Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Base Hits: November 5, 2008

My dream lineup for the 2009 Baltimore Orioles. Only two rules for this list. A) No trades allowed. There is no way possible to predict what would happen in trades. It would be crazy to predict. But free agents and internal candidates are allowed. B) The key phrase here is "bang-for-your-buck". This team will not contend so there is no reason to break the bank But all these Free Agent pickups are very realistic.

Starting Lineup

C Matt Wieters
1B Adam Dunn
2B Brian Roberts
3B Melvin Mora
SS Adam Everett
RF Nick Markakis
CF Adam Jones
LF Luke Scott
DH Aubrey Huff

Now let me explain...

Wieters has nothing left to prove in the minors. Jump in and swim.

All Adam Dunn does is hit homers, walk and strikeout. Anybody who reads this blog with regularity knows I have a soft spot for 100/100 club guys. Especially when they hit 40 homers a year, every year. Dunn only hit .236 so his value will be diminished and he can learn to play firstbase. You could probably get him for less than $10 million a year for four years (he turns 29 in '09) and he'll give you Mark Teixeira-type production for less than half the salary. Obviously, they are very different players but Dunn is very productive in his own way.

The prospects at shortstop are bleak but if Adam Everett is healthy at least the defensive side of the game would be taken care of. IF he's healthy, you throw $1.5 mil his way for a couple years and watch a modern day Mark Belanger in action. If any town would appreciate Everett's talents, it would be Baltimore. Over the next two years, you look for a better option.

Pitchers


SP Jeremy Guthrie
SP Derek Lowe
SP Braden Looper
SP Josh Fogg
SP Garrett Olson

RP Radhames Liz
RP Jamie Walker
RP Dennis Sarfate
RP Chris Waters
RP Daniel Cabrera
RP Chris Ray
RP George Sherrill

Basically, you make a run at a couple of mid-level free agent pitchers and sign them to reasonable contracts. Lowe and Looper would be at least competent until our prospects are ready and they won't have to be rushed. Next, you bring in every scrapheap pitcher (Odalis Perez, Matt Clement, Livan Hernandez, etc...) you can lay your hands on and hope someone shines in Spring Training. That's where a guy like Josh Fogg comes in. Olson can continue to develop at the bottom of the rotation.

The bullpen continues to be developed from within...

Just my imagination running wild but I think it's a start.

*****

WHFS 105.7 has gone all-sports as of Monday. Lots of sports talk in Baltimore now but only the new "The Fan" and WNST provide primarily local sports talk. ESPN 1300 will now be exclusively ESPN national programming and newcomer WVIE will have a lot of Fox Sports programming.

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Adam Loewen is hitting .273 thus far in Hawaii. That's higher than any hitting prospect from the Oriole organization in Hawaii. (ujhmn ujhmn tfgv...banging head on keyboard)

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I don't get the perception that former Orioles GM Pat Gillick is some kind of miracle worker in Philly. The core of the Phillies team that just won the World Series was already in place when he took over in 2006! Here's what he did: signed the horrible Pedro Feliz, paid a whole lot of money to Geoff Jenkins to ride the bench, signed Jayson Werth, acquired Jamie Moyer, traded for Joe Blanton and Brad Lidge and signed J.C. Romero.

Pedro Feliz is a horrible hitter. Geoff Jenkins is nice off the bench but overpaid. Jason Werth was a nice pickup but he's an average player at best. Jamie Moyer was a nice pickup. Joe Blanton was fairly effective but he only had to trade for Blanton because the terrible contract he gave to Adam Eaton blew up in his face. Brad Lidge was a good move and Romero panned out well too.

But Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Pat Burrell, Shane Victorino, Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Kyle Kendrink, Ryan Madsen and more were already with the organization. They won the title but only time will tell how ravaged the Phillies farm system is after all Gillick's wheeling and dealing...



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Baseball America has released their scouting report for the Baltimore Orioles. Here's their opinion on the Top Ten Prospects in the Oriole system:

1. Matt Wieters, c
2. Chris Tillman, rhp
3. Brian Matusz, lhp
4. Jake Arrieta, rhp
5. Nolan Reimold, of
6. Brandon Erbe, rhp
7. Billy Rowell, 3b
8. Troy Patton, lhp
9. Brandon Snyder, 1b
10. Kam Mickolio, rhp

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From Keith Law's blog:

The Orioles likely will be players for free agents who are already "motivated to come to Baltimore," meaning players with Maryland ties -- Mark Teixeira and A.J. Burnett. Neither player would block any of the Orioles' many prospects. They would entertain serious offers for catcher Ramon Hernandez, knowing that ├╝ber-prospect Matt Wieters could easily start the year in the majors and that several contenders are looking for short-term catching solutions. It's not out of the question that they would fast-track their top 2008 draft pick, left-handed starter Brian Matusz, by starting him at AA Bowie, although it's just as likely that he'll begin in the Carolina League, as Wieters and right-hander Jake Arrieta did.

I don't get the whole A.J. Burnett thing. More on that later...

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I was reading Sports Illustrated this week and a writer suggested that the O's should move Brian Roberts to shortstop and pursue a free agent secondbasemen. Dave Trembley has squashed that idea in these comments to Roch Kubatko.

Roberts is a good fielding secondbaseman...but he's 30 and I don't think his range is good enough at this point to play an acceptable shortstop.

*****

Vero Beach has supposedly made its "final offer" to the Baltimore Orioles to make the old Dodgertown facility their new spring training home. Sarasota, who is losing the Reds and have been spurned by the Red Sox, are targeting the Orioles as well.

1 comment:

Desert O said...

You should do a more detailed statistical analysis of Dunn vs. Tex. The stats work would be right up your alley and it would be interesting to read.