Better late than never, I figured I would revisit my pre-season predicitons for 2011 for the Orioles. Here they are (were):
If Brian Roberts plays in 130 games, I'm going with 80 wins. If he ends up on the DL, 76 wins.
Wow, I was really optimistic for 2011. Roberts did not play in 130 games, obviously. But the O's fell 7 wins short of my projections. I figured the pitching staff would struggle but not as much as it did. A top of the rotation that included Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Matusz and Zach Britton held much more promise than it delivered.
Zach Britton wins the AL Rookie of the Year. Yeah, Jeremy Hellickson is the odds on favorite but I think Britton comes up on the outside and catches him.
Dead wrong. Britton had his bright spots but Hellickson had a solid season (helped by the defensive team behind him) and is still one of the favorites for the award. Dustin Ackley, Eric Hosmer and others from a strong rookie class.
Adam Jones breaks out this season. A mild breakout, something like a .295/.340/.450. 20 home runs. But a breakout nonetheless.
Jones hit .280/.319/.466 on the year. I predicted a .790 OPS, he OPS'ed .785. He broke out with the power more than with his hit tool (25 homers). But pretty close
I can't predict playing time but Nolan Reimold will finish the season with a higher OPS than Vladimir Guerrero. So will Luke Scott.
One of the few things I was really right on was the Reimold versus Guerrero debate. Reimold finished with a .781 OPS, Guerrero with a .733 OPS. Luke Scott only had a .703 OPS but if healthy, I think he would have hit somewhere north of a .750 OPS. I'm calling this one as correct.
Jeremy Guthrie will, once again, have an ERA lower than his FIP. Probably significantly so.
Not really. Guthrie's FIP was 4.48 (xFIP was 4.47) and his actual ERA was 4.33.
Nick Markakis will hit 40 doubles. Again. Also will have at least a .360 OBP.
This seemed like a real no-brainer before the season but Nick didn't come close to that 40 double mark, only 31 this season. And he rallied for a .351 OBP late in the season. But I continue to have rose colored glasses when it comes to Nick. It was the worst offensive season of his career.
Matt Wieters hits 15 home runs. Anything else he does is anybody's guess.
He hit 22 homers, had his best offensive year yet and became one of the top defensive catchers in baseball.
Luke Scott will OPS north of .850.
Not exactly. Even if healthy, I don't think Scott could have streaked his way to that number.
Josh Rupe doesn't see May 15th in Baltimore. He sees it from Norfolk.
I had forgotten all about Josh Rupe until I reviewed this post. May 5th was his last appearance for Baltimore.
Zach Britton is in Baltimore before May 15th.
Injuries made this a near necessity in early April.
JJ Hardy will be a fan favorite by June 1st.
I'll vote no on this. On June 1st, Hardy was OPSing .730 with 3 homers. The rest of the way he OPSed .817 with 27 homers. He was winning hearts in June and July but not by June 1st.
Matt Albers will outperform most of the Oriole pen while pitching for Boston.
This was definitely true through, oh, right about the All-Star break. But Albers' late season struggles gave him a 4.73 ERA (worse than his mark for the O's in 2010) and although his strikeout numbers improved, he just wasn't very good in Boston.
Mark Hendrickson ends up playing a large role in the Oriole season. Take that as you will.
Hendrickson pitched 11 innings for the O's in 2011. Not. Even. Close.
Mark Reynolds hits 30 homers and has 200 Ks.
Reynolds exceeded even my great expectations by hitting 37 homers but fell just short of the strikeout predicition with 196.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
2011 Oriole Predictions Revisited
Friday, April 8, 2011
Anatomy of a Miracle Season
I used to do a yearly preview called "How the Orioles Can Win the East" in which I would talk about 5 things that could go wrong with the other AL East teams and 5 things which could break Baltimore's way and how all these things could combine to allow the Orioles to take the division. It was tongue in cheek but the underlying premise was absolutely true. Miracle seasons happen but they happen for a number of converging reasons; lots of stuff goes right for your team and a lot of stuff goes wrong for the opposition.
This season, part of that equation is falling into place. The pre-season favorite Red Sox and the defending AL East champs are both winless through 6 games. The Yanks are getting old and have questions about their rotation. If you tell me that the toughest competition in the division will be the Blue Jays, well, I'd almost give the Orioles a puncher's chance at making the playoffs.
But the other half of the equation is not. Despite the 5-1 start, the Orioles have already seen Brian Matusz and Justin Duchscherer got to the DL, Jeremy Guthrie hospitalized, Luke Scott missing games with a groin injury and JJ Hardy missing a game with a cryptic ribcage injury.
For the Orioles to surprise, pretty much everything would have to go right and so far, that has not been the case. Overall, the offense has been sluggish. There have been various levels of injury already. The young pitchers haven't all come out of the gate spectacularly.
