Running the Gauntlet: Testing the Oriole Mettle Over 12 Brutal Games

Running the Gauntlet - The condemned soldier was stripped to the waist and had to pass between a double row of cudgeling or switching comrades...Running the gauntlet was considered far less of a dishonor than a beating on the pillory, pranger, or stocks, since one could "take it like a man" upright and among soldiers...if the condemned was able to finish the run and exit the gauntlet at the far end, his faults would be deemed paid, and he would rejoin his comrades with a clean slate.

The next 12 games for the Orioles are their baseball equivalent of The Gauntlet. How they emerge from the other side will show if the season is completely lost or if they can regain some dignity.

The Orioles have stumbled to a 2-14 record. Now, they play the next 12 games against the mighty New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox, the two best monied and best comprised teams in baseball. Sure, some of these games are at home but we all know that those really won't be home games. They will all be in hostile territory. This stretch was supposed to be tough before. Now that the team is 2-14, it looks insurmountable.

But the team (and the manager) has one thing going for it...there is nothing left to lose.

Nobody expects the Orioles to win any of these series. Certainly, nobody expects them to win more than 2 of the next 12. So now we see what they're made off. Will they lay down or will they fight? Here's your chance to shock the baseball world and stick it to you AL East rivals. Imagine how much wailing and gnashing of teeth there will be in those cities if you take even ONE series of the next four. The Orioles can look the giant in the eye and then spit in it.

They need to claw, fight, cheat and steal over these next 12 games. If anybody has a corked bat, time to break it out. If Kevin Millwood knows any tricks involving Vaseline from the brim of his hat, it's time implement that plan. Spike the second baseman. Throw high and tight to the cleanup hitter. Take out the pitcher if he's in the baseline.

If you want to lay down, fine. But there are no expectations for this team right now. Seize the opportunity and rise to the level of your competition.

It's time to "take it like a man" and outlast your beatings over the next 12 games. If you survive and walk out the other side, you might just find yourselves with a clean slate heading into June.

Definiton and image from Wikipedia

AL East Roundup: Week 3

Jubilation in Boston, angst in New York and Tampa and apathy in Toronto. Here's the latest AL East Roundup...

Toronto Blue Jays

Note: Still no Jays blogger. Anyone know someone? Anyone want to just write the recap weekly? Better from a Jays fan than a Yanks one. Hit me: josephp at riveraveblues dot com.

The Jays continued to roll through the season's third week, taking two out of three from each of their opponents. Their week started and ended with Roy Halladay, who had an uncharacteristic performance on Tuesday, surrendering five runs over eight innings. This is why we need a Jays blogger to take this. Halladay had allows three through six innings, and then another two in the seventh. He tossed just 104 pitches in those eight innings, and struck out nine with no walks. The start didn't seem all that bad, but it's still five runs and a loss in the box score. He came back to win on Sunday, but his line, other than the earned runs, doesn't look as impressive: 7 IP, 3 ER, 6 K, 1 BB, 118 pitches. So he used more pitches in fewer innings, struck out fewer, walked more, and allowed fewer runs. This baseball is an odd game.

Following the Halladay loss, the Jays took an 11-inning affair 8-7 on a Kevin Millar walk-off single. The Jays were actually up 7-4 heading into the top of the ninth, but B.J. Ryan hit a guy and issued a walk to lead off the frame, and it all came unraveled from there. An error and a Michael Young home run later and the game was headed to extras. Thursday was another good start for Kevin Millwood, though he did allow three home runs. The overall damage was limited to four runs over seven innings, and the Jays finished taking two of three from the Rangers.

In Chicago the Jays opened by simply massacring the Sox 14-0 on 21 hits. Lyle Overbay was the only starter to go hitless in the affair. The Sox turned the tables the next day, defeating Brian Burres and the Jays 10-2. Then finally, in the aforementioned Halladay start on Sunday, the Jays took the game 4-3 on a go-ahead single by Scott Rolen in the eighth. Few expected the Jays to play like this, but their offense has been clicking and the pitching staff has been doing the job, despite the flurry of injuries (McGowan, Marcum, Litsch, now Romero and Ryan).

Week's record: 4-2

Season record: 14-6

Injuries: LHP B.J. Ryan (15-day DL, soreness between shoulder and back), LHP Ricky Romero (15-day DL, strained muscle on right side).

This week: Mon - Thu @Kansas City; Fri - Sun BALTIMORE

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Boston Red Sox - Surviving Grady

Not much to complain about in Red Sox Nation this week, the Sox haven't lost a game. Monday they played the traditional Patriot's Day morning game and completed a 4-game sweep of the Orioles with a dominating 12-1 victory. After a washout on Tuesday, the Sox played two against the Twins on Wednesday. Tim Wakefield pitched his second consecutive complete game in the first match-up, a rain-shortened seven inning affair. The offense was fueled with homers off the bats of Lowell, Nick Green, and the Bearded Wonder Kevin Youkilis. The second game featured Brad Penny and a Jeff Bailey homer on the way to a 7-3 win. Thursday was a scheduled off-day, giving everyone a chance to stock up on red meat, cheap beer and bail money as the Yankees were coming on Friday.

The rivalry lived up to its reputation on Friday evening. The Yanks took a 2-run lead into the ninth, only to see Mariano Rivera cough it up when Jason Bay smashed a game-tying homer. The Sox bullpen out-dueled the Yankee pen and Youk ended things in the 11th with a walk-off homer. Saturday's game - what should have been a pitching duel between Beckett and Burnett - turned into an old-fashioned barn-burner. Each team hit 3 homeruns, but it was the Red Sox bullpen again that outlasted New York. Mike Lowell had a 3-run shot and Jason Varitek, perhaps the worst bases-loaded hitter in the game, belted a grand slam. Twelve pitchers, 385 pitches, 28 hits and 27 runs kept the scorekeepers busy in the 4 hour and 21 minute marathon.

On Sunday, the series concludes with Pettitte versus Masterson and audio-pain that is Joe Morgan on ESPN. (ed note: move along, nothing to see here...)

Week's record: 6-0

Season record: 12-6

Injuries: OF Rocco Baldelli (15-day DL, strained left hamstring)

This week: Mon - Wed @Cleveland; Thu - Sun @Tampa Bay

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New York Yankees - River Ave. Blues

The Yanks' week began with rain and ended with a storm. The team opened with a solid 5-3 win over the A's, but then had a hitters' duel the next day, as lefties Brett Anderson and CC Sabathia couldn't keep the runs from scoring. The game didn't end until Melky Cabrera hit his second home run of the day in the bottom of the 14th off former Yankee Dan Giese. The real story, though, happened over the weekend.

