- Mr. Pink, Reservoir Dogs
Yes, Mr. Pink, some fellas are lucky. But those fellas aren't swinging bats for the Baltimore Orioles. Quite frankly, this lineup is looking more like Mr. Orange than anything else.
So I bring you the good news. The Orioles are swinging decent bats. The bad news is they are unlucky and all that good work isn't showing up in the boxscore. Using their line drive percentage thus far, I calculated an expected BABIP (adding .120 to the LD% is a quick and easy way to calculate expected BABIP) and compared it to their actual BABIP to see how good or bad things look right now among the full time players.
Name BABIP LD% xBABIP Dif Brian Roberts 0.286 26.00% 0.380 -.094 Nick Markakis 0.206 17.10% 0.291 -.085 Derrek Lee 0.259 22.00% 0.340 -.081 Luke Scott 0.250 20.60% 0.326 -.076 Mark Reynolds 0.222 14.90% 0.269 -.047 Matt Wieters 0.262 17.80% 0.298 -.036 Adam Jones 0.226 9.10% 0.211 +.015 V Guerrero 0.284 14.30% 0.263 +.021
Roberts, Markakis, Lee and Scott are getting hosed right now. Reynolds and Wieters are slightly unlucky. The good news is if they keep hitting the ball hard, those BABIP numbers will regress to the mean (around .300 for most hitters) and those offensive numbers will improve.
Jones and Guerrero are another matter. Jones truly is hitting just as poorly as his batting line looks. And Vlad? He's been the luckiest guy on the team and is still just OPSing .663. Hoo boy.
But overall, it looks like the offense will see better days. They just have to keep hitting the ball hard...and hit 'em where they ain't.