Donovan Moore: What is Jeremy Guthrie’s True Trade Value?

Thanks to Donovan Moore for another guest post!

With the trade deadline coming in just a matter of weeks, talks between potential trade partners will almost certainly heat up quite soon. The Orioles have already pulled the trigger on one small deal. With Hardy newly locked up through 2014, and Luke Scott fatally wounded, it would seem as though the Orioles’ only viable trade chips for 2011 are pitchers. Personally, I am a fan of having a fire sale that would have every Oriole that wouldn’t be a part of the next winning team up on the block. The problem with that however is that the MacPhail regime seemingly isn’t ready to go into full rebuilding mode. Andy’s contract expires at the end of the 2011 season, and it doesn’t bode well for his chances of contract renewal if he admits defeat right at the end of his first tenure.

The Orioles are not having a fire sale in 2011. The Orioles will very likely just make a few low risk/low reward swaps such as the one where they parted with dear old Nick Green (who?) for some guy who throws baseballs with his left hand. With that being said however, let’s take a look at just exactly how much the Orioles should be asking in return if they were to wise up and deal Jeremy Guthrie.

Unless Jeremy Guthrie suddenly turns into a 3-4 WAR pitcher (career average of ~2.2 WAR/year), he will never be more valuable than he is right now. He was more valuable yesterday than he is today, and even more so the day before that—but his arbitration years are almost over. Using a trade value calculator put together by Sky Kalkman of Beyond the Box Score, I have effectively estimated exactly how much value Guthrie has as of today.

The 2011 numbers have obviously been halved, seeing that the 2011 season is roughly halfway through. I estimated that Guthrie will post 1.2 WAR in the second half—because he posted 1.2 WAR in the first half. I used a going rate of $4.8M/WAR for 2011, and given the figures, estimated that Guthrie will have an excess value of ~$2.9M for the remainder of 2011. 2012 is Guthrie’s last arb year, meaning that he should command a raise to roughly 80% of his WAR value. For 2012, I used a going rate of $5.0M/WAR, and used Guthrie’s career WAR average (2.2) to estimate a 2012 salary of $8.8M. Given the going rate of $5.0M/WAR, in 2012 I have estimated that Guthrie will generate ~$2.2M of excess value. Add in the fact that I have estimated that Guthrie will be a Type B free agent (+$2.5M in draft compensation value), and his grand total of excess value through 2012 is ~$7.6M.

Notice the number of times I used the word “estimate” in the preceding paragraph. Without owning a crystal ball, it is not possible to know with any sort of certainty what Guthrie’s true value will be through the 2012 season, but $7.6M is very likely a fairly accurate estimation.

So… what type(s) of prospect(s) would come back in a trade where the excess value on one side is $7.6M? With much thanks to Victor Wang’s extensive research on prospect values it is possible to put a dollar amount on the worth of different types of prospects:

Obviously the only way to truly know the value of a prospect is to see whether he pans out or not…but that defeats the whole purpose of obtaining a player while he is still a prospect. The hope is that you have bought cheap and that you will be rewarded handsomely when the prospect pans out—but not every prospect does, and for that reason, Wang’s research has incorporated the possibility of any given type of prospect busting. The dollar amount put to any given type of prospect is an average of future values of all of the prospects in that category.

So in order to break even any potential trade for Guthrie, the Orioles would need to get back a Grade B hitter ($5.5M) + a Grade C pitcher 22 or younger ($2.1M). Given MacPhail’s affinity for pitching prospects, maybe he would look to get back a Grade B pitcher ($7.3M) + a Grade C hitter 23 or older ($0.5). These would be instances where the Orioles set themselves up to break even on a deal for Guthrie—but if offered anything more than these examples, they should definitely jump right on it.

Guest Post: Looking Back, Looking Forward

With work and real life robbing me of my blogging time, a kind reader, Donovan Moore, offered to contribute a piece. I told him it didn't have to be too ambitious but he submitted a mini-thesis looking back and the first half of the Orioles' season and some predictions of things to come. Thanks, Donovan!  Enjoy...

The Orioles have lost the last seven games in a row, 12 of the last 13, and 20 of the last 26.  It almost seems like an eternity ago that the O’s were hovering right around .500 and playing decent ball… because when the wheels fall off like they have in the past few weeks, time really seems to just drag on and on and on.  

The Orioles opened the 2011 season with a three game sweep against the defending AL East champion Tampa Bay Rays.  Afterwards, the O’s came home and took two out of three from the Detroit Tigers, and then handed the 2010 AL Champion Texas Rangers their first loss of the season.  The energy in Baltimore was palpable, and for one week fans knew what it felt like to cheer for a winner. The overwhelming success was short-lived however, as the Yankees, Indians, and Twins handed our beloved Orioles six straight losses—and everything was back to normal.

The Orioles went on to go 12-13 in April, 12-16 in May, 11-14 in June, and are currently 1-9 in July.  That makes for a total of 36-52—16 games under .500. 

The 2011 season has certainly been a story of a quirky cast of characters that I feel like I have gotten to know personally during their time with the team.  In order to properly review the first half of the season, it is necessary to look at each player individually and assess what they have done this season for the Orioles.  

           

Pitchers (Graph of values)

Here you can see the value measured in fWAR of every oriole pitcher to take the hill this season.  Guthrie and Britton are in the lead for starters, and Johnson and Uehara are the only relievers to post positive fWAR values besides Simon (0.2fWAR) and Hendrickson (0.1fWAR) in his one appearance so far.

Jeremy Guthrie

As a starter 3-11 114IP 4.26ERA 4.12FIP 4.11xFIP 5.84K/9 2.37BB/9 2.47K/BB 1.33WHIP

As a reliever 0-1 4.1IP 2.08ERA 3.19FIP 4.54xFIP 8.31K/9 4.15BB/9 2K/BB 1.15WHIP

Overall 1.5fWAR

Guthrie’s numbers in 2011 so far are pretty in line with his career numbers.  He is throwing a ton of innings, and at this rate will hit the 200IP plateau for the third straight year.  The only curious thing about his numbers so far this year is that for the first time in his big league career, Guthrie is not out-performing his peripherals.  The fact that Guthrie is able to consistently do this is a rarity that has been written on time and again, but just as there is no clear reason as to why he has been able to do it repeatedly, there is no clear reason as to why he is not doing it so far in 2011.

ZiPS for the second half:  5-6 92IP 4.50ERA 4.37FIP 5.58K/9 2.45BB/9 2.28K/BB 1.32WHIP

Chris Tillman

2-3 48IP 4.69ERA 3.60FIP 4.86xFIP 6K/9 3.75BB/9 1.6K/BB 1.60WHIP

Overall 0.9fWAR

Tillman pitched in the Major League rotation until May 30 when he was optioned to AAA Norfolk.  He had his ups and downs up in the bigs in 2011, but in the end he still couldn’t cut it. It’s hard to believe that it’s only been about two years since Tillman was down in Norfolk posting a 9.92K/9 with a 2.70ERA to boot.  He’s got a lot of work to do if he ever wants to reclaim the status of elite prospect, and he’s certainly not on the way to doing so--posting a subpar line of 3-2 4.30ERA 5.35FIP and only 5.2K/9 since being banished to Norfolk this year.

Zach Britton

6-7 104.1IP 4.05ERA 3.97FIP 3.88xFIP 5.52K/9 3.36BB/9 1.64K/BB 1.36WHIP

Overall 1.5fWAR

Rookie Zach Britton burst onto the scene early in 2011, getting the call to the Major League rotation when Matusz hit the DL before the season was ever underway.  In his first couple of months, Britton turned even his harshest critics into his biggest fans--posting a 2.84ERA in May and a 3.00ERA in June.  Britton, however has come crashing back down to earth, not earning a victory in a start since June 8^th and before that May 1^st.  After allowing 7ER without even getting out of the first inning in his only start in July, Britton was optioned down to AA Bowie.  Expect to see the spry lefty back up in the bigs after about 20 days—or the amount of time that it takes to cut his service time enough to put off his first year of free agency.