Despite a so-so outing by Joba Chamberlain, the Yanks found themselves leading by two in the bottom of the ninth with two outs and Mariano Rivera on the mound. While Yankees fans began firing up New York, New York in their minds, Jason Bay had other plans, crushing a pitch just to the right of the Monster for a game-tying shot. In the second extra frame, Kevin Youkilis hit a bomb off Damaso Marte to steal a victory. The same could be said of Saturday, a mostly unwatchable game where the lead changed constantly. The Yanks went up 6-0 on Josh Beckett early, and it looked like A.J. Burnett had brought his A-game. Unfortunately those monitions were premature, and A.J. coughed up the lead before leaving the game. Both bullpens were terrible, but a bad call in the bottom of the eighth led to four runs and victory was all but sealed for the Sox. Finally, on Sunday night the Sox straight outplayed the Yanks, who scored just one run on a sacrifice fly.

While the Yanks' record for the week, 2-3, doesn't seem that horrible, the sting of losing winnable games against a division rival stings that much more. Lose one winnable game, that's life. Lose two straight winnable games -- that's cause for considerable frustration.

Week's record: 2-3

Season record: 9-9

Injuries: RHP Brian Bruney (15-day DL, flexor strain), RHP Chien-Ming Wang (15-day DL, hip weakness), IF Cody Ransom (60-day DL, strained quad)

This week: Mon - Wed @Detroit; Thu - Sun ANAHEIM

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Tampa Bay Rays - Rays of Light

One team has to be in last place; unfortunately for the Rays, that team is the defending American League Champions. And, let's be honest, the team has no one to blame but itself for its current standing. It's not hitting and it's not pitching. At that point, it's pretty darn hard to win ballgames. The biggest issue for the Rays is that the bullpen is allowing an ERA over 2 runs higher than it did last season. Couple that with struggles of Matt Garza and Andy Sonnanstine, and you've got the recipe for a 7-12 record, 6 1/2 games behind Toronto for first place in the division.

The Rays hope that a trip into the Metrodome - a place that has been good to the team in the past - will be just what the doctor ordered to get off this snide. They'd better hope whatever's wrong is corrected soon; a pivotal 4-game set against the red-hot Red Sox opens up this weekend at Tropicana Field. It'll take more than just Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena to carry the team. Hits will need to be strung together. Pitchers will need to work deep into games. The bullpen will need to get key outs. Essentially, the Rays need the exact opposite of everything that's happened so far to go down.

Week's record: 2-4

Season record: 7-12

Injuries: Shawn Riggans (shoulder tendonitis) - 15-day-DL, Jason Isringhausen (began rehab assignment) - 15-day-DL

This week: Mon - Wed @Minnesota; Thur - Sun BOSTON

AL East Roundup: Week 2

It lives! Week 2 of the AL East Roundup through to eyes of fellow bloggers from rival teams...


Toronto Blue Jays

None of the Jays replacements we've contacted have come through, so you're going to have to deal with ol' Joe's recap of the Blue Jays week. It's a shame none of their bloggers stepped up, because they're off to a remarkable start. They sit atop the AL East which, while it likely won't last long, has to be music to Jays fans' ears. With all the talk about the Sox, Yanks, and Rays, it must be nice looking down at them.

The week started off rough, with Jesse Litsch getting roughed up for four runs over three innings on Monday. Worse, he's now on the 15-day DL with a right forearm strain, never a good omen. He won't even throw a baseball for two weeks, and his return is currently set at four to six weeks, but that might be optimistic. Still, they came back and won it for Litsch. Travis Snider went deep for the second time in the game and gave the Jays an 8-6 win. After taking three of four from Minnesota, the Jays stomped the A's for two out of three over the weekend. It could have been a sweep, but Brandon League blew Friday's game in the eighth, allowing three runs for an 8-5 A's comeback.

Week's record: 5-2

Season record: 10-4

Injuries: RHP Jesse Litsch (15-day DL, forearm strain)

This week: Tue - Thu TEXAS; Fri - Sun @Chicago

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Yankees -- River Ave. Blues

The Yankees experienced quite the crazy week. Surprisingly, they came out on the winning end of it. It started in an inauspicious manner, a 15-5 blowout highlighted by a Nick Swisher relief appearance. The loser was Chien-Ming Wang, who would go on to get blown out yet again on Saturday against Cleveland. Formerly the top pitcher in the rotation, Wang now faces serious issues. Pitching coach Dave Eiland feels that Wang is doing everything right in bullpen sessions, but isn't bringing it out to the field with him. The stoic righty's next start, Friday in Boston, is currently in question.

After the 15-5 drubbing, the Yanks came back with two straight wins against the rival Rays, powered by a strong performance by A.J. Burnett in which he took a no-hitter into the seventh inning. The Rays mustered two runs that inning, tying the game, but the Yanks pulled ahead again in the eighth, and Derek Jeter iced the game with a three-run homer in the ninth to give Burnett his second win as a Yankee. Burnett also gave the Yanks innings on Sunday after another Chien-Ming Wang blowout on Saturday. He clearly didn't have all of his stuff, but he got through six and a third with only three earned runs. The Yankees came back to win the game.

And, of course, the Yanks got thumped in their home opener, 10-2. Not something we particularly want to talk about, but I thought the non-Yanks fans on other sites would appreciate it.

Week's record: 4-3

Season record: 7-6

Injuries: Xavier Nady (15-day DL; elbow ligament strain/tear)

This week: Mon - Wed OAKLAND; Fri - Sun @Boston

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Red Sox - Surviving Grady

A bizarre second week of action for the Sox, they’re beginning to become a bigger puzzle than the reason for Rob Schneider’s acting career. After getting taken behind the woodshed by Dallas Braden and the A’s, the Sox lost a nut-buster in 12 the next night which also sent Dice-K to the DL after one horrendous inning pitched. Then from the ashes came an unlikely hero in Tim Wakefield. He took a no-hitter into the eighth, finishing the game with an 8-2 win. The victory not only stopped an ugly skid of losses, it gave the bullpen a much-needed rest. A rest they would need for the 10-8 slugfest with the Orioles two nights later.

Then pitching became fashionable again over the weekend. With the exception of the proverbial “one bad inning” Josh Beckett shut the birds down on Saturday night as the offense continued to improve, finishing with a 6-4 win. On Sunday, Jon Lester pitched the way we hoped he would – and now need him to – blanking Baltimore through seven to scratch out a 2-1 win. With Lowrie on the DL and Julio Lugo hopefully lost in a time warp, Nick Green has inherited the shortstop position and handled it quite well so far. He’s batting .278 with 3 RBI in his 6 starts and playing steady defense.

RIP Mark Fidrych.

