Dempsey's Army

The Wisdom of Signing Wilson

2012-01-26T12:36:00.005-05:00

With the signing of Wilson Betemit, the Orioles seem to have found their DH for 2012.

That is a statement made with tongue firmly in cheek but it's not as crazy as you might think. To beat the rotting horse's corpse that I love so well:

                       AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   G   WAR   
2009-2011 Betemit     .284  .354  .467  .821  201  1.5
2009-2011 Guerrero    .295  .332  .458  .790  397  2.5

The signing of Vladimir Guerrero at this time last year was hailed as filling a gaping hole at DH for the O's. Betemit will surely do no worse.

Especially if he's deployed in the correct way. If Betemit is the DH against righties (.817 career OPS against RHP) and, say, Mark Reynolds gets the bulk of DH starts against lefties (.882 career OPS against LHP) with scattered DH at bats for Matt Wieters, Nolan Reimold and others, that doesn't seem to be a bad solution to improve production from that spot in the lineup.

Betemit is billed as a utility infielder but honestly, he's never been a great fielder. Imagine a tick or two below Ty Wigginton and you'll get an idea of what he will look like in the field this season. While he will get some starts int he field, the Orioles will be wise to have him serve primarily as a DH and a pinch hitter. (And as unorthodox as that may sound, I believe that is exactly the plan for him.)

Nor does Betemit create any kind of roster crowding or crisis. The projected members of the roster, position players only, assuming a 12-man pitching staff.

C
Matt Wieters 
Taylor Teagarden

IF
Chris Davis
J.J. Hardy
Mark Reynolds
Robert Andino
Matt Antonelli
Ryan Flaherty
Wilson Betemit

OF
Endy Chavez
Nolan Reimold
Adam Jones
Nick Markakis

This assumes that Flaherty makes the roster at all (no guarantee of that) and I am certainly not counting on Brian Roberts playing for Baltimore in 2012. If Flaherty does not remain with the MLB club, there would be room for Ryan Adams or a resurrected Roberts. This move may signal that a trade is in the works but I hardly think it's necessary based on the current construction of the club.

And considering the price Betemit signed for ($3.25M for 2 years), the 30-year old is virtually a slam dunk to be a good return on investment. (OK, the 2-year commitment was a little weird...) But this signing, if he is to be used the way I expect, makes way more sense and gives the team way more flexibility than the Guerrero and Derrek Lee signings of last offseason.

Merry Christmas!

2011-12-25T07:00:00.001-05:00

Andy MacPhail's Christmas Gift to Baltimore

2011-12-24T09:32:00.000-05:00

The Orioles have plenty of holes to fill this offseason and seemingly every offseason. But there is one critical position that they do not have to fill. Shortstop.

You could make the argument that the rarest commodity in the free agent market this season is a shortstop who can hit and field his position well. (OK, good all-around catchers and starting pitching is probably a rarer commodity.) But thanks to the dealings of former team president Andy MacPhail over the last year, the O's don't have to overpay for that talent now.

Last December, MacPhail dealt a couple of minor league relievers to the Twins for SS J.J. Hardy. For a couple of spare parts, Hardy turned out to be a low-cost, low-risk gamble that paid off big for the O's. Hardy played a good defensive shortstop, posted an .801 OPS and had 57 extra base hits. It was a performance from a Baltimore shortstop that we haven't seen since the early days of the Miguel Tejada era.

Knowing how tight the shortstop market would be after the season, MacPhail and the Orioles signed Hardy to a 3-year extension for a total contract of $22.5M. Given Hardy's age and skillset the contract stacks up very well to what other free agent shortstops are getting this offseaon.

                 AGE   3-year OPS+  3-year WAR total   Total Contract  Yearly Average
J. Reyes          29      120            9.9               $111M          $18.5M
J. Rollins        33       91            9.3                $33M          $11.0M
R. Furcal         34       98            8.2                $14M           $7.0M
Y. Betancourt     30       77           -0.7                 $2M           $2.0M
J.J. Hardy        29       98            8.7              $22.5M           $7.5M

In a market where Ronny Cedeno is now considered a hot commodity and other free agents are going for much more, Hardy's extension looks like a relative bargain.

And unlink some other free agents signed last offseason to play in Baltimore, Hardy actually will be a tradeable commodity come July.

No, Hardy is not the player Reyes is when he's healthy and Hardy certainly has some injury risks of his own but he is very likely to fill the shortstop position until Manny Machado is ready to take over or bring back some other prospects to replentish the farm system. And the Orioles don't have to overpay this offseason to get a competent shortstop.

Thanks, Andy. You had many good moments as GM but Hardy may turn out to be one of your better ones.

The Endy Chavez Signing and The Oriole Free Agency Strategy Thus Far

2011-12-21T06:53:00.001-05:00

The Orioles made it official and announced the signing of veteran outfielder Endy Chavez. The deal is reported to be worth $1.5M with another $500K in incentives.

My enduring memory of Chavez was from a game I saw him play against the Astros in Montreal in 2003. He was manning center field for the Expos and made a couple of really nice plays defensively and stroked an RBI double to tie the game. (The Expos won in the bottom of the 10th as Jose Macias, of all people, hit a walk off homer.)

He's not the fielder he was 9 years ago but he might just be the best defensive outfielder for the Orioles in 2012. His 6.6 UZR/150 score for the Rangers would have led all Oriole outfielders in 2011. His bat is not horrible and he is a decent, if not great, baserunner. As far as 4th outfielder candidates go, Matt Angle and Kyle Hudson are the only players on the roster who could fill that role and I don't think either is ready for that job in 2012 (if ever). Chavez fills a need and he is likely to be worth every penny of the contract the O's pay him.

The signing of Chavez has led to much grumbling from fans who were awaiting a more siginificant signing from the team this offseason. But upon his introduction to the press, Dan Duquette all but said that the O's would NOT be big players in free agency this offseason:

A lot of teams spent a lot of money on those major league acquisitions and didn't get the kind of production they are looking for. Here in Baltimore we have to work smarter to invest our money, so that we getter better bang for our buck. We have to work smarter.

And the thing is, he's right. Say what you will about the acquisitions made this offseason are not exciting but at least they do fill needs. There was nobody to be the backup catcher, they found a good one in Taylor Teagarden. The desperately needed a 4th outfielder, they sign Chavez. The pitching staff, especially the rotation, needs a lot of help. I do not like the Dana Eveland signing but that is an area where the O's need bodies. The low cost gamble on Tsuyoshi Wada is very likely to help the rotation.

More importantly, they haven't taken on much in payroll and they haven't given up anyone from the farm system who is likely to help the MLB club at any time in the future. Nor have they acquired any player who is likely to block any young players/prospects this season. Nor have they given out multi-million, multi-year deals to middling relievers.

No, there have been no trades of the like that brought J.J. Hardy or Mark Reynolds to town. But there have been no silly Vladimir Guerrero or Kevin Gregg signings either. The Orioles are just not going to make a big splash in free agency this offseason. And it won't help them anyway.

Lest we forget, signing Albert Belle or Miguel Tejada didn't exactly make the Orioles perennial winners. One big free agent or two or three won't assure a winning season. Especially with the team Baltimore has right now.

Andy MacPhail brought this farm system out of the abyss but the system still has a long way to go. O's fans don't want to hear about patience after 14 seasons of losing but that's what you're going to need.

If that doesn't work for you, go down I-95 and watch Jayson Werth.

The Crystal Ball 2012: Matt Wieters

2011-12-20T13:56:00.000-05:00

Matt Wieters is finally starting to fulfill the massive promise he showed in the minors.

His bat finally started to come around and he flashed some of that power we expected to see from Day 1. He smacked 22 homers, and easily set career highs in slugging percentage and ISO. I don't think anyone believed that Wieters would be such a good defensive catcher but he delivered Gold Glove caliber defense and has cemented himself as one of the better defensive catchers in the game. No regular delivered such a combination of bat and glove from the catcher position in 2012. (OK, Arizona's Miguel Montero comes close.)

So this is it right? He just keeps getting better and better and multiple MVPs lie in his future. Well, not exactly...

He did only hit .262 last season. He lowered his strikeout rate for the third straight season but his walk rate dipped a bit as well, contributing to his .328 OBP. And he only OPSed .662 against right handed pitchers.

Which is what concerns me. Over the first two seasons of his career, Wieters has hit fairly well against righties while struggling mightily against lefties. This season, while he was posting that .662 OPS against righties he was clobbering lefties to the tune of a 1.124 OPS.

Leaders in wOBA against left handed pitchers in 2011:

wOBA
Bautista         .475
Wieters          .472
Kemp             .462
Napoli           .445
Braun            .443

After struggling against lefties for his first two seasons, Wieters hit them, literally, at MVP levels in 2012.

Which is great...but it screams fluke.

Is Wieters going to keep OPSing 1.124 against lefties going forward. Not a chance. His OPS against lefties prior to last season was sub-.650. There's just no way he can sustain that. He career OPS against righties is .725. There is reason to believe that 2012 will see a slight hiccup and/or regression in Wieters' offensive production.

But there are still reason to believe in the bat. The power surge is likely legit and more in line with what we expected from him all along (.188 ISO in '11, a 60 point jump from the previous year) and the .276 BABIP was probably a little unlucky. With the power likely to keep on an upward clip and a few more balls falling his way, the regression against lefties that is likely to occur can be offset.

The bat is very good for a catcher and I think ultimately he will be an elite hitter but 2012 may be a bit uneven and a struggle for our Gold Glove catcher.

This Week in Chat - 12/19/2011

2011-12-19T07:22:00.001-05:00

Where we distill all the recent baseball chats down to their Oriole essence...

Jason Parks, Baseball Prospectus

Will T. (Cary, N.C.):
Upside of Orioles RHP Parker Bridwell?

Jason Parks:
Could be an innings horse, but he still has a long way to go. He's a Texan, so that helps.

@Lembeck451 (Detroit):
Has Chris Davis officially become Chris Shelton (please say yes, please say yes), or does he have a bounceback in him?

Jason Parks:
He could bounce back, but he's probably a 4A

Tim Dierkes, MLB Trade Rumors

2:08 Comment From Dathan
What are the chances the Cardinals end up with either Adam Jones or Carlos Beltran, and which do you think is the better fit in St. Louis?

2:08 Tim Dierkes:
Jones for sure, but I don't see any indication he's available.

2:16 Comment From DumbBravesFan
Is Prado/Jurrjens (2 arb guys not in Braves' future plans) too much to give up for Adam Jones (a potential cornerstone)?

2:16 Tim Dierkes:
I'd move those two for two years of Jones, but he's not a cornerstone unless you extend him to a huge deal.

2:28 Comment From Lonely Non-Tender list
Who's the best value out there from the recent non-tender list?

2:29 Tim Dierkes:
Hong-Chih Kuo, maybe Luke Scott.

2:58 Comment From Tim
Just to be clear, the Orioles would need to get a better return than Prado/Jurrjens for AJ, correct? At least younger, more controllable players?

2:58 Tim Dierkes:
Yes, I'd want a much different return for Adam Jones as well. We have to get a feel for Dan Duquette though.

2:58 Comment From Omazing
Some Orioles sites are saying there is tons of interest in Luke Scott.. any truth to this?

2:59 Tim Dierkes:
I think Dan Connolly said ten teams called. Certainly makes sense to me, get him for one year and $5MM plus incentives not too far removed from some .500 slugging seasons.

Keith Law, ESPN

Kevin (Jersey)
Profar or Machado? Or are we splitting hairs?

Klaw (1:25 PM)
Machado. But it's not a huge gap. Pretty strong crop of SS prospects right now.

Ethan (Maine)
Why are we hearing nothing about the japenese free agent pitchers Wei-Yin Chen and Iwakuma?

Klaw (1:26 PM)
Haven't we heard Baltimore with Chen? I also assume that we need to get Darvish cleared from the market before those guys get more interest, just because they're second-tier (not just because they're also international FAs).

Michael (San Jose, CA)
Lots of disappointment in Oakland right now for us A's fans? With the emergence of the Rangers and Angels, we're basically the Baltimore Orioles without the nice ballpark.

Klaw (2:08 PM)
But you have competent management. I'm not sure we can say that for Baltimore given ownership's clear intention to meddle.

Alex (NJ)
Keith, O's pitching moves (Eveland, Wada): reasonable gambles to see who might have a decent enough year to stick, or near-guaranteed 5-ish ERA flameouts? Hope for the future obviously lies with Matusz, Britton, and guys still in the minors, but they could do worse than try Wada every fifth day, right?

Klaw (2:20 PM)
I don't see it. Low upside guys in a tough division.

Jason (St Louis)
The no on Palmeiro is because he was a consistent stat builder and not a hof, not because he used peds right?

Klaw (2:21 PM)
Correct. Really never among the best players in his league.

Obscure Oriole Transaction Spotlight: Miguel Socolovich

2011-12-15T18:03:00.000-05:00

Who says the Orioles haven't made any moves?

Name: Miguel Socolovich
Position: RP
Throws: R
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 175
Age: 25

Socolovich is a Venezuelan native who started out in the Red Sox organization and was traded to the White Sox for David Aardsma in 2008.

Although this whole feature is meant to be tongue in cheek, Socolovich is actually an interesting pickup. So much so that Jon Shepherd at Camden Depot mentioned him as a potential target for Baltimore more than a month ago. In 74 AAA innings over the past two seasons, the numbers look like this:

G     IP   K   BB   HR   WHIP   ERA
Socolovich (AAA)  47    74.0 93   43    4   1.50  3.65

That's an 11.3 K/9 rate at AAA which is pretty impressive. He also keeps the ball in the park which is always good. The only thing to be concerned about is his walk rate (although it was better in 2011 than it was in 2010) and that WHIP (which the walk rate is contributing to).

As many questions as there are around the Oriole bullpen this offseason, I actually see no reason why Socolovich might not get a chance to pitch in Baltimore in 2012, assuming he can continue his AAA performance for Norfolk, of course. Having spent parts of the last two season in the IL with Charlotte, I would imagine he will.

Grade: Potential Nugget

This Week in Chat - 12/14/2011

2011-12-14T07:18:00.000-05:00

Where we distill all the recent baseball chats down to their Oriole essence...

Fangraphs After Dark Chat

Comment From Kyle
Guthire and Reimold for Volquez and Alonso. Moldy is underrated, 1.5 WAR in 80-ish games with a .261 BABIP

9:06 Jeff Zimmerman:
To the Brewers , but I agree with Paul that he stays.

9:07 Jeff Zimmerman:
I would keep Volquez for one more season on the potential

9:07 Paul Swydan:
Not sure I see the upside of the Reds acquiring Guthrie.

Comment From Baltimoron
HBT says the Cubs are trying to dump Soriano on the O's. Are the O's so bad that even Soriano could help?

9:10 Paul Swydan:
Probably not, no. But can't blame the Cubs for trying!

9:10 Jeff Zimmerman:
I think Theo want Soriano gone and the Cubs can't dump him. Trade him to a team that has no problems doing it.

Dan Szymborski, FanGraphs.com

12:46 Comment From kyle
zips thoughts on brian matusz?

12:47 Dan Szymborski:
ZiPS has his mean down to an ERA+ of 80, but still sees him as being nearly 1-in-4 of being league-average or better.

12:47 Dan Szymborski:
2011 was pretty much an unmitigated disaster for Matusz.

12:52 Comment From AC
Do you buy that the O's will really bid on Cesepedes? Also what is max you would offer him for contract?

12:53 Dan Szymborski:
I'd go a bit higher than Chapman, but I'd stop before we start talking 8 figures a year. There's a lot of uncertainty. Cespedes projects as a solid 3 win player a number of years, but we have so few Cuban translations and natural uncertainty as to his age.

1:06 Comment From Teddy
What does ZiPS have to say about Zack Britton? Is there a curse on all Orioles' pitching prospects?

1:07 Dan Szymborski:
ZiPS has Britton at 10-12, 4.85.

1:17 Comment From Archer
Dan Duquette noted that Dana Eveland had won 15 games last season between AAA and the Majors (12 in AAA), and that not a lot of lefties could say the same last season. This has to make the Os a huge threat this season, no?

1:18 Dan Szymborski:
Eveland's Baltimore projection is 7-11, 5.44. He's a lousy pitcher.

Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus

RD (NYC):
Could Adam Loewen become an everyday MLB outfielder?

Kevin Goldstein:
No. Could end up a bench guy though.

Keith Law, ESPN

Matt (No Cal)
Do Schoop and Story both end up at 2B and what kind of players do you see them developing into both offensively and defensively? Thanks.

Klaw (12:00 PM)
Schoop is a 3b, Trevor Story stays at ss. Schoop is raw but very young, chance to be an above-average regular or better. I have real questions about Story's bat, but I think he's a legit SS.

Josh (VA)
Thoughts on DD as GM in Baltimore?

Klaw (12:01 PM)
I think this is going to go very poorly. Latest thing I've heard out of there is that, despite an industry trend where teams have decoupled amateur and pro scouting, he's recoupled them in Baltimore because ... that's how they did it in Boston.

Jason (NJ)
The discussion that is being held in my office is that although Bundy's ceiling is higher than Hultzen, it is offset by the ballparks they pitch in. We are using you as the tiebreaker....

Klaw (12:14 PM)
Ballparks affect superficial stat lines, but not ceiling. Bundy is better.

Moki Dugway (Korea)
Who is the safer pick for future success, Machado or Sano?

Klaw (12:14 PM)
Machado.

Mike Newman, FanGraphs.com

5:18 Comment From GTW
Thoughts on Baltimore's pickup of Ryan Flaherty in the Rule 5 Draft today? Projected any better than replacement level?

5:19 Mike Newman:
When really bad utility players go for a couple of million, I love the move. In all honesty, he's an asset as a replacement level, minimum salaried player.

5:35 Comment From Marver
What prospects are you looking forward to seeing in person the most?

5:36 Mike Newman:
In 2012, Josh Bell and Dylan Bundy head that list.

6:04 Comment From Tommy
Thoughts on Matt Antonetti?

6:05 Mike Newman:
I liked him in AAA when I saw him and wrote about his being a guy who should receive another shot. The market for utility infielders was pretty expensive all things considered and the Orioles made a strong signing with very little risk.

Oriole Delve into Japan Again, Sign Tsuyoshi Wada

2011-12-13T12:41:00.001-05:00

The Orioles have reportedly signed NPB pitcher Tsuyoshi Wada. Wada is a soft-tossing lefthanded starter from Japan and will be 31 this season. Quite frankly, that's all I know about him but Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker and FanGraphs.com has a short write up about him here.

I don't know if Wada will work out but given that he will make only $8.15M over the next two seasons, it's the right idea. The Orioles need to get creative to augment their pitching staff and this is a cost effective way to try.

Patrick also posted a link to video of a game Wada pitched in 2010. Here it is. You be the scout! (Remember, 1 km = .62 miles)

And the Japanese commercials are entertaining too. What else are you going to watch in the offseason?

Watch live video from MATRIX CHANNEL on Justin.tv

Luke Scott Shouldn't Be Here to Begin With

2011-12-13T10:15:00.003-05:00

"I should be in Atlanta..."

OF/DH Luke Scott has been non-tendered by the Orioles and is now a free agent.

Scott has been an underrated slugger (in my opinion) for several years. Despite derision from some fans for his "streakiness", he always ended up his seasons as one of the better hitters on the club and did it at reasonable salaries. But a serious shoulder injury has put his future in question and the Orioles did not feel comfortable paying him $6M or more in 2012.

That is an understandable decision. What is less understandable is why Scott was on the club in 2011 and why they have to make this decision in the first place.

I'll never fully understand the free agent strategy during the 2011 offseason. The club signed a mediocre reliever for $10M and a 2-year commitment (I will not speak his name...). They signed not one, but two aging veteran reclamation projects in 1B Derrek Lee and DH Vladimir Guerrero committing more than $15 million on the gamble. (The only signings that kind of made sense were low money deals to SS Cesar Izturis and SP Justin Duchscherer. Neither worked out for the club but they weren't bad risks to provide potential depth.)

I've beaten the horse well past dead explaining how signing Lee in conjunction with Guerrero was unnecessary at best and would block promising (and cheap) prospects like Nolan Riemold at worst.

But lets say that you did want to sign those two and that you felt Guerrero still had enough left in his bat to be a serviceable DH.

Why keep Luke Scott?

Scott was coming off a career season at age 32. His trade value had been and never would be higher. With Lee and Guerrero on board, Scott was going to be pushed to leftfield where he was going to be only a fair fielder in the best of scenarios. The O's had Reimold and Felix Pie to platoon in left. Once you've made those other signings, Scott was a luxury that a rebuilding team could no longer afford.

Surely Scott could have brought back a couple of middling prospects. Maybe a cheap major league reliever. That would not be an ideal scenario but once you've pulled the trigger on Vlad, why not? As it stands now, Scott can sign with any team and the Orioles will receive nothing.

I just don't get it. Sign Lee. Or sign Vlad. Or sign both and trade Scott. But to sign both and keep Scott in 2011? It just didn't make sense. It was almost as if Andy MacPhail was gearing up for a playoff run. But could anyone look at last year's roster and truly believe this was a contending club? It was a stretch to view them as a winning one. There was so much that needed to go right for just a shot at a .500 record. But The Warehouse didn't treat the club as a rebuilding entity. Were they pandering to the fan base? Did they really believe the team was better than it was?

They needed to get some value for a guy that was made redundant by free agent signings but the Orioles refused to sell high.

Non-tendering Scott now makes a lot of sense. But keeping him a year ago, given the other free agent signings, certainly did not.

Orioles Trade for Dana Eveland...

2011-12-09T14:15:00.001-05:00

...but we're not sure why.

The Orioles sent minor leaguers Jarret Martin and Tyler Henson to the Dodgers for LHP Dana Eveland.

First, a look at the prospects the Orioles gave up. OF Tyler Henson is not any kind of prospect to speak of. He will be 24 next season, OPSed .634 in AAA Norfolk last season and throughout his minor league career has shown very little power, bad on base skills and a .263 batting average. He is no defensive whiz either and is basically an org guy, maybe a fourth outfielder someday. No great loss.

LHP Jarret Martin is another story. I've had the chance to watch him a few times in his short career and his stuff is pretty good. His fastball sits in the low 90's and he has an 8.7 K/9 rate over his minor league career. The problem is that he has no idea where the ball is going most nights. For his career he also has a 5.9 BB/9 rate, a 1.53 WHIP and can be completely hittable when he's missing his spots. I watched one such performance against the Rome Braves last season where a very unimpressive Braves lineup shelled him for 6 earned runs in 4 innings. The guy isn't 19, he will be 22 in 2012 and unless he made some kind of quantum leap in terms of his control in Frederick, he projected to be a reliever in my eyes. So I can't get that upset about trading away an A-ball level future reliever.

But did they have to? For Dana Eveland? Eveland is my kind of pitcher in many ways. Lots of grounders and low home run rates are always a good start for a pitcher. But he also walks nearly as many as he strike out (4.5 BB/9, 5.4 K/9), has been very hittable (.808 career OPS against) and outside of 2008 and a short stint with the Dodgers in 2011, has been a bad pitcher.

Can't you find a guy like this on waivers? Or sign a free agent off the scrapheap? (That's how the Dodgers got Eveland...) Do we really need to trade pitcher who might someday help the bullpen?

If Eveland is above replacement level in 2012, I'd be shocked. I will call Dan Duquette a mad genius. But unless there's something here that I don't see, I don't get it at all.

Wrapping Up the Vladimir Guerrero Era

2011-12-06T23:28:00.000-05:00

The Orioles made it official a couple of weeks ago and announced that they were not offering Vladimir Guerrero arbitration this winter.

This was not a big surprise as Guerrero had the worst season of his career and was generally one of the most disappointing free agent signings by the O's in recent years. Of course, most of this was forseen.

Not by the mainstream media who cover the team. His signing was hailed by most of the final cog in what would be a formidable offensive lineup for Baltimore, one that might just lead them to a winning season. Obviously, that was not the case.

But most of my fellow bloggers viewed this move with extreme skepticism or downright outrage. That's not me tooting my own horn (though I certainly hated the signing) because many, many of my colleagues pointed out the same poor logic and risks that went in to bringing Vlad on board.

There was something about Vlad that the fans loved though. At least the concept. Signing a veteran slugger who is on his way to the Hall of Fame seemed sexy and signaled a shift in the teams committment to winning. Unfortunately, that didn't generate results on the field.

It was a divisive signing from the start. I have never received such backlash as I did to my posts (or tweets) opining that Baltimore would be better served, for 2011 and for the future, to let Vlad sign elsewhere and have LF Nolan Reimold get regular playing time instead.

But the O's did sign him. For $8 million, even when it was doubtful that there was any other place for him to play.

The jury is in. It was pretty much a disaster.

How bad was he? Of all the Orioles players who played in more than half of their games, only Felix Pie was worse.

fWAR
Pie     -2.1
Guerrero 0.0
Reynolds 0.3
Lee      0.5
Reimold  1.5

Yes, Vladimir Guerrero was a replacement level player last season. And Baltimore paid him $8M for that.

In more traditional terms, Guerrero failed as well. Billed as a "proven cleanup hitter", Guerrero was dead last in home runs and RBI among Orioles who appeared in at least 100 games. His slugging percentage and ISO was third lowest among Oriole regulars (only Nick Marakkis and Robert Andino proved more punchless). Guerrero, the "proven cleanup hitter" and "RBI machine" failed on all fronts, by any measure you want to use.

(As an aside, Vlad was supposed to have all these magic RBI in his equipment bag but in 14 more games played, he came up 9 RBI short of Luke Scott's 2010 total. Sure, most of us understand that RBI sucks as an individual stat but if you have not been convinced yet, look at this example. Lineup, lineup, lineup. That's what produces RBI, not individual players. Of course, if you want to drive in runs, it also helps if you don't suck as a hitter in general...)

Despite this, Buck Showalter kept trotting him out there and letting him hit cleanup. In 87.5% of the games Guerrero played, he was #4 in your lineup. This fact alone has to make you suspect of Showalter's managing skills.

With Guerrero on the roster (coupled with the signing of Derrek Lee), Reimold was relegated to AAA. Nolan eventually returned from exile and acquitted himself well but I am still not sure we saw exactly what he can or can't do as a majpr leaguer as he only appeared in 87 games. It would have been much more beneficial for Reimold to play in 150+ to see if he has a future in Baltimore.

Finally, Guerrero brought back no prospects at the trading deadline as many fans thought he might. Nobody wanted him before the season and his poor performance did nothing to change that.

So when the team is rumored to be kicking the tires on an aging slugger this offseason, remember old Vlad. Thankfully it's all over now. But it could happen again!

