This Week in Chat, Part 2: 9/28/2012

Part 2 of the weeks chats boiled down to their Oriole essence...

Dave Cameron, Fangraphs.com

12:03 Comment From Preston
Could the Orioles outperforming their expected wins based on WAR mean that we are over-valuing defense and under-valuing bullpens in the equation?

12:03 Dave Cameron:
No.

12:05 Comment From Person hscer
if the wild cards end up atlanta st. louis oakland baltimore, who has the best chance at the WS? the worst?

12:05 Dave Cameron:
I think St. Louis is the best of those four teams. Baltimore's probably the worst.

12:05 Comment From The Oriole Bird
Do you expect the O's to be a big player in this year's free agent market? If so, whom would you expect them to target?

12:06 Dave Cameron:
Yeah, my guess would be that they'll look to add a big name pitcher to the rotation. I could see them in on Greinke, Haren, or Peavy.

12:24 Comment From TKDC
Say the Yankees are a game back of the Orioles on the last day of the season and they play either before or at the same time (so a win could be meaningless). If possible, would you throw your ace, or would you save him for the one-game playoff?

12:25 Dave Cameron:
The play-in game should be a bullpen day, so I'd use Sabathia and watch the scoreboard very closely.

12:55 Comment From Dan
Without making any changes to the roster, Baltimore will be a __ win team in 2013.

12:55 Dave Cameron:
85.

12:59 Comment From Scott
Does Bundy pitch over 100 innings in the majors next year?

12:59 Dave Cameron:
Don't think he's ready yet, no.


Wallace Matthews, ESPN.com

george (boston)
8 games left - what's your guess at the Yanks record? Let's say 5-3. That would mean the O's would have to play to 6-1 to force a tiebreaker. So ... Yanks pretty much a division lock?

Wallace Matthews (12:34 PM)
I figured at the start of this stretch the Yankees would win at least 6 of these last 10 games, and more likely seve. They are 1-1 so far, so sticking with my gut, that means a final record of 95-67


Ian Miller, Baseball Prospectus

Roger (Washington DC):
So 2012 has seen the debut of Harper, Machado, Profar, and Bundy. At least two and quite possibly three of them are up for good. Is this the greatest group of teenagers collectively in the majors at the same time? More importantly, what the heck is happening to the standard development curve?

Ian Miller:
I can't say for certain that they're the best group of teens ever, but OTOH, I can't think of any other group, so maybe, yeah!

The second part of your question is far more interesting to me, though. Is this just a fluke, or is it something more profound? Are diets or training regimens or something else entirely causing players (kids) to develop faster than ever? I think that's a very real possibility, but it's not a question a liberal arts guy like me can answer.

Intriguing, though.


Tony La Russa, ESPN.com

Henry (Phoenix)
How good for the game is it that we've seen teams like Baltimore, Washington, and at least earlier in the season, Pittsburgh, have some success this year?

Tony La Russa (3:31 PM)
I think one of the problems with our system is so often the city and the fans going into spring training don't have a realistic chance of being excited. Like Tampa Bay if you draft smart and develop well, you can build a nucleus and make some moves to jump into the competition.


Keith Law, ESPN.com

Ryan (DC)
The Orioles run differential is down to -1. Thoughts?

Klaw (1:07 PM)
Which means they've played roughly like a .500 team. There's been a weird emphasis on the O's run differential potentially turning positive, as if that's a binary variable. It's not. The point is that a team that barely outscores its opponents on the season doesn't end up 20 games over .500 without a lot of good fortune.

Rob (DC)
What do you think is the ceiling for Tillman? Been looking pretty good this year.

Klaw (1:25 PM)
He has looked good. Looking at him as a potential above-average starter again.

Mike (DC)
Do you think Showalter is a big reason for the O's success this year? Seems like he manages circles around people...

Klaw (1:27 PM)
I think he's a reason, but no manager can entirely explain their success this year.

Randy (Baltimore)
How do you see the Machado/Hardy situation playing out in BAL for 2013?

Klaw (1:28 PM)
If I were the GM there I'd try to trade Hardy and get Machado back to shortstop, which I believe is his long-term position.

Mike (DC)
Think Jonathon Schoop could be the O's long term answer at 2B, or is he more likely to move to 3B and take over there when Machado goes to SS?

Klaw (1:32 PM)
Third base. But I think he was rushed this year.

Andrew (LA)
I'm glad the O's called up Bundy to get his feet wet. What situations would be ideal for Bundy to pitch i.e. mop up duty or close contests?

Klaw (1:50 PM)
I'd rather use him in longer outings than short ones. Not concerned about the score, just don't want to see him used like a short reliever, warmed up more than once in a game, asked to come in and air it out for a few pitches, etc.

Joe (Chicago)
I have seen a lot of Orioles fans says that the reason Bundy is able to pitch now is because the Orioles made him throw three inning starts earlier in the season. What is your response to this?

Klaw (1:55 PM)
Shelby Miller.

Muzzy (Leicesster)
Mr. Law, I have a three-part Davis question for you: Ike's overall numbers are not good, but is there anything in his swing that says he's not the player he was or is not healthy? Chris Davis is having a breakout year...that looks almost exactly like his career slash line. Is this the "real" Chris? Finally, can Khris hit enough to overcome his fielding limitations? Thanks!

Klaw (2:00 PM)
Ike: will always swing and miss, but there's power there. This is probably the real Chris. Khris (Brewers prospect) probably gets there as an extra guy.


Mike Newman, Fangraphs.com

4:10 Comment From The Oriole Bird
What kind of future, if any, do you see for LJ Hoes?

4:11 Mike Newman:
Tweener type. Potentially a 4th outfielder, but I don't think he contributes quite enough to be considered a starter.

4:41 Comment From Jeremy Strain
Did you get a chance to see Delmonico with Delmarva before he got hurt? What's your take on him?

4:42 Mike Newman:
Yes, and I've written about him at FG at length. I liked the hit tool, but LOL'd at their attempts to make him a 2B. He will be ranked on my list of the top 1B prospects I've seen this season.


Jayson Stark, ESPN.com

Mike (San Diego)
You have no idea how much I'm rooting for Oakland, LAA, Baltimore, and Tampa to have the same record. Bring on the chaos!

Jayson Stark (1:33 PM)
Easy for you to say. You don't have to travel 12,000 miles in 72 hours to break all those ties!

Curt (Trappe Md)
Very exciting time to be an Oriole fan this year which is something we have not had for almost 20 years, but how do you explain a team without 1 player having an average of 300 is knocking on the door of the division title?

Jayson Stark (1:35 PM)
It's incredible, isn't it? And only one pitcher making 20 starts! I'm going to quote my friend Casey Stern of Sirius/XM fame. Heard him say one day the Orioles aren't a great team, but they're one of the greatest stories ever. Totally agree.

Wayne (Baltimore)
How about them Birds!!! With the schedule that both teams have remaining (Red Sox and Rays for O's, Jay's and Sox for Yanks) what realistic chance do the Orioles have of winning the East outright?

Jayson Stark (1:41 PM)
I don't like their chances, based on the schedule alone. The Yankees finish with the Blue Jays and Red Sox, two teams that are 37 games under .500 just since Aug. 1. The Orioles also get the Red Sox at home, but those three games in Tampa Bay to finish up look awfully precarious.

Danny (Baltimore)
Does Matt Wieters deserve any MVP consideration, he has done a masterful job handling the O's rotation mess.

Jayson Stark (1:57 PM)
He'd be in my top 10. He's had a fantastic season. Really fulfilling expectations that people had for him.

This Week in Chat: 9/26/2012

Where we boil all the weeks baseball chats down to their Oriole essence...

(For the first time in the history of this semi-regular feature, the Baltimore Orioles are seemingly the talk of the baseball world and there is so much here after Tuesday's chats for a post. I'll post part two from this week on Saturday...)

Dan Szymborski, Fangraphs.com

12:05 Comment From Joel
How excited were you last night (if you watched the O's game), when you saw Dylan Bundy jog out to the mound? Any impressions?

