WNST: Math is Hard

OK, so I guess I was the WNST "Oriole Apologist of the Day" on Monday. Let's see what Glenn Clark had to say about it:

Congratulations to our “Apologist of the Morning”, as selected by “The Great Arbitrator” Drew Forrester. “Heath” from Dempsey’s Army is no stranger to the AOTM-but this morning he received the award for citing Fangraphs in opining that Juan Samuel was wrong for trying to have Matt Wieters bunt last week. I don’t often credit Drew for being funny, but labeling a group of people as “Fangraph-sexuals” was pretty damn humorous.

Normally, I wouldn't mention this at all but I had to address a couple of things.
 
I use stats in a lot of my posts. This is not a purely analytic baseball but I am literate in advanced baseball stats and use them when warranted. I try not to overwhelm with every new stat that comes down the pike but I will incorporate newer stats that I feel are relevant. For example, I am starting to work in wOBA into the mix while still using OPS and "slash lines" as points of reference.
 
Thus, you're going to find stats on many of my posts on this site. They are not scary. And if you are interested in learning more about them, they are readily available from BaseballReference.com, MinorLeagueSplits.com, MiLB.com and, yes, FanGraphs.com. And I think that while stats do not tell the whole story, they tell you a lot and, these days, they tell you more than they ever have before.
 
I did not hear Drew's show so I have to address Glenn's summation; Fangraphs.com is the leading source for advanced baseball statistics anywhere. I write a blog about a baseball team. I am never going to apologize for using the best sources of baseball knowledge when formulating my posts. I am also not going to bother defending "sabermetrics" and their validity in baseball analysis. That would be redundant. And if Drew wants to make unfunny, thinly-veiled homophobic references to try to discredit "sabermetrics" or readers of FanGraphs.com, well, that's pretty much par for the course.
 
But the supreme irony is this; on the same morning I was reportedly mocked for utilizing a site that provides advanced baseball statistics, Drew had Joe Sheehan on to talk baseball. You know, the Joe Sheehan from Baseball Prospectus! A guy whose columns on BP routinely contained references to EqA, VOPR, EQR, SNLVAR and PECOTA projections, stats far less known to baseball fans because you can't access them without a subscription! Really? The very same morning you paint me as a flouncy stat dweeb you have one of the founders of Baseball Prospectus on your show?
 
So Drew either has no self-awareness whatsoever or is disingenuous beyond words. I'll go with the latter. (Drew/Glenn: "Latter" means the last thing I said...)
 
But while we're at it, I wanted to address a couple things from this...
 
On the Oriole blogs:
 
I read them all - casually - just about every day, and I’m amazed at how transparent most of them are these days. They’re nothing more than a cheerleading forum. Rah, rah, rah. And on the outside chance something happens that deserves an unquestionable volley of criticism, most of the bloggers throw the word “but” in there about 15 times. ”I’ll point out the wrong…but I have to follow it up with something else that takes the team off the hook a little bit.”
Right. God forbid you write ONE piece where you actually take the team to task for something and then leave it at that.

Well, that shows that you DON"T really read the blogs on a regular basis. There are plenty of critical posts on a lot of the Oriole blogs. Especially on Camden Chat, the one Drew claims to read the most. Now, perhaps they are not 100% negative ALL the time (some other media outlet has cornered the market on that), but there is a fair amount of criticism in the Oriole blogosphere but it contains two things absent at WNST; nuance and a sense of perspective. Oh, and no froth from the mouth. It's no wonder they don't understand it.

Back to my blog yesterday that I wrote at WNST.net concerning Free The Birds.
 Here, for your review, is the front page of Camden Chat from Tuesday, May 11. You’ll notice 16 different topics or stories under “Bird Droppings”. Heck, there’s even info in there about John Smoltz trying to qualify for the U.S. Open golf championship. That’s interesting...

What DON’T you notice?

Yep. My blog from Monday about Free The Birds is nowhere to be found...
However…Tuesday rolls around and the powers-that-be (and frankly, I don’t know who makes the front-page decisions and never asked Stacey) list 16 different stories about the baseball team but none of them were worthy of being replaced by my piece on Free The Birds.
And that’s what you get when you deal with bloggers. Afraid to let “the other side” have their say. Because if you do that - some folks who read the piece might even think, “hmmm…that’s a valid point or two.”