O's Acquire Taylor Teagarden

2011-12-01T18:27:00.000-05:00

The Orioles have finally added a second catcher to the roster as they traded a minor league pitcher and a player to be named later to the Rangers for Taylor Teagarden.

I have spent way too much time over the past 5+ seasons worrying about who the Oriole backup catcher would be but Teagarden might be the best of the bunch over that span.

According to Beyond the Boxscore's 2011 catcher defense ratings, Teagarden ranks 22nd in baseball in just 360 plate appearances. At worst, he is an above average defender and at best, he's pretty damn good behind the plate. In the majors, Teagarden strikes out at Mark Reynolds-like levels but without the sweet double-digit walk rates. But he does have .197 ISO over his 392 MLB plate appearances and 16 homers over that span. A .700 level OPS from your part-time catcher is nothing to sneeze at. Great glove and good pop from a backup catcher? That's pretty much all I'm looking for.

To acquire Teagarden, the Orioles sent RHP Randy Henry and a PTBNL to Texas. I have seen Henry a couple of times during his short Oriole minor league career and I like him a lot. He's got a fastball that sits comfortably in the mid-90's, he has a 8.3 K/9 rate and a 5.00 K/BB rate over his minor league career. But objectively, he'll be 22 next season, only has 15 innings pitched above low-A, has a history of elbow problems and projects to be a setup man at best. (According to Baseball America, the Rangers plan to try him out as a starter but I think reliever is his ultimate destination.) When it comes right down to it, trading a reliever in the low minors for a major league catcher, even a backup, isn't a bad move.

Teagarden will be under team control until after the 2015 season. If this works out, Matt Wieters and Teagarden could be partners for a long time.

Alfredo Simon Getting a Payday?

2011-11-15T15:02:00.001-05:00

Alfredo Simon was acquitted of an involuntary murder charge in the Dominican Republic.

As you probably remember, Simon was accused of shooting a man during a New Year's Eve celebration about 11 months ago. At the time, I thought that was the last we would see of Simon in an Oriole uniform. Evidently, I was wrong as he appeared in 23 games for Baltimore in 2011 (including 16 starts) and was one of the better starters for the O's late in the season.

But that's not why I wrote this blurb. It was because of this phrase that caught my eye and gave me a good chuckle:

According to local news website gentetuya.com, Simon is expected to sign a $12 million contract with the Orioles.

That, on first blush is a completely laughable concept. According to Cot's Contracts, Simon isn't even eligibile for arbitration until 2013. Why would you sign him to any contract before then? They never did this to, say, Jeremy Guthrie. Why take that risk?

Now, Simon was (a bit surprisingly) worth 1.1 WAR according to Fangraphs.com which places his value to the team at $5 million for 2011. Even if you think that FanGraphs is a bit too liberal with it's valuations, Simon was probably worth $3.5-4 million. If you spread that $12 million over Simon's remaining years of control, that's $3 million per season.

Sure, he might be worth that. But would you really want to bet on it? There is no way the Orioles will be looking to lock up the likes of Alfredo Simon, certainly not before he becomes eligible for arbitration.

Dan Duquette: Man of Desperation

2011-11-15T08:09:00.000-05:00

A great post at Et Tu, Mr. Destructo that goes into great detail about the recent hiring of new Orioles GM Dan Duquette and puts it all in context.

I haven't commented on Dan Duquette or the entire GM search for Baltimore but this passage pretty much sums up my cautious optimism:

Duquette, though, is playing with house money. He's not like LaCava. He doesn't have a reputation to lose. His last job was running a sports camp for kids. If he fails, he returns to obscurity, just another good baseball man chewed up and spit out by an out-of-touch organization. No one would blame him for not being the guy who could turn the Orioles around. But if he succeeds, then the bitter, honorable failure of an owner's last desperate gamble for a pennant-winning team came to rest on the shoulders of an outcast who was kicked to the curb and stayed there for 10 years, achieved in the face of the league's two highest payrolls and its two best front offices.

Duquette is a desperate man. He is desperate for this job and is desperate for success. Desperate men will do damn near anything to succeed and are far more willing to do unorthodox things to make it happen. Like Jonathan Bernhardt states, he really has nothing to lose. And that could be really interesting to watch.

O's Unhappy with Ed Smith Stadium Cleanup

2011-11-14T10:11:00.000-05:00

Two years ago, the Orioles and the city of Sarasota, FL had a public lovefest as Baltimore moved their Spring Training operations to the Gulf Coast.

According to Tampa Bay Online, the honeymoon is over:

As the costs of an environmental cleanup at Ed Smith Stadium reach $1 million, the Baltimore Orioles are saying the city of Sarasota needs to pitch in more money.

The Orioles last week requested $420,000 to improve poor drainage at its spring training practice fields, a problem the team blames on an old city dump buried beneath the facility.

City Manager Bob Bartolotta says the Orioles are "trying to make a convoluted argument" to get the city to pay for field upgrades that should have come from a $24 million stadium renovation funded by taxpayers...

The Orioles are calling for that field to be rebuilt and fitted with a system of underground pipes at a cost of about $415,000. The team is also calling for a geotechnical analysis to see if the three other practice fields at the 53-acre ballpark on 12th Street and Tuttle Avenue need drainage systems...

Last December, the city and county signed off on a $975,000 cleanup plan — more than $500,000 of it to drain an underground plume of water polluted with vinyl chloride, a compound used to manufacture plastic.

It sounds really messy, physically and legally.

You would think this would have all been worked out beforehand and maybe it was and they just see it different ways. But I do find it entertaining how quickly the relationship soured between Sarasota and Peter Angelos.

Anyway, none of this will affect Spring Training 2012 (any changes the O's are pushing for will be completed before the end of the year or after Spring Training is over) or the long-term prospects of the Orioles keeping their Spring Training home in Sarasota. Neither side is going to terminate this relationship over $500,000.

2011 Oriole Predictions Revisited

2011-11-10T18:53:00.001-05:00

Better late than never, I figured I would revisit my pre-season predicitons for 2011 for the Orioles. Here they are (were):

If Brian Roberts plays in 130 games, I'm going with 80 wins. If he ends up on the DL, 76 wins.

Wow, I was really optimistic for 2011. Roberts did not play in 130 games, obviously. But the O's fell 7 wins short of my projections. I figured the pitching staff would struggle but not as much as it did. A top of the rotation that included Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Matusz and Zach Britton held much more promise than it delivered.

Zach Britton wins the AL Rookie of the Year. Yeah, Jeremy Hellickson is the odds on favorite but I think Britton comes up on the outside and catches him.

Dead wrong. Britton had his bright spots but Hellickson had a solid season (helped by the defensive team behind him) and is still one of the favorites for the award. Dustin Ackley, Eric Hosmer and others from a strong rookie class.

Adam Jones breaks out this season. A mild breakout, something like a .295/.340/.450. 20 home runs. But a breakout nonetheless.

Jones hit .280/.319/.466 on the year. I predicted a .790 OPS, he OPS'ed .785. He broke out with the power more than with his hit tool (25 homers). But pretty close

I can't predict playing time but Nolan Reimold will finish the season with a higher OPS than Vladimir Guerrero. So will Luke Scott.

One of the few things I was really right on was the Reimold versus Guerrero debate. Reimold finished with a .781 OPS, Guerrero with a .733 OPS. Luke Scott only had a .703 OPS but if healthy, I think he would have hit somewhere north of a .750 OPS. I'm calling this one as correct.

Jeremy Guthrie will, once again, have an ERA lower than his FIP. Probably significantly so.

Not really. Guthrie's FIP was 4.48 (xFIP was 4.47) and his actual ERA was 4.33.

Nick Markakis will hit 40 doubles. Again. Also will have at least a .360 OBP.

This seemed like a real no-brainer before the season but Nick didn't come close to that 40 double mark, only 31 this season. And he rallied for a .351 OBP late in the season. But I continue to have rose colored glasses when it comes to Nick. It was the worst offensive season of his career.

Matt Wieters hits 15 home runs. Anything else he does is anybody's guess.

He hit 22 homers, had his best offensive year yet and became one of the top defensive catchers in baseball.

Luke Scott will OPS north of .850.

Not exactly. Even if healthy, I don't think Scott could have streaked his way to that number.

Josh Rupe doesn't see May 15th in Baltimore. He sees it from Norfolk.

I had forgotten all about Josh Rupe until I reviewed this post. May 5th was his last appearance for Baltimore.

Zach Britton is in Baltimore before May 15th.

Injuries made this a near necessity in early April.

JJ Hardy will be a fan favorite by June 1st.

I'll vote no on this. On June 1st, Hardy was OPSing .730 with 3 homers. The rest of the way he OPSed .817 with 27 homers. He was winning hearts in June and July but not by June 1st.

Matt Albers will outperform most of the Oriole pen while pitching for Boston.

This was definitely true through, oh, right about the All-Star break. But Albers' late season struggles gave him a 4.73 ERA (worse than his mark for the O's in 2010) and although his strikeout numbers improved, he just wasn't very good in Boston.

Mark Hendrickson ends up playing a large role in the Oriole season. Take that as you will.

Hendrickson pitched 11 innings for the O's in 2011. Not. Even. Close.

Mark Reynolds hits 30 homers and has 200 Ks.

Reynolds exceeded even my great expectations by hitting 37 homers but fell just short of the strikeout predicition with 196.

The Saddest State of Affairs

2011-09-29T12:33:00.001-04:00

OK, I'm going to be way out on an island, all by myself, with this opinion. I'm going to be far more alone than any of my opinions on Vladimir Guerrero.

I am not happy that the Orioles knocked the Red Sox from the playoffs last night.

Hear me out...

Firstly, last night was an incredible night of baseball. Putting on my MLB fan and amateur baseball analyst hats, it was amazing to behold. But as an Oriole fan, I couldn't get caught up in the big game atmosphere.

What was in it for the Orioles exactly? They were essentially deciding which of our AL East rivals made the playoffs. And we all got excited about that? Again, as a baseball fan, amazing stuff. As an Oriole fan...what do we take away from that? It's like sitting on the floor and begging for the scraps of Boston and Tampa's big game moment. This was not a big game for the Orioles. The difference between 68 and 69 wins is absolutely nothing. We were just living vicariously through good teams. And I couldn't help but being a little depressed by that state of affairs.

This is all we got out of it: Boston fans are obnoxious and we got to send them home with their tails between their legs. A short term thrill, I'm sure. "Yeah, Boston! This is our house! We ended your season! We get the last word for a change!" Awesome.

But even if you cared one way or another how the Rays/Sox playoff race turned out, I would make the argument that Oriole fans should have preferred Boston in the playoffs.

The knee-jerk reaction to the Red Sox collapse is that this will be a devastating blow to the organization. A death blow. A failure that will result in a changing of the guard and a decline of the team into mediocrity. I would love for that to be the case but that's probably not going to happen.

Boston fans are not clamoring for the heads of Terry Francona and Theo Epstein. Nor is the Boston press. While acknowledging that this collapse was really, really horrible, measured responses are being seen in most corners. No one in the Red Sox management seems to be in danger of being forced out.

Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Kevin Youkilis, Adrian Gonzalez, John Lester, Dustin Pedroia, Clay Bucholz and Jacoby Ellsbury are all coming back. They have prospects popping up all over the end of year Top 20 lists over at Baseball America. This is not the end of the Boston Red Sox. Win or lose, they will fill some holes, resign some guys, heal their injured and be right back among the favorites to take the division in 2012.

Tampa is a formidable organization but they have an Achilles Heel...they have no fans.

Even as dreadful as the Orioles have been, they have outdrawn the Rays 3 of the last 4 years. If the Rays start going to the playoffs on a regular basis...could the fan base start to gel? If you think battling the Yankees and Red Sox is tough, imagine the Rays with a decent source of cash flow. One of the best farm systems in baseball coupled with the cash to keep some of it? Scary.

If we had done this to the Yanks, I could see it being a bigger blow. With the new ownership, heads may have rolled in the Bronx. And they are an aging team with a fair, but not great, farm system. The Sox aren't going anywhere, not yet. The Orioles have enough hurdles to surmount without the Rays being perennial contenders too.

So I don't see the Rays as a fell good story. They aren't cute and cuddly to me. They are a threat. A sleeping giant. They are like Gremlins before they get wet. And I want to crush them like a bug before they become dangerous.

Perhaps I'm wrong about all this. Maybe this will hurt the Sox more than I realize. Maybe the Rays will always have cash flow challenges, no matter how much they win.

But I don't want to look back years from now and realize this game was the turning point that opened the door to a decade long Tampa Bay baseball dynasty. So I hope the Ranger sweep them, in humiliating fashion, right back to the Gulf Coast where they belong.

Guest Post from Donovan Moore: Is Matt Wieters Tired at the Plate?

2011-08-19T09:12:00.000-04:00

Another guest post form Donovan and I thank him. I am also supposed to pass along that the August stats referenced in this post are through August 11th only. Enjoy!

This kind of seems like a funny question… what is being asked? Do we catch glimpses of the young catcher yawning in between pitches? Is he taking afternoon naps in the clubhouse? While those are certainly hilarious images—this is not what I mean.

More and more frequently I have been hearing conjectures and comments about how Matt Wieters’s offensive performance “could” or “would” be “better” if he wasn’t so tired out from catching so many games. On its face, this argument seems like it has the potential to be true. A young guy in only his second full Major League season at the most demanding position on the diamond must need some sort of grace period to get used to the wear and tear that catching puts on his body. The expectations put on Wieters’s expected offensive performance when coming through the ranks in the Minors were so extremely out-of-this-world that for him to have fallen so short of them must demand an explanation of sorts…right?

I decided that it could not hurt to attempt to investigate this subject statistically. To begin, I had to determine which stats I would investigate in order to see if the numbers would lend themselves to the argument that Wieters is in fact tired at the plate. The offensive numbers that I decided to take a look at were batting average (AVG) and slugging percentage (SLG). Batting average is the most basic statistic kept on hitters—what percentage of at bats does this guy get a base knock? However, I needed a statistic to qualify these base knocks--and that’s where SLG comes in. SLG is a measurement of how many total bases a batter gets per plate appearance, on average. The differences between a single, a double, a triple, and a home run are all given equal weight. A guy could have an AVG of .350, but if he only hits singles, it’s highly unlikely that he will be nearly as valuable as a guy who is batting .250, but hits a home run every hit.

When looking at SLG and AVG, it made perfect sense to me that if Wieters was in fact tired, he would get less hits (AVG) and they wouldn’t go as far (SLG). Having established which measures of offensive production will be used is one thing, but how does one measure how tired any given player is on any given day? I devised two ways to attempt to measure Wieters’s level of “tired” in any given game. In order to do this, I categorized every game that Matt has played in the 2011 season as either, “he didn’t have the previous day off,” “he had the previous day off,” or “he had the previous day and at least one more consecutive day before the previous day off”—including the first game of the season and the game immediately following the AS break. I took SLG and AVG numbers that he posted in games when he had the previous day off and compared them to his season base line.

This is what I came up with:

2011 season base line: .256 AVG .391 SLG

2011 “he had the previous day off”: .254 AVG .377 SLG

2011 “he had the previous day+ off”: .277 AVG .556 SLG

The only number among these that look anomalous is the .556 SLG when Matt has had more than one day off in a row. However, the other fishy number that goes along with having more than one day off for Wieters is his BABIP (batting average on balls in play). In these games, Wieters has a .357 BABIP. Given his LD% (line drive rate) in these games, his expected BABIP is .334. The couple of extra hits on these days have simply been a couple of extra line drives falling in for doubles. Wieters’s season LD% is 18.2 (for an expected BABIP of .302). His LD% in these games is 21.4%. He is outperforming his expected BABIP by .023 on during these games. During the season as a whole he is underperforming his expected BABIP of .302 by -0.016 with a .286 mark. Given the fact that these games where he’s been sufficiently rested have only amounted to 14 at bats for Wieters, I am pretty comfortable saying that the spike in SLG is due in part to small sample size, and in part to the fact that his BABIP (largely a “luck” statistic) is just simply higher on these days. Simply stated: Wieters have just been luckier in these 14AB than he has been during the rest of the season.

So, Matt is not performing phenomenally better on days after he has been rested or had a break. The other way to measure whether he is tired at the plate or not is to compare his season statistics per month. If he is tiring out over time, we should see a decline here. This is what I came up with after doing so:

April:  .260AVG /.493 SLG



May:    .278AVG /.344 SLG



June:   .247AVG /.383 SLG



July:   .235AVG /.376 SLG



August: .262AVG /.357 SLG

…or graphically:

Wieters AVG has more or less been stable monthly. The only number that really sticks out here is his .493 SLG in April. One could argue that after slugging the crap out of the ball in the first month of the season, Matt just got tired. However, I feel pretty safe saying that if Wieters truly was tired that the drop off in SLG would be steady instead of being drastic one month and then rebounding slightly again. I’m not comfortable saying that one outlier has any statistical significance.

The conjecture that Wieters is tired at the plate makes perfect sense on its face. However the stats just simply do not lend themselves to this argument whatsoever. Who knows whether this level of production will persist throughout his career, or if there is a big break out on the horizon for the Orioles’ young catcher? Either way, if he can maintain his current level of defense, he really doesn’t need to hit very much at all to be a valuable player.

Guest Post at MASNSports.com: There's No Defense

2011-08-02T11:23:00.000-04:00

While my posts here are few these days, I am still posting over on the Orioles Buzz blog at MASNSports.com. This last post was about the woeful Oriole defense. Enjoy?

Guest Post from Donovan Moore: Freaky Friday Swap - The Luck of the Starting Pitcher

2011-08-01T09:09:00.000-04:00

Hello again. This is yet another guest post by Donovan Moore, who I again thank profusely for giving some of his effort to keep some new content on here until I get back on track. Donovan gave this to me on Friday evening but I was working all weekend and did not see it until this morning. So any outdated references are completely my fault. But the meat of this post remains relevant...and fun.

It’s officially that time of year in baseball when following the Baltimore Orioles has become something that legitimately just really kind of gets you down. Posts about how bad the Orioles are playing aren’t particularly interesting to write. Lately, that’s about all there has been to write about—and consequently that’s all there has been to read about. As someone who not only writes about the Orioles but also reads a great deal about them as well, I have decided that at least in the immediate time being I am going to try to shift focus in the blog-O-sphere away from a tone of sulking, whining, and second-guessing. I’m not starting any sort of campaign against negative writing, because really the bottom line is that when the team one writes about is a really bad team, often times a disheartened reader would like to read someone write the angry things that he is himself thinking. I am also not attempting to write with a tone of seeming like I think that I am better than anyone who is writing negative things about the Orioles. The team is bad…in pretty much almost every way. We get it. I am not refuting it.

In the next couple of days, the non-waiver trade deadline will come and go and either the Orioles will make a few swaps, or they won’t. After the Orioles either make a couple of deals—or not—there will be a flurry of posts about the trades they managed to pull off, the treades they didn’t manage to pull off, and the trades that they didn’t manage to even look into (Colby Rasmus?). It’s really sort of difficult to not get sucked into the same day-to-day moaning and groaning that seems to come along with covering this Orioles team, however in order to do so, let’s imagine an alternate reality (you’ve got my attention, now…)!

This alternate reality is not one where the Orioles are actually a very good team, because—well I am not trying to hurt anyone’s brain just quite yet. This alternate reality is one where mainstream baseball recognizes the complete uselessness of the W/L statistic for pitchers! This idea came to mind when, not just but a few days ago, the on-air announcers for the Orioles game mentioned that the Orioles have scored nine runs or more six times this year, and that Arrieta had been the starting pitcher four of those times. This game became the seventh time the Orioles scored nine or more runs—and Arrieta was the starting pitcher again.

I would assume that any person reading this blog is already of the opinion that the W/L statistic for pitchers (particularly starting pitchers) is almost completely useless. The point of this post is not to argue this point. The point of this post is to demonstrate through example that the W/L statistic is rooted pretty deeply in luck. How will this be accomplished? Well, I am going to pull off a Freaky-Friday-type swap of the luck of Jeremy Guthrie and the luck of Jake Arrieta. Again, I am not formulating this as any sort of logical argument for or against the W/L statistic—I am merely using my magical luck-swapping skills in a demonstration purely for the enjoyment and excitement of onlookers. Let me also say that my intention is not to pick on Jake Arrieta. I chose these two pitchers for reasons that are pretty obvious. Jeremy Guthrie in this season (and really in other past seasons, too) has suffered from poor run support and terrible bullpen intervention. Despite the fact that he is pitching to a very respectable 4.33ERA, 4.36FIP, and 4.31xFIP he is leading THE ENTIRE MLB in losses (4-14). This really just does not seem fair at all. The won/loss record of a starting pitcher is typically the first one any person hears that is associated with the given pitcher. Guthrie’s 4-14 is simply not a good reflection at all of how he has pitched in 2011. On the other hand, there is Jake Arrieta. Arrieta is not the most lucky pitcher in the MLB or AL, but he does in fact receive the highest run support of any starting pitcher on the 2011 Orioles (Guthrie gets the lowest). For this reason, he is the obvious choice to be Guthrie’s counterpart in this Freaky-Friday-type swap. Arrieta’s current won/loss record is 10-7. He boasts a 5.12ERA, 5.28FIP, and a 4.31xFIP. These numbers are not awful by any measure, but they are worse than Guthrie’s—even though he mysteriously has a much healthier looking 10-7 won/loss record. Additionally (as of 7/28), each pitcher has made 21 starts on the year, with 11 of them being “quality” starts (6IP or more with 3 or less ER). Quality starts are a pretty good measure of what sort of chance a starting pitcher has given his team to win—with obvious exceptions, such as pitching 5 perfect innings only to get injured and leave the game.

Okay…time to wave the magic wand.

Bizarro Guthrie: 12-8 W/L record
Bizarro Arrieta: 5-12 W/L record

In order to achieve these figures, all I did was match up Guthrie and Arrieta’s starts (numbered 1-21) to each corresponding start and swap out their pitching performances in order to come up with a W, L, or nd. The bullpen performances after each of the pitchers left the game was left the same, as were the offensive performances of the Orioles.

This is quite obviously not a perfect measure because it fails to take into account many important factors that are impossible to adjust for. For instance, it is not exactly fair to correspond Arrieta’s performance against Seattle with Guthrie’s performance against Boston—but this is the best we’ve got without any actual magic.

A couple interesting things that I came across while plowing through all of the numbers for each of the 21 games that these two men have started in 2011:

Arrieta has only pitched into the 7th inning four times this year. He has not pitched past the 7th once.

Guthrie has one win stemming from a non-quality start. Arrieta has three.

Guthrie has eight (EIGHT!?!?) losses or non-decisions in a quality start. Arrieta has only one.

Due to poor run-support and bad performances by the bullpen, Jeremy Guthrie (the better pitcher of the two) has a far poorer W/L record than Jake Arrieta. 4-14 and 10-7 really do appear to be worlds apart—and neither truly reflects the true performances of the pitcher that they are assigned to. Arrieta has been luckier than your average bear, while Guthrie has been unluckier. If there were somehow a way to make W/L a fair measure of the performance of any given starting pitcher, each of these gentlemen would have their mark sitting somewhere between what it is now, and what their bizarro counterpart’s mark is.

Unfortunately, there is not really a way to make this statistic fair—it relies too heavily on things that are out of the control of the starting pitcher. Guthrie’s 14 losses lead all of the Majors. Given Arrieta’s luck, Guthrie’s 12 wins would be third best in the AL.

Donovan Moore: What is Jeremy Guthrie’s True Trade Value?

2011-07-21T14:33:00.000-04:00

Thanks to Donovan Moore for another guest post!

With the trade deadline coming in just a matter of weeks, talks between potential trade partners will almost certainly heat up quite soon. The Orioles have already pulled the trigger on one small deal. With Hardy newly locked up through 2014, and Luke Scott fatally wounded, it would seem as though the Orioles’ only viable trade chips for 2011 are pitchers. Personally, I am a fan of having a fire sale that would have every Oriole that wouldn’t be a part of the next winning team up on the block. The problem with that however is that the MacPhail regime seemingly isn’t ready to go into full rebuilding mode. Andy’s contract expires at the end of the 2011 season, and it doesn’t bode well for his chances of contract renewal if he admits defeat right at the end of his first tenure.

The Orioles are not having a fire sale in 2011. The Orioles will very likely just make a few low risk/low reward swaps such as the one where they parted with dear old Nick Green (who?) for some guy who throws baseballs with his left hand. With that being said however, let’s take a look at just exactly how much the Orioles should be asking in return if they were to wise up and deal Jeremy Guthrie.

Unless Jeremy Guthrie suddenly turns into a 3-4 WAR pitcher (career average of ~2.2 WAR/year), he will never be more valuable than he is right now. He was more valuable yesterday than he is today, and even more so the day before that—but his arbitration years are almost over. Using a trade value calculator put together by Sky Kalkman of Beyond the Box Score, I have effectively estimated exactly how much value Guthrie has as of today.

The 2011 numbers have obviously been halved, seeing that the 2011 season is roughly halfway through. I estimated that Guthrie will post 1.2 WAR in the second half—because he posted 1.2 WAR in the first half. I used a going rate of $4.8M/WAR for 2011, and given the figures, estimated that Guthrie will have an excess value of ~$2.9M for the remainder of 2011. 2012 is Guthrie’s last arb year, meaning that he should command a raise to roughly 80% of his WAR value. For 2012, I used a going rate of $5.0M/WAR, and used Guthrie’s career WAR average (2.2) to estimate a 2012 salary of $8.8M. Given the going rate of $5.0M/WAR, in 2012 I have estimated that Guthrie will generate ~$2.2M of excess value. Add in the fact that I have estimated that Guthrie will be a Type B free agent (+$2.5M in draft compensation value), and his grand total of excess value through 2012 is ~$7.6M.

Notice the number of times I used the word “estimate” in the preceding paragraph. Without owning a crystal ball, it is not possible to know with any sort of certainty what Guthrie’s true value will be through the 2012 season, but $7.6M is very likely a fairly accurate estimation.

So… what type(s) of prospect(s) would come back in a trade where the excess value on one side is $7.6M? With much thanks to Victor Wang’s extensive research on prospect values it is possible to put a dollar amount on the worth of different types of prospects:

Obviously the only way to truly know the value of a prospect is to see whether he pans out or not…but that defeats the whole purpose of obtaining a player while he is still a prospect. The hope is that you have bought cheap and that you will be rewarded handsomely when the prospect pans out—but not every prospect does, and for that reason, Wang’s research has incorporated the possibility of any given type of prospect busting. The dollar amount put to any given type of prospect is an average of future values of all of the prospects in that category.

