Felix Pie May Be Out for 3 Months

The only bright side to this is the outfield depth the O's have...

Roch Kubatko is reporting that Felix Pie has a back injury and could miss up to three months:

Pie went on the disabled list April 16 with an injury classified as a strained muscle in his upper back, but further examination today revealed a more serious problem.

There's been no talk of surgery, and Pie is debating whether to stay here or report to Sarasota to rehab after an extended period of rest.

President of baseball operations Andy MacPhail confirmed the injury a few minutes ago and compared it to the one suffered by reliever Jim Miller a few years ago.

"Left alone, I'm told - and they have significant medical information on this - the thing will heal itself as quickly or more quickly than if you did something on a surgical basis," MacPhail said. "But it's going to take some time to go through the process that it has to go through."

Not great news given that Pie looked to be a much improved player at the plate in 2010 and certainly looked better in the field than he did at the beginning of 2009.

I suppose the bright side is that Nolan Reimold and Luke Scott will be playing nearly every day.

Lou Montanez, your time has come. You wanted an opportunity and this is it.

Anatomy of a Streak-Breaker

Courtesy of FanGraphs.com:




As you would expect, Ty Wigginton was the offensive hero with .252 WPA for the game, a total that will rank among the best of the year. Nick Markakis chipped in with a .092 WPA. Brian Matusz had .108 WPA with 6.1 IP and Jim Johnson, a recent goat, kicked in .062 WPA in 2 innings of relief.

Can the winning continue? Maybe. But the injuries hurt, pun unintended.

OF Felix Pie, 2B Brian Roberts and likely 3B Miguel Tejada will miss the series with Seattle. That hurts the struggling offense. But if there's one offense on the level of Baltimore's, it's the Mariners.

Seattle has only scored 3 more runs than the O's and that's good news for Brad Bergesen. If he can't get back on track in a pitcher's park (Safeco) against a punchless lineup (only 5 homers all season), then he may never get it back.

The bottom line is that the O's have a puncher's chance in this series.

As a bonus, you'll get to see 2B Justin Turner (perhaps a player in the middle infield for Baltimore in 2011) and OF Lou Montanez (who has been buried in Norfolk by Baltimore's infield depth). Yeah, that won't help the W-L ledger but I've been curious to see how Turner will handle big league pitching and all those "Sweet Lou" worshippers should come out of the woodwork to hope that Lou shows enough to at least be trade fodder in July.

I'm sure you're all sick of my sunny optimism by now but...Let's Go O's!

ESH Fantasy League Update: 4/19/10

We're a couple weeks into the season and I thought I check up to see how my team in the Eutaw Street Hooligans league was doing. Here was the pre-season commentary from the ESH crew on my team, Ghost of Joe Kelly.

Not sure how I feel about this team. Three Red Sox, Johnny Damon, Denard Span, Placido Polanco? Rough. Slightly above average offense on the starting side. Bench, not so sure. Average pitching.

Of course, I am King of the Waiver Wire. Not that they would know that. So I made a few moves in the preseason to help the cause. The results so far?

Wait. What's this? You mean the guy who talked no preseason trash at all is comfortably in first place? Let's take a look here...

The only real competition is in the Top 5 already. Only two of them are bloggers (as far as I know) as Matt from Baltimore Sports Report (Real Pit Beef) and ESH's Tom Ludlow (Det. Tom Ludlow) bring up the rear of the Top 5. My only real competition at this point comes from ESH readers (I presume). Kevin Paul of Wife Hates Baseball and Stacey of Camden Chat (The Kekambas) are doing their best to emulate the Baltimore Orioles in their fantasy lives. (Especially Stacey...a distant 16th!) Time to step up your games Blog-O-Sphere!

So how have a managed this domination so early in the season?

1. Saves - I lead the league in Saves with a conglomerate of Heath Bell, Carlos Marmol, Octavio Dotel and Chris Perez. the lesson? You don't need a top shelf closer to compete in this category.

2. WHIP - The team of "average" starters stands at second in WHIP, a good sign that my mediocre (6th) ERA will improve.

3. OBP - Ghost of Joe Kelley is second in OBP with a .381 mark and, as a result, is also second in runs scored.

4. The Waiver Wire - Ian Desmond, Shaun Marcum, David Freese, Brad Ziegler, Chris Perez and Jake Fox were all picked up off of waivers and all, to some degree, have been key players thus far. (Once Fox qualifies at catcher, even more impact.)

Anyway, the panic is starting to set in and I will be out there on the waiver wire waiting to take advantage. And soon, it will be the ennui and inactivity that will allow me to increase my lead. It is futile, I understand.

By the way, who is Joe Kelley? He's this guy.

Angelos Turns Down Ripken! Why Let Facts Get in the Way?

