Good Cabrera vs. Bad Cabrera

I wouldn't dig in there if I were you. I don't know where it's going. I swear to God.
- Crash Davis

I don't think all these PITCHfx posts will have the the same title but the title certainly fits for Danny.

Today, I'll be looking at Daniel's poor start on April 2nd and his fine (well, better) start on April 12th. The bonus here is that he pitched both games against the Tampa Bay (devil)Rays so both games are against nearly identical lineups.

First, his pitch movement on both starts:

Two things are immediately noticeable. First, the fact that he threw almost nothing but fastballs his second time seeing the Rays lineup (which we already knew). Second, his fastball was much more lively during the second game. The horizontal break on 4/12 is nearly five inches more severe. And while his slider was quite lively during his first start is was nearly straight in the second. (Those blue plots on the lower right on the second chart can't possibly be changeups. I'm assuming they are curveballs mislabeled by the PITCHfx system.

Now the placement of Cabrera's pitches. I've added a very rough estimation of the strike zone to these plots.

Well, it's no wonder that great breaking slider didn't help him much in the first start; he couldn't control it at all!

Obviously, his pitch location is a little more focused during the second game. Yes, he's throwing more strikes but when he misses it's not by as much or it seems to be with purpose as he misses to particular spots.

Tampa's lineup is very lefty heavy so he's missing away or up and away from Carl Crawford and the like. But he's not afraid to come inside with that fastball against righties either which has to be pretty intimidating.

Is this why he's had some of his best performances against lineups loaded with lefties? When he's on that 94 mph fastball breaks with some significance away from lefties inducing weak waves, foul balls and weak grounders to short. If it breaks inside on righties, better hitters can still turn on those pitches or more easily identify it as a ball.

So is this the new (old) formula for Danny? Even in the second game he couldn't place his changeup for strikes at all. With very limited use he was able to get his slider over but his fastball, even with nothing else contrasting it, is nearly unhittable.

The Tampa Bay announcers observed (correctly) that Cabrera is a horrible fielder and they didn't know why more teams didn't bunt on him to put more pressure on his defense skills. The problem is, that fastball is so lethal and lively that it's hard to even bunt the ball! The Rays tried that night and couldn't lay down a single successful bunt in fair territory, not even for a sacrifice.

Rick Kranitz has a reputation for focusing on what his pitchers do best and not trying to make them do things they aren't good at. With a fastball so wicked, maybe he's letting Daniel throw his best pitch almost exclusively and just trying to tweak the accuracy. It makes sense. If a guy hasn't mastered control of his best pitch, what are the odds he's going to be able to learn a new one?

And some wildness helps Cabrera. He got a ton of strikes on balls he threw out of the strike zone.

This is all probably much ado about nothing (with Cabrera it usually is) but I'd be curious to see what strategy he takes against another lefty heavy lineup...the Yankees...on Friday.

The Enigma Named Daniel Cabrera

I won't go on and on about Daniel Cabrera but the most disturbing thing about his performance last season was all the homers he gave up. For all the faults Cabrera has, the one thing he was really good at was striking out people and keeping the ball in the park.

sdfsdfsdf

Cabrera gave up two homers last night which does not bode well for his prospects this season. Only one game, yes, but out of character for the pitcher we knew before 2007.

I checked HitTrackerOnline and the Cliff Floyd homer was one they characterize as a "Just Enough" homer so you can give Daniel a little bit of a pass; maybe it was bad luck. But the Carlos Pena homer was way back there.

Just something to think about.

asd

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Alex Eisenberg tells you damn near everything you need to know about O's pitching prospect Chorye Spoone...at least everything about his pitching. Mechanics, stats, mentality...he's very thorough and there's some video. Good stuff.

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The Win Probability Graph from last night's game, courtesy of FanGraphs:

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The performance of the bullpen has been encouraging (0.00 ERA through two games) but let's not forget that the bullpen ERA through the first two games of 2007 was an excellent 2.09. And we all remember how that turned out.

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Sam Perlozzo is returning to Camden Yards as a coach for the Seattle Mariners.

Dan Connolly asked him about the Mother's Day Massacre against Boston last season:

Attempting to protect his inexperienced right-hander who had thrown 91 pitches, Perlozzo pulled Guthrie for setup man Danys Baez and then closer Chris Ray."I was totally taking care of [Guthrie]. I wanted him to be a good pitcher. I didn't want to blow him out," Perlozzo said. "I had the back end of my bullpen with a five-run lead and one out. How could you make a mistake there?"

He still doesn't get it. Jamie Walker and Chad Bradford both made more relief appearances in 2007 than any reliever in the 54 year history of the Baltimore Orioles (81 and 78 respectively). On May 13th, the day in question, it was the 19th relief appearances for both Danys Baez and Chris Ray and it was only the 38th game of the season.

Both these guys were on a pace to appear in 81 games in 2007! Those are crazy numbers! Perlozzo rode his bullpen hard and put them away wet. Ray had never been made more than 61 appearances in a season. Do you think this workload may have had something to do with his eventual injury? Baez wasn't that good to begin with but he too was overworked and overexposed.

asd

Now, which was worse? Letting Guthrie finish the game and resting your exhausted bullpen or bringing in the overworked hurlers?

Glad you're gone Sam. You may have been a good guy but you were a lousy manager.

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I sponsored the Scott Moore page over at Baseball-Reference.com. It will expire soon but I sponsored Brian Burres last year. Yes, I'm desperately cheap...