Circles of Losing, Trends, Three True Outcomes, Melmosity and More

Last night will go down as a Circle 2 loss in Ben's 9 Concentric Circles of Losing: Not Enough To Win.

They had their opportunities. The Orioles had plenty of chances last night to win the game but couldn't get that extra hit, that long sac fly to score the man at third or that timely extra base hit to take the series from the Yankees.

On to Tampa. Tampa has greatly improved this season but not for the reasons people were predicting during the preseason. It was supposed to be the young offensive talent that was to carry this team to playoff contention. Instead, it's been the young pitching while the offense has still been trying to find itself. The good news for the Orioles is that the Rays pitching has slipped a bit after a stellar April. This is hardly an unbeatable team.

*****

Three True Outcomes - the Three True Outcomes in baseball are the strikeout, the walk, and the homerun. These are the outcomes that don't involve the defense or footspeed. It's just batter vs. pitcher to determine the outcome.

Some batters have embraced this method more than others to become legends of TTO. For the Orioles, Mickey Tettleton comes to mind. Elsewhere, Adam Dunn, Rob Deer and Jack Cust have embraced this "all-or-nothing" approach while still maintaining a good batting eye. So I decided to grab what I believe to be the highest TTO average seasons in Oriole history. The only two Orioles I knew that I would see on this list were Mickey Tettleton and perhaps Sam Horn. Some of the names were surprising.

                   Year   AB   HR   BB   SO   TTO%
Mickey Tettleton   1990  444   15  106  106   51.1%
Sam Horn           1991  317   23   41   99   45.5%
Mickey Tettleton   1989  411   26   73  117   44.6%
Jim Gentile        1961  486   46   96  106   42.6%
Cal Abrams         1955  309    6   89   69   41.2%
Boog Powell        1964  424   39   76   91   41.2%
Boog Powell        1966  491   34   67  125   40.5%
Jeff Manto         1995  254   17   24   69   39.5%
Chris Hoiles       1993  419   29   69   94   39.3%
Randy Milligan     1990  362   20   88   68   39.1%

 

As expected, Mickey Tettleton is the TTO king and Sam Horn comes in with the second highest TTO% for a season in Orioles history. Tettleton was so much fun to watch and would routinely walk and strikeout over 100 times each during a season, a rare talent. He was sent to Detroit straight up for P Jeff Robinson, one of the worst trades in the history of the franchise. Tettleton was a productive hitter for several years after the trade and Robinson...well, you probably know about Robinson.

Sam Horn had the potential to be a Tettleton-type slugger, albeit with more power. He never developed that batting eye to let the really bad pitches go.

Jim Gentile. A classic example of a TTO season was 1961. Should have remembered that. Also should not be surprised that Boog Powell show up on this list a couple of times.

Who is Cal Abrams? Abrams was a backup OF who played all three defensive positions for a terrible 97 loss team. He seemed to realize that while he was still a good fielder, his ability to hit was really slipping. So he seems to have decided not to make outs and walked a remarkable 86 times in only 407 plate appearances. It wasn't enough. 1955 would be Cal's last full season in the majors.

It seems that a 30-year old Jeff Manto arrived in Baltimore with the idea that he had better start swinging for the fences if he wanted to stick in the majors. In a way, he was right. 1995 was his best offensive year (108 OPS+) but he paid the price by striking out 69 times in 89 games. He was off to Boston the next year and went back to a more contact-making approach.

Chris Hoiles had a real breakout season in 1993 (the fact that he was not considered for the MVP that year is criminal...). When he made contact, good things happened but he struck out 94 times.

Randy Milligan was a mild surprise. I never remember Milligan as a guy with the skill set to draw 88 walks.

*****

I watched Miami play Georgia Tech last night and saw top prospect Miami 1B Yonder Alonso. He hit two homers but looked terribly mismatched against the lefty relievers they deployed against him. Miami can flat out hit throughout the lineup.

*****

The Wayward Oriole has made a significant scientific breakthrough. He can now measure Melmosity.

*****

Song of the Week: The Replacements - "Bastards of Young" Enjoy!

Stomping The Yankees

The top of the first last night was just about as close to baseball heaven as you can get.

7 runs against Mike Mussina to knock him from the game having retired only two batters. 3 RBI for The Truth. Derek Jeter commits an error. Jeter pouts. What a start!

But honestly, the whole game was like baseball heaven. 12-2. Beats 30-3 any day.

When is Derek Jeter going to man up and admit he can't play short anymore? It's getting embarrassing.

And I loved when Cabrera hit Jeter on the wrist and sent him to the lockers. Hit him right on his stupid little Michael Jordan wristband. Fantastic.

Luke Scott's bat put bad juju on the ball. It kept missing Yankee gloves. When he laid wood on the ball it could not be caught. Hits one to Jeter that he threw high. Hit one to Damon that fell from his glove. Hit one over the fence. They couldn't even throw at him properly.

By the way, retaliation is one thing but even the Yankee announcers thought it was bush league to throw at Scott's head. Especially Ken Singleton.

What slump? Ramon Hernandez is hitting above .300 for the last two weeks.

Round two is tonight. Enjoy watching the hottest team in baseball!

Q&A With MLB.com Writer Jonathan Mayo About His New Book, "Facing Clemens"

This is kind of a book review but with a different twist. The book is called "Facing Clemens" by Jonathan Mayo. No, it's not a rehash of the whole steroid mess. It's a look back at Roger Clemens' career between the lines...told by the hitters who had to face him.

What's the Oriole connection? Well, Cal Ripken, Jr. faced Clemens more than any other batter during his career and he sat down with for a very in depth interview about what it was like facing arguably the best pitcher of his generation.

Jonathan Mayo is a senior writer for MLB.com. He joined Major League Baseball’s official website in April 1999 and has covered every facet of the game. More recently Jonathan has focused his efforts on covering minor league baseball and, notably, the baseball draft. Mayo worked on the broadcast team assembled for ESPN’s coverage of the first televised baseball draft in 2007, interviewing draftees after their selections.

Jonathan was kind enough to participate in a Q&A about his book. Here it is:

Dempsey's Army: Examining a great pitcher’s career through the eyes of the opposing batters seems to be a pretty unique format for a baseball book. Where did you get the idea to write about Roger Clemens from this angle?

Jonathan Mayo: To give credit where it’s due, it was the publisher’s idea. They had done a pair of boxing books – “Facing Ali” and “Facing Tyson” – and felt the format would translate well to baseball. Clemens seemed to be the perfect subject at the time due to the length of his career and the level of his success.

DA: This book does not focus on steroids or the Mitchell Report. Indeed, you must have been in the middle of some of these interviews when the Mitchell Report was released. Did the report change the tone of the book at all or were you able to keep it strictly between the lines?

JM: Actually, the book was completely done before the Mitchell Report came out. So while there was a little helplessness when everything happened, there also was nothing I could do. Looking back, it’s sure been interesting timing, but I’m glad in a way that it is what it was meant to be: just a simple, pure baseball book.

