The Saddest State of Affairs

OK, I'm going to be way out on an island, all by myself, with this opinion. I'm going to be far more alone than any of my opinions on Vladimir Guerrero.

I am not happy that the Orioles knocked the Red Sox from the playoffs last night.

Hear me out...

Firstly, last night was an incredible night of baseball. Putting on my MLB fan and amateur baseball analyst hats, it was amazing to behold. But as an Oriole fan, I couldn't get caught up in the big game atmosphere.

What was in it for the Orioles exactly? They were essentially deciding which of our AL East rivals made the playoffs. And we all got excited about that? Again, as a baseball fan, amazing stuff. As an Oriole fan...what do we take away from that? It's like sitting on the floor and begging for the scraps of Boston and Tampa's big game moment. This was not a big game for the Orioles. The difference between 68 and 69 wins is absolutely nothing. We were just living vicariously through good teams. And I couldn't help but being a little depressed by that state of affairs.

This is all we got out of it: Boston fans are obnoxious and we got to send them home with their tails between their legs. A short term thrill, I'm sure. "Yeah, Boston! This is our house! We ended your season! We get the last word for a change!" Awesome.

But even if you cared one way or another how the Rays/Sox playoff race turned out, I would make the argument that Oriole fans should have preferred Boston in the playoffs.

The knee-jerk reaction to the Red Sox collapse is that this will be a devastating blow to the organization. A death blow. A failure that will result in a changing of the guard and a decline of the team into mediocrity. I would love for that to be the case but that's probably not going to happen.

Boston fans are not clamoring for the heads of Terry Francona and Theo Epstein. Nor is the Boston press. While acknowledging that this collapse was really, really horrible, measured responses are being seen in most corners. No one in the Red Sox management seems to be in danger of being forced out.

Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Kevin Youkilis, Adrian Gonzalez, John Lester, Dustin Pedroia, Clay Bucholz and Jacoby Ellsbury are all coming back. They have prospects popping up all over the end of year Top 20 lists over at Baseball America. This is not the end of the Boston Red Sox. Win or lose, they will fill some holes, resign some guys, heal their injured and be right back among the favorites to take the division in 2012.

Tampa is a formidable organization but they have an Achilles Heel...they have no fans.

Even as dreadful as the Orioles have been, they have outdrawn the Rays 3 of the last 4 years. If the Rays start going to the playoffs on a regular basis...could the fan base start to gel? If you think battling the Yankees and Red Sox is tough, imagine the Rays with a decent source of cash flow. One of the best farm systems in baseball coupled with the cash to keep some of it? Scary.

If we had done this to the Yanks, I could see it being a bigger blow. With the new ownership, heads may have rolled in the Bronx. And they are an aging team with a fair, but not great, farm system. The Sox aren't going anywhere, not yet. The Orioles have enough hurdles to surmount without the Rays being perennial contenders too.

So I don't see the Rays as a fell good story. They aren't cute and cuddly to me. They are a threat. A sleeping giant. They are like Gremlins before they get wet. And I want to crush them like a bug before they become dangerous.

Perhaps I'm wrong about all this. Maybe this will hurt the Sox more than I realize. Maybe the Rays will always have cash flow challenges, no matter how much they win.

But I don't want to look back years from now and realize this game was the turning point that opened the door to a decade long Tampa Bay baseball dynasty. So I hope the Ranger sweep them, in humiliating fashion, right back to the Gulf Coast where they belong.

Matt Garza to the Orioles: "I'm Going to Shove It Down Your Throat"

Britt Ghiroli highlights Rays pitcher Matt Garza's comments to the St. Petersburg Times regarding his start against the Orioles on Friday:

"I owe them a lot of payback for the type of outing I had last time against them," he said to the paper. "They had back-to-back-to-back. So I'm going to make them feel really uncomfortable in the box. So they know, this (stuff) doesn't happen, so don't get used to it.

