In Defense of the Orioles

I figured two months was about time to check in on how the Orioles are catching the ball. There is no perfect defensive metric but I think the best one is UZR. So thanks to FanGraphs.com, a quick analysis of the O's have been flashing the leather.

UZR does not apply to catchers.

Overall, the O's come in 26th in terms of UZR:

Team        UZR/150    Inn     PO     A     E    DP    FP
Red Sox      -6.9      4152   1384   461    33   81  0.982
Mets         -5.8      4101   1367   499    39   96  0.98
Orioles      -5.2      4197   1399   524    33  116  0.983
Braves       -4.9      4113   1371   532    29  103  0.985
Rockies      -4.8      4023   1341   572    32  116  0.984
 

The defense has been disappointing thus far. A unit that was supposed to be greatly improved is ranked near the bottom of all the teams in baseball.

Let's break it down. First base:

Name          Pos    Inn    PO    A    E    DP    FP    DPR    RngR   ErrR    UZR/150
Ty Wigginton  1B      42    40    3    0    4      1    0.2     11.1  0.1      14.6
Aubrey Huff  1B      424.1  409  26    2   37   0.995   0.1    -4.1   0.6     -11.8

It ain't pretty at first but we all expected that. Huff does, however, rank as one of the worst fielding first baseman in baseball.

Wigginton, on the other hand, has been good in limited action. Perhaps he should start serving as a late innings replacement when the Orioles have the lead? Granted those are rare these days...

On to second base...

Name           Pos   Inn   PO   A   E   DP   FP   DPR   RngR   ErrR   UZR/150
Brian Roberts  2B   457.1  75  153  2   34  0.991 0.6   1.5    0.9      6.9

Roberts has actually been quite good so far ranking in the top third of all second baseman. Not bad for a 31 year old speedster.

Third base...

Name            Pos   Inn   PO   A   E   DP   FP   DPR   RngR   ErrR   UZR/150
Melvin Mora     3B   300.1  32  61   3    4 0.969  0.2   -1.2    0.3    -3.4
Ty Wigginton    3B   156    14  26   2    1 0.952 -0.2    -1    -0.4    -14.4

Melmo has been below average int he field this year, just like last year. After a few good seasons feilding, age is catching up to him. The good news for Mora is that Wigginton is even worse.

Shortstop

Name           Pos    Inn   PO   A   E   DP    FP   DPR   RngR   ErrR   UZR/150
Robert Andino   SS    100   12   32  2   4   0.957  0.4    3.2   -0.8    35.3
Cesar Izturis   SS   363.1  69  129  5   30  0.975  0.3   -0.1    0.1     0.1

This one becomes even more relevant now that Izturis is on the DL. Izturis has been steadier, making the plays when he gets to the ball btu has been average overall. Andino is less sure but has demonstrated great range up to this point. If he can cut down on the errors, Baltimore may see play equivalent to Izturis...or maybe better.

Left Field

Name           Pos    Inn   PO   A   E   DP    FP   DPR   RngR   UZR/150
Felix Pie       LF   151.1  52   2   0    0     1     4    0.2    25.6
Nolan Reimold   LF   140.1  29   0   1    0   0.967 0.6    0.1     6.5
Lou Montanez    LF    88.2  23   0   0    0     1   0.4    0.1     3.9

Left field has been the source of great success for the O's. Reimold has been very good since his call up. After a rougn start, Pie has been stellar on the rare occastions he gets to play. Montanez was pretty good too before he got hurt.

Center Field

Name       Pos    Inn   PO   A   E   DP    FP   DPR   RngR   UZR/150
Felix Pie   CF     64   18   0   0    0     1  -1.8    0      -25.7
Adam Jones  CF   402.1 138   4   4    0  0.973 -6.4   -1.2    -18.6

Jones has been disappointing so far. He has already made more errors this year (4) than he had all of last year. His range has not been good either. Maybe bad luck? Maybe bad routes? Still plenty of time to turn it around here.