DA: Cal Ripken, Jr. did not hit particularly well against Clemens during his career and he struck out against him more times than against any other pitcher (17 times). Ripken is known to be a standup guy but he couldn’t have been excited to sit down and talk about his struggles against Clemens. How did you talk him into it?

JM: I asked. Seriously. I had had the opportunity to do an interview with him for MLB.com when the NY-Penn League All-Star Game was in Aberdeen. That went really well and I think that helped pave the way. I think – or at least hope – that he liked the concept of the book. His recall for their matchups was uncanny and I think it’s the strongest chapter in the book as a result.

DA: Ripken said, “He was just a serious competitor. I know that some pitchers pride themselves on being a little intimidating, where they’ll move you off the plate. Certainly Roger had that ability to move you back and move you off the plate, but to me, he was a consummate professional and under control at all times.” Was this just a very nice way of saying Clemens would fire one in at your hip without batting an eye? Were other players you interviewed for this book so diplomatic?

JM: I think the thing Ripken appreciated was that while he could knock you off the plate, he was never a guy looking to hurt you, at least in his opinion. He always knew where the ball was going. That’s one of the things that makes his early career so amazing. He was a pure power pitcher, but with command. It was an amazing combination of skills at the time and I think Ripken had a lot of respect for what he could do. Other players did tend to take that aspect of things in stride. Maybe it’s old school thinking now, but a lot of players felt that getting knocked down was just a part of the game. In some ways, it was a badge of courage to get knocked down by Clemens.

DA: You have an impressive list of players that you interviewed for this book. Who surprised you as an interviewee? Is there anyone you would have liked to talked to but couldn’t?

JM: For obvious reasons (think 2000 World Series), I really wanted to talk to Mike Piazza. But he wasn’t interested. I had thought Spike Owen would’ve been a good one – he played with Clemens at Texas, then was on the Mariners team that struck out 20 times against him in 1986, only to get traded to Boston for the postseason run that season. But I never was able to connect with him. Surprises? All were good, really. I’d never really spoken with Chipper Jones at length before this and he was simply amazing and had Ripken-like recall. Maybe the most surprising was Koby Clemens. I thought that would make for a nice little chapter and we had such a good and interesting conversation that it turned out much better than I anticipated.

DA: You interviewed Phil Bradley who was the 20th strikeout victim during Clemens’ dominating game versus Seattle. Ripken struggled against Clemens most of his career but recalled a three-run homer against Clemens on Opening Day in 1989 as one of the few times that he got the best of Roger. How ironic is it that Phil Bradley was one of the men on base when Ripken hit that shot?

JM: That’s the beauty of baseball, isn’t it? Even within that 20-strikeout game, Bradley pointed out that the Mariners weren’t even totally aware of what was going on because they were leading for much of it and they were really focusing on getting the win. Imagine what the reaction would have been had Clemens set that record and actually lost the game!

DA: So after all this research, what’s the best way to get a hit off of Roger Clemens?

JM: Swing early, I guess. The one common theme, even as he evolved as a pitcher, was to get him early in the count. Especially after he added that splitter, if you fell behind, you were in big trouble.

DA: OK, I’m going to pick your brain about the Orioles’ prospects. True or False: Adam Jones will be a star player.

JM: True. Give him some time. He’s learning on the job. When all is said and done, you’ll be quite happy.

DA: Excepting Matt Wieters, what Oriole farmhand will be the next regular contributor for the big club?

JM: Next? Instead of going with someone who’s close – literally the next – I’ll stay there in Frederick. I think Jake Arrieta’s going to move pretty quickly. Heck, might as well just keep him and Wieters together. Seems to be working so far, doesn’t it?

DA: The farm system has been strengthened by the offseason trades and the 2007 draft but still has a long way to go. What player do you expect Baltimore to draft in the 2008 amateur draft?

JM: There are several players that could fit into the O’s plans with the No. 4 pick. In my first crack and projecting the top 10 picks, I had them taking University of San Diego lefty Brian Matusz, who’s much more than a pitchability college southpaw. He’s got some serious stuff and could be a top of the rotation type quickly. If they wanted to go bat, they could go with University of Georgia shortstop Gordon Beckham or maybe South Carolina first baseman Justin Smoak.

Jonathan Mayo's book "Facing Clemens" can be purchased here on Jonathan's website.

http://www.jonathanmayo.net/

Thinking About The Draft...

To continue Thursday's thought, Jay Payton only got one hit all weekend (a homer) and it came off a lefty. He went 0 for whatever against the righthanded pitchers he faced. Just saying he needs his weaknesses masked...

*****

Here in Georgia, there's a lot of good college baseball being played. I am hoping to get out to see some of the games in the NCAA Regional Tournament this year. Until then, the amateur draft is coming up and I've been watching some of the top SEC and ACC to see some of these guys who might be future Orioles.

I was watching Georgia vs. Georgia Tech yesterday, specifically to see a player who might be the best in the country, Georgia SS Gordon Beckham. With the number 4 overall pick, the Orioles will have a very good shot at drafting Beckham and the farm system could surely use a top shortstop prospect. He went 2-4 with a walk.

Beckham is really smooth in the field, like he's on ice skates. He ranged way to his left, picked up the ball on a bounce and flipped it perfectly to the second baseman to start the double play. Smooth as silk.

But don't take my word for it. Here's a few highlights from a game against Clemson. Note the fielding...



He also ranks 1st or 2nd in 6 offensive categories in the SEC and is in the top 10 in 12 overall.

The two players who stood out for Tech were actually freshman.

RHP Deck McGuire is a 6'6" freshman who throws a fastball in the low 90's, throws a wicked 12-to-6 curve and has an 82 mph changeup. He need to work on his control but seems to know how to change speeds and worked out of a couple jams without losing his cool. He's gone 8-0 in a real tough SEC.

SS Derek Dietrich has great range and a great bat. He's hit .333 and slugged .623 in his first year of collegiate ball. He also ranked 3rd in RBI in the ACC.

I think you may be hearing from these guys in a few years...

The other top prospect in this game was Georgia RHP Josh Fields. He came in to preserve the 3-2 Georgia lead for the win, striking out two in the ninth for the save. Serious heat.

How to Make Jay Payton Look Awesome (and trade him...)

First, I present the headline for yesterday's O's game on ESPN.com:

Manny's snag, high-five steal O's thunder

Hey, ESPN! There's a school called Fordham University. Some people call it FU. That's right ESPN, FU.

Anyway, far be it for me to tell the great Dave Trembley what to do. (That's not sarcastic at all, I think he's doing an excellent job...) But he's making a big mistake that is affecting the Orioles on the field and in the front office.

As I mentioned yesterday, Jay Payton can only do two things well at this advanced stage of his career: serve as a passable defensive replacement and mash lefthanded pitching.

It's an evolution that has been happening gradually over the past 3 or 4 seasons but the transformation is now complete. Jay Payton is a guy you call off the bench to pinch hit against lefthanded relievers or give him spot starts against lefty starters.

