Blogger on Blogger with Matt Vensel

Blogger on Blogger: Where I answer some questions for BaltimoreSun.com's Matt Vensel or the worst YouPorn category ever? You decide!

This Week in Chat - 6/27/11

Hello there.

My TWiC entry for the week is up over here at Camden Depot. Enjoy!

This Week in Chat - 6/21/2011

Hello, again.

If you liked the "This Week in Chat" recaps I had been doing this season, I have started posting them with Camden Depot over at the ESPN Sweetspot blog. Here's the link to this week's rundown.

More on this space soon, I promise...

Guest Blogging for MASN.com Again

Hi! You miss me?

Well, you didn't have to. I was guest posting over at the Oriole Buzz blog on MASNSports.com this week and never had a chance to let anyone know. But there's a week's worth of posts over here.

Back to regularly scheduled programming next week.

2011 MLB Amateur Draft: For the Orioles, It's Got to be Cole

For most of last season, it appeared that the Orioles would have the first pick in the 2011 Amateur Draft and that Anthony Rendonwould be their third basemen of the future. As the end of the season neared, the Orioles seemed assured of the second pick, at least, and that if they didn't get Rendon, they would certainly get UCLA stud pitcher Gerrit Cole. But they kept playing well and ended up at #4. Nobody knew what to expect with the #4 pick.

But if you had told those draft saavy Oriole fans that Baltimore would still have a chance to get Gerrit Cole with the #4 pick, they would have been pretty happy about that.

And now, that just might happen.

I would love to have Rendon in the organization, assuming his medicals are good but he's not going to slip that far down. However, there is word that Cole might.

With the ascendancy of other pitchers in 2011, UVA lefty Danny Hultzen, UCLA hurler Trevor Bauer and Oklahoma high school wunderkind Dylan Bundy are all putting themselves in the conversation among the first three picks. So there are scenarios in which Cole could fall into the Orioles' lap.

And if that happens, they have to take him. He was the best pitcher coming into the season and I really don't think anyone else has unseated him. There are many devotees of Bundy among the Oriole fan base (whose brother Bobby is already pitching in the org for Frederick) but I'm sorry, I don't think he's better yet. Bundy is reportedly very polished for a high school pitcher but he's not more polished than Cole.

Don't get me wrong. Unlike last year when I would have been very disappointed if Baltimore had not signed Manny Machado, I don't think the O's can go wrong with any the talent available at #4. Bundy would be awesome. Hultzen would be an amazing lefty to pair with Brian Matusz and Zach Britton and would have a fast track to the majors. And there are other college arms who are intriguing.

But in the unlikely event that Cole slips....Baltimore has to pounce.


(I'll be on vacation next week, hence the early post on the draft. See you in 10 days or so when I do another round of guest posting for MASNsports.com.)

Vlad is Teflon. There's Nothing to be Done

In Vlad's dreams, Father Time takes the shape of a large parrot...

I was going to say that this post was not me picking on PressBoxOnline.com Oriole beat reporter Matt Palmer. But that would be disingenuous. I am totally going to pick on him to make a larger point.

Matt decided to give grades to various facets of the team for their performance up to the end of May. Here's a sample.

Infield
Grade: C-


...Hardy missed most of April with an intercostal strain, but in 25 games, has not made an error. Offensively, he's been decent, batting .234 with 12 runs driven in and nine runs scored.


Reynolds is no better now than he was when he arrived with the Orioles. He is batting .198 and has struck out 52 times, good for nearly one per game. At this pace, he'll miss .200 for the first time since 2007. Still, he has just seven home runs. If that's his bread and butter and that's not happening, something's wrong. His on-base, slugging and on-base plus slugging percentages are at career lows. He has nine errors and is halfway to the number he had last year...

Now, if we're just going to cite batting averages, hitting .234 is not "decent". Cesar Izturis hit .230 last season. But Hardy is up to .250 and will likely hit better so that's just nitpicking on my part.

And he is not at all wrong about Mark Reynolds. All those thing are absolutely true. Remember them.

Designated Hitter
Grade: B+


For the most part, the Orioles are getting what they expected out of Vladimir Guerrero. He has 23 RBIs with five home runs, so his power abilities are starting to diminish just a bit. Still, he changes the lineup's dynamics just by his mere presence. He leads the team in batting average (.295) and hits (61). The question remains, how long will he be in Baltimore? He's going to be attractive to American League teams with playoff hopes next month.

Let's take this line by line. Getting what they expected out of Guerrero? He is on a pace for 15 home runs so far. 15. Vlad has never hit fewer than 25 over a full season. That is NOT what the Orioles expected out of Vlad. His "power abilities are starting to diminish"? They've diminished! They're gone!

