A Golden Argument for Nick Markakis

Nick Markakis had a fantastic year with the glove this year. We know it. But we've watched a bunch of Oriole games this season. How many non-Oriole fans can say that?

So Nick's hopes for a Gold Glove rest on word of mouth and the numbers.

Defensive stats are flawed but if you look at the whole spectrum, you start to get an idea of how good Markakis was this year. All stats are for AL corner outfielders.

RZR for AL Corner Outfielders

Drew       .935

Markakis   .925

Crawford   .911

Ibanez     .893

Dye        .887

 

Only J.D. Drew had a better Zone Rating. But...

OOZ (Out of Zone) Plays by AL Corner Outfielders

Markakis   56

Dye        55

Gutierrez  55

Suzuki     50

Rios       50


 

Nick leads the corner outfielders is plays out of his "defensive zone". Great range, great jump on the ball.

BIZ Leaders

Markakis   295

Ibanez     291

Young      275

Abreu      274

Dye        238


 

Fielding Percentage

Dye      .996

Abreu    .993

Markakis .991


 

Fielding Percentage is a very flawed stat since you can't make an error on a ball you didn't get to in the first place. But Markakis is still third in the league with only 3 errors all year despite leading the league in balls hit to his "zone".

Assists

Markakis   17

Young      11

Abreu      10

Anderson    9

Ibanez      9


 

Markakis is far and away the leader in outfield assists. Only B.J. Upton (a centerfielder) is close with 16 assists. Among corner outfielders, he is the undisputed champ.

All of this while leading the league's corner outfielders in innings played.

What else does he have to do?

Nothing.

The only problem is that voters select the Gold Glovers from the entire pool of outfielders so he'll be competing with centerfielders too. At a glance, there are four centerfielders who are worthy of serious consideration: Carlos Gomez (Twins), Grady Sizemore (Indians), our own Adam Jones and B.J. Upton (Rays).

Jones is a rookie and played fewer innings than the others due to his injuries so he is probably out. B.J. Upton led AL centerfielders in assists but didn't show great range and made a fair share of errors. Carlos Gomez had the best overall range and made the most SportsCenter caliber catches. Grady Sizemore was probably the best all-around centerfielder in the AL.

Sizemore and Gomez should win two of the three available Gold Gloves. I can't see Markakis losing to Upton. Only Torii Hunter, based on reputation alone and not current prowess, could jump up and bite him.

Stupider things have happened.

However, I am guessing Nick picks up the first of several Gold Gloves this year. It won't be because he doesn't deserve it.

Base Hits: 10/29/2008

I don't always agree with ESPN's Keith Law but I come to respect his opinion. He's a smart guy when it comes to scouting. In his caht from earlier this week:



Matt J. (Baltimore, MD): Klaw - Wondering if you saw Brandon Snyder at the AFL, and if he can become an everyday 1B for the O's at some point.



Keith Law: Yes, saw him, liked the swing and the raw power, but he needs to show he can drop the head of the bat and get to the ball down. Potential is there for him to be an everyday 1b offensively.



I am pulling for every Oriole prospect but was not that high on the guy given his huge strikeout totals. Law likes him more than I do. Law also seems to like Nolan Reimold a lot more than I didi too. I see these opinions as a good sign that our prospects are viewed in a better light around baseball than we think.



Also from Law:



Greg (philly): Is Ryan Howard turning into a real life Pedro Cerrano?



Keith Law: Haven't seen his locker.



Good line.

*****

Adam Loewen is a tool.

Yes, baseball is a business. Yes, he was well within his rights to sign with the Blue Jays.

But taking $4 million from the club that was willing to let you re-invent yourself as a hitter when you flamed out as a pitcher? A club that you had a handshake agreement with to re-sign with to sign with a division rival? That's a dirty move. I don't care how long a shot it was that he made it back to the majors. It's rotten.

Your have no honor, Adam. Good day, sir! I said, good day!

*****

The stuff going on out in the winter leagues is just too depressing...more on that later...

Getting to Know Brandon Snyder

Brandon Snyder was the Orioles first round pick in 2005. He was drafted as a catcher but now projects as a corner infielder. After an off 2007, Brandon put together a solid 2008 with the best full season slugging percentage of his career. One of the O's top prospects, he earned a trip to Arizona to play with the other top Baby Birds in the AFL.

(On a side note, the Surprise Rafters, the team the O's prospects play for got beat 28-1 on Monday afternoon. 28-1. Ladies and gentlemen, that's 30-3 for all practical purposes. On the bright side, the lone run came on a Nolan Reimold solo shot.)

Brandon's been hitting the cover off the ball for Surprise, hitting even better than Matt Wieters but not getting the playing time that Matt is. He is blogging from Arizona. I like player blogs. You can learn a lot by reading between the lines. What have I learned?

On the surface, the 21-year old Snyder appears to be pretty grounded and involved with his family. His father was a journeyman major league pitcher and he seems very close to his family. He has interests outside of baseball (cooking, hunting, fishing...hmm, those are all really related aren't they?) and is active in charitable organizations.

Having guns is good. Gives him something in common with Luke Scott, Nick Markakis and, if he stays with the team, Jamie Walker.

Some other tidbits:

Our facilities are UNBELIEVABLE! Our home field is the big league spring training facility of the Rangers and Royals and it is top shelf. It definitely makes you feel like you're in the big leagues when you put on the big league uniform and walk out on a big league field like that.

From this you can glean how crappy the Orioles minor league Spring Training facilities are. They must be really bad. Probably worse than the Ft. Lauderdale site.

Even though we try and get some home cooked meals out here its tuff not being home....My best friend from back home called me to tell me it was opening day of bow season. It stinks not being able to be home for the little things like that but that's the sacrifice that we make to live our dreams. And im sorry if that's a bad example but im sure a lot of you out there will understand what I mean.

That's not an interesting fact in itself but it's just so damn honest! Maybe the most honest thing I've seen a professional athlete write.

I'm rooting for the kid. Hope he blogs some more.

To wrap this up, a comment on this comment left on Brandon's blog.

Brandon,As a fan of baseball I would like to congradulate you on a great season that will hopefully jump-start your big leauge career! As an animal lover I would hope you keep your hunting exploits to yourself! Stick to baseball camps and working on your defense...
By hudsdog@comcast.net

What a tool. The kid can't talk about his hobbies because you are an "animal lover"? Hey Brandon, keep talking about your hunting exploits and do it graphically. I love to see a detailed description of how to field dress a buck. What a dummy this hudsdog is.

(For full disclosure, the guy revealed he is a Red Sox fan later in the comment so he has it coming. And for the record, I don't hunt either...)

Rudy Ray Moore (1927-2008)

R.I.P. Dolemite.

Keep pimpin'...

O.G. Orioles...This Ain't Pretty

Reading this article by Matthew Namee at The Hardball Times got me thinking. Namee hypothetically returns all MLB players to the original organizations they signed with and takes a look at the rosters. He only covered the teams that could field competent major league rosters so, of course, the Orioles were left out of the article. You can guess what comes next.

If you aren't eating anything, take a look at the 2008/2009 Baltimore Orioles 25 man roster consisting only of players originally signed by the club.

The Starting Lineup

C Matt Wieters
1B Jayson Werth
2B Brian Roberts
SS Augie Ojeda
3B Brandon Fahey
RF Nick Markakis
CF Willie Harris
LF Nolan Reimold
DH Gregg Zaun

Wieters would have been rushed to the bigs and along with Roberts and Markakis would be the bright spots in the lineup. Fahey would be forced to play third and former catching prospect (and current Phillies outfielder) Werth would be converted to firstbase.

I figured that the organization would rush Reimold to the majors in lieu of trotting out Alex Ochoa in left. Current Nationals centerfielder Harris would be back in black and orange. Ditto at DH for Rick Dempsey's nephew.

The Bench

C Eli Whiteside
Util Jerry Hairston
Util Mike Fontenot

Whiteside would be the only available option for a backup catcher. Eeesh. Hairston could be the fourth outfielder and Fontenot would be a capable infield backup.

The Rotation

SP Mike Mussina
SP Erik Bedard
SP Daniel Cabrera
SP John Maine
SP Garrett Olson

It's not a great rotation but, given good health, it's better than we have right now! Brian Matusz would still be waiting in the minors for a shot to crack this rotation too. John Maine would be competent in the AL but not great and Mussina would be wrapping up an illustrious Oriole career.

The Bullpen

RHP Jim Johnson
RHP Hayden Penn
LHP John Parrish
RHP Chris Britton
RHP Radhames Liz
RHP Jim Hoey
LHP Arthur Rhodes
RHP Chris Ray

Liz and Penn take the Albers\Johnson route to the bigs and are probably better for it. But overall, the pen is shaky outside of Johnson and Ray. Welcome back Arthur Rhodes!

In conclusion, it's just another example of the Oriole's poor drafting over the years. The inability to develop corner infielders and corner outfielders is especially glaring since those prosepcts are usually to easiest to find!

Also, only two players on this list were signed from outside of the U.S. (Cabrera and Liz). That will have to change if the Orioles hope to return to contention.

Tomorrow, a check in with some of those players that we hope will change that!

O's Spring Training in Ft. Lauderdale for '09...But Then What?

I got a notice in my e-mail informing me that Orioles Spring Training is just around the corner! Pitchers and catchers will report before you know it! (At this point, the obvious joke is, "What pitchers?" but I'll refrain. Oh, and there's only one catcher anyone will be watching at ST 2009...)

Spring Training will remain in Ft. Lauderdale...for this year. I've talked about this before but I am all for the Orioles leaving Ft. Lauderdale for a more attractive location. Ft. Lauderdale is a) a dump, b) so small that the O's minor league camp is across the state in Sarasota and c) is still painted with Yankee colors, the field's previous tenants.

The obvious and attractive choice would be to move into the historic Dodgertown facility in Vero Beach that the Dodgers left vacant after 61 years of spending Spring Training there. But as Ray McNulty opined in the TCPalm, that may not be the only option:

...if the Orioles decide this month to move their spring-training operation to Vero Beach in 2010 -- it will be on their terms and at their price...

Because our Indian River County representatives, elected and otherwise, have botched this thing from the start.