Right Field

Name           Pos   Inn   PO   A   E   DP    FP   DPR   RngR   UZR/150
Nick Markakis  RF   463.1  92   5   3    0   0.97 -9.5   -0.5    -26.6

Same for Nick. This Oriole outfield had the potential to be one of the best in baseball but the two best fielders are having down years. Nick, like Jones, already has as many errors this year as he had all of last year. The range is down too. The only thing he is still doing well is his outfield assists. In terms of UZR, Nick MArkakis ranks last in the majors among right fielders.

In conclusion, outside of Brian Roberts and Nolan Reimold, there's not a lot to feel good about among the Oriole defenders. The good news is that the talent is there, these guys have performed before. There's still two-thirds of the season to go and plenty of time for things to start moving in the right direction

Giving the O's Some PrOPS...and Reavealing the Real Problem With This Team

Last week I wrote a post about Ramon Hernandez and how he is hitting better than his Mendoza-esque batting average would indicate.

It looks like it's catching.

          Actual Batting Line      PrOPS Batting Line
Roberts     .263/.353/.421           .288/.374/.432
Mora        .257/.306/.412           .284/.330/.441
Markakis    .270/.395/.451           .290/.409/.510
Millar      .224/.315/.344           .274/.358/.438
Huff        .266/.341/.452           .265/.337/.450
Scott       .286/.366/.418           .252/.337/.353
Jones       .231/.272/.359           .250/.291/.370
R.Hernandez .202/.234/.364           .302/.330/.465
L.Hernandez .243/.304/.257           .276/.336/.340
 

So far, only Aubrey Huff is hitting about what he should be hitting based on the batted ball data. Adam Jones is close but he should have slightly better results at this point.

Luke Scott is the only player who seems to be destined for a correction down. Indeed, that may be what this slump Luke's been in actually is, a correction to the kind of numbers he will actually put up.

Everyone else is underperforming their PrOPS scores. It can't last. There is going to be some upswing in the offense barring an injury. Again, look for Ramon Hernandez, Kevin Millar, Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis to come out of this funk pretty soon with modest increases from Melvin Mora and Luis Hernandez. (Of course, you could replace Luis and spell Mora with Scott Moore every so often and goose the numbers up that way...)

The offense is not great but it is not as bereft as it looks right now. Dave Trembley needs to leave these guys in the lineup and it will work itself out.

Their baserunning on the other hand...I haven't found statistical evidence of this but there can't possibly be another team in the majors who has been picked off, thrown out stealing or thrown out trying to take an extra base more than the Baltimore Orioles.

More than hitting, fans should be concerned about the fielding on this team. Brian Roberts is near the bottom in the league for fielding by a second baseman. Ditto for Luis Hernandez. Melvin More has been OK. Millar has been bad. Ramon has been passable behind the plate but leads the league with 4 throwing errors. (The outfield defense, in fairness, is pretty good across the board.)

The Orioles are going to play a lot of close games this year so the team needs to find solutions to it's defensive woes (especially up the middle) if it hopes to be respectable.

Open Letter to Luis Hernandez

edit: I started writing this letter to Luis Hernandez after Tuesday's game, then had to go back an change it today as Hernandez made yet another throwing error on Wednesday. Sheesh! Shortstop was a question mark before and now it's becoming a huge concern. I think we need to kill a rooster to take the curse off his glove.

Dear Luis,

Let's get to the point. Can you just catch the damn ball? Or even better, when you catch the ball can you throw it somewhere near the firstbaseman's glove? You seem to be throwing it into the dugout or in the dirt. 4 errors in 9 games? Your glove was to be you calling card. Now it may be your downfall.

We were willing to embrace you. We respect defensive specialists at short in Baltimore. Outside of Cal Ripken, Baltimore has embraced the likes of Mark Belanger, Luis Aparicio and Mike Bordick. Any hit they got was gravy. This town, more than any, will forgive your offensive deficiencies if you can flash the leather. Baltimore understands the value of defense at short.

So start flashing it! Brandon Fahey has two errors but is eating your lunch!

You understand that this is the only team in the league that would consider opening the season with you in their starting lineup right? We don't care if you flirt with Mendoza line. Just make the plays in the field.

Three throwing errors. I hope for the sake of you and the team that you aren't developing a case of the yips. Snap out of it buddy. We'll be waiting for you when you do.

Signed,

Dempsey's Army