Team projections at this time of the year are a fool's game. But I started to try anyway.
Using Sky Kalkman's WAR Spreadsheet, I plugged in the holes based on the current roster and a few assumptions here and there (like the return of Mark Hendrickson or someone like him). Then I used CHONE and Bill James projections (mostly Bill James since they are already in wOBA at FanGraphs.com) and let the spreadsheet run the numbers.
Projection: 83 wins
What? I looked over my numbers again. I only had Nick Markakis, Adam Jones and Brad Bergesen outperforming projections by any significant amount and even that was not by much. All other players either got their Bill James projection or were lowered to some degree. And I still get 83 wins. Even with Garrett Atkins and Ty Wigginton manning the corners all year.
Keep in mind that going into Spring Training 2009, my spreadsheet had 77 wins and Baltimore almost lost 100. But the pitching just plain exploded. Barring a significant rash of injuries, this staff won't be as bad as '09, right?
The link to my spreadsheet is here. Any feedback is appreciated. But I got a little unexpected optimism for Christmas.
edit: I gave Nolan Reimold 745 ABs vs. 695 between LF and DH. I adjusted that but it still falls in the 83 win range.
Why is Brandon Waring a label for this entry?
ReplyDeleteProbably tried to tag it "WAR" but it auto-completed as "Waring".
ReplyDeleteOr...Brandon Waring is the X-factor! Rising from Bowie to the bigs by June 1st to hit 28 homers and lead Baltimore to the playoffs...
I'll stop drinking now.