Ryan Freel: Mining for the Value

While there is much rejoicing that we Baltimore fans will no longer have to watch the lackluster efforts of Ramon Hernandez this season, there seems to be a surprising amount of enthusiasm for the centerpiece player we received from the Reds in return. I always had the impression that Ryan Freel was a defensive specialist and light hitting utility player. Am I missing something? Is this guy really going to have more impact on the team than, say, Chris Gomez did for a few years. Gomez was a versatile fielder and a decent enough hitter that he could contribute and not embarrass himself. That's nice but is it exciting? There seems to be a common thread when it comes to Freel's apparent value.


"Adding Freel to the mix in the outfield will help boost the energy on the Orioles..."- Dean Jones, Jr., Baltimore Sun

"Freel, a high-energy player and once the Reds' starting center fielder..." - Jeff Zreibec, Baltimore Sun

"Ryan Freel, if any of you have suffered through my talks in Baltimore, you've heard a lot about effort, energy and enthusiasm. Those are the three things as a franchise we want to instill in our players. It is hard to think of a poster child that more represents those things for a major league player than Ryan Freel..." - Andy MacPhail

Freel's a good energy guy that will at least make them more watchable. - Steve D.

I like the fact that the guy's a high-energy player - Dave Trembley

Did the Orioles trade for a player or a couple cases of Red Bull?

So I am starting to think that I am missing something here. Let's take a closer look at Freel and see what we can expect from him in 2009.

First, I'm going to assume that Freel will be healthy in 2009. He hasn't been healthy since 2006 but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

He gets on base. Even with a couple of down years, his career OBP is .357. During the seasons where he was healthy, the rate was in the high .360's. That's a valuable talent and when he's in the lineup, he should probably bat at least in the 2 spot. I can't imagine that with Cesar Izturis on the team that anyone else would hit in the 9 spot to give Dave Trembley the "dual leadoff" hitter lineup.

He hits lefties well. Well, at least as well as he hits against anyone. He has a .737 career OPS against RHPs and a .732 career OPS against LHPs. He would theoretically hit lefties better than Luke Scott or Adam Jones (although not by much over Jones). This would make him a nice, not great but nice, platoon option, especially in LF.

Great Glove. Freel's range is phenomenal when he's healthy. He's a top notch defender at 2B, 3B and the outfield. (The only place where he lacks a bit is in CF but he's still above average. Fantastic range. He'll be a great defensive replacement and will flash the glove nicely when he fills in.

On top of all this, he has a great outfield arm. I have no idea if he has a cannon like Nick Markakis but it must be very accurate. Defensive metrics aren't prefect but by this measure he's as good as anybody. His rep is the same.

(By the way, Buck Martinez seemed to think that Freel "will bunt more" than Brian Roberts. Roberts bunts about 2 times every 100 plate appearances. Freel bunts about 3 times per 100 PA. All that adds up to 4 or 5 times more over the course of a full season. Sure, that's more but I don't think it's a stark difference.)

So Ryan Freel brings a great glove, an ability to get on base and can hit hit lefties better than a couple of our other outfielders. A nice utility player. But am I excited? Not really.

Speaking of energy, I'll leave you with another player whose GM thinks he'll bring a lot of energy to the club. Right.

We do think a change of scenery will help him immensely. We've got a pretty good pitching staff. I think he's a guy who will work well with that staff and develop that staff and have renewed energy." - Walt Jocketty

More Cabrera

Daniel Cabrera's pitch location from last night:

Tons of fastballs and, for the most part, right around the plate. "Here it is. Can you hit it?" seems to be the prevailing philosophy.

The hits:

Nothing out of the ordinary here. The pitches were up a little but he lived there all night and they only manged one extra base hit. Nasty, nasty fastball.

The good Cabrera/bad Cabrera split is not as pronounced as it was last year. When he's off, he generally battles and give the team something to work with. He has only given up 6 runs or more 3 times and only three times has he failed to go at least 6 innings.

He's a league average innings eater. A decent third or fourth starter at this point. Unfortunately, he's our second best starter!

*****

Ramon Hernandez hit .273 in June and OPS'ed .796. He'll need to keep hitting like that (and more) to overcome that dreadful start but it's good to see some of those well-hit balls finding the holes now.

*****

More later...

Ramon Hernandez Is Actually Awesome (and other collected tidbits...)

I was going to write a post about everythig that is wrong with Ramon Hernandez in 2008, speculate that he's injured or getting old and ultimately was going to recommend that Guillermo Quiroz get a few more starts in his place.