And there it is. Let's let this phrase lie for a second:

"Still, he changes the lineup's dynamics just by his mere presence."

Oh, it's OK then. Because Vlad is magic.

I am beginning to believe that Vlad is magic. He is able to make his poor performance look attractive to a whole lot of fans and media.

And how has this change in dynamic helped the club? This is one of the worst scoring teams in the American League. Only Minnesota, Seattle and Oakland are worse. (And we see how our offense stacks up against Oakland and Seattle in their home parks.) Vlad Guerrero is not a talisman. He's a washed-up hitter. Period.

And he is NOT going to look attractive to AL teams with playoff hopes. He stinks. Let's apply this phrase written about Reynolds to Guerrero.

Still, he has just (five) home runs. If that's his bread and butter and that's not happening, something's wrong. His on-base, slugging and on-base plus slugging percentages are at career lows.

All of the above statements are as true about Vlad as they are about Reynolds. Hell, Reynolds isn't even hitting that much worse than Vlad at this point. (.307 wOBA for Reynolds, .315 wOBA for Guerrero.)

And Guerrero gets a B+. It's just unbelievable.

Matt's not alone is his assessment. Many people think Vlad is having a fine season and is just peachy. It's the great Orange and Black swindle of 2011.

The Obligatory Nolan Reimold Post

Reimold in Norfolk...for the last time...

I haven't written about Nolan Reimold since his recall from Norfolk nearly two weeks ago which may seem odd since I kept the "Reimold in Exile" vigil on Twitter for 53 straight days.

Mostly, it's been because I had mixed feelings about the call up. Reimold was only called up due to injuries to other players and, after some struggles in AAA, Reimold was finally hitting his stride in Norfolk and I was afraid that he would ride the bench in Baltimore and not get enough at bats to help his development or help the team.

Those fears have turned out to be unfounded. Reimold has gotten plenty of ABs which is all I was wanting for the guy. Failure or success, I wanted Reimold to get his playing time in the majors. Not because he "deserved" it (which is such a nebulous concept anyway) but because it was best for the team to find out what he was and what he could be.

The fact that he has started so well is great. But mostly it's great that he is helping the team and it will help him get more playing time going forward. There is no vindication for me. Not yet.

(Of course, I think that even with the limited sample we have here, it is apparent that Reimold absolutely has the potential to be a good major leaguer. It was incredibly frustrating to see him dismissed by those who gave him absolutely no credit for 2009 but chose instead chose to judge him from 6 weeks of at bats in 2010. So I lied. There's a little vindication here.)

I mean, I saw how he played in 2009. I know he was not fully healthy last year. I know that a young hitter with good patience and good power has a fair shot at being successful in the major leagues. His .357/.455/.714 line through his first 10 games is not at all surprising to me. He's a good hitter. He won't hit like that all the time obviously but he's going to have stretches where he does.

I was just hoping he would get a good 400 plate appearances this season. I'm hoping the hit start will get him those chances and we can see how much (or little) he could help the team in 2012. When Vladimir Guerrero and Derrek Lee are long gone.

Baby Birds Roundup - 5/24/11

Delmarva Shorebirds

OF Kipp Schutz is hitting .425/.455/.600 over his last 10 games. His OPS for the season is 1.016. He's 23 and he's not being challenged....get him up to Frederick.

IF Ty Kelly has found his power stroke with .381/.435/.500 with a couple doubles and a homer over his last 10 games.

I won't bore you with yet another Jonathan Schoop recap but he's still hitting well.

Righty reliever Clayton Schrader hasn't given up an earned run over his last 7 appearances spanning 18 innings. For the season, 22 IP, 38 Ks, 13 BBs and a lone homer.

Over his last 10 games, 1B Mike Flacco has hit .474/.523/.763 and was named Sally League player of the week.


Frederick Keys

Speaking of honors, SP Bobby Bundy was named Carolina League pitcher of the week. Over his past two starts, he has thrown 14 innings while striking out 11 while walking just 2 and allowing just one earned run.

3B Buck Britton (and brother of Zach) was OPSing .938 in Frederick and finally got a promotion to Bowie this week. He walked more than he struck out (8 BBs to 7 Ks) and he just turned 25. It was time.


Bowie Baysox

After a slow start, CF Xavier Avery is hitting .308/.400/.410 over his last 10 games with 4 doubles. Still just 21, it would be great if Avery build on this nice run.

Lefty reliever Cole McCurry has given up just one earned run this season. One. In 25.1 IP in AA this season, he has 32 strikeouts and just 7 walks.


Norfolk Tides

Most of the talent worth talking about is in Baltimore right now.

LHP Troy Patton probably should be. With all the poor pitching going on in the Baltimore pen, Patton has a 2.60 ERA over 17.1 innings in AAA (15 Ks, 5 BBs, 0 HR).