ZiPS for the second half:  3-5 69IP 5.09ERA 4.38FIP 5.61K/9 4.04BB/9 1.39K/BB 1.61WHIP

Jake Arietta

9-6 97.1IP 4.90ERA 4.92FIP 4.33xFIP 7.12K/9 4.44BB/9 1.6K/BB 1.4WHIP

Overall 0.4fWAR

Jake Arietta started the season in the Major League rotation for the first time in his career—and has stuck there so far.  Arietta has shown flashes of his potential this season, and has been the most consistent starter for the O’s other than Guthrie.  His walk totals are still entirely too high for him to have any sort of overwhelming success in the Majors, however it is nice to see that so far in 2011, his strikeout numbers are more in line with what he did in the minors –because last year they just weren’t anywhere close (4.66K/9 in 2010 versus 7.12K/9 in 2011 so far).  And, of course this wouldn’t be a blurb about Arietta without bringing up a guarded concern for those annoying bone chips in his elbow that flare up once in a while—only for him to claim adamantly that he can deal with them by simply stiffening his upper lip.

 ZiPS for the second half: 4-6 71IP 5.20ERA 4.73FIP 6.46K/9 4.69BB/9 1.38K/BB 1.59K/BB

Brad Bergesen

As a starter- 1-6 48.1IP 5.59ERA 3.89FIP 4.58xFIP 5.4K/9 2.79BB/9 1.93WHIP

As a reliever- 0-0 17IP 5.82ERA 4.72FIP 3.60xFIP 6.35K/9 2.65BB/9 2.4K/BB 1.18 WHIP

Overall 0.7fWAR

Bergesen too cracked the starting rotation at the onset of the 2011 season, however he didn’t stick there.  Beregsen struggled as a starter and was optioned back and forth from AAA Norfolk every five minutes until he was recalled for the last time on June 18^th to serve as a member of the bullpen.   Since joining the relief corps, Bergesen has been pretty much the same exact pitcher he was when he was starting—not good.

ZiPS (these are clearly for him as a starter—which he very likely will not ever be again unless as an emergency/spot starter) for the second half:  3-5 68 IP 5.03ERA 4.50FIP 4.79K/9 2.65 BB/9 1.8 K/BB 1.46WHIP

Brian Matusz

1-4 25.2IP 8.77ERA 7.4FIP 5.07xFIP 6.31K/9 3.86BB/9 1.64K/BB 1.99WHIP

overall -0.5fWAR

Brian Matusz started the season on the DL with an intercostal strain, and now his velocity has almost completely left him.  Matusz used to put on pitching performances that mainstream media outlets used to hail as “Masterful,” however recently the only thing Matusz has been a master of is breaking my heart into little tiny pieces.  I had the misfortune of watching him rehab at A+ Frederick on his way back from injury, and you had to be blind not to see red flags everywhere.  Instead of missing bats, he was consistently missing the strike zone.  When he was getting hit (which was often) he was getting hit HARD.  Luckily for him, most of the hard hits went right at people, and he escaped with only allowing 1ER in 4IP.  Once back in the majors, his fastball that used to break into the low 90s on occasion was sitting at 86-87—and he was paying dearly for it.  Since being optioned to AAA Norfolk on July 1^st, Matusz has allowed 6ER in 11IP.

Chris Jakubauskas

As a starter – 2-2 27.1IP 6.91ERA 4.93FIP 4.53xFIP 6.59K/9 3.95K/9 1.67K/BB 1.72WHIP

As a reliever– 0-0 15.2IP 5.74ERA 6.6FIP 4.84xFIP 4.6K/9 4.02BB/9 1.14K/BB 1.79WHIP

Overall -0.1fWAR

What is there to really say about Chris “Jabberwalky” Jakubauskas?  He was brought in to add pitching depth to the team, and he’s provided just-under replacement level production thus far in the bigs.  It’s a pretty sad state of affairs in Baltimore though when a guy like Jakubauskas is called on for a spot start, and sticks in the rotation for 6 starts.

ZiPS for the second half:  1-3 30IP 5.40ERA 5.09WHIP 5.1K/9 3.3BB/9 1.55K/BB

Mitch Atkins

0-0 7.2IP 8.22ERA 7.39FIP 4.44xFIP 4.7K/9 1.17BB/9 4K/BB 2.09WHIP

Overall -0.2fWAR

Atkins was another off-season depth signing.  Does anyone want to guess what organization he spent his entire career playing for pre-2011?  I’ll give you a hint:  think “who is the Oriole’s GM?”  Atkins is very likely a career minor leaguer, and if he is given the ball every five days in the bigs, he will very likely continue to pitch like one.

ZiPS for the second half: 2-4 43IP 6.49ERA 5.89FIP 6.07K/9 3.77BB/9 1.61K/BB 1.63WHIP

Alfredo Simon

As a starter – 0-1 4.2IP 5.79ERA 4.46FIP 5.71xFIP 1.93K/9 5.79BB/9 0.33K/BB 2.36WHIP

As a reliever – 1-2 21.1IP 4.64ERA 3.57FIP 3.94xFIP 7.17K/9 2.95BB/9 2.43K/BB 1.50WHIP

As an outlaw – 1.0ASM (Arrests on Suspicion of Murder)

Overall 0.2fWAR

I’m fairly certain that the Orioles didn’t plan on having Simon available to pitch this season--but as it turns out he was--and they needed the warm body desperately.  It didn’t take long after his return, for the Orioles to add Simon to their repertoire of roughly replacement level nobodies that they call the bullpen.  Hey! He even made a start, too! Cool!

ZiPS for the second half:  1-1 19IP 4.74ERA 4.06FIP 6.16K/9 3.32BB/9 1.86K/BB 1.42WHIP

Jason Berken

1-2 29.1IP 5.83ERA 5.41FIP 3.98xFIP 8.9K/9 3.63BB/9 2.42K/BB 1.60WHIP

Overall -0.3fWAR

These are highly disappointing overall numbers for a guy that last year looked like he would be a force to be reckoned with in the bullpen for the O’s.  Berken won a vacation to Norfolk, VA on May 21^st and he pitched well enough (3.86ERA, 3.63FIP) to be recalled on June 15^th.  Since being recalled, Berken has pitched to roughly a 3.00ERA.

ZiPS for the second half:  1-2 30IP 4.80ERA 4.19FIP 7.2K/9 3.3BB/9 2.18K/BB 1.47WHIP

Mike Gonzalez

1-1 31.1IP 5.46ERA 5.57FIP 4.12xFIP 8.62K/9 4.31BB/9 2K/BB 1.69WHIP

Overall -0.4fWAR

Gonzalez was um…   not exactly a fan favorite after he pitched to a 7.89ERA in April and May combined, all the while enjoying the second year of a lucrative contact to be the shut-down closer for this Baltimore club.  I remember back in May when calls for Gonzalez’s head on a platter were commonplace.  Gonzalez however pitched to a 1.64ERA in June, and he has been all but banished to exclusively low leverage situations. Every time I eye with envy Gonzalez’s numbers from 2004 with Pittsburg (3-1 43.1IP 1.25ERA 1.60FIP 11.42K/9 1.29BB/9), I can hardly bring myself to believe that our Gonzalez is even the same human being.

