5 Things I'm Watching During Spring Training

The wins and losses are meaningless, so are most of the stats. But there is plenty to watch every year in Spring Training. A little late with this but since we are a week into the exhibition season, I wanted to outline the 5 things I am watching for while the O's tune up in Sarasota.

1. Ryan Flaherty and Matt Antonelli

The former was the Orioles' Rule 5 pick, the latter a minor league free agent signed to a major league deal. With Brian Roberts doubtful ever to play for Baltimore again, it is possible that both of these infielders make the team. but they are both something of unknown commodities and I am curious to see what they can do and how they can do it. Both are low cost gambles and it would be nice if they could pay off.

2. The Asian Imports

Speaking of unknown commodities, one never knows exactly how NPB players will fare when faced with MLB competition. Pitchers Wei-Yin Chen and Tsuyoshi Wada are no different. So even though spring training stats have to be taken with a grain of salt,  it will be fascinating to see how they fare against MLB hitters and, for Wada anyway, whether he will pitch in the rotation or out of the bullpen.

3. The Young Guns

Unlike previous years, I am not looking to see progress in Baltimore's crop of young starters, I am just looking for signs of life. Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, Chris Tillman, Zach Britton and Brad Bergesen are all coming of seasons of inconsistency, injury, general ineffectiveness or some combination of the three. Who will break camp with the big club? Who will be able to contribute beyond 2012? Are any of these guys nuggets still?

4. Dirty Jim...Finally the Closer?

Jim Johnson has watched the team spend big money on "proven closers" before the past two seasons and probably wondered why he wasn't given a shot instead. Since 2008, Johnson has posted an ERA+ of  144, by far the best among any Oriole reliever who pitched in more than 100 games. (Koji Uehara had similar effectiveness but in fewer games.) It will be interesting to see how Johnson is used as Spring Training moves forward. I would imagine Buck will want him to get used to pitching in the 9th.

5. Jai Miller

Since I started writing this blog, every spring there was a question about who would be the backup catcher.Not this year. Barring injury, Taylor Teagarden will be backing up Matt Wieters.

The outfield would seem to be settled but RF Nick Markakis is coming back from injury and LF Nolan Reimold was struck in the face with a pitch this yesterday. That could give some playing time early in the season to 27-year old Jai Miller.

Miller OPS'ed .976 for Sacramento in the (admittedly) offense friendly Pacific Coast League but that developing bat and his ability to play anywhere in the outfield (he has primarily played centerfield during his minor league career, including last season) make him an intriguing option as a fourth outfielder.  Endy Chavez is likely to fill that role but I'd have more fun watching Miller patrol Camden Yards this summer.

If You Can't Hit, Jorge Arangure Doesn't Care About Your Injuries

Oriole left fielder Nolan Reimold took a fastball to the face in the first inning of today's exhibition game against the Tampa Bay Rays and from all accounts, it was pretty nasty.

Three innings later, we learned that IF Ryan Flaherty, the club's Rule 5 pick, took a pitch in the shoulder via Roch Kubatko on Twitter. Jorge Arangure replied to that tweet:

Forget, for a moment, that his comment is kind of a cheap dig at the Orioles and, for their fans, kind of rubbing their faces in 14 straight seasons of losing. I'm making that leap butI suppose it's not fair to expect Mr. Arangure to understand the psyche of the modern Oriole fan. (But considering he spent years covering the O's for the Washington Post, maybe it is a fair expectation.)

But so close on the heels of a scary injury to Reimold, one that had him laid out for several minutes and taken directly to a local hospital, this comment seemed a bit callous, to say the least.

I retweeted his statement with comment which started a small back and forth:

That is indeed the cold, hard reality. But the timing of that comment really was poor. As you will see later, that timing may have been related to a misunderstanding but while Mr. Arangure may not "enjoy" seeing players get hurt, it doesn't seem to concern him much. At least if they're not any good.

And this is true. It was a reply to the Flaherty tweet from Roch Kubatko.

But he never said that he did not know that Reimold had been injured. Roch referenced it ever so obliquely with "And so it continues." in that initial tweet. I mentioned a player getting hit in the face, not the shoulder, and it did not seem to give him pause. And assuming that an injury is serious enough to keep a bad player out of a lineup, thus making his production easier to replace than a good one, it would seem the assumption is that the injury was bad enough to keep the player out of a lineup. As he says, a guy who gets hit in the shoulder is not a catastrophic event. Getting hit in the face with a fast ball typically is.

So I will take him at his word that he was referring the the Flaherty injury and that he was ignorant of the more serious Reimold injury, even if that seems a bit suspect.

