The Crystal Ball '09: Jeremy Guthrie

A big part of trying to guess what a player may be is to examine the past and see where he fits in. There is more than 100 years of baseball history to draw from after all. But that's really tough to do with Jeremy Guthrie because he has one of the most unique career paths for a pitcher in the last 50 years of baseball.

For a guy who never really distinguished himself in the minors and only appeared in 16 major league games before the 2007 season, Guthrie has performed like nobody before him. In last season's Crystal Ball, I could only find three pitchers who had broke into the majors at age 28 who had a similar level of success. After a nearly identical sophomore effort, Guthrie stands alone.

The only guy from last year's list who still bears some resemblance to Guthrie is Jack Sanford, a pitcher from the 1950's primarily for the Phillies and the Giants. He, like Guthrie, came from nowhere to have a very good rookie season for the Phillies in 1957. But he fell back to earth during his sophomore campaign before going on to a respectable 10-year career. (On a side note, Sanford played for the minor league Baltimore Orioles of the International League before breaking in with the Phillies.)

Harvey Haddix broke in at age 27 in 1953 and made a big splash but also fell off a bit during his sophomore season. (Haddix wound up his career in the 60's as a reliever...for the Baltimore Orioles.)

Guthrie has posted back to back seasons seasons of 125 ERA+. No pitcher of his age or experience (barring players coming in from Japan) has had that kind of success and consistency. We are witnessing one of the more distinctive careers in the history of major league baseball.

What can we expect from Guthrie in '09? Don't look for a lot of wins. Guthrie is a very good pitcher but he would not be an ace on many teams. The Orioles are trotting out a guy who qualifies as a solid No. 2 against the very best pitchers in the American League. Some of his best efforts are wasted and he has pitched much better than his Win-Loss record would indicate.

Other than that, there's no reason to imagine that Guthrie won't do the exact same thing that he has done the last two seasons.

               W   L   IP   HR   BB   K    ERA
Guthrie '09    9  12  190   24   55  124  3.75
 

Teix is Haunting Me...

I'm really going to let all this "Teix wore his Yankee cap to Camden Yards" angst go at some point. I really am. But Teix keeps finding me and rubbing it in.

I'm just sitting here, half-watching a show about the 1995 season on the new MLB Network and, of course, they spend some time discussing Cal Ripken, Jr. and The Streak. Whose dorky voice do I hear on my TV? That's right, it's Mark Teixeira.

The graphic underneath his disproportionately large head reads, "Mark Teixeira, Grew Up in Maryland".

Here's what he said:

For me, as a kid, Cal Ripken was everything. He could do it all. I loved watching him play, and..and watching him play every single day, every single inning almost, everyday was pretty incredible.

Incidentally, they have talked about Don Mattingly on this show already. No Teix to be heard from in that segment.


Chris "Mad Dog" Russo took Teix to task on his Sirius XM Satellite Radio show on Tuesday. It was pretty funny and I found it therapeutic. (Go here to listen...)

The emperor has no clothes, Mark. We can see you.

Quick Video of Koji Uehara

I don't know, he looks more polished than Josh Towers to me!

O's Sign Uehara, Close to Finalizing Deal

The Baltimore Sun is reporting that the Orioles have agreed to terms with Japanese pitcher Koji Uehara.

Baltimore's rotation is a glaring weakness and the signing helps in two respects.

1) We need competent pitching of all kinds.

2) It gives an early return on the Orioles casting a wider net overseas when searching for talent.

So regardless of how this thing works out, it's a good development for the short and long term.

I know nothing about Uehara so I'll rely on ESPN's Keith Law:

Uehara has, of course, incredible control, and misses bats with a good forkball. It's tough to say how well that pitch will translate here, as American hitters might struggle with a pitch they rarely see, but may also learn to lay off a pitch that often finishes out of the zone. He mixes up his fastball between two-seamers and cutters, but neither pitch has any sink, so while he commands everything to the corners, he's very prone to the home run when he gets too much of the plate.

In an ideal environment -- National League, non-hitters' park -- he could be a midrotation innings-eater because he'll allow so few baserunners. In the American League, he'd be more of a fourth starter, but would have to have some luck keeping the ball in the park to keep his ERA under 4.00.

Two comments: Any pitcher's ideal environment is a National League pitcher's park and if he turns out to be 4th starter caliber, that's still an improvement over what we have right now. We let our other 4th starter caliber pitcher walk and sign with the Nationals.

From NPB Tracker, a blog that follows Japanese baseball:

I actually think that Uehara will be susceptible to baserunners because he’ll be around the plate so much. More troubling is that the HR ball was unquestionably his weakness in Japan, and he’s going to the most HR-friendly park in MLB. On the other hand, he’ll have two good outfielders behind him in Adam Jones and Nick Markakis, which suit his flyball tendencies.

Well, yeah, Camden Yards was the most homerun friendly park in baseball last year but looking at a three year average (usually a better indicator) OPACY is right around 5th or 6th in the majors for giving up homeruns. I'm not downplaying the HR factor but it tends to be overstated at times. Oriole Park is not Wrigley Field or Coors Field, two parks who consistently rank in the top two of HR rates.

And yes, Adam Jones and Nick Markakis help. But Luke Scott doesn't!

I don't have a lot to go on as far as predicting how much better he would be than Daniel Cabrera, but even if he can't keep his ERA under 4.00, even if he has a league average ERA (4.53 last year) I'll take that any day for the reported $5 million a year. I'm going to say that he is a good bet to exceed Daniel Cabrera's production and that alone makes him a fair improvement at a good price.

An encouraging move by The Warehouse. I can't wait to see how it works out.

Mark Teixeira Says Some Very Irritating Things

If you are still upset that Mark Teixeira spurned his hometown team to sign with New York, take solace in the fact that no other team really had a shot at him. You see, Teix has always been a Yankee fan and playing in New York was a lifelong dream.

"There was something about Don Mattingly," Teixeira said. "I would go to Orioles games wearing a Yankee cap. The first time I went to Yankee Stadium I was about eight or nine years old and saw Mattingly play. Donnie Baseball was my guy."

Allow that to sink in a bit. Yankee cap. Donnie Baseball.

"I would wear a Yankees hat. Back in the '80s and early '90s, that wasn't a safe thing to do in Baltimore," Teixeira joked.

It's not safe now. Not for you. Get ready to be something you have never been before. You will be hated. In Baltimore. Probably in Boston. And if you don't live up to expectations, in New York too.

Mark, I was fine with you signing elsewhere. I wasn't shocked it was the Yankees. And frankly, I didn't think tying up so much money in your salary was a good idea for the long term prospects of the Orioles' success. I was indifferent to you before. No longer.

Not only do you coyly hint that you'd love to return "home" to the Baltimore Orioles, not only do you double speak your way from Texas to Atlanta to Anaheim and New York, you actually have the gall to tell stories to the New York media about shunning Cal Ripken, Jr. and Eddie Murray for Don Mattingly and proudly wearing your Yankees cap to Memorial Stadium and Camden Yards. You didn't have to go there. It's a slap in the face to all true Oriole fans.

When you think about baseball you think about the Yankees, at least I did when I was growing up.
- Mark Teixeira

And I don't believe his story for a second. I want to see one photo of a young Mark Teixeira wearing a Yankee cap. It's a damned lie. I dare someone to find one. But you won't. Because Teix is a pathological liar.

True or not, the story is insulting to the tradition of this franchise.

Bob Lorenz is my new favorite Yankee reporter.

BL: OK, Mark. Quick pop quiz for you then. Within 50 miles, how far is it from your folks home to the Bronx?

MT: Oh...I would say...probably 290 miles.

BL: It's 220. But close enough. You'll get a parting gift at the end of the interview.

It was worth it to watch Teix squirm, if only for a second.

So boo him on Opening Day. Longly, loudly and lustily. Mark Teixeira is public enemy #1 for fans of the Black and Orange.

Just drink this in. Here's the full quote form Teix regarding his idol worship of Don Mattingly during his press conference. Enjoy.

Yeah, I think it says a lot about the Yankees organization that a kid that grew up in Baltimore, had season tickets to Baltimore Orioles games, and would cheer for every other player in the world except for Don Mattingly. Don Mattingly was my guy and people say, why not Cal? Why not Eddie? And I say I love Cal, I love Eddie, but there’s something about Don Mattingly. I would go to Orioles games, my dad would take me to O’s games and I would wear a Yankees hat. Back in the 80’s and early 90’s that wasn’t a safe thing to do in Baltimore, but it was worth it. That’s just a part of being a Yankee that there’s something above everything else, no matter where you are, no matter what stadium you’re in, there’s Yankees fans everywhere and being a Yankee there’s nothing better.