12:05 Dan Szymborski:
Unfortunately I wasn't. Because I had run upstairs to get a bite to eat because I hadn't had any lunch and I was hungry. I got back in time to see the last pitch in Valencia. I'm going to look back at the game this afternoon. That's why awesome starting prospects need to have announced debuts.

12:15 Comment From Os Fan
I Steve Johnson.

12:15 Dan Szymborski:
I Dan Szymborski.

12:34 Comment From JT
How should the Orioles handle their postseason rotation? Do you think a Rockies-esque paired pitching system would suit them best?

12:34 Dan Szymborski:
I dont' think you want to go with anything too crazy at this point - dangerous time to start experimenting. The WC game is, however, the focal point of the offseason that all planning should go through - it's the only game in advance that you know for a fact will risk your elimination.

12:37 Comment From The Oriole Bird
I'm going to the doubleheader today. Think I'll see Bundy pitch?

12:37 Dan Szymborski:
Hope so! Good luck!

12:47 Comment From Os Fan
Dangit, that was a "less than three" heart there. What gives cover it live?

12:47 Dan Szymborski: Ah, so you're not Steve Johnson? Definitely gotta dig that ultra-slow loopy curve that he has.

12:49 Comment From STiVo
Estimate the likelihood of the following happening today: The Orioles sweep today's doubleheader against the Jays, and the Yankees lose to the Twins. If this occurs, the O's will be 0.5 games ahead of the Yankees.

12:50 Dan Szymborski:
let's say 36% for winning both and Yankees 35% lose to Twins. That's what, 12%?

12:54 Comment From Darn Zimbowski
Dan Duquette's #1 priority this offseason...?

12:54 Dan Szymborski:
3B

1:04 Comment From Penguinis
Last week, Dave Cameron said Mark Reynolds is "awful" at first base, while a general consensus of Oriole fans, broadcasters, and Buck Showalter seem to think he's playing gold glove caliber defense. What do you think? And if he's actually any good, why does UZR hate him?

1:04 Dan Szymborski: I don't think he's quite that awful. I don't think he's all that good. After watching Reynolds at third, he's going to inevitably look good. Like how after you watch a rerun of Suddenly Susan, Two and a Half Men doesn't seem so bad.


Jerry Crasnick, ESPN.com

Ryan (State College)
Whats the most fascinating storyline left with so few games to play?

Jerry Crasnick (1:02 PM)
Ryan, For me, it's the Orioles and A's both making spirited runs at the wild card spots. But you can also look at the fallout that will ensue if the Tigers and Angels fail to make the playoffs. I'm a Little Engine that Could type of guy, so I like the underdog storylines.

Harrison (New York)
Who are your AL and NL managers of the year? (I've got Buck Showalter(AL) and Don Mattingly(NL))

Jerry Crasnick (1:08 PM)
Harrison, I'll go with Showalter in the American League. As for the National League, I think the first place managers -- Johnson, Baker and Bochy -- will all get some support. You can make a strong case for Dusty Baker given how his team played in Votto's absence, and the way he didn't let his contract status become a distraction.

Nick (College Park)
Jerry, given that they don't have an ace, I wouldn't make the O's a favorite vs. anyone in the WC, but in a full series, I think they've got a fighting shot. They've got a good record agains everyone but Texas, I think. I think we've also reached the point in the season where almost nothing they do will surprise me. What say you?

Jerry Crasnick (1:39 PM)
Nick, I spent two months writing off the Orioles, then I just threw up my hands and decided they're for real. There are some things in baseball that can't be fully explained by the numbers, and that team's success is one of them.

Jay (Baltimore)
So would you give Jim Johnson/O's bullpen the O's MVP? or Showalter? or Adam Jones?

Jerry Crasnick (1:44 PM)
Jay, That's a really apple and orange-y comparison. I would probably go with Adam Jones because he does so many things day-in and day-out for that club. He has really matured into a leader and a guy who's accountable every game. Throw in the power and the defense in center, and he's an incredibly valuable piece for that club. I think he helped keep them together when Markakis went down with what could have been a crushing injury.

Jason (St Louis)
The Orioles may be for real as you say but they don't have the look of a team built to make a run in the playoffs, if you want my unsolicited honest opinion. They've got to lose an extra innings game one of these day at a minimum.

Jerry Crasnick (1:46 PM)
Jason, I hear you. The rotation looks iffy for October and you have to wonder when the strain of pitching all those one-run and extra-inning games will catch up to that bullpen -- a la the Braves of 2011. But I'm past the point of saying that team"can't" do anything.


Bill Parker, Baseball Prospectus

Albert (DC):
What do you think of the 2012 Orioles?

Bill Parker:
I'm in favor. Look, I know they probably aren't a great team, etc. In my mind, though, there's a difference between wanting a setup that makes it more likely that the best teams come out on top (which is kind of what my last answer was about) and actually wanting the best teams to always come out on top. If we've got a good, competitive system, and you're a mediocre team that somehow beats that system over a full 162-game schedule, good for you! I'd love to see an Orioles-Nats World Series, both because I spent a few years down there and it'd make me happy, and because I think it makes for the best story.

@jakelarsen (chicago):
Looking at the remaining schedule for Wild Card contenders and Division leaders, who do you see making playoffs when all the dust has cleared?

Bill Parker:
I think the Yankees win the AL East, because they get to play the Twins now. I think the White Sox win the Central by default, because nobody wants it at all, and obviously the Rangers win the West. I don't see a compelling reason to go against the current WC leaders, Baltimore and Oakland. In the NL, with the Brewers getting creamed as I type, it's all but set in stone: Washington, Cincinnati, San Francisco, Atlanta and St. Louis.

john (ct):
Orioles-Nats would be great for baseball. As a lifelong O's fan- back to the days of Brooks Robinson, this season has been a very pleasnat surprise. And how about the Nats- no more "first in war, first in peace and last in the American League". Gonzalez just struck out 200. Walter Johnson was the Washington player to do that!

Bill Parker:
Not a question, so I don't have an answer, I just love the excitement.


Jeff Sullivan, FanGraphs.com

12:07 Comment From Kyle
Where's the love for the O's Steve Johnson? Guy is so good.

12:08 Jeff Sullivan:
The Orioles overall make so little reasonable sense that it's hard to focus on any one individual player of theirs. Sure, we could focus on Steve Johnson for a little bit, but then it's like, shouldn't we just be talking about the Orioles? What on earth is going on with the Orioles?

12:16 Comment From The Oriole Bird
Over the next three seasons, how many times do you expect Adam Jones to post more than 4.5 WAR?

12:17 Jeff Sullivan:
I'll say one time? And another time where he's very close. And one time where he's more like 2-3, due to either underperformance or injury


David Schoenfield, ESPN.com

John (NC)
Hey David, with 8 Games left for the Orioles, 1 1/2 games back in the East and 1 1/2 games up on the A's (3 1/2 on Angels), where do you see Baltimore's season going from this point?? And if they make the playoffs, how far do you see them going?

David Schoenfield (2:07 PM)
I think the Yankees win the East and the O's take the first wild card. The lack of an "ace" would seem to hurt them in the wild-card game, but of course Showalter would have a very quick hook. But I don't see them beating the Rangers in the Division Series. Nothing they do would surprise me though. An O's-Nats Beltway Series would be pretty fun.

This Week in Chat: 2/13/2011

Where we distill all the week's baseball chats down to their Oriole essence...

Fangraphs After Dark Chat

9:27 Comment From SeanP
Dan Duquette said that the Orioles couldn't get any team to trade prospects for Jeremy Guthrie. Does that change the outlook of the Guthrie-for-Hammel/Lindstrom trade?

9:27 Chris Cwik:
Not really. At least get something useful for Guthrie. The O's didn't even cut salary in the deal. What was the point?

