2010 Chone vs 2010 Results

I took a look back at some of the CHONE projections for some of the key players from your 2010 Baltimore Orioles and compared them with the actual numbers and added a few thoughts.

Wigginton

             AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   HR
Projected   .271  .326  .451  .777   17
Actual      .254  .319  .426  .745   22

I thought the projection for Ty looked a bit optimistic and it turned out that it was. Those aren't bad numbers for a bench/platoon type though. If the Orioles could bring him back next year in that role, I wouldn't be opposed. In the field he is a jack-of-all-trades but master of none type but he is a capable sub around the infield and as a corner outfielder.

Izturis

             AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   HR
Projected   .255  .301  .334  .635    2
Actual      .236  .282  .275  .557    1

Izzy came in well under even the paltry projections. You have to wonder if the glove is good enough to justify the weak bat. I love having a guy out there who is going to catch the ball, I just don't know if it's worth the drawbacks at the plate.

Pie

             AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   HR
Projected   .273  .332  .435  .767   10 
Actual      .271  .303  .399  .703    5

Man, I like Felix Pie but are these the numbers you wanted to see from him in 2010. He was injured but the lack of patience and relative lack of power make him questionable as anything more than a 4th outfielder in the long term

Jones

             AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   HR
Projected   .294  .349  .497  .846   18 
Actual      .280  .322  .440  .762   19

In a recurring theme, Jones basically held steady instead of making real progress with his bat in 2010. Just another young hitter that is not developing much under the Oriole coaches.

Markakis

             AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   HR
Projected   .301  .373  .484  .857   19 
Actual      .293  .366  .426  .791   10

Yeah, yeah...Nick is not living up to expectations. I've beat that horse enough.

Wieters

             AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   HR
Projected   .289  .355  .460  .815   15 
Actual      .252  .322  .383  .706   11

This is a load of crap. Where's the Wieters we were promised? A 15.3% line drive rate? Why can't this kid drive the ball? Buck needs to fix this kid if he hopes to win in Baltimore.

Scott

             AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   HR
Projected   .259  .337  .471  .808   21 
Actual      .288  .365  .545  .910   27

The only regular to outperform expectations, Scott has put together a career year. My head says trade him, my heart says stick him at first base.

Guthrie

             IP     K     BB    HR    ERA
Projected   184.0  107    57    28   4.65 
Actual      201.1  114    57    25   3.98

“If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, looks like a duck, it must be a duck.” Guthrie has outperformed his projections, his FIP and his peripherals for four straight seasons. You have to accept that even though he is not the classic success story, that he is a good pitcher. He doesn't strikeout a bunch of guys, he gives up his share of homers and he doesn't get a ton of ground balls but he limits the walks and finds ways to get the opposition out.

Matusz

             IP     K     BB    HR    ERA
Projected   100.0   80    38    13   4.59 
Actual      169.2  134    61    18   4.40

If you extrapolate the difference in innings, that's a pretty good projection for Matusz. The second half has certainly been encouraging.

Bergesen

             IP     K     BB    HR    ERA
Projected   140.0   73    43    18   4.82 
Actual      163.0   77    51    25   5.02

Fairly close for Bergesen too. Given his strong(er) second half, I like Bergy to improve on these numbers next season. He is, as he always has been, a decent looking back of the rotation starter.

Preseason Predictions Revisited

As the season heads into its final week, it seemed like a good time to revisit my preseason predictions. As it turns out, they were fairly optimistic so they were also largely wrong. Here we go.

* Garrett Atkins won't be a regular with this team by June 15th. Somebody has to come to their senses. Nice clutch hitting in Tampa but that can't last.

Done and done. He was released before the end of June.

* Nick Markakis...breakout! Enos Slaughter for the new millennium. I recycling this from last season.

Yeah. Maybe someday but I'm done expecting anything more than average production from Nick at this point. Wrong.

* Brian Matusz....breakout! Don't be surprised if Matusz is having Tim Lincecum-type success (without the gawdy strikeout totals...but damn good ones) by the second half of the season.

Second half stats from Matusz and Lincecum over their first full season:

K/9    BB/9    K/BB   WHIP   HR   ERA
Matusz         7.0     3.2    2.19   1.30    8  4.27
Lincecum       8.6     4.0    2.15   1.30    5  3.38

Matusz has certainly improved as the season has gone along but not quite to the level I had expected. Close though. The walks are down, the strikeouts are up. Things are moving in the right direction.

* Matt Wieters...breakout! I'm going with the Keith Law prediction of "well over .300 with 20-25 homers" for his sophomore season.

