A Little Homer Analysis

Just for fun, a little home run analysis of the Orioles for the season thus far using some data from HitTrackerOnline.com

First, just the raw home run leaders for the O's in 2008:

           HR

Huff       19

Scott      17

Markakis   15

Mora       15

Millar     12


 

Going into September of last season, it didn't look like any Oriole batter was going to hit 20 homers (and without a power surge by Markakis in September, no one would have...). Now, we have 4 players already at 15. Low standards to be sure but it's an improvement.

So, the longest home runs (so far) by Standard Distance:

           Distance

Markakis    447 ft

Quiroz      443 ft

Scott       442 ft

Huff        433 ft

Huff        430 ft

 

Now the leaders in True Distance. I won't go into great detail on all of the definitions here so here's the Hit Tracker glossary. Basically, it's the distance a home run would have travelled if it had continued, uninterrrupted, to field level.

          Distance

Scott      444 ft

Scott      421 ft

Markakis   421 ft

Mora       421 ft

Scott      421 ft


 

Look at Luke Scott! A lot of raw power coming out of leftfield. But wait, there's more. The most No Doubt homers by an Oriole:

          No Doubts

Scott        6

Huff         3

Markakis     1

Mora         1

Millar       1

 

Scott has a ton of monster shots. More than double the next guy and no one else has more than 1! Scott is a flawed player but I am a big fan of having at least one guy who can just crush the ball way over the outfield wall. The Orioles haven't had a guy with such raw power since Albert Belle.

Now the Just Enoughs:

          Just Enoughs
Markakis       8
Hernandez      6
Huff           6
Mora           5
Millar         4
 

It's not really a surprise that Markakis leads this list. He does not have a classic home run swing; he's a line drive hitter with power. Since one of the qualifiactions for "Just Enoughs" is "the ball must clear the wall by less than 10 vertical feet", I am almost surprised he doesn't have more!

As hard as Ramon Hernandez is hitting the ball, he ssem sto be getting a little lucky with his homerun totals.

Speaking of luck, the leaders in Lucky Homers (affected by wind, temp, etc)

           Lucky Homers
Hernandez       6
Markakis        4
Huff            4
Scott           2
Payton          2
 

More than half of Hernandez's homers have been classified as "lucky". Not a good trend. Markakis is here again due to his line drive swing. Sometimes his homers are just inches away from being doubles...and vice versa.

Finally, the leaders in Average Standars Distance or as Hit Tracker calls it, The Golden Sledgehammer:

             Avg. Std. Distance
Huff              397.2 ft
Scott             395.4 ft
Mora              391.6 ft
Markakis          388.1 ft
Millar            371.3 ft
 

Aubrey Huff in an upset! Huff just edges out Luke Scott by less than 2 ft on average. I was kind of surprised to see Melvin Mora come in third though.

Just a footnote: Adam Jones has only hit 6 homers but only 1 of them was classified as "Just Enough". Our centerfielder also has some nice raw power if he can harness it. He is The Truth!

Base Hits: 7/22/2008

Just to catch up on a few items here...


First, I am bummed that Freddie Bynum is no longer a Baltimore Oriole. Especially to make room for a player the caliber of Juan Castro.


The stathead side of me knows that Bynum is not helping the cause at all. The rabid baseball fan in me says that one day, if he just gets a chance, he just might be a good player.


Dempsey's Army bids Bynum a fond farewell and wishes him the best of luck.


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Speaking of good luck, Jay Gibbons is reportedly close to signing a minor league deal with the Milwaukee Brewers.


First, I wish Gibbons good luck. I always thought he was a good guy. Second, if this is true Gibbons is incredibly lucky. I thought he'd have to hit better than .280 in independant baseball to get a sniff from a major league club.


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More good luck wishes go out to Adam Loewen who will be abandoning his career as a pitcher and pick up a bat.


Very sad to see Loewen's career end up like this. I know that he may come back as a good hitter since scouts were split on wether he was a hitting or pitching prospect coming out of college.


But there's a reason a story like Rick Ankiel is a story. It rarely happens. Hell, even a failed hitter like Brooks Kieschnick becoming a modestly successful relief pitcher was a novelty.