If Dave Trembley would start deploying him as such, Payton will succeed and get the attention of contending teams in the National League. Good pinch hitters are not easy to come by. A veteran who could pinch-hit (like Payton) could be seen as a commodity come the trade deadline.

But only if you start his "branding" now. He's a righthanded bat off the bench who can rake lefties and a fine defensive replacement. Start using him that way now and it'll pay dividends in the box score and maybe get you a young minor league arm that is worthy of pitching in the Oriole bullpen in 2009.

Spreading The Magic

I looked for this last night but leave it to someone from the Oriole Magic blog (in this case, Heathir Irvin) to find it first.

I'm posting it here because the magic needs spreading:



Bring on the NATS! Bring 'em on! I smell blood!

The Nats are really terrible. If they weren't in the NL with a bunch of other terrible teams...they might be on their way to losing 100 games.

Their pitching staff is third worst in the NL in runs allowed, they only hit .235 and OPS .668 as a team. That's like having whole team of Brendan Harris' batting for you. Hardly imposing.

Sticking My Head In To Say Hi...

...since I haven't posted anything of substance in two and a half days. Been too busy trying to learn MySQL and some rudimentary Dutch (don't ask) to form much significant Orioles thought.

Until today.

Inspired by the O's mini-sweep of the Boston Red Sox, I had to pen an open letter to substitute Red Sox manager, Brad Mills.

Dear Brad,

Just a little note to thank you for giving us the opportunity to take these last two games from you. You don't know what wins like these mean to a struggling franchise like the the Baltimore Orioles and your generosity is greatly appreciated.

Really, beating Josh Beckett would have been enough for us. Victories over one of baseball's top pitchers just aren't expected and we were thankful enough to see the team catch him on one of the rare days when he was quite hittable.

But today was just too much. You shouldn't have! With the bases loaded, the Orioles were trailing 3-2 in the 7th with two outs. Jay Payton was at the plate and, well, let's just say that Birdland was less than optimistic that a guy hitting .220 would end up the hero.

But Brad, you had pity on us. You took out righty Craig Hansen and brought in lefty Hideki Okijima. At his advanced age, Jay Payton can only do two things; play a passable defensive leftfield and mash lefthanded pitchers. Here's the splits for Payton...as if you didn't know!

                 vs. RHP           vs. LHP
Payton 2008  .216/.259/.216    .250/.250/.542
 

Those aren't Ruthian numbers against lefties but at least it gave us a fighting chance. Dave Trembley couldn't have planned it better himself...even if he actually had bench players to use.

Again, thanks for handing over the sweep on a silver platter today. We know Terry Francona wouldn't have been nearly as generous.

Your Friends,

The Oriole Faithful

*****

Daniel Cabrera - mentally tough.

Baltimore Orioles: First Quarter Report

With an off day today, the Orioles have essentially wrapped up the first quarter of the season. So how are they doing?

First, let's discuss the record. The Orioles stand at 19-19. That's .500 at the quarter season mark for a team that was nearly universally thought to be well on their way to losing 100 games in 2008. Some thought it would be worse than the 1988 Orioles or at least in the ballpark. This team now has to go 43-81 the rest of the way to reach that goal. I just don't see it.

I thought this team would be slightly better than the 2007 version but figured they would struggle early and get better. They have been decent early with many indicators pointing to the team getting better still. Is a winning team a reasonable expectation? Maybe not. Flirting with .500 certainly is.

Pleasant Surprises

Brian Roberts remains with the team. He may not be here in August but I didn't expect him to see Mother's Day with the club.

Daniel Cabrera's performance.

George Sherrill. I liked the addition of Sherrill but had no idea he could be a closer or do it so well. Wayward O did though.

Brian Burres holding down a spot in the rotation and doing pretty well.

Jim Johnson, Randor Bierd, Dennis Sarfate and Matt Albers aiding the veterans to give Baltimore a credible bullpen.

Disappointments

The offense as a whole. I have detailed that they are hitting better than the numbers say but it is still pretty frustrating that these guys can't consistently get hits.

Adam Loewen on the DL. He'll be back but you have to wonder if he'll ever be healthy enough to learn how to pitch.

Steve Trachsel. Trax is a placeholder and that was the intent when he was brought in but he has done little to hold on to that spot in the rotation he has.

Shortstop. Turns out Luis Hernandez couldn't field either. He has looked good at second base though.

Luke Scott with only one homer. Leftfield in Camden Yards is cursed. It's the Curse of B.J. Surhoff. Ever since The Warehouse traded Surhoff to Atlanta at the 2000 deadline, nobody has given us consistent play in left. (OK, B.J. came back and did it for a couple of years but he was only a part-timer at that point.) Granted, Scott is still an upgrade from what the O's have trotted out the past few seasons but I expected the guy to slug at least .400.

In my pre-season look at the Orioles, i identified 5 reasons to be optimistic:

Improve Outfield Production

Although I am a bit disappointed with Scott's bat so far, he is OPSing .727 which is a big improvement from the .631 OPS Oriole leftfielders put up last year.

Adam Jones isn't there yet. He's OPSing .631 compared to .713 from Oriole centerfielders last year. But he'll get to at least that production by season's end.

Markakis has struggled a bit with his average but is still OPSing about what he did last season (.852 vs. 847).

Jay Payton? He's been bad overall (.655 OPS) but against lefties is OPSing .792. I really wish Dave Trembley would stop giving him ABs against righthanders.

The outfield isn't there yet but Adam Jones will improve.

The Bullpen Can't Be Any Worse? Right?

Correctamundo. Trembley has handled the pen better and managed to build a pretty effective relief corp.

Rebounds

Aubrey Huff has rebounded a bit. Still waiting for Ramon Hernandez.

A Better Bench

Kind of a moot point with the team carrying 13 pitchers until very recently but no it's not any better than last year. We shall see what Freddie Bynum and Alex Cintron can do.

A Decent Manager

Considering that very few things have been clicking at the same time this season, Trembley has done a pretty good job. He has the team at .500 (which is one game above their Pythagorean Record) while still getting the youngsters the majority of the playing time.

His recent decision to go with a four-man rotation (for the time being) shows he's willing to make unorthodox decisions to mask his team's weaknesses.

The Next Quarter?

They survived the road but now you have to survive the AL East. Over the next month there will be lots of games against the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays. No pushovers (save Washington) until the Pirates come to town a month from tomorrow. The good news is that outside of the Red Sox, all the teams in our division are pretty flawed right now.

It's a tough task but the next logical step for the Baby Birds to get this team back to respectability.

Base Hits: 5/9/2008

Sucker that I am, I am now solidly back on the Daniel Cabrera bandwagon. Complete game? Only one walk? Oh yeah, I'm on the D-Train.

As if to highlight his bad luck at the plate, Ramon Hernandez lined out hard his first two at bats and hit a grounder deep in the whole behind third where Tony Pena, Jr. made a great play that robbed him of a single. His only hit was a fluky broken bat single to center. I'm guessing he'll take them any way he can get them these days.

