Base Hits: Freak Injury, Cleared Waivers and Prospect Talk

As you've heard by now, Brad Bergesen has injured his shoulder during the taping of a MASN commercial and will not be 100% ready at the start of Spring Training.

After reporting he would be 100% for Spring Training at the Sarasota FanFest, I grimaced as I watched him play in a charity tennis game. Now this. Has MASN ever heard of CGI? No more live action commercials! Hire a cartoonist!

As I've said before, injuries are not a control pitcher's friend. Their success comes from a repeatable delivery and any injury jeopardizes their ability to recreate that delivery again. I don't feel good about this.

Here's the link to the commercial. (TOH to Jay Trucker of the Examiner)

For Christ's sake...

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In (perhaps) related news, the Orioles have been linked to free agent lefty starter Jarrod Washburn. How does the Oriole blog-O-sphere feel about this? Go here to find out.

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Armando Gabino cleared waivers and was added to the Norfolk roster. It's another arm to consider for the bullpen.

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This is a bit old but it's a slow news day. Here's a link to a short interview with Josh Bell by Project Prospect.

While you're at it, check out this longer interview with Brandon Erbe.

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A couple of nuggets from the 2010 Bill James Handbook...

Jeremy Guthrie led the AL in "tough losses"* with 5.

The Baltimore Orioles are the second worst base running team in the AL with 57 total bases below average. They do poorly in every category except for stolen bases.

Bill James gives Nick Markakis an 11% chance to break the major league record of 793 career doubles. Brian Roberts has a 10% chance.




*A Tough Loss is defined as a loss in which the pitcher had a Game Score higher than 50. In other words, the pitcher pitched well enough to win.

Baseball Stats in Perspective - Offensive Stats

I indulge in baseball stats. While I don't consider this a purely statistical analysis site, I do my fair share of it and reference "advanced stats" on a regular basis.

But I get annoyed by my Sabermetric brethren from time to time as they introduce new stats and pronounce them the new standard. This doesn't work for me because while they may measure a snapshot of performance or add predictive value, there is typically no frame or reference. Specifically, historical reference. I recently joined Baseball Prospectus and while I enjoy the writing, they use a ton of proprietary stats that are not available to the general public, only their subscribers. There's no frame of reference among the average baseball fan so you are just talking to yourselves.

FanGraphs.com recently unveiled a new stat call wRC+ (Runs Created based on wOBA compared to league average). Many stat guys declared this as the new stat to use and that OPS+ was now irrelevant. This irritated me as I thought to myself, "But where's the frame of reference? What was Babe Ruth's career wRC+?"

But then I realized that I use stats on my posts here that many may not understand or have a reference for. So shame on me.

With that in mind, here's a quick tutorial for stats I regularly reference on the site, as well as links to pages that offer more detail and/or historical context.

The Slash Line

I often refer to a player's "line" is my posts. Brian Roberts' line for 2009 was .283/.356/.451. The slash line here signifies Batting Average/On-base Percentage/Slugging Percentage. It's a quick way to sum up a player's offensive production.

OPS

OPS is simply On-base Percentage plus Slugging Percentage. For reference, Babe Ruth has a career 1.164 OPS. Frank Robinson had a career .926 OPS. Nick Markakis has a career .838 OPS.

Career OPS leaders are here and Single Season OPS leaders are here.

OPS+

OPS+ lets you compare offensive output across different eras. Let's face it; a guy who hit .300 with 20 home runs in 1967 is far more impressive than a guy who did the same thing in 1997. OPS+ measures a player's OPS vs. the average OPS for the league that season. It helps to compare players across different eras.

Babe Ruth's career OPS+ is 207. Frank Robinson has a 154 career OPS+. Nick Markakis' career OPS+ is 119.

A more detailed explanation of OPS+ can be found here. Career OPS+ leaders are here and Single Season OPS leaders are here.

WAR

WAR is Wins Above Replacment and is a measure of how many "wins" a player can contribute above the average "replacement level" player in his league. This was recently explained very well in this ESPN article by Matt Klaasen and Dave Cameron of FranGraphs.com.

Babe Ruth has a career WAR of 172.0. Frank Robinson's is 107.1. Nick Markakis has a carrer WAR of 15.1.

Historical WAR totals can be found here.

ISO

ISO is isolated power, a stat that I love to use. ISO measures the "raw power" of a hitter as it separates the batting average component from the slugging percentage. It is basically the slugging percentage minus the batting average but the more exact calculation is:

Total Bases - Hits/At Bats

Babe Ruth had a carrer ISO of .348. Frank Robinson comes in at .243. Nick Markakis has a career ISO of .173.