And after a rough start to the season, LHP Mark Hendrickson has a 1.91 ERA over his last 28.1 innings. (15 Ks, 4 BBs, 2 HR) Surely Hendrickson and Patton offer something better than Mike Gonzalez right now.

Righty reliever Pat Egan has found his control over the last 6 appearances and as a result, he has allowed no runs over his last 12.2 innings.

This Week in Chat - 5/22/11

Where we distill all the week's baseball chats down to their Oriole essence...

Jonah Keri, FanGraphs.com

12:23 Comment From John
Your discussion with Longoria reminded me of an article I read a few years back about Brian Roberts wearing contacts with a red tint to them so he could pick up the ball better? Are these still used? I haven't read anything about them since.

12:24 Jonah Keri:
See I'm fascinated by stuff like that. I'd be trying every little trick if I played, or made decisions for a major league team, to gain an edge.

I might try to look into this, good call.

1:03 Comment From Zach Britton
Why is there so much ROY hype for Jeremy Helickson and not so much for me?

1:03 Jonah Keri:
What hype is this? I like Hellickson, but it's not like he's leading SportsCenter on a nightly basis.

Jim Callis, Baseball America

Jeff (North Carolina):
Who do the o's take with the 4th pick? Dylan Bundy in the mix, despite his huge demands?

Jim Callis:
I've been hearing the Orioles would prefer a college pitcher. I don't think the demands matter much, because they're so high (six years, $30 million) that clubs don't believe they're close to realistic. They'd love a shot at Danny Hultzen.


David Schoenfield, ESPN

John (MI)
Thoughts on Adam Jones so far? .280 average, 20HR/20SB this season?

David Schoenfield (1:31 PM)
Seems like I get an Adam Jones question every week. He's been hitting lately and he's up to .283 with a .777 OPS, which is actually above league average these days. He's drawn a walk in three straight games, which is probably a career high. Unless he can lay off the offspeed stuff away, this is the best I think we'll see from him ... which isn't terrible, just not what everybody projected a few years ago.

Derr (Mental Ward)
Do you think if Adam Jones got moved up in the lineup he could potentially be a highly productive player. Problem is he has Reynolds hitting behind him so he never sees any good pitches

David Schoenfield (2:04 PM)
Lineup protection is generally overrated. Jones doesn't see any "good" pitches because pitchers know he'll swing at the bad ones.

Matt Eddy, Baseball America

Shoshana (Baltimore):
It's depressing enough being an Orioles fan. Any hope for the future from the farm system besides Machado? Throw us a bone and at least answer a question on the Orioles :)

Matthew Eddy:
Baltimore has the fourth pick in the draft, and that's only three weeks away. Don't forget that the O's have a lot of young major leaguers who could still improve — Matusz, of course, but also Arrieta and Reimold and Tillman.


Keith Law, ESPN

Jack (D.C.)
I like your idea of the Orioles taking Bundy, but I keep hearing they want a college arm. Where do all the rumors come from, are they made up? Also, any reason you believe they'd pass on Cole?

Klaw (2:29 PM)
Most teams view Bundy as the equivalent of a college arm because he's so polished and is physically well-developed. He's a big leaguer in 2 to 2.5 years.

Ryan (Hanover, PA)
Why does Starling keep falling in all of your mocks? I would love to see the Orioles take him at #4

Klaw (2:38 PM)
It's just cost. He's not "falling" in the sense of talent or performance, but fear that he won't sign or - more likely - fear that he'll want more money than teams are willing to spend. They'd rather spend that $10 million on one year of Rafael Soriano, I guess.

Guest Post on MASNSports.com: Orioles Bullpen has been a Money Pit

Another guest post on MASNSports.com, this one about the futility of fixing a bullpen with expensive free agents. Enjoy.

Fearless Predictions Revisited

Where I take another look at what I predicted back in March...

If Brian Roberts plays in 130 games, I'm going with 80 wins. If he ends up on the DL, 76 wins.

This one remains to be seen but Roberts has stayed healthy thus far and the team is only 2 games under .500.

Zach Britton wins the AL Rookie of the Year. Yeah, Jeremy Hellickson is the odds on favorite but I think Britton comes up on the outside and catches him.

This one looks way better than it did in March. He is probably ahead of Hellickson but Seattle's Michael Pineda probably edges out Britton at this point with his eye-popping strikeout total.

Adam Jones breaks out this season. A mild breakout, something like a .295/.340/.450. 20 home runs. But a breakout nonetheless.

As discussed yesterday, Jones is hitting .283/.335/.441 and is on a pace for 20 home runs. He's not there yet but he's pretty close.

I can't predict playing time but Nolan Reimold will finish the season with a higher OPS than Vladimir Guerrero. So will Luke Scott.