They've bargained from a position of weakness, rather than strength, conducting these negotiations as if the Orioles held all the cards, as if the team would be doing us a favor...

I have to admit, I'm surprised that the county would be so eager to keep a team in Vero Beach. I've always understood that the area has a lot of wealth and that they wouldn't be in a big hurry to have another team move in. But this must be good for the Orioles, right? What did they get by dealing from a perceived position of strength?

They've given the Orioles the upper hand -- first by signing a ridiculously one-sided exclusivity agreement under which the team could continue to talk to Fort Lauderdale but the county couldn't talk to any other teams, then by extending the deadline for accepting their offer until Halloween, thus allowing these negotiations to drag on far too long.

Worse, they've allowed Orioles owner Peter Angelos to use the county's pitch as leverage in simultaneous negotiations with Fort Lauderdale, his team's current spring-training headquarters.

And now that the exclusivity agreement with Indian River County has expired, Angelos is free to talk to any other community interested in becoming the Orioles' spring-training home.

He can talk to Fort Myers, which could lose the Boston Red Sox to Sarasota.
He can talk to Sarasota, which lost the Cincinnati Reds to Arizona and is sure to call the Orioles, if the Red Sox stay in Fort Myers.

So Angelos has options.

If Angelos is truly deeply involved in these negotiations, I have to grudgingly say he's doing a masterful job.

He's going to parlay substandard Spring Training facilities into a) a brand new facility in Ft. Lauderdale, b) a beautiful and historic facility in Vero Beach or c) reunite the whole organization (major and minor league) in Sarasota where the minor league camp is right now. (for now, the Red Sox look like they're staying in Fort Myers....)

If so, there's still a chance the Orioles will bring spring training back to Vero Beach.

But because of the way this thing has been handled, it will be on their terms and at their price.

Lucky us, huh?

So Indian River County may get held hostage by Peter Angelos? Welcome to the world of an Oriole fan, Mr. McNulty.

So where are the Orioles in spring of 2010? In order of likeliness, I'd say Vero Beach, then Sarasota, then the new Ft. Lauderdale facility.

Personal preference? My sister moved across the state to Fort Myers so Sarasota would be excellent. Then Vero Beach and lastly Ft. Lauderdale.

Vero Beach has extended the deadline to Halloween. By the end of the month, at least one option will be eliminated.

Base Hits: 10/2/2008

Well, the one last thing I was rooting for the last week of the season was for Nick Markakis to walk 100 times this season. Sure, it was just a way to keep interested during the last few games of yet another losing season but I was pulling for him nonetheless!

Nick lost his bid to become the third player in Oriole history to join the 100-100 club by one walk. 99 walks for the season. Still, the season was another nice step forward in his career. But more on that later...

*****

It's this time of year when I put away my Oriole loyalties and start following...the West Oahu Canefires and the Surprise Rafters!

Yes, it's time for the fall and winter leagues and the Orioles continue to play, albeit as different entities.

2007 4th round pick Tim Bascom heads the list of players playing in Hawaii this winter and the Canfires are undefeated on the young season at 4-0.

The real glamour players for the O's minor league system are in Surprise this year. C MAtt Wieters, OF Noland Reimold (for the third straight fall) and top 2008 pick Brian Matusz will all represent the Orioles against the best talent in the minors this fall in Surprise, Arizona. Games start next week.

*****

Win Shares on the trade monitor are complete for the year. Again, I always like these trades in the long run but had no idea that Adam Jones would outperform Erik Bedard by himself in the first season of the trade! Likewise, I liked the addition of Luke Scott but had no clue that he would nearly make up for the Miguel Tejada's offense by himself. An there are 8 other players we got back in those trades. We may be able to point to those trades in three years as the point where the Orioles turned the corner to becoming a winning organization again.

*****

At long last, Desert O of Weaver's Tantrum has finished his hike of the Appalachian Trail. More than 2000 miles from Georgia to Maine that took him the better part of the baseball season. Congrats to him!

*****

I'll be quiet with posting (probably for the next week and a half) while I am in Belgium next week. If you're interested in such things, you can follow along at Bottles of Barley. But you never know, a layover at an airport, a delayed flight might prompt me to do some Oriole blogging during the trip as well.

The 100-100 Club

Just like the last 10 years, I struggle to look for something to root for at the end of the season. Coming into the month, I was rooting for 70 wins. But stuck on 67 in the midst of an 8 game losing streak, the chances of winning three of the next four is slim. (The bright side: the Orioles will get at least the 6th pick in the draft next year...good news for a team that seems willing to do something useful with those picks.)

So what's left? I'm rooting for Nick Markakis to walk once more time in the next four games and become the first Oriole to join the 100-100 club in 18 years.

What's the 100-100 club? Long before I knew what the Three True Outcomes were, I was a big fan of players who could draw 100 walks while striking out 100 times in a season. Don't ask me why, there was just something about a guy who demonstrated a great eye at the plate but wasn't afraid to swing away and fail either. Mickey Tettleton was my favorite player in this regard and had 100-100 seasons multiple times, though only once with the Orioles.

Nick could become only the third player in Oriole history to reach those milestones in the same season. The others:

Player           Year   BB   K   AVG   HR
Ken Singleton    1977   107 101 .328   24
Ken Singleton    1979   109 118 .295   35
Mickey Tettleton 1990   106 160 .256   15
 

Walk, Nick, Walk!

