The Wisdom of Signing Wilson

With the signing of Wilson Betemit, the Orioles seem to have found their DH for 2012.

That is a statement made with tongue firmly in cheek but it's not as crazy as you might think. To beat the rotting horse's corpse that I love so well:

                       AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   G   WAR   
2009-2011 Betemit     .284  .354  .467  .821  201  1.5
2009-2011 Guerrero    .295  .332  .458  .790  397  2.5

The signing of Vladimir Guerrero at this time last year was hailed as filling a gaping hole at DH for the O's. Betemit will surely do no worse.

Especially if he's deployed in the correct way. If Betemit is the DH against righties (.817 career OPS against RHP) and, say, Mark Reynolds gets the bulk of DH starts against lefties (.882 career OPS against LHP) with scattered DH at bats for Matt Wieters, Nolan Reimold and others, that doesn't seem to be a bad solution to improve production from that spot in the lineup.

Betemit is billed as a utility infielder but honestly, he's never been a great fielder. Imagine a tick or two below Ty Wigginton and you'll get an idea of what he will look like in the field this season. While he will get some starts int he field, the Orioles will be wise to have him serve primarily as a DH and a pinch hitter. (And as unorthodox as that may sound, I believe that is exactly the plan for him.)

Nor does Betemit create any kind of roster crowding or crisis. The projected members of the roster, position players only, assuming a 12-man pitching staff.

C
Matt Wieters 
Taylor Teagarden

IF
Chris Davis
J.J. Hardy
Mark Reynolds
Robert Andino
Matt Antonelli
Ryan Flaherty
Wilson Betemit

OF
Endy Chavez
Nolan Reimold
Adam Jones
Nick Markakis

This assumes that Flaherty makes the roster at all (no guarantee of that) and I am certainly not counting on Brian Roberts playing for Baltimore in 2012. If Flaherty does not remain with the MLB club, there would be room for Ryan Adams or a resurrected Roberts. This move may signal that a trade is in the works but I hardly think it's necessary based on the current construction of the club.

And considering the price Betemit signed for ($3.25M for 2 years), the 30-year old is virtually a slam dunk to be a good return on investment. (OK, the 2-year commitment was a little weird...) But this signing, if he is to be used the way I expect, makes way more sense and gives the team way more flexibility than the Guerrero and Derrek Lee signings of last offseason.

Merry Christmas!

Andy MacPhail's Christmas Gift to Baltimore

The Orioles have plenty of holes to fill this offseason and seemingly every offseason. But there is one critical position that they do not have to fill. Shortstop.

You could make the argument that the rarest commodity in the free agent market this season is a shortstop who can hit and field his position well. (OK, good all-around catchers and starting pitching is probably a rarer commodity.) But thanks to the dealings of former team president Andy MacPhail over the last year, the O's don't have to overpay for that talent now.

Last December, MacPhail dealt a couple of minor league relievers to the Twins for SS J.J. Hardy. For a couple of spare parts, Hardy turned out to be a low-cost, low-risk gamble that paid off big for the O's. Hardy played a good defensive shortstop, posted an .801 OPS and had 57 extra base hits. It was a performance from a Baltimore shortstop that we haven't seen since the early days of the Miguel Tejada era.

Knowing how tight the shortstop market would be after the season, MacPhail and the Orioles signed Hardy to a 3-year extension for a total contract of $22.5M. Given Hardy's age and skillset the contract stacks up very well to what other free agent shortstops are getting this offseaon.

                 AGE   3-year OPS+  3-year WAR total   Total Contract  Yearly Average
J. Reyes          29      120            9.9               $111M          $18.5M
J. Rollins        33       91            9.3                $33M          $11.0M
R. Furcal         34       98            8.2                $14M           $7.0M
Y. Betancourt     30       77           -0.7                 $2M           $2.0M
J.J. Hardy        29       98            8.7              $22.5M           $7.5M

In a market where Ronny Cedeno is now considered a hot commodity and other free agents are going for much more, Hardy's extension looks like a relative bargain.

And unlink some other free agents signed last offseason to play in Baltimore, Hardy actually will be a tradeable commodity come July.

No, Hardy is not the player Reyes is when he's healthy and Hardy certainly has some injury risks of his own but he is very likely to fill the shortstop position until Manny Machado is ready to take over or bring back some other prospects to replentish the farm system. And the Orioles don't have to overpay this offseason to get a competent shortstop.

Thanks, Andy. You had many good moments as GM but Hardy may turn out to be one of your better ones.

The Endy Chavez Signing and The Oriole Free Agency Strategy Thus Far

The Orioles made it official and announced the signing of veteran outfielder Endy Chavez. The deal is reported to be worth $1.5M with another $500K in incentives.