Even though it is only 6 games into the season, I could be more optimistic about the 2011 season if the Orioles were keeping up their end of the bargain. As it is, we can enjoy it while it lasts but this isn't 1989.
If this was going to be a miracle season, things would be going better for Baltimore right about now.
Monday, February 7, 2011
Unofficial 2011 Baltimore Orioles Spring Training Visitor's Guide
But just becasue I'm not going doesn't mean I can't lend a helping hand to those who will. Pitchers and catchers report in a week and Oriole Spring Training is some experience these days.
With that in mind, here is my unofficial Baltimore Orioles Spring Training Guide. This is based on my personal experiences from past visits plus information I have gathered from around the web, from the team and other publications. I'll have a few things to update along the way (and if you have anything to add yourself, please leave it in the comments of email me at dempseysarmy at yahoo dot com) but, in my humble opinion, is a very good start.
Stadium
The stadium is cozy so there's not really a bad seat in the house. There is little to no shade (although renovations are supposed to help that a bit) so if you go to a day game, pack sun screen accordingly. The renovation is supposed to create some more shade but better safe than sorry.
Ed Smith was not a great stadium but Louis Angelos promised that the offseason renovations of the Sarasota baseball facilities would create "a ballpark that is the premier baseball facility, not just in Florida but you can include Arizona too." So there's that. (Pictures of the ongoing renovation can be seen here.) You'll notice that the seats from OPACY that were removed during its renovation are now being installed in Sarasota.
The stadium is located at 2700 12th St. in Sarasota at the corner of 12th and Tuttle. There's a ton of parking available and it's $8 to park there on game day.
From the book Florida Spring Training by Alan Byrd:
"There's little to like about Ed Smith Stadium. While it comes close in size to some of the League's older parks, it's missing the things that would make it quaint...
On the positive side, you'll have no trouble seeing all the action. The box seats are close to the diamond and the other seats aren't too far away."
Schedule
Oriole pitchers and catchers report on February 13th with the first workout taking place on February 14th. The first full-squad workout takes place on February 21st. Workouts are scheduled to begin each day at 9:00 AM and are free to the public until the games begin. Fans will be able to access the main "bowl" and some of the back fields as well.
The full game schedule is available here with the first official game on February 28th against the Pirates in Bradenton. The first game in Sarasota is March 1st versus the Rays. Most games are at 1:05 with a handful of night games. The seating chart is here.
Concessions
Here's a list of concessions and prices from last season:
Hot Dog $4.00
Bratwurst w/ Kraut $6.00
Pizza $6.50
Nachos $4.75
Chicken Nuggets $6.50
Popcorn $3.75
Peanuts $4.00
Soft Pretzel $4.00
Cracker Jacks $3.50
Candy $3.00
Ice Cream $3.50
Cotton Candy $3.50
Soda (32oz) $4.00
Gatorade $4.00
Bottled Water $3.50
Coffee $1.75
Beer (16oz) $6.25
Imported Beer (12oz) $6.75
Grill
Hamburger/Cheeseburger $6.50
Sausage, Peppers & Onions $7.00
Hot Dog $4.00
Hebrew National Kosher Dog $5.00
French Fries $4.00
And a quick snapshot of souvenir prices:
Tickets
Tickets for Oriole Spring Training games are priced as follows: for General Admission
Standing Room $10 Left Field Pavilion $15 Reserved Grandstand $17 Lower Box $21 Infield Box $23 Premium Infield Box $27Prime games are $2 more per ticket, across the board. Box office hours from January 24th-February 11th are M-F 10 AM - 4 PM. After February 11th, the box office is open seven days a week, also 10 AM - 4 PM.
Tickets will be available at the Sarasota box office, via phone orders at 800-745-3000 or Orioles.com.
In my opinion, there's not a bad seat in the house.
Minor League Camp
Minor league pitchers will hold their first workout at the complex on Tuesday, March 2. The first minor league full squad workout will take place on Saturday, March 6. Minor league games begin Wednesday, March 17.
All workouts and games at the minor league complex are free to the public as is the parking.
Here's this year's minor league spring training schedule. When the AAA and AA teams play at home, the A level teams play away and vice versa.