Then go look at some of these quotes from Mark over the years about the Orioles:

http://dempseysarmy.blogspot.com/2008/12/mark-teixeira-hometown-boy.html

The Crystal Ball '09: Nick Markakis

Nick Markakis turned is another great season for Baltimore in 2008 and continues his steady improvement at the plate.

Like last year, for your enjoyment, Markakis' hit chart at Camden Yards for 2008.

It's like the Sistine Chapel. It's gorgeous.

Last offseason, I compared Markakis favorably to Enos Slaughter and Ellis Burks and used those players' age 24 seasons to predict Nick's 2008. Here is that projection compared to the actual stats:

                      BA   2B  HR   OBP   SLG   OPS
Markakis Predicted   .309  39  27  .365  .502  .867
Markakis Actual      .306  48  20  .406  .491  .897

 

I thought a few more of those doubles would go over the fence and I didn't anticipate Markakis' batting eye to improve so much in one season but the projection was pretty spot on.

As the season went on, I became more convinced that Markakis is the second coming of Enos Slaughter. Both are/were lefties, both play(ed) rightfield and both are/were very good fielders with great arms, at least when young.

Their bats are very similar as well:

OPS+

            Age 22     Age 23     Age 24
Markakis     106        121        134
Slaughter    105        122        133
   

Spooky, huh?

Slaughter's OPS+ at age 25 was 141. How do we get Markakis there? I'll say:

                BA   2B   HR   OBP   SLG   OPS   OPS+
Markakis '09  .315   40   29  .415  .520  .935   141
   

Add to that his Gold Glove caliber defense in right (he should have won a Gold Glove last year), the Orioles would do well to sign him to a long term contract before Spring Training. It will only get harder once his breakout 2009 is under way.

Jim Rice for the Hall of Fame?

What is the deal with the recent groundswell of support for Jim Rice for the Hall of Fame?

How many of you remember Jim Rice? I watched a lot of Orioles/Red Sox showdowns in the 1980’s and I remember Jim Rice as a plodding slugger, a poor defensive left fielder who was a fair hitter with some decent pop in the bat. While he was a very good offensive player, he never struck me as being a dominant offensive force and didn’t play long enough to reach some “HoF worthy” landmarks. (Admittedly, I don’t remember much of Rice’s peak seasons of 1977-79…)

I could go on about how Rice was no better than Boog Powell, Dave Parker or Dale Murphy but there is a more striking comparison to not only one of Jim Rice’s contemporaries…but to one of his teammates; Dwight Evans.

Remember Dwight Evans? Great player. Is he a Hall of Famer? I think not. But look at the comparison.

The Resumes

             Seasons       H     HR     RBI     AVG     OBP     SLG     OPS+
Rice         1975-89(15) 2452   382    1451    .298    .352    .502     128
Evans        1973-91(19) 2446   385    1391    .272    .370    .470     127
   

Really? These meager differences in offensive numbers mean the difference between immortality and falling off the ballot after three years?

From 1971-1990, nobody grounded into more double plays than Jim Rice. He was in the top ten for strikeouts during that span as well. He was an out-making machine. The power numbers are not great enough to offset those deficiencies.

Considering the fact that Rice was a butcher in left and Evans was a 8-time Gold Glover in right field, you could argue that Evans was the better baseball player over the course of a longer career.

If Rice belongs in the Hall of fame, he needs to get in line behind Dwight Evans; Evans is clearly the better ballplayer.



(One disclaimer; I'm sure none of this is a surprise to Red Sox fans and may be well-covered ground. I just found it to be an interesting contrast...)

Value Over Daniel Cabrera: Mark Hendrickson

I am now on the record that I don't believe Daniel Cabrera will ever be an above-average major league pitcher. What you see now is probably what you're going to get at this point in Daniel's career.

All that said, by any measure, he was still the second best Oriole pitcher of 2008. Forget how disappointing he was as a talent, there is nobody on the current roster who can be expected to replace his 180 innings of 5.25 ERA in 2009. Given that he could have been retained for about $3-4 million for next season, four pitchers (outside of Jeremy Guthrie) in the Oriole rotation needs to surpass the (admittedly) low benchmark of Daniel Cabrera's 2008 season to warrant letting Cabrera go.

The first candidate is 35-year old lefty Mark Hendrickson. The Orioles are projecting him as a swingman/long reliever but as of today, he would fill a position in the starting rotation. Even though I think the Oriole rotation's slogan for 2009 should be "We Take Anybody", Hendrickson is really pushing the concept.

Baseball-Reference.com has a neat tool to normalize a pitcher's stats for league average run support and neutral park factors (for a more detailed look at how the stats are "neutralized", see this explanation).

Mark Hendrickson's stats for 2008, pitching in the National League for the Florida Marlins:

              W   L   IP    BB   SO   ERA   WHIP
Hendrickson   7   8  133.7  48   81   5.45  1.46

Now, Hendrickson's stats, normalized for pitching in the American League, in Camden Yards:

                             W   L    IP    BB   SO   ERA   WHIP
Hendrickson (Adjusted 2008)  5   9  130.7   51   79   6.34  1.60

Just as a reminder, Daniel Cabrera's 2008 stats:

                W   L    IP    BB   SO   ERA   WHIP
Cabrera 2008    8  10   180.0  90   95   5.25  1.61

Mark Hendrickson is NOT a good bet to exceed even Daniel Cabrera's meager output of 2008.

Still more on this later...

Base Hits: 12/29/2008

Interesting factoid: If the Orioles do not retain Brian Roberts and do not pick up Melvin Mora's option for 2010, roughly $47.9 million comes off the payroll for 2010. Just something to chew on.

(Salary data pulled from Cot's Baseball Contracts)

*****

The Baltimore Orioles have officially rejected a plan from Sarasota to relocate their Spring Training home there. Sarasota tried to low-ball the O's after missing out on the Red Sox. 2010 will leave Sarasota without Spring Training ball for the first time in 80 years.

This leaves Ft. Lauderdale and Vero beach as the most likely homes for Oriole Spring Training in 2010.

*****

The Baltimore Sun's David Steele is correct!

*****

If you haven't seen it, read Matt Taylor's Christmas Eve post at Roar from 34.

*****

The Orioles are reportedly close to signing journeyman starter Mark Hendrickson. Not exactly the Mark that Oriole fans were looking to sign this offseason. The Warehouse seems to see him as a swingman but until some other pitcher is signed, he's penciled in for the starting rotation by default. Save for Jeremy Guthrie, all Oriole pitchers will be compared to Daniel Cabrera. More on that later...

Mark Teixeira: Hometown Boy

Mark Teixeira has signed with the New York Yankees.

Let me be the first to say....THANK GOD!

Andy MacPhail:

"The player was an exceptional player, and we sort of broke the rules trying to go after him. But really, the model that we have to follow just doesn't allow us to devote that much of our resources to one player, at least not at the present time."

He is correct. Going after Teixeira was not part of the plan that MacPhail laid out when he came to town. Build from within, focus on pitching and build a solid core before filling holes through free agency. This team is nowhere near the place where it can afford a long term, budget busting contract. You can take those kind of risks if you think you are only a year or two from serious contention. The Orioles cannot say that yet.

A long expensive contract, like the one the Yankees offered, could actually hurt this team in the long run.

Do you think the Rockies are happy that they still owe Todd Helton more than $50 million over the next three seasons? The Rockies signed him to a lucrative 9 year deal before the 2003 season. (Coincidentally, before Helton's age 29 season...just like Teixeira...) That deal looked good for the first three seasons. Not so much since. Long term deals with players approaching 30 rarely turn out very well.

And let's get one thing straight; Mark Teixeira is a very good player...but he is not a great player. He's just not. Compare his career thus far to Todd Helton, Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Jason Giambi, Albert Pujols or even Chipper Jones. Teixeira just hasn't put together the monster seasons for his resume that these premier sluggers have/had by this point in their careers. And I've heard enough of this Gold Glove caliber defense Teixeira plays. Big deal. He's a first baseman. If his glove was really that hot, he'd play third. A slick fielding first baseman in modern baseball is a nice luxury but hardly impactful in any meaningful way.