As you all know buy now, a Ken Rosenthal story surfaced on Friday that Cal Ripken, Jr. had approached the Orioles about a job in The Warehouse but was refused by Peter Angelos. A story like that is red meat for Oriole fans who pounced on it with all the enthusiasm and angst you would expect.

To be fair, if this story wasn't about Peter Angelos it wouldn't even be plausible. Angelos has made quite the bed over the years with his meddling, egotistical dealing with the team.

But it just seems like an odd story. The Orioles already work with Ripken in other ways. He owns the Aberdeen Ironbirds, an Oriole affiliate and Cal is involved with the Sarasota spring training deal with a Ripken Baseball Academy being built near Ed Smith Stadium. Why would they be so averse to partnering with Ripken in other ways?

Add to this the fact that Angelos, wisely, went public to deny the story and further stated that if Cal wanted to work for the team, he was more than happy to listen.

But the denial doesn't have the legs that the original rumor has. Even this morning, the Cal snub is being referred to by many media outlets with no hint of the denial. And even on blogs where the denial is acknowledged, the slicing and dicing of Angelos' words is hysterical (in more ways than one). "He must be evil! This must be true!"

But Peter Schmuck has it right...it doesn't really matter one way or the other.

Never mind that Angelos publicly rebutted the story and unequivocally denied that any offer from Cal had been made or refused. This really isn't about who actually said what and when. It's about a set of preconceived notions — some accurate, some not — that reached a hazardous intersection at the same time and caused another collision between fact and fantasy...

No matter how much Orioles Nation romanticizes Ripken, he has no experience running a major league baseball franchise, and he certainly has no experience in the kind of crisis management necessary to turn around this particular organization...

It might simply force fans to face an even harsher reality — that even Cal Ripken cannot save the Orioles.


And this is completely correct. I love Cal Ripken but he's not magic. It would be cool if he was involved in the organization, especially in the minors. And I'd like to hear Cal's side of the story. But this is hardly worth getting worked up about. O's fans are resembling Red Sox fans more every day.

edit: Cal has released a statement.

Nestor is looking to spin this as a "ball's in your court" volley from Cal...looks to me like they've had vague discussions at best. Cal also refutes the statement that Angelos did not want Cal to get credit for a turnaround in Baltimore.

1-10

Delmarva Shorebirds...Some Video

Nothing soothes my baseball psyche like minor league baseball. And in the midst of the Baltimore losing streak, I could use some soothing.

Here's some (shaky) video from the Delmarva Shorebird's recent swing south.

Matt Hobgood's A-ball Debut:




Mike Devereaux Throwing BP



SP Tony Butler Throwing to C Justin Dalles in the Bullpen:



Shorebirds 2B Tyler Kelly's Grounder With Eyes



1B Tyler Kolodny Hits a Sac Fly



Greensboro SS Get A Ball in the Face



C Justin Dalles Puts One in the Gap

Around The Oriole Blog-O-Sphere: Panic Button Edition

1-8.

What do I say to that?

BFD.

How can I say that?

The peripherals.

Fans are acting like this team is heading in the wrong direction because they started 6-3 last season and started 2010 1-8.

Is this team really worse than the 2009 version? Absolutely not. The reasons outlined in this post still apply. The starting staff is better, the overall talent on offense is better, there is help on the way, and soon, from the farm system.

Does anybody remember the stretch over April/May 2009 when the O's went 3-14? 3-14! Better or worse than this stretch we're watching?

Get a grip. Just because this stretch starts the season makes it no worse. Growing pains. We'll have 'em.

And quit bringing up 1988. Let Grandpa Blogger tell you something. This ain't 1988. I lived through 1988! It was my baseball Vietnam!

Through the first 9 games of this season, Baltimore has been outscored 49-27. In 1988, they were outscored 61-14! And heartbreaking losses? The loss in the Brian Matusz game the other night pales in comparison to watching Mike Boddicker throw a complete game and give up only one run (while striking out 10 and walking none by the way) only to lose 4-3 to the Royals! Eddie Murray and Billy Ripken made the errors to give up the unearned runs! Or how about watching Mike Morgan throw 9 shutout innings only to lose 1-0 to Cleveland in 11? And you're going to punk out over a 1-8 streak? Don't come to me for compassion! Man up or go get your pink Red Sox hat and join The Nation! Quit 'yer whining!

1988...come back to reality.

Anyway, around the Blog-O-Sphere...

Roar From 34 says it all in the title to this post: O's Fans Should Be Waving Rally Towels, Not White Flags
Dempsey's Army raises our standard with you Matt!

Chris at Baltimore Sports Life looks in great detail at the 1-8 streak

Dave Mc of Weaver's Tantrum ponders the arguments for and against a managerial change.

The Eutaw Street Hooligans offer a dose of calm in the face of Oriole fan panic

Camden Crazies goes deep into the numbers and finds that while things are bad, they aren't as bad as you think..