More details on ISO are available here.

Career ISO leaders can be found here.

Later, we'll cover the pitching and defense. I hope this helps.

O.G. Orioles...This Ain't Pretty

Reading this article by Matthew Namee at The Hardball Times got me thinking. Namee hypothetically returns all MLB players to the original organizations they signed with and takes a look at the rosters. He only covered the teams that could field competent major league rosters so, of course, the Orioles were left out of the article. You can guess what comes next.

If you aren't eating anything, take a look at the 2008/2009 Baltimore Orioles 25 man roster consisting only of players originally signed by the club.

The Starting Lineup

C Matt Wieters
1B Jayson Werth
2B Brian Roberts
SS Augie Ojeda
3B Brandon Fahey
RF Nick Markakis
CF Willie Harris
LF Nolan Reimold
DH Gregg Zaun

Wieters would have been rushed to the bigs and along with Roberts and Markakis would be the bright spots in the lineup. Fahey would be forced to play third and former catching prospect (and current Phillies outfielder) Werth would be converted to firstbase.

I figured that the organization would rush Reimold to the majors in lieu of trotting out Alex Ochoa in left. Current Nationals centerfielder Harris would be back in black and orange. Ditto at DH for Rick Dempsey's nephew.

The Bench

C Eli Whiteside
Util Jerry Hairston
Util Mike Fontenot

Whiteside would be the only available option for a backup catcher. Eeesh. Hairston could be the fourth outfielder and Fontenot would be a capable infield backup.

The Rotation

SP Mike Mussina
SP Erik Bedard
SP Daniel Cabrera
SP John Maine
SP Garrett Olson

It's not a great rotation but, given good health, it's better than we have right now! Brian Matusz would still be waiting in the minors for a shot to crack this rotation too. John Maine would be competent in the AL but not great and Mussina would be wrapping up an illustrious Oriole career.

The Bullpen

RHP Jim Johnson
RHP Hayden Penn
LHP John Parrish
RHP Chris Britton
RHP Radhames Liz
RHP Jim Hoey
LHP Arthur Rhodes
RHP Chris Ray

Liz and Penn take the Albers\Johnson route to the bigs and are probably better for it. But overall, the pen is shaky outside of Johnson and Ray. Welcome back Arthur Rhodes!

In conclusion, it's just another example of the Oriole's poor drafting over the years. The inability to develop corner infielders and corner outfielders is especially glaring since those prosepcts are usually to easiest to find!

Also, only two players on this list were signed from outside of the U.S. (Cabrera and Liz). That will have to change if the Orioles hope to return to contention.

Tomorrow, a check in with some of those players that we hope will change that!

Base Hits: 4/15/2008

Is anybody else having as much fun as I am? I got to watch the Baltimore Orioles play the Blue Jays for 1st place in the AL east tonight. And they won. I keep saying it; enjoy it as long as it lasts.

13 hits and only four runs? Not good. Adam Jones looked great last night. So did Matt Albers. Will he force his way into the rotation?

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OK. Brian Burres data:

             AVG   OBP   SLG
1st PA in G   .256  .344  .421
2nd PA in G   .301  .400  .393
3rd+ PA in G  .340  .411  .490

See? First time through the order, he's fine. A nice swingman and long reliever. Nothing to be embarrassed about.

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Desert O of Weaver's Tantrum will be taking a hiatus from the Oriole blogging as he hikes from Georgia to Maine on the Appalachian Trail!

Good luck to Desert O on his journey, that is no easy undertaking. You can follow his progress on the trail at his other blog, right here.

Blackbird Rising will be keeping Weaver's Tantrum warm until Desert O's return.

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Welcome back Gabe Kapler! A look at Kapler's improbable success early this season over at FanGraphs.

I was stationed in Jacksonville when Gabe Kapler played for the AA Jacksonville Suns and my wife and I had a lot of fun watching those games. There were a few players on that team who ended up playing in the majors (Matt Anderson, Robert Fick, Dave Borkowski, Willis Roberts, Jose Macias) but only Francisco Cordero and Dave Roberts have gone on to have any careers of note. But I would have sworn that Gabe Kapler was going to be a star. Some Kapler stats from 1998 at the age of 22: 139 games, .322 AVG, 28 HR, 47 doubles, 146 RBI.

I've always pulled for Gabe and he's probably the only Red Sox player I was genuinely happy for when they won the World Series.

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Finally, a nice pull (again) for Anthony over at Oriole Post as he plays five questions with nobody special. Only Brooks Robinson!

Millar photo courtesy of Reuters