Five Big Disappointments of 2008

1. Adam Loewen as a Pitcher

Loewen's career as a pitcher is over. He will attempt to come back as a hitter but his value to the organization is greatly diminished and perhaps is now nil. A guy who was thought to finally develop into a solid big league pitcher in 2008 is now lost for good.

2. Nobody Could Play Shortstop

I was suspect of Luis Hernandez before the season but even I didn't imagine he would fail so spectacularly with his bat and with his glove. Brandon Fahey gave no relief. The Warehouse ran out of patience with Freddie Bynum. By the end of the year, an old defensive specialist (Juan Castro) and a utility infielder with a shaky glove and an average (at best) bat (Alex Cintron) were splitting time at short.

Add to this that there are no prospects ready to step up and that the free agent pool for shortstops is very shallow, it looks like more of the same in 2009.

3. Nobody Could Help Jeremy Guthrie in the Rotation

Loewen went down. Neither Olson nor Liz was able to step up to be a serviceable starter. Ditto for Brian Burress. The cupboard is nearly bare as far as the rotation is concerned.

4. AAA Prospects

Few of the advanced prospects from Norfolk contributed to the big club. Jim Johnson and Jim Miller were notable exceptions.

Scott Moore and Mike Constanzo had down years. Hayden Penn continued his struggles and got injured again.

Again, the upper tier of our farm system offers little hope.

5. Matt Albers Injury

Out of all the candidates at the time, Matt Albers looked like he was best equipped to take over for Steve Trachsel in the O's rotation. Unfortunately, he got injured right about that time and we'll have to wait until at least Spring Training to see if he's capable of grabbing a starting role in 2009.

Dishonorable Mentions -

Troy Patton Injury

Before the season, he was a dark horse candidate for the rotation. We'll have to see if he ever returns to form after shoulder surgery.

Brian Burres -

While I thought he was better suited to a relief role, he did not perform well while starting or coming out of the pen.

Ramon Hernandez -

He came to Spring Training in shape and with a new focus. He never broke out of his early season slump and had a very mediocre year. Disappointment tempered by impending arrival of Matt Wieters.

Five Pleasant Surprises from 2008

1. The Melvin Mora Renaissance - .284/.344/.488, 23 HR, 101 RBI, 117 OPS+

It's almost as if Melvin Mora invented the time machine during the offseason, went back to 2005 and sent that version of himself back to play for the Orioles of 2008. Mora had been given up for dead as far as being a productive major league bat. Outside of A-Rod, he's the most productive third baseman in the American League. The only thing negative to be said about Mora this year is that his play in the field has regressed after two straight seasons of above average glove work.

2. Luke Scott as a Regular - .270/.351/.499, 23 HR, 122 OPS+

The Orioles have been desperate for a respectable leftfielder for years and when they traded Miguel Tejada to the Astros one of the players they got back was a 30 year old platoon player and promptly handed him the starting job. Scott still doesn't hit lefties well but turned in the most productive year of his career and the best season from an Oriole leftfielder since the prime of B. J. Surhoff. A diamond in the rough turned up by Andy Macphail.

3. The Oriole Offense - 5th in Runs, 4th in OPS, 4th in HR

The Oriole offense, as a whole, put on a good show this season. When you consider how impotent the O's bats were in 2007, they put up some surprisingly good numbers in 2008.

4. Aubrey Huff Breaks Out - .314/.371/.576, 32 HR, 106 RBI, 146 OPS+

After three very average years and some offseason controversy, Huff exploded out of the gate in April and has had the best season of his career. Huff provided the offensive spark that fans were hoping for in 2007 and he would make attractive trade bait in the offseason.

5. Jim Johnson Emerges - 68.7 IP, 38 K, 2.23 ERA, 198 ERA+

A starter in the minors, Johnson was called up from Norfolk and placed in the bullpen. He became one of the better setup men in the league and a symbol of the rejuvenated Oriole relief corp.

Honorable Mentions -

George Sherrill - an afterthought in the Erik Bedard trade, George had an up and down year but he made the All-Star team and showed that he can close in this league even if he's not among the elite closers in baseball.

Luis Montanez - the late-bloomer made his major league debut and has hit .310 during his stint with the big club. Perhaps a fourth outfielder/platoon partner for Luke Scott in 2009?

Adam Jones - The Truth was up and down during the season but on the whole played a great centerfield and showed a solid bat for a player that green. Good signs for the future.

Later, Five Big Disappointments from 2008. Those will be much easier to find unfortunately...

Base Hits: 9/17/2008

I should know better than to get worked up by message board posts but I just had to get this off my chest...

Lots of talk on Oriole messages boards about how this team has quit. They've given up. Mailing it in. 

I'll admit, it's quite difficult to watch the games these days. But the people saying this team has quit are obviously not watching the games. Kevin Millar has not quit. Nick Markakis has not quit. Adam Jones has not quit. Chris Waters has not quit. Melvin Mora, Jeremy Guthrie, Luke Scott and Brian Roberts have not quit. To suggest that the O's have bailed on this season is a complete misreading of the situation. The team is not very good. But they certainly have not quit.