Really wrong on this one. Wieters has actually taken a step back. Not a good sign.

* Adam Jones....no breakout! It would be hard to call this a breakout since he was pretty good last year but I expect that this is the year Jones starts to show people that Adrian Gonzalez is not necessary because the Orioles already have a bat as good in centerfield. Look for an average around .300 with something approaching 25 homers.

Not exactly. If you take away his hideous April, he looks like a guy who can hit at those levels. But he has basically held steady on his production from last year. Wrong.

* 80 wins. That's my guess. And with a little luck...you never know.

You wonder what would have happened if Buck Showalter was managing back in April. But the Orioles were lucky to avoid 100 losses. Wrong, wrong, wrong.

* Ben McDonald becomes a surprise hit on MASN.

He's been fine but no better than Brady Anderson.

* Kevin Millwood 2010 = Rick Sutcliffe 1992

It started out that way but certainly didn't end up there. Sutcliffe finished 1992 with 3.1 WAR for the Orioles. Millwood has 0.9 WAR. Millwood almost met the minimal expectations: league average pitching and eating innings. He pitched 180+ innings, which was good, but a 5.29 ERA is only good for an ERA+ of 80, which is not so good. Wrong.

* Felix Pie forces something this summer...a trade, a position change....something.

Pie has kind of made himself the forerunner for the LF job in 2011 since his return from injury earlier in the season. But a batting line of .274/.304/.401 isn't going to lock it down for him. Thus, I doubt the team makes any moves assuming that Pie will be the man. Not so much on this one.

That was kind of depressing. Anyone ready for 2011?

Nick Markakis and Arbitrary Standards

I'm not above beating a dead horse. This blurb from Phil Rogers column in the Baltimore Sun just got to me...

The Orioles' Nick Markakis remains one of the best hitters no one notices. He entered the weekend with 43 doubles, making him only the third player in history to have four consecutive seasons of at least 43 doubles. The other two were Joe Medwick and Tris Speaker.


OK. On the surface that seems kind of impressive, accomplishing something that only two other players have done in the entire history of baseball and keeping some company with Hall of Famers while you're at it.


But a closer look shows otherwise. A cumulative comparison of the four consecutive seasons of 43 doubles or more for each player:

                    AVG    OBP   SLG   OPS+   2B   HR
Markakis '07-'10   .297   .370  .462   120   180   71
Speaker  '20-'23   .377   .467  .578   169   209   39 
Medwick  '35-'38   .351   .390  .583   158   213   93

And their numbers through the end of their age 26 season:

             AVG    OBP   SLG   OPS+   2B   HR
Markakis    .296   .367  .460   118   205   87
Speaker     .340   .413  .494   168   216   39 
Medwick     .338   .373  .560   147   305  131

You can make the case that Markakis is an underrated hitter but not because he hit a bunch of doubles. Speaker and Medwick were on another level when it came to hitting. Markakis brings one aspect of their game but is not the superior hitter that these guys were. Comparing Nick to those guys because of some arbitrary numbers is misguided and an incomplete assessment of his abilities.

I think there is an "Emperor's New Clothes" syndrome when it comes to local writers and fans assessing Nick's true worth. He certainly was one of the more underrated hitters in the game but coming off what is arguably his weakest offensive season, he has become overrated instead. Decent hitter. Not a great one.

Around the Oriole Blog-O-Sphere: Spoiler Alert Edition

Brooks Robinson's career nearly spoiled in Vancouver? Read the true story here!

If you're going to bunt, at least be good at it. Roar from 34 tries to identify the best bunters in Baltimore.

Some guy wrote a Dear John letter to the Baltimore Orioles over at Yahoo Sports.

Hot off his victory against Boston, Expatriate (Baltimore Sports Report) ponders the second-half resurgence of Brad Bergesen.

Funniest. Post. Ever.

Neal S of The Loss Column ponders the strangeness of facing the Red Sox in late September with nothing for Baltimore to spoil.

Forget playing spoiler. Patrick Smith at Bugs & Cranks believes the Orioles have finally come into their own. Almost.

Paul Swaney of Stadium Journey recently reviewed Harbor Park, home of the Norfolk Tides. If you enjoyed that one, he's also reviewed Camden Yards, Harry Grove Stadium (home of the Frederick Keys) and Prince Georges Stadium (home of the Bowie Baysox).

On a subject that is close to my heart, The Oriole Way presents his review of new beer bar Alewife...one that happens to be less than half a mile from Gate H at Camden Yards.