WAAAAAHHHHHH!!!! They didn't like to my post! Wah, wah wah...

Honestly? You can't possibly be that thin-skinned.

I write several posts a week. If I'm lucky, I may get a link from Camden Chat once every couple of weeks. But that's OK. Why? Because if my post is worth linking to, by definition, someone will link to it. I'm not sure how or why anyone would feel slighted if Camden Chat or any of the other blogs linked to them or not. It's hardly personal.

But WNST made it personal when they accused Stacey and crew of excluding them because they didn't want Drew ("the other side") to have his say. It's infantile and insulting.

I don't know why Stacy no longer appears on WNST but I would imagine it has less to do with their viewpoints and more to do with the fact that they are colossal babies.

When the guy at WNST.net who “doesn’t like the team” writes a piece and beats them up for their stupid tickets and media relations policies, that doesn’t get linked or posted at Camden Chat or ANY OTHER SITE IN TOWN (of course).

Again, Drew obviously doesn't regularly read the blogs. WNST is and has been linked to by several blogs. Even with all the barbs I've thrown at WNST and Nestor over the years, I have linked to his stories and opinions that I actually agree with.

So I guess I have nothing else to say except that I wear their scorn as a badge of honor.

OK, resume party....

The Return of Nestor

Nestor quit blogging there for awhile and even on the odd occasion when he did, the frothing, mindless spewing seemed to have been tabled. I would love to think I had just a little bit to do with that (hell, somebody is reading this) but I figure he just ran out of bile. No spewing from Nestor in his blog post last week concerning "Free The Birds 2" but a couple inconsistencies I would like to highlight:


Dear BALTIMORE Orioles fan:


The time for FREE THE BIRDS 2 has come…


Today, I am reaching out to you to see if you’re still interested in another massive event…If YOU are in, I'M IN! If not, we'll move on...


I have gone on record before saying that the declining attendence figures, half-empty stadiums and general disinterest of the fan base does far more to force Peter Angelos' hand than any staged protest (especially one where people put money in the owner's pockets in the process). The cynic in me also finds it to be a bit of publicity stunt for WNST and a cheap way to get national press. But fine, I'll take it on the face that Nestor wants the team to improve just like the rest of us. This is not what is bothering me today...


Sure, they’ve won a few games over the last month and the new manager seems to be an improvement, but has there been ANY signal that this franchise and this ownership group has “changed its stripes” in regard to how it treats the fans and the city of Baltimore?


Yeah, they've won a few. 15 in July. Winning at a .600 clip. Baltimore hasn't had a month like that since April of 2005. The franchise owes this to the fans; to field a winner. This last month has been a "signal" that maybe they are trying to do the right thing by fans. Just win baby.


We want our memories back and we want our good times at Orioles games back.


Ah, memories. Trading Eddie Murray away for peanuts. Trading Mickey Tettleton away for Jeff Robinson. Trading away Curt Schilling, Pete Harnisch and Steve Finley for Glen Davis. Starting seasons 0-21. Man, those were good times.


This franchise has not been a consistent contender for 24 years. The glory days were from 1964-1983; 20 years of contention. The most we have seen in the last 24 years is fleeting flashes of hope. I'm not pining for the old days, I'm hoping for something new now.


We do not want to stage an “empty” walkout, like those poor people in Pittsburgh.


OK, this is the part I don't understand. You would think Nestor would feel some comraderie with the Pittsburgh fans and cheer their efforts. Instead, he derides them (and this isn't the first time). Why is it empty? According to reports (AP, Pittsburgh Post Gazette) out of Pittsburgh, they had around 1000 people involved in the walkout. According to reports (AP, MLB) out of Baltimore, there were about 1000 people involved in Free The Birds last year. They were very similar in scope and focus. C'mon Nestor, share the love!


We had more than 2,000 people last September – anything less would be an embarrassment, so why bother?


See above. You didn't have that many people...


This is NOT a publicity “stunt” in ANY WAY!


Hmmm. OK. Don't you get suspicious of posts with big capital letters? Why is he protesting so vehemently?


If enough people are truly interested, we will organize it. If not, we’ll anxiously await the start of the Ravens season.