Week's record: 4-2

Season record: 6-6

Injuries: Daisuke Matsuzaka (15-day DL, shoulder); Jed Lowrie (15-day DL, wrist)

This week: Mon BALTIMORE; Tue - Wed MINNESOTA; Fri - Sun NEW YORK

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Tampa Bay Rays - Rays of Light

This certainly isn't how the Rays envisioned opening up defense of the American League Championship. But that's what happens when you pitch to an ERA over 5-and-a-quarter and you have an offense that only pads one stat - the strikeout. This week was supposed to be real special for the Rays; opening up at home against the Yankees and then inviting the White Sox in for an ALDS rematch. Instead, every single weakness on this team was exposed over the course of the week. The offense is desperately dependent on the longball right now. The Gabe-Every-Day right-field platoon has been anything but impressive. Troy Percival is still Troy Percival. You name it, it went wrong this week.

If a Rays fan is looking for a silver lining, B.J. Upton showed some of that all-world talent this week in making two Willie Mays-esque catches in center. Ben Zobrist is mashing like there's no tomorrow. Carlos Pena is on pace for about 70 home runs and has hit in 12 straight games. Joe Nelson has been a welcome addition to the bullpen. That doesn't wash the beer-that's-been-sitting-out-for-12-days taste out of a Rays' fan mouth, but at least it gives him hope that Monday's off-day will rejuvenate the team and allow it to get back to basics on the West Coast this week.

Week's record: 2-5

Season record: 5-8

Injuries: B.J. Upton (sore quad) - day-to-day, Shawn Riggans (shoulder tendonitis) - 15-day-DL

This week: Tue - Thur @Seattle; Fri - Sun @Oakland

AL East Roundup - Week 1

I'm participating with a few other bloggers in this AL East Roundup to keep everyone here up to date on our division rivals and let followers of other teams know what's going on with the Orioles. This will appear every Monday if we can keep it going. Without further ado...


New York Yankees - River Ave. Blues

The Yanks' fan base got into a tizzy on Monday and Wednesday after
dropping two games to the Baltimore Orioles. With such high
expectations, such a reaction was easily foreseeable, but that doesn't
make it any less ridiculous. In true Yankee fashion they bludgeoned
the Orioles on Thursday, defeated the Royals handily on Friday, and
went back to bludgeoning on Saturday. They scored 35 runs over the
first six games, which is remarkable because their best hitter is on
the DL and his replacement managed just one hit all week (and even
that came in the season opener).

After shaky opening starts by CC Sabathia and Chien-Ming Wang, the
pitching staff rebounded nicely. A.J. Burnett looked like his filthy
self on Thursday, striking out six and walking just one in 5.1 innings
of work. He threw a few too many pitches in the third and fourth,
hence the early hook. He was still throwing free and easy, though,
giving Yanks fans high hopes for future starts. Andy Pettite was
nothing but solid on Friday, his only run allowed coming on a
catchable ball that Nick Swisher lost in the sun. Sabathia pitched 7.2
scoreless on Saturday, proving that the rumors of his death were
greatly exaggerated.

Finally, Joba Chamberlain turned in an excellent six innings on
Sunday, needing just 88 pitches to get through while allowing one
earned run, though a Swisher error gave the Yanks just a one-run lead.
Joe Girardi tried to impersonate Tony LaRussa, using three relievers
in the eighth, even though Damaso Marte retired the first two hitters
with ease, leading to a three-run inning and a stolen Royals victory.

Week's record: 3-3

Season record: 3-3

Injuries: 1B Mark Teixeira - wrist - day to day

This week: Mon - Wed @ Tampa Bay; Thu - Sun CLEVELAND


Tampa Bay Rays - Rays of Light

The story of the week for the Rays starts and ends with Evan Longoria,
with a little bit more Evan Longoria sprinkled in during the middle
chapters. Though it's a little early to be talking about these things,
Evan is on pace to shatter the April record for dingers as he hit 5
home runs in the Rays' 6 games. He's already silencing anyone who
thinks that there's a "sophomore slump" about to happen. Along with
those 5 round trippers, Evan hit .481 with 10 RBI, 4 doubles, and 5
runs scored (that's a 1.185 slugging percentage, for those of you
keeping count).

All told, it was a rather pedestrian opening act for the rest of the
Rays. After looking pretty good in taking 2-out-of-3 from Boston to
start the week, the Rays then came out all sorts of flat against the
Orioles on Friday and Saturday before beating the tar out of the
orange-birds on Sunday. A 3-3 start to the season when going to Boston
and Baltimore isn't the worst of ways to start the season, but the
team has to be disappointed that couldn't head into the home opener
with a 4-2 mark instead.

This was all done without the services of centerfielder B.J. Upton,
who will be activated from the disabled list prior to Monday's night's
home opener against the Yankees. To make room for Upton, the Rays sent
outfielder Matt Joyce to Triple-A Durham. Joyce hit .100 (1-for-10)
with a home run and an RBI in 3 games for the Rays this week. In all
likelihood, he would be the first man recalled should another
outfielder go down with some kind of injury.

Week's record: 3-3

Season record: 3-3

Injuries: None

Next week: Mon - Wed NEW YORK; Thu - Sun CHICAGO


Toronto Blue Jays -- Drunk Jays Fans

Note: DJF is here for a one-week cameo. We'll have a different
Jays blogger next week.

The biggest news of the first week of the season for the Jays, other
than nearly forfeiting on Opening Day because of debris being thrown
onto the field by fans, was that they actually went out and won. After
an off-season of lowered expectations, following on the heels of a
season where Jays pitchers were arguably the best in the majors, but
the hitters simply couldn't score, the Jays' lineup actually looked
like the "best case scenario" that disappointingly didn't materialize
in 2008. And for the most part, the production was coming from outside
the 3 and 4 spots in the lineup, held down by Alex Rios and Vernon
Wells. Youngster Adam Lind led the way with an MLB-leading 12 RBIs,
and Aaron Hill, back after missing most of last season with
post-concussion syndrome, looks like his old self. Marco Scutaro
(.385/.485/.731 with 2 HR and 5 RBI) has also been swinging a hot bat.
The rotation held it's own as well, with strong outings from rookie
Ricky Romero, second-year man David Purcey, and naturally, a pair of
gems from Roy Halladay.

The Jays' main concern-- apart from the fact that the torrid hitting
certainly won't last, and that the young pitchers are going to suffer
through ups and downs-- has been for $10M closer BJ Ryan. Nearly a
full two years removed from Tommy John surgery, Ryan is still
struggling to find his command, and his fastball is down a couple
notches to the 88-89mph range-- which is up from earlier in the
spring, when he was throwing fastballs that would occasionally top out
at 84. Ryan blew a save against Detroit, though the Jays came back to
win that game, and entered in a non-save situation against Cleveland,
only to load the bases with two outs (two of them by walk), and then
watch Mark DeRosa hit a double that would have been a home run if not
for a stiff wind off Lake Erie, turning a comfortable 5-1 lead, into a
5-4 game with a runner on second in the bottom of the ninth. Jason
Frasor relieved Ryan to close out the game.