The Eutaw Street Hooligans honor Nick Markakis for being only the third player in MLB history to hit 43 doubles for four straight seasons.

Wrapping Up Jake Arrieta

Hi there. Miss me?

The Orioles have shut down Jake Arrieta for the rest of the season as a precautionary measure for a bone spur. Now that his season's over let's take a closer look at it.

               IP    K   BB   HR   ERA   FIP   BB/9  K/9  K/BB
Arrieta '10  100.1  52   48    9  4.66  4.78   4.66 4.31  1.08

The big problem for Arrieta here is the high number of walks, which until recently, outnumbered the strikeouts. His control is an issue and always has been. (He walked 4.19 per 9 in Norfolk too...) His rate of walks for Baltimore would put him dead last in baseball if it qualified and pitchers don't survive that kind of wildness. That will have to improve if he is to have long term success.

However, putting up an ERA near league average is pretty good and the FIP supports that. He only gave up 9 homers for a .81 HR/9 which is a very good sign. And I think his stuff is such that he can get that K/9 rate up over 7, at least.

And in September, a funny thing happened. Arrieta started throwing strikes.

                 IP    K    BB    HR    ERA    FIP    BB/9    K/9    K/BB
Arrieta Sept.   17.1  13     2     1   2.60   2.86   1.04    6.75    6.50

It was only three starts and it would have been nice to see Arrieta make a couple more starts. (Although, Arrieta was up over 174 innings pitched this season; it's likely he would have been shut down, bone spur or not.) But that's a nice little blip that gives you some hope that Jake is capable of overcoming his wildness and that his stuff can play at the highest level. And if he can do that, he will be a big part of the short and long term success of the Baltimore Orioles.

What the Hell is Wrong with Nick Markakis?

One thing has been lost in all this winning of late is the fact that, very quietly, Nick Markakis is having a pretty poor year.

Since his age 24 season, here's some of his rate stats:

              AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   ISO   BABIP
2008         .306  .406  .491  .897  .185   .350
2009         .293  .347  .453  .801  .160   .317
2010         .289  .367  .423  .790  .134   .325

As many of you know, after that 2008 season, I was predicting big things for Nick. Here was a guy who nearly OPSed .900 at the age of 24 and was heading into his mid and late 20's, what are typically considered a player's peak season. But he has regressed. A lot.

The power numbers are the most striking. I was never a guy who thought Markakis would be a guy who would hit 30 homers a season but I did expect 20-25 with a bunch of doubles. With the crazy onbase skills, that was a guy who could have been a borderline star level rightfielder.

Instead, he is OPSing .790 and even in this season with reduced offensive levels, is a mediocrity at the plate among baseball's rightfielders.I never thought I'd see the day when Nick would be posting a sub-.800 OPS for a season but he's well on his way. On top of that, he has been below average in the field the last two season when examined with various metrics. What the hell happened?

The walk rate is still in the double digits so that's fine. But he has lost points on his batting average and taken a plummet with his power. His BABIP is at career norms so he is not unlucky.

But the big drop is his power. While he's hit a few more groundballs than normal this year, his HR/F% stands at 5.3%, down from 8.0% in 2009 and down from double digits during his first three seasons. With fewer homers, his ISO is down for three straight years, as well as his slugging.

Nick's power is gone, folks. I'm not sure why but he's now clearly a punch-and-judy type with some gap power. He's not a bad player but he's certainly not great one.

Has Matt Albers Turned a Corner?

Orioles fans are wondering if Matt Albers, based on his last few outings, has finally turned himself into a decent relief pitcher.

I was strongly on the Albers bandwagon at the beginning of the season but have since jumped off. My analysis at this point is that while Albers has very good stuff, he can't throw it for strikes. When he takes a little off to improve his control, he's very hittable. That's not a winning combination.

But let's take a closer look at Albers' recent success:

                   IP    K   BB   HR    ERA   BABIP
Albers Apr-Jun    33.2  18   19    6   5.61   .277
Albers Jul-Sep    32.1  24   13    0   2.51   .261

OK, the peripherals in terms of strikeout to walk ratio are not great but otherwise, those are pretty good numbers for the second half of the season. There were some theories that Albers was overworked earlier in the season but that does not appear to be the case; he has actually worked more during his stretch of good pitching.

In April, May and June, Albers never had a FIP below 5.50. Since, his FIP hasn't risen above 3.10.

Yes, the 0% homerun rate is unsustainable but he's always been an extreme groundball pitcher and doesn't give up a lot of home runs anyway (which is why I liked him). His issue has always been the walks and the relatively low strikeout rate.

