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120826&content_id=37368488&vkey=news_bal&c_id=bal&partnerId=rss_bal&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter">The Baltimore Orioles acquired starting pitcher Joe Saunders from the Arizona Diamondbacks for reliever Matt Lindstrom</a> and a player to be named later. The Diamondbacks also sent some cash to offset the $1 million plus still owed to Saunders for the rest of the 2012 season.<br />
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Lindstrom had been acquired before the season along with Jason Hammel from the Rockies in the Jeremy Guthrie trade. Lindstrom pitched well for the O's but a stretch on the DL between May 10th and June 27th had limited him to 36.1 innings for the club. He was the second highest paid player in the bullpen (behind Kevin Gregg) making $3.6 million in 2012. Although he has been valuable, if the Orioles have any strength to deal from it is within their relief corp and it was unlikely that the team would excercise his hefty $4 million option for 2013 ($200,000 buyout). This is not a whole lot for the club to give up in terms of relative value.<br />
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Saunders is kind of a left-handed version of Jeremy Guthrie. He's a low-strikeout, low-walk guy who gives up his fair share of homers but seems to survive with a middling ground ball rate and eats up the innings. Indeed, Saunders routinely tops 180 innings pitched and there is value in a slightly above average starter who can provide that number of innings. (Yes, these are the exact things I used to say about Jeremy Guthrie...) Now, there's no guarantee that Saunders will actually be an above average starter coming in from the NL West to the AL East but he should at least approach averagish results. That's more than we can say about some pitchers who have been starting games for Baltimore over the last couple of months.<br />
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While it's not exactly a world changer for the team, any move that keeps the likes of Dana Eveland and Tommy Hanson a step further away from the mound at Camden Yards is a good thing. And I like bolstering the starting rotation this way better than trading prospects for Joe Blanton. <br />
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Hard to get too excited but I think Saunders helps this team on its improbable wild card chase in September.DempseysArmyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01052985408659519460noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190015479550687316.post-75251665201362692582012-08-26T12:08:00.000-04:002012-08-26T12:11:14.333-04:00A Few Quick Pictures......of some of the Norfolk Tides players from Tuesday's game. Some of these guys ended up in Baltimore this weekend and helped the team win the Toronto series.<br />
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<embed src="http://p.webshots.com/flash/smallslideshow.swf" flashvars="playList=http%3A%2F%2Fcommunity.webshots.com%2Fslideshow%2Fmeta%2F583305380qpDDXf%3Finline%3Dtrue&inlineUrl=http%3A%2F%2Fcommunity.webshots.com%2FinlinePhoto%3FalbumId%3D583305380%26src%3Ds%26referPage%3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fsports.webshots.com%2Fslideshow%2F583305380qpDDXf&postRollContent=http%3A%2F%2Fp.webshots.com%2Fflash%2Fws_postroll.swf&shareUrl=http%3A%2F%2Fsports.webshots.com%2Fslideshow%2F583305380qpDDXf&audio=on&audioVolume=33&autoPlay=false&transitionSpeed=5&startIndex=0&panzoom=on&deployed=true" menu="false" quality="best" width="425" height="384" name="WebshotsSlideshowPlayer"base="http%3A%2F%2Fp.webshots.com%2Fflash%2F" wmode="opaque" allowScriptAccess="always" loop="false" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" pluginspage="http%3A%2F%2Fwww.macromedia.com%2Fgo%2Fgetflashplayer"></embed><br /><br /><a href="http://sports.webshots.com/album/583305380qpDDXf">Tides vs. Braves</a>DempseysArmyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01052985408659519460noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190015479550687316.post-7090111905476243352012-08-22T14:52:00.000-04:002012-08-22T14:53:12.295-04:00From Jeff Conine to Chris Davis: A Recent History of Offensive Futility at First BaseFor more than 10 years, the Baltimore Orioles have been looking for a regular first baseman. By and large, they have failed.<br />
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Below is a graph showing the Orioles' offensive output measured by sOPS+, a comparison of OPS compared to the rest of the league's first basemen. (sOPS+ stats pulled from <a href="http://baseball-reference.com/">Baseball-Reference.com</a>)<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikt5JePMexiHQkUmKGlPvcYJGZWDLXSV3Nv2O0sfpCFMfN5tHxV_D6HRN5o_mLcGEo0eW2hUmhcV9AlVRl0rsZmcS3B72FAYMqHKKCTzybmQNq8gWraWPfzRXqqxNaCK0jx0BESwAIPZ4/s1600/sOPS+Graph1B.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikt5JePMexiHQkUmKGlPvcYJGZWDLXSV3Nv2O0sfpCFMfN5tHxV_D6HRN5o_mLcGEo0eW2hUmhcV9AlVRl0rsZmcS3B72FAYMqHKKCTzybmQNq8gWraWPfzRXqqxNaCK0jx0BESwAIPZ4/s640/sOPS+Graph1B.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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As you can see, the best the Orioles have done over the past 10 seasons is flirt with average production from their first baseman.<br />
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Back in 2003, Jeff Conine was just hanging on and the offensive output was pitiful. Production was buoyed a bit with the second tour of duty of Rafael Palmeiro and the massively underrated Kevin Millar from 2004-2007 (with an occasional assist by Aubrey Huff although he was mainly a DH). 2009-11 saw new lows in bad hitting first baseman with the likes of Aubrey Huff, Ty Wigginton, Garrett Atkins and Derrek Lee.<br />