9:28 Paul Swydan:
No. He should have waited until the deadline. The stories about the O's and Guthrie clashing over arb negotiations brought back memories of the Duke and John Valentin bickering in the media about what doctor should perform his knee surgery.

9:28 Zach Sanders:
I never thought they'd get a prospect, so no, not for me. I liked it for the Os, actually. Hammel will never meet his FIP numbers or stuff, but Lindstrom is more than useful.

9:40 Comment From Fattinton_Bear
Does Jeremy Guthrie going to COL make him have fantasy value since he'll be in an easier division and an easier league?

9:40 Chris Cwik:
I'm not a big Guthrie fan. So, no.

9:40 Zach Sanders:
I have him getting a small boost, but it's pretty much the same.

9:41 Paul Swydan:
I don't think so. I don't think any Rockies starting pitcher is really worth drafting this year.


Dave Cameron, Fangraphs

12:19 Comment From Charles
Convince me that Dan Duquette isn't the absolute worst general manager in the game right now

12:19
Ned Colletti.


Dave Schoenfield, ESPN

Austin (A's fan in NYC)
Dave,Based on everything from current on-field talent to front-office aptitude, ownership and ballpark situations, division, and payroll considerations, how would you rank the teams facing the longest roads to serious contention? I'm thinking 1 Baltimore (farthest from contention); 2 Houston; 3 Mets; 4 Pittsburgh; fifth?Mariners? I?m hoping not my A?s, but they're probably part of the conversation.

David Schoenfield (1:05 PM)
I think everyone agrees the Astros have the least talent in the organization (from majors down to the minors). But they do at least play in the NL Central, so they may be able to rebuild in 3-4 years. Considering their division, I agree with you: Orioles are probably No. 1 on this list, even though they have some talent in the bigs and on the farm. I'd probably rank the A's "ahead" of the Mariners. Ballpark situation just too big of a negative.

Confused (Baltimore)
Dan Duquette, misunderstood genius or delusional? He seems to be tilting at windmills to me. What am I missing?

David Schoenfield (1:24 PM)
Yeah, I'm not quite sure what the Guthrie trade was all about. I know he saves money with Hammel and he gets two years of team control with Hammel and Lindstrom, but seems Guthrie could have been flipped for a good prospect with SIX years of team control. Not a terrible trade, but not one that really accomplishes anything for Baltimore.

John (Baltimore)
Does Matusz turn it around this year or is he a bust?

David Schoenfield (1:34 PM)
No idea. I know he's said his velocity was down after returning, but I still wonder if he was pitching through an injury. Or maybe he just went through what Halladay did as a young pitcher. Halladay had to go all the way back to Class A to rediscover his mechanics.

Jason (St Louis)
How about Adam Jones for Shelby Miller, Zack Cox and Jon Jay? Who says no?

David Schoenfield (1:43 PM)
I think the Cardinals do. I'm on record as thinking Jones is overrated. Jay is OK and Miller's potential isn't worth the upgrade from Jay to Jones.


Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus

Paul (DC):
Who are the likely top contenders to bid for Yoennis Cespedes' services?

Kevin Goldstein:
Cubs, Marlins, Orioles, White Sox, Blue Jays, Rangers, mystery team.

john m (ct):
Any chance Brian Matusz regains his stuff?

Kevin Goldstein:
There is obviously SOME chance, it's counting on it that is the risky part.


Keith Law, ESPN

bubble boy (the bubble)
If Bundy were 6'4 would he be top 5? I know, if if were a skiff we'd all be sailing...

Klaw (1:20 PM)
Best line I heard on him was from a senior FO guy who said something close to this: "If Dylan Bundy was 6'4" he'd be in an Opening Day rotation."

Joe (Pittsburgh)
In hindsight, should the pirates regret choosing Taillon over Machado

Klaw (1:21 PM)
That seems awfully strong, and awfully quick. Even if they get the lesser player, Taillon's not a stiff.

Snakes (Philly)
The Orioles Guthrie to Colorado trade is... strange at best. What were they thinking in your opinion? Oh- and they are likely to sign Manny Ramirez too!!

Klaw (1:46 PM)
At best, it's a lateral move. And it's probably a small step back.

Kevin (MD)
O's fan here. Talk me off my ledge and give me hope for the future Keith! Anything to look forward to other than Bundy or Machado?

Klaw (2:18 PM)
Schoop, Bridwell, Delmonico. It's not Houston, where there's just very little talent. But you've got the worst owner in the game, and a GM operating out of a playbook so old it's written on papyrus.

Jeb (Chicago)
Thoughts regarding KBA banning Baltimore because of Kim Seong-min? Did Baltimore really mess up or is this not a big deal?

Klaw (2:20 PM)
They messed up. MLB values its relationships with KBO and NPB, so I imagine they're really unhappy. All this for a non-prospect, too.

This Week in Chat - 12/19/2011

Where we distill all the recent baseball chats down to their Oriole essence...


Jason Parks, Baseball Prospectus

Will T. (Cary, N.C.):
Upside of Orioles RHP Parker Bridwell?

Jason Parks:
Could be an innings horse, but he still has a long way to go. He's a Texan, so that helps.

@Lembeck451 (Detroit):
Has Chris Davis officially become Chris Shelton (please say yes, please say yes), or does he have a bounceback in him?

Jason Parks:
He could bounce back, but he's probably a 4A


Tim Dierkes, MLB Trade Rumors

2:08 Comment From Dathan
What are the chances the Cardinals end up with either Adam Jones or Carlos Beltran, and which do you think is the better fit in St. Louis?

2:08 Tim Dierkes:
Jones for sure, but I don't see any indication he's available.

2:16 Comment From DumbBravesFan
Is Prado/Jurrjens (2 arb guys not in Braves' future plans) too much to give up for Adam Jones (a potential cornerstone)?

2:16 Tim Dierkes:
I'd move those two for two years of Jones, but he's not a cornerstone unless you extend him to a huge deal.

2:28 Comment From Lonely Non-Tender list
Who's the best value out there from the recent non-tender list?

2:29 Tim Dierkes:
Hong-Chih Kuo, maybe Luke Scott.

2:58 Comment From Tim
Just to be clear, the Orioles would need to get a better return than Prado/Jurrjens for AJ, correct? At least younger, more controllable players?

2:58 Tim Dierkes:
Yes, I'd want a much different return for Adam Jones as well. We have to get a feel for Dan Duquette though.

2:58 Comment From Omazing
Some Orioles sites are saying there is tons of interest in Luke Scott.. any truth to this?

2:59 Tim Dierkes:
I think Dan Connolly said ten teams called. Certainly makes sense to me, get him for one year and $5MM plus incentives not too far removed from some .500 slugging seasons.


Keith Law, ESPN

Kevin (Jersey)
Profar or Machado? Or are we splitting hairs?

Klaw (1:25 PM)
Machado. But it's not a huge gap. Pretty strong crop of SS prospects right now.

Ethan (Maine)
Why are we hearing nothing about the japenese free agent pitchers Wei-Yin Chen and Iwakuma?

Klaw (1:26 PM)
Haven't we heard Baltimore with Chen? I also assume that we need to get Darvish cleared from the market before those guys get more interest, just because they're second-tier (not just because they're also international FAs).

Michael (San Jose, CA)
Lots of disappointment in Oakland right now for us A's fans? With the emergence of the Rangers and Angels, we're basically the Baltimore Orioles without the nice ballpark.

Klaw (2:08 PM)
But you have competent management. I'm not sure we can say that for Baltimore given ownership's clear intention to meddle.

Alex (NJ)
Keith, O's pitching moves (Eveland, Wada): reasonable gambles to see who might have a decent enough year to stick, or near-guaranteed 5-ish ERA flameouts? Hope for the future obviously lies with Matusz, Britton, and guys still in the minors, but they could do worse than try Wada every fifth day, right?

Klaw (2:20 PM)
I don't see it. Low upside guys in a tough division.

Jason (St Louis)
The no on Palmeiro is because he was a consistent stat builder and not a hof, not because he used peds right?