Can he keep throwing strikes? I am suspect at this point; every time I think he's starting to get it, he implodes. But if he can, he'll be a pretty good pitcher. As we have seen, he's been more than serviceable over the second half. If he keeps the walks down, he's an extreme groundball, decent strikeout pitcher. That's a valuable guy to have in the bullpen.

Now we'll see if he can keep it up for the rest of the season. I cautiously step aboard the bandwagon again...

Around the Orioles Blog-O-Sphere: F**k Your Yankee Blue Jeans Edition

Quick Fact: Since August 1st, the Orioles are 21-14. The Yankees are 20-16 over that same stretch.

Baltimore Sports Report takes a look at the series win against the Yanks and tries to figure out how the Orioles are managing their recent success.

To join the People's Front of Baltimore, you've got to really love the Eutaw Street Chronicles.

Baltimore Sports and Life figures the Most Valuable Oriole has to be either Jeremy Guthrie or Luke Scott and wonders if either may be trade bait over the winter.

As Buck Showalter passed 900 career wins as a manager, Weaver's Tantrum breaks down career wins for other Oriole managers.

Camden Chat runs through "Birds Up, O's Down" for the past week. Not surprisingly, most are up!

Wayward O takes a look at Brian Matusz' new tattoos. Also takes a closer look at Nyjer Morgan.

Alfredo Simon: Rocket Launcher

Early last month, spurred on by a Twitter discussion with Dan from Camden Crazies, I wrote a post about Alfredo Simon and tried to figure out what kind of pitcher he really was. Dan did the same. What did we learn?

I learned that Simon is a groundball/strikeout pitcher who happens to give up a lot of home runs. (With as many homers as he gave up,I had assumed he was more of a groundball pitcher.) Dan thought that Simon's HR rate was a more a product of bad luck than his true tendencies. I disagreed, started writing a follow up, got distracted and never finished it up.

Less than a month, three homers and yet another Twitter argument with Dan later, here's a closer look at the home runs given up by  Alfredo Simon this season, minus the homer he surrendered last night. From HitTrackerOnline.com:

Using Hit Tracker's classifications, of the 8 homers surrendered, 4 were No Doubts, 1 was a Plenty, 2 we Just Enoughs and one was a Plenty but Lucky. Now, the Lucky home runs are going to happen to every pitcher but even if we take that one away, that's still a lot of home runs.

Dan has stated that, with a home run per fly ball rate of 20%, Simon's rate of giving up home runs is unsustainable and that he will regress more to the mean. My contention is that while he may not sustain a 20% rate, he may be a guy who has a HR/FB rate that sits in the high teens because he may be an outlier. Why do I say that?

I agree with Dan in general that a guy with a ground ball rate approaching 50% and a decent strikeout rate is not likely to give up a lot of home runs. However, given the data from Hit Tracker, it appears that Simon's home run rate is not just a product of bad luck alone...he's really getting hit.

Secondly, he doesn't give up a lot of flyballs being a groundball pitcher, so each home run he gives up moves the needle more than it normally would. For example, he has given up 45 fly ball and 9 homers for  a 20% HR/FB rate. Take away the "lucky" shot he gave up to Paul Konerko and that's at 17.8%. That's a 2.2% move on one homer. (But it's still a really high percentage, even if it's not 20%)

Thirdly, most guys who give up home runs at his rate don't get to hang around long enough to maintain a 20% home run rate; they get released. Or sent back to AAA. Simon remains based on his strong start and the fact that the Orioles aren't contending anyway.

I think Simon is an outlier: a groundball pitcher who gives up a bunch of home runs on the occasions that the opposing batters happen to get the ball in the air.

I went back and looked at Pitch FX data and watched video of every home run Simon gave up this year.
Simon has given up 8 of his 9 homers to right handed hitters. Four of the nine homers were on balls in the upper quarter of the strikezone. Seven of them were balls in the upper half of the strikezone. Seven of them were also fastballs.

It's like this: Simon, while having good groundball tendencies, has very hittable stuff up in the zone. And when it gets hit, by a righthanded hitter, up in the zone, the odds are pretty good that it will end up in the seats.

Now this doesn't mean that Simon can't be a decent middle reliever. The real troubling thing about Simon has been his walk rate this season. A reliever with a decent walk rate who is homer prone can still be effective. Combining a penchant for long flies with a 4.14 BB/9 is not the recipe for success.

But make no mistake, the homers will continue, with a HR/FB rate in the high teens or more. The only remedy for it could be improved control.