You can wait for the Ravens, Nestor. I'll be over here watching the O's take a shot at their first winning season in 9 years.

Nestor and Angelos: Like Looking in the Mirror

Something Nestor said yesterday morning on WNST got me thinking about how he fired Terry and Jeremy this past fall and comments about how the O's treated Sam Perlozzo.



First, Nestor's comments from earlier this week:



...this is just three hours after they had him walking around town this morning looking and sounding like a fool, a dead man walking who was still under the belief that he wasn't getting fired as far as he knew!



That was the wrong thing to do in Nestor's opinion. This was how Nestor treated his former morning team:



Terry Ford and Jeremy Conn much to their surprise were fired. Somewhere just before 9AM the entire morning crew was asked to leave the building and not long after their return, the profiles and email addresses of Ford and Conn were wiped from WNST’s database and website and severance checks awaited them. Only Drew Forrester was left standing.



Hmmm. Guess these guys have more in common than we ever knew...
(photo from WNST.net...)

Nestor Aparicio: Raving Lunatic

Sit back and enjoy more from the frothing carnival barker:

Because I believe in presenting BOTH sides of the story...

Good one.

Only time will tell...but the track record of "momentous" days like today where Peter Schmuck believes whatever the Orioles tell him and writes fluffy, flowery pieces of wishful fiction...are too many to name.

This is a common Nestor tactic. Anyone who works for The Baltimore Sun or WHFS is automatically discredited, they are brainwashed lapdogs, pawns of the evil Angelos Empire. WNST is the only true source for O's information. Remember the away jersey story? Complete truth, that one. No axes to grind here, no sir.

Blah, blah, blah...every time there's a "new" addition people like Schmuck are out selling the discounted orange Kool-Aid!

See? Jim Jones reference with that one. Classic.

I'm trying to figure out what makes Andy McPhail more important or significant than Jon Miller, Pat Gillick, Brooks Robinson, Cal Ripken or anyone ELSE who won't work for Peter Angelos?

Let me help you "figure" this out because three out of four of these are easy.

Andy McPhail is more important than:

Jon Miller because: Jon Miller did not pick players or coaches. He talked about the game while people played and did it very well but his Vin Scully impression never once created a run for the Baltimore Orioles nor prevented the opposing team from scoring one. Nor did his witty repartee ever lure a free agent or select good players in the draft. That was easy. What's next?

Brooks Robinson because: Brooks was a Hall of Fame baseball player but is now, like, 137 years old. I don't think he can hold down third base for us anymore. And since he has repeatedly stated that he does not want to be a coach or manager, I would say that he can't help the team by playing, hiring good players or coaching them to wins. Next!

Cal Ripken because: Cal wants to own the team. He does not want to coach. He does not want to pick players. He does not want to play again. He wants to run the whole show. So until Angelos decides to sell the team, Cal cannot help us. But McPhail may be able to. Wow. Easy stuff. Next!

Pat Gillick because: Pat Gillick was a really bad GM. Wow, that was easier than I thought. Look here at the 1998 draft. Brutally bad. it took him 10-15 years to build a winner in Toronto. Then he screwed up Baltimore, went on the decimate the Mariners and is now mismanaging the Phillies.

There you go Nestor. Please continue in clarity.

If you ask me, all Peter has done today is found a new lap dog, another "unemployed" baseball executive who wanted a job and has "delusions of grandeur."

He won't back up his assertions here but he has managed to discredit a man who has been on the job two days as a "lapdog". (He just loves that word...) If John McGraw returned form the dead and agreed to manage the Orioles, Nestor would dismiss him as a lapdog. If Sparky Anderson returned (he's still alive) and agreed to manage the Orioles, Nestor would dismiss him as a lapdog. If Jesus Christ returned from the grave and agreed to manage the Orioles, Nestor would dismiss him as a lapdog.

(And as long as I'm defecating on Schmuck, how many times is HE going to buy their rubbish before he starts feeling foolish himself? I know I stopped buying it right around 1998, because I SAW what was going on around the franchise from the inside!)

Do you know who defecates on other people? Babies, the mentally deficient and the insane. Nestor qualifies as at least two out of three so I'll allow the foul comment. Continue.

I HOPE McPhail is not a flunky, but the evidence on Day One is pretty damning! I ain't holding my breath, if you know what I mean!