Week's record: 5-2

Season record: 5-2

Injuries: RHP Casey Janssen - shoulder - 15 day DL, out indefinitely.

Next week: Mon - Thu @ Minnesota; Fri - Sun OAKLAND


Boston Red Sox - Surviving Grady

Tough going out of the gate for the Sox, dropping 2 of 3 to the Rays
at Fenway to kick off the season, then hopping a flight to the left
coast where they dropped another 2 of 3 to the Angels. Hey, it's only
the first week, but a couple things have us concerned: After Josh
Beckett's stellar performance in the season opener, Jon Lester,
Daisuke Matsuzaka and Timmy Wakefield struggled. Brad Penny didn't
fare much better in his Sox debut against Anaheim, but was saved by
some timely offense. Speaking of hitting, the team's first full season
of Life After Manny may be tougher than we'd imagined; through the
first six games, the team is averaging just 3.4 runs per game, and
some of the big guns we're counting on -- Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz,
JD Drew and Mike Lowell -- are a wretched 10-for-65 combined.

On the bright side, Youk is tearing it up at .526, and Rocco Baldelli
has been a pleasant surprise thus far, legging out a key hit in
Saturday's game against Anaheim and flashing some pretty imrpessive
leather in the field. This week it's on to Oakland for three games,
then back home for Baltimore. Things should be getting better fast. Or
so I pray to the Gods of Baseball.

Week's record: Season record: 2-4

Injuries: None

This week: Mon - Wed @ Oakland; Fri - Sun BALTIMORE

Chinks in the Armor

The season kicks off early tomorrow morning as the Red Sox and A's square off in Japan.

Before the season starts, let's get an update on our division rivals.

Tampa Bay Rays

Along with staff ace Scott Kazmir and projected RF Rocco Baldelli, utility man Ben Zobrist is expected to start the year on the DL. Also, in an act of ultimate cheapness, Evan Longoria was reassigned to minor league camp.

Kazmir has a strained elbow and there is no timetable for his return. The staff (Shields, Garza, Sonnastine, Jackson, Hammel) hardly looks as promising with Kazmir out of the picture.

RF will be manned by old man Cliff Floyd who will be lucky to be a league average hitter before he gets injured and Eric Hinske had to take over.

With Longoria gone, third will be manned by the sorry Willy Aybar who didn't play at all last season and is a headcase to say the least. (Tampa shipped out Delmon Young and Elijah Dukes because of their personality flaws but at least they had talent! Aybar is a marginal major leaguer and a problem child...) Aybar us injured and so is Zobrist so your guess is as good as mine who will open the season at the hot corner.

Toronto Blue Jays

It was only a matter of time but even I didn't expect Scott Rolen to go down this fast. Marco Scutaro, a downgrade both offensively and defensively, will play third. Rolen is expected to be out at least a few of weeks.

The Jays great bullpen is showing some cracks as B. J. Ryan's comeback has hit some bumps in the road and their best reliever from 2007, Casey Janssen, is gone for the season.

A.J. Burnett is battling a broken fingernail on his throwing hand. Expect his struggles to continue.

New York Yankees

Andy Pettite is battling back spasms. That's a big deal for a team whose rotation is a bit thin after the number 2 hurler but other than this news it's situation normal for the Yanks.

Boston Red Sox

Schilling's down. Josh Beckett is battling injuries. Mike Timlin has an injury to his right ring finger.

It would be nice if Beckett's injury lingered...

How Baltimore Can Win The East: The Case FOR Baltimore

That's right. The case FOR Baltimore.

I've read too many articles, projections, previews and predictions that talk about what is going AGAINST the Orioles. Enough actually, that my dander is up, spurring me on to finally write this final installment.

Rally round O's fans! The eternal optimist will turn his head upward towards the rest of the division, glare defiantly, roll up his sleeves and lick his chops.

1. Outfield Production

First, forget about Nick Markakis. Forget that he is projected to steadily improve on his solid numbers from last season. I mean, just forget about that for a moment.

I have bemoaned the lack of offense at the centerfield and (especially) leftfield for the last two seasons. That, however, is about to change.

OPS of Oriole leftfielders from 2005-2007: .670, .681, .631

Let's assume that Luke Scott just comes in and posts the .855 OPS he had last year. Hell, let's just assume he posts his CHONE projection of .789...you see what I'm getting at? Scott is a huge upgrade from anything we've had in leftfield since B.J. Surhoff was a useful player. Nice upgrade at a position that sorely needed one.

OPS of Oriole centerfielders from 2005-2007: .668, .715, .713

Meet Adam Jones. We all love projections, don't we? Jones is projected to post an OPS over .800 by Bill James and ZIPS. That and good defense will go a long way towards improving the team overall.

Overall? The outfield looks to be the best Baltimore has fielded since 1999.

2. The Bullpen Can't Be Any Worse? Right?

I don't think so. In 2007, questionable personnel were put in bad positions and overworked early in the season by Sam Perlozzo. That changed under Dave Trembley and if not for a season ending injury to closer Chris Ray and lefty Brian Burres being pressed into starting duties (due to injuries to the staff) it is conceivable that Dave Trembley may have been able to keep the bleeding to a minimum after her took over.

The bullpen returns the two best performers from 2007 (Jamie Walker and Chad Bradford) adds another proven commodity in George Sherrill (even if he's not in a role he's proven at). Brian Burres (may) be back in the pen as a long man which is the role he's best suited for. The rest will be some mix of Dennis Sarfate, Greg Aquino, Randor Bierd, Rocky Cherry and Jon Leicester. Really, are any of these arms worse than Paul Shuey, Rob Bell, Kurt Birkins or Todd Williams. I say no.

Down on the farm Bob McCrory, James Hoey and others await as backup and Chris Ray may return late this summer.

The O's had a historically bad bullpen and still didn't lose 100 games in 2007. It will be difficult to be that bad again. For that reason alone, the pen looks better by default.

3. Rebounds

This is a minor factor to be sure but every little bit counts. Ramon Hernandez was not as bad as he looked last year. He will be better and indeed he is projected to be better. Aubrey Huff is projected to be somewhat better. Even Melvin Mora is projected to have a slight uptick by the Bill James projection (Although, just holding steady will be fine with me...)

Some minor improvements by some of the underperforming vets could squeeze out a win or three over the course of the season.

4. A Better Bench

This one's dicey because we really don't know who will be on that bench. But Guillermo Quiroz is a better bat off the bench than, say, Paul Bako. Scott Moore will be there and when he's playing Millar or Spanky will be on the bench. Freddie Bynum and Tike Redman will be nice pieces to play with.