Not yet...not yet. But Luke Scott is ahead of Vlad...for now.

Jeremy Guthrie will, once again, have an ERA lower than his FIP. Probably significantly so.

Guthrie's FIP is 4.64 and his ERA is 3.98. On target.

Nick Markakis will hit 40 doubles. Again. Also will have at least a .360 OBP.

Only 4 doubles and a .311 OBP so far. A loooonnngg way to go.

Matt Wieters hits 15 home runs. Anything else he does is anybody's guess.

He's on a pace for 16 homers and has become one of the better defensive catchers in the league.

Luke Scott will OPS north of .850.

He's OPSing .766 and has a hurt shoulder. This one is not looking good.

Josh Rupe doesn't see May 15th in Baltimore. He sees it from Norfolk.

Rupe was sent to Norfolk on May 10th.

Zach Britton is in Baltimore before May 15th.

He was in Baltimore before April 15th.

JJ Hardy will be a fan favorite by June 1st.

I think this is a fait accompli.

Matt Albers will outperform most of the Oriole pen while pitching for Boston.

Albers has a 1.65 ERA over 11 games and good peripherals. Nobody in the Oriole 'pen looks better

Mark Hendrickson ends up playing a large role in the Oriole season. Take that as you will.

Hendrickson has not been good in Norfolk but as bad as the rest of the bullpen has been, he'll get a shot soon and he'll probably stick.

Mark Reynolds hits 30 homers and has 200 Ks.

Reynolds is on pace to strikeout only 170 times but only 20 homers. Long way to go to reach those numbers.

Guest Post on MASNSports.com: Ranking the Pitchers in the Orioles Hall of Fame

The latest guest post on MASNSports.com can be found here. Enjoy.

Is Adam Jones Breaking Out?

edit: I had this post ready to go on Friday morning before The Great Blogger Outage of '11 happened. I lost most of the post but pieced it back together. I updated with current stats but I may have missed something as I cobbled it back together. But here it is anyway...

Oriole center fielder Adam Jones is hitting .284/.333/.447 (wOBA .346)this season. Through May 11th of last season, he was hitting .230/.257/.353. His OPS+ of 118 (117 wRC+) would be the highest of his career if he can maintain it. The question is, is Adam Jones finally having a breakout season?

Jones was my pick for Oriole breakout player in 2011. I didn't predict big things. A .295/.340/.450 line with 20 home runs. Mild breakout. And right now, those numbers look very reachable for him.

But Jones has had his hot streaks before. Is this just another tease? I wanted to take a closer look.

Some peripheral data from the last three seasons:

BB%    K%   BB/K   HR/FB%   ISO   BABIP
2009     6.9  19.7   .39     17.8   .180   .308
2010     3.7  20.5   .19     11.4   .158   .328
2011     6.4  17.7   .40     12.5   .163   .307

The walk rate is up from his career numbers, his strikeout rate is at a career low and his homer rates, ISO and BABIP are certainly sustainable numbers. This hot streak does not look lucky at all. This is all pretty encouraging but I went and grabbed some plate discipline data from FanGraphs.com.

Plate discipline data from the last three seasons:

Season     O-Swing%    Z-Swing%    Swing%    O-Contact%    Z-Contact%    Contact%    SwStr%
2009        35.2 %      73.3 %     53.6 %      57.3 %        83.3 %       74.5 %     13.3 %
2010        40.6 %      71.0 %     54.6 %      62.1 %        84.0 %       75.2 %     13.2 %
2011        45.4 %      71.2 %     58.4 %      66.1 %        84.7 %       77.6 %     12.3 %

This is the troubling part about Jones. He is swinging at balls outside the strikezone more than ever. He's becoming even more of a free-swinger than he ever was. Now, he's making much better contact on those balls (a trend that has continued over the past three seasons) and is striking out less than ever.

There are two possibilities here. Either he has been getting extremely lucky with the production he's been getting by hitting those balls outside the strikezone or he has developed a freakish Vladimir Guerrero-like ability to hit anything near the plate well enough to keep on swinging.

So consider me a skeptic...if Jones keeps this up for most of the season, I guess we could consider this a breakout. But I'm betting on some regression in the near future.

This Week in Chat - 5/15/2011

Where we distill all the weekly baseball chatsdown to their Oriole essence...

Dave Cameron, FanGraphs.com

12:20 Comment From Guest
Taillon or Machado if Machado moves to 3b?

12:20 Dave Cameron:
Take the hitter. Almost always take the hitter.


Jonah Keri, FanGraphs.com

12:03 Comment From Cheese
Is Luke Scott going under the knife? Should he be replaced by (gulp) Milton Bradley?

12:04 Jonah Keri:
Scott's still playing as of now, despite a torn labrum. He might still be able to hit with the condition, we'll see.

Don't see what the O's would want with Bradley. They're not winning anything this year anyway, and Bradley obviously comes with more baggage than your usual veteran flyer.


Ben Badler, Baseball America

Chris (Chicago): \
Please rank the following in terms of their long-term major league impact: Zack Britton, Mike Montgomery, Mike Minor, Joe Odozirri.

Ben Badler:
Montgomery, Britton, Odorizzi, Minor

Jon Bass (Ann Arbor, MI):
All right, this technically isn't a Hot sheet question since Zach Britton is in Baltimore, but does he return to the minors when everyone else is healthy? He is their best pitcher right now.

Ben Badler:
Britton has to stay. Send Bergesen or Tillman back to Triple-A.

Rick (Chicago):
What kind of potential does Brett Jackson have and how would he compare to someone like Adam Jones? Thanks.

Ben Badler:
They're both good athletes who run well but aren't burners, have power but are prone to swing and miss, but Jackson's approach at the plate is well ahead of anything Jones has ever shown.


Matt Klaassen, FanGraphs.com

1:13 Comment From AK
Adam Jones, simply on a to-be-expected hot streak, or turning into the player Os fans have been waiting for?

1:14 Matt Klaassen:
If I had to bet, I'd say "hot streak," but he' still young enough that this could be "it," despite my skepticism about small sample "breakouts." I will say that Jones has been more disappointing than Wieters overall, given that Wieters plays a harder position and plays it well, and Jones not only hasn't hit all that well, but hasn't come close to matching his defensive reputation.


Steve Slowinski/Jeff Zimmerman, FanGraphs.com

1:59 Comment From Paul
What are your thoughts on Mark Reynold's start to the seaon?

2:00 Jeff Zimmerman:
I try not to

2:01 Steve Slowinski:
Well, to put it bluntly, he's been really bad. His batting average is even lower than last year's (thanks to an even lower BABIP) and his defense is as atrocious as you'd expect. The power hasn't appeared much yet, which is the worst part...thankfully that doesn't stabilize for a while still, though, so he could break out anytime.

2:01 Jeff Zimmerman:
His K's are down. Sadly, I feel the Orioles are stuck with him.

2:02 Steve Slowinski:
But he's not a bad option for them right now - I think it's too early to give up hope entirely. If that power appears at some point, he'll still be a decent player.

2:04 Comment From xandersdad
Will Luke Scott make it through the season with his shoulder?

2:05 Steve Slowinski:
Required joke: I refuse to believe it'll be an issue until I see the long-form doctor's note. (It's okay, I know I'm not funny)

2:05 Jeff Zimmerman:
No and he shouldn't be trying to play through it right not. Best case - mediocre season, Worst case - re-injures and can never play again.

2:57 Comment From Mark Reynolds
My defense isn't that bad.

2:57 Jeff Zimmerman:
On the run environment, it will matter, but not too much yet.

2:58 Steve Slowinski:
Mark, yes it is. Nice try, though. If only Vlad wasn't a DH, you'd totally belong there.


Keith Law, ESPN

Nick (Baltimore)
Keith, love your work, appreciate your work ethic. Matusz, Britton, Arrieta, Tillman. In that order?

Klaw (1:21 PM)
I give 110%. In that order, yes.

Ryan (Hanover, PA)
Thoughts on the Machado injury?

Klaw (1:56 PM)
He's just out a few weeks, right? So I think ... he'll be back in a few weeks.

Nick (Baltimore)
I am home sick from work so I am finally able to see your chat live! (espn is blocked) Any thoughts on the O's at 4? I am really hoping Trevor Baeur is our man if he is there.

Klaw (2:03 PM)
I believe he's in their mix, and don't see him going ahead of that.

Delmarva at Asheville: Slideshow

Delmarva at Asheville: May 7th and 8th

As the big club struggles, it is difficult to maintain your passion for baseball. 13 losing seasons, going on 14 is tough to take. Especially as offseason decisions continue to, predictably, blow up in the front office's face.

But if you need your baseball batteries recharged, leave it to minor league baseball to get it done. Not AAA ball. Too many retreads and broken dreams. If your head is in the wrong place, it can be even more depressing. 

But AA or lower? It's fantastic.

I drove up to Asheville, NC this weekend to watch the Delmarva Shorebirds take on the Asheville Tourists. Ideally, I was going up to catch young phenom Manny Machado. But he hurt his knee and was not going to be playing. 

But that didn't matter for many reasons.

First there was the setting. The games were played in McCormick Field, an old field that has been in use since 1924 (it was renovated as recently at 1991). It's a gorgeous little park and it's just cozy.

Second, there was actual winning baseball being played as the Shorebirds won on both Saturday and Sunday.

