Why Baltimore is Better Off Without V-Mart

Reportedly, Victor Martinez will leave the Red Sox and sign with the Tigers for 4 years and $50 million. Since the news broke, Twitter has been all, uh, atwitter with Orioles fans lamenting the club for not being more aggressive in going after V-Mart. A sampling:

"Tigers have reportedly outbid the Red Sox, White Sox and Orioles for Victor Martinez....Not good news for BAL."


"the orioles got outbid for a good player?? No wayyyy"


"Vintage Orioles. Offer just enough to make sure they get turned down so they can say the tried."


"Dammit, Orioles. When you bid 48, then the Tigers offer 50. YOU OFFER 52!"

I was a bit surprised by all this but realized that the fans were reacting to Martinez's perceived value and not his actual value. Part of this is based on past performance, part is based on his perception in the media.

To highlight, Martinez's value, a look at the top offensive catchers, in terms of OPS, over the past 5 seasons:

2006-2010              OPS        G        
1. Joe Mauer             .906       670
2. Jorge Posada          .879       569
3. Brian McCann          .856       695
4. Victor Martinez       .844       665
5. Mike Napoli           .831       506

There's a but of a dropoff after V-Mart and even bigger dropoffs after Napoli. Martinez has clearly been one of the best offensive catchers of recent years and is certainly worthy of the accolades and reputation he has.

However, the Orioles already have a catcher. Matt Wieters is still a promising young bat and is one of the better defensive catchers in the game today. Martinez was going to be primarily a first baseman for the Orioles (and probably a DH for the Tigers). And as a first baseman, his bat is not all that special.

Top offensive first baseman, in terms of OPS, over the past 5 seasons:

2006-2010              OPS        G        
1. Albert Pujols        1.064       670
2. Joey Votto            .958       456
3. Ryan Howard           .947       768
4. Lance Berkman         .930       722
5. Prince Fielder        .922       797
.
.
.
13. Todd Helton       .858       651
14. Victor Martinez   .844       665
15. Adam Laroche      .836       738

So the Tigers just gave $12.25 mil per season to a guy whose bat has been just slightly better than Adam LaRoche over the past 4 seasons. The Orioles could sign LaRoche for a third of that money, on a short deal and get similar value.

The Tigers just gave a 4-year deal to a very ordinary bat who will be 35 when they stop paying him. I suppose that's fine for them but the Orioles can't afford such an extravagance or risk. The team will be better without him.

Rule 5 Draft: O's Get A Reliever

The Orioles have selected RP Randor Bierd, a big Dominican righty that was in the Tiger farm system. Big strikeout guy, finished the season at AA last year. Probably a pretty good bet to stick with the big club and a decent selection I'd say.

More to come...

Heartbreaker #2

Enough with giving up grand slams already...

I'm really trying to look on the bright side here. last year, there's no way we hang around that long in a close game last night. Our pitching corp has come a long way from 2006. This lineup can't continue to hit this badly. They just can't. They're better than this. And hopefully they come around soon. The Royals are just the team to get healthy against.

Loewen was not as sharp as his last outing but pitched with poise in some difficult spots. Good stuff.

Regardless, it was painful to let that one get away. Not quite as painful as listening to Jim Palmer refer to our reliever "Charles Bradford" but painful nonetheless.

At least the Yankees and Sox lost. At least Mussina has a bad hammy.

4/10/2007 - O's vs. Tigers Game Notes

First time watching MASN broadcast on MLB.TV and it was a bit embarrassing. They showed Brian Roberts' stats under Nate Robertson, camera on Corey Patterson when ball was hit to Markakis, lots of stuff like that. Not even close to the quality of YES or the Twins network I've been watching for the last week.

This was about the best you could expect from Wright. His location was pretty good tonight and his fastball is just live enough to induce a lot of pop-ups and keep the hitters off balance. Five innings of shutout ball. He has already outperformed former Mazzone pupil Russ Ortiz for his Baltimore career. (I'm not kidding.) He won't be winning any Gold Gloves though.

Nate Robertson was absolutely cruising. This would be the night you really need Payton (vs. Patterson) and Hernandez in the lineup against a guy who is murder against lefty hitters.

Everything was OK until the 6th. Neifi Perez hit a comebacker off of Jaret Wright (literally), Wright walked Granderson and then removed himself from the game. (Later learned he had tightness in his shoulder. Uh-oh) Scott Williamson came in next and the infield blew it big time as Polanco dropped a bunt down towards third and nobody went after it. I mean nobody. Williamson then came up big to strike out Sheffield and get Ordonez to hit a double play ball to short but Brian Roberts rushed the relay and skipped the throw to first and it went off of Millar's glove. Two runs scored. Williamson then walked Guillen but Kevin Millar snuck behind him as he led off of first and Alberto Castillo picked him off.

The baserunning was not good tonight and that really gets magnified in a close game. Tejada got thrown out trying to stretch a single to center to a double in the 7th. (Why would he try to run on Curtis Granderson? Not only is he one of the better centerfielders in the AL, he has one of the best centerfield arms in the AL. I like how Granderson plays, he always has his head in the game and never dogs it. That's why he threw out Tejada.) And don't forget Millar getting doubled off of second in the the 3rd.

After getting run on like crazy in Minnesota, Alberto Castillo threw out two would-be basestealers tonight. And he picked Carlos Guillen at first. He is worthless at the plate but looks to be living up to his reputation behind it. You can't say the same for Bako but I'll let him coast on that three-run homer in the Bronx for awhile.

Who starts in 5 days? Will Wright recover? Guthrie or Birkins if he doesn't? Guthrie looked good tonight but I'm still not sold on him as a starter. He looks like the kind of pitcher who gets figured out the second time through the lineup.

The O's could muster no offense save for Patterson's bomb to right off Zumaya in the 8th. Sloppy play in the field and bad baserunning is not the recipe for success, not with this offense.

O's lose 3-1 missing the chance to even their record.