Slideshow: Delmarva Shorebirds vs. Greensboro Grasshoppers, 4/12/2009

MASN's 2nd Annual Oriole Bloggers Day

If the Delmarva Shorebirds games in Greenville and Greensboro were the slices of bread, MASN's Oriole Blogger Day in Baltimore this past Sunday was the pulled pork on my BBQ sandwich.

Metaphors aside, the second edition of this event was, once again, a chance to meet my fellow bloggers face to face, watch the O's play and get a rare crab cake (remember, I live in Atlanta) up in the MASN suite.

We met up with Todd Webster outside of the home plate plaza and he took us up to the MASN suite to hang out for a bit before the game and pretty soon we were taken up to the MASN booth to chat with Gary Thorne and Mike Flanagan. I asked Mike Flanagan specifically if he had seen any issues with fellow lefty Mike Gonzalez's delivery...well, I could recap but God bless Anthony and James over at Oriole Post who recorded the entire Q&A with Mike and Gary. The video can be seen here with my question and much more.

After that, it was back to the suite to watch the game and chat with my fellow bloggers about all things baseball. Jim Hunter stopped by to shake hands and speak with us all, as well as MASN's Steve Melewski and Oriole PR Monica Pence, who I specifically thanked for getting me some good information for the Unofficial Baltimore Oriole Spring Training Visitor's Guide.

In a nice surprise, Andy MacPhail came down to the suite for a quick Q&A and hung around for almost 10 minutes. Again, thanks to Oriole Post, you can listen to the audio here.

Last year, I marveled at Rick Dempsey's color coded score keeping system and had to ask him about it this year. Rick was nice enough to explain what his markers meant:

Orange - all hits for either team are coded with Oriole orange
Green - walks. Because once you walk you're "ready to go" on the basepaths
Blue - strikeouts. Because "when you strike out, you're blue"
Purple - hit by a pitch. Because "when you get hit by a pitch, you get a big purple mark on you"
Red - RBI

And again, Todd Webster took us down to the MASN truck so we can see where all the magic happens. I still have no idea how they keep track of all those screens on the fly.

The game? Well, the O's hung around until late and then surrendered some runs in the 8th to lose 5-2 to the Blue Jays. But what I'll remember most is chatting with Anthony from Oriole Post, talking about mid-coast Maine with Todd Webster, discussing the relative worth of Garrett Atkins with Dan from Camden Crazies or picking Matt Sadler's (from Baltimore Sports Report) brain about getting minor league press credentials.

Again, an enjoyable time and a real treat, especially for writers like me who reside in the Oriole diaspora.

Other recaps and/or blogs represented:

Anthony and James from Oriole Post (http://oriolepost.com/)
Stacy and Duck from Camden Chat (http://www.camdenchat.com/)
Chris from Baltimore Sports and Life (http://baltimoresportsandlife.blogspot.com/)
Pete from The Wayward Oriole (http://www.thewaywardoriole.com/)
Matt and Clark from Baltimore Sports Report (http://baltimoresportsreport.com/)
Dan from Camden Crazies (http://camdencrazies.com/)
Kevin from Oriole Card "O" The Day (http://oriolescards.blogspot.com/)
Michael from Bird's Watcher (http://birdswatcher.com/)




Apologies if I missed anybody...

Delmarva Shorebirds @ Greensboro Grasshoppers – 4/12/2010, Part 2

More impressions of the Shorebirds form the game in Greensboro on 4/12...

LHP Tony Butler - Acquired in trade, 2007

Butler was the 5th guy acquired from Seattle for Erik Bedard. while George Sherrill, Adam Jones, Chris Tillman and Kam Mickolio have all contributed to major league club, Butler has become the forgotten man. He had surgery on his labrum and missed most of the 2009 season. He is still just 22 but is back in low-A trying to work his way back to prospect status.

Butler had a rough first inning, struggling with his control but his defense did him no favors. All four runs he gave up were unearned but make no mistake, he did not pitch well that first inning. His fastball was up, he had trouble throwing his breaking ball for strikes and labored through 36 pitches to get out of the inning. However, he retired the last 10 batters he faced and only had to throw 33 pitches to get through the next three innings. (He was lifted after the 4th, I think the starters are on a pitch count early in the season.)

His fastball topped out at 86 but I don't buy that. the radar gun setup was a little cheesy on only one pitcher all night broke 90 mph. My guess is that their gun was reading 2 mph slow on average. Back when he was considered a top prospect in the Seattle system, his fastball was hitting 88-91 mph and 88 mph seemd to be what he topped out at in Greenboro (by my estimation). Supposedly, he throws a fastball, a change and a curve but his breaking ball looked more like a slider to me and he slipped over a more traditional looking curveball a couple of times. Of course, his "slider" was in there at 76 mph which seems to slow to be a slider...but what do I know? I'm not a scout.

