Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Fearless Predictions Revisited

Where I take another look at what I predicted back in March...

If Brian Roberts plays in 130 games, I'm going with 80 wins. If he ends up on the DL, 76 wins.

This one remains to be seen but Roberts has stayed healthy thus far and the team is only 2 games under .500.

Zach Britton wins the AL Rookie of the Year. Yeah, Jeremy Hellickson is the odds on favorite but I think Britton comes up on the outside and catches him.

This one looks way better than it did in March. He is probably ahead of Hellickson but Seattle's Michael Pineda probably edges out Britton at this point with his eye-popping strikeout total.

Adam Jones breaks out this season. A mild breakout, something like a .295/.340/.450. 20 home runs. But a breakout nonetheless.

As discussed yesterday, Jones is hitting .283/.335/.441 and is on a pace for 20 home runs. He's not there yet but he's pretty close.

I can't predict playing time but Nolan Reimold will finish the season with a higher OPS than Vladimir Guerrero. So will Luke Scott.

Not yet...not yet. But Luke Scott is ahead of Vlad...for now.

Jeremy Guthrie will, once again, have an ERA lower than his FIP. Probably significantly so.

Guthrie's FIP is 4.64 and his ERA is 3.98. On target.

Nick Markakis will hit 40 doubles. Again. Also will have at least a .360 OBP.

Only 4 doubles and a .311 OBP so far. A loooonnngg way to go.

Matt Wieters hits 15 home runs. Anything else he does is anybody's guess.

He's on a pace for 16 homers and has become one of the better defensive catchers in the league.

Luke Scott will OPS north of .850.

He's OPSing .766 and has a hurt shoulder. This one is not looking good.

Josh Rupe doesn't see May 15th in Baltimore. He sees it from Norfolk.

Rupe was sent to Norfolk on May 10th.

Zach Britton is in Baltimore before May 15th.

He was in Baltimore before April 15th.

JJ Hardy will be a fan favorite by June 1st.

I think this is a fait accompli.

Matt Albers will outperform most of the Oriole pen while pitching for Boston.

Albers has a 1.65 ERA over 11 games and good peripherals. Nobody in the Oriole 'pen looks better

Mark Hendrickson ends up playing a large role in the Oriole season. Take that as you will.

Hendrickson has not been good in Norfolk but as bad as the rest of the bullpen has been, he'll get a shot soon and he'll probably stick.

Mark Reynolds hits 30 homers and has 200 Ks.

Reynolds is on pace to strikeout only 170 times but only 20 homers. Long way to go to reach those numbers.

1 comment:

Jeff said...

I hope they call up Patton before Hendrickson. Also, call me crazy but I'd take Britton's lower ERA over Pineda's Ks (especially looking at the competition they've played).