"I'm going to go in there, hair on fire, like I have been and go after them and say, 'Hey, you got me the first time, well I'm going to shove it down your throat this time.' "

Well, at least he gave us a heads up. First, to the fans. We should definitely watch this game tonight...could get interesting. And the umpires, who should issue a warning to Garza before the game even starts. And his teammates who now have to worry about retaliation. It's a nice bit of bravado to motivate yourself but not the smartest thing to say pre-game. You have also just thrown down the gauntlet to Kevin Millwood who, if he has anything left at all, will now leave it all on the field tonight to outduel Garza.

More quotes from the St. Petersburg Times:

Garza said the key has been staying with his mentality of "staying with my heater until they beat it."

Garza strayed from that plan for a stretch earlier this season, but it was out of necessity.

Well, a quick look at that game in Baltimore where Luke Scott, Ty Wigginton and Adam Jones hit back-to-back-to-back home runs show that Scott homered off a fastball, Wigginton did the same and then Jones hit one on a slider.

And it's not as if the Orioles have not hit well against the best pitchers in the AL this season. Just ask Cliff Lee.

So c'mon meat, show us that million dollar arm. 'Cause I've got a good idea about the 5 cent head of yours.

Base Hits: 5/4/2009

The Orioles have lost six straight and now have a two game series in Tampa squaring off against Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza. Not looking good. But let's see if we can mine for some hope...

Aki Iwamura, Evan Longoria and B.J. Upton have had success versus Adam Eaton in limited action. No one else on the Rays has (including 0-9 for Pat Burrell and 2-9 for Carl Crawford). Could Eaton sneak past the dangerous Rays hitters and defeat a struggling Scott Kazmir (5.40 ERA)? Maybe. Roberts, Markakis and Huff own him.

On the other hand, Matt Garza is 5-0 versus the Orioles. Maybe we can just go for the split.

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Dennis Sarfate goes on the DL with numbness in his hand and the Orioles recall RP Bob McCrory from Norfolk. McCrory was bringing it, hitting 95+ on the radar gun when I saw him in Gwinnett last month. It'll be interesting to see if he has good movement on that fastball.

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Frederick 1B/3B Brandon Waring is OPSing .867 this season. Find out the backstory of this player acquired from the Reds in the Ramon Hernandez deal.

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Danys Baez aka Mr. Reluctant has posted a 2.63 ERA this season and it's no mistake. He's struck out 12 in 13.2 IP and only walked 4 for a WHIP of 0.805. Who saw that coming? On a related note, Jamie Walker has posted a 1.93 ERA in a very LOOGY-type role.

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City commissioners in Sarasota will vote this afternoon and are poised to kill the deal to bring the Baltimore Orioles there for Spring Training. No, this time they really mean it.

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George Sherrill is not guaranteed the closer role going forward. The path forward? Closer by committee. Dave Trembley:

"...I have to take a look at the situation and do what I feel is in the best interest of the team for today. Further than that, I'll probably take it day by day."

Sherrill is none too pleased:

"The thing is, I would like to have the chance to pitch myself out of the opportunity...We do have a lot of guys to do it, but I want to be the guy to do it. I don't really understand it, but when it all gets said and done, wins are what matters.

"Closer-by-committee doesn't work and won't work. We'll have to sit down and talk about it and figure out what to do."

Well, George is right when he says closer-by-committee won't work. It won't work without willing participants.

I love closer by committee. It allows a more flexible use of your 'pen and give the manager more opportunities to put guys in a place to succeed.

Unfortunately, it almost never works. It's the psychological component that fails. Relievers like to have clearly defined roles. Always have.

I guess George Sherrill will move back to lefty specialist now?

How Baltimore Can Win The East '09: The Case Against the Rays

I don't have 5 points in my case against Tampa Bay because the pitfalls for the Rays lie in three broad areas.

1. A Defensive Regression?

The Rays had the AL's worst Defensive Efficiency Ratio in 2007 and the best in 2008. I am doubtful that they can continue to be that good in 2008. Jason Bartlett's UZR has declined every season and he was only average last year. Ditto for Iwamura at second. Longoria is a plus defender. The outfield is a good defensive unit assuming Carl Crawford stays healthy this year.

But it doesn't look like a team that can lead the league in DER again. They may be fine but I'm looking for a regression. Which dovetails into...

2. A Mediocre Offense

Pitching and defense masked this problem in '08 but when the Baltimore Orioles outscore you, you can't really call your offense championship caliber.

The only significant addition was Pat Burrell who represents a modest upgrade from Cliff Floyd at DH (when you adjust for Burrell's switch from the NL to the AL). It may be better but outside of Longoria there is nobody on that team that will strike fear into opposing pitchers. Without some improvement, the Rays will have a hard time repeating.

3. Kazmir/Garza/Shields

More than any other factor, as these guys go, so go the Rays. David Price will start the season in the bullpen. Hammel and Sonnanstine will be average at best. The hopes of the 2009 Rays season rest on the health (no guarantee of that for Kazmir) and effectiveness of those arms.

Conclusion

The Rays will be formidable in 2009. They have many young arms, should have a nice bullpen and won't embarass themselves at the plate. But they had a ton of things go just their way last year and the best they can hope for is an 86 win season. Formidable, but not overwhelming.

Pre-Season Thoughts in Review: Tampa Bay Rays

Another look back at my preseason predictions. This time, the Rays.

1. The Rotation Is a Question Mark After Kazmir

I was dead wrong in this assessment. Shields has improved on 2007 and Matt Garza took a big step forward in his game. It has made them (Kazmire-Shields-Garza) arguably the best starting three in the game. How about the 4th and 5th spots? More on that later.

2. Carl Crawford...and Then What?

Crawford is a star player but he's just about the only sure thing in the lineup. And even he is not the kind of hitter that can carry a team.

This was true.

Rocco Baldelli is injury prone.

That was true.

Carlos Pena came out of nowhere to post MVP type numbers in 2007. Is he really going to repeat that performance?

Pena has done little this season when he isn’t facing Jamie Walker. This is true.

This lineup could score a lot of runs but they're going to have to count on a lot of youngsters make giant strides to do so.

That wasn’t completely true but if not for Evan Longoria this lineup would be severely underperforming. They are winning in spite of their bats. More on that later…

3. The Bullpen Stinks

The Rays bullpen was the worst in baseball last season (yes, even worse than the O’s) but has done a Baltimore style turnaround this season to post the 9th lowest ERA in the majors. (Baltimore is currently 8th…). Dead wrong on this assertion as well.

4. They Can't Catch The Ball

Regardless of the metric you use, the Rays are among the best defenses in baseball. The addition of Lonoria at third, Jason Bartlett at short and the conversion of Aki Iwamora from third to second has stabilized the infiled and the continued improvement of B.J. Upton in center has helped immensely. Again, dead wrong.

5. The Key Contributors on Offense...Will Be Kids

This was true and some contributors have struggled in the first half. But Longoria has not. The offense has been good enough to contend.

Conclusion

Tampa Bay was a chic pick to take a big step forward this season and have been quite a surprise. But the fact that they are doing it with pitching and defense is the real shock. It was supposed to be the bats of Carlos Pena, Crawford, Upton and Longoria that were to lead Tampa to respectability but instead it’s been the glove and the arms. Even bottom of the rotation guys like Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine are benefiting from the improved glovework by the Rays.

Will the pitching hold? Maybe. Will the bats come around? If they do, they will be a juggernaut.

I was dead wrong about these Rays…

Terror in Tampa and Roch Kicks 'Em When They're Down

Owwwch! Ouch..quit it!

Growing pains exacted excruciatingly by Carlos Pena and friends.

The Good: Jeremy Guthrie pitched well and the Baltimore Oriole bats were alive against Jamie Shields, a good young pitcher.

The Bad: The defense (more on that later), the bullpen and the Oriole offense not putting the game away when they had a chance.

Anyway, a rare cheap shot from the keyboard of Roch Kubatko and it was directed at Jamie Walker:

While challenging a Sun reporter in the middle of the clubhouse last week, reliever Jamie Walker said something about how it’s fine if the media wants to rip him after he messes up, “but leave my teammates alone.”

We won’t rip you, Jamie, but no more meatballs to Carlos Pena. Please. Find something else on the menu.

That situation screamed for you last night. Two men on base, a three-run lead to protect and a left-handed batter at the plate. And you hang a curveball. And a lead disappears. And a losing streak reaches three games.