My enduring memory of Chavez was from a game I saw him play against the Astros in Montreal in 2003. He was manning center field for the Expos and made a couple of really nice plays defensively and stroked an RBI double to tie the game. (The Expos won in the bottom of the 10th as Jose Macias, of all people, hit a walk off homer.)

He's not the fielder he was 9 years ago but he might just be the best defensive outfielder for the Orioles in 2012. His 6.6 UZR/150 score for the Rangers would have led all Oriole outfielders in 2011. His bat is not horrible and he is a decent, if not great, baserunner. As far as 4th outfielder candidates go, Matt Angle and Kyle Hudson are the only players on the roster who could fill that role and I don't think either is ready for that job in 2012 (if ever). Chavez fills a need and he is likely to be worth every penny of the contract the O's pay him.

The signing of Chavez has led to much grumbling from fans who were awaiting a more siginificant signing from the team this offseason. But upon his introduction to the press, Dan Duquette all but said that the O's would NOT be big players in free agency this offseason:

A lot of teams spent a lot of money on those major league acquisitions and didn't get the kind of production they are looking for. Here in Baltimore we have to work smarter to invest our money, so that we getter better bang for our buck. We have to work smarter.

And the thing is, he's right. Say what you will about the acquisitions made this offseason are not exciting but at least they do fill needs. There was nobody to be the backup catcher, they found a good one in Taylor Teagarden. The desperately needed a 4th outfielder, they sign Chavez. The pitching staff, especially the rotation, needs a lot of help. I do not like the Dana Eveland signing but that is an area where the O's need bodies. The low cost gamble on Tsuyoshi Wada is very likely to help the rotation.

More importantly, they haven't taken on much in payroll and they haven't given up anyone from the farm system who is likely to help the MLB club at any time in the future. Nor have they acquired any player who is likely to block any young players/prospects this season. Nor have they given out multi-million, multi-year deals to middling relievers.

No, there have been no trades of the like that brought J.J. Hardy or Mark Reynolds to town. But there have been no silly Vladimir Guerrero or Kevin Gregg signings either. The Orioles are just not going to make a big splash in free agency this offseason. And it won't help them anyway.

Lest we forget, signing Albert Belle or Miguel Tejada didn't exactly make the Orioles perennial winners. One big free agent or two or three won't assure a winning season. Especially with the team Baltimore has right now.

Andy MacPhail brought this farm system out of the abyss but the system still has a long way to go. O's fans don't want to hear about patience after 14 seasons of losing but that's what you're going to need.

If that doesn't work for you, go down I-95 and watch Jayson Werth.

The Crystal Ball 2012: Matt Wieters

Matt Wieters is finally starting to fulfill the massive promise he showed in the minors.

His bat finally started to come around and he flashed some of that power we expected to see from Day 1. He smacked 22 homers, and easily set career highs in slugging percentage and ISO. I don't think anyone believed that Wieters would be such a good defensive catcher but he delivered Gold Glove caliber defense and has cemented himself as one of the better defensive catchers in the game. No regular delivered such a combination of  bat and glove from the catcher position in 2012. (OK, Arizona's Miguel Montero comes close.)

So this is it right? He just keeps getting better and better and multiple MVPs lie in his future. Well, not exactly...

He did only hit .262 last season. He lowered his strikeout rate for the third straight season but his walk rate dipped a bit as well, contributing to his .328 OBP. And he only OPSed .662 against right handed pitchers.

Which is what concerns me. Over the first two seasons of his career, Wieters has hit fairly well against righties while struggling mightily against lefties. This season, while he was posting that .662 OPS against righties he was clobbering lefties to the tune of a 1.124 OPS.

Leaders in wOBA against left handed pitchers in 2011:

wOBA
Bautista         .475
Wieters          .472
Kemp             .462
Napoli           .445
Braun            .443

After struggling against lefties for his first two seasons, Wieters hit them, literally, at MVP levels in 2012.

Which is great...but it screams fluke.

Is Wieters going to keep OPSing 1.124 against lefties going forward. Not a chance. His OPS against lefties prior to last season was sub-.650. There's just no way he can sustain that. He career OPS against righties is .725. There is reason to believe that 2012 will see a slight hiccup and/or regression in Wieters' offensive production.

But there are still reason to believe in the bat. The power surge is likely legit and more in line with what we expected from him all along (.188 ISO in '11, a 60 point jump from the previous year) and the .276 BABIP was probably a little unlucky. With the power likely to keep on an upward clip and a few more balls falling his way, the regression against lefties that is likely to occur can be offset.

The bat is very good for a catcher and I think ultimately he will be an elite hitter but 2012 may be a bit uneven and a struggle for our Gold Glove catcher.