ZiPS for the second half: 1-1 23IP 4.70ERA 4.31FIP 9.39

Kevin Gregg

0-1 34.1IP 3.41ERA 4.68FIP 4.73xFIP 7.34K/9 5.5BB/9 1.33K/BB 1.49WHIP

Overall -0.2fWAR

Introducing Kevin Gregg, the below-replacement-level closer of your 2011 Baltimore Orioles!!  I am pretty sure Gregg made good on his entire stupid contract when he tried to punch out David Ortiz.  Gregg’s ERA has been serviceable in the first half—but don’t expect to see the same result in the second half without some serious luck.  With a FIP and xFIP both nearing 5, a sky-high walk rate, and a 1.49WHIP, Gregg is bound to crash back down to earth soon.  Despite what the television announcers for the Orioles say, there is no such thing as a closer that works better under pressure by giving up hits and walks before he finally escapes in a jaw dropping tightrope act—there are just bad pitchers, and Kevin Gregg is one of them.

ZiPS for the second half:  2-2 28IP 4.50ERA 4.03FIP 6.75K/9 3.54BB/9 1.91K/BB 1.46WHIP

Jim Johnson

5-2 52.1IP 2.75ERA 2.94FIP 3.11xFIP 6.02K/9 1.72BB/9 3.5K/BB 1.18WHIP

Overall 1.0fWAR

Jim Johnson leads all AL relievers in IP—by a margin of 5.1 innings, too—and is 8^th in fWAR for AL relievers (Incidentally, Gonzalez is dead last in this category, and Berken is second-to-dead-last).  J.J. is a bright spot on a team where bright spots are few and far between.  My only worry is that all of those innings will catch up to him, and he’ll either stop being available as much, or won’t be nearly as effective as he keeps his arm from falling off with tape and glue.

ZiPS for the second half:  5-2 29IP 3.72ERA 3.30FIP 6.21K/9 2.48BB/9 2.5K/BB 1.31WHIP

Koji Uehara

1-1 40IP 2.03ERA 2.91FIP 2.45xFIP 11.7K/9 1.8BB/9 6.5K/BB 0.75WHIP

Overall 0.7fWAR

Koji is pretty much awesome, and if I had a party I would totally want him and his sideburns there.  Although sis impressive 6.5K/BB leads all AL relievers— it is not nearly as impressive as 2010’s 11.0K/BB--but I’ll sure as hell take it.  A quick glance at the leaderboards for AL relievers shows that Koji leads in WHIP (0.75), and K/BB (6.50), is 2^nd in BAA (.155), 3^rd in xFIP (2.45), 5^th in BB/9 (1.8), and 6^th in K/9 (11.7).  I have not yet ruled out magic as the source of Koji’s awesomeness.  For some mysterious reason, ZiPS for Koji’s second half of 2011 aren’t available… let’s hope this isn’t a bad omen…

Pedro Viola

0-0 3.2IP 9.82ERA 13.05FIP 5.28xFIP 9.82K/9 4.91BB/9 2K/BB 2.18WHIP

Overall -0.2fWAR

Viola has posted decent numbers at AA this year (2.25ERA 3.31FIP), however he just hasn’t been able to have that translate into Major League success.  There are some pretty legitimate concerns such as his control, but we’ll see what the latter half of 2011 has in store for this young lefty.

ZiPS for the second half:  1-2 23IP 6.65ERA 5.44FIP 6.65K/9 5.09BB/9 1.31K/BB 1.83WHIP

Clay Rapada

0-0 12.1IP 7.30ERA 5.47FIP 3.73xFIP 9.49K/9 4.38BB/9 2.17K/BB 1.54WHIP

Overall -0.4fWAR

Rapada really isn’t as bad as his numbers show he has been in 2011.  Rapada should, however never be allowed to toe the rubber against a right-handed batter.  His splits reveal a 1.76ERA and 13K against lefties this year.  With how thin the O’s bullpen has been stretched this year however, Rapada ended up being used against righties on occasion and the result was almost always catastrophic (8ER allowed in 1.2IP).  Through little fault of his own, Rapada was outrighted to AAA Norfolk on July 1^st.

Josh Rupe

0-0 14.1IP 5.65ERA 8.19FIP 4.8xFIP 4.4K/9 3.77BB/9 1.17K/BB 1.53WHIP

Overall -0.3fWAR

Rupe was another depth singing in the offseason, and this one just really didn’t work out well.  In 32.1IP since accepting an assignment to AAA Norfolk early on this year, Rupe has posted a 6.40ERA and 4.19FIP.  Don’t expect to see him back in Baltimore orange and black.

Troy Patton

Overall 0.0fWAR

0-0 2.1IP 7.71ERA 7.24FIP 3.67xFIP 11.57K/9 3.86BB/9 3K/BB 1.29WHIP

Patton is a legitimate Minor League talent that just hasn’t been given the proper opportunity to make his mark in the Majors.   That’s more than can be said for half of the clowns in the O’s bullpen, so it’s puzzling as to why Patton hasn’t been given much of a crack at it.  In 42.1IP in AAA in 2011, Patton has posted a dominant 1.91ERA with a 2.87FIP to go along with it.

Jeremy Accardo

3-3 32.1IP 5.29ERA 5.00FIP 4.87xFIP 5.57K/9 4.73BB/9 1.18K/BB 1.67WHIP

Overall -0.2fWAR

Accardo was a reclamation project that Mister MacPhail seems to have abandoned—for good reason.  Accardo was outrighted to AAA Norfolk on June 22^nd to make room to recall Brad Bergesen.  Don’t expect to see Accardo back up in Baltimore any time soon—that is unless the Orioles get even more desperate than they were to keep him up here for so long in the first place.

Mark Hendrickson

0-0 2.1IP 3.86ERA 2.10FIP 2.10xFIP 3.86K/9 0BB/9 1K/BB 1.29WHIP

Overall 0.1fWAR

I wouldn’t be surprised if Hendrickson ends the season with a negative fWAR, however it’s hilarious to me that in one appearance he has already been more valuable than Brian Matusz, Mitch Atkins, Jason Berken, Mike Gonzalez, Kevin Gregg, Troy Patton, Pedro Viola, Clay Rapada, Jeremy Accardo, and Josh Rupe have been all season long.  If only “professionalism” and “veteran presence” could win ball games.

ZiPS for the second half:  1-2 31IP 4.94ERA 4.07FIP 5.81K/9 2.61BB/9 2.22K/BB 1.45WHIP

Position Players

Here you can see the value measured in wRC+, UZR(FRAA for catchers), and fWAR for the Orioles’ position players in the first half of 2011.  This graph does not overstate how bad Reynolds has been with the glove.

Matt Wieters

78G .264/.322/.406 .728OPS 8HR 34RBI .323wOBA 100wRC+ 5.0FRAA

Overall 2.3fWAR

What is there really to be said about the Switch Hitting Jesus himself?  Well, probably that right now he’s hitting at a league average level according to wRC+, but he is posting a 2.3 fWAR.  That’s right, the guy touted as being “all-bat” that had questions surrounding him concerning whether or not he could even stick at catcher is now among the elites at the position.  In fact, his 5.0 Fielding Runs Above Average in the first half leads all AL catchers. The reality is that if Wieters continues to put up defensive numbers like this, he’ll really never need to hit… but wouldn’t it be cool if he did?

ZiPS for the second half: .270/.337/.411 .728OPS 7HR 33RBI .331wOBA

Craig Tatum

11G .304/.393/.348 .741OPS 0HR 3RBI .336wOBA 109wRC+ 0FRAA

Overall 0.2fWAR

Tatum’s .304AVG is supported by an unreasonably high .389BAIP--hence why ZiPS have him hitting .225 in the latter half of the season.  Overall, Tatum has done a fine job backing up Wieters at the Catcher position, posting average defensive numbers to go along with silly offensive totals.