Klaw (2:21 PM)
Correct. Really never among the best players in his league.

This Week in Chat - 12/14/2011

Where we distill all the recent baseball chats down to their Oriole essence...

Fangraphs After Dark Chat

Comment From Kyle
Guthire and Reimold for Volquez and Alonso. Moldy is underrated, 1.5 WAR in 80-ish games with a .261 BABIP

9:06 Jeff Zimmerman:
To the Brewers , but I agree with Paul that he stays.

9:07 Jeff Zimmerman:
I would keep Volquez for one more season on the potential

9:07 Paul Swydan:
Not sure I see the upside of the Reds acquiring Guthrie.

Comment From Baltimoron
HBT says the Cubs are trying to dump Soriano on the O's. Are the O's so bad that even Soriano could help?

9:10 Paul Swydan:
Probably not, no. But can't blame the Cubs for trying!

9:10 Jeff Zimmerman:
I think Theo want Soriano gone and the Cubs can't dump him. Trade him to a team that has no problems doing it.


Dan Szymborski, FanGraphs.com

12:46 Comment From kyle
zips thoughts on brian matusz?

12:47 Dan Szymborski:
ZiPS has his mean down to an ERA+ of 80, but still sees him as being nearly 1-in-4 of being league-average or better.

12:47 Dan Szymborski:
2011 was pretty much an unmitigated disaster for Matusz.

12:52 Comment From AC
Do you buy that the O's will really bid on Cesepedes? Also what is max you would offer him for contract?

12:53 Dan Szymborski:
I'd go a bit higher than Chapman, but I'd stop before we start talking 8 figures a year. There's a lot of uncertainty. Cespedes projects as a solid 3 win player a number of years, but we have so few Cuban translations and natural uncertainty as to his age.

1:06 Comment From Teddy
What does ZiPS have to say about Zack Britton? Is there a curse on all Orioles' pitching prospects?

1:07 Dan Szymborski:
ZiPS has Britton at 10-12, 4.85.

1:17 Comment From Archer
Dan Duquette noted that Dana Eveland had won 15 games last season between AAA and the Majors (12 in AAA), and that not a lot of lefties could say the same last season. This has to make the Os a huge threat this season, no?

1:18 Dan Szymborski:
Eveland's Baltimore projection is 7-11, 5.44. He's a lousy pitcher.


Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus

RD (NYC):
Could Adam Loewen become an everyday MLB outfielder?

Kevin Goldstein:
No. Could end up a bench guy though.


Keith Law, ESPN

Matt (No Cal)
Do Schoop and Story both end up at 2B and what kind of players do you see them developing into both offensively and defensively? Thanks.

Klaw (12:00 PM)
Schoop is a 3b, Trevor Story stays at ss. Schoop is raw but very young, chance to be an above-average regular or better. I have real questions about Story's bat, but I think he's a legit SS.

Josh (VA)
Thoughts on DD as GM in Baltimore?

Klaw (12:01 PM)
I think this is going to go very poorly. Latest thing I've heard out of there is that, despite an industry trend where teams have decoupled amateur and pro scouting, he's recoupled them in Baltimore because ... that's how they did it in Boston.

Jason (NJ)
The discussion that is being held in my office is that although Bundy's ceiling is higher than Hultzen, it is offset by the ballparks they pitch in. We are using you as the tiebreaker....

Klaw (12:14 PM)
Ballparks affect superficial stat lines, but not ceiling. Bundy is better.

Moki Dugway (Korea)
Who is the safer pick for future success, Machado or Sano?

Klaw (12:14 PM)
Machado.


Mike Newman, FanGraphs.com

5:18 Comment From GTW
Thoughts on Baltimore's pickup of Ryan Flaherty in the Rule 5 Draft today? Projected any better than replacement level?

5:19 Mike Newman:
When really bad utility players go for a couple of million, I love the move. In all honesty, he's an asset as a replacement level, minimum salaried player.

5:35 Comment From Marver
What prospects are you looking forward to seeing in person the most?

5:36 Mike Newman:
In 2012, Josh Bell and Dylan Bundy head that list.

6:04 Comment From Tommy
Thoughts on Matt Antonetti?

6:05 Mike Newman:
I liked him in AAA when I saw him and wrote about his being a guy who should receive another shot. The market for utility infielders was pretty expensive all things considered and the Orioles made a strong signing with very little risk.

This Week in Chat - 6/27/11

Hello there.

My TWiC entry for the week is up over here at Camden Depot. Enjoy!

This Week in Chat - 6/21/2011

Hello, again.

If you liked the "This Week in Chat" recaps I had been doing this season, I have started posting them with Camden Depot over at the ESPN Sweetspot blog. Here's the link to this week's rundown.

More on this space soon, I promise...

This Week in Chat - 5/22/11

Where we distill all the week's baseball chats down to their Oriole essence...

Jonah Keri, FanGraphs.com

12:23 Comment From John
Your discussion with Longoria reminded me of an article I read a few years back about Brian Roberts wearing contacts with a red tint to them so he could pick up the ball better? Are these still used? I haven't read anything about them since.

12:24 Jonah Keri:
See I'm fascinated by stuff like that. I'd be trying every little trick if I played, or made decisions for a major league team, to gain an edge.

I might try to look into this, good call.

1:03 Comment From Zach Britton
Why is there so much ROY hype for Jeremy Helickson and not so much for me?

1:03 Jonah Keri:
What hype is this? I like Hellickson, but it's not like he's leading SportsCenter on a nightly basis.

Jim Callis, Baseball America

Jeff (North Carolina):
Who do the o's take with the 4th pick? Dylan Bundy in the mix, despite his huge demands?

Jim Callis:
I've been hearing the Orioles would prefer a college pitcher. I don't think the demands matter much, because they're so high (six years, $30 million) that clubs don't believe they're close to realistic. They'd love a shot at Danny Hultzen.


David Schoenfield, ESPN

John (MI)
Thoughts on Adam Jones so far? .280 average, 20HR/20SB this season?

David Schoenfield (1:31 PM)
Seems like I get an Adam Jones question every week. He's been hitting lately and he's up to .283 with a .777 OPS, which is actually above league average these days. He's drawn a walk in three straight games, which is probably a career high. Unless he can lay off the offspeed stuff away, this is the best I think we'll see from him ... which isn't terrible, just not what everybody projected a few years ago.

Derr (Mental Ward)
Do you think if Adam Jones got moved up in the lineup he could potentially be a highly productive player. Problem is he has Reynolds hitting behind him so he never sees any good pitches

David Schoenfield (2:04 PM)
Lineup protection is generally overrated. Jones doesn't see any "good" pitches because pitchers know he'll swing at the bad ones.

Matt Eddy, Baseball America

Shoshana (Baltimore):
It's depressing enough being an Orioles fan. Any hope for the future from the farm system besides Machado? Throw us a bone and at least answer a question on the Orioles :)

Matthew Eddy:
Baltimore has the fourth pick in the draft, and that's only three weeks away. Don't forget that the O's have a lot of young major leaguers who could still improve — Matusz, of course, but also Arrieta and Reimold and Tillman.


Keith Law, ESPN

Jack (D.C.)
I like your idea of the Orioles taking Bundy, but I keep hearing they want a college arm. Where do all the rumors come from, are they made up? Also, any reason you believe they'd pass on Cole?

Klaw (2:29 PM)
Most teams view Bundy as the equivalent of a college arm because he's so polished and is physically well-developed. He's a big leaguer in 2 to 2.5 years.

Ryan (Hanover, PA)
Why does Starling keep falling in all of your mocks? I would love to see the Orioles take him at #4

Klaw (2:38 PM)
It's just cost. He's not "falling" in the sense of talent or performance, but fear that he won't sign or - more likely - fear that he'll want more money than teams are willing to spend. They'd rather spend that $10 million on one year of Rafael Soriano, I guess.

This Week in Chat - 5/15/2011

Where we distill all the weekly baseball chatsdown to their Oriole essence...