I hope he comes back but realistically, his big league career is over.


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I will take a split with the Tigers coming out of the All-Star break any day...


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You know, everyone talks about the Orioles' poor 1-15 ecord on Sundays but what about their great 10-4 record on Tuesdays? Do you think Shawn Marcum is shaking in his boots?


You also don't want to face the Orioles on Fridays (11-4), Saturdays (10-6) or Mondays (5-2). Maybe the O's could start a TGIF promotion for Fridays?

Pre-Season Thoughts in Review: Boston Red Sox

Another look back on my thoughts about our AL East opponents. Finally, the Red Sox

1. Schilling Hurts More Than They Want To Admit

I was pretty much wrong on this one. Beckett has pitched well, if not like a Cy Young candidate. Jon Lester has taken a big step forward at age 24. Dice K has been dominant and Tim Wakefield is having one of his best years ever. The only letdown has been Clay Buchholz.

Add all this to the good bullpen performance, they have the staff to contend. They are not really missing Schilling at all…

2. Mike Lowell Falls to Earth

Yeah, this was easy. He obviously wasn’t going to hit .324 again but he’s still having a pretty good season. He didn’t fall far enough to hurt…

3. Some Guys Are Just Plain Getting Old

After a couple of down seasons, Jason Varitek has finally fallen off the table. David Ortiz is banged up. Manny Ramirez has seen a small drop-off but he’s still damn good. A mixed bag on this one but the kids have picked up all the slack.

4. The Ellsbury Enigma

Is Jacoby Ellsbury going to hit .350 and slug .500 this season? Hell no! I would expect something in the range of .290 while slugging something closer to .425 or so.

Ellbury has not even lived up the the reduced expectations I had for him. The pluses are that he has already stolen 35 bases and his defense in center has been better than previously advertised.

He does enough but is only posting an 82 OPS+…exactly the same as the much-maligned Coco Crisp.

5. Will Lugo and Drew bounceback?

Lugo has not. Drew has.

I was hoping against hope that Drew would follow the Kirk Gibson career trajectory and start to breakdown in his early 30’s but history shows that Drew has a good year every other season.

Conclusion

Many of the problems I highlighted have come to fruition but not to the extent I thought. And when they did, the weaknesses have been masked by unexpected success in other areas.

They are a flawed team but they are the best equipped to win the AL East at this point.

Pre-Season Thoughts in Review: Tampa Bay Rays

Another look back at my preseason predictions. This time, the Rays.

1. The Rotation Is a Question Mark After Kazmir

I was dead wrong in this assessment. Shields has improved on 2007 and Matt Garza took a big step forward in his game. It has made them (Kazmire-Shields-Garza) arguably the best starting three in the game. How about the 4th and 5th spots? More on that later.

2. Carl Crawford...and Then What?

Crawford is a star player but he's just about the only sure thing in the lineup. And even he is not the kind of hitter that can carry a team.

This was true.

Rocco Baldelli is injury prone.

That was true.

Carlos Pena came out of nowhere to post MVP type numbers in 2007. Is he really going to repeat that performance?

Pena has done little this season when he isn’t facing Jamie Walker. This is true.

This lineup could score a lot of runs but they're going to have to count on a lot of youngsters make giant strides to do so.

That wasn’t completely true but if not for Evan Longoria this lineup would be severely underperforming. They are winning in spite of their bats. More on that later…

3. The Bullpen Stinks

The Rays bullpen was the worst in baseball last season (yes, even worse than the O’s) but has done a Baltimore style turnaround this season to post the 9th lowest ERA in the majors. (Baltimore is currently 8th…). Dead wrong on this assertion as well.

4. They Can't Catch The Ball

Regardless of the metric you use, the Rays are among the best defenses in baseball. The addition of Lonoria at third, Jason Bartlett at short and the conversion of Aki Iwamora from third to second has stabilized the infiled and the continued improvement of B.J. Upton in center has helped immensely. Again, dead wrong.

5. The Key Contributors on Offense...Will Be Kids

This was true and some contributors have struggled in the first half. But Longoria has not. The offense has been good enough to contend.