ZiPS for the second half:  .225/.278/.303 .581OPS 1HR 11RBI .262wOBA

Robert Andino

68G .263/.335/.316 .651OPS 1HR 7RBI .295wOBA 81wRC+ +0.2UZR

Overall 0.6fWAR

Andino has done a nice job filling in where necessary this year—even going on a tear enough to hit leadoff for a bit.  However, since his numbers have come crashing back down to earth, and it’s becoming evident that he will probably never reach what was once thought to be his potential.  In general, if a player is so devoid of power that his SLG is lower than his OPB, he better be a wizard with the glove or a terror on the base paths.  Andino is neither.

ZiPS for the second half:  .247/.296/.364 .660OPS 4HR 17RBI .293wOBA

Blake Davis

11G .259/.375/.333 .708OPS 0HR 2RBI .319wOBA 97wRC+ -0.7UZR

Overall 0.0fWAR

Davis wasn’t exactly knocking down the door to the bigs from Norfolk, but he was called up when Ryan Adams was optioned down.  He has been exactly replacement level in his 11 Games for Baltimore, and he is apparently not significant enough for ZiPS to have a second half projection for him.

J.J. Hardy

61G .278/.338/.498 .836OPS 13HR 33RBI .361wOBA 127wRC+ -2.1UZR

Overall 1.8fWAR

J.J. Hardy has been another one of those rare bright spots on this struggling team.  He seems to have, at least in the first half of 2011, returned to the form that made him one of the top-hitting Short Stops in the game with the Brewers in 2007 and 2008.  UZR+/- has him at -2.1 so far in 2011, which is a bit of a surprise given how solid his defense has looked.  It seems as if his future with the O’s is either extend him or trade him at this point.

ZiPS for the second half:  .269/.323/.443 .776OPS 8HR 26RBI .335wOBA

Derrek Lee

70G .235/.294/.372 .666OPS 9HR 28RBI .294wOBA 80wRC+ +3.2UZR

Overall 0.2fWAR

Lee has been sort of the anti-Mark Reynolds, being wonderful in the field and awful with the bat.  Not much to be said here.  He is old.  Something stupid about “veteran presence” could be added too.  He has been worth exactly $1M of that $7.25M contract so far.  Oops.  These projections for him are just way too optimistic.

ZiPS for the second half:  .260/.333/.430 .763OPS 9HR 34RBI .335wOBA

Mark Reynolds

87G .227/.346/.493 .839OPS 20HR 49RBI .366wOBA 130wRC+ -17.5UZR

Overall 0.7fWAR

Reynolds’s low BA is not as much of an issue as it might appear at first glance.  He is leading the O’s in OBP, OPS, HR, wOBA, and wRC+.  He is walking more (14.5%) than his career average (11.8%), and is striking out less (27.9%) than his career average (34.3%).  In fact, his 50 walks are good for 8^th in the AL.  Now… if only he wasn’t such a disaster in the field.  His 20 errors lead the league, and his FLD% is a disgusting .894%.  His glove takes away almost all of the value created by his bat.

ZiPS for the second half:  .221/.326/.484 .810OPS 17HR 42RBI .353wOBA

Adam Jones

87G .285/.328/.457 .785OPS 13HR 49RBI .344wOBA 114wRC+ -10.1UZR

Overall 1.4fWAR

The Gold Glove Adam Jones won in 2009 is a joke… at least as far as UZR is concerned.  If you include 2011, he has now posted a negative UZR in three consecutive seasons, which for defensive metrics is pretty much enough to make the conclusion that you’re not just seeing small sample size.  Jones has put up decent numbers offensively in the first half, with a .344wOBA.  It’s nice to dream about the offensive force Jones could be if he just had better plate discipline.  Among qualified batters in the AL in 2011, the only player who swings at a higher percent of pitches out of the zone than Jones is…you guessed it:  Guerrero. 

ZiPS for the second half:  .284/.333/.455 .785OPS 10HR 38RBI .344wOBA

Nick Markakis

87G .292/.339/.379 .718OPS 7HR 36RBI .322wOBA 100wRC+ 0.0UZR

Overall 1.3fWAR

Nick Markakis is doing again what he has been doing now for the third year in row…being right about average with the bat.  It seems as if our Nicky is doomed to be perennially mediocre… which is fine; just not at the rate the Orioles are paying him.  Markakis had a .204AVG at the end of April, but bounced back hitting .287 in May and .351 in June.  Markakis is 5^th in the AL in hits with 107.

ZiPS for the second half:  .289/.356/.425 .781OPS 7HR 35RBI .345wOBA

Luke Scott

63G .223/.305/.408 .713OPS 9HR 22RBI .313wOBA 93wRC+ -2.0UZR

Overall 0.1fWAR

For much of the season, Scott has either been out with injury or playing with injury.  Here’s hoping that his offensive numbers were just a result of playing hurt, and that he can get healthy as soon as possible.  Season-ending surgery might not be that horrible so long as he can come back healthy in 2012.

ZiPS for the second half:  .250/.335/.462 .797OPS 9HR 27RBI .346wOBA

Felix Pie

67G .223/.248/.273 .521OPS 0HR 5RBI .233wOBA 38wRC+ -5.3UZR

Overall -1.2fWAR

Felix Pie has just been downright awful in 67 games this season.  The fact that he keeps getting any playing time at all is an abomination.  If he had enough plate appearances to qualify, he would have the third worst fWAR total in the Major Leagues.

ZiPS for the second half:  .255/.299/.386 .685OPS 3HR 16RBI .301wOBA

Nolan Reimold

27G .257/.338/.443 .781OPS 4HR 12RBI .335wOBA 109wRC+ -0.6UZR

Overall 0.3fWAR

Nolan Reimold was freed from the Minors on May 20^th, but through no doing of his own.  Reimold was posting an awful .237/.329/.410 slash line at AAA.  Since being up in the bigs, his slash line looks a tad healthier.  Really, the only difference between the numbers he was posting in 2009 and so far in 2011 is the difference of a .316BAIP (2009) versus a .275BAIP (2011).  I’ll be the first--but certainly not the last--to say:  GET THIS MAN SOME PLAYING TIME!!

ZiPS for the second half:  .253/.333/.418 .751OPS 7HR 23RBI .336wOBA

Vladimir Guerrero

83G .279/.331/.309 .716OPS 7HR 31RBI .309wOBA 91wRC+

Overall 0.0fWAR

At the All-Star break, former All-Star and future Hall of Famer, Guerrero is showing signs that he could very well be done.  After signing an $8M deal with the Orioles this offseason, he has been worth exactly $0 of that deal at the halfway mark.  Yes, Guerrero is playing at exactly replacement level, with his wRC+ being below average.  His .106ISO is the lowest he has ever posted in a full season.  The second lowest was 2010’s .196ISO.  A .106ISO puts Guerrero in the company of such feared sluggers as Yuniesky Bentancourt, Chase Headley, and Michael Bourn.

ZiPS for the second half:  .287/.322/.340 .662OPS 9HR 33RBI .340wOBA

Brian Roberts

39G .221/.273/.331 .604OPS 3HR 19RBI .276wOBA 68wRC+ -0.7UZR

Overall 0.2fWAR

Did Roberts really play 39 games so far this year?  I guess it really just seems like he hasn’t been on the team almost at all since 2009.  The bottom line for Roberts is that no one can really tell when or if he’ll be back in uniform, and even when he was “healthy” this season, he wasn’t good. 

ZiPS for the second half:  .263/.340/.403 .743OPS 4HR 18RBI .337wOBA

Ryan Adams

9G .217/.280/.217 .497OPS 0HR 1RBI .235wOBA 40wRC+ -1.9UZR

Overall -0.3fWAR

Adams got a short shot at filling in at Second Base after Roberts went down and Andino cooled off.  He didn’t do much with the bat, and considering he is an “all-bat-no-glove” prospect, that didn’t warrant him staying in the bigs. I am surprised, however that he didn’t get more of an extended look in the Majors given his pretty good line of .288/.353/.416 in AAA this season.