I'm starting the Church of Freddie:

Amazing what being a shortstop not named Hernandez or Fahey will get you in 2008. So happy to hear the Bynum is now the starting shortstop...

*****

I was watching the Royal feed of the game last night. The announcers said that Brian Roberts had won a Gold Glove which, of course, has never happened. How can you get something like that wrong?

Also, they talked to Royals pitcher Brian Bannister twice during the game. Bannister is going to make a great coach or GM when he's done playing. The guy has a lot of knowledge about the game and is able to communicate it wonderfully.

*****

OK, OK. I was wrong about John Maine. How was I supposed to know he would develop a strikeout pitch? Crap.

*****

The Oriole Trade Monitors are updated with the latest Win Share data from this season. The Bedard and Tejada trades were obviously made with an eye to the future but the Orioles are getting equal value for the present as well.

*****

Coming up next week, more analysis of the shocking turnaround of Daniel Cabrera, how Brian Burres continues to prove me wrong and more BHI stuff.

Song of the Week: Feeling rather political with the national elections gearing up. Here's James McMurtry, one hell of a songwriter. Have a great weekend!

Big Homer Index Revisited

FanGraphs.com is slowly putting together a whole bunch of WPA data for decades past. When it is done, it would be interesting to compare my made-up stats with who actually did hit the most big homers in Oriole history.

What's the Big Homer Index (BHI)? Look here. And remember, it's grounded in reality but all in fun.

Chris Hoiles - 151 Career Home Runs

Chris Hoiles was a natural for this "study" because he always had the reputation of hitting the homer when nobody was on base or when it didn't much matter, at least the first half of his career.

BHI shows that Hoiles did hit a lot of solo shots (89 out of 151 career homers were solo). He also hit a bunch of homeruns when the game was already decided (21 homers with the Orioles up by 4 runs, 29 when they were up by at least three) but that's not the whole story. A full 25% of Chris' career homers put the team ahead and another 11% tied the game. Add three walk-off home runs during his career and Hoiles fares very well on the index.

BHI - 240


Brady Anderson - 210 Career Home Runs

Brady has a natural disadvantage in BHI because he was a leadoff hitter. Anderson hit a ton of solo shots (148) but only led off the game with a homer 23 times so I'm not sure things are skewed against him quite as bad as you might think.

In addition to the high number of solo shots, he hit 23% of his home runs with the team either up or down by four or more runs.

What saves Brady's BHI is the 72 homers (34%) he hit to give the team the league and the lone game ending homer he hit against the Twins on April 13th, 1996.

Overall, not too shabby for a leadoff hitter.

BHI - 138


Brooks Robinson - 268 Career Home Runs

Brooks Robinson is the standard bearer for BHI prowess, at least up to this point. Brooks hit 8 walk-off homers, double the number of Cal Ripken despite trailing Cal by nearly 200 career home runs. Only 40 of his home runs came with the Orioles up or down by 4 or more runs and 46% of his homers either tied the game up or gave the team the lead. This doesn't even count the postseason!

I can't imagine anybody topping Brook's BHI. He certainly took pitchers deep when it mattered the most.

BHI - 495


BHI Leaders - Oriole Career
Brooks Robinson - 495
Chris Hoiles - 240
Cal Ripken - 197
Brady Anderson - 138
Jay Gibbons - 42

More to come...

Giving the O's Some PrOPS...and Reavealing the Real Problem With This Team

Last week I wrote a post about Ramon Hernandez and how he is hitting better than his Mendoza-esque batting average would indicate.

It looks like it's catching.

          Actual Batting Line      PrOPS Batting Line
Roberts     .263/.353/.421           .288/.374/.432
Mora        .257/.306/.412           .284/.330/.441
Markakis    .270/.395/.451           .290/.409/.510
Millar      .224/.315/.344           .274/.358/.438
Huff        .266/.341/.452           .265/.337/.450
Scott       .286/.366/.418           .252/.337/.353
Jones       .231/.272/.359           .250/.291/.370
R.Hernandez .202/.234/.364           .302/.330/.465
L.Hernandez .243/.304/.257           .276/.336/.340
 

So far, only Aubrey Huff is hitting about what he should be hitting based on the batted ball data. Adam Jones is close but he should have slightly better results at this point.

Luke Scott is the only player who seems to be destined for a correction down. Indeed, that may be what this slump Luke's been in actually is, a correction to the kind of numbers he will actually put up.

Everyone else is underperforming their PrOPS scores. It can't last. There is going to be some upswing in the offense barring an injury. Again, look for Ramon Hernandez, Kevin Millar, Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis to come out of this funk pretty soon with modest increases from Melvin Mora and Luis Hernandez. (Of course, you could replace Luis and spell Mora with Scott Moore every so often and goose the numbers up that way...)

The offense is not great but it is not as bereft as it looks right now. Dave Trembley needs to leave these guys in the lineup and it will work itself out.

Their baserunning on the other hand...I haven't found statistical evidence of this but there can't possibly be another team in the majors who has been picked off, thrown out stealing or thrown out trying to take an extra base more than the Baltimore Orioles.

More than hitting, fans should be concerned about the fielding on this team. Brian Roberts is near the bottom in the league for fielding by a second baseman. Ditto for Luis Hernandez. Melvin More has been OK. Millar has been bad. Ramon has been passable behind the plate but leads the league with 4 throwing errors. (The outfield defense, in fairness, is pretty good across the board.)

The Orioles are going to play a lot of close games this year so the team needs to find solutions to it's defensive woes (especially up the middle) if it hopes to be respectable.

Watching the Game....

...and it's so frustrating watching these guys hit the ball right at defenders!

This team is not this bad offensively. It will get better. But they can't buy a break these days...

Just had to get that off my chest.

Around the Oriole Blogosphere: 5/7/2008

Before I start the trip around the blogosphere, this quick fact. The Orioles are 1-5 in their last 6 games but the pitching staff has an ERA of 3.48. Obviously, the offense is letting the team down at the moment but the 4 errors in the last 6 games isn't helping either.

More on all that later...

*****

Amber Theoharis reports that Adam Loewen could be back on the mound as soon as next month.

When Loewen returns, that could be the end of Steve Trachsel as an Oriole. The only reason he's here now is that the Orioles don't want to rush some of their young pitchers but now with Guthrie, Cabrera, and Burres seemingly entrenched as starters, Garrett Olson off to an encouraging start and Matt Albers breathing down Trachsel's neck, he's going to get squeezed out. And that's a good thing.

*****

I was going to blog about this myself but two other Oriole bloggers have done it for me. Jonah Keri wrote about "loser dynasties" on ESPN.com (where the Orioles belong) and stated among other things that the Oriole's ETA for a winning season is 2012. Matthew Taylor from Roar From 34 and Ben at Oriole Central both wonder about the depth of Keri's analysis of the past and the prospects for the future.

*****

Ben also looks at the sorry state of the Oriole offense and ponders a future without Steve Trachsel.