All of this is dependant on the fact that Jay Gibbons doesn't return. I can't imagine he will but stranger things have happened.

5. A Decent Manager

For the first time since Davey Johnson left, we seem to have a manger who is inventive enough to explore his teams strengths to try and win. He took unorthodox measures in 2007 when shorthanded (batting Corey Patterson 2nd, Kevin Millar as a cleanup hitter) and he knows how to manage his bullpen and his bench. These are good qualities to manage a team that will have plenty of disadvantages out of the gate.

Trembley is used to being the underdog. Did anybody here think he would be able to remove that interim tag from his title when he took over for Sam Perlozzo last season. I sure didn't. Trembley's playing with house money and he's playing to win.

Conclusion

Do I really believe the O's can win the division? No. Do I believe they will be the AL doormat? No. Do I believe this will be a fun team to watch? Yes. Do I believe they can be competitive and flirt with .500? Yes.

Keep writing Baltimore off. I like it.

photo courtesy of the Baltimore Sun

2008 AL Predictions

Inspired by The Wayward O's series, I thought I'd weigh in with my predictions for the 2008 season. I won't be as detailed as Wayward O but I wanted to get them on the record.

AL East

Boston

New York

Toronto

Baltimore

Tampa Bay

I just don't see a lot changing here. Boston and New York will both be relying on young pitching this year but New York more so. Toronto probably doesn't have the lineup to make the move to second place but if the Yankees pitching staff suffers injuries, they could sneak in there. I don't think that the Orioles will be any worse and I'm the only man in America who doesn't see where this quantum leap in Tampa is going to come from, especially with Scott Kazmir injured and Rocco Baldelli out indefinitely.

AL Central

Detroit

Cleveland (WC)

Minnesota

Kansas City

Chicago White Sox

Detroit clobbers the AL with the best lineup in baseball. Cleveland takes a small step backwards but should still be able to secure the Al Wild Card. Minnesota (and Delmon Young) surprise and will be much better than anyone thinks. Kansas City improves a wee bit but Ozzie Guillen gets fired midseason as the White Sox implode.

AL West

Anaheim, LA, whatever

Seattle

Texas

Oakland

Angels youngsters get better and most balanced team in the league takes the West. Mariners make it interesting but run out of gas. Texas is rebuilding but is ahead of Oakland in that process with the crop of players they got in return for Mark Texiera. Billy Beane or not, the A's will have major growing pains this season.

Tomorrow, the NL.

How Baltimore Can Win The East '08: The Case Against The Red Sox

It's kind of tough to tear down a team that just won the World Series twice in the last four seasons but I'll do my best...

1. Schilling Hurts More Than They Want To Admit

Yes, he is going to be 41 at the beginning of the season but the loss of Curt Schilling from that rotation is going to hurt. Schilling had the second best ERA among Red Sox starters behind staff ace Josh Beckett and his loss leaves the rotation looking a bit thin. You don't believe me?

Dice K had a Mussina-esque 5.19 ERA after the All-Star break. Either he wore down or hitters started catching up with him. Or both.

Wakefield is a fine back of the rotation guy but is also getting old. He battled back problems last year and posted his worst ERA since 2004.

The loss of Schilling also puts a heavier load on young hurlers John Lester and Clay Bucholz. Guess how many starts these guys made last year? Only 14 combined. (Lester had 11, Clay only 3) They might turn out to be fine pitchers but you're asking largely unproven kids to provide at least 25 starts each on a contending team. Not really sure that's a great idea. It's no wonder the Sox signed Bartolo Colon. They're desperate for help.

2. Mike Lowell Falls to Earth

Like Jorge Posada, Mike Lowell had a career year while in his mid-30's. Do you think a guy with a .280 career batting average is going to hit .324 again? No way. He'll probably hit in the .280 range and hit 20 homers but he is not going to be powering the Sox offense the way he did last year.

3. Some Guys Are Just Plain Getting Old

Jason Varitek will continue to decline this season as he has for the past two. He'll be 36 this year and barring a big fluke will be lucky just to be average at the plate.

Manny Ramirez is one of the greatest hitters of this generation but he has never been one known for really taking care of himself. 2007 may have been the beginning of his decline years as he went from a feared hitter to being a good but ordinary slugger. This may sound crazy to say but it could be that Manny's days of clubbing 30+ homeruns are behind him.

4. The Ellsbury Enigma

Is Jacoby Ellsbury going to hit .350 and slug .500 this season? Hell no! I would expect something in the range of .290 while slugging something closer to .425 or so. Is that bad? Not at all. Is it significantly better than what you might get from Coco Crisp? Not really.

But this is what the Red Sox are facing. If Crisp doesn't win the starter's job in centerfield, he wants out of Boston. Do the Sox, World Series champs and 2008 contenders hand the job to a rookie and let the veteran go?

The Sox have to hope that Ellsbury delivers enough extra offense to offset Crisp's superior defense. Crisp has been one of the best in the AL during his career while Ellsbury really is not known for defense.

Either way, they will not be as strong in center ad they were last year.

5. Will Lugo and Drew bounceback?

Not only did Julio Lugo forget how to hit once he arrived at Fenway, his defense regressed as well. Did the big city pressure and contract mess with his head? The curse of Nomar? Whatever the case, look for Lugo to hit below .260 again. Maybe his fielding rebounds, maybe it doesn't.

History tells us that J.D. Drew should have a rebound of sorts this season. He tends to have a good season every other year and although he avoided major injury in 2007, you can't say that the Sox weren't disappointed by his paltry power numbers (.423 SLG and 11 homeruns, both career lows.) The fragile Drew will be 32 this season and may be breaking down early. Ironically, his career compares pretty favorably to Kirk Gibson (excepting Kirk Gibson prowess at steals). Guess at what age Gibson's body began to truly fail on him? That's right, age 32.

Conclusion

Let's be honest. The Red Sox have a lot of strengths. Their bullpen is outstanding, David Ortiz is still a fearsome slugger in his prime and they have the best young second baseman in the AL not named Cano.

However, age and injuries may catch up with them this year, as well as some unproven players in crucial roles in the rotation and in center.

They aren't going to run away and hide with the AL East title this year...

Next Up: The Case FOR Baltimore

How Baltimore Can Win The East '08: The Case Against the Yankees

The Yankees are no longer invincible. As far as I can tell, it gets worse in the Bronx before it gets better.

1. Like Last Year, the Pitching Staff Will Be a Problem

OK, Chien-Ming Wang appears to be a legitimate major league starter. But your ace? Outside of win totals (which vary greatly on run support) there is little difference between his 2007 performance and the performance of Baltimore's de facto ace Jeremy Guthrie. OK, that's a bit of a stretch but not a crazy comparison. Go look.