But doesn't Ryan Flaherty deserve a bit of human sympathy anyway? If you prick him, does he not bleed? By all accounts, Flaherty was in visible pain when he was struck. If he was to miss any time, should it be trivialized just because he is much more likely to hit .220 than .320?  You would think that Mr. Arangure has spent enough time around ball players to be a little less flippant about injuries. But Ryan Flaherty going on the DL is not nearly the story that an Alex Rodriguez injury would be. And to many baseball writers, if it's not a big story, it's not worth being concerned about. On any level.

Spring Training: Ed Smith Stadium Guide

I have finally come to terms with the fact that I will not be attending Oriole Spring Training 2012 and I have not been since the inaugural training in Sarasota in 2010. (sigh....)

Since I cannot accurately update my Unofficial Guide to Oriole Spring Training, I instead point you to Spring Training Connection's review of Ed Smith Stadium. It is very thorough and a great resource if you are still heading down to Sarasota in March. Check it out!

As a supplement, here's the link to last year's Unofficial Baltimore Orioles Spring Training Visitor's Guide. Some of the information will still be relevant.

Orioles and Korea: Troubling Signs for Baltimore's International Scouting Efforts

I wanted to comment on this article in Baseball America last week that breaks down the Orioles' debacle involving the attempted signing of Korean high school pitcher Seong-Min Kim.

I have been pretty approving of all the changes the Orioles have been making under Dan Duquette and thought that shaking up the organization and focusing on international markets are fine ideas. The organization needed that and my opinion was that any change was better than the status quo.

However, the details regarding the signing of Kim make one wonder about the judgement of the people heading up some of these efforts. For one, the pitcher was not even considered a great prospect to begin with.

More notable than the breach of protocol, however, was the amount the Orioles agreed to pay a player regarded by most teams that scouted him as a marginal prospect. (Dan) Duquette declined to comment on Kim's scouting report now that he's no longer under contract...


Many believed the Orioles were the only team interested in Kim. Several teams turned him in as a non-prospect.


"Where was the competition," asked one international scouting director, "to drive the bonus to $575,000 when they could have signed him for $5,000?"

That's a good question. Why are the Orioles so anxious to sign a fringy prospect that they jump the gun and break protocol? There is one man who can answer that.

After hiring Duquette in November, the Orioles announced the hiring of Ray Poitevint as their new executive director of international baseball in a Jan. 9 press release. Poitevint has extensive experience signing players in Asia, including during Duquette's tenure as Red Sox GM from 1994-2001. The two have worked together since Duquette began his career in baseball with the Brewers in 1981. Poitevint said in an interview that Duquette started out as his assistant, and the two were together in Milwaukee until Duquette left to join the Expos after the 1987 season.


Poitevint said he scouted Kim for two and a half years, and that he and an associate he has known for 30 years—whom he declined to name—evaluated Kim for the Orioles. When asked who else was interested in signing Kim, Poitevint said, "Everybody," adding, "This is the type of guy who draws scouts...."


"We'll see what happens," Poitevint said. "If we have an opportunity to introduce ourselves again to him, we'll try to sign him, just like anyone else. We know there's going to be a lot of competition."

So the first issue is that Mr. Poitevant and his scouts are far, far off the reservation when it comes to the general scouting consensus on this kid. That is troublesome, as is the amount of money they threw Kim's way, but sometimes an individual scout can see things others may miss.

But an even bigger issue is that Mr. Poitevant and his "extensive experience" in Asia managed commit a huge gaffe, nullifying a contract and losing access to Korean baseball, less than 3 months into his job.

Questionable talent assessment and procederal ignorance? This is not the kind of change this team needs.

2012 Oriole Win Predictions

It's that time again. Today, I will try to predict the Oriole win total using estimated playing time, projections and the WAR spreadsheet from Beyond the Boxscore.

I used Sky Kalkman's updated WAR Spreadsheet for the calculations and based on Matt Swartz's article on testing projections systems at Fangraphs.com, I used a combination of ZiPS and Oliver projections for the hitters and Steamer FIP projections for the pitchers.

I am assuming a 12 man pitching staff and based on that assumption, here are the 13 position players I have breaking camp:

C Matt Wieters
1B Chris Davis
2B Robert Andino
SS JJ Hardy
3B Mark Reynolds
RF Nick Markakis
CF Adam Jones
LF Nolan Reimold
IF/DH Wilson Betemit
OF Endy Chavez
IF Matt Antonelli
IF Ryan Flaherty
C Taylor Teagarden

I do not expect Brian Roberts to break camp with the rest of the team and I don't really expect him to contribute much to the Orioles going forward. That will allow the new corp of infielders to head north with the club. Nick Markakis may still start the season on the DL allowing Jai Miller a bit of playing time early.