*****

Meanwhile, Matthew Taylor ponders what the present would have been had the Orioles traded Tejada for Ervin Santana and Erick Aybar

*****

Dave (aka Desert O of Weaver's Tantrum) is hiking the Appalachian Trail and has reached Hot Springs, NC. A good read and coming soon...a bear raids Dave's camp!

Dave has started giving me the itch to strap on my pack and start training for a hike again. Not the whole Appalachian Trail but I do miss backpacking and haven't done any since I left Maine. I started training in February but family illnesses put that on the backburner. Time to start again, I've got the bug.

Evidently, Dave has started Enchanting Sunshine's mind to wander to the trail as well.

*****

Speaking of Enchanting Sunshine, she has split off her Oriole musings to a different blog called Oriole Fanatic, at least for now. (edit: Looks like the new blog is now called Sixteen Gold Gloves...for now)

*****

Anthony is tired on the same old results from the offense at Oriole Magic.

*****

Wayward O wants no more "styling" on the basepaths from Ramon on the basepaths and less knee-jerk reactions from Oriole fans. Oh, this post too with a hilarious picture of Melvin Mora vs. the Angels...

*****

Pressbox Online has an article on Oriole pitching coach Rick Kranitz.

*****

SC thinks the Orioles have seen the last of .500 this season.

Base Hits: 5/2/2008

Well, that sucked. The Orioles lose their first series in over two weeks and now hit the road for another brutal west coast roadtrip. Since the big league club isn't so hot, let's look at the farm. TopProspectAlert.com has started doing minor league stat line updates every morning. Here's the Orioles' highlights from last night:

Chris Heintz - BAL 3-4, RBI, .368avg
Mike Costanzo - BAL 2-4, 2B, 3B, 2R, .213avg
Bradley Bergesen - BAL 8IP, 1ER, 6H, 1BB, 1K, WIN 0.60ERA
Kyle Schmidt - BAL 7IP, 1ER, 3H, 1BB, 5K, 3.32ERA
Anthony Martinez - BAL 3-4, HR, 3RBI, R, .284avg

*****

Randor Bierd goes on the DL which is really not good. Bierd has been one of the bright spots this April and looking like he would be at the core of the new young relief corp. Get well Randor. We'll see you in June.

*****
Dave Rouleau of Baseball Digest Daily has a post about Nick Markakis. Well, actually he has a post that pulls liberally from a story the Baltimore Sun ran. I missed the story in the Sun but it's a heartbreaking story of how Nick lost one of his friends far too soon.

*****

Just saw Ironman and it was excellent. Robert Downey, Jr. is an excellent Tony Stark, Jeff Bridges is a credible bad guy, Terrence Howard was great and even Gwyneth Paltrow had her moments as "the girl" which is not an easy task. Better than the first Spiderman. Go see it. (as if it needs my endorsement...)

*****

Song of the Week: A co-worker loaned me the new Erykah Badu album and it is shockingly good! Here's "Honey" off the album entitled "New Amerykah". Great concept for a video but this isn't even close to being the best song off the album. Have a great weekend!

Erykah Badu

Second Guessing the Second Guessers

Some examples from last night's game. People second guessing Dave Trembley for putting in kid pitcher Bob McCrory for his major league debut in a two run game:

hmm..
if you reeeeaaaallllly wanted to win this game… down 3-1 .. perhaps you bring in a tested relief pitcher. maybe try and keep us in the game.. not experiment, you know?
now, if we were down 6-1, i figure maybe try it out. Or if we’re up 6-1, bring him in.
Bad move throwin him out there in a game that was somewhat in reach.
by Y Not

Manager Dave Trembley made an interesting call when he decided to let Bob McCrory start the seventh inning. A pitcher making his major league debut in a two-run game. Not an ideal way to break him in...Trembley has been pushing the right buttons this season, but he's open to a little second-guessing tonight.

- Roch Kubatko

Now, to be fair, the general tone has been more of a "s**t happens" mood than a "s**tty manager" tilt but just so nobody gets any ideas, I thought I'd look at how Dave Trembley throws his young relievers into the deep end of the pool.

Dennis Sarfate - Dennis made his Oriole debut on April 4th. He had been in the majors before but only for a couple mugs of java. He ends April 2008 only 3 innings short of his previous career total.

Sarfate was called upon with the O's leading Seattle 3-2 with two outs and one on in the top of the 6th and squared off against Adrian Beltre. He struck him out.

It was still only a two run game in the top of the 7th when he walked Brad Wilkerson and then struck out Jose Vidro. (Wilkerson was thrown out on a steal attempt...)

Jim Johnson - Johnson had exactly 5 innings of major league work when he was called up a couple of weeks ago. In his first game, he pitched an inning at the end of a 6-2 loss to Tampa.

But the very next day he came in in the 6th with the Orioles holding onto a 3-1 lead against Toronto. He pitched 2.3 scoreless innings.

Randor Bierd - Bierd had never pitched above AA before this season and he only compiled 45 innings at that level.

Bierd made his major league debut on April 2nd. It was the top of the 5th, the Rays led 5-3, there was nobody out and the bases were loaded. Bierd induced a double play ball and a groundout to limit the damage. He then went on to pitch a scoreless 6th and the O's would come from behind to win the game.

What's the difference between these scenarios and last night's debut of Bob McCrory? Last night it didn't work out. It happens.

But more importantly, Trembley has to do it even if he doesn't think it'll work out. Repeat after me: this team is a work in progress. I do not care what the standings say, all these kids need to play and any veteran on this team should be traded if the opportunity arises. It is more important for Trembley to find out what McCrory is made of than worry about winning a game you are already losing by two runs.

Trembley's reasoning for sending McCrory out there, according to Roch:

Manager Dave Trembley explained his decision to use McCrory in the seventh inning by saying it seemed like a good situation, with the Rays sending up the bottom of their order and the Orioles trailing.

Seems logical to me. The kid has to debut sometime. Right? And isn't it nice to have a manager who seems to be thinking before making a move?

This teams Pythagorean Winning Percentage is 13-14 and Trembley has them at 15-12. they were outscored by 6 runs in April, yet have a winning record.

I'll defer to Dave for now...

Ramon Hernandez Is Actually Awesome (and other collected tidbits...)

I was going to write a post about everythig that is wrong with Ramon Hernandez in 2008, speculate that he's injured or getting old and ultimately was going to recommend that Guillermo Quiroz get a few more starts in his place.

Then something funny happened as I looked closer at Razor Ramon. I found out that he is having one hell of an April.

This is hardly the descriptor one would use for a player sporting a batting line (AVG/OPB/SLG) of .208/.247/.416. I have noted that Hernandez has made the most of his hits by coming through in the clutch and is among the team leaders in RBI but in general, I thought he was having a really poor start.

However, as I was digging around I looked at the line drive percentage (LD%) of the Oriole batters and saw Ramon leading them all. How was this possible? It's possible because Hernandez has been smoking the ball all season and been hitting them right at the opposition. In other words, he's just been incredibly unlucky.