Jake Fox

19G .188/.250/.396 .646OPS 2HR 4RBI .284wOBA 73wRC+ -2.4FRAA

Overall -0.4fWAR

Fox hilariously led the entire world in HR in Spring Training this year, and then showed us who he really was once the regular season started, appearing in only 19 games before being jettisoned off to AAA Norfolk.  Fox is currently mashing and always has mashed MiL pitching—this season to the tune of .275/.326/.514.  Don’t expect to see him back in Baltimore any time soon—if ever.

Brandon Snyder

6G .231/.412/.308 .720OPS 0HR 1RBI .345wOBA 115wRC+

Overall -0.4fWAR

Maybe Snyder could do something with a real shot in the Majors, maybe not.  But the Orioles will never know if they never give him a real look.  However, his pedestrian numbers down in Norfolk (.271/.326/.431 .333wOBA 105wRC+) aren’t exactly making a case for him to get any kind of extended playing time in Baltimore.

With a current rotation of Guthrie, Arietta, Jakubauskas, Atkins, and Simon things aren’t looking very bright at all for the Orioles.  With Matsuz struggling down in Norfolk and Britton stashed away at Bowie, it is hard to really find much to be excited about as far as the starting rotation is concerned.

             The Orioles are currently 1-9 in July, and the road leading to August doesn’t get any easier than the road leading from June was.  In the coming weeks, the Orioles play serieses against the Indians, Red Sox, Angels, Blue Jays, and Yankees—all of whom have a combined winning percentage of .554%.  .554% is the exact winning percentage of the Texas Rangers—so for the rest of the month of July the Orioles’ schedule averages out to playing the Texas Rangers…over and over again every day.

             It’s hard to imagine things getting any better at this point.  However, last season at the All-Star break, the 2010 Orioles were sitting at 25-59 and they were somehow able to find a spark under new Manager Buck Showalter to go 41-37 in the second half of the season (34-23 under Showalter).  If last season is anything to go by, there might still be hope for something positive to come out of the latter half of 2011 for the Baltimore Orioles yet.

Programming Note

Hello.

Some recent changes at work have added a lot of new responsibilities and a much larger work load on me right now. Since I worked on a lot of these posts during my lunch hour (which has become non-existent), my posts have become rare and, indeed, the short-term and possibly long-term future of Dempsey's Army is kind of in doubt.

I'm seeing a bit of light at the end of the tunnel and hopefully by mid-July I should be able to get things cranking again.

Thanks for your patience.

Blogger on Blogger with Matt Vensel

Blogger on Blogger: Where I answer some questions for BaltimoreSun.com's Matt Vensel or the worst YouPorn category ever? You decide!

This Week in Chat - 6/27/11

Hello there.

My TWiC entry for the week is up over here at Camden Depot. Enjoy!

This Week in Chat - 6/21/2011

Hello, again.

If you liked the "This Week in Chat" recaps I had been doing this season, I have started posting them with Camden Depot over at the ESPN Sweetspot blog. Here's the link to this week's rundown.

More on this space soon, I promise...

Guest Blogging for MASN.com Again

Hi! You miss me?

Well, you didn't have to. I was guest posting over at the Oriole Buzz blog on MASNSports.com this week and never had a chance to let anyone know. But there's a week's worth of posts over here.

Back to regularly scheduled programming next week.

2011 MLB Amateur Draft: For the Orioles, It's Got to be Cole

For most of last season, it appeared that the Orioles would have the first pick in the 2011 Amateur Draft and that Anthony Rendonwould be their third basemen of the future. As the end of the season neared, the Orioles seemed assured of the second pick, at least, and that if they didn't get Rendon, they would certainly get UCLA stud pitcher Gerrit Cole. But they kept playing well and ended up at #4. Nobody knew what to expect with the #4 pick.

But if you had told those draft saavy Oriole fans that Baltimore would still have a chance to get Gerrit Cole with the #4 pick, they would have been pretty happy about that.

And now, that just might happen.

I would love to have Rendon in the organization, assuming his medicals are good but he's not going to slip that far down. However, there is word that Cole might.

With the ascendancy of other pitchers in 2011, UVA lefty Danny Hultzen, UCLA hurler Trevor Bauer and Oklahoma high school wunderkind Dylan Bundy are all putting themselves in the conversation among the first three picks. So there are scenarios in which Cole could fall into the Orioles' lap.

And if that happens, they have to take him. He was the best pitcher coming into the season and I really don't think anyone else has unseated him. There are many devotees of Bundy among the Oriole fan base (whose brother Bobby is already pitching in the org for Frederick) but I'm sorry, I don't think he's better yet. Bundy is reportedly very polished for a high school pitcher but he's not more polished than Cole.

Don't get me wrong. Unlike last year when I would have been very disappointed if Baltimore had not signed Manny Machado, I don't think the O's can go wrong with any the talent available at #4. Bundy would be awesome. Hultzen would be an amazing lefty to pair with Brian Matusz and Zach Britton and would have a fast track to the majors. And there are other college arms who are intriguing.

But in the unlikely event that Cole slips....Baltimore has to pounce.


(I'll be on vacation next week, hence the early post on the draft. See you in 10 days or so when I do another round of guest posting for MASNsports.com.)

Vlad is Teflon. There's Nothing to be Done

In Vlad's dreams, Father Time takes the shape of a large parrot...

I was going to say that this post was not me picking on PressBoxOnline.com Oriole beat reporter Matt Palmer. But that would be disingenuous. I am totally going to pick on him to make a larger point.

Matt decided to give grades to various facets of the team for their performance up to the end of May. Here's a sample.

Infield
Grade: C-


...Hardy missed most of April with an intercostal strain, but in 25 games, has not made an error. Offensively, he's been decent, batting .234 with 12 runs driven in and nine runs scored.


Reynolds is no better now than he was when he arrived with the Orioles. He is batting .198 and has struck out 52 times, good for nearly one per game. At this pace, he'll miss .200 for the first time since 2007. Still, he has just seven home runs. If that's his bread and butter and that's not happening, something's wrong. His on-base, slugging and on-base plus slugging percentages are at career lows. He has nine errors and is halfway to the number he had last year...

Now, if we're just going to cite batting averages, hitting .234 is not "decent". Cesar Izturis hit .230 last season. But Hardy is up to .250 and will likely hit better so that's just nitpicking on my part.

And he is not at all wrong about Mark Reynolds. All those thing are absolutely true. Remember them.

Designated Hitter
Grade: B+


For the most part, the Orioles are getting what they expected out of Vladimir Guerrero. He has 23 RBIs with five home runs, so his power abilities are starting to diminish just a bit. Still, he changes the lineup's dynamics just by his mere presence. He leads the team in batting average (.295) and hits (61). The question remains, how long will he be in Baltimore? He's going to be attractive to American League teams with playoff hopes next month.

Let's take this line by line. Getting what they expected out of Guerrero? He is on a pace for 15 home runs so far. 15. Vlad has never hit fewer than 25 over a full season. That is NOT what the Orioles expected out of Vlad. His "power abilities are starting to diminish"? They've diminished! They're gone!

And there it is. Let's let this phrase lie for a second:

"Still, he changes the lineup's dynamics just by his mere presence."

Oh, it's OK then. Because Vlad is magic.

I am beginning to believe that Vlad is magic. He is able to make his poor performance look attractive to a whole lot of fans and media.

And how has this change in dynamic helped the club? This is one of the worst scoring teams in the American League. Only Minnesota, Seattle and Oakland are worse. (And we see how our offense stacks up against Oakland and Seattle in their home parks.) Vlad Guerrero is not a talisman. He's a washed-up hitter. Period.

And he is NOT going to look attractive to AL teams with playoff hopes. He stinks. Let's apply this phrase written about Reynolds to Guerrero.

Still, he has just (five) home runs. If that's his bread and butter and that's not happening, something's wrong. His on-base, slugging and on-base plus slugging percentages are at career lows.