I've been beating this drum for awhile now but I don't think Mark Teixeira is worthy of being one of the highest paid players in baseball. I just don't. $22.5 million a year. Think about it. You know I'm right.

I've seen this guy up close here in Atlanta. He can be an impact bat but once the losing starts, he begins to lose interest. Think he's going to stay interested if the O's keep losing for a season or two? And there's this from Ted Robinson in L.A.:

the Angels were 66-40 (.622) BEFORE Teixeira, 34-22 (.607) WITH Teixeira. Atlanta was 49-56 with Teixeira and for the record he has played in exactly one All-Star Game.

He's a nice player but he's not the kind of player who can carry a team. Even teams with far more pieces in place than the Orioles.

I am so often wrong in my predictions so I have to reach back to last February when I made this bold prediction:

I'll call it now. If Teixeira leaves Atlanta, he'll be wearing pinstripes in 2009.

Not exactly going out on a limb but far more accurate than Buster Olney or Peter Gammons!

I'll leave you with some choice Mark Teixeira quotes from the past year or so...

There are a lot of teams you may not want to be traded to, but Atlanta was definitely a team I was happy to come play for. I was here for college at Georgia Tech, and even spent a year (living) here after college. That made the comfort level that much greater. My wife, Leigh, and her family are from (Georgia, Habersham County north of Atlanta), and we both went to school here and still have friends living in Atlanta.
- Teixeira on playing in Atlanta

That would really be a dream come true.
- Teixeira on playing for Baltimore, March 2007

The Orioles are close to my heart.
- Mark Teixeira, May 2008

In a year and a half, we'll have some fun conversations. Baltimore, obviously in the future, is a place I'd love to look at.
- Mark Teixeira, July 2007

I thought I'd be here the rest of my career. I really wanted to stay here, but business is business, and it's time for me to move on.
- Mark Teixeira on his time in Atlanta

(They're) the best team in baseball.
- Mark Teixeira on the Anaheim Angels

What Will Daniel Cabrera Look Like as a National?

With Daniel Cabrera moving down the road to the Nationals, I wondered what he might look like next season. Not literally. Literally he'll look like a 6'7" guy from the Dominican Republic with a red cap. But how will he fare pitching in Nationals Park?

To begin, I'll steal some work by Derek Carty at The Hardball Times who did a study earlier this year on the effect that switching leagues had on pitchers. Using his formula on Cabrera's 2008 stats, we may get an idea of what he'll do for Washington in 2009.

               K/9  BB/9   HR/F   LOB%   LD%   GB%   IF/F   ERA   ERA+
Cabrera '08    4.5  4.2    12.7%  72.4%  19.7% 48.0% 7.7%   5.25   86
Cabrera WSN    5.1  3.7    12.9%  72.9%  20.1% 48.3% 7.8%   4.86   88

If you're going to face a pitcher every ninth at bat, in addition to banjo-hitting bench players and defensive specialists, you would expect to have a better ERA. The changes for most of these rate stats are marginal and they go both for and against the pitcher. Where Daniel is helped is by the slight uptick in K's he can expect and a supposed drop in walks. Cabrera has dropped his walk rate every year for the past three seasons but I don't see it dropping this much next season. With less imposing hitters in the lineup, there is less chance of a pitcher "pitching around" batters but I don't think Daniel ever consciously did that. You have to know where the ball is going to pitch around a guy.

Barring the long-awaited quantum leap, Cabrera will provide the Nationals what he provided for the Orioles last year; a mercurial season with more than 180 IP and an ERA+ in the high 80's. Oh, he'll be their second best pitcher too.

(I have a moratorium on the whole Teixeira deal, much like I finally did for Brian Roberts and Erik Bedard trade rumors last season. I'll comment on it once it's done...)

Big Homer Index: Belle, Devereaux and Gentile

What is BHI? Look here...

Albert Belle - 60 Oriole Career Homers

Ah, what might have been. The Orioles signed Albert Belle (on an easy pace for a Hall of Fame career) to a lucrative five year deal just in time for a degenerative hip condition to end Belle's career. How did he do in his two seasons for the Orioles?

More than 25% of his homeruns were garbage homers but that's just above the average. 45% of his homers were either tying or go ahead shots though and less than half his homeruns were solo shots. Overall, it keeps him on the high side of respectable.

BHI - 240


Mike Devereaux - 94 Oriole Career Homers

Go Devo! Devo hit just less than 25% of his homers in Garbage Time, right around average. But for a guy that hit leadoff or #2 for the majority of his Oriole career, his 45% mark for tying/go ahead shots is pretty remarkable. Nearly 2/3 of his homers were solo shots but being a top of the order guy, this is not a bad number. Two walk-offs help the resume as well.

BHI - 333

Jim Gentile - 124 Oriole Career Homers

Gentile was a shooting star who bloomed late and flamed out fast, out of baseball by the age of 33. Gentile was hampered by a Garbage Homer percentage of nearly 30%. But only half of his homers were solo shots, way below average and he had a couple walkoffs too. His rate of tying/go ahead shots was respectable as well.

BHI - 274


BHI Leaders - Oriole Career
Brooks Robinson - 495
Eddie Murray - 469
Rafael Palmiero - 469
Tony Batista - 406
John Lowenstein - 393
Boog Powell - 341
Mike Devereaux - 333
Jim Gentile - 274
Larry Sheets - 266
Albert Belle - 240
Chris Hoiles - 240
Roberto Alomar - 230
Doug Decinces - 225
Brian Roberts - 224
Cal Ripken - 197
Brady Anderson - 138
Rick Dempsey - 136
Jay Gibbons - 42
Jeff Conine - 5
B. J. Surhoff - -64

"Slingin'" Sammy Baugh: 1913-2008

R.I.P. Sammy Baugh.

He was the last surviving member of the inaugural 1963 class of the Pro Football Hall of Fame and revolutionized the NFL with his passing prowess. He is still the greatest quarterback in Redskins history, all these years later.

In case you haven't figured it out, I'm a diehard Redskins fan. No football posts on this site by and large but I'm making an exception for Baugh. I'll be adding to this post with links to tributes and such over the next couple days.

A game account of Sammy Baugh passing for four touchdowns and intercepting four balls as well.

A Posthumous Call For Respect For Sammy Baugh

Olney, Md.: Len,
I was sorry to read about the passing of Sammy Baugh, possibly the greatest Redskin of all time. Don't you think its sad that a player like Sean Taylor is glorified for some hits he made in games, but the respect and historical reverence that Sammy Baugh deserves did not come to him in until after his passing?

Leonard Shapiro: I would disagree on the premise that his historic revelance came after Baugh's death. He was a charter member of the pro Football Hall of Fame, always revered as the greatest Redskins player of all time still known to all the team's fans. By the way, in our book, we listed him No. 2 on our list of all-time great Washington athletes, right behind pitcher Walter Johnson. Probably should have been a tie.

Talking to Sammy Baugh

New York Times Obituary

We won't see the likes of Baugh again

Frank Luska's very thorough look at the life of Sammy Baugh

Thomas Boswell- Baugh: The Texan Who Gave Birth to Redskins Fanaticism

Michael Wilbon - Getting in a Word for Slingin' Sammy

All Teixeira, All The Time

ESPN's Karl Ravech reports that Teixeira is weighing all offers but has "an enormous attraction to the Orioles."

Only mentioning this because this is the first report I've heard where Teixeira is expressing to his agent a preference for Baltimore and not just giving lip service to the local press. Interesting.

Bye-Bye, Danny.

This is just a quick note to acknowledge the departure of Daniel Cabrera. The Orioles non-tendered him over the weekend and appear to have no interest in resigning him at all.

It's the end of the Cabrera era! I had always hoped that the O's would try Cabrera out in the bullpen once they gave up on him being a starter but I guess they thought it was not worth the $3-4 million that he would get in arbitration.

The problem is (and I've said this many times) that I don't know how you can get rid of Cabrera when he was your second best starter last season. I am all in favor of letting Cabrera go once it is apparent that he is no longer one of your 5 best starters. That time is not now. $4 million is a relative bargain to keep him on for one more season.

I'm not arguing that Cabrera is a good pitcher nor am I sure (anymore) that he will ever be a good pitcher. But he is still valuable to this team as currently constructed. This is a BAD MOVE.

There are two circumstances that would make this move OK.

First, there is a plan in place to take that saved money and use it as part of a pool of cash to bring in a couple of free agent pitchers. The candidates that are available are not very attractive but we'll wait and see.