Regardless of what you call it, his breaking ball was effective and he seemed to be pitching "backwards" at times, working of his breaking pitches and throwing the fastball to keep the hitters honest.

It would be hard to see Butler as much more than a relief prospect at this point but you never know. If he builds on this performance, his stuff, combined with the polish that he shows on the mound, could allow him to remain a starter through the high minors. And if he ever regains that low-90's fastball to go with the breaking stuff, he might just establish himself as a potential starter again.

C Justin Dalles -Drafted 2009, 6th Round

I was disappointed when I saw that C Michael Ohlman (2009 Draft, 11th round) would not play in either game I was going to attend this weekend. Not anymore. I got to see Justin Dalles play and now I am a fan.

I already told you about the home run he hit on Saturday in Greenville, the longest homer I've ever seen hit in the minors (maybe ever). On Monday, he went 2-3 with a double and a walk. On top of that, he picked a runner off at first, looked good behind the plate and acted as a vocal leader on the field. He has a good approach at the plate and is showing good power, even when he misses (like the long fly ball he hit early in Monday's game that was just a couple feet foul of being a homer).

Catcher was a desolate position in the Oriole system for years. No longer. Add Justin Dalles to the talent pool.

2B Tyler Kelly - 2009, 13th Round

Kelly made a couple of nice plays at second on Monday night, including running down a pop fly way out by the right field foul line. He's 21 and doesn't show a lot of power but looks like he's a good fielder, a good baserunner and works the count well. If he develops the ability to take a walk, he already looks to be a good candidate for a utility infielder down the line.

SS Garabez Rosa - 2006, International Free Agent

20-year-old Rosa, who is fairly slow of foot on the basepaths but is quick footed in the field, showed soft hands and an above average arm for low-A. Rosa went 3-4 with a couple doubles on Monday but thus far has been overmatched at the plate during his proessional career. More nights like this, flashing gap power, and he may evolve into a utility guy himself and maybe more. His youth leaves more room for improvement and he is the #27 prospect in the Orioles system so the scouts like the raw talent.

3B Levi Carolus - 2004, International Free Agent

Carolus caught my eye in the stat sheets for Aberdeen last year when he hit .320. He has shown some modest power and, outside of his lack of walks, looked like he could be an interesting guy to watch at third base for Delmarva. However, in addition to his hack-happy ways at the plate, he did not look good in the field either. His reactions seemd slow compared to his peers, often not even coming close to making the play on balls down the line.

I have my doubts that he'll be able to stick at third at higher levels, which takes away a bunch of his potential value. He needs to improve his glove or plate discipline dramatically this season if he hopes to be more than minor league filler.

OF Brian Conley - 2008, 17th Round

Conley is already 24 and thus far, has shown little at the plate except the abilty to draw walks. However, he already has 3 extra base hits in 14 ABs after having 9 extra base hits all of last season. If he keeps flashing some power in Delmarva and Frederick in 2010, (that's a big if) he might have something.

Quick Thoughts on the Slump

If you would have told me that the Orioles' starters would be 7th in the AL in ERA during the first week of the season, I would have been encouraged. If you would have told me that the Oriole starters would have turned in more quality starts than the Yankees or the Red Sox, I would have been thrilled. If you would have told me that the Oriole starters would lead the AL in strikeouts, I would have thought the Orioles would have been off to a very good start.

Hasn't worked out that way, has it? All the above facts are true and yet the O's are 1-6.

The starting rotation was supposed to be the big question mark on this team, especially early in the season. Instead, the starters have been solid. The bullpen, outside of Mike Gonzalez has also been solid.

The real issue has been the offense, a supposed source of relative strength. A .312 OBP and a .365 SLG give the team a .676 OPS so far. Only Cleveland and Seattle has been worse.

If you believe the bats will stay cold, I guess there's reason to worry. I have a hard time believing that though. This slump sucks but things are bound to get better and soon.

Delmarva Shorebirds @ Greensboro Grasshoppers – 4/12/2010

2B Tyler Kelly had 3 hits, drove in 4 and scored the tying run in the 9th as the Shorebirds stormed by the Greensboro Grasshoppers with a 6-run rally in the final frame for an 11-6 win.

In a back and forth contest, fielding miscues provided both teams with runs at critical times. SP Tony Butler gave up 4 runs in the 1st but none were earned as 3B Levi Carolus' fielding error opened the door to a 2-out Greensboro rally. Grasshopper SS Jose Torres made two errors that led to 3 unearned Shorebird runs in the first 6 innings.

But heading into the 9th, the Shorebirds still trailed 6-5. Kelly led off with a single, advanced to second on a passed ball, advanced to third on a groundout and scored on 1B Tyler Kolodny's sacrifice fly to tie the game.

At that point Greensboro RP Alejandro Pena started walking the park. He walked the next two batters and CF Steve Bumbry hit a double to left to give the Shorebirds the lead for good.

