Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Alfredo Simon Getting a Payday?

Alfredo Simon was acquitted of an involuntary murder charge in the Dominican Republic.

As you probably remember, Simon was accused of shooting a man during a New Year's Eve celebration about 11 months ago. At the time, I thought that was the last we would see of Simon in an Oriole uniform. Evidently, I was wrong as he appeared in 23 games for Baltimore in 2011 (including 16 starts) and was one of the better starters for the O's late in the season.

But that's not why I wrote this blurb. It was because of this phrase that caught my eye and gave me a good chuckle:

According to local news website gentetuya.com, Simon is expected to sign a $12 million contract with the Orioles.

That, on first blush is a completely laughable concept. According to Cot's Contracts, Simon isn't even eligibile for arbitration until 2013. Why would you sign him to any contract before then? They never did this to, say, Jeremy Guthrie. Why take that risk?

Now, Simon was (a bit surprisingly) worth 1.1 WAR according to Fangraphs.com which places his value to the team at $5 million for 2011. Even if you think that FanGraphs is a bit too liberal with it's valuations, Simon was probably worth $3.5-4 million. If you spread that $12 million over Simon's remaining years of control, that's $3 million per season.

Sure, he might be worth that. But would you really want to bet on it? There is no way the Orioles will be looking to lock up the likes of Alfredo Simon, certainly not before he becomes eligible for arbitration.

No comments: