Baltimore Orioles Acquire Kevin Millwood, Send Chris Ray to Texas

It looks like all the smoke around a Kevin Millwood deal were indeed signs of fire as the Orioles will reportedly send RP Chris Ray to the Rangers for Millwood and cash considerations.

I am not a fan of Millwood the Baltimore Oriole...but considering who the Orioles are giving up and that cash is coming back to offset the $12 million that Millwood is due in 2010.

Now, the stark realities of Kevin Millwood. Only a 5.6 K/9 rate versus a 3.3 BB/9 in 2009 for a measly 1.73 K/BB ratio. He's a flyball pitcher coming to Camden Yards. His BABIP was .279 last season, by far his lowest rate since 1999. He appears to have been extremely lucky to post a 3.67 ERA last season. He could be an absolute disaster for Baltimore.

There is hope here however. Over the last three seasons, Millwood has an average ERA+ of 99, pitched an average of 180 innings and is good for two complete games a season. I know this is what Andy MacPhail thinks; Millwood is a league average pitcher who has pitched in a hitter's park and can eat innings and provide stability in the rotation...and hey, maybe we get lucky and he's even better than that. Bill James does project him to post a 4.37 ERA (slightly better than league average) over 175 innings.

The Rangers will reportedly pick up a quarter of Millwood's $12 million salary. For $9 million over one season, he is a calculated risk but not a crazy one.

The Orioles send former closer Chris Ray to Texas. As much as I hate to say it, this is no great loss. Ray is damaged goods at this point and showed absolutely nothing to lead one to believe that he will ever be an effective major league pitcher again. The Oriole bullpen needs an overhaul and it's probably time for someone else to deal with Ray.

In general, when you can trade a reliever for a starter I am all for it. I am tepid about Millwood as a good fit for the Orioles though. But for one year, even a colossal disaster will be over with quickly. All things considered, it's a good move and a good idea.

Winter Meetings Wrap-up

As the Winter Meetings come to a close, the Oriole roster remains the same as it was when the meetings started on Monday. That doesn't mean things aren't in the works though.

Erik Bedard

According to the Nashville Confidential blog on MLB.com:

...pitching is still at a premium...It's why the Orioles, who are listening to offers for Erik Bedard, have had inquiries from no fewer than 11 teams regarding the sensational left-hander.

That number of teams showing interest is pretty encouraging that something will get done and the Baltimore will get pretty good value for Bedard. The rumored offers so far:

Dodgers: OF Matt Kemp and RP Jonathan Broxton
Mariners: OF Adam Jones and other various prospects
Mets: OF Carlos Gomez, RP Aaron Heilman and SP Philip Humber

As I've said before, I love the Dodger offer. Matt Kemp can take over in left immediately and Broxton has closer type stuff. Now that LA has signed Andruw Jones, they have too many outfielders.

Adam Jones is a centerfielder with some pop and is intriguing as well. The Mets offer is not good enough in my opinion.

Miguel Tejada

Not much talk about Tejada although now that Miguel Cabrera is in Detroit you would expect teams with 3B needs will start to put together some offers. Obviously, it will take much less to pry Tejada away.

Brian Roberts

A surprise addition to the rumor mill, Brain Roberts is evidently highly valued by the Cubs. Early reports had two pitchers (Rich Hill among them) and OF Matt Murton heading to Charm City but the subsequent reports seem to indicate Chicago is not willing to give up Hill.

The only other news to come out today in that OF Jay Gibbons has been suspended for 15 days for violating the drug policy. It's an old story and a non-story. The only surprise to me is that the suspension is so short.

More analysis of the Rule V draft later...

Winter Meetings Part II

This on the Winter Meetings from Peter Schmuck earlier this week:

I've heard the argument that Bedard will be worth just as much or more in July as he's worth now, which might be true if you could guarantee he'll be healthy and productive at midseason. I've also heard how the Orioles have to be extra cautious because they only have so many tradable players and can't afford to make a mistake.Of course, it's that kind of thinking that has made them one of baseball's most timid teams at trade time since the Glenn Davis disaster of the early 1990s.

The Glen Davis trade set the O's back at least 5 years when they made it. They gave up Pete Harnisch, Curt Schilling and Steve Finley for that guy. Think about it. I'd be timid too after that. Or at least a little cautious.

If they hang on to Bedard without signing him long term, they become vulnerable not only to another injury but also to the possibility that he could make it difficult to complete a deal next year by telegraphing a firm intention to enter the free-agent market after the 2009 season. If you think he's above that sort of thing, you haven't met him.

The Orioles would be vulnerable to an injury whether they sign him or not. Look, I agree that you need to move Bedard while his value is peaking but I doubt his value will be any less in March than it is now. You have to make the right deal. (I think that deal involves the Dodgers and includes Matt Kemp but that's just my opinion now isn't it?)

The most compelling reason for decisive action, however, has nothing to do with the circumstances of the individual players. The Orioles cannot wait an additional six months or a year because they already have waited long enough.

Truly one of the dumbest things I've read in quite a long time. Circumstances be damned! We've waited long enough and demand change? If you don't take into account the circumstances of the individual players, why not just give them away?

Look, the circumstances are these: Miguel Tejada is still one of the better offensive shortstops in the league and although his glove isn't what it once was, he is still an average fielder. Erik Bedard is one of the best pitchers in baseball and is a great value since he is still two full years away from free agency. These are great bargaining chips and you can't ignore that fact and make a deal for the sake of a deal.

*****

Andy MacPhail is in no hurry to make a deal according to Jeff Zrebiec. Nor should he be! My feeling is that MacPhail really would like to make a deal this week but this is how you play poker or buy a used car. If you show desperation, you're done. MacPhail has the high hand here and he knows it, especially when it comes to moving Bedard.

This isn't MacPhail's first time at the rodeo and he had some pretty good mentors in his father and grandfather. I think we'll make out just fine.

*****

The Mets offering Carlos Gomez, Phillip Humber and Aaron Heilman of Erik Bedard has been one of the most consistent rumors in Nashville this week. Not thick enough! Let me get this straight. You want to get one of the top 5 pitchers in the NL at a bargain basement salary for a light hitting but speedy outfielder, a pitcher with an 18-19 record and an ERA over 4.00 in his minor league career and a journeyman long relief man? Get out Omar Minaya! Get out of my office!

(notebook hurled at the wall as a frightened Minaya flees)