Pena and RP Arquimedes Caminero combined to walk 5 Shorebirds in the 9th and surrendered 6 earned runs.

Shorebirds SS Gabarez Rosa also went 3-4 with 2 doubles and 3 RBI. C Justin Dalles went 2-3 and scored 3 runs.

SP Tony Butler had some control issues in the 1st inning but settled down to retire the last 10 batters he faced.

Lefty reliever Jacob Smith pitched a scoreless 8th to get the win.

More about this game to follow...

Delmarva Shorebirds @ Greenville Drive - 4/10/2010, Part 2

I gave you the quick game recap, now some observations on the Delmarva players.

RHP Matt Hobgood - Drafted 2009, 1st Round (5th overall)

You can see why the Orioles like Hobgood so much. Though only 19, he was sitting at 92-93 mph all night and hitting 95 with his fastball on occasion. He has a wicked 79 mph curve that was buckling the knees of the opposition and his stuff was dominant when he was putting it over the plate. Only two batters made solid contact and he only gave up 3 hits while striking out 4.

Unfortunately, he wasn't putting it over the plate consistently. At one point in the 3rd, he walked three straight batters. Early in his career, this will be his Achilles heel. He has the stuff to dominate low-A, he just needs to throw strikes more consistently.

He had a great move to first for a righty and nearly picked off runners more than once.

He's a big kid, listed at 6'4" and 250, although I would have guessed 260 and there were unconfirmed reports that he was as heavy as 270 in Sarasota. Given his young age, this has led to speculation that his weight may be a concern going forward. But it isn't yet.

Hobgood was quick off the mound to cover first on multiple occasions and sprinted to cover home on a wild pitch where he beat the speedy Drive runner(lots of speed on this Red Sox farm team) from third. (the ball did not beat the runner, unfortunately.) When he runs he brings to mind a charging defensive end or a pulling guard. He may be big (or even fat, if you want to be blunt) but he is still very athletic and carries his weight well. Whatever the future holds, his weight doesn't look to be a problem at the moment as he demonstrates all the skills to be a complete pitcher when it comes to fielding his position.

CF Steve Bumbry - Drafted 2009, 12th Round

While Hobgood's size makes you sit up and take notice, it's Steve Bumbry's wheels that grab your attention. Both his hits that night were of the infield variety and his speed made neither play particularly close. He bunted for a hit down the 3rd base line in the 4th and beat the throw by a couple steps. In the 6th, he hit a broken bat bounder to the Drive second baseman that the fielder ultimately misplayed but it wouldn't have mattered. Bumbry would have beaten even a good throw by a full step.

His speed is of great help in center but he seems to get good jumps on the ball anyway and looks to be a natural in the field. He backed up plays well, threw to the correct base and looked to know how to play his position like the back of his hand. Given that he is Al Bumbry's son, I suppose this is not a surprise. He had a good teacher.

On the negative side, his arm looks a little weak. The 22-year-old may not hit for much power although early in the season he already has three extra base hits in 4 games (2 triples and a double). He'll be an interesting guy to watch, especially once he gets to Frederick.

1B Tyler Kolodny - Drafted 2007, 16th Round

I like Kolodny's plate approach. He doesn't chase, demonstrates a good eye and when he gets one to hit, he hits it hard. Looking back at his stats, he has always gotten on base at a good clip compared to his batting averages (his OBP is 108 points higher than his batting average for his minor league career. Has good speed for a 6'3", 215 lb corner infielder and has good instincts on the bases.

However, he is 22 and repeating low-A. He needs to continue with his fast start and force his way up to Frederick this season if he wants to get himself some attention in 2010.

LF T.J. Baxter - Drafted 2008, 24th Round

If Stephen Bumbry was the fastest player on the field on Saturday, Baxter was a close second. Baxter stole two bases, got on base all four times he was at the plate and showed some good gap power. At 24, he's not exactly a prospect but he was damn fun to watch. If you head out to Salisbury this season to check out the Shorebirds and their highly touted prospects, take note of Baxter too.

C Justin Dalles - Drafted 2009, 6th Round

The 21-year-old Dalles gets a mention just because of the homerun he hit. Leading off the 7th, Dalles tattooed a 2-1 pitch to dead center where the ball sailed easily over the 30 foot centerfield wall 410 ft away. That shot and the fact that he attended the nearby University of South Carolina had the local media clamoring to talk to him after the game.

He did hit 22 extra base hits in 55 games for USC during his last season there. Might be a sleeper.

RHP Randy Henry - Drafted 2009, 4th Round

Henry won't turn 20 until May 10th but he was the fastest pitcher we saw all night. Henry was sitting at 93-94 mph but hit 95+ several times including 97 in the 8th. Henry was a flamethrower for two inings in relief giving up 2 hits (only one of which was well-struck) and striking out two. Most of the time the batters, were flailing, popping out or grounding out weakly up the middle. Hard to see him spending all season in Delmarva so get out to Salisbury and see him while you can.