The pitching situation is cloudier due to the current injuries, a few pitchers coming back from injury and sorting out all the options (or lack thereof) of relievers in camp. I did the best I could with the composition of the pitching staff and you could certainly trade out a Darren O'Day for a Kevin Gregg and I wouldn't have an argument with that. But the bullpen roster, outside of Jim Johnson and Matt Lindstrom, is anybody's guess and quite frankly there probably won't be a hige difference in performance. Troy Patton, for instance, is probably more wishful thinking on my part although I think he could be a very good bullpen arm. He is just as likely to be waived or traded as he is to make the team. Also wishful thinking is the departure via trade or waivers of Kevin Gregg. But I digress.

So, here it is:





A few thoughts and explanations...

- Even without the additions of big name (but old and ineffective) veterans this offseason, the projections only have the team winning 5 fewer games. (Vladimir Guerrero and Derrek Lee didn't even sniff their 2011 projections...)

- Oliver loves Chris Davis. It projected a .803 OPS for 2012. ZiPS hates Chris Davis. It projects a .739 OPS. It was the biggest discrepency on the team. I split the difference. Anything approching the Oliver projection for Davis would be really nice for the offense.

- I have probably overestimated the total team defense. I may have overestimated the impact of plus defenders and not taken enough away from some suspect defenders. Outside of Matt Wieters and JJ Hardy, there are no defensive standouts on the team (not even Adam Jones or Nick Markakis, Gold Gloves notwithstanding). Most of the team ranges from solid to awful. That said, I think Wieters' combination of stellar defense and a solid to great bat will make him the most valuable member of the team.

- You can see the impact that losing an above average starter that can throw 200 innings can have on a rotation. All those innings are going to have to be cobbled together around Jason Hammel, the only member of the starting staff that has thrown more than 170 innings in an MLB season.

- The NPB imports of Wei Chen and Tsuyoshi Wada do not have Steamer projections. Wada's is a ZiPS projection and Chen is just a wild guess. With Wada's injury and the general difficulty of projecting NPB pitchers, these innings and ERA projections are probably the best possible scenarios.

- Speaking of best possible scenarios, remember when we were all excited about the young Oriole arms? Now, according to projecitons, getting 130 innings of 4.69 ERA from Jake Arrieta seems to be the best performance we can expect from this group. (And given he is coming back from elbow surgery, that may be in question too.) With Zach Britton's shoulder soreness, Brian Matusz's big step back in 2011 and Chris Tillman's general ineffectiveness, it's hard to count on any of them to do big things in 2012.

- Mark Reynolds should, once again, be the best offensive player on the team. Take that how you will.

All of this breaks down to about 74 wins and, unlike the last couple of years, I don't see much chance of the Orioles exceeding that win total. In fact, I think this may be the best case scenario. OK, we could have a few position players take big steps forward (Jones, Wieters, Davis and Reimold) and a couple of the young pitchers could develop into reliable starters (Matusz, Britton and Arrieta) and the NPB imports could be better than advertised and the Orioles field a decent lineup and a solid pitching staff. But if you have been watching the O's over the past few seasons, you know how unlikely all these players hitting their ceilings in the same season seems.

Given that my predicitons in previous years have been a bit too optimistic, I think Baltimore will struggle to reach 70 wins in 2012. If they fail, it will be the 6th straight season that they have failed to reach the 70 win mark. I'll try to look for silver linings to this dark cloud in the coming weeks.

This Week in Chat: 2/13/2011

Where we distill all the week's baseball chats down to their Oriole essence...

Fangraphs After Dark Chat

9:27 Comment From SeanP
Dan Duquette said that the Orioles couldn't get any team to trade prospects for Jeremy Guthrie. Does that change the outlook of the Guthrie-for-Hammel/Lindstrom trade?

9:27 Chris Cwik:
Not really. At least get something useful for Guthrie. The O's didn't even cut salary in the deal. What was the point?

9:28 Paul Swydan:
No. He should have waited until the deadline. The stories about the O's and Guthrie clashing over arb negotiations brought back memories of the Duke and John Valentin bickering in the media about what doctor should perform his knee surgery.

9:28 Zach Sanders:
I never thought they'd get a prospect, so no, not for me. I liked it for the Os, actually. Hammel will never meet his FIP numbers or stuff, but Lindstrom is more than useful.

9:40 Comment From Fattinton_Bear
Does Jeremy Guthrie going to COL make him have fantasy value since he'll be in an easier division and an easier league?

9:40 Chris Cwik:
I'm not a big Guthrie fan. So, no.

9:40 Zach Sanders:
I have him getting a small boost, but it's pretty much the same.

9:41 Paul Swydan:
I don't think so. I don't think any Rockies starting pitcher is really worth drafting this year.