Dave Cameron, FanGraphs.com

12:20 Comment From Guest
Taillon or Machado if Machado moves to 3b?

12:20 Dave Cameron:
Take the hitter. Almost always take the hitter.


Jonah Keri, FanGraphs.com

12:03 Comment From Cheese
Is Luke Scott going under the knife? Should he be replaced by (gulp) Milton Bradley?

12:04 Jonah Keri:
Scott's still playing as of now, despite a torn labrum. He might still be able to hit with the condition, we'll see.

Don't see what the O's would want with Bradley. They're not winning anything this year anyway, and Bradley obviously comes with more baggage than your usual veteran flyer.


Ben Badler, Baseball America

Chris (Chicago): \
Please rank the following in terms of their long-term major league impact: Zack Britton, Mike Montgomery, Mike Minor, Joe Odozirri.

Ben Badler:
Montgomery, Britton, Odorizzi, Minor

Jon Bass (Ann Arbor, MI):
All right, this technically isn't a Hot sheet question since Zach Britton is in Baltimore, but does he return to the minors when everyone else is healthy? He is their best pitcher right now.

Ben Badler:
Britton has to stay. Send Bergesen or Tillman back to Triple-A.

Rick (Chicago):
What kind of potential does Brett Jackson have and how would he compare to someone like Adam Jones? Thanks.

Ben Badler:
They're both good athletes who run well but aren't burners, have power but are prone to swing and miss, but Jackson's approach at the plate is well ahead of anything Jones has ever shown.


Matt Klaassen, FanGraphs.com

1:13 Comment From AK
Adam Jones, simply on a to-be-expected hot streak, or turning into the player Os fans have been waiting for?

1:14 Matt Klaassen:
If I had to bet, I'd say "hot streak," but he' still young enough that this could be "it," despite my skepticism about small sample "breakouts." I will say that Jones has been more disappointing than Wieters overall, given that Wieters plays a harder position and plays it well, and Jones not only hasn't hit all that well, but hasn't come close to matching his defensive reputation.


Steve Slowinski/Jeff Zimmerman, FanGraphs.com

1:59 Comment From Paul
What are your thoughts on Mark Reynold's start to the seaon?

2:00 Jeff Zimmerman:
I try not to

2:01 Steve Slowinski:
Well, to put it bluntly, he's been really bad. His batting average is even lower than last year's (thanks to an even lower BABIP) and his defense is as atrocious as you'd expect. The power hasn't appeared much yet, which is the worst part...thankfully that doesn't stabilize for a while still, though, so he could break out anytime.

2:01 Jeff Zimmerman:
His K's are down. Sadly, I feel the Orioles are stuck with him.

2:02 Steve Slowinski:
But he's not a bad option for them right now - I think it's too early to give up hope entirely. If that power appears at some point, he'll still be a decent player.

2:04 Comment From xandersdad
Will Luke Scott make it through the season with his shoulder?

2:05 Steve Slowinski:
Required joke: I refuse to believe it'll be an issue until I see the long-form doctor's note. (It's okay, I know I'm not funny)

2:05 Jeff Zimmerman:
No and he shouldn't be trying to play through it right not. Best case - mediocre season, Worst case - re-injures and can never play again.

2:57 Comment From Mark Reynolds
My defense isn't that bad.

2:57 Jeff Zimmerman:
On the run environment, it will matter, but not too much yet.

2:58 Steve Slowinski:
Mark, yes it is. Nice try, though. If only Vlad wasn't a DH, you'd totally belong there.


Keith Law, ESPN

Nick (Baltimore)
Keith, love your work, appreciate your work ethic. Matusz, Britton, Arrieta, Tillman. In that order?

Klaw (1:21 PM)
I give 110%. In that order, yes.

Ryan (Hanover, PA)
Thoughts on the Machado injury?

Klaw (1:56 PM)
He's just out a few weeks, right? So I think ... he'll be back in a few weeks.

Nick (Baltimore)
I am home sick from work so I am finally able to see your chat live! (espn is blocked) Any thoughts on the O's at 4? I am really hoping Trevor Baeur is our man if he is there.

Klaw (2:03 PM)
I believe he's in their mix, and don't see him going ahead of that.

This Week in Chat - 5/8/2011

Where we distill all the week's baseball chats down to their Oriole essence...

JJ Cooper, Baseball America

Will T. (Cary, N.C.): Can Brandon Snyder be a starting first baseman in the majors?

J.J. Cooper: It doesn't seem like even the Orioles still think that—they talked about him being a versatile utilityman when he was in the big league camp in spring training.

Mark (Sydney): Mr. Cooper, what's going on with former first round pick Matt Hobgood? Thanks.

J.J. Cooper: Hobgood is trying to work his way back from a shoulder injury. I wouldn't expect much out of him over the first half of this season. If he can start pitching competitively in June or so and stay healthy the rest of the year while showing pre-injury stuff, I bet the Orioles would be very happy.

Spencer (Baltimore): Who do you think is the long term answer at first base for the orioles, Joe Mahoney, Brandon Snyder or someone else?

J.J. Cooper: Someone else.


Jerry Crasnick, ESPN

Matt (Milford, De)
Is Zach Britton the front runner for AL Rookie of the Year?

Jerry Crasnick (12:04 PM)
Matt, Last week I pointed out that I was feeling good about my Michael Pineda ROY choice, and I received a flood of responses from Zach Britton advocates. If what we've seen so far is any indication, it could be a nice little slugfest between those two kids.

jason (richmond, VA)
what do you think about weiters so far this year? He is hitting 9-10 with RISP i believe is this going to be the year he brings the bat to the ballpark to?

Jerry Crasnick (12:34 PM)
Jason, Wow, I didn't realize that until you mentioned it. Matt Wieters has an OPS of 2.923 with men in scoring position. From the people I've talked to, his bat is still a work in progress, but his defense (particularly his throwing) is extremely impressive. With all the talent on that young staff, they need him to think defense first and pitch in with some key hits. So far he's doing that.

Zack (CT)
9-10 with RISP? SMAL SAMPLE SIZE ALERT

Jerry Crasnick (12:35 PM)
Zack, There are small sample sizes, and ridiculous smal sample sizes. 9-for-10 catches your eye no matter what we're talking about.


Jonah Keri, FanGraphs.com

12:41 Comment From Guest
In fantasy, would you trade Wieters for Garza?

12:41 Jonah Keri:
Yes.

1:14 Comment From Nat
What do you think about Adam Jones? He always confounds me

1:14 Jonah Keri:
Still young. Can take guys a long time to figure it all out. I always remember Brandon Phillips in these instances.

1:27 Comment From Eric
What do you see for McCutcheon the rest of the year? Like him more than Adam Jones?

1:27 Jonah Keri:
Definitely prefer McCutchen over Adam Jones. Real life or fantasy.


Jack Moore, FanGraphs.com

1:24 Comment From Os
Where do you think Britton ends up? Nice ratios so far, QS and wins, Zips rest of season is above 4, do you believe he is due for regression?

1:25 Jack Moore:
From what little I've seen him pitch, he has pretty nasty stuff. I'm sure he'll hit some sort of rookie wall at some point and his FIP is way above his ERA right now, so yeah, there's some regression coming. But I do think he'll be useful. Your best bet, though, is probably trying to deal him.


Dave Cameron, FanGraphs.com

12:03 Comment From Jevant
Can you give any positive news for a frustrated Nick Markakis fantasy owner?

12:03 Dave Cameron:
You are (hopefully) not a positive Vernon Wells owner?


David Schoenfield, ESPN

Nick Markakis (Baltimore)
I am offically a bust? Every year I seem to have high expectations and never reach them. What's your take on my future?

David Schoenfield (2:35 PM)
Bust? That's harsh. You're still a very good player. Just not the great player everyone thought you'd be after hitting 23 home runs at 23. But you still hit 40+ doubles every and play good defense. You're just off to slow start this year.

