Thursday, January 22, 2009

WAR: Predictions for the 2009 Orioles

Thanks to a tip from Frost King, I have discovered the WAR spreadsheet over at Beyond the Boxscore. This spreadsheet predicts team wins using Wins Above Replacement (WAR) calculations for individual players.

There's a lot of unknowns involved but based on educated guesses and various systems of projections, I have compiled my version of the WAR spreadsheet for the 2009 Orioles. The result? I think we'll be able to pencil the Orioles in for 77 wins in '09. Obviously, injuries will lower the projection but if Wieters gets to Baltimore ahead of schedule or a young pitcher breaks through...maybe 81 wins? I know, I'm dreaming...

(For what it's worth, since I did my first draft of the spreadsheet, the club has added Gregg Zaun, Felix Pie and David Pauley. They have pushed less effective players to either less playing time or of the roster completely...leading to an improvement of 4 wins...)

Frost King's version of the spreadsheet is here. He is contributing to Beyond the Boxscore's Community WAR Project 2009 and is looking for community projections over at Frost King Baseball. Go give him some help!

1 comment:

FrostKing said...

Thanks a lot Heath. If you're going to update your own sheets, then feel free to send those to me also.