Wednesday, March 16 AAA/AA vs. Boston 12:30 p.m. Buck O'Neil Complex
A @ Boston 12:30 p.m. Ft. Myers
Thursday, March 17 AAA/AA @ Tampa Bay 1:00 p.m. Port Charlotte
A Tampa Bay 1:00 p.m. Buck O'Neil Complex
Friday, March 18 AAA/AA @ Minnesota 12:00 p.m. Ft. Myers
A Minnesota 12:30 p.m. Buck O'Neil Complex
Saturday, March 19 AAA/AA Tampa Bay 1:00 p.m. Buck O'Neil Complex
A @ Tampa Bay 1:00 p.m. Port Charlotte
Monday, March 21 AAA/AA Minnesota 12:30 p.m. Buck O'Neil Complex
A @ Minnesota 12:00 p.m. Ft. Myers
Tuesday, March 22 AAA/AA @ Boston 12:30 p.m. Ft. Myers
A Boston 12:30 p.m. Buck O'Neil Complex
Wednesday, March 23 AAA/AA @ Minnesota 12:00 p.m. Ft. Myers
A Minnesota 12:30 p.m. Buck O'Neil Complex
Thursday, March 24 AAA/AA @ Tampa Bay 1:00 p.m. Port Charlotte
A Tampa Bay 1:00 p.m. Buck O'Neil Complex
Friday, March 25 AAA/AA Boston 12:30 p.m. Buck O'Neil Complex
A @ Boston 12:30 p.m. Ft. Myers
Saturday, March 26 AAA/AA @ Tampa Bay 1:00 p.m. Port Charlotte
A Tampa Bay 1:00 p.m. Buck O'Neil Complex
Monday, March 28 AAA/AA Tampa Bay 1:00 p.m. Buck O'Neil Complex
A @ Tampa Bay 1:00 p.m. Port Charlotte
Tuesday, March 29 AAA/AA Minnesota 12:30 p.m. Buck O'Neil Complex
A @ Minnesota 12:00 p.m. Ft. Myers
Wednesday, March 30 AAA/AA @ Boston 12:30 p.m. Ft. Myers
A Boston 12:30 p.m. Buck O'Neil Complex
Thursday, March 31 AAA/AA @ Tampa Bay 1:00 p.m. Port Charlotte
A Tampa Bay 1:00 p.m. Buck O'Neil Complex
Friday, April 1 AAA/AA Tampa Bay 1:00 p.m. Buck O'Neil Complex
A @ Tampa Bay 1:00 p.m. Port Charlotte
Autographs
If you really want autographs, go to the workouts. There are always a fair amount of players, major and minor leaguers who will come over to sign things for the fans. We were able to get a few autographs before one of the games but there was much less jockeying for position at the workouts. Players are much more likely to sign for kids than for adults or obvious "autograph hounds". I remember Kevin Millar in particular ordering "Autograph hounds to the back, kids up front!"
Ed Smith Stadium afforded better opportunities for autographs before game that Ft. Lauderdale stadium did. If you stand along the rightfield wall near the bleachers, you will place yourself in close proximity to the outfield gate that the players use to get from the clubhouse to the field. Players were very generous with their time (and this was during a crowded Red Sox matchup) and autographs seemed fairly easy to come by.
Outside of the Ballpark
I haven't been to Sarasota enough to be an authority so I will link to Peter Schmuck's column on his favorite Sarasota haunts.
Getting There
Sarasota is a quick two and a half hour flight from Baltimore. If you found this guide useful, check out our partner, Expedia for your tickets, rental car and hotels:
Links and References:
Thanks to Kristen Hudak and Kate Wheeler at MASN, MLB.com's Britt Ghiroli and Orioles Public Relations Director Monica Pence Barlow for helping me fill in some of the blanks.
Florida Spring Training: Your Guide to Touring the Grapefruit League by Alan Byrd
Baltimore Orioles at SpringTrainingOnline.com
2011 Baltimore Orioles Spring Training at MLB.com
Related Posts:
Sarasota FanFest Post (with pics of the stadium and such)
Pirates vs Orioles in Sarasota, 3/5/2010
Orioles Minor League Camp 3/6-3/8, 2010
Red Sox vs Orioles in Sarasota, 3/7/2010
Welcome to Birdland South!
Friday, December 31, 2010
Low Cost Pitching Depth for the Orioles
You can never have enough pitching. Never.
The Orioles appear to be set in the rotation for 2010 with Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Matusz, Brad Bergesen, Jake Arrieta, Chris Tillman and, waiting in the wings in AAA, Zach Britton. But as we have seen before, injuries happen and these young arms may not all be ready to go. You don't want to have to rush a guy like Britton to the majors because you lack pitching depth. With David Hernandez gone, that just leaves Rick VandenHurk as a guy who could provide emergency starts. Jason Berken is not returning to the rotation.
But Baltimore has enough talent that they don't need to spend a lot of money on pitching depth. There are guys coming off of injury or poor seasons that can be had for cheap and may provide some upside if they rebound. I'm not saying these are great pitchers but they would be available for depth and emergency.
Sign a guy or two from this list and let them compete. They could always be shifted to the bullpen or to AAA if they are not needed.