Delmarva Shorebirds @ Greenville Drive – 4/10/2010

LF T.J. Baxter went 3-3 and 1B Tyler Kolodny went 3-3 with a HR as the Shorebirds beat the Drive (Red Sox affiliate) 6-4 in Greenville last night. Baxter got on base for all four plate appearances and Kolodny fell just a double short of the cycle during starting pitcher Matt Hobgood's A-ball debut.

The Orioles' top draft pick in 2009, Hobgood looked dominant at times but struggled with his control at others, at one point walking three straight batters. Hobgood walked five but struck out four and only gave up three hits, two solid hits to the outfield (a single and a double) and a weakly hit infield single.

Baxter and Kolodny were the offensive stars of the evening. Kolodny scored three runs and stole a base while Baxter scored two and stole two bases of his own. C Justin Dalles added a solo home run in the 7th, a moonshot that cleared the 30 ft centerfield wall, 410 feet away from home plate with plenty of room to spare.

The Shorebirds' hitters had little problem with Drive starter Manuel Rivera as the lefty gave up 4 earned runs to take the loss.

Nick Haughian, Randy Henry and Josh Dowdy combined for 5 innings of relief. Haughian earned the win with 2 shutout innings and Dowdy picked up his second save of the season.


More observations to follow...

Random Thoughts About Opening Week

Sorry for the lack of content this week as real life (mostly work) has taken up more of my time than usual. Good stuff coming this weekend but I did want to throw a few things out there today...

* Weird watching Mike Gonzalez work this last series. OK...weird ain't the word. Maddening is more like it. The good news? Velocity is up. Like I said when they signed him this offseason, the dude has nasty stuff. He's got legit closer stuff. (Or the stuff that people would consider a good closer to have. It wasn't like Trevor Hoffman was mowing them down with a mid-90's fastball.

The flip side? The control. I knew he had a tendency to walk guys but it's been ridiculous in the Tampa series. I would like to believe that he will work out the kinks.One odd thing was how many sliders he threw last night, including nothing but slider to Ben Zobrist to induce the flyball and mercifully end the game. Bumpy ride with Gonzalez? Let's hope this isn't the norm.

* If you don't believe in Matt Wieters yet, time to get on your knees and have your "come to Wieters moment"

* If we get pitching performances like that out of Millwood and Guthrie all year, this team is going to win a lot of games. They weren't spectacular but they were solid.

* I believe in Matt Albers, you know this. But how great does he look to start the season? 3.1 innings with 3 Ks and only 1 walk. If Albers keeps throwing strikes, he has setup man stuff...dare I say it....closer stuff? I know, Albers continuing to throw strikes is a big if...

OK, some fearless predictions:

* Garrett Atkins won't be a regular with this team by June 15th. Somebody has to come to their senses. Nice clutch hitting in Tampa but that can't last.

* Nick Markakis...breakout! Enos Slaughter for the new millenium. I recycling this from last season.

* Brian Matusz....breakout! Don't be surprised if Matusz is having Tim Lincecum-type success (without the gawdy strikeout totals...but damn good ones) by the second half of the season.

* Matt Wieters...breakout! I'm going with the Keith Law prediction of "well over .300 with 20-25 homers" for his sophomore season.

* Adam Jones....no breakout! It would be hard to call this a breakout since he was pretty good last year but I expect that this is the year Jones starts to show people that Adrian Gonzalez is not necessary because the Orioles already have a bat as good in centerfield. Look for an average around .300 with something approaching 25 homers.

* 80 wins. That's my guess. And with a little luck...you never know.

* Ben McDonald becomes a surprise hit on MASN.

* Kevin Millwood 2010 = Rick Sutcliffe 1992

* Felix Pie forces something this summer...a trade, a position change....something.

Home opener today! Let's go O's!

Excercises in Oriole Lineup Optimization

Just so we're clear, this post is NOT in response to last night's heartbreaking loss to Tampa. The creeping fatalism, once so identified with Red Sox fans, that has taken hold in Birdland will not breach the ramparts of Dempsey's Army. I so swear.

No, I started looking at this before the game began, when I looked at the lineup and saw that Dave Trembley had designated Miguel Tejada as our Opening Day cleanup hitter. That's right, the guy who hasn't ISO'd north of .200 since 2005, the man who has only slugged more than .450 once in the last three years (.455 last season).

So, I wanted to see how much that was hurting the team. So I went to the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis site to check it out.

First, I entered last night's lineup with 2010 CHONE projections for the lineup:

Brian Roberts
Adam Jones
Nick Markakis
Miguel Tejada
Luke Scott
Matt Wieters
Felix Pie
Garrett Atkins
Cesar Izturis

This lineup is projected to produce an average of 5.128 runs per game or 831 runs over the course of the season.

