Showing posts with label PrOPS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label PrOPS. Show all posts

Friday, July 10, 2009

Base Hits: 7/10/2009

BJ Ryan revisited.

First, Steve DeClue at the Examiner suggests that the Orioles should bring Ryan back into the fold.

Ryan has struggled to stay healthy and effective with the Blue Jays ever since undergoing Tommy John surgery, but he would be a logical claim for the Orioles.

I'm assuming that he used the word "claim" in error because if the Orioles "claimed" Ryan off of waivers, they would be responsible for the $15 million due to him over the next two seasons. And that would be retarded.

Look, the contract Toronto gave Ryan was crazy, it was a bad move and everyone knew it when it happened. Outside of signing Ryan to a minor league deal to see if he can round himself back into shape, I can't imagine Ryan helping this club in the least.

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A few interesting mid-season PrOPS numbers:


OPS PrOPS
Scott .975 .975
Reimold .801 .843
Jones .856 .813
Huff .758 .796
Wigginton .693 .754
Markakis .791 .752
Pie .654 .704
Izturis .620 .694




Luke Scott matches his PrOPS and OPS exactly, something that rarely happens. Reimold, Huff and Wigginton have swung the bat better than the numbers show so far. Pie too, although in far fewer at bats.

Markakis is underperforming on the field and PrOPS show that he was lucky to reach even those diminished numbers. I picked Nick for a breakout season in 2009 but he's going to have to have a hell of a second half to reach the heights I predicted.

Cesar Izturis: if he can even approach a .700 OPS as PrOPS suggests, he'll be a fine boost to the offense in the second half.

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Who is Eddie Gamboa? Find out in this article.

This season Gamboa went 6-0 with a 1.80 ERA as a reliever in Delmarva and in 8 innings pitched in Frederick, he has a 0.00 ERA and 6 strikeouts to one walk. It's guys like this that make your farm system viable and prevents you from having to go out and, I don't know, spend $42 million on relief pitchers some offseason.

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Lee County, Florida and the Orioles continue to negotiate to bring Baltimore to Fort Myers for Spring Training.

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I found this gem in a Peter Gammons column about international baseball signings:

The Orioles, for instance, selected pitcher Matt Hobgood with the fifth overall pick because he'd sign for slot. The Reds at seven and Braves at eight passed on North Carolina pitcher Alex White because he wouldn't sign for the commissioner's office figure. But the Orioles may go for Dominican shortstop Miguel Sano for more than $3.5 million; Hobgood got $2.4 million. Go figure.

As much as it pains me to say this, that is just lazy reporting. Lazy.

Matt Hobgood was not strictly a signability pick. High school pitcher Zack Wheeler was still on the board (he went to the Giants with the very next pick) and he was highly touted and said to be an easy sign. There were certainly other options if the O's just wanted to go cheap. And, by the way, no analyst ripped Baltimore for the Hobgood pick. Most analysts saw it as a reasonable pick at that spot.

In 2008, Baltimore signed LHP Brian Matusz and gave him a $3.2 million singing bonus and a major league contract. In 2007, the O's signed Matt Wieters for a $6 million signing bonus. They do not have a pattern for going cheap or selecting inferior talent to save cash under the current leadership.

Anyway, the whole point of this article is to bemoan the exorbitant spending in South America on prospects (I guess it's not a good

Alderson and a committee of general managers should propose a system that would cap total spending for amateur and international signings. They need to allow bad teams to get the best players. They ought to allow teams to decide whether they want to spend in the draft or internationally.

Or...you could just add all the international players in the amateur draft. Seems pretty simple to me.

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Another interesting prospect, Ryohei Tanaka, began AA in relief but has now started two games and finally gave up his first run of the season. He's a bit wild as a starter but in 22 innings, only the lone run surrendered, 18 strikeouts and 7 walks.

Thursday, May 8, 2008

Giving the O's Some PrOPS...and Reavealing the Real Problem With This Team

Last week I wrote a post about Ramon Hernandez and how he is hitting better than his Mendoza-esque batting average would indicate.

It looks like it's catching.



Actual Batting Line PrOPS Batting Line
Roberts .263/.353/.421 .288/.374/.432
Mora .257/.306/.412 .284/.330/.441
Markakis .270/.395/.451 .290/.409/.510
Millar .224/.315/.344 .274/.358/.438
Huff .266/.341/.452 .265/.337/.450
Scott .286/.366/.418 .252/.337/.353
Jones .231/.272/.359 .250/.291/.370
R.Hernandez .202/.234/.364 .302/.330/.465
L.Hernandez .243/.304/.257 .276/.336/.340




So far, only Aubrey Huff is hitting about what he should be hitting based on the batted ball data. Adam Jones is close but he should have slightly better results at this point.

Luke Scott is the only player who seems to be destined for a correction down. Indeed, that may be what this slump Luke's been in actually is, a correction to the kind of numbers he will actually put up.