Second, The Warehouse has credible evidence that our young pitchers are further along than they look. Garrett Olson and Radhames Liz didn't look like they were ready to take the next step to me. Brian Matusz may be on the fast track but his performance in Arizona didn't indicate he's ready to grab a starting spot out of Spring Training. Troy Patton and Matt Albers; I like the idea of giving these guys a shot but both are coming off of injuries.

I hope MacPhail is right. But I think we gave up on Daniel one year too early.

Mark Teixeira: Everybody Breathe...

Mark Teixeira has not signed yet and many Oriole fans are freaking out. It's a state of panic really as even completely absurd and unfounded rumors of Teixeira attending the Ravens-Steelers game with Peter Angelos gets serious play in the Baltimore Sun and on MASN.

Easy, people. As I've said before, he's not coming anyway. This will not be some colossal failure on the part of The Warehouse. He has no intention of coming to play for a loser. He's done that already. Even if Baltimore greatly outbids everybody (which would be foolish), he's still not "coming home".(Although, at $20 mil per instead of $25 mil, I'd feel a little better about the deal.)

Secondly, he's hardly worth that kind of money and length of contract. Not for Baltimore. Teixeira is not the kind of guy who is going to rally a team and "show them how to win". He plays hard when he's interested, not so much when he isn't. He'll lose interest pretty fast in Baltimore, believe me. Does anybody think he's Roy Hobbs?

And have we forgotten that one big signing does not mean the team will suddenly start winning? Has everyone forgotten Miguel Tejada already? Can Teixeira pitch? Because last I checked we have one starting pitcher set for next season. One. I don't care if we do a direct swap of lineups with the Red Sox, they'll still finish with a better record next year because of their rotation and bullpen. (More on the pitching later...)

This team is not contending next year, not without a miraculous development from the pitchers in their farm system. There's no sense in throwing a lot of money, over a lot of years at one player. Not yet.

So let's keep this in perspective. If Teixeira does not come to Baltimore, it's not a disaster.

Buster Olney takes it a step further. He says the Orioles should not even be at the table in the Teixeira bidding...and I have to say I agree with him.

But history tells us, over and over and over, that winning -- as in contending -- is what really draws fans to your ballpark, not some shiny bauble. Cal Ripken single-handedly drew fans to Camden Yards at the end of his career. With all due respect to Teixeira, he is not Ripken. He is not Barry Bonds. Few players have that kind of box-office allure...

The Orioles' payroll in 2008 was about $68 million, and if they were to sign Teixeira, that would climb to about $80 million, with the first baseman accounting for a quarter of that. Yet they still would be two or three topflight starting pitchers short of contending with the Red Sox, Rays and Yankees. They still would be two or three top-flight starting pitchers short of contending with the Jays for fourth place.

And I can say the following confidently, having worked as a sportswriter in Baltimore and having some understanding of the multilayered depth of knowledge in the Orioles' fan base: Until the team starts winning again, nobody will show up at Camden Yards. Signing Teixeira would not draw the the O's demonstrably closer to contending because they are so short in starting pitching. In fact, the signing of the first baseman could ultimately hurt them, because in two or three years, as the Orioles' young pitching begins to rise to the big leagues and the team needs pieces to augment the improved rotation, Teixeira's salary would restrict the kinds of moves the Orioles will make.

Yep. Pretty much.

Ryan Freel: Mining for the Value

While there is much rejoicing that we Baltimore fans will no longer have to watch the lackluster efforts of Ramon Hernandez this season, there seems to be a surprising amount of enthusiasm for the centerpiece player we received from the Reds in return. I always had the impression that Ryan Freel was a defensive specialist and light hitting utility player. Am I missing something? Is this guy really going to have more impact on the team than, say, Chris Gomez did for a few years. Gomez was a versatile fielder and a decent enough hitter that he could contribute and not embarrass himself. That's nice but is it exciting? There seems to be a common thread when it comes to Freel's apparent value.


"Adding Freel to the mix in the outfield will help boost the energy on the Orioles..."- Dean Jones, Jr., Baltimore Sun

"Freel, a high-energy player and once the Reds' starting center fielder..." - Jeff Zreibec, Baltimore Sun

"Ryan Freel, if any of you have suffered through my talks in Baltimore, you've heard a lot about effort, energy and enthusiasm. Those are the three things as a franchise we want to instill in our players. It is hard to think of a poster child that more represents those things for a major league player than Ryan Freel..." - Andy MacPhail

Freel's a good energy guy that will at least make them more watchable. - Steve D.

I like the fact that the guy's a high-energy player - Dave Trembley

Did the Orioles trade for a player or a couple cases of Red Bull?

So I am starting to think that I am missing something here. Let's take a closer look at Freel and see what we can expect from him in 2009.

First, I'm going to assume that Freel will be healthy in 2009. He hasn't been healthy since 2006 but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

He gets on base. Even with a couple of down years, his career OBP is .357. During the seasons where he was healthy, the rate was in the high .360's. That's a valuable talent and when he's in the lineup, he should probably bat at least in the 2 spot. I can't imagine that with Cesar Izturis on the team that anyone else would hit in the 9 spot to give Dave Trembley the "dual leadoff" hitter lineup.

He hits lefties well. Well, at least as well as he hits against anyone. He has a .737 career OPS against RHPs and a .732 career OPS against LHPs. He would theoretically hit lefties better than Luke Scott or Adam Jones (although not by much over Jones). This would make him a nice, not great but nice, platoon option, especially in LF.

Great Glove. Freel's range is phenomenal when he's healthy. He's a top notch defender at 2B, 3B and the outfield. (The only place where he lacks a bit is in CF but he's still above average. Fantastic range. He'll be a great defensive replacement and will flash the glove nicely when he fills in.

On top of all this, he has a great outfield arm. I have no idea if he has a cannon like Nick Markakis but it must be very accurate. Defensive metrics aren't prefect but by this measure he's as good as anybody. His rep is the same.

(By the way, Buck Martinez seemed to think that Freel "will bunt more" than Brian Roberts. Roberts bunts about 2 times every 100 plate appearances. Freel bunts about 3 times per 100 PA. All that adds up to 4 or 5 times more over the course of a full season. Sure, that's more but I don't think it's a stark difference.)

So Ryan Freel brings a great glove, an ability to get on base and can hit hit lefties better than a couple of our other outfielders. A nice utility player. But am I excited? Not really.

Speaking of energy, I'll leave you with another player whose GM thinks he'll bring a lot of energy to the club. Right.

We do think a change of scenery will help him immensely. We've got a pretty good pitching staff. I think he's a guy who will work well with that staff and develop that staff and have renewed energy." - Walt Jocketty

Cesar Izturis: Brand New Oriole

The Orioles have reportedly inked 28-year old Cesar Izturis to be their shortstop. 2 years and $6 million.

At this time last year, I was pretty horrified that Izturis was in Baltimore's plans for shortstop. But for the first time since 2005, Izturis played more than 900 innings in the field and his defensive metrics were at a point where he was probably one of the top 2 or 3 fielding shortstops in the NL. He seems to have fully recovered from serious injuries he suffered during the 2005 season.

Offensively...he's a black hole. You could argue that his bat (or lack thereof) negates his excellent fielding. He's a .260/.299/.331 career hitter. He had only 8 Win Shares last season and that includes 4 for his fielding alone. Brutal.

Sadly, he is an upgrade over any of our shortstops from 2008. He may be overpaid at $3 million a year but this is an improvement for the club.

Hernandez is a Red; O's Get Freel and Two Prospects

Andy MacPhail shipped Ramon Hernandez to Cincinnati yesterday for utility man Ryan Freel and two infield prospects.

Matt Wieters has made Hernandez expendable. His defense has declined and his heart didn't seem to be in it for Baltimore last season. Hernandez had really bad luck with the bat last year. His batting line of .257/.308/.406 was in stark contrast to his PrOPS line of .292/.341/.457 and he managed to hit .285/.341/.446 in the 2nd half. He hit the ball hard but didn't catch a lot of breaks. He's still got something left in the tank offensively and he'll be moving to a hitter's park in a weaker league. The Reds may get a good year at the plate from him even if they don't get a good year from him behind it.

Freel is a good glove who can play 2B, 3B and all outfield positions. I don't think he'll be able to hit his way out of a wet paper sack in the AL even if he's healthy and he's expensive at $4 million a year but a good defensive replacement and he's only signed through the end of '09.