All of the above statements are as true about Vlad as they are about Reynolds. Hell, Reynolds isn't even hitting that much worse than Vlad at this point. (.307 wOBA for Reynolds, .315 wOBA for Guerrero.)

And Guerrero gets a B+. It's just unbelievable.

Matt's not alone is his assessment. Many people think Vlad is having a fine season and is just peachy. It's the great Orange and Black swindle of 2011.

The Obligatory Nolan Reimold Post

Reimold in Norfolk...for the last time...

I haven't written about Nolan Reimold since his recall from Norfolk nearly two weeks ago which may seem odd since I kept the "Reimold in Exile" vigil on Twitter for 53 straight days.

Mostly, it's been because I had mixed feelings about the call up. Reimold was only called up due to injuries to other players and, after some struggles in AAA, Reimold was finally hitting his stride in Norfolk and I was afraid that he would ride the bench in Baltimore and not get enough at bats to help his development or help the team.

Those fears have turned out to be unfounded. Reimold has gotten plenty of ABs which is all I was wanting for the guy. Failure or success, I wanted Reimold to get his playing time in the majors. Not because he "deserved" it (which is such a nebulous concept anyway) but because it was best for the team to find out what he was and what he could be.

The fact that he has started so well is great. But mostly it's great that he is helping the team and it will help him get more playing time going forward. There is no vindication for me. Not yet.

(Of course, I think that even with the limited sample we have here, it is apparent that Reimold absolutely has the potential to be a good major leaguer. It was incredibly frustrating to see him dismissed by those who gave him absolutely no credit for 2009 but chose instead chose to judge him from 6 weeks of at bats in 2010. So I lied. There's a little vindication here.)

I mean, I saw how he played in 2009. I know he was not fully healthy last year. I know that a young hitter with good patience and good power has a fair shot at being successful in the major leagues. His .357/.455/.714 line through his first 10 games is not at all surprising to me. He's a good hitter. He won't hit like that all the time obviously but he's going to have stretches where he does.

I was just hoping he would get a good 400 plate appearances this season. I'm hoping the hit start will get him those chances and we can see how much (or little) he could help the team in 2012. When Vladimir Guerrero and Derrek Lee are long gone.

Baby Birds Roundup - 5/24/11

Delmarva Shorebirds

OF Kipp Schutz is hitting .425/.455/.600 over his last 10 games. His OPS for the season is 1.016. He's 23 and he's not being challenged....get him up to Frederick.

IF Ty Kelly has found his power stroke with .381/.435/.500 with a couple doubles and a homer over his last 10 games.

I won't bore you with yet another Jonathan Schoop recap but he's still hitting well.

Righty reliever Clayton Schrader hasn't given up an earned run over his last 7 appearances spanning 18 innings. For the season, 22 IP, 38 Ks, 13 BBs and a lone homer.

Over his last 10 games, 1B Mike Flacco has hit .474/.523/.763 and was named Sally League player of the week.


Frederick Keys

Speaking of honors, SP Bobby Bundy was named Carolina League pitcher of the week. Over his past two starts, he has thrown 14 innings while striking out 11 while walking just 2 and allowing just one earned run.

3B Buck Britton (and brother of Zach) was OPSing .938 in Frederick and finally got a promotion to Bowie this week. He walked more than he struck out (8 BBs to 7 Ks) and he just turned 25. It was time.


Bowie Baysox

After a slow start, CF Xavier Avery is hitting .308/.400/.410 over his last 10 games with 4 doubles. Still just 21, it would be great if Avery build on this nice run.

Lefty reliever Cole McCurry has given up just one earned run this season. One. In 25.1 IP in AA this season, he has 32 strikeouts and just 7 walks.


Norfolk Tides

Most of the talent worth talking about is in Baltimore right now.

LHP Troy Patton probably should be. With all the poor pitching going on in the Baltimore pen, Patton has a 2.60 ERA over 17.1 innings in AAA (15 Ks, 5 BBs, 0 HR).

And after a rough start to the season, LHP Mark Hendrickson has a 1.91 ERA over his last 28.1 innings. (15 Ks, 4 BBs, 2 HR) Surely Hendrickson and Patton offer something better than Mike Gonzalez right now.

Righty reliever Pat Egan has found his control over the last 6 appearances and as a result, he has allowed no runs over his last 12.2 innings.

This Week in Chat - 5/22/11

Where we distill all the week's baseball chats down to their Oriole essence...

Jonah Keri, FanGraphs.com

12:23 Comment From John
Your discussion with Longoria reminded me of an article I read a few years back about Brian Roberts wearing contacts with a red tint to them so he could pick up the ball better? Are these still used? I haven't read anything about them since.

12:24 Jonah Keri:
See I'm fascinated by stuff like that. I'd be trying every little trick if I played, or made decisions for a major league team, to gain an edge.

I might try to look into this, good call.

1:03 Comment From Zach Britton
Why is there so much ROY hype for Jeremy Helickson and not so much for me?

1:03 Jonah Keri:
What hype is this? I like Hellickson, but it's not like he's leading SportsCenter on a nightly basis.

Jim Callis, Baseball America

Jeff (North Carolina):
Who do the o's take with the 4th pick? Dylan Bundy in the mix, despite his huge demands?

Jim Callis:
I've been hearing the Orioles would prefer a college pitcher. I don't think the demands matter much, because they're so high (six years, $30 million) that clubs don't believe they're close to realistic. They'd love a shot at Danny Hultzen.


David Schoenfield, ESPN

John (MI)
Thoughts on Adam Jones so far? .280 average, 20HR/20SB this season?

David Schoenfield (1:31 PM)
Seems like I get an Adam Jones question every week. He's been hitting lately and he's up to .283 with a .777 OPS, which is actually above league average these days. He's drawn a walk in three straight games, which is probably a career high. Unless he can lay off the offspeed stuff away, this is the best I think we'll see from him ... which isn't terrible, just not what everybody projected a few years ago.

Derr (Mental Ward)
Do you think if Adam Jones got moved up in the lineup he could potentially be a highly productive player. Problem is he has Reynolds hitting behind him so he never sees any good pitches

David Schoenfield (2:04 PM)
Lineup protection is generally overrated. Jones doesn't see any "good" pitches because pitchers know he'll swing at the bad ones.

Matt Eddy, Baseball America

Shoshana (Baltimore):
It's depressing enough being an Orioles fan. Any hope for the future from the farm system besides Machado? Throw us a bone and at least answer a question on the Orioles :)

Matthew Eddy:
Baltimore has the fourth pick in the draft, and that's only three weeks away. Don't forget that the O's have a lot of young major leaguers who could still improve — Matusz, of course, but also Arrieta and Reimold and Tillman.


Keith Law, ESPN

Jack (D.C.)
I like your idea of the Orioles taking Bundy, but I keep hearing they want a college arm. Where do all the rumors come from, are they made up? Also, any reason you believe they'd pass on Cole?

Klaw (2:29 PM)
Most teams view Bundy as the equivalent of a college arm because he's so polished and is physically well-developed. He's a big leaguer in 2 to 2.5 years.

Ryan (Hanover, PA)
Why does Starling keep falling in all of your mocks? I would love to see the Orioles take him at #4

Klaw (2:38 PM)
It's just cost. He's not "falling" in the sense of talent or performance, but fear that he won't sign or - more likely - fear that he'll want more money than teams are willing to spend. They'd rather spend that $10 million on one year of Rafael Soriano, I guess.

Guest Post on MASNSports.com: Orioles Bullpen has been a Money Pit

Another guest post on MASNSports.com, this one about the futility of fixing a bullpen with expensive free agents. Enjoy.

Fearless Predictions Revisited

Where I take another look at what I predicted back in March...

If Brian Roberts plays in 130 games, I'm going with 80 wins. If he ends up on the DL, 76 wins.