So in order to break even any potential trade for Guthrie, the Orioles would need to get back a Grade B hitter ($5.5M) + a Grade C pitcher 22 or younger ($2.1M). Given MacPhail’s affinity for pitching prospects, maybe he would look to get back a Grade B pitcher ($7.3M) + a Grade C hitter 23 or older ($0.5). These would be instances where the Orioles set themselves up to break even on a deal for Guthrie—but if offered anything more than these examples, they should definitely jump right on it.

Guest Post: Looking Back, Looking Forward

2011-07-14T20:44:00.000-04:00

With work and real life robbing me of my blogging time, a kind reader, Donovan Moore, offered to contribute a piece. I told him it didn't have to be too ambitious but he submitted a mini-thesis looking back and the first half of the Orioles' season and some predictions of things to come. Thanks, Donovan! Enjoy...

The Orioles have lost the last seven games in a row, 12 of the last 13, and 20 of the last 26. It almost seems like an eternity ago that the O’s were hovering right around .500 and playing decent ball… because when the wheels fall off like they have in the past few weeks, time really seems to just drag on and on and on.

The Orioles opened the 2011 season with a three game sweep against the defending AL East champion Tampa Bay Rays. Afterwards, the O’s came home and took two out of three from the Detroit Tigers, and then handed the 2010 AL Champion Texas Rangers their first loss of the season. The energy in Baltimore was palpable, and for one week fans knew what it felt like to cheer for a winner. The overwhelming success was short-lived however, as the Yankees, Indians, and Twins handed our beloved Orioles six straight losses—and everything was back to normal.

The Orioles went on to go 12-13 in April, 12-16 in May, 11-14 in June, and are currently 1-9 in July. That makes for a total of 36-52—16 games under .500.

The 2011 season has certainly been a story of a quirky cast of characters that I feel like I have gotten to know personally during their time with the team. In order to properly review the first half of the season, it is necessary to look at each player individually and assess what they have done this season for the Orioles.

Pitchers (Graph of values)

Here you can see the value measured in fWAR of every oriole pitcher to take the hill this season. Guthrie and Britton are in the lead for starters, and Johnson and Uehara are the only relievers to post positive fWAR values besides Simon (0.2fWAR) and Hendrickson (0.1fWAR) in his one appearance so far.

Jeremy Guthrie

As a starter 3-11 114IP 4.26ERA 4.12FIP 4.11xFIP 5.84K/9 2.37BB/9 2.47K/BB 1.33WHIP

As a reliever 0-1 4.1IP 2.08ERA 3.19FIP 4.54xFIP 8.31K/9 4.15BB/9 2K/BB 1.15WHIP

Overall 1.5fWAR

Guthrie’s numbers in 2011 so far are pretty in line with his career numbers. He is throwing a ton of innings, and at this rate will hit the 200IP plateau for the third straight year. The only curious thing about his numbers so far this year is that for the first time in his big league career, Guthrie is not out-performing his peripherals. The fact that Guthrie is able to consistently do this is a rarity that has been written on time and again, but just as there is no clear reason as to why he has been able to do it repeatedly, there is no clear reason as to why he is not doing it so far in 2011.

ZiPS for the second half: 5-6 92IP 4.50ERA 4.37FIP 5.58K/9 2.45BB/9 2.28K/BB 1.32WHIP

Chris Tillman

2-3 48IP 4.69ERA 3.60FIP 4.86xFIP 6K/9 3.75BB/9 1.6K/BB 1.60WHIP

Overall 0.9fWAR

Tillman pitched in the Major League rotation until May 30 when he was optioned to AAA Norfolk. He had his ups and downs up in the bigs in 2011, but in the end he still couldn’t cut it. It’s hard to believe that it’s only been about two years since Tillman was down in Norfolk posting a 9.92K/9 with a 2.70ERA to boot. He’s got a lot of work to do if he ever wants to reclaim the status of elite prospect, and he’s certainly not on the way to doing so--posting a subpar line of 3-2 4.30ERA 5.35FIP and only 5.2K/9 since being banished to Norfolk this year.

Zach Britton

6-7 104.1IP 4.05ERA 3.97FIP 3.88xFIP 5.52K/9 3.36BB/9 1.64K/BB 1.36WHIP

Overall 1.5fWAR

Rookie Zach Britton burst onto the scene early in 2011, getting the call to the Major League rotation when Matusz hit the DL before the season was ever underway. In his first couple of months, Britton turned even his harshest critics into his biggest fans--posting a 2.84ERA in May and a 3.00ERA in June. Britton, however has come crashing back down to earth, not earning a victory in a start since June 8^th and before that May 1^st. After allowing 7ER without even getting out of the first inning in his only start in July, Britton was optioned down to AA Bowie. Expect to see the spry lefty back up in the bigs after about 20 days—or the amount of time that it takes to cut his service time enough to put off his first year of free agency.

ZiPS for the second half: 3-5 69IP 5.09ERA 4.38FIP 5.61K/9 4.04BB/9 1.39K/BB 1.61WHIP

Jake Arietta

9-6 97.1IP 4.90ERA 4.92FIP 4.33xFIP 7.12K/9 4.44BB/9 1.6K/BB 1.4WHIP

Overall 0.4fWAR

Jake Arietta started the season in the Major League rotation for the first time in his career—and has stuck there so far. Arietta has shown flashes of his potential this season, and has been the most consistent starter for the O’s other than Guthrie. His walk totals are still entirely too high for him to have any sort of overwhelming success in the Majors, however it is nice to see that so far in 2011, his strikeout numbers are more in line with what he did in the minors –because last year they just weren’t anywhere close (4.66K/9 in 2010 versus 7.12K/9 in 2011 so far). And, of course this wouldn’t be a blurb about Arietta without bringing up a guarded concern for those annoying bone chips in his elbow that flare up once in a while—only for him to claim adamantly that he can deal with them by simply stiffening his upper lip.

ZiPS for the second half: 4-6 71IP 5.20ERA 4.73FIP 6.46K/9 4.69BB/9 1.38K/BB 1.59K/BB

Brad Bergesen

As a starter- 1-6 48.1IP 5.59ERA 3.89FIP 4.58xFIP 5.4K/9 2.79BB/9 1.93WHIP

As a reliever- 0-0 17IP 5.82ERA 4.72FIP 3.60xFIP 6.35K/9 2.65BB/9 2.4K/BB 1.18 WHIP

Overall 0.7fWAR

Bergesen too cracked the starting rotation at the onset of the 2011 season, however he didn’t stick there. Beregsen struggled as a starter and was optioned back and forth from AAA Norfolk every five minutes until he was recalled for the last time on June 18^th to serve as a member of the bullpen. Since joining the relief corps, Bergesen has been pretty much the same exact pitcher he was when he was starting—not good.

ZiPS (these are clearly for him as a starter—which he very likely will not ever be again unless as an emergency/spot starter) for the second half: 3-5 68 IP 5.03ERA 4.50FIP 4.79K/9 2.65 BB/9 1.8 K/BB 1.46WHIP

Brian Matusz

1-4 25.2IP 8.77ERA 7.4FIP 5.07xFIP 6.31K/9 3.86BB/9 1.64K/BB 1.99WHIP

overall -0.5fWAR

Brian Matusz started the season on the DL with an intercostal strain, and now his velocity has almost completely left him. Matusz used to put on pitching performances that mainstream media outlets used to hail as “Masterful,” however recently the only thing Matusz has been a master of is breaking my heart into little tiny pieces. I had the misfortune of watching him rehab at A+ Frederick on his way back from injury, and you had to be blind not to see red flags everywhere. Instead of missing bats, he was consistently missing the strike zone. When he was getting hit (which was often) he was getting hit HARD. Luckily for him, most of the hard hits went right at people, and he escaped with only allowing 1ER in 4IP. Once back in the majors, his fastball that used to break into the low 90s on occasion was sitting at 86-87—and he was paying dearly for it. Since being optioned to AAA Norfolk on July 1^st, Matusz has allowed 6ER in 11IP.

Chris Jakubauskas

As a starter – 2-2 27.1IP 6.91ERA 4.93FIP 4.53xFIP 6.59K/9 3.95K/9 1.67K/BB 1.72WHIP

As a reliever– 0-0 15.2IP 5.74ERA 6.6FIP 4.84xFIP 4.6K/9 4.02BB/9 1.14K/BB 1.79WHIP

Overall -0.1fWAR

What is there to really say about Chris “Jabberwalky” Jakubauskas? He was brought in to add pitching depth to the team, and he’s provided just-under replacement level production thus far in the bigs. It’s a pretty sad state of affairs in Baltimore though when a guy like Jakubauskas is called on for a spot start, and sticks in the rotation for 6 starts.

ZiPS for the second half: 1-3 30IP 5.40ERA 5.09WHIP 5.1K/9 3.3BB/9 1.55K/BB

Mitch Atkins

0-0 7.2IP 8.22ERA 7.39FIP 4.44xFIP 4.7K/9 1.17BB/9 4K/BB 2.09WHIP

Overall -0.2fWAR

Atkins was another off-season depth signing. Does anyone want to guess what organization he spent his entire career playing for pre-2011? I’ll give you a hint: think “who is the Oriole’s GM?” Atkins is very likely a career minor leaguer, and if he is given the ball every five days in the bigs, he will very likely continue to pitch like one.

ZiPS for the second half: 2-4 43IP 6.49ERA 5.89FIP 6.07K/9 3.77BB/9 1.61K/BB 1.63WHIP

Alfredo Simon

As a starter – 0-1 4.2IP 5.79ERA 4.46FIP 5.71xFIP 1.93K/9 5.79BB/9 0.33K/BB 2.36WHIP

As a reliever – 1-2 21.1IP 4.64ERA 3.57FIP 3.94xFIP 7.17K/9 2.95BB/9 2.43K/BB 1.50WHIP

As an outlaw – 1.0ASM (Arrests on Suspicion of Murder)

Overall 0.2fWAR

I’m fairly certain that the Orioles didn’t plan on having Simon available to pitch this season--but as it turns out he was--and they needed the warm body desperately. It didn’t take long after his return, for the Orioles to add Simon to their repertoire of roughly replacement level nobodies that they call the bullpen. Hey! He even made a start, too! Cool!

ZiPS for the second half: 1-1 19IP 4.74ERA 4.06FIP 6.16K/9 3.32BB/9 1.86K/BB 1.42WHIP

Jason Berken

1-2 29.1IP 5.83ERA 5.41FIP 3.98xFIP 8.9K/9 3.63BB/9 2.42K/BB 1.60WHIP

Overall -0.3fWAR

These are highly disappointing overall numbers for a guy that last year looked like he would be a force to be reckoned with in the bullpen for the O’s. Berken won a vacation to Norfolk, VA on May 21^st and he pitched well enough (3.86ERA, 3.63FIP) to be recalled on June 15^th. Since being recalled, Berken has pitched to roughly a 3.00ERA.

ZiPS for the second half: 1-2 30IP 4.80ERA 4.19FIP 7.2K/9 3.3BB/9 2.18K/BB 1.47WHIP

Mike Gonzalez

1-1 31.1IP 5.46ERA 5.57FIP 4.12xFIP 8.62K/9 4.31BB/9 2K/BB 1.69WHIP

Overall -0.4fWAR

Gonzalez was um… not exactly a fan favorite after he pitched to a 7.89ERA in April and May combined, all the while enjoying the second year of a lucrative contact to be the shut-down closer for this Baltimore club. I remember back in May when calls for Gonzalez’s head on a platter were commonplace. Gonzalez however pitched to a 1.64ERA in June, and he has been all but banished to exclusively low leverage situations. Every time I eye with envy Gonzalez’s numbers from 2004 with Pittsburg (3-1 43.1IP 1.25ERA 1.60FIP 11.42K/9 1.29BB/9), I can hardly bring myself to believe that our Gonzalez is even the same human being.

ZiPS for the second half: 1-1 23IP 4.70ERA 4.31FIP 9.39

Kevin Gregg

0-1 34.1IP 3.41ERA 4.68FIP 4.73xFIP 7.34K/9 5.5BB/9 1.33K/BB 1.49WHIP

Overall -0.2fWAR

Introducing Kevin Gregg, the below-replacement-level closer of your 2011 Baltimore Orioles!! I am pretty sure Gregg made good on his entire stupid contract when he tried to punch out David Ortiz. Gregg’s ERA has been serviceable in the first half—but don’t expect to see the same result in the second half without some serious luck. With a FIP and xFIP both nearing 5, a sky-high walk rate, and a 1.49WHIP, Gregg is bound to crash back down to earth soon. Despite what the television announcers for the Orioles say, there is no such thing as a closer that works better under pressure by giving up hits and walks before he finally escapes in a jaw dropping tightrope act—there are just bad pitchers, and Kevin Gregg is one of them.

ZiPS for the second half: 2-2 28IP 4.50ERA 4.03FIP 6.75K/9 3.54BB/9 1.91K/BB 1.46WHIP

Jim Johnson

5-2 52.1IP 2.75ERA 2.94FIP 3.11xFIP 6.02K/9 1.72BB/9 3.5K/BB 1.18WHIP

Overall 1.0fWAR

Jim Johnson leads all AL relievers in IP—by a margin of 5.1 innings, too—and is 8^th in fWAR for AL relievers (Incidentally, Gonzalez is dead last in this category, and Berken is second-to-dead-last). J.J. is a bright spot on a team where bright spots are few and far between. My only worry is that all of those innings will catch up to him, and he’ll either stop being available as much, or won’t be nearly as effective as he keeps his arm from falling off with tape and glue.

ZiPS for the second half: 5-2 29IP 3.72ERA 3.30FIP 6.21K/9 2.48BB/9 2.5K/BB 1.31WHIP

Koji Uehara

1-1 40IP 2.03ERA 2.91FIP 2.45xFIP 11.7K/9 1.8BB/9 6.5K/BB 0.75WHIP

Overall 0.7fWAR

Koji is pretty much awesome, and if I had a party I would totally want him and his sideburns there. Although sis impressive 6.5K/BB leads all AL relievers— it is not nearly as impressive as 2010’s 11.0K/BB--but I’ll sure as hell take it. A quick glance at the leaderboards for AL relievers shows that Koji leads in WHIP (0.75), and K/BB (6.50), is 2^nd in BAA (.155), 3^rd in xFIP (2.45), 5^th in BB/9 (1.8), and 6^th in K/9 (11.7). I have not yet ruled out magic as the source of Koji’s awesomeness. For some mysterious reason, ZiPS for Koji’s second half of 2011 aren’t available… let’s hope this isn’t a bad omen…

Pedro Viola

0-0 3.2IP 9.82ERA 13.05FIP 5.28xFIP 9.82K/9 4.91BB/9 2K/BB 2.18WHIP

Overall -0.2fWAR

Viola has posted decent numbers at AA this year (2.25ERA 3.31FIP), however he just hasn’t been able to have that translate into Major League success. There are some pretty legitimate concerns such as his control, but we’ll see what the latter half of 2011 has in store for this young lefty.

ZiPS for the second half: 1-2 23IP 6.65ERA 5.44FIP 6.65K/9 5.09BB/9 1.31K/BB 1.83WHIP

Clay Rapada

0-0 12.1IP 7.30ERA 5.47FIP 3.73xFIP 9.49K/9 4.38BB/9 2.17K/BB 1.54WHIP

Overall -0.4fWAR

Rapada really isn’t as bad as his numbers show he has been in 2011. Rapada should, however never be allowed to toe the rubber against a right-handed batter. His splits reveal a 1.76ERA and 13K against lefties this year. With how thin the O’s bullpen has been stretched this year however, Rapada ended up being used against righties on occasion and the result was almost always catastrophic (8ER allowed in 1.2IP). Through little fault of his own, Rapada was outrighted to AAA Norfolk on July 1^st.

Josh Rupe

0-0 14.1IP 5.65ERA 8.19FIP 4.8xFIP 4.4K/9 3.77BB/9 1.17K/BB 1.53WHIP

Overall -0.3fWAR

Rupe was another depth singing in the offseason, and this one just really didn’t work out well. In 32.1IP since accepting an assignment to AAA Norfolk early on this year, Rupe has posted a 6.40ERA and 4.19FIP. Don’t expect to see him back in Baltimore orange and black.

Troy Patton

Overall 0.0fWAR

0-0 2.1IP 7.71ERA 7.24FIP 3.67xFIP 11.57K/9 3.86BB/9 3K/BB 1.29WHIP

Patton is a legitimate Minor League talent that just hasn’t been given the proper opportunity to make his mark in the Majors. That’s more than can be said for half of the clowns in the O’s bullpen, so it’s puzzling as to why Patton hasn’t been given much of a crack at it. In 42.1IP in AAA in 2011, Patton has posted a dominant 1.91ERA with a 2.87FIP to go along with it.

Jeremy Accardo

3-3 32.1IP 5.29ERA 5.00FIP 4.87xFIP 5.57K/9 4.73BB/9 1.18K/BB 1.67WHIP

Overall -0.2fWAR

Accardo was a reclamation project that Mister MacPhail seems to have abandoned—for good reason. Accardo was outrighted to AAA Norfolk on June 22^nd to make room to recall Brad Bergesen. Don’t expect to see Accardo back up in Baltimore any time soon—that is unless the Orioles get even more desperate than they were to keep him up here for so long in the first place.

Mark Hendrickson

0-0 2.1IP 3.86ERA 2.10FIP 2.10xFIP 3.86K/9 0BB/9 1K/BB 1.29WHIP

Overall 0.1fWAR

I wouldn’t be surprised if Hendrickson ends the season with a negative fWAR, however it’s hilarious to me that in one appearance he has already been more valuable than Brian Matusz, Mitch Atkins, Jason Berken, Mike Gonzalez, Kevin Gregg, Troy Patton, Pedro Viola, Clay Rapada, Jeremy Accardo, and Josh Rupe have been all season long. If only “professionalism” and “veteran presence” could win ball games.

ZiPS for the second half: 1-2 31IP 4.94ERA 4.07FIP 5.81K/9 2.61BB/9 2.22K/BB 1.45WHIP

Position Players

Here you can see the value measured in wRC+, UZR(FRAA for catchers), and fWAR for the Orioles’ position players in the first half of 2011. This graph does not overstate how bad Reynolds has been with the glove.

Matt Wieters

78G .264/.322/.406 .728OPS 8HR 34RBI .323wOBA 100wRC+ 5.0FRAA

Overall 2.3fWAR

What is there really to be said about the Switch Hitting Jesus himself? Well, probably that right now he’s hitting at a league average level according to wRC+, but he is posting a 2.3 fWAR. That’s right, the guy touted as being “all-bat” that had questions surrounding him concerning whether or not he could even stick at catcher is now among the elites at the position. In fact, his 5.0 Fielding Runs Above Average in the first half leads all AL catchers. The reality is that if Wieters continues to put up defensive numbers like this, he’ll really never need to hit… but wouldn’t it be cool if he did?

ZiPS for the second half: .270/.337/.411 .728OPS 7HR 33RBI .331wOBA

Craig Tatum

11G .304/.393/.348 .741OPS 0HR 3RBI .336wOBA 109wRC+ 0FRAA

Overall 0.2fWAR

Tatum’s .304AVG is supported by an unreasonably high .389BAIP--hence why ZiPS have him hitting .225 in the latter half of the season. Overall, Tatum has done a fine job backing up Wieters at the Catcher position, posting average defensive numbers to go along with silly offensive totals.

ZiPS for the second half: .225/.278/.303 .581OPS 1HR 11RBI .262wOBA

Robert Andino

68G .263/.335/.316 .651OPS 1HR 7RBI .295wOBA 81wRC+ +0.2UZR

Overall 0.6fWAR

Andino has done a nice job filling in where necessary this year—even going on a tear enough to hit leadoff for a bit. However, since his numbers have come crashing back down to earth, and it’s becoming evident that he will probably never reach what was once thought to be his potential. In general, if a player is so devoid of power that his SLG is lower than his OPB, he better be a wizard with the glove or a terror on the base paths. Andino is neither.

ZiPS for the second half: .247/.296/.364 .660OPS 4HR 17RBI .293wOBA

Blake Davis

11G .259/.375/.333 .708OPS 0HR 2RBI .319wOBA 97wRC+ -0.7UZR

Overall 0.0fWAR

Davis wasn’t exactly knocking down the door to the bigs from Norfolk, but he was called up when Ryan Adams was optioned down. He has been exactly replacement level in his 11 Games for Baltimore, and he is apparently not significant enough for ZiPS to have a second half projection for him.

J.J. Hardy

61G .278/.338/.498 .836OPS 13HR 33RBI .361wOBA 127wRC+ -2.1UZR

Overall 1.8fWAR

J.J. Hardy has been another one of those rare bright spots on this struggling team. He seems to have, at least in the first half of 2011, returned to the form that made him one of the top-hitting Short Stops in the game with the Brewers in 2007 and 2008. UZR+/- has him at -2.1 so far in 2011, which is a bit of a surprise given how solid his defense has looked. It seems as if his future with the O’s is either extend him or trade him at this point.

ZiPS for the second half: .269/.323/.443 .776OPS 8HR 26RBI .335wOBA

Derrek Lee

70G .235/.294/.372 .666OPS 9HR 28RBI .294wOBA 80wRC+ +3.2UZR

Overall 0.2fWAR

Lee has been sort of the anti-Mark Reynolds, being wonderful in the field and awful with the bat. Not much to be said here. He is old. Something stupid about “veteran presence” could be added too. He has been worth exactly $1M of that $7.25M contract so far. Oops. These projections for him are just way too optimistic.

ZiPS for the second half: .260/.333/.430 .763OPS 9HR 34RBI .335wOBA

Mark Reynolds

87G .227/.346/.493 .839OPS 20HR 49RBI .366wOBA 130wRC+ -17.5UZR

Overall 0.7fWAR

Reynolds’s low BA is not as much of an issue as it might appear at first glance. He is leading the O’s in OBP, OPS, HR, wOBA, and wRC+. He is walking more (14.5%) than his career average (11.8%), and is striking out less (27.9%) than his career average (34.3%). In fact, his 50 walks are good for 8^th in the AL. Now… if only he wasn’t such a disaster in the field. His 20 errors lead the league, and his FLD% is a disgusting .894%. His glove takes away almost all of the value created by his bat.

ZiPS for the second half: .221/.326/.484 .810OPS 17HR 42RBI .353wOBA

Adam Jones

87G .285/.328/.457 .785OPS 13HR 49RBI .344wOBA 114wRC+ -10.1UZR

Overall 1.4fWAR

The Gold Glove Adam Jones won in 2009 is a joke… at least as far as UZR is concerned. If you include 2011, he has now posted a negative UZR in three consecutive seasons, which for defensive metrics is pretty much enough to make the conclusion that you’re not just seeing small sample size. Jones has put up decent numbers offensively in the first half, with a .344wOBA. It’s nice to dream about the offensive force Jones could be if he just had better plate discipline. Among qualified batters in the AL in 2011, the only player who swings at a higher percent of pitches out of the zone than Jones is…you guessed it: Guerrero.

ZiPS for the second half: .284/.333/.455 .785OPS 10HR 38RBI .344wOBA

Nick Markakis

87G .292/.339/.379 .718OPS 7HR 36RBI .322wOBA 100wRC+ 0.0UZR

Overall 1.3fWAR

Nick Markakis is doing again what he has been doing now for the third year in row…being right about average with the bat. It seems as if our Nicky is doomed to be perennially mediocre… which is fine; just not at the rate the Orioles are paying him. Markakis had a .204AVG at the end of April, but bounced back hitting .287 in May and .351 in June. Markakis is 5^th in the AL in hits with 107.

ZiPS for the second half: .289/.356/.425 .781OPS 7HR 35RBI .345wOBA

Luke Scott

63G .223/.305/.408 .713OPS 9HR 22RBI .313wOBA 93wRC+ -2.0UZR

Overall 0.1fWAR

For much of the season, Scott has either been out with injury or playing with injury. Here’s hoping that his offensive numbers were just a result of playing hurt, and that he can get healthy as soon as possible. Season-ending surgery might not be that horrible so long as he can come back healthy in 2012.

ZiPS for the second half: .250/.335/.462 .797OPS 9HR 27RBI .346wOBA

Felix Pie

67G .223/.248/.273 .521OPS 0HR 5RBI .233wOBA 38wRC+ -5.3UZR

Overall -1.2fWAR

Felix Pie has just been downright awful in 67 games this season. The fact that he keeps getting any playing time at all is an abomination. If he had enough plate appearances to qualify, he would have the third worst fWAR total in the Major Leagues.

ZiPS for the second half: .255/.299/.386 .685OPS 3HR 16RBI .301wOBA

Nolan Reimold

27G .257/.338/.443 .781OPS 4HR 12RBI .335wOBA 109wRC+ -0.6UZR

Overall 0.3fWAR

Nolan Reimold was freed from the Minors on May 20^th, but through no doing of his own. Reimold was posting an awful .237/.329/.410 slash line at AAA. Since being up in the bigs, his slash line looks a tad healthier. Really, the only difference between the numbers he was posting in 2009 and so far in 2011 is the difference of a .316BAIP (2009) versus a .275BAIP (2011). I’ll be the first--but certainly not the last--to say: GET THIS MAN SOME PLAYING TIME!!

ZiPS for the second half: .253/.333/.418 .751OPS 7HR 23RBI .336wOBA

Vladimir Guerrero

83G .279/.331/.309 .716OPS 7HR 31RBI .309wOBA 91wRC+

Overall 0.0fWAR

At the All-Star break, former All-Star and future Hall of Famer, Guerrero is showing signs that he could very well be done. After signing an $8M deal with the Orioles this offseason, he has been worth exactly $0 of that deal at the halfway mark. Yes, Guerrero is playing at exactly replacement level, with his wRC+ being below average. His .106ISO is the lowest he has ever posted in a full season. The second lowest was 2010’s .196ISO. A .106ISO puts Guerrero in the company of such feared sluggers as Yuniesky Bentancourt, Chase Headley, and Michael Bourn.

ZiPS for the second half: .287/.322/.340 .662OPS 9HR 33RBI .340wOBA

Brian Roberts

39G .221/.273/.331 .604OPS 3HR 19RBI .276wOBA 68wRC+ -0.7UZR

Overall 0.2fWAR

Did Roberts really play 39 games so far this year? I guess it really just seems like he hasn’t been on the team almost at all since 2009. The bottom line for Roberts is that no one can really tell when or if he’ll be back in uniform, and even when he was “healthy” this season, he wasn’t good.

ZiPS for the second half: .263/.340/.403 .743OPS 4HR 18RBI .337wOBA

Ryan Adams

9G .217/.280/.217 .497OPS 0HR 1RBI .235wOBA 40wRC+ -1.9UZR

Overall -0.3fWAR

Adams got a short shot at filling in at Second Base after Roberts went down and Andino cooled off. He didn’t do much with the bat, and considering he is an “all-bat-no-glove” prospect, that didn’t warrant him staying in the bigs. I am surprised, however that he didn’t get more of an extended look in the Majors given his pretty good line of .288/.353/.416 in AAA this season.