Third, it's great to watch a bunch of guys who are still having a ton of fun playing ball. You can really see it. And it makes you smile

Some observations on a few of the players

SS/3B Jonathan Schoop

Big kid and won't turn 20 until October. Looks smooth and natural at short where he is filling in for the injured Manny Machado. Big arm in the field and effortless power at the plate. More on Schoop over here.

2B Mychal Givens

Givens has a batting line of .152/.235/.171 on the season so I was expecting to see some brutal at bats from him this weekend. But I didn't. He has a good approach at the plate, worked the count and seemed to have a good eye. He only went 1 for 6 but squared up the ball and hit it hard on a regular basis and walked three times over the two games. He has a lot to work on but if he puts is together with the bat, that approach will take him up the organizational ladder pretty fast. 

His speed was just OK, not a blazer. 

In the field, he was was very smooth at second, especially turning the double play.

LF Ty Kelley

The more I see of Ty Kelley, the more I like him. Of course, I like him better at second base where he played last season but the influx of infield prospects has pushed him to left field. He did show off some good range in the outfield but has an arm like a wet noodle.

Looks good at the plate though, slapping singles to the opposite field and showing some gap power when he pulled it. Only one double to show for it this season but he hit 30 doubles for Delmarva last season. He's hitting .329/.383/.342 and will turn 23 in July. It's probably time to see what he can do in Frederick.

C Justin Dalles

My latest minor league catcher crush, Dalles is back in Delmarva after suffering through injuries in 2010, most brought about by two nasty collisions at the plate. Perhaps that's still in his head as he took a step up from the plate, away from the baseline, to field a throw from the cutoff man during a play at home.

But Dalles looks in complete control behind the plate. I can't put my finger on it but there are guys who look like they know exactly what they're doing when they call the game and Dalles is one of them. He's OPSing .768 with 3 homers. Just one walk though. He needs to get his walk rates back closer to last year and the 22-year old will probably end up in Frederick by season's end.

LF Kipp Schutz 

Schutz is 23...too old for low A but his bat has come out of nowhere in his full seaosn league debut. Schutz's last two season in Bluefield and Aberdeen have been kind of "blah" and now he's one of the offensive stars of the Sally League.

He has very good pull power. He jumped on a first pitch fastball, turned on it and just hit a rainbow shot over the 36 ft wall in right field. But he swings a lot. He draws some wlaks but seems to get by in many at bats by fouling off pitches and waiting for one to hit. You have to think that will be tougher to do as he moved up the line. Still, a guy who's hitting .368/.424/.561 is pretty fun to watch.

LHP Jacob Pettit

I didn't think there was much to watch on the pitching front in Delmarva season but I was lucky enough to get to watch two of the guys I was interested in seeing. Jacob Pettit was one of them.

Pettit seemed to get stronger as the game went on.  His fastball was sitting at 87-89 mph (these are stadium gun speeds) during the first inning but was sitting at 90-91 by his last inning while toughing 93. But his offspeed stuff was what was getting the swings and misses. He has good control, always staying around the plate and gets a fair share of groundballs. If he was a righty, this would not be that impressive. As a lefty, he's kind of interesting. On the season, he has a 2.89 ERA with 28 Ks, 9 BBs and 2 homers. (37.1 IP)

He's not very athletic fielding his position but does have a pretty good move to first base.

RHP Ryan Palsha

20-year old Palsha had a fastball that sat at 92-94 and he was getting plenty of swing-and-misses from it. He is striking out opposing batters at a 10.0 K/9 rate. Like a lot of the Shorebird relievers, he also walks a ton of guys too (8.2 BB/9). 

RHP Scott Copeland

Copeland is out of the University of Southern Mississippi and looks the part of a power pitcher. He is big and he throws hard, sitting in the mid-90's the day I saw him. However, he also had no idea where it was going and when the batters caught up to the fastball, they were able to hit it a long way. 5.8 K/9 and 5.0 BB/9. Not thick enough for a 22-year old in low-A.

C Michael Ohlman

I've been trying to get to a game where Ohlman was actually playing for two seasons now. Ohlman was an overslot signing taken in the 11th round in 2009. He scuffled at the plate last year and I was curious to see how he was adapting in year two of professional ball.

You know all those things I wrote about Dalles looking completely in control behind the plate? I saw very little of that in Ohlman. He made two throwing errors, he dropped a ball that Schoop fired into the plate that should have been a sure out and he looked downright uncomfortable catching Scott Copeland. The only way I can describe it is that he looked like a guy who wans't used to catching the caliber of stuff that Copeland had. But Copeland was wild and he probably just wasn't comfortable because he didn't know where the ball was going. All in all, Ohlman did not look good behind the plate.