This one remains to be seen but Roberts has stayed healthy thus far and the team is only 2 games under .500.

Zach Britton wins the AL Rookie of the Year. Yeah, Jeremy Hellickson is the odds on favorite but I think Britton comes up on the outside and catches him.

This one looks way better than it did in March. He is probably ahead of Hellickson but Seattle's Michael Pineda probably edges out Britton at this point with his eye-popping strikeout total.

Adam Jones breaks out this season. A mild breakout, something like a .295/.340/.450. 20 home runs. But a breakout nonetheless.

As discussed yesterday, Jones is hitting .283/.335/.441 and is on a pace for 20 home runs. He's not there yet but he's pretty close.

I can't predict playing time but Nolan Reimold will finish the season with a higher OPS than Vladimir Guerrero. So will Luke Scott.

Not yet...not yet. But Luke Scott is ahead of Vlad...for now.

Jeremy Guthrie will, once again, have an ERA lower than his FIP. Probably significantly so.

Guthrie's FIP is 4.64 and his ERA is 3.98. On target.

Nick Markakis will hit 40 doubles. Again. Also will have at least a .360 OBP.

Only 4 doubles and a .311 OBP so far. A loooonnngg way to go.

Matt Wieters hits 15 home runs. Anything else he does is anybody's guess.

He's on a pace for 16 homers and has become one of the better defensive catchers in the league.

Luke Scott will OPS north of .850.

He's OPSing .766 and has a hurt shoulder. This one is not looking good.

Josh Rupe doesn't see May 15th in Baltimore. He sees it from Norfolk.

Rupe was sent to Norfolk on May 10th.

Zach Britton is in Baltimore before May 15th.

He was in Baltimore before April 15th.

JJ Hardy will be a fan favorite by June 1st.

I think this is a fait accompli.

Matt Albers will outperform most of the Oriole pen while pitching for Boston.

Albers has a 1.65 ERA over 11 games and good peripherals. Nobody in the Oriole 'pen looks better

Mark Hendrickson ends up playing a large role in the Oriole season. Take that as you will.

Hendrickson has not been good in Norfolk but as bad as the rest of the bullpen has been, he'll get a shot soon and he'll probably stick.

Mark Reynolds hits 30 homers and has 200 Ks.

Reynolds is on pace to strikeout only 170 times but only 20 homers. Long way to go to reach those numbers.

Guest Post on MASNSports.com: Ranking the Pitchers in the Orioles Hall of Fame

The latest guest post on MASNSports.com can be found here. Enjoy.

Is Adam Jones Breaking Out?

edit: I had this post ready to go on Friday morning before The Great Blogger Outage of '11 happened. I lost most of the post but pieced it back together. I updated with current stats but I may have missed something as I cobbled it back together. But here it is anyway...

Oriole center fielder Adam Jones is hitting .284/.333/.447 (wOBA .346)this season. Through May 11th of last season, he was hitting .230/.257/.353. His OPS+ of 118 (117 wRC+) would be the highest of his career if he can maintain it. The question is, is Adam Jones finally having a breakout season?

Jones was my pick for Oriole breakout player in 2011. I didn't predict big things. A .295/.340/.450 line with 20 home runs. Mild breakout. And right now, those numbers look very reachable for him.

But Jones has had his hot streaks before. Is this just another tease? I wanted to take a closer look.

Some peripheral data from the last three seasons:

BB%    K%   BB/K   HR/FB%   ISO   BABIP
2009     6.9  19.7   .39     17.8   .180   .308
2010     3.7  20.5   .19     11.4   .158   .328
2011     6.4  17.7   .40     12.5   .163   .307

The walk rate is up from his career numbers, his strikeout rate is at a career low and his homer rates, ISO and BABIP are certainly sustainable numbers. This hot streak does not look lucky at all. This is all pretty encouraging but I went and grabbed some plate discipline data from FanGraphs.com.

Plate discipline data from the last three seasons:

Season     O-Swing%    Z-Swing%    Swing%    O-Contact%    Z-Contact%    Contact%    SwStr%
2009        35.2 %      73.3 %     53.6 %      57.3 %        83.3 %       74.5 %     13.3 %
2010        40.6 %      71.0 %     54.6 %      62.1 %        84.0 %       75.2 %     13.2 %
2011        45.4 %      71.2 %     58.4 %      66.1 %        84.7 %       77.6 %     12.3 %

This is the troubling part about Jones. He is swinging at balls outside the strikezone more than ever. He's becoming even more of a free-swinger than he ever was. Now, he's making much better contact on those balls (a trend that has continued over the past three seasons) and is striking out less than ever.

There are two possibilities here. Either he has been getting extremely lucky with the production he's been getting by hitting those balls outside the strikezone or he has developed a freakish Vladimir Guerrero-like ability to hit anything near the plate well enough to keep on swinging.

So consider me a skeptic...if Jones keeps this up for most of the season, I guess we could consider this a breakout. But I'm betting on some regression in the near future.

This Week in Chat - 5/15/2011

Where we distill all the weekly baseball chatsdown to their Oriole essence...

Dave Cameron, FanGraphs.com

12:20 Comment From Guest
Taillon or Machado if Machado moves to 3b?

12:20 Dave Cameron:
Take the hitter. Almost always take the hitter.


Jonah Keri, FanGraphs.com

12:03 Comment From Cheese
Is Luke Scott going under the knife? Should he be replaced by (gulp) Milton Bradley?

12:04 Jonah Keri:
Scott's still playing as of now, despite a torn labrum. He might still be able to hit with the condition, we'll see.

Don't see what the O's would want with Bradley. They're not winning anything this year anyway, and Bradley obviously comes with more baggage than your usual veteran flyer.


Ben Badler, Baseball America

Chris (Chicago): \
Please rank the following in terms of their long-term major league impact: Zack Britton, Mike Montgomery, Mike Minor, Joe Odozirri.

Ben Badler:
Montgomery, Britton, Odorizzi, Minor

Jon Bass (Ann Arbor, MI):
All right, this technically isn't a Hot sheet question since Zach Britton is in Baltimore, but does he return to the minors when everyone else is healthy? He is their best pitcher right now.

Ben Badler:
Britton has to stay. Send Bergesen or Tillman back to Triple-A.

Rick (Chicago):
What kind of potential does Brett Jackson have and how would he compare to someone like Adam Jones? Thanks.

Ben Badler:
They're both good athletes who run well but aren't burners, have power but are prone to swing and miss, but Jackson's approach at the plate is well ahead of anything Jones has ever shown.


Matt Klaassen, FanGraphs.com

1:13 Comment From AK
Adam Jones, simply on a to-be-expected hot streak, or turning into the player Os fans have been waiting for?

1:14 Matt Klaassen:
If I had to bet, I'd say "hot streak," but he' still young enough that this could be "it," despite my skepticism about small sample "breakouts." I will say that Jones has been more disappointing than Wieters overall, given that Wieters plays a harder position and plays it well, and Jones not only hasn't hit all that well, but hasn't come close to matching his defensive reputation.


Steve Slowinski/Jeff Zimmerman, FanGraphs.com

1:59 Comment From Paul
What are your thoughts on Mark Reynold's start to the seaon?

2:00 Jeff Zimmerman:
I try not to

2:01 Steve Slowinski:
Well, to put it bluntly, he's been really bad. His batting average is even lower than last year's (thanks to an even lower BABIP) and his defense is as atrocious as you'd expect. The power hasn't appeared much yet, which is the worst part...thankfully that doesn't stabilize for a while still, though, so he could break out anytime.

2:01 Jeff Zimmerman:
His K's are down. Sadly, I feel the Orioles are stuck with him.

2:02 Steve Slowinski:
But he's not a bad option for them right now - I think it's too early to give up hope entirely. If that power appears at some point, he'll still be a decent player.