This Week in Chat - 12/19/2011

Where we distill all the recent baseball chats down to their Oriole essence...


Jason Parks, Baseball Prospectus

Will T. (Cary, N.C.):
Upside of Orioles RHP Parker Bridwell?

Jason Parks:
Could be an innings horse, but he still has a long way to go. He's a Texan, so that helps.

@Lembeck451 (Detroit):
Has Chris Davis officially become Chris Shelton (please say yes, please say yes), or does he have a bounceback in him?

Jason Parks:
He could bounce back, but he's probably a 4A


Tim Dierkes, MLB Trade Rumors

2:08 Comment From Dathan
What are the chances the Cardinals end up with either Adam Jones or Carlos Beltran, and which do you think is the better fit in St. Louis?

2:08 Tim Dierkes:
Jones for sure, but I don't see any indication he's available.

2:16 Comment From DumbBravesFan
Is Prado/Jurrjens (2 arb guys not in Braves' future plans) too much to give up for Adam Jones (a potential cornerstone)?

2:16 Tim Dierkes:
I'd move those two for two years of Jones, but he's not a cornerstone unless you extend him to a huge deal.

2:28 Comment From Lonely Non-Tender list
Who's the best value out there from the recent non-tender list?

2:29 Tim Dierkes:
Hong-Chih Kuo, maybe Luke Scott.

2:58 Comment From Tim
Just to be clear, the Orioles would need to get a better return than Prado/Jurrjens for AJ, correct? At least younger, more controllable players?

2:58 Tim Dierkes:
Yes, I'd want a much different return for Adam Jones as well. We have to get a feel for Dan Duquette though.

2:58 Comment From Omazing
Some Orioles sites are saying there is tons of interest in Luke Scott.. any truth to this?

2:59 Tim Dierkes:
I think Dan Connolly said ten teams called. Certainly makes sense to me, get him for one year and $5MM plus incentives not too far removed from some .500 slugging seasons.


Keith Law, ESPN

Kevin (Jersey)
Profar or Machado? Or are we splitting hairs?

Klaw (1:25 PM)
Machado. But it's not a huge gap. Pretty strong crop of SS prospects right now.

Ethan (Maine)
Why are we hearing nothing about the japenese free agent pitchers Wei-Yin Chen and Iwakuma?

Klaw (1:26 PM)
Haven't we heard Baltimore with Chen? I also assume that we need to get Darvish cleared from the market before those guys get more interest, just because they're second-tier (not just because they're also international FAs).

Michael (San Jose, CA)
Lots of disappointment in Oakland right now for us A's fans? With the emergence of the Rangers and Angels, we're basically the Baltimore Orioles without the nice ballpark.

Klaw (2:08 PM)
But you have competent management. I'm not sure we can say that for Baltimore given ownership's clear intention to meddle.

Alex (NJ)
Keith, O's pitching moves (Eveland, Wada): reasonable gambles to see who might have a decent enough year to stick, or near-guaranteed 5-ish ERA flameouts? Hope for the future obviously lies with Matusz, Britton, and guys still in the minors, but they could do worse than try Wada every fifth day, right?

Klaw (2:20 PM)
I don't see it. Low upside guys in a tough division.

Jason (St Louis)
The no on Palmeiro is because he was a consistent stat builder and not a hof, not because he used peds right?

Klaw (2:21 PM)
Correct. Really never among the best players in his league.

Obscure Oriole Transaction Spotlight: Miguel Socolovich

Who says the Orioles haven't made any moves?

Name: Miguel Socolovich
Position: RP
Throws: R
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 175
Age: 25

Socolovich is a Venezuelan native who started out in the Red Sox organization and was traded to the White Sox for David Aardsma in 2008.

Although this whole feature is meant to be tongue in cheek, Socolovich is actually an interesting pickup. So much so that Jon Shepherd at Camden Depot mentioned him as a  potential target for Baltimore more than a month ago. In 74 AAA innings over the past two seasons, the numbers look like this:

G     IP   K   BB   HR   WHIP   ERA
Socolovich (AAA)  47    74.0 93   43    4   1.50  3.65

That's an 11.3 K/9 rate at AAA which is pretty impressive. He also keeps the ball in the park which is always good. The only thing to be concerned about is his walk rate (although it was better in 2011 than it was in 2010) and that WHIP (which the walk rate is contributing to).

As many questions as there are around the Oriole bullpen this offseason, I actually see no reason why Socolovich might not get a chance to pitch in Baltimore in 2012, assuming he can continue his AAA performance for Norfolk, of course. Having spent parts of the last two season in the IL with Charlotte, I would imagine he will.

Grade: Potential Nugget