Paul (Atlanta)
Isn't Markakis esentially Mike Greenwell reincarnated? Similar start to his career followed by similar disappointment that he didn't become somthing more.

David Schoenfield (3:06 PM)
Good comparison. Both were very polished hitters when they arrived, and also sort of had "old player" skills in that they weren't necessarily fast runners but already had good strike zone judgment. I believe Greenwell had some injuries that led to his career being shortened?


Keith Law, ESPN

Adam Jones (Baltimore)
Cant... Stop... .Swinging... At... Sliders... IN.... the... DIRT!!!!

Klaw (1:34 PM)
They're just so pretty!

Shoshana (Boston)
Who are the Orioles on in the draft? Safe to say they take 1/3 between Hultzen/Stallings/Bundy? Or are they on someone else?

Klaw (2:15 PM)
Have heard them on Jed Bradley but I think that's cooled. Could see Bauer. Keep hearing college arm, but Bundy is kind of like a college arm and I know they really like him. Don't think they're on Gray. Pretty sure every team in 1-8 except maybe Seattle is at least thinking about Bauer.


Jim Shonerd, Baseball America

Will T. (Cary, N.C.): When will Manny Machado be in Frederick?

Jim Shonerd: The key question right now is when will he be back in Delmarva. It sounds like the Orioles think his knee injury isn't too serious. Hopefully that's the case.

This Week in Chat - 5/1/11

Where we distill all the weekly baseball chats down to their Oriole-centric essence...

Jonah Keri, FanGraphs.com



12:41 Comment From Big Jgke
Is there any division in baseball in which the top 4 teams in the AL East wouldn't all be contenders, outside of the AL East?

12:41 Jonah Keri: I don't think the Jays or Orioles are all that good this year. In past years, sure, you could have made the case about the Jays.


Marc Normandin, Baseball Prospectus

Charles Darwin (San Fran): Will Koji Uehara ever become a reliable source of saves now that he is the favorite? ALso, what are your thoughts on Edwin Jackson?

Marc Normandin: As Mike Petriello has said, as long as Uehera is healthy, he should be great in the role. I'm a big fan of Koji--I drafted him in a few leagues with the expectation the job would eventually be his.


Dave Cameron, FanGraphs.com

12:18 Comment From Rob
Matt Wieters has been on a tear since making an adjustment to a more upright batting stance about 2 weeks ago. What do you see in your crystal ball for him this season?

12:19 Dave Cameron: He's finally hitting for power, which was the missing ingredient the last few years. I still think he can be an all-star.

12:58 Comment From Bodhizefa
What's your favorite ballpark food and drink (from a specific park)?

12:58 Dave Cameron: In general, I avoid buying food at parks. I'm cheap, and it's not cost effective. That said, Boog's BBQ in Baltimore was pretty great.


Jim Callis, Baseball America

Steve Johnson (Boston): Your thoughts on Jonathan Schoop of the Orioles?? More upside than Machado???

Jim Callis: That's crazy on the upside, but Schoop is worth watching. One of Baltimore's better prospects.


Jack Moore, FanGraphs.com

12:44 Comment From Steve
Stil think Mark Reynolds can hit .220 and hit 30 homers? He's getting destroyed by AL East pitching right now.

12:45 Jack Moore:
I mean, that's not the highest bar anybody's ever set... I think he'll get there.

12:55 Comment From Bob B.
Prognosis on Adam Jones?

12:55 Jack Moore:
His problems are all BABIP (.226). He's not hitting any line drives right now, but he's a major league hitter, and I have to think he'll work his way out of it.


Keith Law, ESPN

Brady Anderson (Baldwin)
If you were the Baltimore GM who is your untouchables at trade deadline???

Klaw (1:37 PM)
I can't see why they'd trade Wieters or Matusz or Britton, but every veteran player should be available.

This Week in Chat - 4/24/11

Where we distill all the weekly baseball chats down to their Oriole-centric essence...

Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus

Todd (Austin):
Odds that Segura is the top SS prospect in next year's top 101?

Kevin Goldstein:
Battle will be between him and Machado. Francisco Lindor gets sleeper odds.

Jay (Madison):
Speaking of Machado, how's his D' looking in the early going? Can he stick at short?

Kevin Goldstein:
D has been just fine, but his future at short is not a question of skills, it's a question of how much that body is going to fill out.


Jack Moore, FanGraphs

12:22 Comment From James
Does Adam Jones have the power speed combo to be the next Carlos Gonzalez? Especially with the lineup support he has is this his year? Or soon in the future?

12:23 Jack Moore: Not that good, I don't think. And until he learns to take more walks, he's not going to have the kind of OBP he needs to really be a table-setter (cliche alert) either. Decent power, good speed for sure. But not nearly that talented of a hitter.


Frankie Piliere, Fangraphs.com

12:46 Comment From Dan (Baltimore)
If you were the Orioles and the draft was today...who would be your top four?

12:47 Frankie Piliere:
If it was my board I'd go Rendon, Cole, Hultzen, Springer. I'm sticking with George in that top group.


Jonah Keri, Fangraphs.com

12:00 Comment From Big Jgke
You've been pretty consistent in projecting the Jays to finish last in the AL East. Why do you think they're worse than Baltimore?

12:00 Jonah Keri:
Have I? Those 2 teams strike me as potentially close, and the difference might not be much. I wouldn't sweat it if the Orioles win 77 games and the Jays 76, or vice versa. Both aren't going to win just yet, but both have bright futures.

12:30 Comment From Bigsmooth
What happens to Britton when Matusz comes off the DL? What can we expect from Matusz?

12:31 Jonah Keri:
I'd keep Britton up and demote Tillman. I like Britton's present, and future, more than Tillman's. Matusz if healthy should be a solid, above-average pitcher.

12:46 Comment From Dan
Pssst, Wieters' OPS+ is sitting at 108 and he's playing fantastic defense behind the plate. I thought he was washed up?

12:47 Jonah Keri:
The rush by people to claim that a hot prospect is not as good as we thought is so silly. My mantra always begins and ends with Brandon Phillips.


Dave Cameron, Fangraphs.com

3:17 Comment From Chief Wahoo
Who's a good comp for Dustin Ackley?

3:18 Dave Cameron
Brian Roberts. Gap power, some homers, good speed, average to slightly above defender.


Jayson Stark, ESPN

kid123 (ny)
haha thank you for posting that, made my day! Biggest Sellers at the trade deadline? Baltimore and San Diego?

Jayson Stark (1:59 PM)
I'll vote Baltimore. So many marketable players on the last year of their contract. And not much chance they'll contend.

This Week in Chat - 4/17/11

Where we distill all the weekly baseball chats down to their Oriole-centric essence...

Jonah Keri, FanGraphs

12:18 [Comment From YankeesJunkie]
Would you vote for Manny to the HOF?

12:19 Jonah Keri:
Of course I would. Also Bonds, Clemens, McGwire, Sosa.

(I'm a maybe on Palmeiro, because PEDs aside, we need to adjust the offensive records of the era, and Palmeiro to me would be roughly the cut-off.)

12:58 [Comment From Dan]
How for real can Zach Britton be?

1:00 Jonah Keri:
Love him! Speaking of SOM, he was my 1st round pick this offseason. Any time you throw a mid-90s fastball that darts and sinks, you've got a chance.

I do think AL East reality will set in and cause something of a correction. But as a guideline, I like him more than Matusz or anyone else the O's have, long-term.

1:23 [Comment From Big Jgke]
Order of finish in AL east?

1:24 Jonah Keri:
Red Sox
Yankees
Rays
O's
Jays


Jerry Crasnick, ESPN

Jim (Valdosta, Ga)
If the Orioles bullpen holds up they have a legit shot at being over .500, correct?

Jerry Crasnick (1:16 PM)
Jim, I think the bigger question is how Britton, Tillman and the young kids will fare in the rotation. That AL East is a gauntlet, and it's not the easiest place to learn on the job. But the Orioles are now 40-26 under Buck Showalter, I believe, so they've clearly tapped into something good. I can see them finishing at .500, sure. But that might be the ceiling for this season.


