Thursday, September 30, 2010

2010 Chone vs 2010 Results

I took a look back at some of the CHONE projections for some of the key players from your 2010 Baltimore Orioles and compared them with the actual numbers and added a few thoughts.


             AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   HR
Projected   .271  .326  .451  .777   17
Actual      .254  .319  .426  .745   22

I thought the projection for Ty looked a bit optimistic and it turned out that it was. Those aren't bad numbers for a bench/platoon type though. If the Orioles could bring him back next year in that role, I wouldn't be opposed. In the field he is a jack-of-all-trades but master of none type but he is a capable sub around the infield and as a corner outfielder.


             AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   HR
Projected   .255  .301  .334  .635    2
Actual      .236  .282  .275  .557    1

Izzy came in well under even the paltry projections. You have to wonder if the glove is good enough to justify the weak bat. I love having a guy out there who is going to catch the ball, I just don't know if it's worth the drawbacks at the plate.


             AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   HR
Projected   .273  .332  .435  .767   10 
Actual      .271  .303  .399  .703    5

Man, I like Felix Pie but are these the numbers you wanted to see from him in 2010. He was injured but the lack of patience and relative lack of power make him questionable as anything more than a 4th outfielder in the long term


             AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   HR
Projected   .294  .349  .497  .846   18 
Actual      .280  .322  .440  .762   19

In a recurring theme, Jones basically held steady instead of making real progress with his bat in 2010. Just another young hitter that is not developing much under the Oriole coaches.


             AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   HR
Projected   .301  .373  .484  .857   19 
Actual      .293  .366  .426  .791   10

Yeah, yeah...Nick is not living up to expectations. I've beat that horse enough.


             AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   HR
Projected   .289  .355  .460  .815   15 
Actual      .252  .322  .383  .706   11

This is a load of crap. Where's the Wieters we were promised? A 15.3% line drive rate? Why can't this kid drive the ball? Buck needs to fix this kid if he hopes to win in Baltimore.


             AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   HR
Projected   .259  .337  .471  .808   21 
Actual      .288  .365  .545  .910   27

The only regular to outperform expectations, Scott has put together a career year. My head says trade him, my heart says stick him at first base.


             IP     K     BB    HR    ERA
Projected   184.0  107    57    28   4.65 
Actual      201.1  114    57    25   3.98

“If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, looks like a duck, it must be a duck.” Guthrie has outperformed his projections, his FIP and his peripherals for four straight seasons. You have to accept that even though he is not the classic success story, that he is a good pitcher. He doesn't strikeout a bunch of guys, he gives up his share of homers and he doesn't get a ton of ground balls but he limits the walks and finds ways to get the opposition out.


             IP     K     BB    HR    ERA
Projected   100.0   80    38    13   4.59 
Actual      169.2  134    61    18   4.40

If you extrapolate the difference in innings, that's a pretty good projection for Matusz. The second half has certainly been encouraging.


             IP     K     BB    HR    ERA
Projected   140.0   73    43    18   4.82 
Actual      163.0   77    51    25   5.02

Fairly close for Bergesen too. Given his strong(er) second half, I like Bergy to improve on these numbers next season. He is, as he always has been, a decent looking back of the rotation starter.

No comments: