Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Trade Monitors: The Overhaul, The Update

I am updating and changing up the Oriole Trade Monitor and will switching over to WAR instead of Win Shares for measurement of trade value. There are two reasons for this:

1) Win Shares are no longer being updated at The Hardball Times
2) WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is readily available on FanGraphs.com and is probably a better metric and easier to understand. It also allows for negative numbers which I think makes sense for these comparisons.

So, on with the switch, starting with the oldest trades first, in terms of WAR.

SP Kris Benson from the Mets for RP Jorge Julio and SP John Maine

Benson - 0.8 WAR

Julio - 0.0 WAR
Maine - 5.0 WAR

Benson was decent for one year, then got hurt. The principle player the Orioles gave up (Julio) was merely average for the Mets. John Maine, a throw in, has been basically an average NL starter which makes this trade a landslide for the Mets.

SP Rodrigo Lopez to the Rockies for RP Jim Miller and RP Jason Burch

Lopez - 1.1

Miller - 0.1
Burch - 0.0

At the time, the return for Lopez didn't look like much. But Lopez wasn't much himself. He pitched OK for Colorado when he wasn't hurt but was hurt a lot and only pitched one year for them.

Jim Miller on the other hand has shown flashes on the majors and AAA that he may be a serviceable big league reliever. He currently has a 1.73 ERA and 14 saves over 26 appearances for Norfolk. Jason Burch is no longer with the organization.

SS Miguel Tejada to the Astros for OF Luke Scott, RP Dennis Sarfate, RP Matt Albers, SP Troy Patton, 3B Mike Costanzo

Tejada - 4.5

Scott - 3.3
Sarfate - -0.1
Albers - 0.5
Patton - 0
Costanzo - 0

Tejada is not the player he used to be but he provides good offense at a premium defensive position (where his glove is still OK) thus nice WAR number.

Based on his decline and contract, getting anything for Tejada at the time he was traded was a bonus. Getting Luke Scott and giving him a chance to play turned out to be a genius move. Scott has played well in LF (at least last season), been a productive slugger and is a fan favorite to boot. Matt Albers is inconsistent but has been good overall. I think Albers is going to be a pretty good reliever. Dennis Sarfate has a great arm but needs work on his control. Troy Patton has recovered from shoulder surgery and has made it back to AAA. Mike Costanzo got sent back to Bowie earlier in the year. Nice glove, bad bat.

SP Erik Bedard to the Mariners for CF Adam Jones, SP Chris Tillman, RP George Sherrill, RP Kam Mickolio, RP Tony Butler

Bedard - 2.7

Jones - 3.8
Sherrill - 0.8
Tillman - 0
Mickolio - 0
Butler - 0

Bedard was having a nice season but is on the DL yet again.

Adam Jones continues to widen the gap. If MacPhail had traded Bedard for Jones straight up this deal would look like a heist. But they also got George Sherrill and turned him into a serviceable closer and Chris Tillman is the best pitching prospect in the Oriole system. Tillman is a heartbeat away from Baltimore, dominating AAA lineups at the age of 22. Mickolio is doing well at Norfolk posting a 3.81 ERA in 21 games. Tony Butler pitched in low A last season and is currently injured.

C Ramon Hernandez to the Reds for UT Ryan Freel, 3B Brandon Waring and 2B/SS Justin Turner

Hernandez - -0.1

Freel - -0.2
Waring - 0
Turner - 0

Addition by subtraction with Hernandez but Freel did plenty of damage during his short Oriole tenure. I thought Hernandez might hit a little in Cincinnati but hasn't and hasn't even been the primary catcher for the team reducing his value even more.

Brandon Waring is posting a .262/.345/.485 line in Frederick but is a little old for the league. Justin Turner has posted a .301/.356/.374 line in Norfolk, OK for a middle infielder. I've seen him play short twice and he looks pretty good in the field. He may turn out to be a nice utility man in a couple years.

SP Garrett Olson, RP Henry Williamson to the Cubs for OF Felix Pie

Olson - -0.3
Williamson - 0

Pie - 0

The Cubs shipped Olson almost immediately to Seattle for Aaron Heilman (who has been mediocre at best) and Olson has bounced between Seattle and AAA Tacoma this season. He's been a bit below average in the majors. Henry Williamson is doing well for A+ Daytona but he is a bit old for the league too.

Pie has had limited opportunities but his defense had offset the bad bat to provide replacement level production.

SP Hayden Penn to the Marlins for UT Robert Andino

Penn - -0.2

Andino - 0.3

I didn't like this trade at the time but Penn stunk in Florida and continues to stink for New Orleans. Andino's glove at short more than offsets the anemic bat and has given the Orioles good value so far.

UT Ryan Freel to the Cubs for OF Joey Gathright

Freel - -0.2

Gathright - 0

Freel has continued to suck for the Cubs. Joey Gathright will probably never contribute anything to the major league club but Baltimore still wins this trade by subtraction alone.

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