I vote that we worry less about what's in the papers and more about finishing off opponents...

Walker gets paid to retire those guys and bridge the gap to George Sherrill.

Ouch. We're not going to rip you Jamie but now...we're going to rip you.

Kubatko seemingly has had these criticisms in his head, if not on his hard drive, and was waiting for the first time Walker screwed up to use them. That's fine. It's kind of like a a revenge plunking, looking out for one of his Baltimore Sun teammates. (It was Dan Connolly who got ripped by the way. Roch never wants to say his name.)

But I don't think Roch watched the game last night. Walker came in with one out and got Akinori Iwamura to hit a soft grounder to shortstop. But Luis Hernandez booted the ball off his glove and then fumbled the ball around so long he was unable to make a throw. The hometown scorer gave Iwamura a hit but that was an error. It should have been two outs with nobody on with Carl Crawford coming up. Crawford hit the first pitch for a weak Texas Leaguer to shallow center. If Luis Hernandez had taken a good route to the ball or if Adam Jones had been playing centerfield last night, that may have been the third out of the inning.

Now, to this comment: "And you hang a curveball." Dead wrong. It was a good pitch. It broke great and was placed right where Pena had swung through one for a strike two pitches before. Pena was just on fire and hit a good pitch. (Likewise, he hit a great pitch from Guthrie for an opposite field homerun. Sick. Doubly painful that the Orioles could've signed him for a song before the 2007 season.)

Jamie Walker had some bad luck and gave up a homer to a slugger who he shouldn't have had to face. The team lost the game last night Roch, not Walker alone. Again, I understand you're protecting your co-worker but it's a real cheap shot. And your motives are transparent. And you're dead wrong.

Now that that's done...Let's go O's!

No Tase Yo, Bro

A great post by Matt Taylor at Roar From 34 about Orioles first base coach John Shelby and his ties to the glory days in Baltimore.

I have found it ironic that since John Shelby was hired that our first base coach and our third base coach, Juan Samuel, were both on the field the last time the Orioles won the World Series...but that Samuel was on the losing end of things with the Phillies.

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Tampa Bay Rays reliever Al Reyes (perhaps their best reliever) was arrested early Friday morning after an altercation at a Tampa nightclub. Reyes was punched in the face and after bouncers grabbed the man, Reyes started swinging his arms at anybody near him and spat blood at bystanders as well. ("Spanky" Huff was right. The nightlife is much better in Tampa. I never used to get blood spit on me in Fells Point...)

But there's more...

...Reyes got into a fight with another man, Eduardo Mora...

Mora...hmmmm. Could Melvin Mora have sent one of his relatives to provoke a known drunken hothead so Melvin would not have to face him this weekend? Coincidence?

Further investigation shows that Melvin is 2-4 with a homer against Al Reyes in his career ruining potential conspiracy theory...

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SC of Camden Chat has his nominations for the 2008 Oriole Magic Mix Tape. Brilliant. And SC has been doing regular posts about the O's minor league teams that provide a quick one-stop shop update for the Baby Birds.

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No Scott Kazmir, no Matt Garza, no Cliff Floyd, no Rocco Baldelli, probably no Al Reyes, perhaps no Willie Aybar...a good opportunity to put a hurtin' on the Ray. Let's go O's!

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So for this week's version of Song of the Week, I felt like going for a little jazz. This is the John Coltrane Quartet performing "Afro Blue". You have to get past the credits and the cheesy jazz critic leaning on the piano and smoking his pipe but besides that it is outstanding. Known mostly for his work on the tenor sax, Coltrane take a swing with the soprano sax on this one but this ain't no Kenny G! The rest of the quartet (McCoy Tyner (p), Jimmy Garrison (b) and Elvin Jones (d)) were outstanding musicians in their own right but quite underrated with Coltrane looming so large. Have a great weekend!

More Prospects...

After reading Alex Eisenberg's article in The Hardball Times that featured Chorye Spoone, I decided to check out his blog to see if any other Oriole prospects were mentioned.

Among guys he sees as potential breakout players (meaning Top 10 prospects) this season are Frederick Keys pitcher David Hernandez and soon to be Key Bobby Henson.