Now, I entered the lineup I would like to see. (We'll forget about the personnel for a minute and just rearrange them...)

If you check in regularly,you know I have endorsed Luke Scott for cleanup hitter to start the season. I have framed this argument using slugging percentage or ISO but I think I need to break it down to more basic levels. Here's what I like in my cleanup hitters...With runners on base, I want him to hit the ball a long, long way, as far away from home plate as possible so that the base runners have the most time possible to round the bases and reach said home plate. The further he hits it, the more likely the base runners are to score. He might even hit it over the fence. And I want him to do it more often than anyone else on the team. Silly me.

Right now, that man is Luke Scott.

Brian Roberts
Nick Markakis
Adam Jones
Luke Scott
Matt Wieters
Miguel Tejada
Felix Pie
Garrett Atkins
Cesar Izturis

How does this version shake out? This lineup would score 5.148 runs per game or 834 runs per season. That's only three extra runs per season. Better but probably not that significant.

What's the optimum lineup?

Roberts
Markakis
Scott
Wieters
Jones
Pie
Atkins
Tejada
Izturis

This lineup would score 5.157 runs per game or 835 over the course of a season, only one more run than my lineup.

However, what if we moved Luke Scott to first base and plugged in Nolan Reimold at first base?

The best lineup would look like this:

Roberts
Markakis
Wieters
Reimold
Jones
Tejada
Pie
Scott
Izturis

That lineup would produce 5.274 runs per game or 854 runs over the course of the season.

So as you can see, lineups are fairly overrated, at least in comparison to upgrading the talent which moves the needle much more.

As long as you keep Izturis in the 9th spot and Roberts in the 1st, you can jumble around the rest of the lineup with only two or three runs difference over the course of the season. Could that mean a win or two? Sure. But I think this difference could be made up for with luck on either side. But replacing Atkins with Reimold instantly adds 19 runs over the course of the season. Now that's a huge difference.

So maybe we Oriole fans should worry less about the order of the lineup and more about the personnel that comprises it.

5 Reasons Why Watching the Orioles in 2010 Will Be Better Than 2009

Disaster. Disaster seemed to strike at every turn last season and the team was so thin that every injury, failure or error was exacerbated by the fact that holes could not be plugged when guys got hurt or washed out. I am thinking that this is the main reason that 2010 will be better than 2009; the depth. It's not an incredibly deep organization yet but it's getting better.

There's the general reason, here are the specifics.


1. The Rotation

Last season's Opening Day rotation consisted of Jeremy Guthrie, Mark Hendrickson, Alfredo Simon, Adam Eaton, Koji Uehara and then Rich Hill as a backup. Outside of Guthrie, those starters combined for only 46 starts and an ERA north of 6.00. This forced Jason Berken, David Hernandez and Brian Matusz into the rotation before they were ready with mixed results.

This season, the rotation to start the season is Guthrie, Kevin Millwood, Brad Bergesen, Brian Matusz and David Hernandez. Guthrie and Millwood aren't All-Stars but are good bets to be league average pitchers and start 28+ games. Bergesen and Hernandez are battle-tested sophomores and, as a combo, are also good bets to produce league average ERA. Brian Matusz is a candidate for AL Rookie of the Year.

There are clearly flaws with the rotation but it doesn't look like it will be an unmitigated disaster like 2009.

2. The Outfield

Going into 2009, the Oriole outfield was a big strength and loaded with potential Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Felix Pie and Luke Scott. In 2010, it's even better.

Nick Markakis has a down year by his standards but looks to rebound nicely as the Orioles want him to hit second in the lineup this year, a position that plays to his strengths at the plate. Adam Jones broke out offensively in 2009 and is, by definition, a Gold Glove caliber centerfielder. Pie, after a shaky start in the field and at the plate, looks to be coming into his own as he starts the season in left. Nolan Reimold was an afterthought in 2009 but barring a late season injury probably would have been ROY. And there's still Scott who can still play left and has led the team in slugging for the past two seasons.

It is the deepest area on the team and it's depth that even the Yankees can't boast.

3. Matt Wieters

Bold prediction: Matt Wieters is ready to take the title of "Best Catcher in the AL Not Named Mauer".

But I am not alone. ESPN's Keith Law has picked him as a breakout candidate and expects him to hit well over .300 with 20-25 homeruns. Can't wait to see what he does this year.

4. The Bench

I wasn't crazy about the signing of Garrett Atkins but if it pushes Ty Wigginton to the bench with Julio Lugo, Craig Tatum and whoever the 5th outfielder is that day, that's a pretty good bench.

OK, Tatum is more of a catch and throw guy. But Lugo, Wigginton and Reimold/Pie/Scott? That's not bad at all. Decent bats, some decent speed...no more having to watch the like of Robert Andino or Ryan Freel taking weak hacks.

