Thursday, May 8, 2008

Giving the O's Some PrOPS...and Reavealing the Real Problem With This Team

Last week I wrote a post about Ramon Hernandez and how he is hitting better than his Mendoza-esque batting average would indicate.

It looks like it's catching.



Actual Batting Line PrOPS Batting Line
Roberts .263/.353/.421 .288/.374/.432
Mora .257/.306/.412 .284/.330/.441
Markakis .270/.395/.451 .290/.409/.510
Millar .224/.315/.344 .274/.358/.438
Huff .266/.341/.452 .265/.337/.450
Scott .286/.366/.418 .252/.337/.353
Jones .231/.272/.359 .250/.291/.370
R.Hernandez .202/.234/.364 .302/.330/.465
L.Hernandez .243/.304/.257 .276/.336/.340




So far, only Aubrey Huff is hitting about what he should be hitting based on the batted ball data. Adam Jones is close but he should have slightly better results at this point.

Luke Scott is the only player who seems to be destined for a correction down. Indeed, that may be what this slump Luke's been in actually is, a correction to the kind of numbers he will actually put up.

Everyone else is underperforming their PrOPS scores. It can't last. There is going to be some upswing in the offense barring an injury. Again, look for Ramon Hernandez, Kevin Millar, Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis to come out of this funk pretty soon with modest increases from Melvin Mora and Luis Hernandez. (Of course, you could replace Luis and spell Mora with Scott Moore every so often and goose the numbers up that way...)

The offense is not great but it is not as bereft as it looks right now. Dave Trembley needs to leave these guys in the lineup and it will work itself out.

Their baserunning on the other hand...I haven't found statistical evidence of this but there can't possibly be another team in the majors who has been picked off, thrown out stealing or thrown out trying to take an extra base more than the Baltimore Orioles.

More than hitting, fans should be concerned about the fielding on this team. Brian Roberts is near the bottom in the league for fielding by a second baseman. Ditto for Luis Hernandez. Melvin More has been OK. Millar has been bad. Ramon has been passable behind the plate but leads the league with 4 throwing errors. (The outfield defense, in fairness, is pretty good across the board.)

The Orioles are going to play a lot of close games this year so the team needs to find solutions to it's defensive woes (especially up the middle) if it hopes to be respectable.

3 comments:

the wayward o said...

it's no secret around mlb that orioles are going to press on base paths .... so opposing catchers are taking advantage.

Heath said...

Agreed.

That's the Catch 22 for the Orioles. Even when the bats come around, they won't be a great offense. I think teams shouldn't give up a lot of outs on the basepaths but does this team score enough runs without being aggressive? Should Trembley pull back a bit? I don't know.

I don't envy the manager trying to figure this bunch out but personally, I'd get a little more conservative.

FrostKing said...

Good job on this. When I looked at the O's offense, I didn't realize that THT had the PrOPS stat up, so I looked at the line-drive rate, BABIP, and so forth. Came to the same conclusion though - the hitters have been pretty unlucky in general. While I'm here, can I mention that in the most recent post you wrote "Amazing what being a shortstop not named Hernandez or Bynum will get you in 2008."? Hernandez or "Fahey", no? Sorry. Keep up the excellent blogging.