Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Dunn vs. Teixeira: A Closer Look

Desert O of Weaver's Tantrum suggested that I take a closer look at Teixeira vs. Dunn. There certainly isn't anything else going on as far as the Orioles are here it is.

I decided to look at the last four years for the two players. All stats cumulative for the last four seasons and rankings are compiled for MLB OF, 1B and DHs (As an aside, Teixeira and Dunn will both be 29 for the 2009 season.)

The lines for each player for the last four seasons:

Teixeira .299/.389/.550
Dunn .254/.381/.524

Dunn seems lacking from those numbers alone, mostly based on his batting average, an average that is incorporated into the slugging and on-base averages too.

Let's look more closely at one of Dunn's other shortcomings, his strikeouts.


Dunn 691
Howard 679
Teixeira 457

Dunn is the clear leader in strikeouts over the past four years, only Ryan Howard comes close. Teixeira is way down on the list at 14th.

However, if you look at it a different way, the strikeouts aren't so bad. Total outs over the last four years:


10. Teixeira 1700
16. Dunn 1656

How does Dunn manage to come in under Teixeira? Well, if you strikeout, you don't ground into a double play. But mostly it's the insane walk rate.


Dunn 449
Burrell 414
Ortiz 402
Teixeira 330

Dunn walks a ton which puts him squarely in the 100-100 club every year. He is, if you follow this blog, the kind of player I have a soft spot for. It also increases his value over your typical .250 hitter. He simply does not make a lot of outs.

Oh yeah, he can jack 'em too.


Howard 175
Dunn 160
Ortiz 159
Pujols 159
Soriano 144

Teixeira is down the list at 139...Dunn holds the advantage in terms of pure power when you take batting average out of the equation as the ISO numbers show.

ISO (Isolated Power)

4. Dunn .279
11. Teixeira .251

Next is Runs Created and Extra Bases. Tex is clearly superior here but Dunn is no slouch.

Runs Created

3. Teixeira 510
10. Dunn 459

Extra Bases

4. Teixeira 305
11. Dunn 273

Who's the better all-around hitter? Teixeira is and I think that's clear. But Teixeira is thought to be looking at contract offers of $23-25 million per year. Dunn, according to most sources, will probably get a deal in the $12-13 million per year range.

Is Teixeira twice as good as Dunn? I don't think so. If you're the Orioles, it's all about value on the free agent market this offseason. Dunn offers some pretty good bang for the buck if you want to avoid the big bidding wars.


FrostKing said...

Gap on defense is pretty large though.

DempseysArmy said...

True, Teixeira is a superior defender and Dunn would be at best, average based on his past action there. Then there is the whole question of how important defense is for a firstbaseman...but that's a whole other story.

But this post is not about examining who the superior player is. I concede that Teixeira is the better player. But $10 mil a year better? I don't think so.