Here's some candidates listed, more or less, in order of desirability.
Jeremy Bonderman - There is always a chance that Bonderman regains his pre-2008 form when a blood-clot in his shoulder shut him down for the better part of 2 seasons. He pitched a bit better than his 5.55 ERA (xFIP, FIP) and threw 171.2 innings in 2010. Another year removed from the injury, he could improve on those numbers and could provide great value.
Jeff Francis - A lefty starter, Francis pitched much better than his 5.00 ERA (3.88 FIP, 3.95 xFIP). If he's fully healthy, he could be an interesting weapon against the Yanks and Red Sox lefty-heavy lineups. Not a big strikeout guy but has pretty good ground ball rates.
Chris Capuano - The Brewers don't want Capuano, not as a starter anyway, so he's on the market. Capuano didn't pitch badly in 66 innings as a swingman for Milwaukee and even though he would probably see a bump in his ERA (3.95 ERA, 4.22 FIP, 4.08 xFIP), he would still be a slightly better than average starter. Another lefty in the rotation in the AL East couldn't hurt.
Kevin Millwood - Millwood didn't quite live up to expectations but he did provide more than 190 innings and 1.3 WAR last season. Again, he can take the beatings if the youngsters aren't all healthy or ready. He did it last year and you might be able to squeeze one more year out of him.
Freddy Garcia - Garcia is kind of a flyball pitcher which would seem to be a bad fit. Also, there seems to be some competition for his services which may push his price up. Still, he has been right around league average for the last nine seasons so he's a good bet to remain consistent and do that again.
Doug Davis - Davis would be a guy to bring in on a minor league deal. He could be an interesting option as a swingman or 5th starter if he has a good Spring Training.
Noah Lowry - What happened to this guy? He tried to make a comeback before last season, nobody signed him and he didn't pitch anywhere in 2010. Go find him and see if he'll sign a minor league deal. The guy had all kinds of upside as a young lefty for the Giants. It would be worth a look to see what he could do in Spring Training.
John Maine - Why not? Another guy who would come cheap, maybe even on a minor league deal and he could be shifted to the bullpen if needed. He wasn't healthy last season but if he's healthy now , he could give us a half season in the rotation or add depth to the 'pen.
Monday, November 29, 2010
Beating a Dead Horse Named Victor
A few things I read in a Britt Ghiroli post yesterday have me all worked up about Victor Martinez again. (Bear with me, there's a point here...)
Orioles fans are upset about losing Martinez, and understandably so. He would have been a nice addition...
If losing Martinez showed anything, it is that the Orioles are going to struggle to sign any big-name free agents. To think they are going to solve their holes in the infield and batting lineup without making a trade --likely costing them a young arm or two -- is naive.
They aren't getting away from MacPhail's mantra of stockpiling young arms. But if they are going to keep up with the "buy the bats" approach, it will take more than opening their wallets for the Konerko's and Pena's to field a competitive team next spring. It will probably take a trade....
I'm not going to pick on Ghiroli here, her view is reflected by every local mainstream writer on the Oriole beat. There are a few truths that just seem to be givens concerning the Orioles' pursuit of Victor Martinez:
1. Martinez would have been a good fit for Baltimore.
2. Not only was offering Martinez $48 million for 4 years the correct thing to do, the Orioles probably should have offered more.
3. Martinez didn't want to come here because Baltimore is not an attractive destination for free agents and thus:
4. The Orioles must pay through the nose to attract even moderately attractive talent.
I won't argue the first point. Martinez playing first base over the next three or four seasons would have been just fine. The problem comes with the price and length of contract the Orioles offered to try to get him.
To address the second assumption, I will refer you back to this post and restate that while Martinez' bat is a superior one for a catcher, it is middling compared to other first basemen in the league. It ranks somewhere above Adam LaRoche and under Todd Helton over the past four seasons. Martinez was not going to catch much, if at all, in Baltimore. (Apparently, he won't be catching much in Detroit either...)
That greatly reduces his value. Period. Think about it this way: Is anybody clamoring to lock up Luke Scott to a four year deal for $12 mil per season? No. Nor should they. But over the past three seasons, Scott has posted an OPS over 20 points higher than Martinez (and has played about 50 more games over that stretch too). But Martinez is the middle-of-the-order bat Baltimore needs? Thinks about that. Not even the hitter that Luke Scott is. Closer to Adam LaRoche in production. Is this the big bat Andy MacPhail promised? (And I'm not even factoring in the 2nd Round pick the Orioles would have lost in the 2011 draft...)
