Tuesday, July 21, 2009

Trade Value Calculator: Estimated Oriole Trade Values

A quick look at some trade values of current Oriole players using the Trade Value Calculator developed by Sky Kalkman at Beyond the Box Score. For a more detailed analysis of individual players, see the series frostking is putting together at Camden Crazies, I believe he is using the same calculator.

The rundown:



Aubrey Huff

Year Sal (M) WAR Val (M) Net (M) Sal (M) Arb %
2009 $4.0 0.2 $1.1 -$2.9 $4.0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
FA Picks $2.5
Total $4.0 0.2 $3.6 -$0.4


George Sherrill

Year Sal (M) WAR Val (M) Net (M) Sal (M) Arb %
2009 $2.8 1.5 $7.0 $4.2 $2.8
2010 $4.0 1.0 $4.7 $0.7 $4.0
2011 $4.3 1.0 $4.9 $0.7 $4.3
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
FA Picks $2.5
Total $11.0 3.5 $19.1 $8.1


Melvin Mora

Year Sal (M) WAR Val (M) Net (M) Sal (M) Arb %
2009 $4.5 0.4 $2.0 -$2.5 $4.5
2010 $9.0 0.8 $3.8 -$5.2 $9.0
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
FA Picks $2.5
Total $13.5 1.2 $8.3 -$5.2


Oscar Salazar

Year Sal (M) WAR Val (M) Net (M) Sal (M) Arb %
2009 $0.2 0.2 $1.1 $1.0 $0.2
2010 $0.4 1.5 $7.2 $6.8 $0.4
2011 $3.0 1.6 $7.6 $4.6 40%
2012 $4.8 1.7 $8.1 $3.2 60%
2013 $6.8 1.8 $8.5 $1.7 80%
2014
2015
2016
FA Picks $0.0
Total $15.2 6.8 $32.4 $17.2


Danys Baez

Year Sal (M) WAR Val (M) Net (M) Sal (M) Arb %
2009 $2.7 0.0 $0.2 -$2.5 $2.7
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
FA Picks $0.0
Total $2.7 0.0 $0.6 -$2.1


Cla Meredith

Year Sal (M) WAR Val (M) Net (M) Sal (M) Arb %
2009 $0.2 0.2 $1.1 $0.9 $0.2
2010 $1.1 0.5 $2.7 $1.6 40%
2011 $1.6 0.5 $2.7 $1.1 60%
2012 $2.1 0.5 $2.7 $0.5 80%
2013
2014
2015
2016
FA Picks $0.0
Total $5.0 1.7 $9.1 $4.1




Obviously, I made some assumptions for these calculations but I don't think they're crazy.

Aubrey Huff, at current production is a huge drain. Most of his remaining value is tied up in the fact that he may be a Type B free agent and garner the O's a draft pick if he walks. But you'd have to offer Huff arbitration for that to happen and he just might take it...

Sherrill has a ton of value due mostly to the fact that he remains under arbitration for the next three years. The Orioles should get good value for him if they plan to move him.

Mora is abysmal and in this calculation I have the O's picking up his option for 2010. Eeesh. I put him at a Type B free agent but I must have been smoking crack. No way he qualifies and no way Baltimore offers him arbitration.

Look show much value Oscar Salazar provides relative to his salary. I was very conservative with his production too; modest production in a platoon role. I think he could have been more but that ship has sailed.

That's right. Danys Baez has 0.0 WAR undoing all the good from the beginning of the season. He has little real value, antyhing Baltimore receives would be a bonus.

There's Cla Meredith. I'm being optimistic about his perofrmance. Still valuable if he can be slightly above average.

2 comments:

FrostKing said...

Thanks for the link. I actually wasn't using their calculator - I started looking at Huff before they even put it up, I believe - but the procedure is the same. Once those tools are out there it makes a lot of sense to put them together in this manner.

I should point out that you overstate Sherrill's value a little by including his full 2009 instead of just the rest of it as you did with everyone else.

Also, though I know you're being conservative with respect to Salazar, I don't think it's realistic to expect him to actually get better as time moves forward. That's one of the reasons his age was important. I won't argue that he's likely to be more valuable if given the chance than Meredith though - that is pretty likely.

I'm excited to see if any bigger deals get done - I'd really like a young third-baseman for next year.

Heath said...

Thanks for the feedback. I did overestimate Sherrill a bit.

Back to Salazar, just because a guy is 31 does not mean he won't get better with more experience. Once a guy has 1500 plate appearances, maybe you could make that statement. But Salazar doesn't even have 150. It's not hard to imagine that he could get better if he faced more major league hitting. Hitters' development is not linear; different guys develop at different times and many are late bloomers. Edgar Martinez got much better after age 31. Jayson Werth continues to get better in his age 30 season.

Age can be used against a guy when he A) has a major league track record to juxtapose it against, B)when he's past 35 or C) because he's expensive or under a long term contract.

Salazar has none of these strikes against him. Suppose the Orioles had moved Huff and put Salazar over at first for the rest of the season and he had OPSed north of .850. There would be no reason to assume that he wouldn't still be a good player when the team turned it around in a couple years and he certainly wouldn't be expensive. Just because a guy doesn't fit the mold doesn't mean he's not a valuable player.