Andy Pettitte will be 36 this season and was a slightly better than average pitcher last season. He'll be average again (at best) and the Yankees will be thankful for it.

Mike Mussina is old and decrepit. He'll be lucky to post an ERA under 5.00 this season but the Yankees are leaning on him heavily and praying for a comeback season. Why?

Part of this is because of the kids projected to hold up the back end of the rotation. And they will be on strict innings limits according to Bob Klapisch of The Record (NorthJersey.com):

Consider the math. The Yankees have three rookie starters, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy, all on a strict innings limit this season. Chamberlain will be capped at 140 innings, Hughes at 160, Kennedy at 180-190. Assuming 45 or so of Chamberlain's innings are in the bullpen -- he'll start the season as the eighth-inning guardian -- that leaves a glaring hole in the equation.

That means they're counting on Mussina to pitch close to 200 innings this season, something he hasn't done since 2003. If he can't do it, that means someone like Kei Igawa's going to have to pick up the slack. Ouch.

The back of the rotation will be some combination of the kids listed above who may be great pitchers someday. But Yankee fans will no be forgiving if they struggle early and the Yankee fans and press have ruined the confidence of even veteran pitchers.

Lots of questions even if the rotation is healthy.

2. Jorge Posada Falls to Earth

After A-Rod, Jorge Posada was the best Yankee batter and by a huge margin. Do you think he's going to hit .338 again? He had never even hit .290 before last season! A great season but that season is over. The best you are going to see from him is .275 with 20 homeruns. And for a 36 year old catcher, that's a stretch. Unless your name is Carlton Fisk, offensive prowess for catchers does not last past 35.

3. Derek Jeter is the Worst Fielding Shortstop in Baseball

I love this one. In the short time this little blog has been in existence, I have beaten the drum about the Emporor's New Clothes that is Derek Jeter's defensive prowess. Finally, a study was done at Penn that named the three-time Gold Glove winner (Arrrgh! And Cal only got two? Arrrghh!) the worst defensive shortstop in the majors. Which is true and has been for 8 or 9 years now. Poor Jeter got his feelings hurt:

"Every [shortstop] doesn't stay in the same spot, everyone doesn't have the same pitching. Everyone doesn't have the same hitters running, it's impossible to do that."

Well Derek, the good ones choose the right spots to stand in. And everyone does have the same hitters running, over the course of a season. All the teams face essentially the same lineups over 162 games.

Pitching? I suppose if you had the same guys on staff for the last decade, that would be a valid argument. In 1999, roughly when you started to suck as a shortstop, the staff was Orlando Hernandez, Andy Pettitte, Roger Clemens, David Cone and Hideki Irabu. I know Clemens and Pettitte came back last year but come on. The Yankee staff has always had pretty high turnover.

Yankee Senior Advisor Gene Michael had this to say:

"Each team has a different staff. Derek doesn't really have a sinkerball pitching staff whereas other shortstops, you sit behind certain pitchers, you're going to get a lot of ground balls."

Gene have you met Mr. Wang? Gene meet Mr. Wang. He works for you. He does nothing but induce grounders about 60% of the time. Oh, and here's Mr. Pettitte. He works for you too. He induces grounders at a 50% rate over the last 4 years.

Ditto for Clemens.

Look the stats reflect what the eye reveals. Jeter can't go left. I don't care how hard you hustle. Diving for a ball that dribbles into left center doesn't make you a better fielder. It just means you fail with style.

Anyway, I should just write a long involved post about this some other time. But don't expect a 34 year old Jeter to be any kind of effective fielder in 2008.

4. Who's On First?

Would you want this guy manning first base for your team?









What a goober.

Easily the most annoying Yankee of the 21st century. And I can't talk about him without thinking of Peter Pan. (OK, Peter Pan was Sandy Duncan but my point still stands. Right?)

This is the leading candidate. Giambi can't play the field anymore. He's just a roided out shell of his former self.

Shelley Duncan. He had a nice year for a bench player but don't expect that to translate into success as a starter. There is nothing is his past to suggest he'll repeat the slugging clinic he put on last year.

And he has a girl's name...


5. Melky's the Man?

For all the fawning the New York press does over this guy, you would expect him to be better.

            OPS
Cabrera    .718
Patterson  .690
 

Considering Corey Patterson's 2007 was viewed as a disappointment it's hard to see how Cabrera's marginally better bat was seen as a breakthrough. Equalizing for Patterson's defense and baserunning, I'd say they're pretty much even. You might even give the edge to Patterson. Maybe.

This wouldn't be a huge deal for the Yankees until you look at Johnny Damon's struggles, the offensive hole at first, a declining Posada and a decaying DH in Giambi. This outfield is not going to be very formidable at the plate in 2008.

Conclusion

If things are dicey early in the year, this team could literally implode. Youngsters manning crucial positions in the lineup and the pitching staff, surrounded by fragile old veterans who may not deliver the results their reputations promise.

The Bronx is burning indeed.

Next up: The Boston Red Sox

How Baltimore Can Win The East '08: The Case Against the Blue Jays

This is a tough one because the Blue Jays will be solid but not spectacular overall. Outside of their bullpen, there's nothing great about this team but there is very little bad about them.. What's that? They just signed the left side of the Cardinals infield? Players that contributed to a losing club and a third place finish in the woeful NL Central. OK, let's start there shall we?


1. David Eckstein is Playing Shortstop

Sparkplug? My hairy butt.

David Eckstein is one of the worst free agent signings the Jays have made in years. He is a big drop-off defensively from John McDonald (most other teams wanted to sign him to play second, not short) and hardly an upgrade offensively. He hit .300 last year but it was an empty .300. No power and very little patience at the plate. And that was in a weaker league, in the weakest division in baseball.

Toronto leadoff hitters only got on base at a .321 clip last season. Eckstein will be an upgrade in that sense but since so much of his OBP depends on his batting average, he's going to struggle to post an OBP in the .340 range. He'll be facing tougher pitching in the AL East than in the NL Central.

With the majority of Toronto starters being groundball pitchers, they will be watching a lot of grounders get through for singles to left center. I wonder what that will do for team chemistry.


2. Their Best Offensive Threat Is 46.

Frank Thomas is old. He's going to the Hall of Fame someday but in 2007 he just looked decrepit.

The only other legitimate offensive threat on the team is Alex Rios. The Jays are counting on an old, injury prone veteran to make this offense go. A risky move at best.


3. No Legitimate Catchers

Rick Dempsey's nephew will be 37 and finally started to hit the wall last season. He will be backed up by Rob Barajas who is a good backup catcher but he'll be called upon to carry more load than he should this season.


4. Injury Prone At The Corners

The Jays traded away the injury-prone Troy Glaus for an even more injury prone Scott Rolen. Rolen will be better defensively but they will lose some offense at the Hot Corner. And that's if he stays healthy all year. If he goes down, so will any offensive threat from third base.