Jake Fox

19G .188/.250/.396 .646OPS 2HR 4RBI .284wOBA 73wRC+ -2.4FRAA

Overall -0.4fWAR

Fox hilariously led the entire world in HR in Spring Training this year, and then showed us who he really was once the regular season started, appearing in only 19 games before being jettisoned off to AAA Norfolk. Fox is currently mashing and always has mashed MiL pitching—this season to the tune of .275/.326/.514. Don’t expect to see him back in Baltimore any time soon—if ever.

Brandon Snyder

6G .231/.412/.308 .720OPS 0HR 1RBI .345wOBA 115wRC+

Overall -0.4fWAR

Maybe Snyder could do something with a real shot in the Majors, maybe not. But the Orioles will never know if they never give him a real look. However, his pedestrian numbers down in Norfolk (.271/.326/.431 .333wOBA 105wRC+) aren’t exactly making a case for him to get any kind of extended playing time in Baltimore.

With a current rotation of Guthrie, Arietta, Jakubauskas, Atkins, and Simon things aren’t looking very bright at all for the Orioles. With Matsuz struggling down in Norfolk and Britton stashed away at Bowie, it is hard to really find much to be excited about as far as the starting rotation is concerned.

The Orioles are currently 1-9 in July, and the road leading to August doesn’t get any easier than the road leading from June was. In the coming weeks, the Orioles play serieses against the Indians, Red Sox, Angels, Blue Jays, and Yankees—all of whom have a combined winning percentage of .554%. .554% is the exact winning percentage of the Texas Rangers—so for the rest of the month of July the Orioles’ schedule averages out to playing the Texas Rangers…over and over again every day.

It’s hard to imagine things getting any better at this point. However, last season at the All-Star break, the 2010 Orioles were sitting at 25-59 and they were somehow able to find a spark under new Manager Buck Showalter to go 41-37 in the second half of the season (34-23 under Showalter). If last season is anything to go by, there might still be hope for something positive to come out of the latter half of 2011 for the Baltimore Orioles yet.

Programming Note

2011-07-08T09:40:00.000-04:00

Hello.

Some recent changes at work have added a lot of new responsibilities and a much larger work load on me right now. Since I worked on a lot of these posts during my lunch hour (which has become non-existent), my posts have become rare and, indeed, the short-term and possibly long-term future of Dempsey's Army is kind of in doubt.

I'm seeing a bit of light at the end of the tunnel and hopefully by mid-July I should be able to get things cranking again.

Thanks for your patience.

Blogger on Blogger with Matt Vensel

2011-06-28T17:54:00.000-04:00

Blogger on Blogger: Where I answer some questions for BaltimoreSun.com's Matt Vensel or the worst YouPorn category ever? You decide!

This Week in Chat - 6/27/11

2011-06-28T12:15:00.002-04:00

Hello there.

My TWiC entry for the week is up over here at Camden Depot. Enjoy!

This Week in Chat - 6/21/2011

2011-06-21T08:30:00.000-04:00

Hello, again.

If you liked the "This Week in Chat" recaps I had been doing this season, I have started posting them with Camden Depot over at the ESPN Sweetspot blog. Here's the link to this week's rundown.

More on this space soon, I promise...

Guest Blogging for MASN.com Again

2011-06-17T11:05:00.000-04:00

Hi! You miss me?

Well, you didn't have to. I was guest posting over at the Oriole Buzz blog on MASNSports.com this week and never had a chance to let anyone know. But there's a week's worth of posts over here.

Back to regularly scheduled programming next week.

2011 MLB Amateur Draft: For the Orioles, It's Got to be Cole

2011-06-03T14:31:00.000-04:00

For most of last season, it appeared that the Orioles would have the first pick in the 2011 Amateur Draft and that Anthony Rendonwould be their third basemen of the future. As the end of the season neared, the Orioles seemed assured of the second pick, at least, and that if they didn't get Rendon, they would certainly get UCLA stud pitcher Gerrit Cole. But they kept playing well and ended up at #4. Nobody knew what to expect with the #4 pick.

But if had told those draft saavy Oriole fans that Baltimore would still have a chance to get Gerrit Cole with the #4 pick, they would have been pretty happy about that.

And now, that just might happen.

I would love to have Rendon in the organization, assuming his medicals are good but he's not going to slip that far down. However, there is word that Cole might.

With the ascendancy of other pitchers in 2011, UVA lefty Danny Hultzen, UCLA hurler Trevor Bauer and Oklahoma high school wunderkind Dylan Bundy are all putting themselves in conversation among the first three picks. So there are scenarios in which Cole could fall into the Orioles' lap.

And if that happens, they have to take him. He was the best pitcher coming into the season and I really don't think anyone else has unseated him. There are many devotees of Bundy (whose brother Bobby is already pitching in the org for Frederick) but I'm sorry, I don't think he's better yet. Bundy is reportedly very polished for a high school pitcher but he's not more polished than Cole.

Don't get me wrong. Unlike last year when I would have been very disappointed if Baltimore had not signed Manny Machado, I don't think the O's can go wrong with any the talent available at #4. Bundy would be awesome. Hultzen would be an amazing lefty to pair with Brian Matusz and Zach Britton and would have a fast track to the majors. And there are other college arms who are intriguing.

But in the unlikely event that Cole slips....Baltimore has to pounce.

(I'll be on vacation next week, hence the early post on the draft. See you in 10 days or so when I do another round of guest posting for MASNsports.com.)

Vlad is Teflon. There's Nothing to be Done

2011-06-02T16:00:00.014-04:00

In Vlad's dreams, Father Time takes the shape of a large parrot...

I was going to say that this post was not me picking on PressBoxOnline.com Oriole beat reporter Matt Palmer. But that would be disingenuous. I am totally going to pick on him to make a larger point.

Matt decided to give grades to various facets of the team for their performance up to the end of May. Here's a sample.

Infield
Grade: C-

...Hardy missed most of April with an intercostal strain, but in 25 games, has not made an error. Offensively, he's been decent, batting .234 with 12 runs driven in and nine runs scored.

Reynolds is no better now than he was when he arrived with the Orioles. He is batting .198 and has struck out 52 times, good for nearly one per game. At this pace, he'll miss .200 for the first time since 2007. Still, he has just seven home runs. If that's his bread and butter and that's not happening, something's wrong. His on-base, slugging and on-base plus slugging percentages are at career lows. He has nine errors and is halfway to the number he had last year...

Now, if we're just going to cite batting averages, hitting .234 is not "decent". Cesar Izturis hit .230 last season. But Hardy is up to .250 and will likely hit better so that's just nitpicking on my part.

And he is not at all wrong about Mark Reynolds. All those thing are absolutely true. Remember them.

Designated Hitter
Grade: B+

For the most part, the Orioles are getting what they expected out of Vladimir Guerrero. He has 23 RBIs with five home runs, so his power abilities are starting to diminish just a bit. Still, he changes the lineup's dynamics just by his mere presence. He leads the team in batting average (.295) and hits (61). The question remains, how long will he be in Baltimore? He's going to be attractive to American League teams with playoff hopes next month.

Let's take this line by line. Getting what they expected out of Guerrero? He is on a pace for 15 home runs so far. 15. Vlad has never hit fewer than 25 over a full season. That is NOT what the Orioles expected out of Vlad. His "power abilities are starting to diminish"? They've diminished! They're gone!

And there it is. Let's let this phrase lie for a second:

"Still, he changes the lineup's dynamics just by his mere presence."

Oh, it's OK then. Because Vlad is magic.

I am beginning to believe that Vlad is magic. He is able to make his poor performance look attractive to a whole lot of fans and media.

And how has this change in dynamic helped the club? This is one of the worst scoring teams in the American League. Only Minnesota, Seattle and Oakland are worse. (And we see how our offense stacks up against Oakland and Seattle in their home parks.) Vlad Guerrero is not a talisman. He's a washed-up hitter. Period.

And he is NOT going to look attractive to AL teams with playoff hopes. He stinks. Let's apply this phrase written about Reynolds to Guerrero.

Still, he has just (five) home runs. If that's his bread and butter and that's not happening, something's wrong. His on-base, slugging and on-base plus slugging percentages are at career lows.

All of the above statements are as true about Vlad as they are about Reynolds. Hell, Reynolds isn't even hitting that much worse than Vlad at this point. (.307 wOBA for Reynolds, .315 wOBA for Guerrero.)

And Guerrero gets a B+. It's just unbelievable.

Matt's not alone is his assessment. Many people think Vlad is having a fine season and is just peachy. It's the great Orange and Black swindle of 2011.

The Obligatory Nolan Reimold Post

2011-06-02T10:32:00.002-04:00

Reimold in Norfolk...for the last time...

I haven't written about Nolan Reimold since his recall from Norfolk nearly two weeks ago which may seem odd since I kept the "Reimold in Exile" vigil on Twitter for 53 straight days.

Mostly, it's been because I had mixed feelings about the call up. Reimold was only called up due to injuries to other players and, after some struggles in AAA, Reimold was finally hitting his stride in Norfolk and I was afraid that he would ride the bench in Baltimore and not get enough at bats to help his development or help the team.

Those fears have turned out to be unfounded. Reimold has gotten plenty of ABs which is all I was wanting for the guy. Failure or success, I wanted Reimold to get his playing time in the majors. Not because he "deserved" it (which is such a nebulous concept anyway) but because it was best for the team to find out what he was and what he could be.

The fact that he has started so well is great. But mostly it's great that he is helping the team and it will help him get more playing time going forward. There is no vindication for me. Not yet.

(Of course, I think that even with the limited sample we have here, it is apparent that Reimold absolutely has the potential to be a good major leaguer. It was incredibly frustrating to see him dismissed by those who gave him absolutely no credit for 2009 but chose instead chose to judge him from 6 weeks of at bats in 2010. So I lied. There's a little vindication here.)

I mean, I saw how he played in 2009. I know he was not fully healthy last year. I know that a young hitter with good patience and good power has a fair shot at being successful in the major leagues. His .357/.455/.714 line through his first 10 games is not at all surprising to me. He's a good hitter. He won't hit like that all the time obviously but he's going to have stretches where he does.

I was just hoping he would get a good 400 plate appearances this season. I'm hoping the hit start will get him those chances and we can see how much (or little) he could help the team in 2012. When Vladimir Guerrero and Derrek Lee are long gone.

Baby Birds Roundup - 5/24/11

2011-05-24T09:41:00.000-04:00

Delmarva Shorebirds

OF Kipp Schutz is hitting .425/.455/.600 over his last 10 games. His OPS for the season is 1.016. He's 23 and he's not being challenged....get him up to Frederick.

IF Ty Kelly has found his power stroke with .381/.435/.500 with a couple doubles and a homer over his last 10 games.

I won't bore you with yet another Jonathan Schoop recap but he's still hitting well.

Righty reliever Clayton Schrader hasn't given up an earned run over his last 7 appearances spanning 18 innings. For the season, 22 IP, 38 Ks, 13 BBs and a lone homer.

Over his last 10 games, 1B Mike Flacco has hit .474/.523/.763 and was named Sally League player of the week.

Frederick Keys

Speaking of honors, SP Bobby Bundy was named Carolina League pitcher of the week. Over his past two starts, he has thrown 14 innings while striking out 11 while walking just 2 and allowing just one earned run.

3B Buck Britton (and brother of Zach) was OPSing .938 in Frederick and finally got a promotion to Bowie this week. He walked more than he struck out (8 BBs to 7 Ks) and he just turned 25. It was time.

Bowie Baysox

After a slow start, CF Xavier Avery is hitting .308/.400/.410 over his last 10 games with 4 doubles. Still just 21, it would be great if Avery build on this nice run.

Lefty reliever Cole McCurry has given up just one earned run this season. One. In 25.1 IP in AA this season, he has 32 strikeouts and just 7 walks.

Norfolk Tides

Most of the talent worth talking about is in Baltimore right now.

LHP Troy Patton probably should be. With all the poor pitching going on in the Baltimore pen, Patton has a 2.60 ERA over 17.1 innings in AAA (15 Ks, 5 BBs, 0 HR).

And after a rough start to the season, LHP Mark Hendrickson has a 1.91 ERA over his last 28.1 innings. (15 Ks, 4 BBs, 2 HR) Surely Hendrickson and Patton offer something better than Mike Gonzalez right now.

Righty reliever Pat Egan has found his control over the last 6 appearances and as a result, he has allowed no runs over his last 12.2 innings.

This Week in Chat - 5/22/11

2011-05-22T11:55:00.000-04:00

Where we distill all the week's baseball chats down to their Oriole essence...

Jonah Keri, FanGraphs.com

12:23 Comment From John
Your discussion with Longoria reminded me of an article I read a few years back about Brian Roberts wearing contacts with a red tint to them so he could pick up the ball better? Are these still used? I haven't read anything about them since.

12:24 Jonah Keri:
See I'm fascinated by stuff like that. I'd be trying every little trick if I played, or made decisions for a major league team, to gain an edge.

I might try to look into this, good call.

1:03 Comment From Zach Britton
Why is there so much ROY hype for Jeremy Helickson and not so much for me?

1:03 Jonah Keri:
What hype is this? I like Hellickson, but it's not like he's leading SportsCenter on a nightly basis.

Jim Callis, Baseball America

Jeff (North Carolina):
Who do the o's take with the 4th pick? Dylan Bundy in the mix, despite his huge demands?

Jim Callis:
I've been hearing the Orioles would prefer a college pitcher. I don't think the demands matter much, because they're so high (six years, $30 million) that clubs don't believe they're close to realistic. They'd love a shot at Danny Hultzen.

David Schoenfield, ESPN

John (MI)
Thoughts on Adam Jones so far? .280 average, 20HR/20SB this season?

David Schoenfield (1:31 PM)
Seems like I get an Adam Jones question every week. He's been hitting lately and he's up to .283 with a .777 OPS, which is actually above league average these days. He's drawn a walk in three straight games, which is probably a career high. Unless he can lay off the offspeed stuff away, this is the best I think we'll see from him ... which isn't terrible, just not what everybody projected a few years ago.

Derr (Mental Ward)
Do you think if Adam Jones got moved up in the lineup he could potentially be a highly productive player. Problem is he has Reynolds hitting behind him so he never sees any good pitches

David Schoenfield (2:04 PM)
Lineup protection is generally overrated. Jones doesn't see any "good" pitches because pitchers know he'll swing at the bad ones.

Matt Eddy, Baseball America

Shoshana (Baltimore):
It's depressing enough being an Orioles fan. Any hope for the future from the farm system besides Machado? Throw us a bone and at least answer a question on the Orioles :)

Matthew Eddy:
Baltimore has the fourth pick in the draft, and that's only three weeks away. Don't forget that the O's have a lot of young major leaguers who could still improve — Matusz, of course, but also Arrieta and Reimold and Tillman.

Keith Law, ESPN

Jack (D.C.)
I like your idea of the Orioles taking Bundy, but I keep hearing they want a college arm. Where do all the rumors come from, are they made up? Also, any reason you believe they'd pass on Cole?

Klaw (2:29 PM)
Most teams view Bundy as the equivalent of a college arm because he's so polished and is physically well-developed. He's a big leaguer in 2 to 2.5 years.

Ryan (Hanover, PA)
Why does Starling keep falling in all of your mocks? I would love to see the Orioles take him at #4

Klaw (2:38 PM)
It's just cost. He's not "falling" in the sense of talent or performance, but fear that he won't sign or - more likely - fear that he'll want more money than teams are willing to spend. They'd rather spend that $10 million on one year of Rafael Soriano, I guess.

Guest Post on MASNSports.com: Orioles Bullpen has been a Money Pit

2011-05-19T08:03:00.000-04:00

Another guest post on MASNSports.com, this one about the futility of fixing a bullpen with expensive free agents. Enjoy.

Fearless Predictions Revisited

2011-05-17T16:00:00.001-04:00

Where I take another look at what I predicted back in March...

If Brian Roberts plays in 130 games, I'm going with 80 wins. If he ends up on the DL, 76 wins.

This one remains to be seen but Roberts has stayed healthy thus far and the team is only 2 games under .500.

Zach Britton wins the AL Rookie of the Year. Yeah, Jeremy Hellickson is the odds on favorite but I think Britton comes up on the outside and catches him.

This one looks way better than it did in March. He is probably ahead of Hellickson but Seattle's Michael Pineda probably edges out Britton at this point with his eye-popping strikeout total.

Adam Jones breaks out this season. A mild breakout, something like a .295/.340/.450. 20 home runs. But a breakout nonetheless.

As discussed yesterday, Jones is hitting .283/.335/.441 and is on a pace for 20 home runs. He's not there yet but he's pretty close.

I can't predict playing time but Nolan Reimold will finish the season with a higher OPS than Vladimir Guerrero. So will Luke Scott.

Not yet...not yet. But Luke Scott is ahead of Vlad...for now.

Jeremy Guthrie will, once again, have an ERA lower than his FIP. Probably significantly so.

Guthrie's FIP is 4.64 and his ERA is 3.98. On target.

Nick Markakis will hit 40 doubles. Again. Also will have at least a .360 OBP.

Only 4 doubles and a .311 OBP so far. A loooonnngg way to go.

Matt Wieters hits 15 home runs. Anything else he does is anybody's guess.

He's on a pace for 16 homers and has become one of the better defensive catchers in the league.

Luke Scott will OPS north of .850.

He's OPSing .766 and has a hurt shoulder. This one is not looking good.

Josh Rupe doesn't see May 15th in Baltimore. He sees it from Norfolk.

Rupe was sent to Norfolk on May 10th.

Zach Britton is in Baltimore before May 15th.

He was in Baltimore before April 15th.

JJ Hardy will be a fan favorite by June 1st.

I think this is a fait accompli.

Matt Albers will outperform most of the Oriole pen while pitching for Boston.

Albers has a 1.65 ERA over 11 games and good peripherals. Nobody in the Oriole 'pen looks better

Mark Hendrickson ends up playing a large role in the Oriole season. Take that as you will.

Hendrickson has not been good in Norfolk but as bad as the rest of the bullpen has been, he'll get a shot soon and he'll probably stick.

Mark Reynolds hits 30 homers and has 200 Ks.

Reynolds is on pace to strikeout only 170 times but only 20 homers. Long way to go to reach those numbers.

Guest Post on MASNSports.com: Ranking the Pitchers in the Orioles Hall of Fame

2011-05-17T09:44:00.000-04:00

The latest guest post on MASNSports.com can be found here. Enjoy.

Is Adam Jones Breaking Out?

2011-05-16T13:53:00.002-04:00

edit: I had this post ready to go on Friday morning before The Great Blogger Outage of '11 happened. I lost most of the post but pieced it back together. I updated with current stats but I may have missed something as I cobbled it back together. But here it is anyway...

Oriole center fielder Adam Jones is hitting .284/.333/.447 (wOBA .346)this season. Through May 11th of last season, he was hitting .230/.257/.353. His OPS+ of 118 (117 wRC+) would be the highest of his career if he can maintain it. The question is, is Adam Jones finally having a breakout season?

Jones was my pick for Oriole breakout player in 2011. I didn't predict big things. A .295/.340/.450 line with 20 home runs. Mild breakout. And right now, those numbers look very reachable for him.

But Jones has had his hot streaks before. Is this just another tease? I wanted to take a closer look.

Some peripheral data from the last three seasons:

BB%    K%   BB/K   HR/FB%   ISO   BABIP
2009     6.9  19.7   .39     17.8   .180   .308
2010     3.7  20.5   .19     11.4   .158   .328
2011     6.4  17.7   .40     12.5   .163   .307

The walk rate is up from his career numbers, his strikeout rate is at a career low and his homer rates, ISO and BABIP are certainly sustainable numbers. This hot streak does not look lucky at all. This is all pretty encouraging but I went and grabbed some plate discipline data from FanGraphs.com.

Plate discipline data from the last three seasons:

Season     O-Swing%    Z-Swing%    Swing%    O-Contact%    Z-Contact%    Contact%    SwStr%
2009        35.2 %      73.3 %     53.6 %      57.3 %        83.3 %       74.5 %     13.3 %
2010        40.6 %      71.0 %     54.6 %      62.1 %        84.0 %       75.2 %     13.2 %
2011        45.4 %      71.2 %     58.4 %      66.1 %        84.7 %       77.6 %     12.3 %

This is the troubling part about Jones. He is swinging at balls outside the strikezone more than ever. He's becoming even more of a free-swinger than he ever was. Now, he's making much better contact on those balls (a trend that has continued over the past three seasons) and is striking out less than ever.

There are two possibilities here. Either he has been getting extremely lucky with the production he's been getting by hitting those balls outside the strikezone or he has developed a freakish Vladimir Guerrero-like ability to hit anything near the plate well enough to keep on swinging.

So consider me a skeptic...if Jones keeps this up for most of the season, I guess we could consider this a breakout. But I'm betting on some regression in the near future.

This Week in Chat - 5/15/2011

2011-05-15T23:05:00.004-04:00

Where we distill all the weekly baseball chatsdown to their Oriole essence...

Dave Cameron, FanGraphs.com

12:20 Comment From Guest
Taillon or Machado if Machado moves to 3b?

12:20 Dave Cameron:
Take the hitter. Almost always take the hitter.

Jonah Keri, FanGraphs.com

12:03 Comment From Cheese
Is Luke Scott going under the knife? Should he be replaced by (gulp) Milton Bradley?

12:04 Jonah Keri:
Scott's still playing as of now, despite a torn labrum. He might still be able to hit with the condition, we'll see.

Don't see what the O's would want with Bradley. They're not winning anything this year anyway, and Bradley obviously comes with more baggage than your usual veteran flyer.

Ben Badler, Baseball America

Chris (Chicago): \
Please rank the following in terms of their long-term major league impact: Zack Britton, Mike Montgomery, Mike Minor, Joe Odozirri.

Ben Badler:
Montgomery, Britton, Odorizzi, Minor

Jon Bass (Ann Arbor, MI):
All right, this technically isn't a Hot sheet question since Zach Britton is in Baltimore, but does he return to the minors when everyone else is healthy? He is their best pitcher right now.

Ben Badler:
Britton has to stay. Send Bergesen or Tillman back to Triple-A.

Rick (Chicago):
What kind of potential does Brett Jackson have and how would he compare to someone like Adam Jones? Thanks.

Ben Badler:
They're both good athletes who run well but aren't burners, have power but are prone to swing and miss, but Jackson's approach at the plate is well ahead of anything Jones has ever shown.

Matt Klaassen, FanGraphs.com

1:13 Comment From AK
Adam Jones, simply on a to-be-expected hot streak, or turning into the player Os fans have been waiting for?

1:14 Matt Klaassen:
If I had to bet, I'd say "hot streak," but he' still young enough that this could be "it," despite my skepticism about small sample "breakouts." I will say that Jones has been more disappointing than Wieters overall, given that Wieters plays a harder position and plays it well, and Jones not only hasn't hit all that well, but hasn't come close to matching his defensive reputation.

Steve Slowinski/Jeff Zimmerman, FanGraphs.com

1:59 Comment From Paul
What are your thoughts on Mark Reynold's start to the seaon?

2:00 Jeff Zimmerman:
I try not to

2:01 Steve Slowinski:
Well, to put it bluntly, he's been really bad. His batting average is even lower than last year's (thanks to an even lower BABIP) and his defense is as atrocious as you'd expect. The power hasn't appeared much yet, which is the worst part...thankfully that doesn't stabilize for a while still, though, so he could break out anytime.

2:01 Jeff Zimmerman:
His K's are down. Sadly, I feel the Orioles are stuck with him.

2:02 Steve Slowinski:
But he's not a bad option for them right now - I think it's too early to give up hope entirely. If that power appears at some point, he'll still be a decent player.

2:04 Comment From xandersdad
Will Luke Scott make it through the season with his shoulder?

2:05 Steve Slowinski:
Required joke: I refuse to believe it'll be an issue until I see the long-form doctor's note. (It's okay, I know I'm not funny)

2:05 Jeff Zimmerman:
No and he shouldn't be trying to play through it right not. Best case - mediocre season, Worst case - re-injures and can never play again.

2:57 Comment From Mark Reynolds
My defense isn't that bad.

2:57 Jeff Zimmerman:
On the run environment, it will matter, but not too much yet.

2:58 Steve Slowinski:
Mark, yes it is. Nice try, though. If only Vlad wasn't a DH, you'd totally belong there.

Keith Law, ESPN

Nick (Baltimore)
Keith, love your work, appreciate your work ethic. Matusz, Britton, Arrieta, Tillman. In that order?

Klaw (1:21 PM)
I give 110%. In that order, yes.

Ryan (Hanover, PA)
Thoughts on the Machado injury?

Klaw (1:56 PM)
He's just out a few weeks, right? So I think ... he'll be back in a few weeks.

Nick (Baltimore)
I am home sick from work so I am finally able to see your chat live! (espn is blocked) Any thoughts on the O's at 4? I am really hoping Trevor Baeur is our man if he is there.

Klaw (2:03 PM)
I believe he's in their mix, and don't see him going ahead of that.

Delmarva at Asheville: Slideshow

2011-05-11T15:19:00.000-04:00

Delmarva at Asheville: May 7th and 8th

2011-05-10T20:20:00.000-04:00

As the big club struggles, it is difficult to maintain your passion for baseball. 13 losing seasons, going on 14 is tough to take. Especially as offseason decisions continue to, predictably, blow up in the front office's face.

But if you need your baseball batteries recharged, leave it to minor league baseball to get it done. Not AAA ball. Too many retreads and broken dreams. If your head is in the wrong place, it can be even more depressing.

But AA or lower? It's fantastic.

I drove up to Asheville, NC this weekend to watch the Delmarva Shorebirds take on the Asheville Tourists. Ideally, I was going up to catch young phenom Manny Machado. But he hurt his knee and was not going to be playing.

But that didn't matter for many reasons.

First there was the setting. The games were played in McCormick Field, an old field that has been in use since 1924 (it was renovated as recently at 1991). It's a gorgeous little park and it's just cozy.

Second, there was actual winning baseball being played as the Shorebirds won on both Saturday and Sunday.

Third, it's great to watch a bunch of guys who are still having a ton of fun playing ball. You can really see it. And it makes you smile

Some observations on a few of the players

SS/3B Jonathan Schoop

Big kid and won't turn 20 until October. Looks smooth and natural at short where he is filling in for the injured Manny Machado. Big arm in the field and effortless power at the plate. More on Schoop over here.