Before the season, when many were predicting 100 losses, I said that I thought this team would be no worse than last year. They have to win three more games to exceed last year's win total. Hardly a slam dunk but I'm still rooting that they make it.

*****

Although I have been quite against it (and Andy MacPhail says this is against his philosophy as well), I think it is now unavoidable. The O's need to go after a couple of free agent pitchers in the offseason. I'm not saying that The Warehouse should break the bank chasing after C.C. Sabathia or Ben Sheets but a top free agent pitcher flanked by a journeyman would look good for 2009. John Lackey and Paul Byrd. Or Derek Lowe and Jon Garland. Just a couple of guys who can help Guthrie round out the rotation until any of the young arms develop into legitimate starters. We can't go through another season of inflicting emotional damage on pitchers who aren't ready for the big club yet. Just a thought.

*****

Matt Wieters was named Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year. No big surprise. The beast slouches toward Baltimore to be born...

Wieters will play this in the Arizona Fall League

 starting next month. Nolan Reimold will make his third straight appearance in the AFL. SS Blake Davis will join them and he will be intriguing to watch. Top pick of the 2008 draft Brian Matusz will make his professional debut in for the Surprise Rafters.

Lots of good baseball going on this fall and winter...

*****

Grimace of the Week comes from Nick Blackburn:

You'd be grimacing too if you lost to Radhames Liz...

******

I should be blogging a bit more regularly now. Look for season wrap-ups and such in the coming weeks.

Base Hits: 8/28/2008

Work and family are conspiring against me! Just the normal facts of life but don't expect a lot of posting from me until the middle of September...

*****

Just wanted to spotlight the great job Jake Arrietta did pitching for team USA against China a couple weeks back. 6 shutout innings while striking out 7? Fantastic!

*****

Yesterday, the Orioles snapped a 5-game skid and won their 63rd game. It was a foregone conclusion in the minds of many in the media that the Orioles would lose 100 games and be the worst team in baseball. They will not lose 100 and are far from the worst team in baseball. This alone is a small victory for the franchise.

Just for the record, the Detroit Tigers were picked to win close to 100 games and perhaps score 1000 runs in 2008. They have exactly 1 more win than Baltimore.

August has been tough (as I predicted) but Baltimore is only 11-14 for the month which has seen them play some very tough competition. If they could somehow take the Tampa series, you would have to consider August an incredible success.

*****

This is a bit old but here is an interview with Baysox pitcher Chris Tillman from the guys at Baseball Digest Daily Live. Good stuff.

*****

Speaking of Chris Tillman, ESPN's Keith Law had a scouting report from a recent Baysox game:

Orioles pitching prospect Chris Tillman started last night for AA Bowie at Reading and easily outpitched his somewhat more highly-paid opponent, Adam Eaton.....

Tillman started out throwing 87-88 mph, but then gradually increased his velo to the low 90s, topping out at 93. The right-hander has good life with tailing action on his fastball, and sinks it at 87-88. At 92-93, it flattens out but still has the same tailing action. His best pitch is his curveball, a very sharp breaking ball with some two-plane break and great depth. It moves quickly with tight rotation and looks a lot harder than its 74-77 mph velocity. He throws a changeup with good tumbling action, but he doesn't use it often or show much feel for it yet.

Aside from a hook at the start of his delivery, he's pretty clean overall, staying over the rubber well and then driving forward with a long stride, taking advantage of his long legs. He gets good downhill plane on almost everything he throws and keeps his head steady through the delivery.

Where Tillman fell short of absolute top-prospect status was in his command. He looks the part, with his clean delivery, but he doesn't locate his fastball welll, not even to a general part of the zone. He misses bats because his curveball is just toxic and because his fastball gets in on hitters quickly, but he needs to be more precise with the latter pitch to succeed in the big leagues.

And a couple comments about Matt Wieters:

Catcher Matt Wieters homered on the first pitch he saw from Eaton last night, an 84 mph nothing-ball on the outer half that Wieters spit on and sent out to left-center (the opposite field, since he was batting left-handed). Wieters, the game's top hitting prospect, has gotten significantly stronger since he was an amateur; at Georgia Tech he was wiry strong, but had room on his frame to add muscle, which he's done fairly quickly. His sheer size, not a lack of skill, might make him a little more questionable behind the plate long-term, but he looks like he's going to hit for 30-plus home run power.

Good news from the farm...

*****

MelMo batting line for August: .427/.463/.781

That's good for a 1.244 OPS. More on this later but this may be the best month Mora has had in his career....

*****

Matt Wieters is coming....

Base Hits: 8/15/2008

Wow! Busy week at work. Where has the week gone? But I figured I'd check in for Friday...

*****

It's hard to get real excited over a player like Lou Montanez (at least his upside) but it's hard not to like the guy. Hey, it's rare but late bloomers do happen in baseball. See Howard Johnson. Or Jeremy Guthrie.

*****

You know, this whole Hayden Penn thing is a real drag. Every time he looks like he's about to get a break, he suffers another injury.

I'm still rooting for the guy but the truth is that he hasn't been the same pitcher since he had surgery to remove bone spurs in his elbow in May of 2007. Look at his numbers in the minors since his fantastic 2006 run at AAA.