Hernandez has had a Batting Average on Ball in Play (BABIP) of .191 so far. Generally, a batter can expect his BABIP to be about his LD% plus .12. Adam Jones, for example, has a LD% of 21.4% (.214). Add .12 and you get an estimated BABIP of .324. His actual BABIP is .329.

Ramon's LD% is 25.4% (.254). Adding .12, his BABIP should be .374, nearly doubling the actual .191 he sports now.

There's more. JC Bradbury created a stat several years ago called Projected OPS (PrOPS) which creates a batting line based on peripheral batted ball data like percentage of line drives, home runs, ground balls, etc. According to PrOPS, Ramon Hernandez batting line should be something like this: .314/.348./.506 for an OPS of .855. That number would put him in the top 25 in the AL and he would be far and away the best hitting catcher in the league.

Ramon Hernandez is blistering the ball and it's only a matter of time before things start to go his way. Look for great things from Ramon in May (assuming good health) and if you have a fantasy team, consider stashing him on your bench.

*****

While we're talking about PrOPS, expect Kevin Millar (OPS .671) to also get appreciably better (PrOPS .804).

Expect "Spanky" Huff (OPS .814) to get a lot worse in the short term. Huff sports the fourth worst LD% of any regular in the AL (9.7%) so that batting average should be falling precipitously any week now.

*****

Most defensive metrics point to the 2008 Orioles fielders as just average this year. But their Defensive Efficiency Ratio (DER) is a league leading .732. That means that the fielders and pitchers are working together to become a sum greater than the parts and converting 73% of balls in play to outs. That kind of run prevention can take a team a long way.

*****

David Appelman of FanGraphs.com has compiled new statistics to quantify plate discipline. Some Oriole highlights:

O-Swing% - The percentage of times a player swings at balls outside of the strike zone. Nick Markakis ranks 6th in baseball behind such "good eyes" like Frank Thomas, Albert Pujols and Pat Burrell. Nick only swings at bad pitches 12.04% of the time and the only other player in their early 20's who is even in the ballpark with Markakis is A's first baseman Daric Barton (12.95%). That's incredibly impressive for a player starting their third full season in the majors.

As you might imagine, Adam Jones swings at the most bad pitches (28.39%) and is swinging away at a team-leading 52.95% of all pitches total.

Brian Roberts makes contact 90.11% of the time he swings away, including a Vlad Guerrero-like 78.05% on balls outside of the strike zone. Amazing bat control.

*****

It's been awhile since I've harped on John Maine, a pitcher I hate through no fault of his own. Maine is 2-2 with a 3.58 ERA so far this season for the Mets but his WHIP is 1.55 and his FIP stands at 4.71. You don't win for long putting that many people on base, especially when you are a flyball pitcher.

After the All-Star break last season, Maine went 5-6 with a 5.53 ERA contributing mightily to the Mets collapse down the stretch. Look for his first half number to approach these pretty soon, he's heading for a fall.

Base Hits: 4/30/2008

For the second time in two weeks, the Orioles battled it out for first place with a division rival. Garrett Olson had a fine 2008 debut as the Orioles beat the Rays 7-4. The Baltimore Orioles are now in first place by percentage points. We'll take it.

*****

ESPN the Magazine has released their Fan Satisfaction Rankings for all 122 major sports franchises. The Baltimore Orioles came in 114th.

They published a quote from yours truly under the Orioles summary but did not give the name or web address of my blog despite me giving it to them at least three seperate times!

Such is life....

*****

Goodbye Greg Aquino and Brandon Fahey, hello Garrett Olson and Bob McCrory.

Aquino has been terrible. Period. He'll not be back.

Fahey did not hit which was expected. But his fielding was not good either which was not really expected. He added almost no value to the team when he was on the field.

Expect Luis Hernandez to follow those guys to Norfolk soon. Like Fahey, Hernandez has not hit but he is also one of the worst defensive shortstops in the AL this year. The errors aren't bad but his range has been poor. I would expect Alex Cintron to be in Baltimore before June.

Matt Albers will get the start tomorrow.

*****

Ramon Hernandez has struggled at the plate but has been making the most of his infrequent hits. With only 16 hits, he has driven in 14 RBI.

*****

As a footnote to yesterday's Yankee post, A-Rod will land on the DL with his strained quad. And there was much rejoicing.

*****

The Blue Jays are 1-8 since they released Frank Thomas. I don't know what that means but he obviously wasn't the only issue with that lineup.

How The Orioles Can Win The East 2008: The Case Against the Yankees Revisited

We all know that for the Orioles to do well this season that other teams in this division will have to slip up along the way. I figured I'd revisit some of these pre-season predictions (wishful thinkings) along the way to see how the rest of the division is stacking up.

First up, the Yankees

Like Last Year, the Pitching Staff Will Be a Problem

Chien-Ming Wang is pitching like the ace the Yankees need. I thought Pettite would be just average this year but he has pitched very well. Mussina has been inconsistent but has been able to keep his ERA below 5.00. The kids, Phillip Hughes and Ian Kennedy, have struggled mightily.

I'll stick by my pre-season prediction that Wang will be good, Mussina will finish with an ERA closer to 5.00 than 4.50 and that the kids will continue to struggle, at least until the All0Star break. The only wild card here is Andy Pettite as he is fully capable of continuing his current production.

On the whole though, the Yankee pitching staff has been a problem thus far.


Jorge Posada Falls to Earth


Posada has only played in 18 games and has hit rather well (.302/.333/.476) for a catcher. The problem is that he can't actually play catcher right now. Posada just went on the DL for the first time in his career and has made it clear that he will not return to action until he is ready to field his position:


"I’m not playing first base," Posada said. "I’m a catcher. We’ve got seven first basemen."


Posada's shoulder injury is not considered season ending but just the fact that it is being discussed in those terms means the Yankees catcher will be missing a significant chunk of the season.


The old catcher is breaking down, just as I predicted.


Derek Jeter is the Worst Fielding Shortstop in Baseball


Depending on which defensive metric you choose to believe, Jeter is either in the middle of the pack or completely dreadful with the glove. I'll give this one another month to allow the number to draw a better conclusion.


Who's On First?


The batting line for all Yankee first basemen this season: .194/.309/.419


That's an OPS of .728 for what is a premier offensive position. That production puts them in the bottom third of the league...right down with the Orioles (ugh).


Nobody's on first.


Melky's the Man?


So far, yes. Melky is OPSing .852, already has 5 homers and is playing a pretty good centerfield.


Well, they can't all go your way.


Conclusion

Before the season I said:

If things are dicey early in the year, this team could literally implode. Youngsters manning crucial positions in the lineup and the pitching staff, surrounded by fragile old veterans who may not deliver the results their reputations promise.

Yeah, that's pretty much what's happening.

At The Game: Chattanooga Lookouts - 4/28/2008

The Chattanooga Lookouts are the longtime AA affiliate of the Cincinnati Reds and play in the relatively new AT&T Field built in 2000.

We got there early since my son likes to get autographs. The usher showed us the door that connects the clubhouse to the field and said that would be the best place for autographs. The players were very accommodating and had practically covered the ball with signatures by the time we were done. Easily, 12 players signed for all the kids that were waiting. Very fan friendly. Orioles management...are you listening?