At the plate was a different matter. After hitting .208/.302/.293 between Bluefield and Delamrva last season, Ohlman was having a much better season at the plate before his start on Sunday. He looked completely in control and confident with his bat. He worked counts and didn't make an out all day. He had two singles, a double and a grand slam hit over the centerfield wall. He ran the bases well, had good speed and looks way more athletic than you would expect from a catcher. Ohlman is hitting .310/.388/.510 over 20 games and looks to finally be fulfilling the promise he had when the O's drafted him out of high school. He doesn't turn 21 until after the season. He needs work on his defense but it's a nice bat.

Guest Post on MASNSports.com: Orioles Have More Than One Great Shortstop Prospect

Guest post on MASN where I give some observations on Delmarva SS/3B Jonathan Schoop from the past weekend.

It's Not Clay Rapada's Fault

There are things that concern me about Buck Showalter.

I am a supporter. I was a big fan of Buck getting the manager job here in Baltimore but there are things that he does that leave me scratching my head.

When the Orioles signed Clay Rapada this offseason, it seemed like an odd fit. He was a LOOGY and I wondered if this team could afford to carry a guy like that in the bullpen with so many young starters in the rotation. For his career, Rapada has allowed a .505 OPS to lefthanded hitters and a 1.111 OPS to righthanded batters. Rapada could be effective when facing lefthanded batters. He should face right handed batter somewhere between rarely and never.

So what has Buck done with Clay this season?

             PA   K   BB   HR   AVG    OPS
vs. LHB      19   7    1    0  .111   .269 
vs. RHB       7   0    2    2  .800  3.057

Righties are batting .800 against Rapada. Eight-hundred.

Clay Rapada may be demoted this week but he doesn't stink. He shuts down leftie batters and get abused by righties. This is what he is. And maybe he doesn't have a spot on this team. Maybe they need a more versatile reliever at this point.

But his 11.12 ERA isn't his fault. It's Buck Showalter's.

He's trying to fit a square peg into a round hole. I wonder what other decisions he is making using this logic.

Baby Birds Roundup - 5/8/11

Delmarva Shorebirds

Manny Machado has been sidelined with an injury but 3B Jonathan Schoop has slid back to his natural postions at short and is still hitting well with a .340/.347/.553 line over his last 10 games. If not for Machado, I'd be really excited about his prospects as the elusive Oriole shortstop of the future.

More on Delmarva tomorrow...

Frederick Keys

1B Tyler Townsend continues to crush Caroilina League pitching with a .405/.405/.833 line over his last 10 games. He has 24 strikeouts against only 1 walk all year but I don't think he is being challenged in A ball at all. With the recent injury to Baysox 1B Joe Mahoney, perhaps the Orioles can promote him so he can be challenged and start working on his plate discipline.

2B LJ Hoes is finding his footing after a season lost to injury and illness in 2010. Hoes has a line of .341/.386/.512 over his last 10 games, raising his season OPS to .704 and giving hope that he can progress in 2011.

RHP Bobby Bundy continues his hot start to the season as he has struck out 15 and only walked 4 over his last two starts.

Bowie Baysox

C Caleb Joseph continues to be one of the few bright spots on offense for the AA club with a .235/.316/.471 line over the last 10 games. His newly found plate discipline (12 walks against 14 strikeouts) is very encouraging.

On the pitcing side, RHP Dan Klein has continued his good work since his promotion throwing 3 innings of shutout baseball.

Right handed relief pitcher Jose DIaz is listed at 6'4" and 300 pounds. He also has thrown 13.2 innings with a 1.45 ERA, 11 Ks and 3 BBs.

RHP Steve Johnson had a rough stint in Norfolk but has been very good since returning giving up just a lone run over two starts while racking up 13 strikeout against 2 walks.

Norfolk Tides

Offensively, the story in Norfolk in 1B Brandon Snyder with his .889 OPS for the season and his .324/.395/.486 line over the last 10 games.

However, 2B Ryan Adams is making a bod to join him. Adams has had a tough learning curve to start the season but the last 10 games he has hit .381/.435/.476 with 4 doubles. He will always have questions defensively but the guy can hit.

In case you're curious, Nolan Reimold is OPSing .843 over his last 10 games.

On the pitching staff, there is Troy Patton and only Troy Patton (11.0 IP, 10 K, 2 BB, 0 HR, 3.27 ERA)

This Week in Chat - 5/8/2011

Where we distill all the week's baseball chats down to their Oriole essence...

JJ Cooper, Baseball America

Will T. (Cary, N.C.): Can Brandon Snyder be a starting first baseman in the majors?

J.J. Cooper: It doesn't seem like even the Orioles still think that—they talked about him being a versatile utilityman when he was in the big league camp in spring training.