Hernandez was certainly not on my radar but indeed had a solid but inconsistent year. Henson is only 20 and tore it up as an Ironbird last season. Heaven knows we could use all the middle infield prospects we can get.

Recent acquisition Chris Tillman is also featured as one of the most underrated prospects in baseball.

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The new baseball season is getting me thirsty for some beer from Maryland. No, not Natty Boh. I can get Clipper City brews down here, maybe I'll go pick up a 12 pack this weekend. Anybody out there drink Clipper City? Recommendations?

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A quick thought on Tampa Bay: I watched the Wednesday game again last night, at least the parts I missed. I will reiterate that I don't see how the Rays are going to take a giant leap forward this season until they can improve their defense. Especially up the middle. Errors, knocking the ball around, dropping balls before the throw...stuff that gives a mediocre lineup like Baltimore too many chances to beat you. What's going to happen against really good teams?

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I've got some ideas on deeper analysis for the team so I'm going to go work on those now. With no game last night, pretty slow for Orioles news.

Here's the Song of the Week feature I'm going to start up. Nothing to do with the Orioles at all, just some of my favorite bands/songs as a diversion.

This week, everybody's favorite Indie rock kings from Manitoba, The Weakerthans. This is "A Civil Twighlight" from their latest album "Reunion Tour". Enjoy.




The Weakerthans

Thoughts on the First Game...

Current Orioles are hitting .281 against James Shields. Nick Markakis hits over .300 against Ray pitchers overall.

Jeremy Guthrie was 2-1 vs. the Rays last season.

That's it. A little optimism.

SC posted a speech from Major League that is quite fitting for our season.

Let's go O's!

Devil Ray Love

You've got to love it when the Devil Rays come to town. First, it's good for a win streak almost every time. The O's are probably the hottest team in the AL behind the Yankees and the Rays make it so easy to win that you have to give them partial credit for both teams recent good fortune. Second, it makes you feel better that there are ballclubs out there that are in even worse shape than ours. Of course, you all saw Carl Crawford and Brendan Harris botch an easy popup that should've been the third out and instead it became two runs and allowed Jay Payton to plate another in the next at bat. Oh, to be a Rays fan. I can't imagine it.

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Erik Bedard was not overly sharp last night (lots of hard hit balls right at fielders) but it shows his talent that he was able to dominate the boxscore without having his best stuff. The Orioles should lock his up ASAP. With a little luck in the win column, Bedard may be in serious consideration for the AL Cy Young.

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He's not there yet but...if Corey Patterson continues to hit well, he could give the O's a hard choice to make when he becomes a free agent at the end of the season. Two weeks ago this was a no-brainer; let him walk unless he would return for a dirt-cheap incentive-laden contract. But now he looks like he is returning to last year's form.

Is part of that resurgence due to hitting second? Trembley toyed with Patterson in that role for a couple weeks (BTW, Perlozzo never did...) but (as I had hoped) Corey has been a fixture in the 2 hole for the last week with good results. Patterson is hitting .347 when batting second this season.

Another weird thing is that as Patterson has gotten less patient, his production has gone up. After his terrible May he has walked only 4 times and raised his batting average a full 60 points. Maybe he's one of the rare hitters who markedly improves when he gets outrageously aggressive at the plate?

Patterson is an enigma and unique among major league regulars. Win or lose, I am fascinated by this guy's game.

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Luis Hernandez handles the bat better than I expected and is not too shabby with the glove either. Could he be a potential utility infielder when/if the O's part ways with Chris Gomez after this season?

Speaking of future utilitymen, Brandon Fahey gets the start at SS this afternoon.

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The good news about Chris Ray going on the DL is that we get a longer look at Norfolk closer Cory Doyne against big league bats. The rest of the season is open auditions for next year's pen.

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Steve Trachsel makes what may be his final start in an Oriole uniform this afternoon. Good luck against that lineup, Steve!

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On a non-Baltimore related note: Does anybody remember Rick Ankiel? The 21 year old Cardinal pitcher who imploded in the 2000 NLDS and never regained his control? Well, he finally gave up pitching, switched to the outfield in the Cards minor league system and up to this point has hit .272 with 29 HR's for AAA Memphis! At 28, he's a heartbeat away from making it back to the bigs as a power hitting corner outfielder. Who says this isn't the greatest game in the world?