Dave Cameron, FanGraphs

12:14 [Comment From Scott]
Matusz or Holland?

12:14 Dave Cameron:
I'm a big Holland fan, but Matusz.

12:18 [Comment From Bucky Show]
Sure, it's early, but when will people realize the O's have potential? Is a wild card really that unrealistic?

12:18 Dave Cameron:
We put them #15 in the Org Rankings, so I'd say that people have been seeing that potential for a while. But yes, a wild card is unrealistic. They're not ready to win 90+ games.


David Schoenfield, ESPN

Jack (DC)
Is the Orioles' Adam Jones going to breakout this season?

David Schoenfield (1:56 PM)
See Jonny Gomes. I don't think so. Jones is still a wild hacker at the plate. No discipline means too many easy outs for pitchers.


Ben Lindbergh, Baseball Prospectus

Tavis Bregel (Covington, KY):
Thanks Ben. Same question, another pitcher, what's the outlook for Zach Britton?

Ben Lindbergh:
Much better than Harrison's. Britton is the real deal. There will be some struggles--he's walked too many batters not to get burned at some point--but he should be fun to watch, and it's hard to imagine that he'll be sent back to Norfolk. If only I could stop calling him "Chris." Old habits die hard.

TGisriel (Baltimore):
How much of a problem is it for the Orioles to lose Matusz and Hardy to the disabled list?

Ben Lindbergh:
Given that Matusz's injury gave the Orioles an excuse to call up Zach Britton, not a huge one. Hardy's was a tough loss, plunging the O's back into the dark days of "Cesar Izturis, starting shortstop," but he'll be back in six weeks or so.

TGisriel (Baltimore):
Buck Showalter has commented recently on the number of third strike foul tips Matt Wieters has caught for a strikeout. He uses it as evidence that Wieters is a superior defensive catcher. Are you aware of any analysis of catchers and third strike foul tips? Does anyone even keep track of them? Are such plays included in ratings of catchers' defense?

Ben Lindbergh:
Hasn't been analyzed or included in any catcher defense ratings, to my knowledge, but it's an interesting question, and one well worth looking into.

Drungo (SoMd):
Chris Tillman: 88 mph buzzkill like Hughes, or kid working on his mechanics and will see his velocity return?

Ben Lindbergh:
To paraphrase Joe Morgan, I haven't seen him pitch this season, so I'll reserve judgement. I read that the velo drop was at least partially an intentional measure to increase control and movement, but I'm skeptical. Progressive velo decline is the norm for pitchers, unfortunately, but big velo drops are usually a cause for concern.


Keith Law, ESPN

Dan (DC)
I know you've advocated giving Tillman 30 starts, but he's been just hard to watch this year. He's throwing straight 88 mph fastballs. It's BP versus the AL East clubs. Do they send him down until they figure out what happened to his velocity, or do they keep throwing him out there and let him learn how to pitch at that speed?

Klaw (2:15 PM)
If a guy's stuff is down, that's another story. I have to question his health, since I have seen him throw harder than that in the past. At 88, with poor command and no sink, he's throwing BP, which means he'd only post a 3.30 ERA in Petco.

Jeff (B-More)
Hultzen or Jungmann to the O's at 4? Which has a higher ceiling/higher floor?

Klaw (2:18 PM)
I think it would go Hultzen, Bradley, Jungmann. That's also how I'd rank them in value, although Bradley has a little more ceiling than Hultzen, who is pretty close to a finished product right now.

John (Lexington, KY)
I'm not sure if your rankings deal specifically this issue, but for the short term (Next two years), do you choose Britton or Pineda?

Klaw (2:38 PM)
Neutral environment, Britton, easily. But he's in the AL East, and Pineda's in Safeco with a great defense behind him.

SportsHui (Seattle)
Weiters HR yesterday off Burnett made him look like everything we've ever hoped for, even for a brief moment. What kind of sample size does it take to convince scouts that a prospect has finally arrived?

Klaw (3:11 PM)
I think the industry never fully gives up on a guy with that kind of pedigree - once a first-rounder, always a first-rounder. And there's an old scouting cliche that catchers develop later, at least offensively, that I can't figure out how to verify, but find useful in situations like this.


Jim Callis, Baseball America

Steve (Baltimore):
To me this makes too much sense not to be considered- O's trade Jake Arrieta to the Yankees for Montero. The Yankees get a desperately needed young pitcher and the O's stick Montero at 1st and have Miguel Cabrera Jr. Moreover, the Yankees are flush with young catchers and the O's seem to have an abundance of young pitchers. Tell me this wouldn't work.

Jim Callis:
Because Montero is significantly more valuable than Arrieta. Montero (as part of a package) almost landed Cliff Lee last summer. The Yankees will use him in that type of a trade rather than for Arrieta. I do like Arrieta, but the Yankees would never make this deal.


Ken Funck, Baseball Prospectus

Rex Little (Big Bear CA):
Travis Snider and Adam Jones are piling disappointing starts on top of disappointing careers. Do you think either or both will turn it around?

Ken Funck:
Well, KG tells me Adam Jones is better than Willie Mays, so he has to turn it around, right? (Of course, that's just his standard intro into how average players today are better conditioned, better trained, etc. -- of course Willie Mays born at the same time as Adam Jones would be better than Adam Jones).

Seriously, though, I fear Adam Jones is turning into Corey Patterson, and I'm losing my optimism about him. Snider is younger and has a better chance of turning things around.


Frankie Piliere, FanGraphs

12:14 [Comment From Matt Wieters]
What's my problem?

12:15 Frankie Piliere:
Inexperience, and that most catchers take more time to develop on the job in the majors. You'll be fine.

This Week in Chat - 4/10/11

Where we distill all the weekly baseball chats down to their Oriole-centric essence...


Jonah Keri, Fangraphs

12:09 [Comment From Omar Little]
So which of the Os starters would you most trust for the whole season -- Guthrie, Britton, Tillman, Matusz?

12:10 Jonah Keri: Is this a fantasy question? Because otherwise, why not trust them all? Guthrie is perennially one of the most underrated pitchers in the game, and all three of the young guys have good upside, of course.

12:10 [Comment From Matt]
Impressive Start from Britton. Do you expect him to stay in the rotation? What stats could he post this year?

12:11 Jonah Keri: Yes, I think he can stick. Adjust all AL East ERAs up .30 to .50, winning pct and others too. On a neutral level, Britton can peak as a 3.50 FIP guy, and maybe get under 4 this year if things break right.

12:37 [Comment From DRS]
I don't want to make to big a deal out of the O's starting 3-0 but they do have some talented young pitchers. What struck me as the most promising aspect of watching them was that their pitchers pounded the strike zone instead of constantly working deep counts and walking batters. Your thoughts on that staff and the O's overall?

12:38 Jonah Keri: As I said before, I like the starting rotation's potential a lot. Still think they struggle to reach .500 this year. But I'd be encouraged about the future. (Would be even more encouraged if/when Adam Jones takes the next step, and Markakis finally hits for power.)

12:39 [Comment From baltfan]
Is Wieters on his way to be becoming the best game-caller/defensive catcher in the major leagues? He had Britton drop his sinker yesterday. Takes guts to have a young kid drop the pitch that got him there because he couldn't control it.

12:39 Jonah Keri: How the hell do we quantify best game-caller? Seriously, I have no idea.

1:52 [Comment From Robert]
Could Chris Tillman be a future ace? Do you like him or Britton over the long term?

1:52 Jonah Keri: Britton's track record suggest better command, a lot more GB. Could even see Britton being best of the whole bunch.


Steven Goldman, Baseball Prospectus

Charlie (Bethesda, MD): So who you got in the ALDS - the O's or the Royals?