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The Oriole farm system has been bereft of legitimate first base prospects for many years and they team has tried and failed to patch that hole through free agency with disatrous results at worst and mediocre results at best. Andy MacPhail addressed the issue by trading or claiming off of waivers every corner infieder he could lay his hands on which is why we saw appearances by Rhyne Hughes, Michael Aubrey and Scott Moore over the past few years.<br />
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But finally, some of those MacPhail trades have paid off as Mark Reynolds and Chris Davis have combined to provide slightly above average offensive production at the position with some poor production from Wilson Betemit, Nick Johnson and Joe Mahoney dragging it down.<br />
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Chris Davis is under team control for the next three years and may be the closest thing the Orioles have had to a regular productive first baseman the club has had in years. He's probably not going to be the answer but he's not a disaster. It's not much but it's a start.DempseysArmyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01052985408659519460noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190015479550687316.post-75716974689622030032012-08-21T19:30:00.000-04:002012-08-21T19:30:36.600-04:00Tides vs. Braves: 8/21/12<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9dsYuxBQ5zPYWgWNLysHjo0p4RX5JS2fEfznAJxCELqQRqPVwxDVP5F3Pk9fA7WMZrcMCiGQ0PBfqnHCWPFCrThn-qd9E4TZKSrhcU0sNlSbLxXBvhgiRWY2Y-vb9SKv9HmQYKQ6Xpxs/s1600/P1060994.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9dsYuxBQ5zPYWgWNLysHjo0p4RX5JS2fEfznAJxCELqQRqPVwxDVP5F3Pk9fA7WMZrcMCiGQ0PBfqnHCWPFCrThn-qd9E4TZKSrhcU0sNlSbLxXBvhgiRWY2Y-vb9SKv9HmQYKQ6Xpxs/s320/P1060994.JPG" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">L.J. Hoes<br /></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The Norfolk Tides completely handled the Gwinnett Braves today in Lawrenceville, GA 8-0. Since I felt an acute case of baseball fever coming on this morning, I called out sick and went to the 10:35 AM start. <br />
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The Oriole highlights came early as former Dodger farmhand RF Jamie Hoffman launched a 3-run homer that just barely cleared the left field wall and Braves LF Jose Constanza's leap to give the Tides the 3-0 lead. CF L.J. Hoes' bases loaded single drove in two more in the 4th to give Norfolk the 5-0 lead and the game was pretty much over.<br />
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SP Dana Eveland gave up only 3 hits and struck out 5 over 7 innings and the Braves mounted no real threat at all. Braves' pitching issued 9 walks and walked in the other 3 Tide runs. Again, not the most exciting game to watch.<br />
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On to the individual performances, led by Hoes. He went 1-5 with a walk and reached on a fielder's choice that should have been a hit. He scorched a ball toward right field in the 6th inning but Braves 1B Ernesto Meija reached up and got his glove on it but it was hit too hard for him to hold. Hoffman was on 1st and had to hold up for a beat ot make sure Meija didn't catch the ball. If Hoffman would not have been on base, that would have been a hit for the speedy Hoes. Hoes had good at bats, worked the count and looked poised beyond his 22 years at the plate. He is hitting .369 in August and has maintained good walk rates throughout his minor league career. <br />
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RP Brian Matusz pitched the 8th inning. He gave up no runs but was unimpressive while walking one batter and striking out none. His fastball was missing up out of the zone and his breaking stuff was missing low and outside a lot. He got out of the inning with a couple of sharply hit ground balls that his fielders turned into outs but it was not hard to imagine major league hitter turning those mistakes into hits. He got himself into bad pitcher's counts on three of the four batters he faced. He may need more work.<br />
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2B Ryan Adams looks like I've seen him before. At the plate, he looked relaxed, worked the count and put the ball into play with authority. A great looking hitter and he is hitting .300 with 5 XBHs in August. In the field, he is not smooth and he made an error in the 7th.<br />
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I've never fully understood the enthusiasm for 1B Joe Mahoney. His walk rates are poor, his hit tool is OK and the value is wrapped up in his power as he slugged over .500 over the 2010-2011 in just over 200 games split between Frederick and Bowie. But that power has disappeared in Norfolk this season (.387 SLG in 120 games) and had trouble making solid contact today and could not manage a walk on a day when the G-Braves staff was giving them out freely. He'll be 26 next year and I guess the power could return. But if it doesn't, he's not going to have much value as a prospect.<br />
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3B Brandon Waring has hit 20 or more homers in every season he has played professionally. He walked twice today but his walk rates are just decent. His power is really, really impressive. Fun to watch but hard to imagine how he can help the major league club in the future.<br />
<br />DempseysArmyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01052985408659519460noreply@blogger.com0