I like that MacPhail was able to get some prospects although they are not great ones. Brandon Waring is a 22 year old 3B who hit .270 with 20 homers with the Class A Dayton Dragons. But he struck out 156 times to only 43 walks and at 22 was pretty old for that level of ball. Still, it was an .813 OPS from a thirdbaseman and he could be a late bloomer.

Justin Turner is a light hitting 2B who has shown potential to play other positions. He hit .289 at Chattanooga last year with 8 HR in 78 games and got on base at a .359 clip. Interesting guy who should start at Bowie next season at age 24.

Since we were getting rid of Hernandez anyway, this was a pretty good deal though the real impact is the room made for Matt Wieters, not the players we got in return.

Many O's fans are pretty excited to get Freel but he's not really that great at playing baseball. Great attitude, fine glove, mediocre player.

And now a word about Buck Martinez. I'm in the minority, I think, when it comes to Buck. People seem to hate Rick Dempsey and find him annoying as a color guy. I enjoy Dempsey enormously and find Martinez cringeworthy. People complain about Jim Palmer talking about what things were like when he played but at least he was a Hall of Fame pitcher! Why do I have to listen to Buck talk about his lackluster playing career or his pitiful managerial record?

Anyway, Roch talked to Buck Martinez about the Hernandez-Freel trade and in between the hurky-jerky gesticulations and spasmic shoulder shimmies, Martinez said this about Ryan Freel:

"He plays with a lot of energy. He's kinda like Brian Roberts with a lot more enthusiasm, you know, he does the same types of things."

Really. Brian Roberts with more enthusiasm? First, if I was Brian Roberts, I would be enormously offended. You think I am Ryan Freel with less enthusiasm? Really? Roberts has slugged over .400 for the last four years. He's hit double digit homers in three of the last four seasons. He has played in 138 games or more for the last 5 seasons. He hit 50 doubles last year!

Freel has never slugged .400, has a lower batting average than Roberts for his career (.284 vs. .272) and only beats out Brian's OBP by .002! Guess all that enthusiasm saps your energy. I'll take the more reserved Roberts, thanks. There's more:

"He'll bunt more than Brian Roberts. He won't steal as much but he'll steal key bases. He's a great baserunner."

Forgetting the fact that Roberts has stolen 226 career bases to Freel's 142, Freel has a career success rate of 74% to Brian's 79%. And Freel's numbers have regressed over the last three years (77%, 65%, 60%) while Roberts have gotten better (83%, 87%, 80%). There's little to support the assertion that he's a "great" baserunner. And outside of the fact that Freel can play secondbase too, he's nothing like Brian Roberts.

Freel's a nice utility player but let's not get carried away.

Base Hits: 12/9/2008

Billy Ripken comes clean about his infamous "F-Face" bat pictured on the 1989 Fleer baseball card. Originally, Ripken said he was pranked by teammates. Turns out, Ripken wrote the "offending" phrase himself...

*****

Kevin Millar would like to come back to the Orioles, even in a part-time role. But evidently he is interested in playing for Seattle as well. My guess is that Millar wants to keep playing...anywhere that will let him.

*****

The Chicago Tribune reports that a four-way deal between the Cubs, Padres Orioles and Phillies is close to completion. I don't chase a lot of Hot Stove talk but the crux of the deal for Baltimore would send Garrett Olson to San Diego and Felix Pie would come in from the Cubs. Also:

The key for that deal to work is for the Phillies or Orioles to take Jason Marquis, with the Cubs agreeing to eat some of his salary.

That's an interesting wrinkle. Marquis is not a good pitcher. But he's only under contract for one more season and if the Cubs were willing to eat 3-4 million dollars of his $9 million dollar salary, he might be a serviceable stopgap.

*****

MASN has announced that the Hot Stove Show is returning December 12th. Roch Kubatko will be hosting with Jim Hunter and Phil Wood. I'm glad that Roch will be on the show, the more work for him the better. I'm even happier that Phil Wood will be on the show. Wood is an excellent baseball commentator and I listened to him for years on D.C. radio. From the press release:

Phil Wood has decades of experience covering Washington and Baltimore sports teams including the Bullets, Capitals, Nationals, Orioles, Colts and Ravens. Wood is widely considered to be one of the region's brightest baseball historians, offering fans both historical perspective and insight into today's breaking sports news.

Absolutely. Look forward to seeing it.

Base Hits: 12/8/2008

Still not much going on in the Oriole offseason but...

I though it was interesting that the Orioles signed minor league catcher Adam Donachie. If you've read this blog from the beginning, the Orioles selected Donachie in the Rule V draft and he was with the Orioles during Spring Training 2007. I was a big supporter of Donachie (at least over Paul Bako, an offensive black hole whose defensive prowess paled in comparison to Donachie's) and think he could help the club in a couple years as a defensive specialist.

The Orioles have no organizational depth at catcher (after Matt Wieters) so Donachie has a good opportunity here. Donachie has never hit for average but showed decent plate discipline and some pop.

ISO for the last 5 years:

Year   Level  ISO

2004    A     .043

2005    A+    .173

2006   A+\AA  .135

2007    AA    .144

2008    AA    .087

 

2008 was not a good year for Donachie but he has shown some raw power over his minor league career. Donachie should start the season at Bowie and, perhaps in a couple years, he can be the Doug Mirabelli to Matt Wieters' Jason Varitek. (Chronic Red Sox haters; please forgive me for the comparison but it's the best analogy I could think of...)

*****

Over on Roch Kubatko's blog, there is some discussion about trading Ramon Hernandez to the Cincinnati Reds...for Ryan Freel. A couple of comments:

I would take Freel on the O's. He can play many positions and I like the way he plays the game.

I'm going with Ryan Freel. He can play 2B, 3B and OF well. Even some games at SS.

OK. If he could play SS, I would be OK with this. The truth is that Freel has never played a game at shortstop and will be 33 next season. He hasn't played more than 75 games in a season since 2006. He has never been an average bat. even in the NL. Nice glove but outside of a salary dump, that's a bad deal for Baltimore.

*****

The Orioles have not yet made a decision about their future Spring Training home and the suitors are getting impatient. Sarasota has made an offer and wonder if the Orioles are actually serious about coming. Indian County (Vero Beach) has given the Orioles a December 15th deadline or they will rescind their offer to move the Orioles into the old Dodgertown.

*****

Khalil Greene had been traded to the St. Louis Cardinals. For the second straight year, the Cardinals have helped the Orioles avoid a stupid move for a mediocrity at shortstop.

*****

I want the Orioles to sign one of these Japanese pitchers they are talking to. We need pitching of every kind and it would be a sign that Andy MacPhail's focus overseas is starting to bear fruit.

Big Homer Index: Powell, Batista and Conine

What is BHI? Look here...

Boog Powell - 303 Oriole Career Homers

It goes without saying that Boog is one of the premier sluggers in Oriole history. While he had only two game ending longballs, a full 47% of his homers were game tying or put Baltimore in the lead, a total only surpassed by Rafael Palmiero. He also only hit 46% of his homers with the bases empty, the best number so far. He hit 23% of his homers in "Garbage Time", mostly when the O's were already up big. It's the only thing that keeps him from the elite.

BHI - 341

Tony Batista - 69 Oriole Career Homers

I really didn't see this coming. Batista spent 2 and half years on some really bad Oriole teams and the only thing he really did well was hit the ball over the fence. And he made it count. He only hit 20% of his homers during when it didn't matter and didn't hit fewer solo shot than average. 36% tied the game or gave the Orioles the lead and he had two game ending shots (the same as Boog Powell) in less than 2.5 seasons. He muscled up when it counted.

BHI - 406

Jeff Conine - 79 Oriole Career Homers

I always thought of Conine and B.J. Surhoff as sort of the same player so I didn't expect him to fare well in this exercise. I was right. 38% of his Oriole homers came in "Garbage Time". That's a huge number. He hit no walk-off shots. The only thing that keeps him in positive territory is his below-average numbers of solo shots and a moderate level of success in go ahead homers.

BHI - 5

BHI Leaders - Oriole Career
Brooks Robinson - 495
Eddie Murray - 469
Rafael Palmiero - 469
Tony Batista - 406
John Lowenstein - 393
Boog Powell - 341
Larry Sheets - 266
Chris Hoiles - 240
Roberto Alomar - 230
Doug DeCinces - 225
Brian Roberts - 224
Cal Ripken - 197
Brady Anderson - 138
Rick Dempsey - 136
Jay Gibbons - 42
Jeff Conine - 5
B.J. Surhoff - -64

Santa Dempsey

From the Oriole Buzz blog on MASN:


While they're most at home delivering pitches from the mound at Camden Yards, a few O's hurlers will spend this Thursday afternoon delivering gifts to kindergarten children at the ESPN Zone in Baltimore's Inner Harbor.