Remember when Miguel Tejada was signed last offseason and many in the media (and Dave Trembley himself) penciled him in as the cleanup hitter? Seems silly now, right? It was because they remembered Tejada as he was in 2006, not as he was in 2009. Three years of declining power didn't seem to be a signal to anybody that this was a terrible idea. Fans and media alike are remembering Martinez' value as a catcher, not the value he will provide going forward as, primarily, a first baseman or a DH.
You know what other scenario it reminds me of? Javy Lopez. I'm still of the mind that the Orioles dodged a bullet when Martinez picked Detroit.
Speaking of jilting Baltimore, why is it that Boston is not being maligned? Were they not also rejected? Is anybody assuming that Boston is an unattractive destination? That their money is no good to free agents? Of course not. Baltimore is more attractive as a destination than it has been in years. Martinez didn't give Boston the chance to up their offer either. He liked the Tigers' money and their general situation. That doesn't make other destinations unattractive, not necessarily. That's just Baltimore's inferiority complex talking.
But even if that were true, why should Baltimore strap itself down to a bad, multi-year contract just to land somebody? That doesn't work, folks. Javy Lopez. Miguel Tejada. Albert Belle. Spending money for money's sake, just to land a player, doesn't solve the losing. It's counterproductive. If the right deal isn't there, you have to let it go. You can't expect the club to panic. You should hope for just the opposite. You also can't throw a big money, multi-year deal at a middle-aged, middling bat just to "do something". But that's exactly what MacPhail did. And he acts like this was a big thrust of his offseason plans.
So the fans and mainstream media shouldn't be asking why the Orioles couldn't land Victor Martinez. The real story, the real question that should be asked is this: Why were they pursuing him so hard in the first place?
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Why Baltimore is Better Off Without V-Mart
Reportedly, Victor Martinez will leave the Red Sox and sign with the Tigers for 4 years and $50 million. Since the news broke, Twitter has been all, uh, atwitter with Orioles fans lamenting the club for not being more aggressive in going after V-Mart. A sampling:
"Tigers have reportedly outbid the Red Sox, White Sox and Orioles for Victor Martinez....Not good news for BAL."
"the orioles got outbid for a good player?? No wayyyy"
"Vintage Orioles. Offer just enough to make sure they get turned down so they can say the tried."
"Dammit, Orioles. When you bid 48, then the Tigers offer 50. YOU OFFER 52!"
I was a bit surprised by all this but realized that the fans were reacting to Martinez's perceived value and not his actual value. Part of this is based on past performance, part is based on his perception in the media.
To highlight, Martinez's value, a look at the top offensive catchers, in terms of OPS, over the past 5 seasons:
2006-2010 OPS G 1. Joe Mauer .906 670 2. Jorge Posada .879 569 3. Brian McCann .856 695 4. Victor Martinez .844 665 5. Mike Napoli .831 506
There's a but of a dropoff after V-Mart and even bigger dropoffs after Napoli. Martinez has clearly been one of the best offensive catchers of recent years and is certainly worthy of the accolades and reputation he has.
However, the Orioles already have a catcher. Matt Wieters is still a promising young bat and is one of the better defensive catchers in the game today. Martinez was going to be primarily a first baseman for the Orioles (and probably a DH for the Tigers). And as a first baseman, his bat is not all that special.
Top offensive first baseman, in terms of OPS, over the past 5 seasons:
2006-2010 OPS G 1. Albert Pujols 1.064 670 2. Joey Votto .958 456 3. Ryan Howard .947 768 4. Lance Berkman .930 722 5. Prince Fielder .922 797 . . . 13. Todd Helton .858 651 14. Victor Martinez .844 665 15. Adam Laroche .836 738
So the Tigers just gave $12.25 mil per season to a guy whose bat has been just slightly better than Adam LaRoche over the past 4 seasons. The Orioles could sign LaRoche for a third of that money, on a short deal and get similar value.
The Tigers just gave a 4-year deal to a very ordinary bat who will be 35 when they stop paying him. I suppose that's fine for them but the Orioles can't afford such an extravagance or risk. The team will be better without him.
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Guy Thinks Derek Jeter Should Be An Oriole and He Doesn't Work for The Onion
From The Toy Department at BaltimoreSun.com:
Orioles need to sign Derek Jeter
Hoo boy.
As baseball's Winter Meetings approach and the Orioles begin looking to upgrade their roster, they need to do something bold to build on the buzz created by hiring Buck Showalter.
They need to sign Derek Jeter.
Well, it would certainly create buzz. The Orioles created a lot of buzz by spending big bucks on their bullpen a few seasons back. It was bad buzz. That is the kind of buzz this will create.
The Orioles have many holes -- first base, third base, veteran starting pitching and the bullpen. But they also need a shortstop. More importantly, they need a leader.
They need Derek Jeter.