1B Lyle Overbay is coming back from having a bunch of screws in his hand. There is no legitimate backup for him if he struggles to a .241 average like he did last season.


5. Legitimate But Injury Prone Rotation

Halladay and Burnett are studs but neither has a great track record of staying healthy. Last year was Burnett's turn as he only started 25 games. Both these guys need to start 30+ games for Toronto to finish above .500. They have some talented kids at the back of the rotation but...
Here's a look at the ERA's and FIP's from the primary starters last season:

                ERA   FIP
Halladay       3.71  3.65
Burnett        3.75  4.44
McGowan        4.08  3.82
Marcum         4.13  5.05
Litsch         3.81  5.23
 
   

Halladay and McGowan put up numbers that are legit. They truly pitched as well as their ERAs suggest. The rest? Looks like they were aided by a) good luck and b) great infield defense.

(What's FIP? Start here.)

The Jays had the best infield defense in the AL last year (by RZR rating) which greatly helped their staff of groundballers. Are they going to repeat that performance with Eckstein at short in place of Jason McDonald? I think not. Look for the back half of the rotation to suffer while working around all those extra outs.

Conclusion

Outside of a great bullpen (which will get stronger with the return of B. J. Ryan) there are not a lot of sure things here. You can't hang your hat of a strong lineup, killer rotation or stellar defense. They will do all things fairly well...if everything goes absolutely right! That's a big "if" to deal with.

Next up: The New York Yankees

Random Notes from Yesterday's Games

Most reactions to the Opening Day loss to the Twins were tempered with the old "It's only the first game." line, which is an absolutely correct assessment. But Rick Maese at The Baltimore Sun has thrown that argument completely out the window and is taking a bit more pessimistic approach. And I quote:

"It's the Orioles, and if you're expecting things to go according to plan, well, you probably haven't been paying much attention lately."

Jesus Rick, are we Red Sox fans now? Haven't seen that much dreariness and despondency at the start of the season since I left New England.

Speaking of Boston, the Red Sox got whooped 7-1 out in Kansas City. Gil Meche beats Curt Schilling! How did this happen? Curt explains in his blog, 38 Pitches:

"When you are facing a guy like Gil certain things can make it easier or harder. He’ll walk some guys if you give your offense a chance. His stuff is so good that when offenses have to press against him, or their down and need to make something happen, he can eat you up."

The lesson: Don't get behind on Gil Meche. Who knew?

Looking at the rest of the AL East, Toronto wins it in the 10th in Detroit and the Yankees beat the devil Rays in the Bronx. Tampa made a nice run at it with their young hitters leading the way but they just don't have the arms to keep themselves in the game.

I was listening to a podcast of the Dan Patrick Show and Peter Gammons was optimistic about the O's. This is notable because I haven't heard anyone in the national media say anything nice about Baltimore this offseason. He thinks they are the most improved team in the East and that they are good enough for at least a 3rd place finish. Keith Olbermann actually picked them second! A nice change of pace.

I watched the rest of the O's game and saw that Bako had not one but two passed balls! Where's the D? Isn't this guy supposed to be a defensive specialist?

How Baltimore Can Win The East Part III: The Case Against the Yankees

OK, let's poke holes in the original Evil Empire:

1. The Rotation is in Shambles

Perhaps a bit overstated but...Chien Ming Wang is your number one starter? Are they high? Expect a dramatic fall back to Earth in Wang's results. Why? 76 Ks to 52 BBs. Wang needs to learn how to strike guys out or improve his control to Bob Tewksbury levels if he want to repeat last year's success. Wang keeps the ball in the park and induces lots of ground balls. If he had better defensive player in the middle infield, I would say that he would be OK but Cano and Jeter are not great defenders up the middle...

(A slight digression so I can rant about the bogosity of Jeter's most recent Gold Glove award. The eye tells you that while Jeter can make a nice play occasionally, his range is not great. The numbers have backed that up for most of his career. The first number I look at for a middle infielder is their Total Chances (TC). TC is Putouts+Assists+Errors, it's basically how many balls a player gets his glove on the ball. I mean, you can't make a play if you don't even get there right? Jeter is historically at the bottom of the league on TC. Last year, Jeter had 610 TC, exceeded by Miguel Tejada, Jhonny Peralta, Michael Young, Carlos Guillen and three other AL shortstops who played in at least 145 games. Juan Uribe had 604 TC in only 132 games! His fielding percentage was worse than 4 of those guys too! Bogus! So Wang has a gaping hole to his right rear named Derek. OK, resume original post...)

...I can't find anybody with Wang's type of game who succeeded for long in the Majors. If there are, that club's very restrictive Wang, so don't tell 'em you're Jewish. (edit: since starting this post, Wang has been sent to the DL. That would be disappointing if Carl Pavano wasn't the replacement starter...)

Mussina is old but I don't see any signs of him falling off yet. I don't think he will sport a 3.51 ERA again though and should slip closer to 4 this year as he did in 2004-2005.

Andy Pettite did not have a great year in Houston and is already having back problems. Carl Pavano? Who knows? Igawa? An unknown. This rotation doesn't look very intimidating to me. Roger Clemens is the only man who could save it. (A distinct possibility)

2. Posada is Old

I've got to come up with five of these? Jorge Posada will be 35 this year and although this is a bit of a rehash of Boston's situation, this is the age where catchers begin to break down and when they do, they lose it fast. Posada is a prime candidate for a severe dropoff at the plate this year.

3. Jeter is a Boob

OK, I'm out of ideas. The bullpen looks solid, the outfield could be one of the most dangerous offensive outfields in the AL and A-Rod should rebound nicely even if Jeter falls off a bit from last year. A healthy Robinson Cano will wear out AL pitching from the bottom of the order. The only weak spots could be first base and DH, a problem the Yanks deep pockets can address during the season.

Conclusion

The only issue with this team is age but they aren't that old. O's fans could hope for some key injuries or declines in production with a crew that has starters all over 30 this year, save Cano.

But the pitching has the potential to be abysmal. This is not the Yankee juggernaut of past years, not even the team they were last year. I still say the door is open for someone to catch the Yankees before they open up the cash box to right the ship at midseason.

So while the division may be tough, it is not an insurmountable task to catch these guys or maybe steal a wildcard from the rest of the AL.

Just don't ask me if it's possible once June rolls around...

How Baltimore Can Win The East Part 2: The Case Against Boston

Part 2 in my continued fan-boy, wishful thinking column. Why do I sound so negative? Because I have to come up with five plausible reasons Boston may falter this year. Well, here it goes...