Then something funny happened as I looked closer at Razor Ramon. I found out that he is having one hell of an April.

This is hardly the descriptor one would use for a player sporting a batting line (AVG/OPB/SLG) of .208/.247/.416. I have noted that Hernandez has made the most of his hits by coming through in the clutch and is among the team leaders in RBI but in general, I thought he was having a really poor start.

However, as I was digging around I looked at the line drive percentage (LD%) of the Oriole batters and saw Ramon leading them all. How was this possible? It's possible because Hernandez has been smoking the ball all season and been hitting them right at the opposition. In other words, he's just been incredibly unlucky.

Hernandez has had a Batting Average on Ball in Play (BABIP) of .191 so far. Generally, a batter can expect his BABIP to be about his LD% plus .12. Adam Jones, for example, has a LD% of 21.4% (.214). Add .12 and you get an estimated BABIP of .324. His actual BABIP is .329.

Ramon's LD% is 25.4% (.254). Adding .12, his BABIP should be .374, nearly doubling the actual .191 he sports now.

There's more. JC Bradbury created a stat several years ago called Projected OPS (PrOPS) which creates a batting line based on peripheral batted ball data like percentage of line drives, home runs, ground balls, etc. According to PrOPS, Ramon Hernandez batting line should be something like this: .314/.348./.506 for an OPS of .855. That number would put him in the top 25 in the AL and he would be far and away the best hitting catcher in the league.

Ramon Hernandez is blistering the ball and it's only a matter of time before things start to go his way. Look for great things from Ramon in May (assuming good health) and if you have a fantasy team, consider stashing him on your bench.

*****

While we're talking about PrOPS, expect Kevin Millar (OPS .671) to also get appreciably better (PrOPS .804).

Expect "Spanky" Huff (OPS .814) to get a lot worse in the short term. Huff sports the fourth worst LD% of any regular in the AL (9.7%) so that batting average should be falling precipitously any week now.

*****

Most defensive metrics point to the 2008 Orioles fielders as just average this year. But their Defensive Efficiency Ratio (DER) is a league leading .732. That means that the fielders and pitchers are working together to become a sum greater than the parts and converting 73% of balls in play to outs. That kind of run prevention can take a team a long way.

*****

David Appelman of FanGraphs.com has compiled new statistics to quantify plate discipline. Some Oriole highlights:

O-Swing% - The percentage of times a player swings at balls outside of the strike zone. Nick Markakis ranks 6th in baseball behind such "good eyes" like Frank Thomas, Albert Pujols and Pat Burrell. Nick only swings at bad pitches 12.04% of the time and the only other player in their early 20's who is even in the ballpark with Markakis is A's first baseman Daric Barton (12.95%). That's incredibly impressive for a player starting their third full season in the majors.

As you might imagine, Adam Jones swings at the most bad pitches (28.39%) and is swinging away at a team-leading 52.95% of all pitches total.

Brian Roberts makes contact 90.11% of the time he swings away, including a Vlad Guerrero-like 78.05% on balls outside of the strike zone. Amazing bat control.

*****

It's been awhile since I've harped on John Maine, a pitcher I hate through no fault of his own. Maine is 2-2 with a 3.58 ERA so far this season for the Mets but his WHIP is 1.55 and his FIP stands at 4.71. You don't win for long putting that many people on base, especially when you are a flyball pitcher.

After the All-Star break last season, Maine went 5-6 with a 5.53 ERA contributing mightily to the Mets collapse down the stretch. Look for his first half number to approach these pretty soon, he's heading for a fall.

They Did It Again...

Before Friday night, Carlos Pena was o-5 with four strikeouts against Jamie Walker. Oh, how times have changed.

First, here's the break on the pitches by Walker to Pena in the fateful 7th on Friday night.

The graph stands in counterpoint to Roch Kubatko's assertion that Jamie hung a breaking ball to Pena. The ball broke at least as well as anything else he threw that night. Pena just crushed a good pitch.

Saturday was a different story. Walker threw a belt-high fastball on the inside part of the plate and Pena turned on it and lined it into the rightfield stands. I suppose he was trying to sneak one by but I'm guessing he wanted to keep that ball down.

(As an aside, I wasn't the only one who thought Roch was being snarky with Jamie Walker. The comments on that blog entry later in the day had many replies remarking about the same thing.)