Ah, a leader! Why didn't you say so? Jeter would make an excellent bench coach. Hell, Showalter can start grooming him to take over the helm in a few years. Jeter's a smart guy, he'd be great manager material.
Sure, he's 36 and will turn 37 during the 2011 season. But he's durable, playing at least 150 games the past seven seasons. His batting average fell from .334 to .270 and his home run total dropped by eight to just 10. But he drove in 67 runs and won a Gold Glove. He's no Cesar Izturis defensively, but he's solid and his hitting numbers crush those of Izturis.
Wait a second...he suggesting that Baltimore signs him as a player? Really...wow, ok. Let's take a closer look at this then...
The author, Ron Fritz, has already made the greatest case against Derek Jeter, a case he tries to dismiss. His age. Jeter will be 37 in 2011 which doesn't bode well for his bat. In the history of baseball, only 3 shortstops 37 and older have posted a season OPS+ greater than 100. That's Honus Wagner, Luke Appling and Ozzie Smith. Looking at the top OPS+ seasons from a shortstop since 1980:
Year OPS+ O. Smith 1992 105 O. Vizquel 2004 99 O. Vizquel 2006 93 O. Smith 1993 88 O. Vizquel 2005 82
At best, you might get a season of Derek Jeter producing at league average at the plate. The rest of the time, if you're lucky, you get a graceful decline into mediocrity. But middle infielders do not age well and Jeter is already aged. His OPS+ of 90 in 2010 was a career low, which, in a round about way, the author references (but defends him with an RBI stat which, in the face of everything else, is immaterial).
Gold Glove? Here's my response: Gold Glove, scholdglove. Jeter hasn't been even an average defender in more than 10 years, let alone an elite one. Furthermore, you can make a very good argument that he is one of the worst regular shortstops in the league. If you want to refute that fact with Fielding Percentage, I suppose you can delude yourself about his glove but it won't change the reality.
The author is correct in stating that Jeter will outhit Cesar Izturis but that is like boasting that Adam Jones can smoke Matt Wieters in the 100-yard dash. It's hardly the measuring stick you want to use to demonstrate competence.
So you would be signing an aging player with a mediocre bat and a bad glove to man what is arguably the most important defensive position on the field. But Jeter would probably provide more value than Izturis in 2011. I'll hear him out.
Jeter also would bring five World Series titles, command respect in the locker room and show a young Orioles team how to play the game. The future Hall of Famer is 74 hits from 3,000. If there is one thing the Orioles do well, it's milestone ceremonies.
I don't believe for a second that the Steinbrenners will let Jeter remove those World Series trophies from Yankee Stadium and bring them down I-95. OK, he is beloved by the Yankees, so maybe one. But not all five.
He would command respect and he could demonstrate a professional manner of play to the youngsters. But couldn't he do that as a coach? Can't we explore that avenue again?
And then he suggests that the Orioles sign a player because the Orioles really know how to throw a party.
There is not one point in that paragraph that supports the argument that Jeter improves the Orioles on the field.
But hey, a one-year deal for $5 mil or so...probably worth Baltimore's time...
If the Yankees are willing to let Jeter test the free-agency market, then the Orioles should be there with an offer, somewhere in the four-year, $60 million range. Really, whatever it takes. Ask Cal Ripken Jr. to help recruit him. And then, because you have a shortstop who does more than hit singles, you can maybe re-sign Ty Wigginton to play third or first and still be able to spend decent money for another corner infielder.
*drops plate of hot wings*
Wow...4 years for $60 million? He would be the highest paid player on the team. That's more than I suggested that the Orioles throw at Adam Dunn, a player still in his prime. How does Fritz expect the Orioles to get their money's worth on that deal? They'll be paying a 40-year old shortstop $15 mil in 2014. By then, he certainly won't be hitting anything but singles, if he is hitting at all.
The lunacy of that suggested offer speaks for itself.
Not to mention...who says he'll play for that? He's balking at similar offers from the Yankees already. It would take something closer to $20 million to lure him from the Big Apple. It's a contract that would hamstring the Orioles for years to come. It would be worse than the Barry Zito deal, the Aaron Rowand deal, any of them. An albatross. A debacle.
It would be a PR disaster for the Yankees, it would hurt them on the field and maybe, just maybe, his signing would send a signal to other free agents that Baltimore is a great place to play.
$15 mil a season could run a hell of a disinformation campaign against the Yankees. And it wouldn't hurt the Orioles on the field like Jeter would for 648 games.
If the Miguel Tejada signing didn't improve opinions about Baltimore as a place to play, why would the Jeter signing do so? It'll look like a better destination when the play on the field is respectable.
Imagine Showalter and Ripken holding a No. 2 Orioles jersey with Jeter on the back as they announce the signing. They couldn't print tickets fast enough at Camden Yards.