Matt Garza to the Orioles: "I'm Going to Shove It Down Your Throat"

Britt Ghiroli highlights Rays pitcher Matt Garza's comments to the St. Petersburg Times regarding his start against the Orioles on Friday:

"I owe them a lot of payback for the type of outing I had last time against them," he said to the paper. "They had back-to-back-to-back. So I'm going to make them feel really uncomfortable in the box. So they know, this (stuff) doesn't happen, so don't get used to it.

"I'm going to go in there, hair on fire, like I have been and go after them and say, 'Hey, you got me the first time, well I'm going to shove it down your throat this time.' "

Well, at least he gave us a heads up. First, to the fans. We should definitely watch this game tonight...could get interesting. And the umpires, who should issue a warning to Garza before the game even starts. And his teammates who now have to worry about retaliation. It's a nice bit of bravado to motivate yourself but not the smartest thing to say pre-game. You have also just thrown down the gauntlet to Kevin Millwood who, if he has anything left at all, will now leave it all on the field tonight to outduel Garza.

More quotes from the St. Petersburg Times:

Garza said the key has been staying with his mentality of "staying with my heater until they beat it."

Garza strayed from that plan for a stretch earlier this season, but it was out of necessity.

Well, a quick look at that game in Baltimore where Luke Scott, Ty Wigginton and Adam Jones hit back-to-back-to-back home runs show that Scott homered off a fastball, Wigginton did the same and then Jones hit one on a slider.

And it's not as if the Orioles have not hit well against the best pitchers in the AL this season. Just ask Cliff Lee.

So c'mon meat, show us that million dollar arm. 'Cause I've got a good idea about the 5 cent head of yours.

Beer at the Ballpark: Camden Yards, Baltimore

Baltimore has a long brewing tradition and Camden Yards makes a small nod to that by offering "Old Line Microbrew" kiosks offering better beer throughout the ballpark. There are two kiosks of this type on the main concourse and I spotted one way up in the concourse for the cheap seats; they are all basically the same. They offer local brews in the form of Heavy Seas Classic Lager, Falmouth Copper Ale, Flying Dog Old Scratch IPA and the imported Heineken. At some of these kiosks the selection is expanded to include Guinness, Smithwick's and Harp lager.

The prices are steep, $7.50 for a 16oz pour but considering the park is charging $7.25 for 16oz of Bud Light, it's a relative value. There is also a Blue Moon kiosk on the main concourse behind the home plate area, same price and a better option than Miller Lite.

In the luxury box section there are taps for Stella Artois and Samuel Adams Boston Lager at the various bars.



There are a lot of great beers brewed in Baltimore and Maryland in general and it would be great to see more of them represented at the park but there are some quality brews to choose from.

Now, if you are looking for a great beer experience before (or after) the game, just a block from the stadium is the Pratt Street Alehouse, specializing in English-style ales including three varieties on cask. The prices are good, the beer is great and its proximity to the ballpark make it a must stop if you are a lover of fine ale.

Did the Orioles Sink the Red Sox Back in May?

Yesterday I posted a blurb about how the Orioles dealt a death blow to the Angels season and wondered if they might do the same thing to the Red Sox this month. According to the Boston Herald's John Tomase, maybe they did it back in May when they swept the Sox in a three-game set at Camden Yards:

The Red Sox actually began that series on a bit of a roll. They had won 5-of-6 and were coming off a three-game sweep in Toronto that perhaps spoke more to the Blue Jays’ early-season ineptitude against the Sox than anything the visitors had done.

At 11-11, the Red Sox had finally returned to .500 for the first time since 4-4. They already trailed the Tampa Bay Rays by 5 games in the AL East and didn’t want to risk falling any further behind.

The Orioles appeared to be the perfect foes. Baltimore was just 4-18 and in the process of costing manager Dave Trembley his job....

The Red Sox have righted the ship since that 11-14 start, but not enough to seriously reinsert themselves into the playoff race. For that fading goal to have any semblance of hope, they’ll need to do a lot better with the Orioles, who are 16-10 since Buck Showalter took over as manager (Trembley was replaced for a time by Juan Samuel), this week than they did in the spring.

Remember the Mother's Day Massacre from 2007? Of course you do. Lost in all the misery of the losing earlier in 2010 is the fact that we have given the Red Sox their own heartburn, a series they refer to as The Lost Weekend, a time where their playoff-contending momentum was derailed by a wretched, demoralized Baltimore club.

If the Red Sox had swept the Orioles that weekend (as many clubs were doing at that point), they would be 4 games back instead of the 7 they find themselves now. Still a tough hill to climb but 7 games looked nearly insurmountable now, especially given who they are chasing.