Orioles pitchers Dennis Sarfate, Chris Ray, Jim Miller and Brian Burres, along with former O's Rick Dempsey, Dave Johnson, Scott McGregor, Larry Sheets and Bill Swaggerty will spend this Thursday afternoon from 11:30 a.m. to 1:30 p.m. with 90 kindergarten students from Graceland Park Elementary School....

Rick Dempsey will make an appearance as Santa Claus and deliver gifts courtesy of OriolesREACH to each child.

(Update: Rick Dempsey just stopped in the MASN web studio to say hello. He said he flew in from California this morning for this week's festivities. He was on his way back to try on his Santa suit and practice the Christmas songs they'll apparently be singing at the party this week--songs, you ask? They'll be singing? That's what I said. I can't help but think, this should be good...)

Larry Sheets and Rick Dempsey in the same room? Dempsey as Santa Claus? Songs!?!?!?!

Oh, to be a kid again...

Big Homer Index: Lowenstein, DeCinces and Alomar

There is so little going on in the Oriole offseason so far...

What is BHI? See here...

John Lowenstein - 68 Oriole Career Homers

Lowenstein had a reputation of being a big clutch hitter and his BHI score bears that out. Out of 68 Oriole career homers, 24 put the team ahead. He also had a walk-off homer and a mere 11 in "Garbage Time". Lowenstein earns a more than respectable score

BHI - 393

Roberto Alomar - 50 Oriole Career Homers

Alomar makes my arbitrary standard of 50 Oriole career homers to qualify for BHI. Alomar was very middle of the road. 22% of his homers came during "Garbage Time", 42% either tied the game or put the O's ahead and 52% of his homers were solo shots. Just above average here.

BHI - 230

Doug DeCinces - 107 Oriole Career Homers

DeCinces demonstrated some limited pop during his Oriole career and tends to hit all extremes. He hit over 30% of his homers in "Garbage Team" but nearly 40% of his homers were tying or go ahead shots. But his two walk-off homers give him respecatability.

BHI - 225

The updated list:

BHI Leaders - Oriole Career
Brooks Robinson - 495
Eddie Murray - 469
Rafael Palmiero - 469
John Lowenstein - 393
Larry Sheets - 266
Chris Hoiles - 240
Roberto Alomar - 230
Doug DeCinces - 225
Brian Roberts - 224
Cal Ripken - 197
Brady Anderson - 138
Rick Dempsey - 136
Jay Gibbons - 42
B.J. Surhoff - -64

And Now A Word From Our Sponsor...

I don't really blog as a commercial venture. It's nothing more than a hobby and a form of therapy after 11 straight losing seasons. But if I can find someway for this blog to pay for my various baseball related subscriptions for the year, that would be nice too.

So for the holidays, here's something I am trying to achieve that end and maybe you guys will find it useful too. There's a sports merchandise website called BigFlySports.com and I have a free shipping code to pass along to you. The code, CALRULES, gives you free shipping on your order and gives me a little something on the side. They have a lot of Baltimore Orioles gear along with other MLB licensed items. Call me crazy but I am partial to the 1960's era mini batting helmet. So, take a look and please use the CALRULES code for free shipping on your order.

Thanks...

Mike Mussina...He Was There for The Ripken Years

Mike Mussina has retired. As long as he stays retired, Dempsey's Army forgives all. The Warehouse mismanaged the whole situation with Moose and although I wish he wouldn't have signed with the Yankees...it's all water under the bridge.

He was the best Oriole pitcher since Jim Palmer retired and he was homegrown. He was one of ours and his best seasons came with Baltimore, not the Yankees.

So, a couple of items to look at from Mussina's long career. Is he a Hall of Famer? Hmmmm....

            ERA+
Clemens     145
R. Johnson  137
Maddux      132
Schilling   127
Smoltz      127
K. Brown    127
Mussina     122
Glavine     118
Finley      115
 

Compared to his peers, Mussina's ERA+ pales a bit against the elite. Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux are head and shoulders above the rest. (So is Pedro Martinez but he fell just short of my 3000 IP criteria.)

The next level give Schilling, Smoltz and Kevin Brown. Schilling and Smoltz will get a lot of consideration from their stellar postseason accomplishments and if there was question about their credentials form the regular season. Kevin Brown is not a Hall of Famer.

Then there's Mussina, Tom Glavine and Chuck Finley. Glavine has 300 wins and like it or not, he's in with nothing else considered. Chuck Finley is not a Hall of Famer. Is Mussina? In that company?

Strikeouts among his peers:

              SO
R. Johnson   4789
Clemens      4472
Maddux       3371
Martinez     3117
Schilling    3116
Smoltz       3011
Mussina      2813
Cone         2668
Finley       2610
Glavine      2607
 

Again, there's the first tier of Johnson and Clemens, the second tier of Maddux, Martinez, Schilling and Smoltz, then there's Mussina. He's on top of the third tier but stil third tier.

Wins:

            Wins
Maddux       355
Clemens      338
Glavine      305
Johnson      295
Mussina      270
Moyer        246
 

The wins will help Mussina's case more than anything.

Other points in Mussina's favor that will not be considered by the BBWA: 1.98 BB/9, 1.192 WHIP, 3.58 K/BB ratio, 7.11 K/9.

My gut feeling is that now that he has added a 20 win season and he played for many years in the top media market he will get in eventually.

Now, in my estimation, the top five pitching performances by Michael Cole Mussina for the Baltimore Orioles:

#5 - July 17th, 1992 - Texas Rangers

In his first full season, Mussina mowed down a lineup of fearsome sluggers, striking out 10 and allowing but one hit during a complete game shutout. Kevin Brown took the loss. There is no story here, just pure, methodical domination

          IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  HR
Mussina  9.0  1  0   0   1  10  0

 

#4 - September 13th, 1997 - New York Yankees

The second place Yanks were making a charge at AL East leading Baltimore and had won the first two games of a four game set. Enter Mike Mussina. He struck out 9 and only gave up 1 unearned run over 9 strong innings. He beat Kenny Rogers and gave the Orioles a bit more of a cushion over a team would only finish two games behind them as they went wire-to-wire and won the AL East.

          IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  HR
Mussina  9.0  3  1   0   1   9   0

 

#3 - August 1st, 2000 - Minnesota Twins

Two bad teams faced off this day but Mussina was hardly mailing it in. He struck out a career high 15, including punching out David Ortiz three times. The starter for the Twins was not Kenny Rogers.

          IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  HR
Mussina  9.0  1  0   0   2  15   0


 

#2 - May 30th, 1997 - Cleveland Indians

In a sign of things to come...sort of, Mussina would outduel Charles Nagy as the O's won a faceoff of division leaders, 3-0. Moose one-hit a team whose lineup featured at least two future Hall of Famers (Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez) and multiple All-Star caliber hitters (Matt Williams, David Justice, Omar Vizquel, Julio Franco).

          IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  HR
Mussina  9.0  1  0   0   0  10   0


 

#1 - October 15th, 1997 - Cleveland Indians

In Game 6 of the ALCS, Moose gave his all on the mound and he and Charles Nagy both left zeros on the scoreboard when they exited the game. Mussina struck out 10 again and surrendered a lone hit but the bullpen gave up the go ahead run in the 11th and the dreams of an Oriole World Series were dashed. But it sure wasn't Mike's fault.

          IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  HR
Mussina  8.0  1  0   0   2  10   0


 

Photo courtesy of the Baltimore Sun

BHI: Palmiero, Dempsey and Surhoff

What's BHI? Look here...

Rafael Palmeiro - 223 Oriole Career Homers

Although the steroid scandal tends to overshadow his Oriole career, Rafael Palmeiro was signed in 1994 with Miguel Tejada-like hype and largely lived up to it during his Oriole career, at least the first stint. Less than 25% of his homers came during "garbage time" and less than 47% of his homers came with nobody on base. (The major league average is about 58%...) More than half his total home runs wither put the O's ahead or tied the game and there were 4 walk-offs. His BHI puts him on-par with the Oriole immortals.