2B Mychal Givens

Givens has a batting line of .152/.235/.171 on the season so I was expecting to see some brutal at bats from him this weekend. But I didn't. He has a good approach at the plate, worked the count and seemed to have a good eye. He only went 1 for 6 but squared up the ball and hit it hard on a regular basis and walked three times over the two games. He has a lot to work on but if he puts is together with the bat, that approach will take him up the organizational ladder pretty fast.

His speed was just OK, not a blazer.

In the field, he was was very smooth at second, especially turning the double play.

LF Ty Kelley

The more I see of Ty Kelley, the more I like him. Of course, I like him better at second base where he played last season but the influx of infield prospects has pushed him to left field. He did show off some good range in the outfield but has an arm like a wet noodle.

Looks good at the plate though, slapping singles to the opposite field and showing some gap power when he pulled it. Only one double to show for it this season but he hit 30 doubles for Delmarva last season. He's hitting .329/.383/.342 and will turn 23 in July. It's probably time to see what he can do in Frederick.

C Justin Dalles

My latest minor league catcher crush, Dalles is back in Delmarva after suffering through injuries in 2010, most brought about by two nasty collisions at the plate. Perhaps that's still in his head as he took a step up from the plate, away from the baseline, to field a throw from the cutoff man during a play at home.

But Dalles looks in complete control behind the plate. I can't put my finger on it but there are guys who look like they know exactly what they're doing when they call the game and Dalles is one of them. He's OPSing .768 with 3 homers. Just one walk though. He needs to get his walk rates back closer to last year and the 22-year old will probably end up in Frederick by season's end.

LF Kipp Schutz

Schutz is 23...too old for low A but his bat has come out of nowhere in his full seaosn league debut. Schutz's last two season in Bluefield and Aberdeen have been kind of "blah" and now he's one of the offensive stars of the Sally League.

He has very good pull power. He jumped on a first pitch fastball, turned on it and just hit a rainbow shot over the 36 ft wall in right field. But he swings a lot. He draws some wlaks but seems to get by in many at bats by fouling off pitches and waiting for one to hit. You have to think that will be tougher to do as he moved up the line. Still, a guy who's hitting .368/.424/.561 is pretty fun to watch.

LHP Jacob Pettit

I didn't think there was much to watch on the pitching front in Delmarva season but I was lucky enough to get to watch two of the guys I was interested in seeing. Jacob Pettit was one of them.

Pettit seemed to get stronger as the game went on. His fastball was sitting at 87-89 mph (these are stadium gun speeds) during the first inning but was sitting at 90-91 by his last inning while toughing 93. But his offspeed stuff was what was getting the swings and misses. He has good control, always staying around the plate and gets a fair share of groundballs. If he was a righty, this would not be that impressive. As a lefty, he's kind of interesting. On the season, he has a 2.89 ERA with 28 Ks, 9 BBs and 2 homers. (37.1 IP)

He's not very athletic fielding his position but does have a pretty good move to first base.

RHP Ryan Palsha

20-year old Palsha had a fastball that sat at 92-94 and he was getting plenty of swing-and-misses from it. He is striking out opposing batters at a 10.0 K/9 rate. Like a lot of the Shorebird relievers, he also walks a ton of guys too (8.2 BB/9).

RHP Scott Copeland

Copeland is out of the University of Southern Mississippi and looks the part of a power pitcher. He is big and he throws hard, sitting in the mid-90's the day I saw him. However, he also had no idea where it was going and when the batters caught up to the fastball, they were able to hit it a long way. 5.8 K/9 and 5.0 BB/9. Not thick enough for a 22-year old in low-A.

C Michael Ohlman

I've been trying to get to a game where Ohlman was actually playing for two seasons now. Ohlman was an overslot signing taken in the 11th round in 2009. He scuffled at the plate last year and I was curious to see how he was adapting in year two of professional ball.

You know all those things I wrote about Dalles looking completely in control behind the plate? I saw very little of that in Ohlman. He made two throwing errors, he dropped a ball that Schoop fired into the plate that should have been a sure out and he looked downright uncomfortable catching Scott Copeland. The only way I can describe it is that he looked like a guy who wans't used to catching the caliber of stuff that Copeland had. But Copeland was wild and he probably just wasn't comfortable because he didn't know where the ball was going. All in all, Ohlman did not look good behind the plate.

At the plate was a different matter. After hitting .208/.302/.293 between Bluefield and Delamrva last season, Ohlman was having a much better season at the plate before his start on Sunday. He looked completely in control and confident with his bat. He worked counts and didn't make an out all day. He had two singles, a double and a grand slam hit over the centerfield wall. He ran the bases well, had good speed and looks way more athletic than you would expect from a catcher. Ohlman is hitting .310/.388/.510 over 20 games and looks to finally be fulfilling the promise he had when the O's drafted him out of high school. He doesn't turn 21 until after the season. He needs work on his defense but it's a nice bat.

Guest Post on MASNSports.com: Orioles Have More Than One Great Shortstop Prospect

2011-05-10T09:21:00.000-04:00

Guest post on MASN where I give some observations on Delmarva SS/3B Jonathan Schoop from the past weekend.

It's Not Clay Rapada's Fault

2011-05-09T09:27:00.003-04:00

There are things that concern me about Buck Showalter.

I am a supporter. I was a big fan of Buck getting the manager job here in Baltimore but there are things that he does that leave me scratching my head.

When the Orioles signed Clay Rapada this offseason, it seemed like an odd fit. He was a LOOGY and I wondered if this team could afford to carry a guy like that in the bullpen with so many young starters in the rotation. For his career, Rapada has allowed a .505 OPS to lefthanded hitters and a 1.111 OPS to righthanded batters. Rapada could be effective when facing lefthanded batters. He should face right handed batter somewhere between rarely and never.

So what has Buck done with Clay this season?

             PA   K   BB   HR   AVG    OPS
vs. LHB      19   7    1    0  .111   .269 
vs. RHB       7   0    2    2  .800  3.057

Righties are batting .800 against Rapada. Eight-hundred.

Clay Rapada may be demoted this week but he doesn't stink. He shuts down leftie batters and get abused by righties. This is what he is. And maybe he doesn't have a spot on this team. Maybe they need a more versatile reliever at this point.

But his 11.12 ERA isn't his fault. It's Buck Showalter's.

He's trying to fit a square peg into a round hole. I wonder what other decisions he is making using this logic.

Baby Birds Roundup - 5/8/11

2011-05-08T14:45:00.009-04:00

Delmarva Shorebirds

Manny Machado has been sidelined with an injury but 3B Jonathan Schoop has slid back to his natural postions at short and is still hitting well with a .340/.347/.553 line over his last 10 games. If not for Machado, I'd be really excited about his prospects as the elusive Oriole shortstop of the future.

More on Delmarva tomorrow...

Frederick Keys

1B Tyler Townsend continues to crush Caroilina League pitching with a .405/.405/.833 line over his last 10 games. He has 24 strikeouts against only 1 walk all year but I don't think he is being challenged in A ball at all. With the recent injury to Baysox 1B Joe Mahoney, perhaps the Orioles can promote him so he can be challenged and start working on his plate discipline.

2B LJ Hoes is finding his footing after a season lost to injury and illness in 2010. Hoes has a line of .341/.386/.512 over his last 10 games, raising his season OPS to .704 and giving hope that he can progress in 2011.

RHP Bobby Bundy continues his hot start to the season as he has struck out 15 and only walked 4 over his last two starts.

Bowie Baysox

C Caleb Joseph continues to be one of the few bright spots on offense for the AA club with a .235/.316/.471 line over the last 10 games. His newly found plate discipline (12 walks against 14 strikeouts) is very encouraging.

On the pitcing side, RHP Dan Klein has continued his good work since his promotion throwing 3 innings of shutout baseball.

Right handed relief pitcher Jose DIaz is listed at 6'4" and 300 pounds. He also has thrown 13.2 innings with a 1.45 ERA, 11 Ks and 3 BBs.

RHP Steve Johnson had a rough stint in Norfolk but has been very good since returning giving up just a lone run over two starts while racking up 13 strikeout against 2 walks.

Norfolk Tides

Offensively, the story in Norfolk in 1B Brandon Snyder with his .889 OPS for the season and his .324/.395/.486 line over the last 10 games.

However, 2B Ryan Adams is making a bod to join him. Adams has had a tough learning curve to start the season but the last 10 games he has hit .381/.435/.476 with 4 doubles. He will always have questions defensively but the guy can hit.

In case you're curious, Nolan Reimold is OPSing .843 over his last 10 games.

On the pitching staff, there is Troy Patton and only Troy Patton (11.0 IP, 10 K, 2 BB, 0 HR, 3.27 ERA)

This Week in Chat - 5/8/2011

2011-05-08T06:00:00.001-04:00

Where we distill all the week's baseball chats down to their Oriole essence...

JJ Cooper, Baseball America

Will T. (Cary, N.C.): Can Brandon Snyder be a starting first baseman in the majors?

J.J. Cooper: It doesn't seem like even the Orioles still think that—they talked about him being a versatile utilityman when he was in the big league camp in spring training.

Mark (Sydney): Mr. Cooper, what's going on with former first round pick Matt Hobgood? Thanks.

J.J. Cooper: Hobgood is trying to work his way back from a shoulder injury. I wouldn't expect much out of him over the first half of this season. If he can start pitching competitively in June or so and stay healthy the rest of the year while showing pre-injury stuff, I bet the Orioles would be very happy.

Spencer (Baltimore): Who do you think is the long term answer at first base for the orioles, Joe Mahoney, Brandon Snyder or someone else?

J.J. Cooper: Someone else.

Jerry Crasnick, ESPN

Matt (Milford, De)
Is Zach Britton the front runner for AL Rookie of the Year?

Jerry Crasnick (12:04 PM)
Matt, Last week I pointed out that I was feeling good about my Michael Pineda ROY choice, and I received a flood of responses from Zach Britton advocates. If what we've seen so far is any indication, it could be a nice little slugfest between those two kids.

jason (richmond, VA)
what do you think about weiters so far this year? He is hitting 9-10 with RISP i believe is this going to be the year he brings the bat to the ballpark to?

Jerry Crasnick (12:34 PM)
Jason, Wow, I didn't realize that until you mentioned it. Matt Wieters has an OPS of 2.923 with men in scoring position. From the people I've talked to, his bat is still a work in progress, but his defense (particularly his throwing) is extremely impressive. With all the talent on that young staff, they need him to think defense first and pitch in with some key hits. So far he's doing that.

Zack (CT)
9-10 with RISP? SMAL SAMPLE SIZE ALERT

Jerry Crasnick (12:35 PM)
Zack, There are small sample sizes, and ridiculous smal sample sizes. 9-for-10 catches your eye no matter what we're talking about.

Jonah Keri, FanGraphs.com

12:41 Comment From Guest
In fantasy, would you trade Wieters for Garza?

12:41 Jonah Keri:
Yes.

1:14 Comment From Nat
What do you think about Adam Jones? He always confounds me

1:14 Jonah Keri:
Still young. Can take guys a long time to figure it all out. I always remember Brandon Phillips in these instances.

1:27 Comment From Eric
What do you see for McCutcheon the rest of the year? Like him more than Adam Jones?

1:27 Jonah Keri:
Definitely prefer McCutchen over Adam Jones. Real life or fantasy.

Jack Moore, FanGraphs.com

1:24 Comment From Os
Where do you think Britton ends up? Nice ratios so far, QS and wins, Zips rest of season is above 4, do you believe he is due for regression?

1:25 Jack Moore:
From what little I've seen him pitch, he has pretty nasty stuff. I'm sure he'll hit some sort of rookie wall at some point and his FIP is way above his ERA right now, so yeah, there's some regression coming. But I do think he'll be useful. Your best bet, though, is probably trying to deal him.

Dave Cameron, FanGraphs.com

12:03 Comment From Jevant
Can you give any positive news for a frustrated Nick Markakis fantasy owner?

12:03 Dave Cameron:
You are (hopefully) not a positive Vernon Wells owner?

David Schoenfield, ESPN

Nick Markakis (Baltimore)
I am offically a bust? Every year I seem to have high expectations and never reach them. What's your take on my future?

David Schoenfield (2:35 PM)
Bust? That's harsh. You're still a very good player. Just not the great player everyone thought you'd be after hitting 23 home runs at 23. But you still hit 40+ doubles every and play good defense. You're just off to slow start this year.

Paul (Atlanta)
Isn't Markakis esentially Mike Greenwell reincarnated? Similar start to his career followed by similar disappointment that he didn't become somthing more.

David Schoenfield (3:06 PM)
Good comparison. Both were very polished hitters when they arrived, and also sort of had "old player" skills in that they weren't necessarily fast runners but already had good strike zone judgment. I believe Greenwell had some injuries that led to his career being shortened?

Keith Law, ESPN

Adam Jones (Baltimore)
Cant... Stop... .Swinging... At... Sliders... IN.... the... DIRT!!!!

Klaw (1:34 PM)
They're just so pretty!

Shoshana (Boston)
Who are the Orioles on in the draft? Safe to say they take 1/3 between Hultzen/Stallings/Bundy? Or are they on someone else?

Klaw (2:15 PM)
Have heard them on Jed Bradley but I think that's cooled. Could see Bauer. Keep hearing college arm, but Bundy is kind of like a college arm and I know they really like him. Don't think they're on Gray. Pretty sure every team in 1-8 except maybe Seattle is at least thinking about Bauer.

Jim Shonerd, Baseball America

Will T. (Cary, N.C.): When will Manny Machado be in Frederick?

Jim Shonerd: The key question right now is when will he be back in Delmarva. It sounds like the Orioles think his knee injury isn't too serious. Hopefully that's the case.

Chris Tillman is Getting A Bad Rap

2011-05-06T11:27:00.004-04:00

"Where do I need to put that horseshoe again?"

All across the media, everyone is talking about what happened to Chris Tillman yesterday. Evidently, he was thrashed, rocked and hammered by the Kansas City lineup yesterday.

But while Tillman's boxscore was plenty ugly, I wonder if the authors of those headlines actually watched the game.

I did. Twice. And while Tillman was not as sharp as he could have been, most of the runs he gave up were due to poor defense and bad luck.

The first three hits Tillman gave up were groundballs that weren't even that well hit. At least two of those balls should have been outs and probably all three. Then there was a misplayed popup but Mark Reynolds and Robert Andino.

The middle infield defense was not good. After giving Andino kudos for his renewed focus in the field, he looked absolutely terrible yesterday.

Anyway, my point is, Tillman pitched well enough to get 6 or 7 outs in the that first inning. There was only one well struck ball in the first.

In the second, Alcides Escobar hit a solid double to left. But he was driven in by Chris Getz who hit a fluky flare down the leftfield line that spun away into foul territory. By my count, there were only two well struck balls hit in the first three innings. Those 5 runs should have been just 1. Or maybe none at all. That deep hole was dug by the entire team, not just Tillman.

Tillman did get hit pretty bad in the 4th while walking the leadoff man, but he was at 79 pitches when he left and should have been into the 5th by then. It was not a stellar outing for Tillman but it really wasn't a bad one. He struck out 3, only walked 1, got a couple popouts and got the opposing batter to hit grounders 47% of the time. But the team has to catch the ball.

Fortunately, Buck Showalter and pitching coach Mark Connor seem to understand that.

Sure, Tillman needs to develop the toughness to pitch through innings where your defense (and luck) lets you down. He definitely got rattled (the balk showed that) and he needs to learn from the situation and improve his mental approach.

Meanwhile, there is already talk of a possible replacement for him in the rotation. Tillman does have a 7.16 ERA but according to FanGraphs.com, Tillman has a 3.50 FIP (the best on the team) and a 4.42 xFIP which is pretty respectable.

It doesn't show in the boxscore but Tillman is making improvements. Now the defense needs to help him out.

He Walks! Vlad Guerrero Walks!

2011-05-04T08:21:00.000-04:00

Last night in Kansas City, a remarkable streak ended. Vlad Guerrero drew a walk.

It was his first walk of the season but he didn't walk the last two games of last season either. It was 29 starts without a walk. He finally walked three plate appearances into his 30th start.

Top streaks of consecutive starts without a walk for Oriole batters:

Rk                 Strk Start        End Games  AB
1      Larry Haney 1967-09-02 1968-09-18    39 137
                                                  
2      Charlie Lau 1962-06-03 1964-06-17    34 134
                                                  
3       Cal Ripken 1999-06-05 1999-07-21    31 130
4      Ken Gerhart 1987-04-17 1987-06-20    31 113
5         Bob Hale 1955-07-08 1955-09-11    31 124
                                                  
6     Billy Ripken 1988-09-04 1989-04-30    30  97
7    Billy Gardner 1956-09-03 1957-04-20    30 119
                                                  
8      Andres Mora 1976-04-21 1976-07-06    29 111
9    Vlad Guerrero 2010-10-02 2011-05-02    29 119
10     Jerry Adair 1964-05-14 1964-06-21    29 119
11     Jerry Adair 1963-07-04 1963-08-21    29 111

As you can see, Guerrero was performing a rare feat. Among the hitters on this list, Cal Ripken was the most recent streak and that was nearly 12 years ago. All in all, it's not a great streak for Vlad's performance (although during Cal's walkless streak, he OPS'ed .964) but it was kind of fun to watch.

So going back to last season, Guerrero went 123 straight plate appearance without a walk before last night.

I don't need to see another one right now.

The New and Improved Robert Andino

2011-05-03T16:02:00.000-04:00

I have not been a big fan of Robert Andino. And that would be an understatement.

When he arrived to the Orioles in 2009, I thought he was fine. Not a good player but just fine. I even advocated for the release of Cesar Izturis since I saw Andino as a younger, cheaper version of Izzy who might just develop a slightly better bat.

But after watching defensive lapses, baserunning errors and just a general lack of effort that season, I began to sour on him.

After watching him during Spring Training in 2010 and a couple of Tides games early in the season, I wrote this exactly one year ago:

Whenever a player is sent back to the minors, you would like to think it won't affect his attitude. In Andino's case, it looks like it has. I am not normally one to jump on players for not trying or not hustling when they are playing poorly but Andino barely looked interested. He failed to run hard on a groundout to short even though he certainly had a fair chance of making it to first safely...and made no effort to throw to first to complete a double-play later in the game. Both those plays were makable but Andino just didn't make the extra effort....He misplayed a flare that dropped for a hit in the 4th and made a throwing error in the 8th that seem to be extensions of the general lack of focus on defense that he displayed in Spring Training. It's just one game but I don't want to see him back in Baltimore. I'm not sure I even want to see him in Norfolk.

Like I said, I don't call a player out for not hustling on a regular basis. It's a long season and guys will make mistakes or not hustle on occasion. I get that so I don't call a guy out at a drop of the hat. I didn't join the "Brian Roberts isn't hustling" movement we saw from fans a couple years ago.

But Andino had worn my patience thin. He had a great opportunity in Spring Training and throughout the 2010 season to come play in Baltimore. Brian Roberts missed most of the season. Izturis has a really bad year at the plate. But even with those opportunities staring him in the face, he just couldn't get his head right. I figured his days as a useful player were over.

Fast forward to 2011. Andino has filled in admirably for the injured J.J. Hardy hitting .314/.397/.392 over 18 games. He has not been caught stealing, has not been picked off and is generally running the bases really well. He has 3 infield hit, including a bunt hit and has yet to hit into a double play. He has made 3 errors at shortstop but has shown fine range, a good arm and is making the routine plays that he used to occasionally botch.

I am not lobbying for Andino to be a starter, not ever. And you have to worry a little about a guy who is so sensitive that he needs a bunch of "atta boys" to give it his all on the field but he's a changed player in 2011. No doubt about it.

Kevin Millwood....An Oriole Again?

2011-05-03T11:51:00.000-04:00

Kevin Millwood is free from the Yankees and is still interested in pitching. According to Britt Ghiroli, the Orioles are somewhat interested in bringing him to Baltimore.

Is that a good idea? Yes...under certain circumstances.

Firstly, Millwood was not so bad last season. He was not great but not so bad. His ERA was a hefty 5.10 but his xFIP was 4.46. And he did have his moments:

ERA
April        3.38
May          4.29
June         8.82
July        10.66
August       3.54
September    3.82

He has his uses, even at the tail end of his career. But only in a particular role. And right now that role is as a AAA pitcher.

The current rotation in Norfolk right now is some combination of Ryan Drese, Mike Ballard, Rick VandenHurk, Chris George, Chorye Spoone and Chris Jakubauskas. None of them are pitching well. Anybody feel OK with one of those guys making a spot start?

Brian Matusz and Justin Duchscherer are coming back at some point. But until then, the Oriole rotation is a bit thin right now. If Jake Arrieta's hip acts up on him, I'd rather call up Kevin Millwood than Ryan Drese. And there is little risk that Millwood will take a full time rotation spot from one of the young pitchers.

Will Millwood sign a minor league deal? Who knows? But that's the only way he fits on this team.

Baby Birds Roundup - 5/2/2011

2011-05-02T07:00:00.001-04:00

Delmarva Shorebirds

Last week, I highlighted Manny Machado's fast start and mentioned that the only thing missing from him at the plate was some power. Consider the power provided.

Machado hit 5 homers last week on his way to an amazing .337/.451/.639 line for the year. He has walked more than he has struck out. He may not be in Delmarva much longer. And he made the Baseball America Prospect Hot Sheet.

3B/SS Jonathan Schoop has continued to impress with a .319/.379/.511 line for the year, number which would be eye-popping if not for Machado's demolition of Sally League pitching. Schoop and Machado are 19 and 18 respectively. We could be looking at the right side of the Oriole infield for the next 15 years.

One of my personal favorites, C Justin Dalles had a .896 OPS through 11 games and hit 2 homers and a double last week. With the catching in Frederick pretty slim, Dalles could soon be promoted to allow the younger C Michael Ohlman more at bats in Delmarva.

RHP Jacob Pettit has a 2.59 ERA over 5 starts with decent peripherals. Out of the bullpen, lefty Jason Gurka has struck out 20 over 13.1 innings while issuing just one walk.

Frederick Keys

Ryan O'Shea has a 3.53 ERA in the minors. His 1.99 ERA this season is the result of some great control (1.6 BB/9). If he keeps that up, he's an interesting pitcher to keep an eye on.

1B Tyler Townsend has been healthy and productive. His .316/.349/.570 line includes 13 extra base hits. He has drawn only one walk but those should come. Townsend is the best bet to seize the mantle of first baseman of the future for the O's.

CF Trent Mummey earned a promotion to Frederick a week ago and has continued his good work with 2 doubles, a triple, 4 walks, 5 strikeouts and an .812 OPS. He also has 15 stolen bases on the season and has only been caught twice.

RHP Dan Klein was promoted to Bowie after 15.2 innings of 1.15 ERA ball. This was a wee bit surprising since the plan was to stretch him out to start some games and I had assumed he would do that in Frederick.

Bowie Baysox

C Caleb Joseph continues to reassert himself as a legitimate prospect. He has more walks than strikeouts, 3 homers, 5 extra base hits overall and a .917 OPS.

1B Joe Mahoney has only played in 8 games but is picking up where he left off in 2010. You're not a prospect until...you are. If Mahoney can continue to OPS somewhere in the neighborhood of .938, he certainly will be one.

There is not much to highlight on the Baysox pitching staff but I will point out Ryohei Tanaka has 11 strikeouts in 11.2 innings of relief and a 3.09 ERA. Closer Brandon Cooney has a 1.13 ERA thorugh 6 games with 9 strikeouts in 8 innings with a 1.13 WHIP.

Norfolk Tides

There is not much to like in the Norfolk lineup right now except for 1B Brandon Snyder's hot start. Snyder has a .300/.364/.544 line, 5 homers, 7 doubles and a .908 OPS.

LHP Troy Patton has 10 strikeouts against just 2 walks in 11 innings pitched. He could help the Baltimore bullpen soon...if he can stay healthy.

This Week in Chat - 5/1/11

2011-05-01T07:00:00.001-04:00

Where we distill all the weekly baseball chats down to their Oriole-centric essence...

Jonah Keri, FanGraphs.com

12:41 Comment From Big Jgke
Is there any division in baseball in which the top 4 teams in the AL East wouldn't all be contenders, outside of the AL East?

12:41 Jonah Keri: I don't think the Jays or Orioles are all that good this year. In past years, sure, you could have made the case about the Jays.

Marc Normandin, Baseball Prospectus

Charles Darwin (San Fran): Will Koji Uehara ever become a reliable source of saves now that he is the favorite? ALso, what are your thoughts on Edwin Jackson?

Marc Normandin: As Mike Petriello has said, as long as Uehera is healthy, he should be great in the role. I'm a big fan of Koji--I drafted him in a few leagues with the expectation the job would eventually be his.

Dave Cameron, FanGraphs.com

12:18 Comment From Rob
Matt Wieters has been on a tear since making an adjustment to a more upright batting stance about 2 weeks ago. What do you see in your crystal ball for him this season?

12:19 Dave Cameron: He's finally hitting for power, which was the missing ingredient the last few years. I still think he can be an all-star.

12:58 Comment From Bodhizefa
What's your favorite ballpark food and drink (from a specific park)?

12:58 Dave Cameron: In general, I avoid buying food at parks. I'm cheap, and it's not cost effective. That said, Boog's BBQ in Baltimore was pretty great.

Jim Callis, Baseball America

Steve Johnson (Boston): Your thoughts on Jonathan Schoop of the Orioles?? More upside than Machado???

Jim Callis: That's crazy on the upside, but Schoop is worth watching. One of Baltimore's better prospects.

Jack Moore, FanGraphs.com

12:44 Comment From Steve
Stil think Mark Reynolds can hit .220 and hit 30 homers? He's getting destroyed by AL East pitching right now.

12:45 Jack Moore:
I mean, that's not the highest bar anybody's ever set... I think he'll get there.

12:55 Comment From Bob B.
Prognosis on Adam Jones?

12:55 Jack Moore:
His problems are all BABIP (.226). He's not hitting any line drives right now, but he's a major league hitter, and I have to think he'll work his way out of it.

Keith Law, ESPN

Brady Anderson (Baldwin)
If you were the Baltimore GM who is your untouchables at trade deadline???

Klaw (1:37 PM)
I can't see why they'd trade Wieters or Matusz or Britton, but every veteran player should be available.

Zach Britton and The Art of Tweeting

2011-04-30T23:21:00.001-04:00

Late last night, the following tweet went out from Zach Britton's Twitter account:

I blocked out the number but what appeared to happen was the accidental sharing of Jake Arrieta's phone number with the world. Britton intended to send Jake a direct message...but forgot the "D". This is not new...comedian Joe Rogan accidentally tweeted his number to all his followers once.

Then came this:

Covering for a mistake or savviest Tweeter ever? Britton's only been on Twitter for 8 days. If it was a prank, that's a quick learning curve. Just like his big league pitching.