If they lose this series to the Orioles, they could find themselves as much as 9-10 games back. Season over. Here's hoping the Orioles oblige them.

Orioles Dash Angels Playoff Hopes...Who's Next?

The Angels entered the weekend 9.5 games behind the Rangers for the AL West title and with, by record, the worst team in the American League coming to town. They and their fans were still deluding themselves about this being the beginning of a run at a playoff spot.

They can't be thinking that now. Over a weekend where they could have made up some ground on the Rangers, they scored one run all sereies, got swept and now sit 10.5 games behind the Rangers with 31 games to go in 2010. Season over, courtesy of the Baltimore Orioles.

Red Sox fans are just as delusional. They really think that they can still catch the Yankees and/or the Rays even though they are 5.5 games back with 31 to go. That's a lot to overcome barring a collapse by one of those teams  which is highly unlikely because those teams are both pretty damn good.

Can the Orioles have an impact on the playoff race? Probably not a big one. But with 6 games against the Red Sox in September, they can certainly squash any hope Boston has for a postseason berth.

Eulogy for Bluefield

Andy MacPhail has announced that next year the Bluefield Orioles will be no more. From a development standpoint, this will not have a huge impact of the Baltimore Orioles. If they maintain the rest of their minor league teams, they will still have 8, which is plenty.


But from a historical perspective, it's a sad decision. The Orioles have had a 53-year partnership with Bluefield and a ton of Baltimore Orioles started their career in southern West Virginia including Cal Ripken, Jr., Eddie Murray, Boog Powell and Don Baylor. That's the oldest minor league affiliation in baseball and now it will be gone. They won nine Appalachian League championships as an Oriole affiliate. Joe Altobelli managed there as well.


This too shall pass and the Orioles will move on. But the end of this historic relationship deserves a bit more than flippant comments like this:


Yes, Bluefield and the Orioles had plenty of history. But it is tough to get too worked up about this one.


Wow, Dan Connolly, really? There was obviously more to his post but this comment pretty much sums up the tone. Bluefield deserves more than casual dismissal. I get that a lot of fans (or writers) don't care about the minor leagues or team history and Connolly is an MLB writer who, he admits, has never been to Bluefield. But I would expect more historical awareness from a Baltimore native.


I finally got out to Bluefield this summer but the game got rained out. I managed to snap a few pictures of the stadium and stand on the historic field. I am very bummed that I never got to see a game there but was happy I got to visit this little piece of Orioles history. Here's the pics of Bowen Field from this past July:

Ballpark Hazards:Beware the Moldy Hot Dog Buns

Saturday night this tweet and attached picture came across my feed in TweetDeck:

Pretty vile, no? I can't ever remember seeing something like that in 20+ years of attending baseball games.

This could have been a black eye for the concession staff at Nationals Park but they turned it into a positive. When I contacted @wikipublius for a followup, he stated that when they pointed the problem out to the person at the concession, they were given a replacement dog and a free beer. No excuses, just apologies and an immediate attempt to make it right.

So while the Nats could probably use a bit better quality control for their food service, they certainly made up for it with customer service. wikipublius also wanted to give the food at Nationals Park one more positive comment: the variety of food offered is much better than the concessions at Camden Yards.

Stealing Signs: A Study of Pie

Mark Buerhle accused Felix Pie of stealing signs last night.

Quite frankly, that's just fine with me. Baltimore still has marginal talent and still could use every edge they can get to win games.

But Pie was only on second base (the traditional place a runner needs to be to steal signs), and that was during a Cesar Izturis groundout in the 6th.

Maybe Buerhle thoughtt he team was stealing signs all game. Maybe but every hit of consequence for the O's came with nobody on second. Matt Wieters doubled in Pie in the 5th but Pie was on first. Runners were on first and third when Corey Patterson singled to drive in Wieters later that inning. It was the same in the 6th when Wieters his a sac fly to plate Ty Wigginton and there was nobody on when Brian Roberts hit his solo shot in the 7th.

It is rare for hitters to steal signs from first base (although not unheard of) but even if Baltimore was stealing signs, it doesn't appear to by why they got the big hits on Wednesday night.

Who(Cares Who')'s the Closer?

That is a confusing title, huh?

But it's not nearly as confusing as all the ink and pixels being wasted on the conjecture over who is the Orioles' closer. Because the bottom line is this: it doesn't matter. At all.