*****


One year ago, I was biting my nails and prepping a scathing post attacking the Oriole front office and Peter Angelos for failing to sign Matt Wieters. This year, I have no such angst.

I actually have confidence that the Orioles will sign their top pick Brian Matusz before the mid night deadline. Apparently, so does everyone else:

Eric (Albany): Only 3 of the Top 10 picks have signed....of the 7 left how many don't reach an agreement?

Jim Callis: I did an Ask BA on this that you can check out at baseballamerica.com, too. I think of the 11 unsigned first-rounders, 10 eventually will sign. Allan Dykstra's hip condition worries the Padres, so that deal might not get done. As for the rest of the guys, we're in the rhetoric stage where the clubs say they have to be financially realistic and the players say they really will consider going back to school. Don't buy it, I think they'll all sign.


+++


Peter Schmuck: Matusz was in Baltimore yesterday for a physical, so it's down to the final dollar figure and roster conditions. Since I don't believe the kid is going to leave several million dollars on the table and risk his valuable arm on another college season, I'm pretty confident something will be announced late this afternoon. Hope they don't make us sweat it out all night.



++++

Roch Kubatko: It will be a major shock if the sides reach an agreement late tonight and Matusz's signature winds up on a contract. But it's expected to happen tomorrow before the midnight deadline. Both sides sound very confident.

I feel much better than I did last year. I hope my trust is not misplaced.

*****

Grimace(s) of the Day:

The collected grimaces of Shin-Soo Choo, Franklin Gutierrez and Jamey Carroll after the Orioles score 8 runs in the 8th last night.

*****

Aubrey Huff clears waivers. Hurry up and trade him before he remembers he's Aubrey Huff and not the second coming of Boog Powell.

Also clearing waivers were Kevin Millar, Jay Payton and Jamie Walker. You've got to trade walker for anything decent. If the O's have one area of depth, it's the bullpen. Jay Payton could actually be a useful right-handed bat off the bench for a contender. Ditto for Millar.

*****

The creator of Orioles blog Weaver's Tantrum, Desert O aka Dave aka Vegas has now hiked more than 1500 miles from from Georgia to Massachusetts. I encourage all in the oriole blogosphere to head over to his other blog, A Bite of the Appalachian, and post some words of encouragement. (BTW, it's a fascinating read...)

*****

Song of the Week:

Sticking with Chicago-based bands from the early-90's, Urge Overkill with "View of the Rain". Later...

Base Hits: 8/8/2008

Looking back on the week that was, Rob Neyer of ESPN.com wrote about the improbable performance of Matt Waters. It's part of ESPN Insider so here's the main text:

Waters' masterpiece for O's quite a shocker

I'd like to embrace the utter unlikelihood of what Chris Waters did last night.

As we see in a sidebar here, Waters became just the sixth pitcher in the past 50 years to throw eight-plus innings with no runs and one hit in a major league debut.

--snip--

Waters isn't even supposed to be in the major leagues. Look at the ages for each of those pitchers; before Waters, fellow Oriole Milacki was the oldest to make a similarly spectacular debut … and Waters is more than three years older than Milacki was. And although Milacki might not have been a Grade A prospect when he reached the majors in September 1988, that summer he'd gone 12-8 with a 2.70 ERA for Triple-A Rochester.

Just looking at the ages of the other pitchers on this list, it seems likely that all had done impressive work in the minors. We do know that Marichal's a Hall of Famer, and we know that May won 152 games in the majors and was still pitching at 39.

Waters, though?

He's not built like a pitcher. He's listed as being 6 feet tall, 170 pounds, which means he's probably 5-foot-10 and 165 pounds. The Braves did like him enough in 2000 to draft him out of South Florida Community College in the fifth round. After initially pitching well as a professional, Waters stalled out; four years after being drafted, he was still pitching in Class A, and wasn't pitching particularly well. And after an unimpressive Double-A season (2006), the Braves cut Waters loose.

Last year, pitching for the Orioles' Double-A team, Waters went 8-9 with a 4.49 ERA. Before this season, he wasn't even listed among the Orioles' top 30 prospects, and he shouldn't have been. He is (or rather, was) a 27-year-old Double-A pitcher with yawn-inspiring numbers.
This year? Finally, Waters blew through Double-A: 5-0 with a 1.69 ERA in six starts. Then came a promotion to Triple-A, where he … stunk: 3-6 with a 5.70 ERA in 18 games.
So why did he get the call to the majors, finally? In Waters' last start for Norfolk, last Thursday against Lehigh Valley, he pitched seven innings and gave up one hit.
That's right. In what must be the greatest week of his professional life, Waters has given up two hits in 15 innings.

All of which is unlikely enough. Just as unlikely: Waters already is enjoying a significant major league career. He won't be the best pitcher on that list and probably won't match Steve Woodard's 32 career wins. (Interesting tidbit: After three years out of baseball, Woodard is pitching in the minors again, and you never know.)

However, I do give Waters a 50-50 chance of catching Billy Rohr, who finished his career with three major league wins.

Good stuff. But Neyer rarely disappoints.

