Peter Bernstein has done a study about how payroll correlates to winning for ESPN. The study looks at the most cost effective teams and the least cost effective teams since 1998. Not surprisingly, the Oakland A's come in first. Neither is it surprising that the Orioles were in last.
The Orioles averaged $100 million in payroll from 1998-2008, more than league average. They would be expected to average 83 wins per season at that level. Instead, they have averaged 72.
So the drought of winning seasons has little to do with an unwillingness to spend money (at the level they spend the Oriole should have fluked into a winning season at one point during the past 11 seasons) but the unwise spending of that money. Over the course of this losing streak, they have only been outspent by 9 teams.
Take comfort that the The Warehouse is trying something new...
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Couple of transactions:
O's sign RP Chris Ray to one-year deal.
Hopefully, Ray is coming back fully healthy. If so, expect him to reclaim the job as closer by the end of the year and George Sherrill goes back to a 7th inning or specialty role. Stronger bullpen, which will be needed given the question marks around the rotation.
O's sign INF Chris Gomez to a minor league deal.
I'm fine with a minor league deal for Gomez but many fans seem to believe he's going to make the team. That would be a brutal situation.
Assuming the O's carry 13 pitchers, that leaves this list for the position players:
RF Markakis
CF Jones
LF Scott
OF Montanez/Reimold
1B Salazar
2B Roberts
3B Mora
SS Izturis
Util Freel
C Zaun
C Moeller/Wieters
That's eleven, leaving one spot open. The Orioles are still looking for DH/1B help so if they bring somebody in that leaves Oscar Salazar, Chris Gomez, Donnie Murphy and Scott Moore to battle for the last spot on the bench.
We already have a utility guy (Freel) and there is no reason to have a defensive specialist behind a great defender like Izturis. I'd rather see the spot go to one of the younger guys with some more pop (Salazar or Moore) coming off the bench. Their potential production will help fill bigger holes for the Orioles than Gomez will. Let's face it, the Orioles will need more help on the corners than up the middle this season. My two cents.
Gregg Zaun rumored to be close to agreement with Baltimore.
I wholeheartedly welcome Rick Dempsey's nephew back to the team. I thought Baltimore should have brought him back earlier in his career (before he signed with the Blue Jays) but better late than never. He'll be a great placeholder for Matt Wieters and can hit well enough to DH every now and then. Good news if it's true.
Oh, and he'll bring his Z-Game. Anyone who can combine Zorro and Rush is OK in my book.
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Orioles Spring Training Relocation Caravan Update: Apparently, Fort Myers is now in the mix too...
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Jay Gibbons signed a minor league deal with the Florida Marlins. Am I crazy to think he could actually help that team? Good luck, Jay.
Hey,
ReplyDeleteI know this is mostly unrelated to this post, but Beyond The Box Score (which if you don't read you should check out given your links) is doing projections for each team for the 2009 season and I'm keeping track of the O's projections.
I don't know how often you frequent Orioles Hangout, but given your good work on this blog I'd appreciate you checking out what I have thus far (on my blog) and giving some input.
Thanks,
Daniel (Frost King)