Monday, October 18, 2010

The Oriole Windfall for 2011, Part 1

As we head into the offseason, it's time to look at the projected Oriole payroll for 2011 and see where money could and should be spent. All salary data taken from Cot's Baseball Contracts. First, the money owed to players already under contract for next season.

2011 Salary (in millions)
Roberts                        $10.0
Markakis                       $10.6
Gonzalez                       $6.0
Matusz                         $1.4
Hendrickson                    $0.2
Atkins                         $0.5

One more year on the Mike Gonzalez deal. If my estimated abritration figures are anywhere close, Gonazalez will be at least the 4th highest paid Baltimore player in 2011.

Hendrickson, apparently, can be retained for a $200,000 option. If that is true, then the Orioles will pick up that option.

Here's the guys on the team that could be retained for something just above or at the league minimum. I rounded all salaries up to $500,000.

2011 Salary (in millions)
Bergesen                       $0.5
Tillman                        $0.5
Fox                            $0.5
Hernandez                      $0.5
Berken                         $0.5
Arrieta                        $0.5
Bell                           $0.5
Reimold                        $0.5
Andino                         $0.5
Wieters                        $0.5
Tatum                          $0.5
Patton                         $0.5
Simon                          $0.5
Mickolio                       $0.5

Finally, to fill out the roster, here are the arbitration eligible players with educated guesses on what each player will earn if they are offered arbitration.

2011 Salary (in millions)
Guthrie                       $5.0
Albers                        $0.7
Scott                         $7.5
Jones                         $2.3
Johnson                       $0.7
Pie                           $1.0

Of the six, only Albers is a good bet to not be tendered arbitration.

That's a total of $52.9 million dollars committed to fill out the roster for 2011, more than $20 million less than the 2010 Opening Day payroll.

Again, Andy MacPhail has avoided the long contracts and leaves himself a lot of payroll flexibility for 2011. But will they spend it? Where could they spend it? More on that tomorrow.


The Oriole Way said...

Hendrickson can be NOT retained for $200k. He's $1.2 to be retained.

Sean said...

I think Hendrickson's option is $1.2 mil. It has to be greater than $0.4 mil because that's the Major League minimum. I think his buyout might be $0.2 mil.

Albers isn't good but he's probably worth his salary. If he has to be cut, his salary shouldn't be an issue.

Steve G. said...

Taking a look at the arb guys, Scott is the only one I'd hesitate to non-tender. $7.5 million is pretty steep for a player who could hit the decline phase pretty quickly. All the other players seem like good gambles though, and Guthrie at $5 million could make for a good trading chip.