Conclusion

Tampa Bay was a chic pick to take a big step forward this season and have been quite a surprise. But the fact that they are doing it with pitching and defense is the real shock. It was supposed to be the bats of Carlos Pena, Crawford, Upton and Longoria that were to lead Tampa to respectability but instead it’s been the glove and the arms. Even bottom of the rotation guys like Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine are benefiting from the improved glovework by the Rays.

Will the pitching hold? Maybe. Will the bats come around? If they do, they will be a juggernaut.

I was dead wrong about these Rays…

"We Win, You Win 2"

Just a quick note to highlight a promotion just announced by the Baltimore Orioles. the summary:

In an effort to snap their 14-game Sunday losing streak, the Orioles have announced a sequel to the popular “We Win, You Win” promotion from July 6. The “We Win, You Win 2” promotion will raise the stakes, as all fans in attendance at the 1:35 p.m. game on Sunday, July 20 against the Detroit Tigers will receive two complimentary tickets in the same seating category to any future non-prime game, if the Orioles win.

This is great on many levels:

1) The O's are being open and honest about the team's abysmal record on Sundays. It may not seem like much but in the past negative traits of the team were glossed over, not copped to.
2) They are turning a negative into a positive.
3) It is designed to reward fan support and potentially boost Sunday attendance.

It's a good idea and shows that the Oriole public relations team is continuing to look for new ways to reach out to the fans.

Full details of the promotion can be seen here.

Pre-Season Thoughts in Review: New York Yankees

Revisiting (and revising) some of my preseason looks at AL East teams. Now, another look at this February post about the Yankees.

1. Like Last Year, the Pitching Staff Will Be a Problem

And it has been.

Andy Pettite has been league average, as I expected. Wang was good but now is injured. Phillip Hughes and Ian Kennedy have already flamed out.

The wild cards here have been Joba Chamberlain and Mike Mussina. I thought Chamberlain would be a good starter but I didn't expect him in the rotation this soon. Mussina has recaptured some skills and is having a hell of a last hurrah in pinstripes. If not for these two, the staff would be tryuly abysmal.

The question will be if these two can continue their good performances. Chamberlain looks strong and I expect him to pitch well in the second half. Mussina has tired late in the season the last couple of years. Moose looks more likely to suffer a setback.

2. Jorge Posada Falls to Earth

Well, he has but who really thought he would hit .338 again?

Since his injury, Posada has hit at rates that you would expect Posada to hit at but time will tell if his 36 year old body continues to betray him this season (Look at Jason Varitek for a cautionary tale...)

3. Derek Jeter is the Worst Fielding Shortstop in Baseball

As much as it pains me to say this, Jeter is having one of the best fielding seasons by an AL shortstop in 2008.

By nearly every measure, he is one of the top fielders in the league. His errors are up but they're not at crazy levels. The only thing I could say is that the competition among AL shortstops is light. Outside of Michael Young and Orlando Cabrera, there are no regular AL shortstops with stellar defensive reps.

Of course, he's hitting more like David Eckstein than his normal self...so it balances out I suppose.

4. Who's On First?

I ripped the Yanks for their personnel at firstbase but Jason Giambi has been better and played more games there than I thought. They're going to be fine at first for now.

5. Melky's the Man?

Before the season, I compared Melky to Corey Patterson and found him only slightly better at the plate. So far, Corey Patterson is looking like a better option.

Melky's OPS number for the last three seasons, including his partial 2008, are .751, .718 and .690. He's regressing. He's an easy out.

Conclusion

I was somewhat correct on the rotation. Only Chamberlain has panned out among the youngsters and outside of the surprising Mussina, it has been decimated by injury and ineptitude. However, the bullpen, outside of LaTroy Hawkins, has been stellar and bailed the Yanks out a lot.

The offense has seen unexpected very good performances from Giambi and Johnny Damon (when healthy) and great numbers from A-Rod (as expected). But the rest of the offense has been lackluster at best. The Orioles are scoring more runs!

Without some continued luck with their pitching staff, the O's could still catch these guys and the Blue Jays before year's end...