Steven Goldman: Much as with rumors of Boston's demise, the rise of the O's and Royals are much exaggerated. Still, it is heartening to see the Orioles experiencing a little success for once. Sure, it's fun to mock a perpetual loser, but much more fun to see good teams throughout the league playing each other. As for the Royals, see my answer to the first question, but in reverse: some 100-game losers win a few on their way down the standings.

kcroyalsguy (outside): Do you think Jake Fox will get 300+ at bats this year or has his ship already sailed so to speak?

Steven Goldman: Well, it would be nicer if he got his first at-bat before we project him for 300. He might get a few at-bats around the inevitable Derrek Lee DL stint. I don't know that it would be a good thing anyway, given the 10 walks he would draw against those 300 ABs.

TGisriel (Baltimore): As Baltimore rejoices in the Orioles 4-0 start, I am (surprisingly) not hearing many claims that this team will "go all the way". The talk is about having a competitive winning (.500 or above) team that is fun to watch, which I think is a realistic goal for this team. Your thoughts on the Orioles?

Steven Goldman: It has been too many years of suckage for anyone to jump on the bandwagon that quickly. I'm still looking for 81-81, though the way pitchers are dropping (Guthrie, Matusz) that may be increasingly difficult despite the start. And then there's positional depth. There aren't any great players standing behind the starting lineup, so if the oldsters get hit by injuries, look out.

Gisriel (Baltimore): My theory is that the Orioles trade either or both Guerrero and/or Lee at the deadline, move Scott to DH or 1B, and bring up Reimold to play LF. Pie remains the 4th outfielder.

Steven Goldman: I'm not sure how much faith there should be in Reimold at this point...



Dave Cameron, FanGraphs


12:00 [Comment From bill]
which team gets the most wins this year: orioles, pirates, diamondbacks, nationals?

12:00 Dave Cameron: I'll take the Orioles. #15org off to a pretty good start so far.


12:07 [Comment From Oscar]
Will you commit to eating your own keyboard if the Orioles make the playoffs this season?

12:07 Dave Cameron: I just upgraded to a Mac last week, so no, that'd be a really expensive keyboard to eat.


12:19 [Comment From Jason]
RE: The AL East. Last year there were 4 teams with records above .500 against the AL East as a whole. All 4 of those teams were from the AL East. So yah...

12:20 Dave Cameron: All five of those teams would be playoff contenders in any other division in baseball.

12:31 [Comment From The Dude]
Give me your three most under-rated outfielders.

12:32 Dave Cameron: Anyone in the Randy Winn family of good defensive players who man a corner instead of center field and have gap power. These no-plus-tool guys usually get labeled as tweeners or fourth outfielders, but several of them are well above average regulars.

12:54 [Comment From TK]
bigger effect on AGonz HR total in 2011, home park or lineup?

12:54 Dave Cameron: Park, by a lot. There's little to no evidence for the protection theory.


David Schoenfield, ESPN

Zack (Baltimore)
How long do we wait to being adjusting expectations of our O's? Baseball success is built on pitching, and so far 4 games, 4 quality starts.

David Schoenfield (1:10 PM)
As much as I want to jump on the Baltimore bandwagon, four games is four games. Can't overreact yet. The Orioles had seven winning streak of four games last season and still lost 96 games.

Matt (New Jersey)
David, many people got on the Orioles for signing the free agents they did, and I don't necessarily disagree with some of thoughts. But, and I know this can't be quantified (Neyer word), is there something to having veterans around that provide some sort of blanket for the young pups on the roster? Throwing out a young team for the sake of playing time while watching them get beaten up, especially in the East...I don't know. As a former athlete I always found confidence in looking to some older guys and their presence (granted you are counting on them to actually produce to instill confidence). Just rambling...thanks for chatting.

David Schoenfield (1:50 PM)
Good post. I did like the signings and I do think there is at least a *little* something to veteran presence. Now, the vets have to produce, because ultimately it's all about production. But maybe it does help a young guy like Adam Jones, since he doesn't have to think he has to be the big RBI guy and maybe he swings for the fences as much. He can focus on getting on base more and hitting line drives.

Keith Law, ESPN

Brian (MD)
If you were the Orioles sitting with the fourth pick and Francisco Lindor was your top rated prospect would you still take him even though you just drafted Machado last season?

Klaw (1:38 PM)
Yes. Best player available. That said, he won't be the best guy available, IMO. (Actually, one name I forgot for Washington who'd also fit here is Dylan Bundy.)

Raymond (Baltimore)
KLAW, as an Orioles, I do believe that after a week you cannot really change the way that you perceive any team. But my question is WHEN is it accurate to start to legitimately believe in a team? I kind of go back to the Rays (or Padres last year) where it seemed like into September (or November for Tampa) people were still waiting for the shoe to fall off. Now Personally, I think the O's will win 77 games, and hope they trade Vlad and Derrick Lee this summer to get more prospects, and give Tillman 30 starts.

Klaw (1:40 PM)
Well, the shoe did fall off for San Diego in September, right? Tampa Bay shouldn't have surprised anyone, though. To your question, for a team massively out- or under-performing expectations I'd like to see at least 50 games, and even then I'd be uncomfortable making a grand statement.

Amos (New York)
Can you name a guy or two you haven't given up on, even after a decent sample of serious non-performance in the bigs? (Someone like Weeks doesn't count, someone like Milledge or Gordon does.)

Klaw (1:56 PM)
Does Tillman count? Chris Iannetta? Howie Kendrick? I'm not sure what your standard is. I still like guys like Matt Wieters and Gordon Beckham, but have they non-performed enough?

Cliff B (Chicago, IL)
I heard you on All Night w/ Jason Smith the other night. He was trying to tell you what a good signing Vlad Guerrero was for the O's because of his runs and RBI's last year. You quickly corrected him that those stats mean nothing and he laughed it off. After you went off the air, he continued to say how RBI and runs are the most important stats and that "OPS and all the other stuff, blah." Are so few ESPN people knowledgeable about statistical analysis?

Klaw (2:06 PM)
I think we have a lot of folks here who are aware of statistical analysis. Jason clings to his discredited stats for some reason I don't quite get.

Frankie Piliere, FanGraphs


12:44 [Comment From Orioles]
In order: Britton, Matusz, Arrieta, Tillman. Did I get that right? Can all these guys be valuable SP on a contending team?

12:45 Frankie Piliere: I think you nailed it. I have my doubts on Tillman but he's still got a lot of potential.

1:11 [Comment From Orioles Scouts]
How big an addition is Ron Hopkins to the O's scouting team?

1:11 Frankie Piliere: As a big a scouting move as you can make. He's excellent.

1:27 [Comment From Aman Reaka @bkmhoxx]
Scouting question. What makes a scout like Ron Hopkins so good? Other than experience, why are some scouts "good" and some arent? Other than the obvious answer of "results".

1:29 Frankie Piliere: Certain guys you can judge on results, but lower level guys you can't because they don't make the decisions. Hopkins has made good decisions. But, once you see these guys you get to know who the most diligent ones are, the most open minded, and how they are using past experiences to make judgments. Being a scout 20 years on its own doesn't make a good scout. It makes a world of difference if you are still open minded and use all those experiences though.

Jayson Stark, ESPN

Mitch (North Carolina)
Do you think the Orioles will end up with 85 wins or more this year?

Jayson Stark (1:09 PM)
I would have gone lower a week ago. I know that. I was thinking .500 would be a great year for that team coming out of spring training. Now I guess, my question is: Should I ever bet against Buck Showalter. They're 39-24 since he got there. They were the '62 Mets before he got there. He's David Copperfield, this guy. But I still think 85 is a little too high.

Jack (DC)
Can the Orioles be this season's Giants, Padres or Rays? Buck for the Hall of Fame if he turns this ship around this year, right?

Jayson Stark (1:13 PM)
Boy, lots of Orioles questions today. Orioles fans live! I like them. I just don't see them as a 90-win kind of team. I don't see where they have pitching in the same class as those three teams you named, despite how they've pitched so far. And in the AL East, that's going to be the big separator.