But 512 is a Texas area code. And Arrieta is from Texas. Oops.

Guest Blogging for MASN.com: Derrek Lee

2011-04-28T12:04:00.000-04:00

A little late with this link but a quick link to a post I did on MASNSports.com about Derrek Lee's batted ball peripherals and such. Over the last two nights, we've started to see some of his hits drop in for him.

Not So Fast, Nolan Reimold Detractors

2011-04-26T12:15:00.003-04:00

A quick rebuttal to Stacey Long's post about Nolan Reimold over at Camden Chat and answering the question, "(H)as Reimold lived up to the justification" of the Reimold in Exile/Free Nolan Reimold sentiment.

Let me first address the terminology that Stacy uses.

...to prove himself at the minor league level before being handed a major league job....Nolan Reimold hasn't done anything to deserve a major league job.

We have to get past this concept of "handed" or "deserves" a major league roster spot. This isn't about merit or proving one's self. It's just not.

Reimold was and is a viable option in this lineup and can help the team. There is no need to make him earn anything. If you feel he can help the team, you give him a spot. (Conversely, if you don't, maybe you should shop him around...) He shouldn't have to break down the door. It's better for the team if he's playing in Baltimore.

Why is it better? It will be helpful to find out if Reimold can be a regular major league player. The only way to find out for sure...is to let him play in the majors. If he flames out, the team knows they need to find another option for next season through free agency. If he plays well, he's a low-cost solution in left (or at first base) and the team can spend money elsewhere to fill other holes in the roster (of which there are many). This team is not going to contend (or likely win) with the "veteran presence" they signed in the offseason. You might as will find out what you have in house.

But future considerations are not the only reason to let Nolan play. He could actually help the team now. More than the current options on the roster.

It is no secret that I was against the Vlad Guerrero signing. Not because I didn't like Vlad as a hitter at this point in his career (although I didn't) but because they had already signed Derrek Lee to play first base and that Vlad wasn't filling a hole but blocking an option that could be more valuable in the short term and certainly in the long term.

And I'm not crazy about reading too much into 15 or 20 games but that's the premise that was laid out, so it is the premise that I must refute.

I ran Reimold's numbers through the Minor League Equivalency Calculator on MinorLeagueSplits.com. Here's the results compared to Guerrero's actual numbers this season:

                      AB  R   H   2B   3B   HR   RBI  BB   K    BA   OBP   SLG   OPS   
Reimold Equivalent    63  5  15    1    0    2    5    6  21  .235  .320  .328  .648
Guerrero 2011         83  7  22    2    0    3    9    0  13  .265  .265  .398  .663

Neither of those lines is great but is Vlad worth the extra $7.5 million in salary for that production?

(By the way, look at the 0 walks for Vlad. Zero. We are closing in fast on the first of May and the guy has zero walks. A 36-year old DH with zero walks. And we know that Stacy values walks.)

The fact that Reimold can play the field to some extent makes him a more valuable and versatile player. Right now. Today.

Forget about Reimold "earning" a chance. He doesn't have to earn a chance. He only has to be a better option than what's on the roster right now. And he's a better option than Guerrero right now. Right. Now.

And he hasn't even started to hit yet. I'll put my money on the guy a decade younger when looking for a rebound.

But things changed when the Orioles signed Vladimir Guerrero. Now, nothing short of an injury or a mid-season trade is going to give Reimold a chance to get promoted. I understand that's where the indignation comes from, and to an extent I understand. Vlad won't help the team long term, Reimold might, and whenever he's ready, he'll be stuck at AAA.

Yep, that pretty much sums up my indignation.

Reimold's ready enough for this team. He's better now, he's better for the future.

Free Nolan Reimold.

Oriole Offense is Unlucky So Far

2011-04-26T06:46:00.002-04:00

"I'm very sad about that, but some fellas are lucky and some ain't."
- Mr. Pink, Reservoir Dogs

Yes, Mr. Pink, some fellas are lucky. But those fellas aren't swinging bats for the Baltimore Orioles. Quite frankly, this lineup is looking more like Mr. Orange than anything else.

So I bring you the good news. The Orioles are swinging decent bats. The bad news is they are unlucky and all that good work isn't showing up in the boxscore. Using their line drive percentage thus far, I calculated an expected BABIP (adding .120 to the LD% is a quick and easy way to calculate expected BABIP) and compared it to their actual BABIP to see how good or bad things look right now among the full time players.

Name            BABIP     LD%     xBABIP    Dif
Brian Roberts   0.286   26.00%    0.380   -.094
Nick Markakis   0.206   17.10%    0.291   -.085
Derrek Lee      0.259   22.00%    0.340   -.081
Luke Scott      0.250   20.60%    0.326   -.076
Mark Reynolds   0.222   14.90%    0.269   -.047
Matt Wieters    0.262   17.80%    0.298   -.036
Adam Jones      0.226    9.10%    0.211   +.015
V Guerrero      0.284   14.30%    0.263   +.021

Roberts, Markakis, Lee and Scott are getting hosed right now. Reynolds and Wieters are slightly unlucky. The good news is if they keep hitting the ball hard, those BABIP numbers will regress to the mean (around .300 for most hitters) and those offensive numbers will improve.

Jones and Guerrero are another matter. Jones truly is hitting just as poorly as his batting line looks. And Vlad? He's been the luckiest guy on the team and is still just OPSing .663. Hoo boy.

But overall, it looks like the offense will see better days. They just have to keep hitting the ball hard...and hit 'em where they ain't.

John Sickels on Chris Tillman

2011-04-25T22:05:00.000-04:00

An pretty thorough look back at the minor league career and prospect status of Chris Tillman. Sickels explores his velocity drop, the control issues, his cutter and comparable pitchers at the beginning of their careers. In conclusion:

Clearly he has nothing left to learn at Norfolk, and his statistics there certainly imply that he should be successful in the majors. But it hasn't happened yet. In 27 major league starts, he's 4-12, 5.69, with an 86/61 K/BB in 138 innings, 149 hits allowed, 77 ERA+, 5.68 FIP, 4.95 xFIP, and a WAR of 0.1...

Overall, as long as he's healthy, I think there's still a good chance that Tillman can live up to his potential, perhaps as soon as this year. He's only 23. If he had gone to Cal State Fullerton instead of signing with the Mariners in 2006, he would have been drafted in 2009, very likely as a first-round pick, and this would just be his second full pro season. He deserves some slack.

It's easy to forget the guy is just 23. I don't know what the future holds for Tillman but I hope he gets the chance to try to work it out in Baltimore this season, all season, lumps and all.

Baby Birds Roundup - 4/25/2011

2011-04-25T08:00:00.002-04:00

Delmarva Shorebirds

The story in the Oriole farm system so far has been the wonderful debut of 2010 top pick SS Manny Machado. He has posted a .286/.386/.414 line for the Shorebirds with 4 doubles and 2 triples. The only thing he hasn't flashed too much of is his home run power but the gap power is already there.

Not to be outdone, fellow teenage shortstop prosepct Jonathan Schoop (he has slid over to play third base for now) is hitting .338/.419/.538 with 7 extra base hits (including 2 homers). The Shorebirds start a 9-game home stand today. You might want to get out there before Schoop and/or Machado end up in Frederick.

Speaking of promotions, that is just what happened to CF Trent Mummey according to his Twitter account. The 2010 4th Round pick out of Auburn has hit .291/.377/.509 for Delmarva and is getting a shot in Frederick after just 14 games.

Anybody have Kipp Shutz on their radar before this season? Schutz, a 26th round pick in 2006 in hitting an eye-popping .386/.453/.649. It's probably a fluke. Probably. But interesting.

Frederick Keys

1B Tyler Townsend has been very, very good when he's been healthy. And so far, he's been healthy while hitting .286/.340/.510 with 2 homers and 5 doubles.

OF Tyler Kolodny has been a low average, high power guy thus far but somehow, he's hitting .317/.417/.488 and even has a couple stolen bases. His 4-to-1 K/BB ratio does not bode well but he is one of those guys I like...a very deep sleeper.

RHP Bobby Bundy is striking out the Carolina League with a 15-to-1 K/BB ratio and a 2.77 ERA. He's one to watch.

2010 3rd round pick Dan Klein is relieving for the keys and repoertedly being stretched out to start. Klein has a 1.64 ERA and a 15-to-2 K/BB ratio.

Bowie Baysox

There's not much to like in Bowie right now. OF Robbie Widlansky is hitting .315/.351/.481 with 6 doubles and a homer. Outside of him and Jeff Fiorentino (who doesn't count) nobody is hitting.

C Caleb Joseph is off to a decent start as he tries to re-establish his prospect status hitting .270/.391/.378.

27-year old RHP Zach Clark is the only bright spot on the pitching staff right now with a 3.07 ERA and showing crazy control.

Norfolk Tides

1B Brandon Snyder is off to a good start in Norfolk with a .279/.333/.525 line including a team leading 4 home runs. Early signs of Snyder delivering on his 1st round promise? Keep and eye on him.

2B Ryan Adams has struggled a bit in his AAA debut hitting .258/.313/.306 but his approach looks good and I imagine he will hit eventually.

This just in: Josh Bell is not walking. He has 23 Ks versus 2 BB.

LHP Troy Patton has only been in two games but has a 1.80 ERA. The staff beyond him is a complete disaster.

This Week in Chat - 4/24/11

2011-04-24T20:21:00.000-04:00

Where we distill all the weekly baseball chats down to their Oriole-centric essence...

Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus

Todd (Austin):
Odds that Segura is the top SS prospect in next year's top 101?

Kevin Goldstein:
Battle will be between him and Machado. Francisco Lindor gets sleeper odds.

Jay (Madison):
Speaking of Machado, how's his D' looking in the early going? Can he stick at short?

Kevin Goldstein:
D has been just fine, but his future at short is not a question of skills, it's a question of how much that body is going to fill out.

Jack Moore, FanGraphs

12:22 Comment From James
Does Adam Jones have the power speed combo to be the next Carlos Gonzalez? Especially with the lineup support he has is this his year? Or soon in the future?

12:23 Jack Moore: Not that good, I don't think. And until he learns to take more walks, he's not going to have the kind of OBP he needs to really be a table-setter (cliche alert) either. Decent power, good speed for sure. But not nearly that talented of a hitter.

Frankie Piliere, Fangraphs.com

12:46 Comment From Dan (Baltimore)
If you were the Orioles and the draft was today...who would be your top four?

12:47 Frankie Piliere:
If it was my board I'd go Rendon, Cole, Hultzen, Springer. I'm sticking with George in that top group.

Jonah Keri, Fangraphs.com

12:00 Comment From Big Jgke
You've been pretty consistent in projecting the Jays to finish last in the AL East. Why do you think they're worse than Baltimore?

12:00 Jonah Keri:
Have I? Those 2 teams strike me as potentially close, and the difference might not be much. I wouldn't sweat it if the Orioles win 77 games and the Jays 76, or vice versa. Both aren't going to win just yet, but both have bright futures.

12:30 Comment From Bigsmooth
What happens to Britton when Matusz comes off the DL? What can we expect from Matusz?

12:31 Jonah Keri:
I'd keep Britton up and demote Tillman. I like Britton's present, and future, more than Tillman's. Matusz if healthy should be a solid, above-average pitcher.

12:46 Comment From Dan
Pssst, Wieters' OPS+ is sitting at 108 and he's playing fantastic defense behind the plate. I thought he was washed up?

12:47 Jonah Keri:
The rush by people to claim that a hot prospect is not as good as we thought is so silly. My mantra always begins and ends with Brandon Phillips.

Dave Cameron, Fangraphs.com

3:17 Comment From Chief Wahoo
Who's a good comp for Dustin Ackley?

3:18 Dave Cameron
Brian Roberts. Gap power, some homers, good speed, average to slightly above defender.

Jayson Stark, ESPN

kid123 (ny)
haha thank you for posting that, made my day! Biggest Sellers at the trade deadline? Baltimore and San Diego?

Jayson Stark (1:59 PM)
I'll vote Baltimore. So many marketable players on the last year of their contract. And not much chance they'll contend.

Guess the Date

2011-04-22T12:20:00.000-04:00

A quick giveaway...

AnyDate.com has provided me with 63-page commerorative newspaper full of New York Times articles of great moments in Oriole history. Details of the newspaper can be found here.

I will be giving away this prize by allowing you to guess a date. What is the date that Nolan Riemold will be called up from Norfolk to Baltimore? This question is confused by the fact that Reimold is only hitting .200 in AAA so the field is wide open.

Send your guess to dempseysarmy at yahoo dot com or tweet it to me @dempseysarmy on Twitter. Good luck!

Baltimore Orioles History

Guest Post on MASNSports.com: WAR says Guthrie rates among O's all-time best pitchers

2011-04-22T10:23:00.000-04:00

My last guest post for MASNSports.com can be found here. Back to regular programming and thanks to MASN for letting me try something new.

They Make the Schedules, Right?

2011-04-20T11:26:00.000-04:00

A tweet from the official Twitter account of the Baltimore Orioles:

Nothing wrong with this. Except that the Orioles won last night (Tuesday) and not Monday. And the fact that tonight is not the series finale with the Twins....it's a four-game set that ends on Thursday.

But other than that....Aces!

Guest Post on MASNSports.com: Let's Sit Jake Fox Against Lefties

2011-04-20T09:57:00.000-04:00

THe latest guest post on MASNSports.com can be found here. Enjoy.

Guest Post on MASNSports.com: The Longest Game in Pro Ball, 30 Years Later

2011-04-19T10:52:00.000-04:00

The link to my guest post is here. Enjoy.

Guest Blogging for MASN.com

2011-04-18T09:41:00.000-04:00

I will be doing some guest blogging for MASN.com this week. I will likely still have some posts over here too and I will link to the MASN posts here.

The first post: Orioles Offense Offers More of the Same

This Week in Chat - 4/17/11

2011-04-17T18:31:00.001-04:00

Where we distill all the weekly baseball chats down to their Oriole-centric essence...

Jonah Keri, FanGraphs

12:18 [Comment From YankeesJunkie]
Would you vote for Manny to the HOF?

12:19 Jonah Keri:
Of course I would. Also Bonds, Clemens, McGwire, Sosa.

(I'm a maybe on Palmeiro, because PEDs aside, we need to adjust the offensive records of the era, and Palmeiro to me would be roughly the cut-off.)

12:58 [Comment From Dan]
How for real can Zach Britton be?

1:00 Jonah Keri:
Love him! Speaking of SOM, he was my 1st round pick this offseason. Any time you throw a mid-90s fastball that darts and sinks, you've got a chance.

I do think AL East reality will set in and cause something of a correction. But as a guideline, I like him more than Matusz or anyone else the O's have, long-term.

1:23 [Comment From Big Jgke]
Order of finish in AL east?

1:24 Jonah Keri:
Red Sox
Yankees
Rays
O's
Jays

Jerry Crasnick, ESPN

Jim (Valdosta, Ga)
If the Orioles bullpen holds up they have a legit shot at being over .500, correct?

Jerry Crasnick (1:16 PM)
Jim, I think the bigger question is how Britton, Tillman and the young kids will fare in the rotation. That AL East is a gauntlet, and it's not the easiest place to learn on the job. But the Orioles are now 40-26 under Buck Showalter, I believe, so they've clearly tapped into something good. I can see them finishing at .500, sure. But that might be the ceiling for this season.

Dave Cameron, FanGraphs

12:14 [Comment From Scott]
Matusz or Holland?

12:14 Dave Cameron:
I'm a big Holland fan, but Matusz.

12:18 [Comment From Bucky Show]
Sure, it's early, but when will people realize the O's have potential? Is a wild card really that unrealistic?

12:18 Dave Cameron:
We put them #15 in the Org Rankings, so I'd say that people have been seeing that potential for a while. But yes, a wild card is unrealistic. They're not ready to win 90+ games.

David Schoenfield, ESPN

Jack (DC)
Is the Orioles' Adam Jones going to breakout this season?

David Schoenfield (1:56 PM)
See Jonny Gomes. I don't think so. Jones is still a wild hacker at the plate. No discipline means too many easy outs for pitchers.

Ben Lindbergh, Baseball Prospectus

Tavis Bregel (Covington, KY):
Thanks Ben. Same question, another pitcher, what's the outlook for Zach Britton?

Ben Lindbergh:
Much better than Harrison's. Britton is the real deal. There will be some struggles--he's walked too many batters not to get burned at some point--but he should be fun to watch, and it's hard to imagine that he'll be sent back to Norfolk. If only I could stop calling him "Chris." Old habits die hard.

TGisriel (Baltimore):
How much of a problem is it for the Orioles to lose Matusz and Hardy to the disabled list?

Ben Lindbergh:
Given that Matusz's injury gave the Orioles an excuse to call up Zach Britton, not a huge one. Hardy's was a tough loss, plunging the O's back into the dark days of "Cesar Izturis, starting shortstop," but he'll be back in six weeks or so.

TGisriel (Baltimore):
Buck Showalter has commented recently on the number of third strike foul tips Matt Wieters has caught for a strikeout. He uses it as evidence that Wieters is a superior defensive catcher. Are you aware of any analysis of catchers and third strike foul tips? Does anyone even keep track of them? Are such plays included in ratings of catchers' defense?

Ben Lindbergh:
Hasn't been analyzed or included in any catcher defense ratings, to my knowledge, but it's an interesting question, and one well worth looking into.

Drungo (SoMd):
Chris Tillman: 88 mph buzzkill like Hughes, or kid working on his mechanics and will see his velocity return?

Ben Lindbergh:
To paraphrase Joe Morgan, I haven't seen him pitch this season, so I'll reserve judgement. I read that the velo drop was at least partially an intentional measure to increase control and movement, but I'm skeptical. Progressive velo decline is the norm for pitchers, unfortunately, but big velo drops are usually a cause for concern.

Keith Law, ESPN

Dan (DC)
I know you've advocated giving Tillman 30 starts, but he's been just hard to watch this year. He's throwing straight 88 mph fastballs. It's BP versus the AL East clubs. Do they send him down until they figure out what happened to his velocity, or do they keep throwing him out there and let him learn how to pitch at that speed?

Klaw (2:15 PM)
If a guy's stuff is down, that's another story. I have to question his health, since I have seen him throw harder than that in the past. At 88, with poor command and no sink, he's throwing BP, which means he'd only post a 3.30 ERA in Petco.

Jeff (B-More)
Hultzen or Jungmann to the O's at 4? Which has a higher ceiling/higher floor?

Klaw (2:18 PM)
I think it would go Hultzen, Bradley, Jungmann. That's also how I'd rank them in value, although Bradley has a little more ceiling than Hultzen, who is pretty close to a finished product right now.

John (Lexington, KY)
I'm not sure if your rankings deal specifically this issue, but for the short term (Next two years), do you choose Britton or Pineda?

Klaw (2:38 PM)
Neutral environment, Britton, easily. But he's in the AL East, and Pineda's in Safeco with a great defense behind him.

SportsHui (Seattle)
Weiters HR yesterday off Burnett made him look like everything we've ever hoped for, even for a brief moment. What kind of sample size does it take to convince scouts that a prospect has finally arrived?

Klaw (3:11 PM)
I think the industry never fully gives up on a guy with that kind of pedigree - once a first-rounder, always a first-rounder. And there's an old scouting cliche that catchers develop later, at least offensively, that I can't figure out how to verify, but find useful in situations like this.

Jim Callis, Baseball America

Steve (Baltimore):
To me this makes too much sense not to be considered- O's trade Jake Arrieta to the Yankees for Montero. The Yankees get a desperately needed young pitcher and the O's stick Montero at 1st and have Miguel Cabrera Jr. Moreover, the Yankees are flush with young catchers and the O's seem to have an abundance of young pitchers. Tell me this wouldn't work.

Jim Callis:
Because Montero is significantly more valuable than Arrieta. Montero (as part of a package) almost landed Cliff Lee last summer. The Yankees will use him in that type of a trade rather than for Arrieta. I do like Arrieta, but the Yankees would never make this deal.

Ken Funck, Baseball Prospectus

Rex Little (Big Bear CA):
Travis Snider and Adam Jones are piling disappointing starts on top of disappointing careers. Do you think either or both will turn it around?

Ken Funck:
Well, KG tells me Adam Jones is better than Willie Mays, so he has to turn it around, right? (Of course, that's just his standard intro into how average players today are better conditioned, better trained, etc. -- of course Willie Mays born at the same time as Adam Jones would be better than Adam Jones).

Seriously, though, I fear Adam Jones is turning into Corey Patterson, and I'm losing my optimism about him. Snider is younger and has a better chance of turning things around.

Frankie Piliere, FanGraphs

12:14 [Comment From Matt Wieters]
What's my problem?

12:15 Frankie Piliere:
Inexperience, and that most catchers take more time to develop on the job in the majors. You'll be fine.

Taking Another Look at the Tillman Debacle

2011-04-14T11:41:00.000-04:00

So I went back and watched Tillman's brief performance in the Bronx last night...and I have to say that while it was not good, it was not as bad as it looked initially.

And I'm sure I will be labelled a Tillman apologist but here it goes.

The first three Yankee batters reached via ground ball hits. Like Scott Erickson used to say, I can make them hit it on the ground but I don't know where it's going to go. If someone makes a play on one of those balls, maybe the inning goes differently. Or maybe the A-Rod homer is a 2-run job instead of a 3-run shot.

Secondly, there were two fly balls to left that I think Felix Pie would have had a very good shot at catching. They weren't easy plays but they were impossible for Scott who gets good jumps but does not have Pie's speed. And then there was Jeter's lucky infield hit in the second inning.

Don't get me wrong. It was not a good outing and he had some hard hit balls. And even if things broke his way, I'm not sure he pitches into the 5th inning last night.

But he gave up some hits on weakly hit balls, grounders and nubs. It was not as bad as the box score looks.

Even after last night, Tillman's FIP and xFIP are 4.87 and 4.89 respectively. He's not giving up a bunch of homers and he's stopped walking people at ridiculous rates. He has not been good but he has been pretty unlucky too.

Again, for the third time...it was NOT a good performance last night. But it wasn't the unmitigated disaster it looked to be at first blush. And his season so far has been OK regardless of what his ERA reads right now.

Quick Thoughts on Last Night's Game

2011-04-14T07:43:00.005-04:00

I have some reactions to last night's game...or some reactions to reactions to last night's game.

Christ Tillman....he was bad. I completely agree. But why would you want to send the guy back to AAA. I'll post his AAA numbers...again.

Lev    W  L W-L%  ERA  G CG SHO    IP   H HR BB  SO  WHIP HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
AAA   19 13 .594 3.06 39  2   2 218.0 205 15 56 193 1.197  0.6  2.3  8.0  3.45

Whatever he does in AAA works for him. Call him a AAAA pitcher but there's no reason for him to go down. He should live or die right here in Baltimore.

That future in Baltimore may lay in the bullpen. And that's just fine with me. He needs to face major league hitter and maybe the pen is the way to go.

But until Brian Matusz comes back, you've got to keep trotting him out there every fifth day. I just got done watching the majority of the Norfolk Tides rotation and it's not pretty.

2011 ERA
Ryan Drese         8.18
Mark Hendrickson  12.50
Michael Ballard    6.00
Rick VandenHurk    6.00

The only starter who looked decent was Troy Patton...and he's on the DL now.

There are no better options. There is no help arriving. Tillman should remain in the rotation until Matusz returns and should pitch somewhere for Baltimore all this season. There are no better options.

About Vlad Guerrero...I have seen some grumbling about Vlad's free swinging ways amongst fans and from the press.

The vast majority of the fans and all of the mainstream media were really enthusiastic about his signing. But the guy has been a free swinger at the plate for 15 seasons and he has built himself a Hall of Fame resume with that approach.

And now you expect him to change it?

Vlad is not going to stop swinging. Game situations don't matter to him. His approach is his approach and he's not suddenly going to become more patient at age 36. The very notion is hilarious.

Of course things would be better if he were more patient. His career would have been more brilliant than it already was if he was more patient. But he's not. He's Vladimir Guerrero. He's what he has always been.

I remember a few years back when Frank Thomas was playing for the Blue Jays and injuries and such forced the manager to move Thomas into the cleanup spot in the lineup. And then Thomas was criticized for not being more aggressive at the plate to "drive in runs" and continuing to take walks. Forget the fact that that is what Frank Thomas was and always was...sometimes people illogically expect different results from the same guy.

I was not in favor of the Guerrero signing but I'll be damned if I'm going to criticize his approach at the plate. It's like being critical of a duck for having webbed feet. He is what he is.

And everybody wanted him. Now you have him.

Finally, quit quoting me stats about how the Orioles are hitting with runners in scoring position. It's a completely meaningless stat. So stop it or I'll have to explain why it's stupid.

OK, resume party...

Norfolk Tides vs. Gwinnett Braves: 4/11/11

2011-04-12T10:56:00.010-04:00

The Norfolk Tides (AAA affiliate of the Baltimore Orioles) fell to a woeful 0-5 last night in fairly woeful fashion, losing to the Gwinnett Braves 8-3.

Things looked good for the Tides early. LHP Troy Patton took the spot of the recently recalled Brad Bergesen and held the G-Braves hitless for three innings. Nick Green had doubled in Josh Bell in the 2nd and Nolan Reimold had a solo shot to deep left in the 4th to give the Tides the 2-0 lead against RHP Jair Jurrjens who was on a rehab assignment from Atlanta.

But G-Braves CF Jordan Schaefer led off the 4th inning with a drag bunt between the pitcher and first base. Patton ran and lunged at the ball, missed it, stumbled and fell, landing on his left side. Patton remained on the ground for a full minute or two, then got to his feet and was pulled from the game. (It was later reported that Patton had a wrist injury although it looked like he had fallen on his shoulder.)

Fellow lefty Mark Hendrickson came on in relief and gave up 6 runs in his three innings including back-to-back homers in the 6th. Tides RF Tyler Henson hit a sac fly to plate SS Nick Green in the 7th. RHP Pat Egan pitched the final two frames and gave up a two-run homer in the 8th.

The Tides are now the only winless team left in the International League. They will try to get their first win tonight at Coolray Field in Gwinnett.

Some random notes:

Troy Patton: On a night when Jair Jurjens' fast ball was sitting at 92-93 on the stadium radar gun, Patton was having to really dial it up to touch 91. His fastball sat at 87-88 on the night but it was his breaking stuff and offspeed pitches that were giving Gwinnett fits last night. His changeup seemed to be the swing-and-miss pitch of the evening as he compiled 4 strikeouts and walked no one. I don't remember a well-struck ball all night. His injury looked kind of ominous, hopefully it looked worse than it was.