Two distinctive features of the park:

A

When a Lookouts player hits a home run, the Chattanooga Choo Choo emerges from the centerfield wall accompanied by lots of steam from the smokestack, lights and whistles too. My two-year old daughter enjoyed that very much.

Also, the bullpens are built into the outfield wall so you can't see the pitchers warming up. There is only a small window in each bullpen so the pitchers can watch the game. It was an odd configuration.

The Carolina Mudcats were in town and featured several top prospects for the Florida Marlins including CF Cameron Maybin and LHP Aaron Thompson.

The next day we happened upon this sculpture outside of the Hunter Museum of American Art:

Who says baseball can't be a work of art? The sculpture is by John Dreyfuss, a sculptor from Washington, D.C. It's called Full Count.

Pictures of the game and more below...

<

Chattanooga Lookouts

Disrespectful Fans: Dave Trembley Wants To Get Medieval On Your Ass

The Orioles are not to be trifled with. These comments from Dave Trembely regarding fans running out on the field Friday night are as ominous as they are fantastic.


"I wish I could have taken them in the back room," he said. "I would have kicked the snot out of both of them. I'm serious. You think I'm kidding you. I don't have any patience for disrespect. These guys bust their [rear] out there every night, and for two lunatics to come out there like that -- who do they think they are? Turn them over to us one time. I'll show them where the other side of the fence is. I believe in respect and common courtesy. Those two idiots last night did not show any of that."


All of which leads us to the first poll ever on Dempsey's Army. Which current Oriole would you like least to meet in a dark alley?



Gun and Bible Toting Luke Scott ("You read the Bible much, Brett?)
Gator Hunting Jamie Walker
Administrator of Respect Dave Trembley
Night-Life Loving Aubrey Huff
Brandon Fahey (hey, sometimes it's the littlest guy you have to watch out for...)



Of course, after these two White Sox fans assaulted a Royals coach a few years back, I think one could reasonably claim self-defense for taking out a fan...

Roberts Saves The Day

It's becoming a recurring them for the 2008 Baltimore Orioles. Pitcher gets hit early, bullpen circles the wagons and holds down the opposing batters, Orioles bats chip away until team is within striking distance and then a big blow allows them to take the lead. Last night, The Truth struck back in the 7th to give the Orioles the lead. And according to Yahoo Sports, he did it with his eyes closed.

When are they going to fix that?

Anyway, that wasn't enough as Ichiro tied the game with an unlikely two run homer and left it to Brian Roberts to hit a equally unexpected solo shot in the top of the 8th to give Baltimore the lead for good as George Sherrill closed it out for his 8th (?!?!?!) save of the year. Yes, Sherrill is on a pace for 50+ saves this season.

Adam Loewen is reporting forearm pain which explains a lot. His delivery was all over the place this season. He essentially gave a mea culpa and asked for the team to give someone else a shot in the rotation. I imagine the Oriole will DL him and that Matt Albers gets a shot to start for awhile.

Yawn. I had to go in and work late last night which allowed me to watch the whole game on my laptop but very much has me feeling like a nap this afternoon.

Being lazy, here's the Song of the Week and I'm signing off. "Landed" by Ben Folds. Later.

Random Thoughts on the Last Two Games...

Wayward O has covered this nicely but I had to throw in my two cents.

Lots of lashing out at Dave Trembley for leaving Jeremy Guthrie in the game so long Tuesday night. Really? My complaint about Trembley has been that he doesn't leave his starters in long enough. I'm certainly not going to come down on him for erring on the other side of the equation.

But the real issue here is expectations. Some people are acting like this is a team of contenders. They're not. Three weeks ago, 100 losses were being touted across the O's blogosphere and general baseball press. Now that the team started 11-8 (now 12-9), people are acting like Trembley should be trying to keep the O's in the race. They are wrong.

Trembley gave his pitcher a chance, a pitcher who said he could get the job done. (Enough of the "every pitcher wants to stay in" argument. Tired.) Trembley hasn't seen what Guthrie can do in this situation so he decided to find out. Dave gave him the opportunity and Guthrie couldn't deliver. I don't expect Trembley to make the same mistake twice.

The point is, this is Trembley's first full season as manager with a lot of players who are in their first or second year in the big leagues. He is still learning what these guys may or may not be capable of and that's exactly what he should be doing in 2008, wins and losses be damned.

This team will be very fortunate to get to .500 by years end. It's important to remember that.

Nobody knows what kind of team the Orioles really have. I'll cut Trembley some slack while he works it all out. But if he does it again, I'll kill him for it.

*****

Wayward O also posted this defensive gem by Jeremy Guthrie but you must watch it again. It may be the best defensive play you see all year. (Of course, Ramon Hernandez fired the ball into rightfield right after that, negating everything.)

*****

Anyway, I have admitted I am a sucker when it comes to Daniel Cabrera and while I'm not sold by this latest run of success, it is easy for me to get carried away. I'll be taking (yet another) closer look at this later.

*****

"Spanky" Huff is an idiot. It's a good thing he can hit home runs because he certainly doesn't seem to have a head for the game. Anybody see him practically run over Juan Samuel as he ran through the stop sign and got thrown out at home? If Juan Samuel's not sending you, you have to be dead to rights. Juan hasn't been conservative enough of his tenure as thirdbase coach. Home runs or not, Huff must go and Scott Moore must take his place.

*****

Josh Kalk is a wiz with PITCHfx data and has created "player cards" for each pitcher's 2008 season thus far. Most interesting among Orioles is Jim Johnson's card where his similarity score shows him to be closest to Josh Beckett. I'm not sure how he calculates similarity but any comparison to Josh Beckett cannot be bad.

Sweet Swings or Garbage Kings?

I was going to write a post as a farewell to Jay Gibbons similar to ones that I wrote about Miguel Tejada and Erik Bedard. It was just to be a quick note to show the highlights of his Orioles career.

Unfortunately, highlight material was pretty lacking for Jay. What was his biggest moment? In 2002 he hit a solo shot off of Ugueth Urbina in the bottom of the 9th to tie the game against the Red Sox (a game that the O's would eventually lose in 15). That's it. A nice moment to be sure but there's no more like it.

I liked Jay Gibbons as a player. Excepting the injuries, I thought he was a useful player for a few years for the Orioles. (And he was a good guy...) But for a slugger, he had few moments when his contributions resulted in big plays that changed the course of the game. A lot of his extra base hits came during "garbage time".

Ben at Oriole Central got me thinking more about this when he posted an Ode to the Garbage Home Run and correctly identified Jay Gibbons as a man who did not have many big moments with the long ball during his major league career.

And all that got me thinking about a way to quantify that.

Now I have. It's a new stat called the Big Homer Index (BHI). I was going to call it the GHI (Garbage Homer Index) but the stat gets bigger as the "clutchness" of the homers increase. You'll see what I mean in a minute.