Mark (Sydney): Mr. Cooper, what's going on with former first round pick Matt Hobgood? Thanks.

J.J. Cooper: Hobgood is trying to work his way back from a shoulder injury. I wouldn't expect much out of him over the first half of this season. If he can start pitching competitively in June or so and stay healthy the rest of the year while showing pre-injury stuff, I bet the Orioles would be very happy.

Spencer (Baltimore): Who do you think is the long term answer at first base for the orioles, Joe Mahoney, Brandon Snyder or someone else?

J.J. Cooper: Someone else.


Jerry Crasnick, ESPN

Matt (Milford, De)
Is Zach Britton the front runner for AL Rookie of the Year?

Jerry Crasnick (12:04 PM)
Matt, Last week I pointed out that I was feeling good about my Michael Pineda ROY choice, and I received a flood of responses from Zach Britton advocates. If what we've seen so far is any indication, it could be a nice little slugfest between those two kids.

jason (richmond, VA)
what do you think about weiters so far this year? He is hitting 9-10 with RISP i believe is this going to be the year he brings the bat to the ballpark to?

Jerry Crasnick (12:34 PM)
Jason, Wow, I didn't realize that until you mentioned it. Matt Wieters has an OPS of 2.923 with men in scoring position. From the people I've talked to, his bat is still a work in progress, but his defense (particularly his throwing) is extremely impressive. With all the talent on that young staff, they need him to think defense first and pitch in with some key hits. So far he's doing that.

Zack (CT)
9-10 with RISP? SMAL SAMPLE SIZE ALERT

Jerry Crasnick (12:35 PM)
Zack, There are small sample sizes, and ridiculous smal sample sizes. 9-for-10 catches your eye no matter what we're talking about.


Jonah Keri, FanGraphs.com

12:41 Comment From Guest
In fantasy, would you trade Wieters for Garza?

12:41 Jonah Keri:
Yes.

1:14 Comment From Nat
What do you think about Adam Jones? He always confounds me

1:14 Jonah Keri:
Still young. Can take guys a long time to figure it all out. I always remember Brandon Phillips in these instances.

1:27 Comment From Eric
What do you see for McCutcheon the rest of the year? Like him more than Adam Jones?

1:27 Jonah Keri:
Definitely prefer McCutchen over Adam Jones. Real life or fantasy.


Jack Moore, FanGraphs.com

1:24 Comment From Os
Where do you think Britton ends up? Nice ratios so far, QS and wins, Zips rest of season is above 4, do you believe he is due for regression?

1:25 Jack Moore:
From what little I've seen him pitch, he has pretty nasty stuff. I'm sure he'll hit some sort of rookie wall at some point and his FIP is way above his ERA right now, so yeah, there's some regression coming. But I do think he'll be useful. Your best bet, though, is probably trying to deal him.


Dave Cameron, FanGraphs.com

12:03 Comment From Jevant
Can you give any positive news for a frustrated Nick Markakis fantasy owner?

12:03 Dave Cameron:
You are (hopefully) not a positive Vernon Wells owner?


David Schoenfield, ESPN

Nick Markakis (Baltimore)
I am offically a bust? Every year I seem to have high expectations and never reach them. What's your take on my future?

David Schoenfield (2:35 PM)
Bust? That's harsh. You're still a very good player. Just not the great player everyone thought you'd be after hitting 23 home runs at 23. But you still hit 40+ doubles every and play good defense. You're just off to slow start this year.

Paul (Atlanta)
Isn't Markakis esentially Mike Greenwell reincarnated? Similar start to his career followed by similar disappointment that he didn't become somthing more.

David Schoenfield (3:06 PM)
Good comparison. Both were very polished hitters when they arrived, and also sort of had "old player" skills in that they weren't necessarily fast runners but already had good strike zone judgment. I believe Greenwell had some injuries that led to his career being shortened?


Keith Law, ESPN

Adam Jones (Baltimore)
Cant... Stop... .Swinging... At... Sliders... IN.... the... DIRT!!!!

Klaw (1:34 PM)
They're just so pretty!

Shoshana (Boston)
Who are the Orioles on in the draft? Safe to say they take 1/3 between Hultzen/Stallings/Bundy? Or are they on someone else?

Klaw (2:15 PM)
Have heard them on Jed Bradley but I think that's cooled. Could see Bauer. Keep hearing college arm, but Bundy is kind of like a college arm and I know they really like him. Don't think they're on Gray. Pretty sure every team in 1-8 except maybe Seattle is at least thinking about Bauer.


Jim Shonerd, Baseball America

Will T. (Cary, N.C.): When will Manny Machado be in Frederick?

Jim Shonerd: The key question right now is when will he be back in Delmarva. It sounds like the Orioles think his knee injury isn't too serious. Hopefully that's the case.