5. Norfolk

Norfolk helped provide the cavalry last season and looks poised to do so again. Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, Brandon Erbe, Kam Mickolio, Jim Miller Denis Sarfate, Josh Perrault, Brandon Snyder, Josh Bell and Justin Turner are all (possibly) ready to step in in case of injury or ineffectiveness on the big club. And even Troy Patton, Scott Moore, Ryne Hughes or Lou Montanez may be able to help in 2010.

The bottom line is, although the minors graduated a lot of talent to Baltimore last season, there is still more (of varying degrees) to come. And that's a good thing.

Final WAR Spreadsheet for Orioles 2010

 And here they are. They reflect the recent roster changes and the possible injury situations:

Again, all of these projections are from CHONE (typically the most pessimistic of the projection systems) except for Nick Markakis and Matt Wieters who were bumped up a bit.

That's 80.6 wins. With some health and some good luck, this could be a winning club. I stand by my earlier assessment.

Orioles Acquire Julio Lugo for PTBNL, Michael Aubrey DFA'd

About 9:30 this morning, MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez reported that Julio Lugo had been traded by the Cardinals to an American League team. Shortly thereafter, he said it looked like the Orioles. And now, it's official.

The Orioles have acquired SS Julio Lugo from the Cardinals for a player to be named later. With Brian Roberts having battled back problems this spring, the thought of Robert Andino having to play second base on a regular basis must not have set very well with The Warehouse.

The deal, on the surface, is outstanding for Baltimore. (Well, as outstanding an acquisition for a utility infielder can be.) While Lugo will make $9 million this season, Boston is paying that salary. The Orioles will only have to pay him the league minimum for his services. They are giving up no player of consequence. (Really, who was the last PTBNL you can think of that amounted to anything?) Most of all, he will supplant Robert Andino. Andino's bat is so bad, he makes Cesar Izturis look like Brian Roberts. Lugo is no great shakes at the plate anymore but he did OPS .756 in limited time last year. And even if he only OPS's in the mid-.650's, it world's better than Andino.

Where Lugo has dropped off is in the field. His UZR was a pitiful -16.9 in 2009. But while he glove is not what it once was, nobody seems to think that he will be that bad in 2010. CHONE puts him at a 0.6 WAR which means his bat and glove should still be slightly above average.

Michael Aubrey was DFA'd to make room for Lugo on the 40-man roster. Aubrey is unlikely to be claimed by another team and may accept an assignment to Norfolk.

Aubrey may also be added back to the 40-man after the O's rid themselves of Andino. Andino is out of options but Baltimore apparently thinks he has some trade value, maybe for another PTBNL from another team. Either by trade or release, Andino's Oriole career is over.

This move improves the bench and improves the club. Not that Lugo could replace Roberts' production if he goes down for an extended period of time but he makes a better stopgap than the internal options.

And now, I have to redo my WAR spreadsheet AGAIN...

5 Things To Watch - Spring Training 2010 (Final)

1. Chris Tillman - I didn't see this happening but Tillman did not win the 5th spot in the rotation, losing the job to David Hernandez. Tillman will start the season in Norfolk which isn't the end of the world but hopefully he's down there to work on the cut fastball. In terms of dominating AAA, the guys already done it.

2. The Bench - The only shock to me is that Ty Wigginton is still on the club. I felt sure that he would be traded before Opening Day and the team would carry Michael Aubrey or Scott Moore. Perhaps the Brian Roberts injury kept Wigginton on the team.

Justin Turner played well. Robert Andino will start the season on the club but Turner may play his way to Baltimore and push Andino out of the organization. Andino has hit better this spring but still doesn't walk and looked shaky in the field. Turner has a better bat and he looked good at short for Norfolk, at least the two times I saw him.

3. Health - Brad Bergesen and Will Ohman look to be fully healthy . Nolan Reimold is recovering (and admittedly, he has looked like he's moving well, better than I expected at this point) but is not 100%. Felix Pie will be the starting left fielder on Opening Day but Reimold will avoid the DL. Koji Uehara has hurt his leg yet again and may not be ready for Opening Day.

4. The Battle for the Backup Backstop - Chad Moeller did nothing to lose the job but lost it anyway. In a mild upset, Craig Tatum wins the backup catcher job. Not sure how I feel about that but for the first time in the last four years, the team went with the younger upstart rather than the steadier veteran.

5. Shaking Out The Pen - Mike Gonzalez, Jim Johnson Mark Hendrickson will be joined by Cla Meredith who seems to have recaptured his pre-2009 form. Will Ohman pitched himself into the left specialist role and showed that his arm is healthy. Jason Berken got lucky that David Hernandez beat out Chris Tillman and opened a spot for a second longman in the Oriole pen. Berken has not been good this spring but he'll go north. Matt Albers had a decent spring but got lucky that Uehara will start the season on the DL.