*shudder*
Don't do that again.
The seats would be full for a couple games until they fans see Jeter field up close. Then they will leave again.
Yeah, I know he's a Yankee, and Orioles fans hate the Yankees. But they hate losing even more. What better way to end years of futility than signing one of the all-time great leaders and winners in the sport?
The fact that he is a Yankee is number 9 or 10 on my list of reasons not to give $60 million to Derek Jeter. Is Ron suggesting that Jeter alone is worth 16 wins? Really? Does he have access to those Angels in the Outfield? Can he truly make runs appear on the scoreboard with sheer will?
If you put Albert Pujols on this team, are you still certain the team could break even? I'm not.
Would he consider playing for the Orioles? It's time to find out.
A) He wouldn't consider that.
B) No, it not. It's really not.
The Orioles need to sign Derek Jeter.
I had to pinch myself to make sure it wasn't April Fool's Day or something. It's a completely absurd post. Is it a fan post? Who is this guy? My only conclusion is that this is a post designed to be controversial and attract attention. Which it did, if only from this small part of the Oriole blogosphere.
Thursday, November 4, 2010
The Oriole Windfall for 2011, Part 4
Dunn, Adam 1B $15,000,000
Markakis, Nick rf $10,600,000
Roberts, Brian 2b $10,000,000
Scott, Luke dh-of $7,500,000
Gonzalez, Mike lhp $6,000,000
Vasquez, Javier P $5,500,000
Guthrie, Jeremy rhp-s $5,000,000
Wigginton, Ty 3b $2,500,000
Jones, Adam cf $2,300,000
Izturis, Cesar ss $1,500,000
Matusz, Brian lhp $1,400,000
Pie, Felix lf $1,000,000
Andino, Robert if $700,000
Johnson, Jim rhp $700,000
Bergesen, Brad rhp $500,000
Hernandez,D rhp $500,000
Bell, Josh 3b $500,000
Berken, Jason rhp $500,000
Patton, Troy lhp $500,000
Reimold, Nolan of $500,000
Tatum, Craig c $500,000
Tillman, Chris rhp $500,000
Wieters, Matt c $500,000
Vandenhurk, R P $500,000
Arrieta, Jake P $500,000
$75,200,000
That is an mildly improved team for just a touch over the 2010 Opening Day payroll. The Orioles can certainly afford to take on some payroll via trade (hopefully, a shortstop and/or starting pitcher) to improve the team further. Time to buy a bat, Andy.
Friday, October 22, 2010
Terry Crowley's Days as Hitting Coach Numbered
According to the Baltimore Sun's Jeff Zrebiec, longtime hitting coach Terry Crowley may be done with that position, if not the organization.
The article also mentions that Felix Pie, Nick Markakis and Luke Scott have all credited Crowley with their development as hitters. But the bottom line is that the young bats have not developed well under the current coaching staff and Crowley has to take some blame for that. Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, Nolan Reimold...they haven't come along like they should have. Hitters seem to do well despite Crowley, not because of him.
After 13 seasons, it's time for a new voice at hitting coach and it's time for Crowley to find something else to do.
Monday, October 18, 2010
The Oriole Windfall for 2011, Part 1
As we head into the offseason, it's time to look at the projected Oriole payroll for 2011 and see where money could and should be spent. All salary data taken from Cot's Baseball Contracts. First, the money owed to players already under contract for next season.
2011 Salary (in millions) Roberts $10.0 Markakis $10.6 Gonzalez $6.0 Matusz $1.4 Hendrickson $0.2 Atkins $0.5
One more year on the Mike Gonzalez deal. If my estimated abritration figures are anywhere close, Gonazalez will be at least the 4th highest paid Baltimore player in 2011.
Hendrickson, apparently, can be retained for a $200,000 option. If that is true, then the Orioles will pick up that option.
Here's the guys on the team that could be retained for something just above or at the league minimum. I rounded all salaries up to $500,000.
2011 Salary (in millions) Bergesen $0.5 Tillman $0.5 Fox $0.5 Hernandez $0.5 Berken $0.5 Arrieta $0.5 Bell $0.5 Reimold $0.5 Andino $0.5 Wieters $0.5 Tatum $0.5 Patton $0.5 Simon $0.5 Mickolio $0.5
Finally, to fill out the roster, here are the arbitration eligible players with educated guesses on what each player will earn if they are offered arbitration.
2011 Salary (in millions) Guthrie $5.0 Albers $0.7 Scott $7.5 Jones $2.3 Johnson $0.7 Pie $1.0
Of the six, only Albers is a good bet to not be tendered arbitration.
That's a total of $52.9 million dollars committed to fill out the roster for 2011, more than $20 million less than the 2010 Opening Day payroll.