In the 22 games that Buck has been in charge (and there has been no designated "closer"), the Orioles have only blown one "save" situation. Buck has stated he cares far more about the win than the save but the Orioles have been winning and have racked up four saves with the unspoken "closer by committee".

Sure, maybe if this team had a Mariano Rivera or a Trevor Hoffman, maybe you go with a set closer and build the other bullpen roles around him. But the Orioles don't have a guy like that on this team. Why not let the situation dictate the guy called upon to close out a game?

This is not a new concept. Before Gregg Olson showed up in 1989, the "closer" for the Orioles was usually a team of two, a lefty and a righty. Occasionally, there would be a third guy grabbing a few saves too. Would it be so crazy to go into 2011 with Mike Gonazalez and Alfredo Simon (or Jim Johnson) as your lefty/righty team of "closers"? It's not an unprecedented solution.

I don't believe you have to have some magic skill to come in for the 9th inning and preserve a three-run lead. Let's stop worrying about who gets an arbitrary title and worry about the performance of the bullpen overall.

How Nick Got Caught Looking

In this past Saturday's game, Nick Markakis struck out looking against Cliff Lee. That was the fourth straight time that he had struck out looking.

It is not surprising that Nick has never struck out looking four times in a row before. He possesses one of the best eyes in baseball. It's shocking that is ever happened at all.

So how did this rare event come to be? Was Nick justified in ripping the ump the night he was tossed from the game? With PitchFx, we can find out.

Starting with his first at bat against C.J. Wilson on Friday night:

Wilson struck out Markakis with a two-seam fastball but all three strikes he got on Nick were good pitches, away, but in the strikezone.

At bat #2:

This time, Wilson went in, out, in, out and then in the zone away to get the called strike three. Good pitching from Wilson as he changed locations and froze Nick with another two-seam fast ball low and away in the zone.

At bat #3:

This was the at bat where Nick got thrown out. But Markakis has a great argument here as none of the pitches were in the zone. Pitch number three was borderline but all are clearly outside the zone. Nick was right, this should have been a walk.

The next day, his first at bat against Cliff Lee:

Hmmmm...a little payback for going after the umpire the night before? Lee was surgical with his strikes but the second pitch and the the final pitch were off the plate. Nick probably had to bite his tongue hard after this at bat.

Don't expect to see this phenomenon again anytime soon. Nick was a victim of good pitching for two of these K's but also the victim of some really bad calls on the other two. Again, if you were watching the Orioles over the weekend, you saw a rare sight.

Corey Patterson

Corey Patterson has been, thankfully, relegated (mostly) back to the bench with the return of Felix Pie in late June. Patterson was a desprerate move and although he filled the hole in the outfield better than could have been expected, Patterson is not a starter, not even for a team as bad as the Orioles.

But I didn't come to run down Corey Patterson and point out his obvious deficiencies. I was to talk about Patterson's value as a bench player.

Patterson is not the same player that left Baltimore after the 2007 season. His hack-tastic ways are still evident but not nearly at the levels we have seen over his career.

            Swing%   K%    BB%   
Career       54.7   22.4  4.7
2010         51.3   23.3  6.9
  

He's swinging less and walking more. Again, this doesn't representa quantum leap forward but a very noticeable and real improvement. As a result, his wOBA sits at .347, second only to his impressive partial 2003 season.

He can steal you a base, serve as a pinch runner and can play all three outfield positions. I can't imagine there will be a lot of bidding for Patterson's services and there is no other outfielder in the minors knocking on the door to Baltimore*. Is it crazy to think that Patterson would make a useful 4th outfielder? If he comes at a reasonable price, this may not be the last you see of Corey Patterson.

* Yes, Nolan Reimold is in Norfolk but his future is at 1B/DH for this team. I'm not counting him.

Live Blogging: Rangers @ Orioles - 8/21/10

2:57 We're going to try live blogging for the first time. Since this is my first time in the Baltimore press box, it seemed appropriate. Not much to report on except for batting practice at this point where Vlad Guerrero has been putting on a show. More to come...

3:19 The story tonight will be all about Rangers ace Cliff Lee. He is arguably the best pitcher in the American League and the Orioles are only OPSing .639 against lefties in 2010. Every run will come at a premium and Baltimore will have to hope that Brad Bergesen is able to continue his recent stretch of good starts to keep them in the game.

3:56 It a fair crowd tonight and people are still filing in. It's a muggy and still afternoon, can't imagine the ball will be carrying too well tonight. That's good news for Brad Bergesen.

A bit of a lineup shakeup for the Birds...Luke Scott is in the starting lineup but not batting cleanup for the first time in over a month. Wigginton will bat cleanup with Scott in the 5 hole.