(For any of you who hate or love stats when it comes to baseball, understand that this is just for fun! It's completely unscientific and the numbers are based purely on my own preferences. Something created for diversion and discussion, nothing more.)

If you don't want to know how I established each player's index, scroll down until you see Jay Gibbons' name.

Each component is based on a percentage of each player's career home runs. This way, a marginal slugger who hit 100 home runs can be compared to a player who hit 400. Homers hit when the team is up by at least 3 runs or down by at least 4 runs count against the player. Also a high percentage of solo shots can count against the batter too. The average solo home run rate for the American League is typically just over 57% so any percentage above or below 58% (divided by 2) will count against or for the batter respectively.

Go ahead and tying home runs count for the batter as do walk-offs. Walk-offs count 8 times the value of the other types.

So the formula is:

((% Go-Ahead Homers)+(% Tying Homers)+((Game Ending Homers)*8)+((.58-(% of Solo Homers)/2) - (% Homers When 3+ Ahead) - (% Homers When 4+ Down)) * 1000 = BHI

I am so happy I will never have to try to explain that again...

Jay Gibbons - 121 Career Home Runs

Surprisingly, Jay doesn't have a huge percentage of his homers coming in "garbage time" (up by 3+ runs or 4+ runs down) but he clearly falls short when it comes to homers to tie the game or put the team ahead. Zero walk-off homers also hurts his case.

Jay hit solo shots at an almost 60% rate which didn't help his BHI either.

Gibbons lived in the middle. He hit a lot of solo homers when the score was 5-3 or 3-5. Contributions to be sure but nothing much in the clutch or in game changing situations.

BHI: 42

Cal Ripken - 431 Career Home Runs

A man with the flair for the dramatic, Cal gets a big boost from 4 walk-off home runs. Ripken had a larger percentage of homers during "garbage time" than Jay Gibbons but he also hit a much higher percentage or go ahead and tying homers during his career. He also hit fewer solo shots than the league average.

Put it all together and Cal laps Jay Gibbons as would be expected. These two numbers should give us a couple of nice reference points for future evaluations.

BHI: 197

Base Hits: 4/21/2008

Nothing wrong with taking two out of three from the Yankees. Good stuff.
The bad news is that the Baltimore Orioles have played horrific baseball on the road this year and are getting ready to embark on a long road trip.

For anybody waiting for the O's to fall back to Earth, the next couple of weeks could be the time...

*****

The Jays released Frank Thomas. Various reasons given for this but even with Thomas' slow start this year, the Jays offense is suddenly less imposing.

Just to cover this angle, I think Thomas will still have a decent season for somebody but I don't think the Orioles need him...

******

A-Rod injured his quad which has to be troubling on a team that's already had its share of nagging injuries.

And if the Orioles do nothing else this year, they have brought the Joba Chamberlain situation to a head in the Bronx by taking the series with the Yankees. Hank Steinbrenner wants him to start while Brian Cashman wants him to remain in the bullpen...for now. Hank also had this to say about Mike Mussina:

"[Mussina] just needs to learn how to pitch like [45-year-old Phillies pitcher] Jamie Moyer," Steinbrenner said, according to The New York Times.

Oh sure, Hank. It's just that easy! And Daniel Cabrera should "just learn" to pitch like Nolan Ryan!

*****

Keeping it in the Al East, the Rays' AL Reyes is on the DL. Matt Garza got shelled during a rehab start. SS Jason Bartlett was out of the lineup with a "tired throwing arm". Really? On a shortstop? That sounds fishy to me...

*****

The Red Sox have scored 6.7 runs per game over the last 11 games. That doesn't include today's Patriot's Day game where they have already scored 8. Not looking forward to that matchup...

Feel The Thrill...Orioles!

Hey LaTroy Hawkins! How do you like the Orioles organization now!

I wasn't going to post this weekend but...how great is this?

Markakis hustling to second on a Giambi error and then gunning down Bobby Abreu at the plate later in the game on Friday. When are these opposing baserunners going to learn? Our rightfielder is deadly with his arm. And from the looks of it, maybe out leftfielder is too.

Give up some love for Daniel Cabrera! Nice game! Just keep the ball in the yard as all these homers you are giving up are making me nervous.

Brian Burres proving me wrong, shutting down the Yankees lineup for 5.7 innings. They shut out the Yankees!

Raise your hand if you still think this team is going to lose 100 games.

I keep saying I'm going to enjoy this as long as it lasts but it just keeps going...I'm beginning to take this team seriously.

The Truth Hurts...the White Sox!

Adam Jones. I call him The Truth. For one, he speaks it and for another...he just looks like The Truth on the ballfield.

Tonight he came through is the biggest of situations and had a walkoff single in the 10th driving in Kevin Millar for the winning run.

The O's are playing .500 ball over the past 6 games.

Anybody else sick of "Spanky" Huff yet? Could he come up smaller in big situations? According to Baseball-Reference.com, he's only hitting .125 in "clutch" situations and only .071 when the game is tied. Can't we unload this guy somewhere?

*****

I have to recommend a post from Oriole Central for the second straight day as Ben looks at the Orioles who hit "garbage homeruns" and correctly identifies Jay Gibbons as a guy who goes yard when it doesn't much matter to the outcome of the game.

I have to agree about Gibbons. I was going to (still am at some point) write a post about the five biggest hits of Gibbons career with the Orioles but was quite surprised to see how few dramatic moments Gibbons actually had to, say, Miguel Tejada. A slugger like Gibbons should make a little more impact on a game over the course of several years.

Anyway, Ben's post has given me an idea for a series on former O's and their clutch performances (or lack thereof). Look for more on that later.

*****


We are through 10% of the games. I decided to take a look at how hard our bullpen is being worked versus last season.

Walker 80 G, 43 IP
Bradford 70 G, 57 IP
Sherrill 60 G, 57 IP
Safarte, 60 G, 67 IP
Bierd, 50 G, 100 IP

Here's the pace the five main relievers were on when I blogged about the bullpen on May 3rd, 2007:

Baez - 81
Bradford - 91
Parrish - 81
Walker - 86
Ray - 81

I was afraid that the bullpen was on its way to burnout yet again but this year's pace looks to be a bit more sustainable.

*****
For this edition of Song of the Week, I'll be recommending three versions of one great song. Don't ever say you don't get your money's worth here at Dempsey's Army.

The song is called "Such Great Heights" originally written and performed by SubPop label band The Postal Service back in 2003.

Here it is:



Next, a live version of the song by the sporadically brilliant Ben Folds:



Finally, a way more laid back version by Iron and Wine.



Have a great weekend!


The Postal Service

Ben Folds

Iron and Wine

Miguel Tejada...EXPOSED!

Miguel Tejada has admitted that he is actually 33 instead of his reported 31. He finally fessed up after ESPN's E:60 show obtained his birth certificate from the Dominican Republic and busted him on camera.



Wow.

Add this to the DL stint for Erik Bedard due to his hip and it looks like the O's are finally catching some breaks with some of these trades.

I liked the trades before these developments...