Bedard Crumble? Afraid K(not)t!

OK, I'm officially done with dumb Knott puns...

I did not see the game, I have to work sometimes you know. But I can't say enough about Erik Bedard's performance in yesterday's game. He did not have his best stuff. He was very hittable and struggled all day, as did Tampa's Scott Kazmir. But Kazmir struggled and threw 100 pitches in four innings which marked the end of his day. Bedard managed to stretch his day into the 6th and threw only 110 while somehow managing to strikeout 8. When he needed the big K, he got it. Performances like that not only keep your team in the game but take the pressure off your bullpen. Every out helped the rest of the staff enormously, the small things add up over time.

The bullpen was great yet again which is beginning to sound like a broken record. Chris Ray struck out the side for his 5th save.

Jon Knott has been in the middle of everything since he was called up. The question remains this: Who goes down to Norfolk once Jay Payton returns? Do the O's need a lefty-mashing power hitter on the bench or another light hitting speedster defensive specialist? My vote is for Knott (obviously) as on any given night you could have Payton or Patterson on the bench to pinch run or serve as a defensive replacement.

A tough stretch against Toronto, Oakland and Boston await. Granted, we are catching Toronto at a good time but the next three series should tell us a lot about where this team is right now.

Sloppy in Tampa

Melvin Mora laid down a bunt in the first that got him all the way to third after the third baseman overthrew first and B. J. Upton fell down trying to retrieve the ball. Mora was stranded at third however.

A comedy (or tragedy) of errors in the third as Huff botched a grounder, then threw the ball away over Loewen's head as he covered first. Then Paul Bako got the ball and threw it away again trying to get Crawford at the plate. Two unearned runs...(sigh)

Adam Loewen did not have his command tonight. He pitched well to get out of a bases loaded jam in the third (that was not really his fault) but could not survive the same situation in the 4th as he walked Crawford with the bases loaded and was subsequently pulled. (On a positive note, Nick Markakis made another great diving catch in the 4th inning going full speed up and to his left to snowcone the ball barely before it hits the turf.)

Jeremy Guthrie provided no relief though as, on his first pitch, he gave up a bases clearing double to Ty Wigginton and six runs were on the board for Tampa. Guthrie would give up another in a shaky 5th. Overall though, Guthrie was able to settle down, pitch 2+ innings and keep the bleeding to a minimum. Pretty nice we didn't have to use him yesterday, huh?

Baltimore clawed their way back in with an RBI groundout by Melvin Mora in the 5th and an improbable two-run homer by Freddie Bynum in the 6th. With two outs in the 6th, Kevin Millar was patient as always, drawing the walk allowing Bynum a crack at Shields. The O's were within 4.

In the 7th, Brian Roberts led off and slapped a grounder through the right side and Mora made Shields pay for a mistake as he deposited one in the rightfield stands to bring the O's within 2, 7-5. Markakis was absolutely robbed of a double down the rightfield line by Ty Wigginton. (Wigginton did the same to Aubrey Huff earlier in the game...). Tejada then came up and doubled, Huff blooped one into center and was able to take second since 2B B. J. Upton left the bag open to pursue the ball. With men on 2nd and 3rd, Jay Gibbons lined one to center, doubling in Tejada and Huff to tie the game. Millar walked and ball four was a wild pitch that allowed Gibbons to advance to third. Bynum grounded out as Gibbons scored to take the 8-7 lead!

And right about here my network connection went all flaky and I couldn't see the rest of the game. The bullpen did another good job as Bradford, Parrish and Mr. Reluctant shut the Rays down and got the ball to Chris Ray who closed them out. Aubrey Huff added an insurance run with a solo homer in the 9th.

Don't look now but the O's are now over .500 for the first time in nearly a year, are the hottest team in the AL and a mere game out of first in the AL East.

Casey Fossum is lined up next like so much raw meat...

The WPA graph is here and reflects the wild swings the game took. Jay Gibbons proved to be the most influencial batter while Mr. Reluctant pitched in the most high leverage situations.