4:13 An efficient first inning for Bergey. 9 pitches to retire the side in order in the top of the first. He struck out Andrus swinging, gave up a liner up the middle to Young and then got Hamilton to ground into a 6-4-3 double play. He's pounding the strike zone and that's a good thing.

Lee has bounced a couple warmup pitches...maybe he'll be wild tonight? Nah...

4:33 Nick Markakis struck out looking in the bottom of the 1st. That means he has struck out looking 4 straight times.

A quick check show that he had never struck out looking 3 times in a game before last night so the odds are good that he has never done it 4 times in a row! Crazy.

4:44 Lee and Bergesen are both cruising. Bergey just retired the Rangers 1-2-3 on 10 pitches in the top of the 3rd. 5 of his 9 outs have started with a grounder to Lugo at short. It's not a bad formula.

Lee was no-hitting the O's but Pie just singled on a sharp grounder up the middle.

4:52 I just saw Josh Bell's first career home run. It was an 0-1 pitch that Bell put in the centerfield seats. There was no dbout about it, it looked gone as soon as he hit it. The Orioles have Lee on the ropes, 2-0 in the bottom of the 3rd.

5:01 Bergey gave it up in the top of the 4th. Guerrero doubled in Josh Hamilton and would eventually score on a Bengie Molina sac fly to Adam Jones. Knotted at 2.

Josh Bell fun fact: That HR off Cliff Lee is only his 4th off a left handed pitcher in the last 4 seasons. Any level.

5:15 The Orioles took the lead back in a big way in the bottom of the 4th. Three homers including back-to-back solo jacks from Wigginton and Scott and a three-run shot from 3B Josh Bell, his 2nd of the game and his career. None were cheapies.

The Orioles are all over Cliff Lee and have handed Bergey a commanding 7-2 lead to start the 5th. Brad's only thrown 44 pitches so a good chance to go deep in the game and get the win.

5:28 That could have been much worse. The Rangers load the bases with 1 out but only get a single run to cut the Baltimore lead to 7-3. 22 pitches in that inning for Bergesen.

5:50 Bergesen is through 6 innings and only at 79 pitches. Lee is back out for the bottom of the 6th.

Last inning, Luke Scott fouled a ball back into the press box, just in front of me and to the right. It hit a laptop bag and bounced back into the stands. No damage as far as I can tell.

5:58 Josh Bell just missed his third home run as he lines one off the rightfield fence. Couldn't have missed it by more than a foot.

Roberts missed a double down the leftfield line (it was foul), then walked.

Lee has been lifted for Scott Feldman. Lee gives up 7 earned....so far.

6:05 Feldman promptly threw a wild pitch allowing the runners to advance, then Lugo legs out an infield single allowing Bell to score from 3rd.

O's lead the mighty Rangers 8-3.

6:13 The few Ranger fans that came out today seem to be filing out of the stadium. Cliff Lee gave up 8 earned runs, tying a career high.

The few that remained saw Josh Hamilton hit a 2 out, 2-run hiomer to center. That makes it an 8-5 Oriole lead and Mike Gonzalez is up in the bullpen.

Bergesen retires Vlad to end the 7th. This one's not over yet.

6:26 RP Michael Kirkman makes his major league debut for the Rangers and strikes out the side. Wiggy swinging, Scott looking and Jones swinging. O's still lead 8-5 after 7.

Mike Gonzalez coming in to pitch for the Orioles in the 8th.

6:38 Gonzalez promptly gives up a double to David Murphy on the first pitch, then retires Molina on a fly abll to Pie. Mitch Moreland then doubled in Murphy when Adam Jones dove for the liner but could not come up with it.

It looked like Jones was injured and was slow to get up but he just broke his belt. He was given and replacement and headed back out to centerfield.

Gonzo then struck out Andres Blanco and Brandon Boggs to get out of the jam. 8-6 Orioles.

6:49 O's could not add to their lead. Craig Tatum struck out looking for the third time tonight and Josh Bell could work no more magic. Koji Uehara is coming in to protect the 2-run lead and earn the Orioles at least a series split.

6:57 Koji saves the game in the 9th, striking out Vlad to finish the game.

The crowd was electric in the 9th this evening, on their feet screaming and shouting I haven't seen that kind of excitement at the Yard (at least, not in person) in years.

I started out the game thinking Cliff Lee would be the story, turned out to be Josh Bell. A coming out party or a flash of brilliance? These last 6 weeks of the season may tell us.