Mark Hendrickson: I was a big proponent of bringing Henrickson back to the Baltimore organization. I think he pitched better than he showed last year and is generally an underrated reliever. But there is nothing I saw last night that would lead me to believe that he can still pitch in the majors. His fastball was up all night, even the outs he got were loud ones and he gave up two home runs to a lineup that is not exactly an offensive powerhouse. He has a lot to work on.

Josh Bell: Bell was a mixed bag in the field. He had a couple of sharp grounders that he bobbled a little, one bobble of which allowed a runner to reach. But his arm was strong and accurate all night, something that he had issues with in Baltimore last season. At the plate, he looked extremely comfortable, even against a good major league caliber pitcher like Jurjens. Bell went 3 for 4 with a triple.

Ryan Adams: Adams did not get that many chances in the field but on a routine grounder up the middle, I saw his fielding flaws. Admas ranged deep and nearly got to the ball but it skipped under his glove and there was just no sense that he is athletic or quic enough to make the tough plays. His arm is good and makes the routine play with little effort. I see why third could be his ultimate position but there was nothing I saw to indicate his reactions are good enough for that position either. At the plate, Adams has struggled thus far but managed to draw 2 walks and also had 2 strikeouts. I like his approach and he may hit well enough to offset his defensive trouble at second.

Pat Egan: I was a little disappointed in Egan. His first inning of relief was exactly what I was expecting. A fastball that sat at 92 mph and could touch 94 and good enough breaking stuff to keep the oppostion off balance. He gave up a liner to left in the 7th but nothing else was well hit. He fielded his position beautifully twice that inning, once to start a 1-5-3 double play and another leaping stab of a chopper that looked to be over his head and heading up the middle.

His nest inning of work was another matter. I don't think he touched 91 more than once and his fastball looked very hittable. He gave up the homer and was lucky that was all that was surrendered. He may just be a one inning guy...looked like a different pitcher during that second inning. Something to keep an eye on anyway.

Nolan Reimold: Hit a homer to left off Jair Jurrjens. Would've liked to have seen him work the count a little better tonight as he went 1-4 with the homer and a strikeout looking. (The called third strike looked low...) Reimold is now hitting .250/.333/.633 on the young season and made a nice running grab on a sinking liner too.

This Week in Chat - 4/10/11

2011-04-10T18:22:00.001-04:00

Where we distill all the weekly baseball chats down to their Oriole-centric essence...

Jonah Keri, Fangraphs

12:09 [Comment From Omar Little]
So which of the Os starters would you most trust for the whole season -- Guthrie, Britton, Tillman, Matusz?

12:10 Jonah Keri: Is this a fantasy question? Because otherwise, why not trust them all? Guthrie is perennially one of the most underrated pitchers in the game, and all three of the young guys have good upside, of course.

12:10 [Comment From Matt]
Impressive Start from Britton. Do you expect him to stay in the rotation? What stats could he post this year?

12:11 Jonah Keri: Yes, I think he can stick. Adjust all AL East ERAs up .30 to .50, winning pct and others too. On a neutral level, Britton can peak as a 3.50 FIP guy, and maybe get under 4 this year if things break right.

12:37 [Comment From DRS]
I don't want to make to big a deal out of the O's starting 3-0 but they do have some talented young pitchers. What struck me as the most promising aspect of watching them was that their pitchers pounded the strike zone instead of constantly working deep counts and walking batters. Your thoughts on that staff and the O's overall?

12:38 Jonah Keri: As I said before, I like the starting rotation's potential a lot. Still think they struggle to reach .500 this year. But I'd be encouraged about the future. (Would be even more encouraged if/when Adam Jones takes the next step, and Markakis finally hits for power.)

12:39 [Comment From baltfan]
Is Wieters on his way to be becoming the best game-caller/defensive catcher in the major leagues? He had Britton drop his sinker yesterday. Takes guts to have a young kid drop the pitch that got him there because he couldn't control it.

12:39 Jonah Keri: How the hell do we quantify best game-caller? Seriously, I have no idea.

1:52 [Comment From Robert]
Could Chris Tillman be a future ace? Do you like him or Britton over the long term?

1:52 Jonah Keri: Britton's track record suggest better command, a lot more GB. Could even see Britton being best of the whole bunch.

Steven Goldman, Baseball Prospectus

Charlie (Bethesda, MD): So who you got in the ALDS - the O's or the Royals?

Steven Goldman: Much as with rumors of Boston's demise, the rise of the O's and Royals are much exaggerated. Still, it is heartening to see the Orioles experiencing a little success for once. Sure, it's fun to mock a perpetual loser, but much more fun to see good teams throughout the league playing each other. As for the Royals, see my answer to the first question, but in reverse: some 100-game losers win a few on their way down the standings.

kcroyalsguy (outside): Do you think Jake Fox will get 300+ at bats this year or has his ship already sailed so to speak?

Steven Goldman: Well, it would be nicer if he got his first at-bat before we project him for 300. He might get a few at-bats around the inevitable Derrek Lee DL stint. I don't know that it would be a good thing anyway, given the 10 walks he would draw against those 300 ABs.

TGisriel (Baltimore): As Baltimore rejoices in the Orioles 4-0 start, I am (surprisingly) not hearing many claims that this team will "go all the way". The talk is about having a competitive winning (.500 or above) team that is fun to watch, which I think is a realistic goal for this team. Your thoughts on the Orioles?

Steven Goldman: It has been too many years of suckage for anyone to jump on the bandwagon that quickly. I'm still looking for 81-81, though the way pitchers are dropping (Guthrie, Matusz) that may be increasingly difficult despite the start. And then there's positional depth. There aren't any great players standing behind the starting lineup, so if the oldsters get hit by injuries, look out.

Gisriel (Baltimore): My theory is that the Orioles trade either or both Guerrero and/or Lee at the deadline, move Scott to DH or 1B, and bring up Reimold to play LF. Pie remains the 4th outfielder.

Steven Goldman: I'm not sure how much faith there should be in Reimold at this point...

Dave Cameron, FanGraphs

12:00 [Comment From bill]
which team gets the most wins this year: orioles, pirates, diamondbacks, nationals?

12:00 Dave Cameron: I'll take the Orioles. #15org off to a pretty good start so far.

12:07 [Comment From Oscar]
Will you commit to eating your own keyboard if the Orioles make the playoffs this season?

12:07 Dave Cameron: I just upgraded to a Mac last week, so no, that'd be a really expensive keyboard to eat.

12:19 [Comment From Jason]
RE: The AL East. Last year there were 4 teams with records above .500 against the AL East as a whole. All 4 of those teams were from the AL East. So yah...

12:20 Dave Cameron: All five of those teams would be playoff contenders in any other division in baseball.

12:31 [Comment From The Dude]
Give me your three most under-rated outfielders.

12:32 Dave Cameron: Anyone in the Randy Winn family of good defensive players who man a corner instead of center field and have gap power. These no-plus-tool guys usually get labeled as tweeners or fourth outfielders, but several of them are well above average regulars.

12:54 [Comment From TK]
bigger effect on AGonz HR total in 2011, home park or lineup?

12:54 Dave Cameron: Park, by a lot. There's little to no evidence for the protection theory.

David Schoenfield, ESPN

Zack (Baltimore)
How long do we wait to being adjusting expectations of our O's? Baseball success is built on pitching, and so far 4 games, 4 quality starts.

David Schoenfield (1:10 PM)
As much as I want to jump on the Baltimore bandwagon, four games is four games. Can't overreact yet. The Orioles had seven winning streak of four games last season and still lost 96 games.

Matt (New Jersey)
David, many people got on the Orioles for signing the free agents they did, and I don't necessarily disagree with some of thoughts. But, and I know this can't be quantified (Neyer word), is there something to having veterans around that provide some sort of blanket for the young pups on the roster? Throwing out a young team for the sake of playing time while watching them get beaten up, especially in the East...I don't know. As a former athlete I always found confidence in looking to some older guys and their presence (granted you are counting on them to actually produce to instill confidence). Just rambling...thanks for chatting.

David Schoenfield (1:50 PM)
Good post. I did like the signings and I do think there is at least a *little* something to veteran presence. Now, the vets have to produce, because ultimately it's all about production. But maybe it does help a young guy like Adam Jones, since he doesn't have to think he has to be the big RBI guy and maybe he swings for the fences as much. He can focus on getting on base more and hitting line drives.

Keith Law, ESPN

Brian (MD)
If you were the Orioles sitting with the fourth pick and Francisco Lindor was your top rated prospect would you still take him even though you just drafted Machado last season?

Klaw (1:38 PM)
Yes. Best player available. That said, he won't be the best guy available, IMO. (Actually, one name I forgot for Washington who'd also fit here is Dylan Bundy.)

Raymond (Baltimore)
KLAW, as an Orioles, I do believe that after a week you cannot really change the way that you perceive any team. But my question is WHEN is it accurate to start to legitimately believe in a team? I kind of go back to the Rays (or Padres last year) where it seemed like into September (or November for Tampa) people were still waiting for the shoe to fall off. Now Personally, I think the O's will win 77 games, and hope they trade Vlad and Derrick Lee this summer to get more prospects, and give Tillman 30 starts.

Klaw (1:40 PM)
Well, the shoe did fall off for San Diego in September, right? Tampa Bay shouldn't have surprised anyone, though. To your question, for a team massively out- or under-performing expectations I'd like to see at least 50 games, and even then I'd be uncomfortable making a grand statement.

Amos (New York)
Can you name a guy or two you haven't given up on, even after a decent sample of serious non-performance in the bigs? (Someone like Weeks doesn't count, someone like Milledge or Gordon does.)

Klaw (1:56 PM)
Does Tillman count? Chris Iannetta? Howie Kendrick? I'm not sure what your standard is. I still like guys like Matt Wieters and Gordon Beckham, but have they non-performed enough?

Cliff B (Chicago, IL)
I heard you on All Night w/ Jason Smith the other night. He was trying to tell you what a good signing Vlad Guerrero was for the O's because of his runs and RBI's last year. You quickly corrected him that those stats mean nothing and he laughed it off. After you went off the air, he continued to say how RBI and runs are the most important stats and that "OPS and all the other stuff, blah." Are so few ESPN people knowledgeable about statistical analysis?

Klaw (2:06 PM)
I think we have a lot of folks here who are aware of statistical analysis. Jason clings to his discredited stats for some reason I don't quite get.

Frankie Piliere, FanGraphs

12:44 [Comment From Orioles]
In order: Britton, Matusz, Arrieta, Tillman. Did I get that right? Can all these guys be valuable SP on a contending team?

12:45 Frankie Piliere: I think you nailed it. I have my doubts on Tillman but he's still got a lot of potential.

1:11 [Comment From Orioles Scouts]
How big an addition is Ron Hopkins to the O's scouting team?

1:11 Frankie Piliere: As a big a scouting move as you can make. He's excellent.

1:27 [Comment From Aman Reaka @bkmhoxx]
Scouting question. What makes a scout like Ron Hopkins so good? Other than experience, why are some scouts "good" and some arent? Other than the obvious answer of "results".

1:29 Frankie Piliere: Certain guys you can judge on results, but lower level guys you can't because they don't make the decisions. Hopkins has made good decisions. But, once you see these guys you get to know who the most diligent ones are, the most open minded, and how they are using past experiences to make judgments. Being a scout 20 years on its own doesn't make a good scout. It makes a world of difference if you are still open minded and use all those experiences though.

Jayson Stark, ESPN

Mitch (North Carolina)
Do you think the Orioles will end up with 85 wins or more this year?

Jayson Stark (1:09 PM)
I would have gone lower a week ago. I know that. I was thinking .500 would be a great year for that team coming out of spring training. Now I guess, my question is: Should I ever bet against Buck Showalter. They're 39-24 since he got there. They were the '62 Mets before he got there. He's David Copperfield, this guy. But I still think 85 is a little too high.

Jack (DC)
Can the Orioles be this season's Giants, Padres or Rays? Buck for the Hall of Fame if he turns this ship around this year, right?

Jayson Stark (1:13 PM)
Boy, lots of Orioles questions today. Orioles fans live! I like them. I just don't see them as a 90-win kind of team. I don't see where they have pitching in the same class as those three teams you named, despite how they've pitched so far. And in the AL East, that's going to be the big separator.

Anatomy of a Miracle Season

2011-04-08T14:30:00.003-04:00

I used to do a yearly preview called "How the Orioles Can Win the East" in which I would talk about 5 things that could go wrong with the other AL East teams and 5 things which could break Baltimore's way and how all these things could combine to allow the Orioles to take the division. It was tongue in cheek but the underlying premise was absolutely true. Miracle seasons happen but they happen for a number of converging reasons; lots of stuff goes right for your team and a lot of stuff goes wrong for the opposition.

This season, part of that equation is falling into place. The pre-season favorite Red Sox and the defending AL East champs are both winless through 6 games. The Yanks are getting old and have questions about their rotation. If you tell me that the toughest competition in the division will be the Blue Jays, well, I'd almost give the Orioles a puncher's chance at making the playoffs.

But the other half of the equation is not. Despite the 5-1 start, the Orioles have already seen Brian Matusz and Justin Duchscherer got to the DL, Jeremy Guthrie hospitalized, Luke Scott missing games with a groin injury and JJ Hardy missing a game with a cryptic ribcage injury.

For the Orioles to surprise, pretty much everything would have to go right and so far, that has not been the case. Overall, the offense has been sluggish. There have been various levels of injury already. The young pitchers haven't all come out of the gate spectacularly.

Even though it is only 6 games into the season, I could be more optimistic about the 2011 season if the Orioles were keeping up their end of the bargain. As it is, we can enjoy it while it lasts but this isn't 1989.

If this was going to be a miracle season, things would be going better for Baltimore right about now.

A Quick Explanation of the Oriole Nickname

2011-04-06T11:50:00.000-04:00

Ran across this yesterday. (Think it was a link from NBC Sports' Hardball Talk...) He provides a little blurb about the origin of each team nickname in Major League Baseball. The Oriole entry:

Baltimore Orioles: Originally the St. Louis Browns, team owners changed the name for the 1954 season. The name “Orioles” had been used for decades by Baltimore minor league and club teams.

Really? That's all you got? Weak. Sauce.

He references Wikipedia as a source. But here's a whole page on Wikipedia that gives brief backgrounds on the origin of each teams nickname. Here's just a portion of the Orioles entry:

The team's nickname is taken from the baltimore oriole (Icterus galbula) a small blackbird of the passerine family. The bird received its name in about 1808 from the fact that the male's colors resembled those on the coat of arms of George Calvert, Lord Baltimore, who was part of the Calvert family that established the Maryland colony in the 17th century. The baltimore oriole is also the state bird of Maryland.

Most of the professional baseball teams in Baltimore have been dubbed the "Orioles", with a few exceptions.

The earliest Baltimore teams, in the early 1870s, were called "Lord Baltimore" and "Maryland" respectively. These clubs were short-lived. The "Lord Baltimore" team chose the unusual team color of yellow, and was often called the Canaries or the Yellow Stockings. The Maryland club was simply called the "Marylands", in the pluralized style of the day.

The first club to be called the Baltimore Orioles was a charter member of the American Association in 1882. When the AA folded after the 1891 season, four of its teams were brought into the expanded National League, including the Orioles. These Orioles became a dominant team in the league during the 1890s, in part because of their innovations and their tough, relentless play. The term "Old Oriole" is sometimes used to describe a player whose aggressive style fits the legacy of those 1890s teams. The team's fortunes took a downturn in 1899 when many of its stars were transferred to the Brooklyn Dodgers, and Baltimore was one of four teams contracted out of existence in 1900.

And there's more if you care to read it but that's the gist of the story. And all the writeups are pretty informative.

If Jeff Edelstein had thoroughly used Wikipedia as a reference, his "story" would not have been peppered with "probably" and "possibly".

Random Thoughts About the Oriole Winning Streak

2011-04-05T22:30:00.001-04:00

Yeah, for the Orioles, four games IS a streak. Here are some random thoughts that don't deserve full posts of their own...

*****

With all the veteran power bats the Orioles signed over the winter, it has been the 5'9" Brian Roberts who has been fueling the offense during Baltimore's 4-0 start.

Being a leadoff hitter, Roberts doesn't hit a ton of multi-run homers. He has two 3-run homers and 8 RBI in four games this season.

But this kind of start is not without precedent. If we go back to Roberts' breakout season of 2005, he also had 2 homers in the first four games with 5 RBI.

Will Roberts repeat his April from 2005? That month he hit .379/.459/.726 with 3 doubles, 3 triples and 8 home runs. Probably not. But April has historically been one of his best months. A hot Roberts (and a hot Nick Markakis) could carry the offense a long way until the big bats come around.

*****

The Oriole pitching staff is holding their opponents to a .191 BABIP which is outstanding. However, they are giving up line drives at a 16% or .160 rate so far. The quick rule of thumb is to add .12 to the LD% to get an expected BABIP. So, the .191 BABIP is way below the expected .280 BABIP derived from the LD%. It's a small sample size and you would expect fluctuations like this over four games. But you should also expect some of those line drives to start dropping in for hits at some point.

*****

The Orioles' April schedule is pretty daunting. They play (or have played) series with Tampa, Detroit, Texas, New York, Cleveland, Minnesota, New York again, Boston and Chicago. That is a long, challenging month.

However, the May schedule has series against Chicago, Kansas City, Tampa, Seattle, Tampa again, two short series with Boston and New York, Washington, Kansas City, Oakland and Seattle again.

If the Orioles can stay hot and keep their heads above water for April, they have easier times ahead in May. This team could keep winning well into June.

*****

After Monday's game, Matt Palmer from PressBoxOnline.com wrote this:

As an observation, the Orioles are better with the additions of Vladimir Guerrero and Derrek Lee so far. That might seem like an early judgement, but the other hitters in the lineup are benefiting from the veteran presence. Guerrero's only batting .125 with no RBIs. Lee is batting just .214 with 0 RBIs. Brian Roberts, at the top of the order, is batting .294, however, with eight RBIs and two home runs. Nick Markakis, batting second, went 3 for 3 in the opener and is batting a scorching .429 with six hits. Pitchers are fearing what's coming after Roberts and Markakis instead of fearing the formidable duo at the top of the order.

First, I would direct Mr. Palmer here for proof that lineup protection does not exist or at the very least is incredibly overstated.

Second, even if I were to accept the concept of lineup protection, there are some logic fails with this argument. The guys hitting .125 and .214 are providing so much scary offense that Roberts and Markakis are seeing more good pitches? And how come Lee isn't benefiting from Vlad hitting behind him in the lineup? Shouldn't he be seeing better pitches too? If so, why is he hitting .214? And Matt Wieters has hit well so far. Is he benefiting from Adam Jones' .125 batting average too? And shouldn't Roberts and Markakis be seeing more fastballs? Because they're not. Roberts is seeing fastballs at about the same rate as he ever has. Markakis is actually seeing far less. There are a lot of holes in that story.

The top of the order is succeeding in spite of the "veteran presence" through four games, not because of it. Unless you believe in wizardry, voodoo and The Force.

Q&A with Shorebirds Broadcaster Brett Lasky

2011-04-05T07:00:00.003-04:00

Delmarva Shorebirds Director of Broadcasting Bret Lasky was kind enough to answer a few questions about some of the Baby Birds. Obviously, nobody saw more of the Shorebirds last season than Lasky so I was curious to hear his perspective on some of the players coming through the Oriole farm system.

Dempsey's Army: Who was the most impressive position player you watched last year?

Brett Lasky: Amongst the guys that we’re in Delmarva for the whole season, I’d have to say Ty Kelly. He’s a switch hitter with deceptive power. His splits weren’t great last year but I think they will improve with experience. He was also the best defensive infielder that the Shorebirds had. I was impressed with Trent Mummey when he came to Delmarva late in the year. His statistics weren’t gaudy but you could tell when you watched him take batting practice that the ball just flies off his bat. Obviously, he also has good speed.

DA: The most impressive Shorebirds pitcher from 2010?

BL: Tough one here, but I’ll say Bobby Bundy. He’s competitive, young and really determined. He was outstanding in the second half of the season. He tossed a nine-inning complete game against the Hickory Crawdads – it was the first nine-inning complete game by a Shorebirds pitcher in a couple years. Bundy has a really good head on his shoulders and he is a tireless worker. One of the hardest working pitchers I’ve seen.

DA: Jonathan Schoop, Manny Machado and Mychal Givens: where are all these middle infielders going to play?

BL: I don’t think anyone but Ryan Minor and the Orioles brass know the answer to this one. What I will say is that Ryan does a great job of making sure everyone gets his repetitions. I was here when they began to convert L.J. Hoes to a second baseman. The roving instructors and the staff really do a nice job of teaching – especially when guys are unfamiliar with certain positions.

DA: Assuming his health is fine, is Matt Hobgood expected to come back to Delmarva to start the year?

BL: I know the off season injury set him back a little, so I’m not sure. Matt showed some good stuff at times last season. I vividly remember a nasty breaking ball he throw against the Lakewood BlueClaws at First Energy Park. It had some serious movement. I’m definitely interested to see how the Orioles decide to progress Matt.

DA: Outside of Manny Machado, who is the player you are looking forward to seeing play in Delmarva this season?

BL: Mychal Givens – I only had the chance to watch Mychal play a handful of games before the injury last season in Greensboro so I’m eager to see him play on a consistent basis. I talked to him a couple times around the cages and he was very mature for his age. Obviously he has a cannon for an arm and I’m looking forward to seeing what his bat will produce.

DA: Inexplicably, I am a big Justin Dalles fan. What's the word on his health this offseason?

BL: I’m a huge Dalles fan as well. I haven’t had a chance to talk to Dalles this off season. Last year was a tough year for Dalles because of all the setbacks. Hopefully, he stays healthy and has an outstanding year. One thing that I will say about Dalles is that he is a really good clubhouse guy – he got along with all of his teammates.

DA: 3B Tyler Kolodny. Great control of the zone, great power. Any word on a possible position change for him? Will he come back to Delmarva after finishing the season in NY-Penn League?

BL: No word yet on Tyler Kolodny. Raw power, hard working kid. Two things that come to my mind when I hear his name. He was always first to the clubhouse and last to leave two years ago here in Delmarva. If he were to be assigned here, I would be very interested to see what Kolodny is like as a 23-year old. Think about this – he led the Shorebirds in home runs last year with 10 and he only played 41 games.

DA: C Michael Ohlman came into the system with a fair amount of hype. At 19, was he just overmatched facing Sally league competition last season?

BL: He had his growing pains, no doubt. However, you could definitely see the potential. I remember a game last year against Lakewood when Ohlman smacked a couple doubles into the gaps and deep up against the wall. Another guy that would be an interesting watch because he has been here before.

DA: Most impressive non-Shorebird player you saw in the Sally last season?

BL: I’ll give you a couple. Everybody ranted and raved about Phillies prospect Jonathan Singleton. He’s got all the god given talents and he’s smooth at the plate and in the field. He’s definitely up there. Two guys that hurt the Shorebirds last year that not as many people talked about were Justin Bloxom and Destin Hood of the Hagerstown Suns. In 16 games against the Shorebirds, Bloxom batted .412 with 12 RBIs. Hood hit .337 with 10 RBIs against the Shorebirds.

DA: Delmarva is going to be hosting the Sally League All-Star Game this year. Are you going to get to call the game?

BL: Yeah, I’ll be on the call on our flagship radio station 960 The Sports Animal. I’m really looking forward to it. I was in Myrtle Beach back in 2008 when they hosted the California v. Carolina All-Star Game and I remember all the excitement that surrounded that game. Pablo Sandoval, now of the San Francisco Giants, won the home run derby. I’m wondering who will be the first to the majors from the 2011 SAL All-Star Game.

The Shorebirds kick off their season on April 7th at Perdue Stadium in Salisbury. Hey, you can meet Chris Hoiles too! Lots of interesting talent at Delmarva this season, get out there and check them out.

Juggernaut!: Tigers Can't Slow Down Orioles

2011-04-04T19:19:00.000-04:00

Butt Bump!

The Orioles opened up Camden Yards for the 2011 season in style dispatching of the Detroit Tigers 5-1 before a sellout crowd this afternoon.

If you've been watching the Orioles play so far, you've seen something rare. The Orioles have not gone 4-0 since 1997.

25-year-old RHP Jake Arrieta held the Tiger offense (a lineup that put up 19 runs during their 3 game series with the Yankees) to a single run over 6 innings. Relievers Jason Berken and Koji Uehara held Detroit to one hit over the last 3 innings to lock down the game.

The big offensive blow came, again, from Brian Roberts. Roberts went deep against SP Rick Porcello for yet another 3-run homer to break a 1-1 tie in the 5th and put the Orioles ahead for good.

I liked Arrieta's poise this afternoon. He only struck out 3 and walked 2. He got the ball up in the zone and few times and gave up some hard hits. But he defense let him down on a couple of occasions. Adam Jones broke back instead on in and turned a flyout into a single and Mark Reynolds bobbled a sure double play ball in the middle of a Tiger rally. But Arrieta did not rattle. He kept throwing strikes and although he threw 99 pitches to get through 6 innings, he held the line.

Now the nitpicking...the offense is not hitting well overall. Roberts is not going to keep hitting 3-run bombs. Luke Scott is day-to-day. Vladimir Guerrero can't buy a hit and Jones looks no better as they both flail at everything thrown their way. Nobody but Roberts has hit a home run. The pitching staff has been fairly lucky and been bailed out by great defensive plays early. Signs point to a regression unless performances improve.

But for now, the Orioles are taking care of business. The performances from the young hurlers are extremely encouraging and should give them a bit of confidence moving forward. Scott could play on Wednesday. Roberts, Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters and JJ Hardy are hitting well. The defense, overall, is playing pretty well.

Jeremy Guthrie is in the hospital with pneumonia. Brad Bergesen will have to make a start on Wednesday. This little winning streak could come to an end very soon.

But winning is always better than losing. The Orioles had some really bad luck on their way to a 5-18 April a year ago. I'll certainly take a few good bounces our way. And I can't wait to see the young guys take the mound again.

(Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)

This Ain't 2010...Orioles Pull Off Sweep

2011-04-04T07:35:00.000-04:00

This is a bit different, isn't it?

The Orioles completed a series sweep of the defending AL East champion Rays on Sunday to start the season 3-0.

How did this happen? For all the talk of the improved lineup this season, the Orioles did not win on the strength of their bats. The O's have hit just .222/.250/.313 for the young season which leads you to believe that they are lucky to have scored 12 runs in the series.

No, the Oriole fortunes for 2011 still rest on the strength of their young rotation and that's how they beat the Rays. The three starters in the series gave up just one run combined and the entire staff gave up just three runs overall.

Can the Young Guns keep this up? Chris Tillman and Zach Britton have done their part and now Jake Arrieta will take the hill against the Tigers at Camden Yards. He'll have to be ready to go. When your $8 million veteran cleanup hitter is OPSing .333, you aren't going to score a lot of runs.