Pre-season Thoughts in Review - Toronto Blue Jays

It's the All-Star break so just a look back at some of my pre-season predictions. I looked at potential problems with the Toronto Blue Jays...

1. David Eckstein is Playing Shortstop

He is the worst fielding shortstop in the AL and is a poor hitter to boot. Hitting .269. Horrible free agent signing.

2. Their Best Offensive Threat Is 46

And they cut him. Good job. Only Seattle has a more pitiful offense.

3. No Legitimate Catchers

Rick Dempsey's Nephew and Rod Barajas have been an adequate pair at catcher. Better than expected and a small bright spot in their offense. Kind of.

4. Injury Prone At The Corners

This has not come to pass but Scott Rolen has missed a few games. Lyle Overbay has been a virtual ironman at first but is only hitting .269 with 6 homers.

5. Legitimate But Injury Prone Rotation

Dustin McGowan and Shaun Marcum are on the DL. Roy Halladay is Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett has been up and down. Jesse Litsch is regressing toward his FIP form last year. Burnett may now be on the trading block. The bullpen is in good shape but outside of Halladay, there's not much in the rotation for the second half.


Only some bizarre wins and Roy Halladay kept the Blue Jays out of the cellar at the All-Star break. A puny offense and a banged up rotation won't get you through the dog days of summer. I expect them to sink lower in the short term and if they unload Burnett, they could finish below the Orioles in the AL East.

Base Hits: 7/14/2008

Finally, I am back in town. I will be home through the rest of the regular season, so I hope to get back to posting more regularly.

If the Orioles were going to start losing in miserable and painful ways, at least I was in southwest Florida where:

A) I didn't have any time (or access) to watch the games and

B) Beaches, fresh seafood and a general laid back atmosphere made me not care as much.

The bright side to this recent losing streak is that now The Warehouse can look to unload some of these veterans without much objection from Peter Angleos and/or the fans. There is (at the moment) no winning team to break up!

This is not to say that this team as currently constructed could not be a winning team. The Baseball Gods giveth and they taketh away. Baltimore has won a lot of close games this season and the pendulum does seem to swinging the other way at this point. But .500 should not be the ultimate goal here. The eye still needs to be toward the future with this team.

Who gets traded?

Aubrey Huff - Huff is having his best year since 2003 and given his tendency to hit better after the All-Star break, he may be on his way to a career year. His trade value has never been nor will ever be higher. Trade him. Ironically, Tampa Bay could use some offense and need a first baseman. Depending on David Ortiz's health, Boston could use him too. Let's get what we can.

Brian Roberts - I won't be upset if the O's keep Roberts but, again, the head says it's time to get maximum value. Trade him.

George Sherrill - Lots of contenders need relief help for playoff runs. Trade him now.

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Speaking of Sherrill, a few weeks ago I looked at "The Nailbiters", the Oriole closers who would strike fear into the hearts of the O's faithful when they took the mound. Back then, I determined that George was not even in the top ten. No longer. With a WHIP of 1.412, Sherrill now makes the list. Solidly. To paraphrase John Cusak in "High Fidelity", "Congratulations George. You're now #6 in my top Nailbiters of all time. With a bullet."

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O's blogger Desert O (aka Appalachian Trail thru-hiker "Vegas") has made it past the halfway point to Maine and is solidly into Pennsylvania. Way to go and good luck!

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After posting a .323/.349/.455 line in June, The Truth is hitting .341/.400/.545 in July.

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Even with their recent losing ways, the Orioles managed to elicit a good grimace from Clay Bucholz on Friday night:

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Yes, it's only 17 games but...

Matt Wieters. In Bowie, he's put up a .350/.426/.600 which is virtually identical to the .345/.448/.576 line he put up at Frederick. There has been no adjustment needed.

You never want to rush a prospect and in Baltimore's case there's really no need. But I expect we will now see Wieters in Baltimore on Opening Day 2009.

Put Brian Roberts in the All-Star Game!

I am on vacation with very tenuous internet access but I did want to drop a line to urge everyone to go to MLB.com and vote for Brian Roberts for the All-Star game. Only Evan Longoria is arguably Roberts' equal as a deserving candidate.

Vote early, vote often! Go!