BHI - 469

Rick Dempsey - 65 Oriole Career Homers

I almost hated to do this to the namesake of my blog. Even though Dempsey had a lot of big hits in the postseason, I didn't think he would acquit himself well in this survey of regular season home runs.

But he fares OK for a guy with only 65 career homers for Baltimore. Although he hit a ton of solo shots, very few came during "garbage time" (less than 25%) and nearly half of his homers were game tying or go ahead shots. The lack of walk-off homers renders him fairly average.

BHI - 136

B.J. Surhoff - 120 Oriole Career Homers

Shockingly, B.J. Surhoff is now the reigning Oriole king of the Garbage Homer.

Why? Just over 62% of his homers were solo shots and only 32% of his homers either tied the game and put Baltimore ahead. But the killer was that more than a third of all his homers came during "garbage time", mostly when the Orioles were either up or down by 4 runs or more.

I didn't even know this was possible but Surhoff gets a BHI that is negative.

BHI - -64

BHI Leaders - Oriole Career
Brooks Robinson - 495
Eddie Murray - 469
Rafael Palmeiro - 469
Larry Sheets - 266
Chris Hoiles - 240
Brian Roberts - 224
Cal Ripken - 197
Brady Anderson - 138
Rick Dempsey - 136
Jay Gibbons - 42
B.J. Surhoff - -64

Base Hits: 11/14/2008

Aubrey Huff has won the 2008 Silver Slugger award for DH and deservedly so. Before the season, I described Huff as a "hitter in decline" but I was wrong, at least for last year.

*****

The West Oahu Canefires will play in the Hawaiian League Championship game on Sunday. Oriole prospects haven't had a lot to do with their success (Tim Bascom, for instance, has been horrible) with the bright spot being 3B Tyler Henson hitting .261 with 16 RBI and a team high 25 walks. Adam Loewen plays for the Canefires too. He is hitting .143 with no extra base hits. And he's been hit by a pitch three times in just 8 games. Good!

*****

Sarasota has hammered out a proposal worth more than $30 million to become the Spring Training home for the Baltimore Orioles after two days of meetings with Oriole officials. The offer has yet to be voted on by the Lee County Commission before the offer is official.

*****

Former Oriole manager and universal sad-sack Sam Perlozzo has joined the Charlie Manuel's staff with the Philadelphia Phillies. God help them.

*****

A clip from Dave Sheinin's Nationals Journal blog as the free agent season begins. (The Nationals seem to think they have a legitimate shot at signing Mark Teixeira...oookay...)

*The Nationals' chief competitors might be just up the road in Baltimore. Someone who speaks to Peter Angelos regularly told me that he has never seen him so fixated on a player as he is on Teixeira. Others have told me that Angelos has been asking everyone in baseball what they think of Teixeira.

My educated guess is that the Orioles will end up making the highest bid for Teixeira.

*****

Song of the Week: Bringing a little country feel into the mix with the excellent alt country band out of Athens, GA, Drive-By Truckers with "Gravity's Gone" Have a nice weekend.

More BHI Analysis

There is close to nothing going on in the world of the Orioles so...time to look at some more Orioles and discern their Big Homer Index (BHI). What's BHI? It's a made up stat that examines who hits the clutch homer and the homer in "garbage time". Look here if you want to see how I determine the score.

Eddie Murray - 343 Oriole HR

I filtered Eddie's homers to only include his Oriole career, both stints. Eddie only hit solo shots just over 50% of the time which is a pretty good number. And nearly 48% of his homers either tied the game or put the Orioles ahead. Add to that the 7 Game Ending homeruns and his clutch homer stats are stellar. He's right up there behind Brooks Robinson on the BHI scale.

BHI - 469

Brian Roberts - 61 Oriole HR

Roberts' career with the Orioles isn't over...yet. But with the possibility of his exodus from Baltimore, I thought it was as good a time as any to put him under the BHI microscope.

Even though he has only 61 career homeruns, his percentage of Go Ahead and Tying homeruns is a Murray-like 47%. A ton of solo shots but he is a leadoff hitter and has a game winner under his belt. To compare him to another lead-off hitter, Brady Anderson, he actually acquits himself quite well. B-Rob doesn't hit many but he tends to make them count.

BHI - 138

Larry Sheets - 84 Oriole HR

A shooting star, Sheets was a heck of a slugger but had trouble with consistency. However, he didn't hit a ton of solo homers, more than half came with men on base. But only 30% of his homers tied or put the O's ahead and close to 40% came in garbage time. Three walk-off homers bring Larry up to respectability.

BHI - 266

So, the new list...

BHI Leaders - Oriole Career
Brooks Robinson - 495
Eddie Murray - 469
Larry Sheets - 266
Chris Hoiles - 240
Brian Roberts - 224
Cal Ripken - 197
Brady Anderson - 138
Jay Gibbons - 42

If the offseason continues to be this quiet, there will be quite a few more of these posts!

Dunn vs. Teixeira: A Closer Look

Desert O of Weaver's Tantrum suggested that I take a closer look at Teixeira vs. Dunn. There certainly isn't anything else going on as far as the Orioles are concerned...so here it is.

I decided to look at the last four years for the two players. All stats cumulative for the last four seasons and rankings are compiled for MLB OF, 1B and DHs (As an aside, Teixeira and Dunn will both be 29 for the 2009 season.)

The lines for each player for the last four seasons:

Teixeira   .299/.389/.550
Dunn       .254/.381/.524
 

Dunn seems lacking from those numbers alone, mostly based on his batting average, an average that is incorporated into the slugging and on-base averages too.

Let's look more closely at one of Dunn's other shortcomings, his strikeouts.

SO

Dunn       691
Howard     679
.
.
Teixeira   457
 

Dunn is the clear leader in strikeouts over the past four years, only Ryan Howard comes close. Teixeira is way down on the list at 14th.

However, if you look at it a different way, the strikeouts aren't so bad. Total outs over the last four years:

Outs

10. Teixeira   1700
.
.
16. Dunn       1656
 

How does Dunn manage to come in under Teixeira? Well, if you strikeout, you don't ground into a double play. But mostly it's the insane walk rate.

BB

Dunn       449
Burrell    414
Ortiz      402
.
.
Teixeira   330
 

Dunn walks a ton which puts him squarely in the 100-100 club every year. He is, if you follow this blog, the kind of player I have a soft spot for. It also increases his value over your typical .250 hitter. He simply does not make a lot of outs.

Oh yeah, he can jack 'em too.

Homeruns

Howard     175
Dunn       160
Ortiz      159
Pujols     159
Soriano    144
 

Teixeira is down the list at 139...Dunn holds the advantage in terms of pure power when you take batting average out of the equation as the ISO numbers show.

ISO (Isolated Power)

4. Dunn        .279
.
.
11. Teixeira   .251
 

Next is Runs Created and Extra Bases. Tex is clearly superior here but Dunn is no slouch.

Runs Created

3.  Teixeira   510
.
.
10. Dunn       459
 

Extra Bases

4. Teixeira    305
.
.
11. Dunn       273
 

Who's the better all-around hitter? Teixeira is and I think that's clear. But Teixeira is thought to be looking at contract offers of $23-25 million per year. Dunn, according to most sources, will probably get a deal in the $12-13 million per year range.

Is Teixeira twice as good as Dunn? I don't think so. If you're the Orioles, it's all about value on the free agent market this offseason. Dunn offers some pretty good bang for the buck if you want to avoid the big bidding wars.

Base Hits: 11/7/2008

You know, I always thought that Keith Law of ESPN had extreme views when it came to completely disregarding postseason awards. I'm beginning to come around. This is a quote from Keith in regards to Chase Utley being passed over for a Gold Glove this season. It can be fairly applied to the decision to deny Nick Markakis his first Gold Glove as well:

If GGs weren't already a complete and utter joke, unworthy of even a moment of our attention, then that's where they are now.

I'm really beginning to agree.

I stated earlier this week that Nick might get bumped by Torii Hunter based on rep alone and I was right. But even I didn't see a choice so lame as Ichiro.

Neither Hunter nor Ichiro are bad fielders but they are far from the best. The best argument you can make for them is that they are average. Neither is even close to Markakis. Not even a little bit. See my other post. They're not even in the conversation.

Of course, how could we put much faith in a system that awards Derek Jeter more career Gold Gloves (3) than Cal Ripken (2)?

Rob Neyer, another ESPN baseball writer, probably summed it up best:

It's hard to escape the conclusion that the managers and the coaches just don't give a damn about the process. It's a strange thing, to care more than the actual voters about the Gold Gloves. But year after year, it sure seems like we do.