Dave Cameron, Fangraphs

12:19 Comment From Charles
Convince me that Dan Duquette isn't the absolute worst general manager in the game right now

12:19
Ned Colletti.


Dave Schoenfield, ESPN

Austin (A's fan in NYC)
Dave,Based on everything from current on-field talent to front-office aptitude, ownership and ballpark situations, division, and payroll considerations, how would you rank the teams facing the longest roads to serious contention? I'm thinking 1 Baltimore (farthest from contention); 2 Houston; 3 Mets; 4 Pittsburgh; fifth?Mariners? I?m hoping not my A?s, but they're probably part of the conversation.

David Schoenfield (1:05 PM)
I think everyone agrees the Astros have the least talent in the organization (from majors down to the minors). But they do at least play in the NL Central, so they may be able to rebuild in 3-4 years. Considering their division, I agree with you: Orioles are probably No. 1 on this list, even though they have some talent in the bigs and on the farm. I'd probably rank the A's "ahead" of the Mariners. Ballpark situation just too big of a negative.

Confused (Baltimore)
Dan Duquette, misunderstood genius or delusional? He seems to be tilting at windmills to me. What am I missing?

David Schoenfield (1:24 PM)
Yeah, I'm not quite sure what the Guthrie trade was all about. I know he saves money with Hammel and he gets two years of team control with Hammel and Lindstrom, but seems Guthrie could have been flipped for a good prospect with SIX years of team control. Not a terrible trade, but not one that really accomplishes anything for Baltimore.

John (Baltimore)
Does Matusz turn it around this year or is he a bust?

David Schoenfield (1:34 PM)
No idea. I know he's said his velocity was down after returning, but I still wonder if he was pitching through an injury. Or maybe he just went through what Halladay did as a young pitcher. Halladay had to go all the way back to Class A to rediscover his mechanics.

Jason (St Louis)
How about Adam Jones for Shelby Miller, Zack Cox and Jon Jay? Who says no?

David Schoenfield (1:43 PM)
I think the Cardinals do. I'm on record as thinking Jones is overrated. Jay is OK and Miller's potential isn't worth the upgrade from Jay to Jones.


Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus

Paul (DC):
Who are the likely top contenders to bid for Yoennis Cespedes' services?

Kevin Goldstein:
Cubs, Marlins, Orioles, White Sox, Blue Jays, Rangers, mystery team.

john m (ct):
Any chance Brian Matusz regains his stuff?

Kevin Goldstein:
There is obviously SOME chance, it's counting on it that is the risky part.


Keith Law, ESPN

bubble boy (the bubble)
If Bundy were 6'4 would he be top 5? I know, if if were a skiff we'd all be sailing...

Klaw (1:20 PM)
Best line I heard on him was from a senior FO guy who said something close to this: "If Dylan Bundy was 6'4" he'd be in an Opening Day rotation."

Joe (Pittsburgh)
In hindsight, should the pirates regret choosing Taillon over Machado

Klaw (1:21 PM)
That seems awfully strong, and awfully quick. Even if they get the lesser player, Taillon's not a stiff.

Snakes (Philly)
The Orioles Guthrie to Colorado trade is... strange at best. What were they thinking in your opinion? Oh- and they are likely to sign Manny Ramirez too!!

Klaw (1:46 PM)
At best, it's a lateral move. And it's probably a small step back.

Kevin (MD)
O's fan here. Talk me off my ledge and give me hope for the future Keith! Anything to look forward to other than Bundy or Machado?

Klaw (2:18 PM)
Schoop, Bridwell, Delmonico. It's not Houston, where there's just very little talent. But you've got the worst owner in the game, and a GM operating out of a playbook so old it's written on papyrus.

Jeb (Chicago)
Thoughts regarding KBA banning Baltimore because of Kim Seong-min? Did Baltimore really mess up or is this not a big deal?

Klaw (2:20 PM)
They messed up. MLB values its relationships with KBO and NPB, so I imagine they're really unhappy. All this for a non-prospect, too.

Obscure Oriole Transaction Spotlight: Chris Tremblay

Who says the Orioles haven't made any moves?

Name: Chris Tremblay
Position: 2B
Throws: R
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 185
Age: 25

Tremblay was born in Montreal and was drafted out of Kent State by he Padres in the 19th round of the 2009 draft.

Up to this point he has been a light-hitting utility type (catcher, centerfielder and pitcher were the only spots he did not play in the Padre system) and with his .591 minor league career OPS and with only 78 games played at high-A by age 24, his glove had better be really good.

What else do we know about Mr. Temblay? He has a really gnarly tattoo on his shoulder and he writes a blog, not about baseball, but about literature and writing. He does have an entry about getting released by the Padres but generally, this is not a baseball blog.

Look for him in Frederick this season.