*****

Chad Bradford got traded to the Rays. Hard to evaluate the trade until we see who we get back but Bradford was the only free agent reliever from the 2006 offseason who did not disappoint.

But Dave Cameron at FanGraphs.com reminds us that submariner pitchers are fun. And he's right! Sometimes we get so caught up in the winning and losing, we don't appreciate a guy until he's gone. But it was nice having another submariner on the team. I mean, who didn't love Todd Frohwirth?

*****

John Sickels reviewed his preseason list of Oriole Top Prospects on his Minor League Ball blog.

It's a mixed bag but Matt Wieters continues to crush minor league pitching and Nolan Reimold looks to be close to the big club as well.

*****

Song of the Week:

I recently bought the re-issue of Liz Phair's classic 1993 album Exile in Guyville. Reissue. They let it go out of print! Criminal!

It's reasons like these that the major labels deserve whatever is coming to them.

Here's "Stratford-On-Guy" from said album. Enjoy.

Terry Crowley and Oriole DH's Over The Years

Enchanting Sunshine made a comment on one of my previous posts about Aubrey Huff and how he's having one of the better seasons ever for an Oriole DH. "Where was Terry Crowley?", she wondered.

I only included players that qualified for the batting title. Crowley never did. So I changed the criteria to include Crowley in the assessment. Here it is:

             Year  OPS+
T. Crowley   1979  154
H. Baines    1999  150
H. Baines    1995  142
H. Baines    1993  137
A. Huff      2008  136
K. Singleton 1981  135
J. Dwyer     1987  131
K. Singleton 1983  131
S. Horn      1991  130
T. Crowley   1980  130
 

Crowley only played in 61 games in 1979 but he made the most of his at bats. He was perhaps more impressive in 1980 when he playe din 92 games, still hitting at a high level.

Look, it's Sam Horn! You think Weaver would've loved having Horn on his bench? Horn could've been the Terry Crowley of the 90's.

Huff has fallen off the pace a bit since last week but still finishes in the top 5 of all-time.

E.S. also wondered about Huff coming through for the team this year. Luke Scott has a lot of big hits but who's had the biggest hits for the club this year?

Total WPA leaders for the 2008 Baltimore Orioles:

           WPA
Huff       1.87
Roberts    1.40
Mora       1.35
Markakis   1.00
Scott      0.56
 

Surprised to see Luke Scott so low? I sure was.

Huff has loomed large overall (he has been uncharacteristically consistent all year) but Melvin Mora at number 3? Has the Melmosity been peaking and I haven't noticed?

(BTW, from 1979-1981, Crowley had 78, 266 and 166 plate appearances respectively. He posted WPAs of 1.19, 2.00 and 1.50 respectively. Crazy numbers for a guy who played so little. Per at bat, he may be the clutchiest player in Oriole history.)

The biggest hits of the year by measure of WPA:

10 - Adam Jones - 6/29 - .351 WPA

Down by a run in the top of the 12th, The Truth singles home Markakis to tie up the Nats.

9 - Ramon Hernandez - 6/14 - .388 WPA

Two outs in the bottom of the 9th, Hernandez singles home Freddie Bynum to tie up the Pirates.

8 - Ramon Hernandez - 4/12 - .405 WPA

Down to their last out, Hernandez gives the Orioles life by hitting a solo shot to tie the game against Houston.

7 - Luke Scott - 7/19 - .414 WPA

With one out in the bottom of the 10th, Scott homers to tie the game.

6 - Melvin Mora - 4/17 - .418

Two outs in the ninth and the score ties, Mora singles Roberts home off Bobby Jenks to win the game.

5 - Ramon Hernandez - 7/19 - .431

Walk-off homer against Joe Zumaya to defeat the Tigers.

4 - Brian Roberts - 6/15 - .489

Walk-off homer against Matt Capps to defeat the Pirates.

3 - Melvin Mora - 6/17 - .556

Down 5-6 in the bottom of the 8th with 2 out, Mora doubles to center scoring Adam Jones and Brian Roberts.

2 - Aubrey Huff - 5/27 - .611

Down 7-6 in the bottom of the 8th to the Rays, Huff doubles in Kevin Millar and Mora to give the O's the lead.

1 - Aubrey Huff - 4/2 - .617

In the bottom of the 11th, Huff doubles to the wall off of Yankee reliever (and Oriole badmouther) LaTroy Hawkins. Mora comes all the way from 1st to score the winning run.

Who would have thought that Huff had the two biggest hits all season? Not I. Luke Scott only shows up once. Ramon Hernandez shows up three time lending creedence to my belief that he is having a better season than the boxscore shows. (Not that it matters much. Matt Wieters approaches.) Mora on both lists may indicate that he is having a better year than I thought as well. More to dwell on later...

E.S. also said, "I guess that's why it's better to not rely on perceptions." Well, not necessarily!

Earlier in the year, George Sherrill was being compared by many to Don Stanhouse (especially by E.S.) so I took a look at where Sherrill ranked among other "nailbiter" closers in Oriole history. At the time, he did not make the Top Ten based on my criteria. Now he is in a statistical dead heat with Stanhouse's 1978 season in terms of WHIP. That puts him as the #5 nailbitingest closer in Oriole history.

Sometimes perception is correct regardless of what the numbers say!