Everyone else is underperforming their PrOPS scores. It can't last. There is going to be some upswing in the offense barring an injury. Again, look for Ramon Hernandez, Kevin Millar, Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis to come out of this funk pretty soon with modest increases from Melvin Mora and Luis Hernandez. (Of course, you could replace Luis and spell Mora with Scott Moore every so often and goose the numbers up that way...)

The offense is not great but it is not as bereft as it looks right now. Dave Trembley needs to leave these guys in the lineup and it will work itself out.

Their baserunning on the other hand...I haven't found statistical evidence of this but there can't possibly be another team in the majors who has been picked off, thrown out stealing or thrown out trying to take an extra base more than the Baltimore Orioles.

More than hitting, fans should be concerned about the fielding on this team. Brian Roberts is near the bottom in the league for fielding by a second baseman. Ditto for Luis Hernandez. Melvin More has been OK. Millar has been bad. Ramon has been passable behind the plate but leads the league with 4 throwing errors. (The outfield defense, in fairness, is pretty good across the board.)

The Orioles are going to play a lot of close games this year so the team needs to find solutions to it's defensive woes (especially up the middle) if it hopes to be respectable.

Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Ramon Hernandez Is Actually Awesome (and other collected tidbits...)

I was going to write a post about everythig that is wrong with Ramon Hernandez in 2008, speculate that he's injured or getting old and ultimately was going to recommend that Guillermo Quiroz get a few more starts in his place.


Then something funny happened as I looked closer at Razor Ramon. I found out that he is having one hell of an April.

This is hardly the descriptor one would use for a player sporting a batting line (AVG/OPB/SLG) of .208/.247/.416. I have noted that Hernandez has made the most of his hits by coming through in the clutch and is among the team leaders in RBI but in general, I thought he was having a really poor start.

However, as I was digging around I looked at the line drive percentage (LD%) of the Oriole batters and saw Ramon leading them all. How was this possible? It's possible because Hernandez has been smoking the ball all season and been hitting them right at the opposition. In other words, he's just been incredibly unlucky.

Hernandez has had a Batting Average on Ball in Play (BABIP) of .191 so far. Generally, a batter can expect his BABIP to be about his LD% plus .12. Adam Jones, for example, has a LD% of 21.4% (.214). Add .12 and you get an estimated BABIP of .324. His actual BABIP is .329.

Ramon's LD% is 25.4% (.254). Adding .12, his BABIP should be .374, nearly doubling the actual .191 he sports now.

There's more. JC Bradbury created a stat several years ago called Projected OPS (PrOPS) which creates a batting line based on peripheral batted ball data like percentage of line drives, home runs, ground balls, etc. According to PrOPS, Ramon Hernandez batting line should be something like this: .314/.348./.506 for an OPS of .855. That number would put him in the top 25 in the AL and he would be far and away the best hitting catcher in the league.

Ramon Hernandez is blistering the ball and it's only a matter of time before things start to go his way. Look for great things from Ramon in May (assuming good health) and if you have a fantasy team, consider stashing him on your bench.

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While we're talking about PrOPS, expect Kevin Millar (OPS .671) to also get appreciably better (PrOPS .804).
Expect "Spanky" Huff (OPS .814) to get a lot worse in the short term. Huff sports the fourth worst LD% of any regular in the AL (9.7%) so that batting average should be falling precipitously any week now.

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Most defensive metrics point to the 2008 Orioles fielders as just average this year. But their Defensive Efficiency Ratio (DER) is a league leading .732. That means that the fielders and pitchers are working together to become a sum greater than the parts and converting 73% of balls in play to outs. That kind of run prevention can take a team a long way.

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O-Swing% - The percentage of times a player swings at balls outside of the strike zone. Nick Markakis ranks 6th in baseball behind such "good eyes" like Frank Thomas, Albert Pujols and Pat Burrell. Nick only swings at bad pitches 12.04% of the time and the only other player in their early 20's who is even in the ballpark with Markakis is A's first baseman Daric Barton (12.95%). That's incredibly impressive for a player starting their third full season in the majors.

As you might imagine, Adam Jones swings at the most bad pitches (28.39%) and is swinging away at a team-leading 52.95% of all pitches total.

Brian Roberts makes contact 90.11% of the time he swings away, including a Vlad Guerrero-like 78.05% on balls outside of the strike zone. Amazing bat control.

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It's been awhile since I've harped on John Maine, a pitcher I hate through no fault of his own. Maine is 2-2 with a 3.58 ERA so far this season for the Mets but his WHIP is 1.55 and his FIP stands at 4.71. You don't win for long putting that many people on base, especially when you are a flyball pitcher.

After the All-Star break last season, Maine went 5-6 with a 5.53 ERA contributing mightily to the Mets collapse down the stretch. Look for his first half number to approach these pretty soon, he's heading for a fall.