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The prospects in Hawaii are all playing really bad baseball. It's far too depressing to post about as I can find no silver lining on any of these clouds. The Baltimore Sun's Dean Jones, Jr. offers all the ugly details.

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Also at the Sun, Jeff Zrebiec reports that Mr. Reluctant wants to try to return to the Orioles as a starter next season.

Fine by me. The official slogan for the 2009 Baltimore Oriole rotation should be "We'll Take Anybody". Anybody with one arm and can walk to the mound should get a shot.

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John Sickels had these observations after watching Matt Wieters in the Arizona Fall League:

1) This won't come as a surprise to you, but Matt Wieters is really, really good. He is a cross between Joe Mauer and Mike Piazza. The only things that could hurt him would be injury (always possible) or a really severe case of Young Catcher Stagnation Syndrome (seems unlikely to me).

Nice to hear it!

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What the hell. I'm reviving the Song of the Week. Here's Marah performing "The Dishwasher's Dream". I'll warn you in advance that the lyrics reference "a Yanks winning streak". Have a great weekend!

GM Meetings and Hot Stove Rumors

The Orioles are reported to be one team interested in acquiring San Diego shortstop Khalil Greene (tip of the hat to Jay Trucker of the Baltimore Examiner on that link...).

Rumors swirl during the Hot Stove season so I don't take them too seriously...but this is a HORRIBLE idea! Greene is set to make $6.5 million next season. $6.5 mil for a guy who plays a below average shortstop and has, at best, been an average hitter. And I am being very generous when I describe Greene as an average hitter. And they'll have to give up players, no matter how lowly, to get him.

Why don't you just sign Juan Uribe? They're the same player. They'll both be 29 next season. They both strike out a lot and walk rarely. They both have some decent pop. And you could argue that Uribe has a better glove. And he only made $4.5 mil last season and can be signed as a free agent without giving up prospects.

Don't believe me? Compare Uribe to Greene.

(Keep in mind that Ken Rosenthal has reported the Oriole interest in Greene as well which casts a huge shadow of doubt that any of this is substantial...)

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Brian Roberts continues to be coveted by clubs around the league. The latest team to express interest seems to be the White Sox. GM Kenny Williams loves speedy guys and Brian Roberts would certainly fit that bill.

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I don't get all the A.J. Burnett to the Orioles buzz either. They estimate that he's looking for $15-18 million for a four or five year deal. Is that really what the O's need? I'm no big fan of chasing Mark Teixeira but if you're going to spend in the neighborhood of $20 mil for a free agent, that's where it should be spent.

Burnett has had one healthy season out of three and is on the wrong side of 30. A four year deal? Any team that gives it to him is just begging for that deal to blow up in their face.

Given that Andy MacPhail's philosophy is to develop pitching from within and spend free agent money on position players, I hope there is nothing to the Burnett rumors.

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MLB.com has a video highlighting the Oriole prospects in the AFL. It's here.

Base Hits: November 5, 2008

My dream lineup for the 2009 Baltimore Orioles. Only two rules for this list. A) No trades allowed. There is no way possible to predict what would happen in trades. It would be crazy to predict. But free agents and internal candidates are allowed. B) The key phrase here is "bang-for-your-buck". This team will not contend so there is no reason to break the bank But all these Free Agent pickups are very realistic.

Starting Lineup

C Matt Wieters
1B Adam Dunn
2B Brian Roberts
3B Melvin Mora
SS Adam Everett
RF Nick Markakis
CF Adam Jones
LF Luke Scott
DH Aubrey Huff

Now let me explain...

Wieters has nothing left to prove in the minors. Jump in and swim.

All Adam Dunn does is hit homers, walk and strikeout. Anybody who reads this blog with regularity knows I have a soft spot for 100/100 club guys. Especially when they hit 40 homers a year, every year. Dunn only hit .236 so his value will be diminished and he can learn to play firstbase. You could probably get him for less than $10 million a year for four years (he turns 29 in '09) and he'll give you Mark Teixeira-type production for less than half the salary. Obviously, they are very different players but Dunn is very productive in his own way.

The prospects at shortstop are bleak but if Adam Everett is healthy at least the defensive side of the game would be taken care of. IF he's healthy, you throw $1.5 mil his way for a couple years and watch a modern day Mark Belanger in action. If any town would appreciate Everett's talents, it would be Baltimore. Over the next two years, you look for a better option.

Pitchers


SP Jeremy Guthrie
SP Derek Lowe
SP Braden Looper
SP Josh Fogg
SP Garrett Olson

RP Radhames Liz
RP Jamie Walker
RP Dennis Sarfate
RP Chris Waters
RP Daniel Cabrera
RP Chris Ray
RP George Sherrill

Basically, you make a run at a couple of mid-level free agent pitchers and sign them to reasonable contracts. Lowe and Looper would be at least competent until our prospects are ready and they won't have to be rushed. Next, you bring in every scrapheap pitcher (Odalis Perez, Matt Clement, Livan Hernandez, etc...) you can lay your hands on and hope someone shines in Spring Training. That's where a guy like Josh Fogg comes in. Olson can continue to develop at the bottom of the rotation.

The bullpen continues to be developed from within...

Just my imagination running wild but I think it's a start.

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WHFS 105.7 has gone all-sports as of Monday. Lots of sports talk in Baltimore now but only the new "The Fan" and WNST provide primarily local sports talk. ESPN 1300 will now be exclusively ESPN national programming and newcomer WVIE will have a lot of Fox Sports programming.

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Adam Loewen is hitting .273 thus far in Hawaii. That's higher than any hitting prospect from the Oriole organization in Hawaii. (ujhmn ujhmn tfgv...banging head on keyboard)

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I don't get the perception that former Orioles GM Pat Gillick is some kind of miracle worker in Philly. The core of the Phillies team that just won the World Series was already in place when he took over in 2006! Here's what he did: signed the horrible Pedro Feliz, paid a whole lot of money to Geoff Jenkins to ride the bench, signed Jayson Werth, acquired Jamie Moyer, traded for Joe Blanton and Brad Lidge and signed J.C. Romero.

Pedro Feliz is a horrible hitter. Geoff Jenkins is nice off the bench but overpaid. Jason Werth was a nice pickup but he's an average player at best. Jamie Moyer was a nice pickup. Joe Blanton was fairly effective but he only had to trade for Blanton because the terrible contract he gave to Adam Eaton blew up in his face. Brad Lidge was a good move and Romero panned out well too.

But Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Pat Burrell, Shane Victorino, Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Kyle Kendrink, Ryan Madsen and more were already with the organization. They won the title but only time will tell how ravaged the Phillies farm system is after all Gillick's wheeling and dealing...



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Baseball America has released their scouting report for the Baltimore Orioles. Here's their opinion on the Top Ten Prospects in the Oriole system:

1. Matt Wieters, c
2. Chris Tillman, rhp
3. Brian Matusz, lhp
4. Jake Arrieta, rhp
5. Nolan Reimold, of
6. Brandon Erbe, rhp
7. Billy Rowell, 3b
8. Troy Patton, lhp
9. Brandon Snyder, 1b
10. Kam Mickolio, rhp

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From Keith Law's blog:

The Orioles likely will be players for free agents who are already "motivated to come to Baltimore," meaning players with Maryland ties -- Mark Teixeira and A.J. Burnett. Neither player would block any of the Orioles' many prospects. They would entertain serious offers for catcher Ramon Hernandez, knowing that über-prospect Matt Wieters could easily start the year in the majors and that several contenders are looking for short-term catching solutions. It's not out of the question that they would fast-track their top 2008 draft pick, left-handed starter Brian Matusz, by starting him at AA Bowie, although it's just as likely that he'll begin in the Carolina League, as Wieters and right-hander Jake Arrieta did.

I don't get the whole A.J. Burnett thing. More on that later...

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I was reading Sports Illustrated this week and a writer suggested that the O's should move Brian Roberts to shortstop and pursue a free agent secondbasemen. Dave Trembley has squashed that idea in these comments to Roch Kubatko.

Roberts is a good fielding secondbaseman...but he's 30 and I don't think his range is good enough at this point to play an acceptable shortstop.

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Vero Beach has supposedly made its "final offer" to the Baltimore Orioles to make the old Dodgertown facility their new spring training home. Sarasota, who is losing the Reds and have been spurned by the Red Sox, are targeting the Orioles as well.