Hopefully, that will change during this next series...

This Week in Chat - 4/3/2011

2011-04-03T21:45:00.000-04:00

Where we distill all the weekly baseball chats down to their Oriole-centric essence...

Jonah Keri, FanGraphs

11:38 [Comment From kyle]
guerrero HOF career?

11:39Jonah Keri:
Vlad, of course. Yes, I'd vote him in, even if he retired today.

11:47 [Comment From Jason]
McLouth, Aaron hill and mark Reynolds, tell me why these guys do or do not bounce back this year

11:48 Jonah Keri: Hill
BABIP'd...what was it, .196 last year? Maybe the easiest bounceback pick in the league. Not a big McLouth fan. I could see a bump for Reynolds, sure. He's still fairly young.

Dave Cameron, Fangrpahs

11:41 [Comment From JTrea81]
Am I crazy or should Zach Britton have made the O's rotation?

11:41 Dave Cameron:
The O's are just playing with his service time. He'll be up in a month.

12:21 [Comment From Kolbe]
Do the Fighting Showalters break .500 this year?

12:21 Frankie Piliere:
Nope, division is just too potent.

12:15 [Comment From Matt]
Given that your org rankings seem reasonable (give or take minor quibbles) how would you change baseball to give teams like Jays and Orioles a decent shot?

12:16 Dave Cameron: I will continue to pound this angle forever - put a team in Brooklyn. Diluting the Yankees revenue stream would fix a lot of problems.

12:29 [Comment From Ian]
When do you see Zach Britton getting the call back up? Potential impact arm?

12:30 Frankie Piliere: He'll be down there a month tops I think. Very high impact guy. Potential #1, easily a #2. Very mature already and has the arsenal to go with it.

12:48 [Comment From Kolbe]
Santana, Posey or Weiters.. Who are you taking?

12:48 Frankie Piliere:
Posey

Keith Law, ESPN

Jeff (Baltimore)
Who do the O's take in the draft? Starling?

Klaw (1:25 PM)
The only substantive thing I've heard on them is a preference for a college player, which would probably put them on Hultzen, Bradley, Jungmann, Gray.

Phil (NJ)
Still holding out hope for Wieters? What's his ceiling now?

Klaw (1:29 PM)
Yes. Unchanged.

Marc Hulett, FanGraphs

12:03 [Comment From D]
Manny Machado's ranking seems high. Is it + defence or his bat that has him that high?

12:03 Marc Hulet:
Machado's ranking might seem high but he has the potential to play good defense at shortstop while also displaying plus hitting skills... As we've seen recently, the pool of quality offensive shortstops in the MLB is dwindling.

John Manuel, Baseball America

Jeff Sullivan (Belchertown, MA):
Manny Machado or Francisco Lindor?

John Manuel:
Machado, though Lindor does seem to have some helium for this year's draft. Machado's bat projects to have more impact potential than Lindor's.

Chris Tillman Takes a Step

2011-04-03T11:31:00.000-04:00

The Orioles went to 2-0 last night as they continued to get amazing performances from all areas. Jeremy Guthrie threw 8 shutouts innings Friday night. Brian Roberts tripling Friday and hitting a three-run homer last night. The great defensive plays by Felix Pie, Matt Wieters and, of course Nick Markakis.

And last night, Chris Tillman, a guy whose spot in the rotation was in jeopardy less than a week ago, stymied the opposition for 6 innings last night.

Chris Tillman really needed to make the most of his opportunities early in the year. Last night, he took a step in the right direction as he threw 6 no-hit innings against the Tampa Bay Rays. How did he do that? Plain and simple, he threw more strikes. At least relatively more.

PitchFX data generated for the great tool on BrooksBaseball.net.

Tillman stayed in or around the strike zone pretty well last night. He threw 57.4% of his pitches for strikes. He only exceeded that percentage three times all last season when he threw 6 or more innings. Not surprisingly, his line looked very good for two of those games and he got the win.

Tillman's stuff plays in the zone. He froze hitters, got swinging strikes and had the lineup off balance all night. There were only two well-struck balls all night by my count.

Tillman seems to have gained a bit more control by taking a little off his pitches.

Tillman got the best results when he kept his fastball between 88-92 MPH. Sure, he can dial it up an hit 93-94. But the 90 MPH fast ball paired with that curve...well, when he's throwing them for strikes it's a pretty potent combination.

Tillman has not has control issues in AAA. I believe he is still gaining confidence that his stuff is good enough to get major league hitters out and as his confidence grows, he will attack the zone more and get more results like last night.

And yeah, he walked three guys and he needed 101 pitches to get through 6 innings. It was not a wholly masterful performance. But my advocacy for Tillman in the rotation has not been that he is a finished product but that he needs to improve on his game in the majors. And last night, he took a big step. Now he needs to build on it against the Tigers in Baltimore.

Opening Day in Baltimore: Still a Hot Ticket

2011-04-01T07:40:00.000-04:00

Even after 13 years of losing, Opening Day at Camden Yards is still a hot ticket. But over at our sponsor TiqIQ, you can find Terrace Box seats for the home opener for just $44. And if you are looking to save even more cash, the tickets for Tuesday's game start at just $14. Check it out.

What? Well, of course this is a shameless shill for our sponsor. Support them! Help put gas in my car so I can get to Asheville, Rome, Baltimore, Sarasota and everywhere Oriole news may be happening this summer.

19th Century Nicknames for 21st Century Orioles

2011-03-31T15:30:00.003-04:00

I ran across this link on FanGraphs.com. The 19th-Century Baltimore Orioles Nickname Generator. And it was funny. For a minute or two. But it started repeating itself in short order. With all the "real" nicknames available from that colorful era, this was the best they could do?

So I decided to give my own nicknames to the current Baltimore Oriole roster. I used actual nicknames that were given to players who played for Baltimore teams prior to 1900 and tried to assign them as best I could. Here's what I came up with.

C "Medicine Matt" Wieters - I have no idea what this means but it's pretty bad ass. And Wieters could use a little of that in his game. "Rounding third and heading for home? Matt is waiting at the plate with your medicine..."

1B "Scoops" Lee - As a first baseman known for his good defense, Scoops seemed like a good name for a guy who can pick 'em out of the dirt. And Lee seems to be a likable guy and who wouldn't like a guy named "Scoops"?

2B "Dandy Brian" Roberts - A name given freely to players with boyish good looks, this seemed pretty appropriate for the diminutive but dreamy Roberts. And it rhymes with "dandelion"

SS "Dimples" Hardy - No, really. Google image him. He has them.

3B "Blondie" Reynolds - He had to trim his locks a bit but it still works for the fair-haired Reynolds.

RF "Rip" Markakis - I had a hard time with Nick but Rip seemed appropriate for a guy who laces line drives all over the park. And it sounds good with his last name.

CF "Phenomenal" Jones - I have a feeling he'd like this name a lot. He's the most outgoing and flashy of the current crew. And it works well for a center fielder.

LF "Bloody Luke" Scott - Do I really have to elaborate?

DH "Papa" Guerrero - "Pa" was a common name given to elder players in the 1800's. "Papa" gives it a Spanish translation for the veteran slugger.

C "Boileryard" Fox - Doesn't Jake look like a dock worker or a pipefitter, something of that ilk? It fits.

IF "Stubby" Izturis - A name for players who are vertically challenged. Izzy's not that short really but it made me chuckle.

OF "Smiling Felix" Pie - Have you ever watched a game where this guy doesn't flash his dynamite smile? It was made for him.

IF "Sleepy Robert" Andino - Because sometimes he goes to sleep on the basepaths. Or in the field.

SP "Doc" Guthrie - These are starting to sound like names for dwarves now. "Doc" was often given to college guys who played the unrefined game of base. Guthrie is a veteran twirler who went to Stanford. And he's kind of cerebral on the mound. Close enough.

SP "Big Brian" or "Moose" Matusz - Brian needs a name with some intimidation factor. He is 6'4" so "Big" seemed good enough. I love "Moose" but, obviously, it conjures up memories of Mike Mussina. Couldn't decide so I listed both.

SP "Kid" Tillman - He made his MLB debut at 21 so it definitely applies. And doesn't it kind of make him sound sort of lovable and an outlaw at the same time? "Another perfect inning for Kid Tillman!"

SP "The Apollo of the Box" (Jake Arrieta) - This one requires a bit of explanation. Tony Mullane was a 19th century hurler who was ambidextrous. But he also was known for having the classic good looks of a Greek god. If fact, Mullane was so handsome that teams would ensure that he pitched on Ladies' Day promotions just to drum up more business. According to an informal poll on Twitter, the ladies love Jake Arrieta's "movie star" looks. And they both have/had moustaches. Done.

SP "Vinegar Brad" Bergesen - Some of the pitching staff needs a bit of edge, a hint of danger, some intimidation factor injected into their image. Again, I have no idea what it means but I might think twice about digging in against "Vinegar Brad".

RP "Lefty" Gonzalez - It's so simple and obvious but while I have had my doubts about Mike Gonzalez, Lefty Gonzalez sounds like a guy I HAVE to have on my team.

RP "Dirty Jim" Johnson - Again, the intimidation factor is high with this one. "Uh oh, Showalter's going to the mound and he's calling "Dirty Jim" in from the bullpen!" It worked for The Nasty Boys.

RP "Chippy" Accardo - He might throw one in at your hands. Sounds like he's itching for a fight.

RP "Tricky Jason" Berken - You could shorten this to "Tricky J" for a more modern flair. Sounds like a crafty junkballer.

RP "Buttercup" Rupe - Because somebody was getting that one.

RP "Osaka" Uehara - Lots of nicknames were assigned based on the players' place of birth. Jersey. Texas. Or my favorite, Egyptian Healey. Koji was born in Osaka and now he sounds like a villian from Kill Bill.

RP "Jumbo" Gregg - Gregg is 6'6" and 240 lbs. The name "Jumbo" was given to players of far slighter build back in the olden days.

Think any will stick?

Fearless Predictions - Baltimore Orioles 2011

2011-03-31T11:04:00.001-04:00

Looking at these predictions, they seem way less fearless than really obvious. At least some of them. But here they are anyway...

If Brian Roberts plays in 130 games, I'm going with 80 wins. If he ends up on the DL, 76 wins.

Zach Britton wins the AL Rookie of the Year. Yeah, Jeremy Hellickson is the odds on favorite but I think Britton comes up on the outside and catches him.

Adam Jones breaks out this season. A mild breakout, something like a .295/.340/.450. 20 home runs. But a breakout nonetheless.

I can't predict playing time but Nolan Reimold will finish the season with a higher OPS than Vladimir Guerrero. So will Luke Scott.

Jeremy Guthrie will, once again, have an ERA lower than his FIP. Probably significantly so.

Nick Markakis will hit 40 doubles. Again. Also will have at least a .360 OBP.

Matt Wieters hits 15 home runs. Anything else he does is anybody's guess.

Luke Scott will OPS north of .850.

Josh Rupe doesn't see May 15th in Baltimore. He sees it from Norfolk.

Zach Britton is in Baltimore before May 15th.

JJ Hardy will be a fan favorite by June 1st.

Matt Albers will outperform most of the Oriole pen while pitching for Boston.

Mark Hendrickson ends up playing a large role in the Oriole season. Take that as you will.

Mark Reynolds hits 30 homers and has 200 Ks.

Free Nolan Reimold

2011-03-30T18:45:00.001-04:00

"Yeah, great to see you too...again..."

So signing Vlad Guerrero has, for the moment, done exactly what I said it would do waaaay back before the Orioles had even signed him:

Vlad's signing would push Scott to left field, Felix Pie to the bench and Nolan Reimold to Norfolk. And that's fine. But what if Reimold goes to AAA and starts tearing it up for a couple months like he did in 2009? Assuming health for all the OF/1B/DH's involved, there is nowhere for him to play.

Nolan Reimold came to camp this spring ready to play. He finally looked healthy and fully recovered from his Achilles surgery. He ran well, played better defense (passable anyway) and hit like crazy. He controlled the strike zone, hit for power and generally looked like the guy who was a Rookie of the Year candidate in 2009.

And where did that get him? Banished to the AAA Norfolk Tides...because there is no room for him on the roster.

The guy needs to play. Some have diminished his value and called Reimold "overrated". But Reimold OPS'ed .831 in 2009...which is the same level of offense that Nick Markakis has provided over his five year career. (And yes...I'm throwing out 2010. He wasn't healthy. Period.) It's nothing to sneeze at. And if he can do that again or even improve on it...well, that's something this team needs to know before 2012's free agent season.

And this is not to disparage Guerrero at all. It was the combination of signing Derrek Lee and Guerrero that caused this situation. One or the other would have been great. Signing them both causes a logjam at positions where the O's have a guy on the farm ready to step in.

I said it then and I'll keep saying it. Reimold should be getting big league at bats. Now.

And until he does....I consider him exiled to Norfolk.

Orioles Trim 3 More, Put Duchscherer on DL

2011-03-30T13:09:00.002-04:00

The Orioles re-assigned RHP Zach Britton, IF Brendan Harris and C Craig Tatum to Norfolk today and placed oft-injured former All-Star Justin Duchscherer on the DL.

So the roster looks something like this.

The Infield:
1B Derrek Lee
2B Brian Roberts
SS JJ Hardy
3B Mark Reynolds
C Matt Wieters

This is as expected. Lee looks healthy now, as does Roberts. Hardy has hit well and looks great with the glove. Mark Reynolds looks like you would expect, at the plate and in the field and we are all just waiting for Matt Wieters to really hit although his defense has been sensational this spring.

The Outfield:
LF Luke Scott
CF Adam Jones
RF Nick Markakis
DH Vlad Guerrero

Again, no surprises here. Everyone has looked pretty good this spring, even with Scott's slow start at the plate.

The Bench:
C Jake Fox
IF Cesar Izturis
IF Robert Andino
OF Felix Pie

Jake Fox had a hot spring and beats out Craig Tatum for the backup. Some seem to think that Tatum is a far superior defensive catcher than Fox. I have seen very little evidence of that. Just because a guy can't hit, it doesn't automatically make him a good defensive catcher (see Paul Bako, 2007).

Robert Andino and Cesar Izturis both make the club. This seems redundant but I suppose there is still real concern about Roberts' health. Andino has all the physical skills to be Izzy's equal in the field and at least his equal at the plate (low bar and all). But he doesn't hustle. Ever. If you've read this blog for any time at all, you know I do not call out guys on this lightly. But I've watched him at the major league level and in AAA for two seasons now. And he doesn't hustle. Ever. He is subject to defensive lapses, baserunning gaffes and just plain doggin' it at really bad times. Andino and Izturis will not both co-exist on this roster long term. One of them is going.

Pie is out of options and is a prototypical fourth outfielder. He sticks and should all season.

Rotation:
SP Jeremy Guthrie
SP Brian Matusz
SP Brad Bergesen
SP Jake Arrieta
SP Chris Tillman

Guthrie is the Opening Day starter yet again. Matusz seem to be ready to go for his Saturday start. We don't know about Bergesen yet. Arrieta and Tillman have backed into the rotation at this point but I'm glad they are there.

The Bullpen
RP Kevin Gregg
RP Koji Uehara
RP Michael Gonzalez
RP Josh Rupe
RP Jason Berken
RP Jim Johnson
RP Jeremy Accardo

Gregg looks like he's the closer with that big contract and all. Uehara is healthy again...for now. That's great...for now. Gonzalez still doesn't look like the guy I watched in Atlanta for two seasons. I thought they overpaid for him but I thought he'd be better than this. Berken looks fine and Johnson looks really, really good. Accardo, who I thought would be a slightly more expensive version of Matt Albers, has looked very good, throwing strikes and getting swinging strikes. Kudos to the Oriole scouting department for rescuing him from the Toronto farm system.

Josh Rupe made the team while Mark Hendrickson was released. Rupe didn't look so great this spring save for the ERA. Hendrickson is no great shakes but a useful middle reliever. I doubt very sincerely that Rupe will be even that. Hendrickson may decide to report to Norfolk and be called up when needed. But he will probably move on. This may be a blessing in disguise as younger arms in AAA get a shot at the Baltimore pen when Rupe inevitably flames out.

Rick Vandenhurk cleared waivers and will be in the starting rotation for Norfolk.

As for Nolan Reimold...we'll discuss that later...

Jake Fox is Rude...Evidently

2011-03-29T12:05:00.000-04:00

Faux pas to deep left!

From the Oriole Insider blog at BaltimoreSun.com:

The Orioles had runners on second and third and no outs in the eighth inning today when Fox came to the plate against Tigers minor leaguer Chance Ruffin. The most important aspect of this story is the score was 13-3 at the time, and both teams had subbed out most of their regulars. Ruffin started the at-bat with three straight balls, but Fox decided to take a rip at a 3-0 pitch in a clear take situation.

It certainly qualified as a breach of baseball etiquette. Swinging 3-0 in a 10-run game with no outs in the eighth inning with a minor league pitcher on the mound is a decent way to make sure you get a fastball in the ribs in your next at-bat. The average fan may not think it was a big deal but Orioles manager Buck Showalter and Tigers manager Jim Leyland certainly did.

I'll never fully understand this but...what exactly is the big deal here? If Buck Showalter had the take sign on or had VERY SPECIFICALLY told Fox to start taking on 3-0 this spring, that's fine. Ignoring your manger is worthy of his scorn.

But this doesn't appear to be the case. Both managers were angry and it seemed to be a simple breach of "baseball etiquette".

But would it have been OK if he swung away at 2-0? 3-1? Swung at the first pitch? Which is it, really? And what would be the difference? And isn't this a spring game? What's the big deal?

"Oh man, you never played the game. You wouldn't understand." Well, I've watched plenty. And when I was watching this 30-3 gem the Rangers put on us....NOBODY STOPPED SWINGING! They scored 16 of those 30 runs in the 8th and 9th innings! They swung away like Merrill!

What did Tigers manager Jim Leyland think about the situation?

“Look, once and for all, it’s not going to affect the team at all. All these people are going to get dramatic about this (expletive), it’s not going to affect this team one bit. Trust me. That’s all reading material. Everybody gets all upset, gets real dramatic ..."

Oh wait...he wasn't talking about Jake Fox swinging at a 3-0 pitch. He was talking about his starting first baseman getting arrested for driving while fall-down drunk! So excuse me if I don't trust HIS sense of perspective! Perhaps Fox could have been forgiven for swinging at a 3-0 pitch....IF HE WAS REALLY, REALLY DRUNK!

(pant, pant, pant)

I mean, really. Screw that noise.

The Oriole Rotation Suddenly in Limbo

2011-03-29T08:00:00.001-04:00

Brian Matusz was hit by a line drive in today's simulated game and his status for Saturday's start is in jeopardy.

Brad Bergesen was struck in a similar fashion last week, albeit worse, by all reports.

That leaves Jeremy Guthrie, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta and Zach Britton as the only completely healthy starters just three days from Opening Day.

Justin Duchscherer is not due back until April 21st at the earliest. The situations for Matusz and Bergesen remain more cloudy. It is not known if either will be ready for their respective starts on Saturday and Sunday.

The fates seem to be conspiring to give Chris Tillman a spot in the rotation. Eliminating Zach Britton from the conversation (if Britton is sent to Norfolk, it won't be due to performance), Tillman has the lowest ERA of the spring and a quick calculation of FIP shows he has the second lowest FIP (4.29) behind Bergesen (4.20).

But Tillman, seemingly, wasn't given a real fair shake coming into Spring Training. He was behind Jake Arrieta in the competition for the rotation from the beginning. And even though he outpitched nearly everybody else, the organization was tyring to find any way to send him back to Norfolk. With Bergesen, Matusz and Duchscherer banged up (to varying degrees), Tillman may sneak into the rotation and get his shot after all.

The team does not need a fifth starter until April 10th. But Matusz and Bergesen would both have to be healthy to push Tillman to Norfolk. Tillman's going north. And he'd better take advantage of the situation if he wants to stay there.

Orioles Cut 8; Nolan Reimold and Mark Hendrickson Among Cuts

2011-03-28T12:55:00.000-04:00

From the Official Oriole press release:

ORIOLES TRIM SPRING ROSTER BY EIGHT

The Orioles today announced eight spring training roster cuts, bringing their spring roster to 30 players.

The Orioles optioned OF NOLAN REIMOLD to Triple-A Norfolk and OF RANDY WINN asked for, and was granted, his unconditional release.

Non-roster invitees LHP CLAY RAPADA, LHP MARK HENDRICKSON, RHP DAVID RISKE, RHP RYAN DRESE, RHP PAT EGAN and INF NICK GREEN have been assigned to minor league camp.

With the moves, the Orioles have 30 players in camp including 15 pitchers (one non-roster invitee), five outfielders, seven infielders (one non-roster invitees) and three catchers.

The Orioles have 39 players on their 40-man major league roster, with 28 of them remaining in camp.

Can Kevin Millwood Win in New York?

2011-03-28T11:14:00.000-04:00

So I saw this exchange on Twitter on Friday...

Then about the same time, Craw of Camden Depot had left a comment on my "What is Curt Schilling had remained an Oriole?" post directing me to Jeff Zimmerman's post on FanGraphs about a formula he had devised for extimating wins based on ERA and run support. I put the formula into an Excel spreadsheet and decided to find out who was right. Could Kevin Millwood win 15 games for the Yankees this season?

Projected Winning % = 0.112(Run Support)-0.105(ERA)+0.446
with an R-squared = 0.827

Projected Wins = 0.7 * Games Started * Projected Winning %

I took Millwood's ERA from last season, gave him the same number of starts and gave him the Yankee run support (5.3 r/g) from last season. That netted 10.9 wins which we can round up to 11. However, Millwood pitched better than his ERA would indicate last season when you examine his FIP and xFIP numbers.

His xFIP was 4.66 and since his Marcel projections put him at 4.68 this season, that seemed like a reasonable assumption to make. Plugging in a 4.66 ERA over 31 starts with the 5.3 runs per game of support gives him 12 wins (11.9).

But what if the Yankees score more? Two seasons ago, the Yanks scored 5.6 runs per game. Using that number with the 4.66 ERA, that gives him 13 wins.

Now, while all this shows that Millwood would fall short, if I plug CC Sabathia's numbers into the calculations, he should have only won 17 games. He actually won 21. That Yankee offense could bring a couple extra wins. That would be 15 wins for Millwood, if everything broke just right.

Millwood's ERA by month for 2010:

ERA
April      3.38
May        4.29
June       8.82
July      10.66
August     3.54
September  3.82

It's one thing to go through a rough patch for a last place team like the Orioles. One has to wonder if Millwood would get the chance to make 31 starts for the Yankees if he hit a similar rough patch. Since he's starting the season in AAA, that makes the odds of getting 30 or more starts even less likely.

So, if Millwood is able to pitch as well as he did last season AND it actually shows up in his ERA AND the Yankee offense performs a little bit better than it did last year AND he gets 31 or more starts AND he gets a little luck...he could win 15 for the Yankees this season. But it seems pretty unlikely.

However, I do think he will surprise a bit and provide quality innings for New York this season. And double digit wins are a definite possibility.

This Week in Chat - 3/26/11

2011-03-27T11:45:00.001-04:00

Various Oriole related opinions from various chat sessions around the web:

David Shoenfield, ESPN

Matt (Charlotte)
Between Brian Matsuz, Zach Britton & Jake Arrieta, which one do you see as having the better 2011 season for the Orioles?

David Schoenfield (3:15 PM)
Definitely Matusz. His numbers once Showalter took over last year were very, very good.

David Schoenfield (3:15 PM)
Our scouting/minor league guru Keith Law LOVES Britton, by the way. That could be a really nice 1-2 lefty combo for the O's in a couple years.

Jim Callis, Baseball America

Chris (S.I.N.Y): Who makes the biggest impact in the big leagues this season. Gibson, Drabek, Pineda, Britton, McGee or Banuales?

Jim Callis: I think Gibson. Britton may be the best prepared to succeed right now, but he's on a bad team. Banuelos is intriguing, but the Yankees are going to limit him to 140 or so innings, so he may not get a ton of big league starts.

Jonah Keri, FanGraphs

[Comment From Lost in Europe]
When does Britton get a shot with the big club?
1:42
Jonah Keri: I think he's up this season. Could see June/July, to avoid Super 2 status. Love heavy-GB pitchers.

Frankie Pilere, FanGraphs

[Comment From Mozelles]
What team is this years Padres?

12:35
Frankie Piliere: They aren't going to compete seriously for a playoff spot because of the division but the Orioles are going to be at least a very difficult spoiler this year.

[Comment From Luke]
Percentage chance of Rendon or Cole being available to the Orioles at #4????

1:30
Frankie Piliere: 20%. Arbitrary number probably

Dave Cameron, FanGraphs

11:59
[Comment From Jay]
Thoughts on Erik Bedard this year?

12:00
Dave Cameron: He's basically impossible to project, right? He's healthy until he's not, and in general, there aren't any real warning signs with him. He pitches well, then comes off the mound and says his arm hurts. He's throwing really well in Arizona, but who knows what that actually means. His history says he can't be counted on for more than 100 innings, but who really knows, right?

12:04
[Comment From os]
Zach Britton's gonna be a beast - what's your opinion of him this year and long term?

12:04
Dave Cameron: I'm a sucker for high velocity ground ball guys, so Britton is one of the young arms that I'm pretty high on. I think he'll come up mid-summer and be one of the O's better pitchers pretty quickly.

12:07
[Comment From Prince Fielder]
do you see me eating crab cakes in Baltimore for the 2012 season?

12:07
Dave Cameron: Not unless they now have vegetarian crab.

12:20
[Comment From Prince Fielder]
Do you see me eating veggie subs in Baltimore for the 2012 season?

12:20
Dave Cameron: Certainly possible. I'd put Toronto in the mix as well.

Keith Law, ESPN

Mick (Colorado)
Hi KL,O's have targeted HS types in recent drafts, do you think they continue in that direction?

Klaw (3:29 PM)
I have heard they're more inclined to go college this year, although it's early and if the right college guy isn't there I'm sure they'll consider a HS guy. But at worst they'll have Jed Bradley, Hultzen, Gray, and Jungmann all staring them in the face.

Steve (NYC)
You like Travis Snider to bust out this year? 275/350/500 with 30 bombs unreasonable?

Klaw (3:35 PM)
I had Snider, Justin Upton, Wieters, and Bruce all on my breakouts list last year. So, 1) the list sucked and 2) I still like all four guys. (Bruce did break out in the second half, a level I think he'll continue to achieve.)

John (New Brunswick, NJ)
Is Jake Fox legit? Seems like he has the underlying skills, just needs the PT.

Klaw (3:56 PM)
No, PT will be held down by his limited bat.