Again, Andy MacPhail has avoided the long contracts and leaves himself a lot of payroll flexibility for 2011. But will they spend it? Where could they spend it? More on that tomorrow.
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
The Oriole Windfall for 2011?
Late last season, I took a look at all the money that was coming off the books before the 2010 season. From the looks of it, the Orioles should be in a similar situation before 2011. In a season that will be much more about developing youngsters than free agent contributions, it is interesting to me how things will cascade going forward. Here's a quick breakdown of the salaries committed to by Baltimore for 2010. Some contracts and arbitration numbers are estimated. Figures are in millions. All current and future committed salary figures are from Cot's Baseball Contracts.
Millwood, Kevin $9
Roberts, Brian $10
Markakis, Nick $7.1
Gonzalez, Mike $6
Uehara, Koji $5
Atkins, Garrett $4.5
Wigginton, Ty $3.5
Izturis, Cesar $2.6
Scott, Luke $4
Matusz, Brian $.868
Meredith, Cla $1.25
Albers, Matt $.68
Guthrie, Jeremy $2.5
Jones, Adam $.5
Johnson, Jim $.45
Pie, Felix $.45
Andino, Robert $.45
Aubrey, Michael $.45
Bergesen, Brad $.45
Mark Hendrickson $1.5
Hernandez, David $.45
Mickolio, Kam $.45
Reimold, Nolan $.45
Tillman, Chris $.4
Wieters, Matt $.5
Moeller, Chad $.9
Mora, Melvin $1
TOTAL $65,398,000
If the Orioles do nothing else this offseason, they will have basically the same payroll as they did last season. At this point, I would rather let Michael Aubrey or Scott Moore fill out the last corner infield spot than the available free agents. Matt Holliday is not coming here. Maybe they add a risky pitcher like Sheets or Bedard to a 1-year deal. The O's payroll should be right around $70 million.
Now, the expiring deals for 2011 in millions:
Kevin Millwood $9
Melvin Mora $1
Koji Uehara $5
G. Atkins $4.5
T. Wigginton $3.5
C. Izturis $2.6
That is $25.6 million in expiring contracts. That brings the payroll down to about $40 million in guaranteed contracts and "minimum" salary guys. Throw in increases for arbitration, maybe an extension for Adam Jones and you get something closer to $50 million. Tops.
Atkins and Wigginton can be replaced by Josh Bell and Brandon Snyder. You would have to fill shortstop and maybe a spot int he rotation through free agency. The point is, Andy MacPhail has given this team a ton of flexibility going into 2011. How? Only two-year deals maximum for free agents and obtaining young, cheap talent through drafts trades and then retaining them with fairly reasonable deals.
The lineup could look like this:
1B Brandon Snyder
2B Brian Roberts
SS Justin Turner/Robert Andino/FA Shortstop
3B Josh Bell
C Matt Wieters
LF Felix Pie\Nolan Reimold\Luke Scott
CF Adam Jones
RF Nick Markakis
DH Nolan Reimold\Luke Scott
BN Justin Turner
BN Random Backup
SP Jeremy Guthrie
SP Brian Matusz
SP Chris Tillman
SP Brad Bergesen
SP Jake Arietta
RP Mike Gonzalez
RP Jim Johnson
RP Matt Albers
RP Kam Mickolio
RP David Hernandez
RP Brandon Erbe
RP Cla Meredith
That payroll could look something like this (I've included an arbitration raise for Guthrie and Scott and the beginning of an extension for Adam Jones):
Roberts, Brian $10
Markakis, Nick $10.6
Gonzalez, Mike $6
Scott, Luke $6.00
Matusz, Brian $0.868
Meredith, Cla $1.75
Albers, Matt 0.8
Guthrie, Jeremy $3.00
Jones, Adam $10.00
Johnson, Jim 0.8
Pie, Felix $1.00
Andino, Robert 0.8
Snyder, Brandon 0.45
Bergesen, Brad 0.5
Bell, Josh 0.45
Hernandez, David 0.45
Mickolio, Kam 0.45
Reimold, Nolan 0.5
Tillman, Chris 0.5
Arrieta, Jake 0.5
Erbe, Brandon 0.5
Wieters, Matt 0.5
Moeller, Chad 0.8
TOTAL $57.218
That's really cheap. It allows for the signing of veteran starting pitcher if one of the young guys flames out or a big corner infield bat if Bell or Snyder can't cut it. With lots of room to spare.
I think 2011 is the year that MacPhail is targeting. He'll have a better idea where his holes are and have plenty of cash to address them. This offseason, his biggest task is not to screw it up with a long contract to a middling free agent. (See Huff, Aubrey or Walker, Jamie)
He has done that. And it will pay dividends.