1. Catcher Will Be a Problem

Jason Varitek had a poor year at the plate and a rough year behind it as well last year. Varitek will be 35 this year and the mid-30's are when catchers traditionally tend to start breaking down. It happened to Mike Lieberthal, it happened to Sandy Alomar, Jr., it happened to Darrin Fletcher. I mention these guys in particular because these are some of the most similar batters to Varitek through their age 34 seasons. Doug Mirabelli is a very good backup but is not a viable option if Varitek gets hurt. Josh Bard is no longer on deck as he was shipped out to San Diego last year. The catching position looks to be an offensive black hole for the first time since 1995.

2. The Rotation Is A Question Mark

Even though he has never been a starter at the major league level, Jonathan Papelbon is probably the surest thing the Sox have in their rotation. Schilling? He's very, very old. There's no telling if he finally starts to show his age on the mound or if he suffers serious injury. Ditto for Tim Wakefield. Dice-K could be fantastic but he could also be Hideki Irabu once the team goes north. Nobody knows. Josh Beckett was knocked around on his first trip through the American League. He may have won 16 but he had an ERA of 5.01 and a whopping 36 homeruns! Assuming this will be a dominant rotation is a huge assumption at this point. It could be an Achilles heel.

3. The Infield Offense is Lackluster

We all know the heart of the order (Ramirez, Ortiz, Drew) should be formidable but what about the rest? The infield doesn't look like they will strike fear into the hearts of opposing pitching staffs. Mike Lowell is a defensive wiz and a solid performer at the plate but at this point in his career, 20 HR is the best you can expect and he was only slightly above league average as an offensive player last year. Julio Lugo's offense fell off the table once he was traded west to the Dodger last year and he battled injuries the first part of the year. A .270-ish hitter with 12 HR isn't going to scare you. Dustin Pedroia is being handed the job at second base even though he sports a .191 BA in his 89 at-bats in the majors. And while his all-around game is just fine, Kevin Youkilis has never developed the power he was supposed to. He hit only 13 homers in 569 at-bats last season. Like Lowell, above average offensively but not much. Only Peroida looks to be a real liability here but no one else listed could be described as anything more than "solid".

4. It An Odd-Numbered Year for J.D. Drew

Everyone familiar with J.D. Drew knows he has been injury-prone throughout his career. But did you know that there is a pattern? In even-numbered years, he averaged 140 games played. In odd-numbered years, he averages 96 games played. If J.D. Drew doesn't miss significant time this year, he will be breaking an 8 year pattern. J.D., buddy, you're due.

5. No One Knows Who Will Close

Certainly not the fans or the writers in Boston. There is no established closer in the pen, no one has stepped up to take the lead this spring and there are some nagging injuries among some of the more seasoned veterans. Closer-by-committee looks great on paper but the actual humans in the bullpen like to have established roles. Thus far, there are none. Huge weakness for the Sox at this point.

Conclusion

Lots would have to go wrong for this to be a losing team but there's plenty of stumbling blocks waiting for this team, enough that they could be a mediocrity. All Baltimore should be looking for is an open door and Boston doesn't look like they will slam the door on anybody this year.

Next Up: The Yankees

How Baltimore Can Win the East Part 1: The Case Against Toronto

The odds are insurmountable they say. Even with improvement from the O's, the competition is just too stiff. But the opponents are not as formidable as they are made out to be.

Oh sure, if things go well for the other teams in the division (especially Boston and New York) it will be tough to compete even if everything goes right. But there are chinks in the armor that could bring the Evil Empires crashing to the ground.

So, this series is based on two premises:

1. Tampa Bay is not a factor. They have young talent to be envious of but they don't have a lot of it on the mound. Outside of Scott Kazmir, expect a mess of a pitching staff. The young hitters won't be able to bail them out. Devil Rays, I summarily dismiss you.

2. Baltimore gets appreciably better in several areas and avoids major injury. That means the young pitching develops well, some players have bounceback seasons and the free agents perform as advertised. While Baltimore has only one player who can be reasonably expected to hit 30 HR (Tejada) you can add several who are capable of exceeding 20 (Huff, Mora, Hernandez, Gibbons, Markakis). So the offense and pitching would have to be solid, not spectacular, for a run to be made.

Got it? Great. The first team to dissect is Toronto:

1. The Outfield Reverts to Form

Every principle player slated for the outfield had a career year (Reed Johnson, Alex Rios) or approached their career year (Vernon Wells) in 2006. Based on past performance, none of these guys can reasonably be expected to surpass these performances. I would find it highly unlikely that they match them as a unit. Expect some declines and assume that this unit will be worse (maybe way worse) this year.

2. Frank Thomas Breaks Down

Frank Thomas is a formidable hitter, even at 39. At least when he's healthy. He has played in 135 games or more only 3 times in the last 6 years. He's another year older, so do you bet the over or the under here? I'm betting the under. His replacement would likely be Greg Zaun most nights, a significant dropoff in power.

3. The Infield is Suspect

Lyle Overbay is a nice fielder at first but up until last year had a very Millar-like bat. Expect him to return to form this year. At second, the young slick-fielding Aaron Hill who'll hit for a decent average but has never hit for much power. At short, the hideously all-around bad player that is Royce Clayton. He can't hit his way out of a paper bag and the only boast he can make about his fielding is that he is better than Derek Jeter, which isn't saying a whole hell of a lot. Troy Glaus is a power threat at third, a hitter to be feared but strikes out more and walks less these days. You can pencil him in for 35+ homers but also an average in the .250's. He's another guy with a history of injuries and the Jays don't have a lot of depth to pick up the slack.

4. The Pitching is Suspect

The Jays have a stud and a half. Roy Halladay is the stud, A.J. Burnett is the half. Much like the O's and Erik Bedard, the Jays are screwed if Halladay doesn't start 32 games this year and he does have a well known history of inuries. If Burnett starts more than 20 games, I'll be shocked. By the way, he is still just a .500 pitcher for his career at the age of 30. Behind them? Gustavo Chacin, Tohmo Ohka and John Thompson. Anybody shaking in their boots when these guys take the mound? The bottom of the rotation could prove to be quite the disaster. Josh Towers will be the first one called in case of injury and I think we are all familiar with how little he brings to the table.

The one bright spot is the bullpen, anchored by B.J. Ryan and Justin Speier but beyond them, no one is the bullpen has proven themselves over multiple years.

5. Catcher is a weakness...

...defensively when Gregg Zaun is behind the plate, offensively when Jason Phillips is behind the plate. They may actually be worse off with Benji Molina gone.

Conclusion

Does this look like the 87 win team from last year or the losing teams from 2003-2004? John Gibbons may not survive the season. This is a team that needs everything to go right to even repeat last year's performance. How does 4th place look to you guys? Baltimore should have no problem overperforming this crew.

Next up: The Boston Red Sox