Scan the post all ye sane and reasoning people. There is not one bit of evidence presented. It's all in his head. Obviously, he forgot to write the evidence part. But it's damning. Really, really damning. If you know what I mean.

Who knows? Maybe if I "suck up" to Andy McPhail, I'll get my press pass back so I can do my job...LOL!!! Especially, since now it's Mr. McPhail's decision, since he's "running the organization."

Nestor, I supported you in your quest for press credentials even though I knew you were an assclown but it's time to let it go and live in the now. Now take your medicine.

P.S. Today he writes an open letter to McPhail (the man he referred to as a lapdog in yesterday's rant) and whines about his press pass again. He requests that it be ready by Tuesday of next week and that if it's not, he'll "just assume that you're the latest liar to take Peter's money." Hey, that's logical. Or maybe he has more important things to do like hiring a manager and assessing the farm system. Or maybe he just realizes you're an assclown. Why does McPhail get so much shrapnel? He just got here on Tuesday...

More Nestor Today...

From Nestor's latest blog entry:

"The list is too long, but start with Doug Melvin and Jon Miller and move forward...pick ANYONE who has worked in this organization."

Really, Nestor. Stop the Doug Melvin rap. See my post two entries down. Melvin sucked here, sucked in Texas. He is poor at his job. There are far better examples to use...

"We at WNST deal with former players ALL THE TIME, who come to town and tell our reporters what a nightmare it was to play here and work for Mr. Angelos. Casey has former players come up to him at literally EVERY homestand, talking to him about what a mess this place was and how happy they were to leave Baltimore!"

Name one. I dare you. Name just one player who said these things and I will take these claims as credible. Otherwise, they are fabrications, like 'NST's "Jerseygate" stories. Unfounded.

Nestor also goes on a long rant about how people should not be motivated by money and if Joe Girardi can only be lured here by $2 million a year then he is not the right man for the job.

But Nestor, if this is such a bad job, why would anyone of quality come here without being well compensated? You can't have it both ways.

Base Hits: 4/20/2007

Leonard Shapiro has an article on WNST and the Orioles brass denying Nestor Aparicio press credentials.

I've made it pretty clear that I think Nestor's late-season walkout last year was pretty pointless and accomplished little more than garnering WNST some publicity. I never heard Nestor's radio show but his blog posts are rambling and sometimes incoherent and always self-promoting. He's a P.T. Barnum for sports radio and he's a clown in his own circus.

But he is a journalist. And the Baltimore Orioles denying him press credentials cannot be defended.



Over at The Hardball Times, John Brattain takes a look at his Blue Jays on the day they start their three game series in Baltimore and says "Don't Panic!" Strangely, he mentions the Yankees and Red Sox as Toronto's competition and neglects to mention the hottest team in the AL. Who could that be? Hmmmm....



I did a "Where are they now?" post about the 2000 Baltimore Orioles draftees and wasn't sure exactly what happened to top pick Beau Hale. The Baltimore Examiner goes into greater detail about the current Baysox pitcher.



Keith Law from ESPN rarely has anything nice to say about the Orioles and he continues his trend in yesterday's chat session:

Syracuse, NY: Can the Orioles remain in contention this season or is their success so far just a premonition?

Keith Law: I don't think they have the offense, and although their pen has performed well, I don't think that will hold up across the board.

Although I don't agree with the assessment of the offense, they certainly haven't done enough to instill confidence that they will deliver on their promise. But the bullpen? The only thing you can say is that they won't keep it up because up until now they have exceeded expectations. So why won't they keep it up Keith? Knee-jerk reaction perhaps? Nice analysis.

Matt (Springfield, MO): Is Loewen going to get his "stuff" together? Is he any good?

Keith Law: His stuff is only OK, and his control has never been good. I think that the "real" Adam Loewen was left on the operating table when he tore his labrum in '04.

Wow, how cheery. How do we know he left his "stuff" on the operating table? Reduced velocity? Law never explains. Loewen struck out nearly 8 per 9 last year and his control has been average for a young power pitcher. Scott Kazmir walked more than 5 per 9 over his first 39 major league starts and he is regarded as one of the bright young stars in the AL. Soon, Adam Loewen will be too.