But the Orioles were not to be denied tonight as Ramon Hernandez out-Pena-ed the Rays, smashing a Dan Wheeler fastball over the leftfield fence to give the O's a 3-2 with 2 out in the top of the ninth.

Hernandez is only batting .194 but he's making it count. He is second on the team with 7 RBI this season.

Daniel Cabrera gave one of those performances that will break your heart later in the season. An outing like that makes you start believing. More on that later...

With the win, the Baltimore Orioles retain sole possession of first place in the AL East.

Base Hits: 2/18/2008

Damn, I love Spring Training!

The Baltimore Sun has a nice article on Orioles top prospect Matt Wieters. Also, check out the great photos from Ft. Lauderdale. Ramon Hernandez does look to be in great shape this season. A nice little tour of Ft. Lauderdale stadium on the video clips as well. Makes you want to be there, huh?

*****

SS Alex Cintron signed a minor league contract with the Cubs. Another potential competitor for Luis Hernandez falls away.

*****

Adam Jones arrived early to Spring Training and is looking to win over his new teammates.


*****

Dave Stockstill's passport is going to be getting a good workout. And that's a good thing.

*****

A really good, if heartbreaking, article by Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun on the 5th anniversary of the death of Orioles pitcher Steve Bechler.

The Crystal Ball '08: Ramon Hernandez

After a really good Oriole debut in 2006, Ramon Hernandez put up disappointing numbers (and attitude) in 2007.

To be fair, Hernandez battled the Oriole Oblique Strain(copyright 2006) and a groin injury and probably wasn't healthy until late in the year. Still, Hernandez was one of the better offensive and defensive catcher in the AL in 2006 and the severe dropoff in his play was not expected.

A year after he had thrown out 64% of opposing baserunners, he gunned down fewer than 23% in '07. His OPS dipped more than 100 points (to .715) and easily had his worst year at the plate is since 2002.

Now, being the eternal optimist that I am, I am predicting a strong rebound for Hernandez in 2008. Why?

I think he's healthy now. He hit .241 in the first half but hit .273 after the All-Star break. His slugging was still down but in September he hit .324 with 3 homers and posted an OPS of .852. A strong finish = fully healthy.

Second, he still loves to hit at OPACY. Even in a dismal season, he hit .278 with 4 homers and a .752 OPS at home last year. Those are pretty good numbers for a catcher.

Third, I'm a sucker.

But really, adding health to a friendly home park and that's got to equal good things for Ramon, right? Rest him a bit more this year (Guillermo Quiroz is no Paul Bako), give him some games at DH and we should see the Ramon of 2006.

Hernandez will have every opportunity to regain his form if for no other reason than there is no other alternative anywhere in the organization. Matt Wieters is realistically a full year away and there's no other viable catcher in AAA ready to take a shot. Here's hoping Ramon will be a bright spot this season.

5 Keys to the Season Revisited: June

It's June, let's look at the progress:

1. The O's lower their ERA by a full run this season

A 4.35 ERA was the goal and as of today the team ERA is 4.39. The pitching has slipped lately but considering the injuries the staff has sustained, we'll call this a goal met for now.

2. Markakis hits 25

Nick is on a pace for 21 homers. While that falls short of the goal, he is on pace for 46 doubles too. Pretty good slugging although he has been up and down. He slugged .524 in May but is only slugging .403 for June. I expect him to come around even though he is falling a bit short now.

3. Increased production from LF

Our leftfielders have only hit .253 with 1 HR all season. Our LF's OPS'd .681 last year and this year they are OPSing a measly .638. Anemic is not the word. It's a huge gaping hole in the offense.

Worse, when you combine this with the enormous dropoff in production from Corey Patterson in center, (our centerfielders are OPSing an abysmal .578) everything in the outfield left of Markakis is absolutely killing our lineup. To put it into perspective, Paul Bako is OPSing .558. Horrible.

4. Melvin Mora circa 2004....or at least 2005.

After a pretty good start, Melvin was producing at 2005 levels but has slowly drifted down and looks more like the 2006 version lately which is completely unacceptable. I don't expect Mora to continue to hit in the .240's all season so I am still hopeful he will rebound.

5. Health

Health has not been on Baltimore's side this season. Ramon Hernandez has missed significant time leaving the terrible Paul Bako to pick up the slack (which he hasn't). Jay Payton has not been great but a healthy Payton all year would have really helped our dismal LF production. Kris Benson, Jaret Wright and Adam Loewen went down early and none is likely to return this season.

It's not the biggest factor for the O's failures this year but it certainly hasn't helped.