Base Hits: 1/23/2009

I've been meaning to get to the recent comments by Leo Mazzone...so here it is.

Leo Mazzone made these comments to the intensely annoying Atlanta Journal Constitution sports columnist Terrance Moore:


“Once I got there and saw how they operated compared to the Braves, I knew I made a mistake the first week of spring training,” he said, before chuckling and adding, “I said to myself, ‘You know what? I done messed up.’


“The lack of organization. The lack of discipline. The lack of overall professionalism. I was shocked, and I couldn’t believe it.”


A couple of observations:


1) He's probably got some very good points.
2) His best buddy, sad-sack #1, Sam Perlozzo, was running things at the time. Is this a swipe at Perlozzo as well as The Warehouse?
3) When his buddy Perlozzo was shown the door, did Leo take the opportunity to liberate himself from his predicament? On the contrary. He practically begged for his job:


"I want to go until I'm 62, and I hope the rest of the way it's in a Baltimore uniform," he said. "I mean this place, it's my home state and this is one of the greatest sports towns in the United States. All we have to do is start winning, and you'll never be able to get a ticket. These fans deserve that. They treat everybody very graciously."


4) When the Orioles showed Leo the door, they gutted the organization. Andy MacPhail cleaned house (by and large) fronm the minors on up to the GM office. His observations are probably less true now than in 2006.
5) Leo's giving his mea culpa to the fans of Atlanta and the Braves front office. He wants to come work for the Atlanta Braves again. And all in all, who can blame him? I don't. But remember: he kept cashing the Oriole checks last season and they made him a very wealthy man.


*****


The Orioles have signed Luke Scott to a one year deal worth $2.4 million for 2009.

Scott continued to struggle against left handed pitching last season but still managed to post an OPS of .807 coming from one of the weakest divisions in baseball to the strongest division in baseball. The man we traded him for, Miguel Tejada, only posted a .729 OPS for the Astros last season. Tejada stands to make $13 million next season. Which player would you rather have going into 2009?

Even if that trade had been Scott for Tejada straight up, the Orioles made out like bandits. And we got four other players back!

*****

Paul Sullivan has done a very thorough and entertaining write-up on the Orioles' best home-grown players as well as their best acquired players, put them on opposing teams and imagines who might win head-to-head. If Sullivan isn't a die-hard Orioles fan, he should change his middle name to Rain Man to be able to pull so many details about the various Oriole players he profiles.

*****

Oriole Spring Training Update: The drama continues. Lee County now wants the money earmarked for Sarasota to lure an MLB team for Spring Training (and they have failed in their pursuit of the Orioles) so they can use it to lure the Baltimore Orioles to City of Palms Park in Ft. Myers. Officials in Lee County feel that they are 80 percent done with the Orioles deal and want to lay their hands on any money they can find.

According to this editorial, the negotiations with Peter Angelos for the O's to takeover the old Dodgertown facility were no picnic...

*****

ESPN has a chat with Matt Wieters posted if you want to get to know the future Orioles star. One excerpt:

Bob (Baltimore, MD): What do you think of playing in Camden Yards? Can you hit the warehouse?

Matt Wieters: (4:08 PM ET ) I don't know about that, but I'm definitely looking forward to playing there. It's not going to have all the bells and whistles of the newest parks, but it's beautiful and will be around for a long time.

Doesn't have all the bells and whistles of the newest parks? How old do I feel now? I still think of OPACY as a "new" park. This kid thinks it's Tiger Stadium.

Oh , and he'll have his crabcake broiled, not fried.

*****

Speaking of ESPN and prospects, Keith Law has ranked the Oriole farm system as the 10th best in baseball. I can't remember the last time the O's farm system was top ten in anything positive.

And he's not alone. Baseball America has them ranked 10th as well.

On a related note, Law names Matt Wieters the top prospect in all of baseball and is exceedingly glowing in his praise. Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta also made the list.

The Crystal Ball '08: Daniel Cabrera

Before I start this post, let me just admit that I'm a sucker.

I'm deluded and unrealistic. I am overcome by wishful thinking. I am looking through rose colored glasses and I am an overly optimistic fool.

When it comes to Daniel Cabrera.

Before last season, Cabrera's strong finish in 2006 and the prospect of getting a full Spring Training with Leo Mazzone had me positively upbeat about his prospects for 2007.

While there were some good things about Cabrera's season, it was (obviously) poor overall. He allowed a career high (by far) 24 homeruns, his strikeout rate dropped, he posted a 5.55 ERA and he lost 18 games.

The bright side? He posted the lowest walk rate of his career (4.5/9 IP, a huge improvement over the 6.7 he posted in 2006), topped 200 innings pitched and struck out a career high 166 batters.

The real regression for Cabrera was all those homeruns he gave up. One of his strengths over his perplexing career is that he was at least able to keep the ball in the park. It's what has helped him survive all those walks. Last year he gave up homers at a rate that was 40% higher than his career average.