2:04 Comment From xandersdad
Will Luke Scott make it through the season with his shoulder?

2:05 Steve Slowinski:
Required joke: I refuse to believe it'll be an issue until I see the long-form doctor's note. (It's okay, I know I'm not funny)

2:05 Jeff Zimmerman:
No and he shouldn't be trying to play through it right not. Best case - mediocre season, Worst case - re-injures and can never play again.

2:57 Comment From Mark Reynolds
My defense isn't that bad.

2:57 Jeff Zimmerman:
On the run environment, it will matter, but not too much yet.

2:58 Steve Slowinski:
Mark, yes it is. Nice try, though. If only Vlad wasn't a DH, you'd totally belong there.


Keith Law, ESPN

Nick (Baltimore)
Keith, love your work, appreciate your work ethic. Matusz, Britton, Arrieta, Tillman. In that order?

Klaw (1:21 PM)
I give 110%. In that order, yes.

Ryan (Hanover, PA)
Thoughts on the Machado injury?

Klaw (1:56 PM)
He's just out a few weeks, right? So I think ... he'll be back in a few weeks.

Nick (Baltimore)
I am home sick from work so I am finally able to see your chat live! (espn is blocked) Any thoughts on the O's at 4? I am really hoping Trevor Baeur is our man if he is there.

Klaw (2:03 PM)
I believe he's in their mix, and don't see him going ahead of that.

Delmarva at Asheville: Slideshow

Delmarva at Asheville: May 7th and 8th

As the big club struggles, it is difficult to maintain your passion for baseball. 13 losing seasons, going on 14 is tough to take. Especially as offseason decisions continue to, predictably, blow up in the front office's face.

But if you need your baseball batteries recharged, leave it to minor league baseball to get it done. Not AAA ball. Too many retreads and broken dreams. If your head is in the wrong place, it can be even more depressing. 

But AA or lower? It's fantastic.

I drove up to Asheville, NC this weekend to watch the Delmarva Shorebirds take on the Asheville Tourists. Ideally, I was going up to catch young phenom Manny Machado. But he hurt his knee and was not going to be playing. 

But that didn't matter for many reasons.

First there was the setting. The games were played in McCormick Field, an old field that has been in use since 1924 (it was renovated as recently at 1991). It's a gorgeous little park and it's just cozy.

Second, there was actual winning baseball being played as the Shorebirds won on both Saturday and Sunday.

Third, it's great to watch a bunch of guys who are still having a ton of fun playing ball. You can really see it. And it makes you smile

Some observations on a few of the players

SS/3B Jonathan Schoop

Big kid and won't turn 20 until October. Looks smooth and natural at short where he is filling in for the injured Manny Machado. Big arm in the field and effortless power at the plate. More on Schoop over here.

2B Mychal Givens

Givens has a batting line of .152/.235/.171 on the season so I was expecting to see some brutal at bats from him this weekend. But I didn't. He has a good approach at the plate, worked the count and seemed to have a good eye. He only went 1 for 6 but squared up the ball and hit it hard on a regular basis and walked three times over the two games. He has a lot to work on but if he puts is together with the bat, that approach will take him up the organizational ladder pretty fast. 

His speed was just OK, not a blazer. 

In the field, he was was very smooth at second, especially turning the double play.

LF Ty Kelley

The more I see of Ty Kelley, the more I like him. Of course, I like him better at second base where he played last season but the influx of infield prospects has pushed him to left field. He did show off some good range in the outfield but has an arm like a wet noodle.

Looks good at the plate though, slapping singles to the opposite field and showing some gap power when he pulled it. Only one double to show for it this season but he hit 30 doubles for Delmarva last season. He's hitting .329/.383/.342 and will turn 23 in July. It's probably time to see what he can do in Frederick.

C Justin Dalles

My latest minor league catcher crush, Dalles is back in Delmarva after suffering through injuries in 2010, most brought about by two nasty collisions at the plate. Perhaps that's still in his head as he took a step up from the plate, away from the baseline, to field a throw from the cutoff man during a play at home.

But Dalles looks in complete control behind the plate. I can't put my finger on it but there are guys who look like they know exactly what they're doing when they call the game and Dalles is one of them. He's OPSing .768 with 3 homers. Just one walk though. He needs to get his walk rates back closer to last year and the 22-year old will probably end up in Frederick by season's end.

LF Kipp Schutz 

Schutz is 23...too old for low A but his bat has come out of nowhere in his full seaosn league debut. Schutz's last two season in Bluefield and Aberdeen have been kind of "blah" and now he's one of the offensive stars of the Sally League.

He has very good pull power. He jumped on a first pitch fastball, turned on it and just hit a rainbow shot over the 36 ft wall in right field. But he swings a lot. He draws some wlaks but seems to get by in many at bats by fouling off pitches and waiting for one to hit. You have to think that will be tougher to do as he moved up the line. Still, a guy who's hitting .368/.424/.561 is pretty fun to watch.

LHP Jacob Pettit

I didn't think there was much to watch on the pitching front in Delmarva season but I was lucky enough to get to watch two of the guys I was interested in seeing. Jacob Pettit was one of them.

Pettit seemed to get stronger as the game went on.  His fastball was sitting at 87-89 mph (these are stadium gun speeds) during the first inning but was sitting at 90-91 by his last inning while toughing 93. But his offspeed stuff was what was getting the swings and misses. He has good control, always staying around the plate and gets a fair share of groundballs. If he was a righty, this would not be that impressive. As a lefty, he's kind of interesting. On the season, he has a 2.89 ERA with 28 Ks, 9 BBs and 2 homers. (37.1 IP)

He's not very athletic fielding his position but does have a pretty good move to first base.

RHP Ryan Palsha

20-year old Palsha had a fastball that sat at 92-94 and he was getting plenty of swing-and-misses from it. He is striking out opposing batters at a 10.0 K/9 rate. Like a lot of the Shorebird relievers, he also walks a ton of guys too (8.2 BB/9). 

RHP Scott Copeland

Copeland is out of the University of Southern Mississippi and looks the part of a power pitcher. He is big and he throws hard, sitting in the mid-90's the day I saw him. However, he also had no idea where it was going and when the batters caught up to the fastball, they were able to hit it a long way. 5.8 K/9 and 5.0 BB/9. Not thick enough for a 22-year old in low-A.

C Michael Ohlman

I've been trying to get to a game where Ohlman was actually playing for two seasons now. Ohlman was an overslot signing taken in the 11th round in 2009. He scuffled at the plate last year and I was curious to see how he was adapting in year two of professional ball.

You know all those things I wrote about Dalles looking completely in control behind the plate? I saw very little of that in Ohlman. He made two throwing errors, he dropped a ball that Schoop fired into the plate that should have been a sure out and he looked downright uncomfortable catching Scott Copeland. The only way I can describe it is that he looked like a guy who wans't used to catching the caliber of stuff that Copeland had. But Copeland was wild and he probably just wasn't comfortable because he didn't know where the ball was going. All in all, Ohlman did not look good behind the plate.

At the plate was a different matter. After hitting .208/.302/.293 between Bluefield and Delamrva last season, Ohlman was having a much better season at the plate before his start on Sunday. He looked completely in control and confident with his bat. He worked counts and didn't make an out all day. He had two singles, a double and a grand slam hit over the centerfield wall. He ran the bases well, had good speed and looks way more athletic than you would expect from a catcher. Ohlman is hitting .310/.388/.510 over 20 games and looks to finally be fulfilling the promise he had when the O's drafted him out of high school. He doesn't turn 21 until after the season. He needs work on his defense but it's a nice bat.

Guest Post on MASNSports.com: Orioles Have More Than One Great Shortstop Prospect

Guest post on MASN where I give some observations on Delmarva SS/3B Jonathan Schoop from the past weekend.