According to Hit Tracker, Cabrera gave up 8 homers that had "just enough" to get out of the park and two of those were "lucky" homers (homeruns that were aided so much by the weather that they would not have been out of the park in neutral conditions). You can't take all those homers away but it is reasonable to assume that if things had gone as they normally would that he probably would've given up somewhere in the neighborhood of 19 homers instead of 24 over 34 starts. Much more respectable.

Did you know that Cabrera threw his fastball 75% of the time last season? I thought he had utilized his slider much more than that. Can you believe the guy has gotten this far into his career with basically a fastball and no real secondary pitch? That how good that fastball is. According to Roch Kubatko, Cabrera is throwing his changeup a lot in the Dominican Winter League this offseason. This is good news considering he only threw it about 2% of the time in 2007. Does this signal a change in Cabrera's pitching philosophy? If he can mix in his slider and a passable changeup this year, he could be unstoppable.

And this may be my undying optimism talking again but I really think Cabrera just had an off year in 2007. He wasn't great to begin with and he looked really bad during that down year. It happens to all pitchers but looked really bad on Cabrera.

There are only two possibilities for Daniel Cabrera this season: he will either improve as a starter or will end up in the bullpen, trying to reinvent himself as a closer. He will probably break my heart but I think he will make strides, maybe big strides as a starter. I'm thinking he tops 200 IP, posts a 4.50 ERA, racks up 180 strikeouts and cuts down on the longballs.

Yes, I am crazy. And a sucker.

Keys To The Season Revisited: Final

1. The O's lower their ERA by a full run this season



The team ERA last year was 5.35 so the target was 4.35. While that looked attainable for most of the year, the team finished at 5.19 and Leo Mazzone got fired. The pitching staff still has a long, long way to go and improvement was going to be the biggest key to a winning 2007. Instead, it imploded and the Baltimore Orioles lost nearly 100 games.



2. Markakis hits 25



Markakis only hit 23 but 25 was only a quick reference to imporved slugging for the young rightfielder. Markakis hit 43 doubles in addition to leading the team in homers and slugged near .500 (.485). Mission accomplished, Nick has arrived as the best all-around hitter on the team.



3. Increased production from LF



Orioles leftfielders OPS'ed .631 in 2007...down from the historically bad number of .681 set in 2006. Centerfield (mainly Corey Patterson) production regressed as well. Bad stuff in the outfield if you're not named Markakis. Putrid.



4. Melvin Mora circa 2004....or at least 2005



OK, 2004 was right out the window. And so was 2005. Although he wasn't as bad as as he was in 2006, he wasn't much better in 2007. Outside of much improved glovework at the hot corner, Melvin brought little to the table in 2007. Failed.



5. Health



Ramon Hernandez was played injured most of the year. Miguel Tejada and Melvin Mora went down for awhile. Bedard and Gutherie missed significant time and Kris Benson, Adam Loewen and Jaret Wright never got started. No dice.



1 out of 5 equals 69 wins.

Tim McCarver is a Douchebag...

...sorry, just had to get it out of my system.

Just saw Kevin Millar throw out the first pitch in Boston and give Boston's starting lineup. There's my Baltimore tie-in for the ALCS.

OK, so who had Leo Mazzone getting fired and Terry Crowley keeping his job?

First, I love the fact that Dave Trembley is cleaning house. It certainly appears that the club has given him great sway in choosing his staff (even some people in the minor league organization) and the firing of Mazzone bears that out. Statistically speaking, as I posted at the end of September, the pitching staff under Mazzone has actually regressed:



Baltimore Orioles' ERA+ in 2004 and 2005: 101 and 106 respectively
Baltimore Orioles' ERA+ in 2006 and 2007: 84 and 88 respectively

Was it all his fault? No. The material was very weak to begin with but Mazzone had issues helping out bullpen pitchers in Atlanta too. Maybe Trembley decided they needed someone a bit more well-rounded?

Jim Duquette is gone now and Mike Flanagan's role will, it seems, be greatly reduced if he remains in the organization.

First base coach Sam Treijas resigned and bench coach Tom Trebelhorn was fired.

But against all odds, Terry Crowley remains! Evidently, Nick Markakis speaks highly of him. You can't get a better endorsement in Baltimore than that. Personally, I find the role of a major league hitting coach pretty overrated. Once you get to majors, a player who can hit already knows how to hit. The hitting coach with the big club isn't goin to do much but help marginal hitters get better. Corey Patterson got appreciably better once he showed up but obviously the hitters in general did not under Crowley's tutelage. I guess we'll see.

I love the fact that the Orioles are getting infused with new blood. God knows the old guard wasn't doing much to promote success in the organization.

Picking Up The Pieces

It's been real busy at work these last two weeks and quite frankly, I wasn't seeing much worth writing about on the field so apologies for the lack of posts this month. With only four games to go, it's time to start sifting through the wreckage so I'll start with some stats.

I stated at the beginning of the month that some Oriole hitter would have to go on a tear to reach 20 homers this year and wouldn't you know that Nick Markakis did it. He hit 6 in August and has continued that pace with 6 more in September. He now sits at 22 homeruns, not to shabby for a 23 year old rightfielder.

Nick also has accumulated 110 RBI so far. Quick, name last Oriole who drove in 110 RBI in a season by the age of 23? Give up? Well, there was no last one. No Oriole had done that before Markakis (Cal drove in 102 during his age 22 season). So hats of to Nick for a record-breaking season.

+++++

Does anybody realize how long it's been since we had a good regular leftfielder? The last guy who manned that position well was B.J. Surhoff! More on leftfield later...

+++++

Brian Roberts is quickly setting the standard for Oriole secondbasemen for years to come. If he can manage two more doubles this year he will own the top three spots for 2B by a secondbagger in Oriole history. If he can steal two more bases, he will join Roberto Alomar as the only two secondbasemen in history to hit 40+ doubles and steal 50+ bases. Enjoy him folks, he's a special player.

+++++

Baltimore Orioles' ERA+ in 2004 and 2005: 101 and 106 respectively
Baltimore Orioles' ERA+ in 2006 and 2007: 84 and 88 respectively

I know he hasn't had much to work with but the Oriole staff has actually gotten statistically worse since Leo Mazzone's arrival.

+++++

Forget the wins. There are only three Oriole pitchers who have come on the scene in their rookie year with such positive results: Mike Boddicker, Mike Mussina and *mumble*rodrigo lopez*mumble*. Well, two outta three ain't bad...

5 Keys To The Season Revisited: July

OK, the second half has officially begun. let's see if the O's were able to meet any of their preseason goal, arbitrarily assigned by Yours Truly.

1. The O's lower their ERA by a full run this season.

Team ERA as of today: 4.46. The target: 4.35. Leo Mazzone has done wonders patching together a starting rotation at this point but even some of those smoke and mirrors are wearing off. If not for the enormous bullpen struggles, Baltimore might be exceeding this goal but as it is, they haven't improved enough to contend, even before calculating in the woeful offense.

2. Markakis hits 25.

He's only 23. He's only 23. He's only 23....

I have to keep telling myself that. Nick's having a fine year for a player of his experience but it's easy to get a bit impatient when you see the talent he flashes. He's "only" slugging .435 while I was hoping for something north of .450 and he's only on pace for 16 HR on a team that could sorely use more power. His average, slugging and on-base percentage are all down from last year but I keep telling myself....He's only 23. He's only 23. He's only 23...

3. Increased production from LF

Our leftfielders are OPSing .640, hitting .248 with 2 homeruns. It's worse than last year and I didn't think that was possible.

How bad is it? We would get the same production if we put Jerry Hairston, Jr. out there full time! Or Howie Clark. Or Abraham Nunez.

The CF position is even worse (OPS of .627). Corey Patterson needs to go and since he's already under contract, put Jay Payton in center.

Again, outside of Markakis, the outfield is an offensive black hole.

4. Melvin Mora circa 2004....or at least 2005.

Mora has been better than last year (especially in power production) but well short of his 2005 numbers. In fact, his OPS is almost exactly in the middle of his 2005 and 2006 numbers. These aren't bad numbers but they aren't the numbers we would expect from Mora. At 35, this is probably what we can expect from him for the rest of the contract.

5. Health

We haven't had it. Case closed.

So at this point in the season, none of these goals that the O's could have reasonably hit, have been met.

Sigh.

Base Hits: 6/26/2007

It's rough to be an Oriole fan these days but according to The Hardball Times, Baltimore isn't even close to being the worst team in the league. Small consolation but it could be worse...

The New York papers are filled with stories like this one, questioning Joe Torre and calling for his ouster after last night's 3-2 O's win. It's nice to be on the other side of one of these losses and I'm loving watching Yankee fans try to eat one of their own.

It looks like Leo Mazzone will be sticking around, at least for now, which is a good thing. The only reservation I had about firing Perlozzo was the potential loss of Leo. His work with the pitching staff (even with the struggles of some bullpen personnel) has been enormously successful.

The usually completely insipid Amber Theoharis writes a decent enough column in Press Box this month. (I give Nestor a lot of crap about inane, misinformed rantings but as far as the inane and misinformed, Amber gives him a run for his money...) I think Alyssa Milano writes better.

On the other Hand, I am really finding myself enjoying Phil Jackman's Press Box column called...well, On The Other Hand. Good stuff.

I have posted WPA graphs before and The Hardball Times have assessed some of the biggest hits of the year in terms of WPA. Jay Payton has the biggest hit of the year for Baltimore this far....so stop pinch hitting for him in the 9th!