But eventually, the numbers tend to catch up.

Base Hits: 8/6/2008

One of the many great things about baseball is that you never know what you might see on a given night. When the Orioles threw LHP Chris Waters to the wolves last night, you wouldn't have expected that their desperation would yield a baseball rarity.

Waters made his major league debut, threw 8 innings of 1 hit ball and won the game. Before Waters, you could literally count the number of times that happened on one hand. At least since 1960. Other notables on the list include Bob Milacki and Juan Marichal.

But only Waters did it at so advanced an age. And only Waters was a veteran of 9 minor league seasons. Totally unexpected and utterly wonderful to watch.

*****

Speaking of unexpected pitching performances, Matt has a great post examining Jeremy Guthrie at Roar from 34.

I took a look at Guthrie before the season and could only find three other pitchers that came out of nowhere and had the success that Guthrie did. Guthrie is the only one of them that improved during his sophomore season.

Not bad for a guy who looked like AAA filler when the Orioles picked him up.

*****

Adam Jones goes on the DL.

The biggest drag about this is that Jones misses two months of development against major league pitching. Hopefully, this doesn't slow his ascent to stardom.

*****

I talked in my last post about the tough August the Orioles had to face but Buck Showalter on Baseball Tonight had a more positive take on it last night. Out of nowhere, Showalter said that the Orioles would have a lot to say about who wins the division and the wild card because they are better than people give them credit for.

So that's a positive spin on the next two months. Let's play spoiler for somebody. Hopefully the Yankees.

*****

Time for a Grimace of the Day. Jarrod Washburn from over the weekend wishing he was a Yankee:

Base Hits: 7/31/2008

Shortly after I posted yesterday, I received a press release from MASN stating that Roch Kubatko will be joining MASN and that the Roch Around the Clock blog will continue of there starting on Friday. Here's the link to the news on MASN.com. Update your bookmarks accordingly.

*****

It's going to be a tough August for the Birds. They only play two series against teams with losing records (Seattle and Cleveland) and they play those series on the road. Speaking of playing on the road, the O's play 16 of 28 on the road in August. The O's are only playing at a .400 winning percentage on the road this season.

It's looking like it'll be a rough August for the Baltimore Orioles.

*****

Not a whisper about Aubrey Huff moving at the deadline. Huff has put together one of the best seasons ever (so far) by a Oriole DH:

          OPS+  Year
H. Baines 150   1999
H. Baines 142   1995
A. Huff   140   2008
H. Baines 137   1993
Singleton 131   1983
 

Baines and Singleton...that's rarefied air in Orioles history.

He has also matched his RBI total from 2007 already and surpassed his home run numbers.

I have to grudgingly give Huff some respect for his performance this year. And I thought he was done as an impact bat. I was wrong.

O's Win Again

The umps tried to sabotage the evening by ejecting D-Cab during one of his very rare good outings. But the O's won anyway and will take the series with the Yanks.

I hope the Yanks fall a couple games short of the postseason. Baltimore could point back to these games with pride.

But that's not what I'm here to talk about...

*****

Bill Ordine continues to perpetuate the Mark Teixeira-may-come-to-Baltimore myth. Though he is hardly alone.

Let's set this straight. He's not coming and we don't want him! Not at $20mil per!

Tex doesn't want to come here. All that "Aw shucks, it's be great to play for the hometown team. Gawrsh, that'd be neat!" is just Tex being polite. Or being duplicitous. He says nice things about every team that shows the slightest interest.

An example from Buster Olney's ESPN blog:

"Inside the clubhouse, it was awkward. An hour before the game, with teammates in earshot, Teixeira gushed to reporters that the Angels were "the best team in baseball." While also being complimentary of his former teammates, it had a strange ring. Braves coaches recognized the situation and ushered Braves players into other areas of the clubhouse."

What a great guy. He'll say great things about whatever city he's asked about. Even at the expense of his current teammates.

More from Tex from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

"I thought I'd be here the rest of my career," he said of Atlanta. "I really wanted to stay here, but business is business, and it's time for me to move on."

Teixeira said he had been "open" to hearing offers from the Braves all season, but got none. Wren said the Braves didn't believe they could re-sign him after making an "aggressive" offer during spring training and having it rejected.

The GM said the offer would have made Teixeira one of the game's highest paid players. He is making $12.5 million this season in his last year of arbitration.

Let's see. You thought you'd spend the rest of your career here but rejected an offer from the Braves that would have made you one of the game's highest paid players. You need a shovel handy when Tex talks to the press.

The guy seems to think he's a player who is the caliber of Albert Pujols or A-Rod. He's not.

*****

Bye Roch. We'll miss you.

Our Enormous Bullpen

You know, there's nothing like beating up on the Yankees in New York to lift your spirits. you even get cool headlines on ESPN.com:

O's drill Yanks

I'm going to leave double entendre out of this one...

Mussina get's rocked, Guthrie pitches great and The Truth delivers his message of hope for the Orange and Black.

But that's not what I have come here to talk about today. It's our pitching staff.

We have only two starters in my estimation. Well, one and a half.

The one is Jeremy Guthrie. He is without a doubt our best starting pitcher. The half is Garrett Olson. He may be a good starter in time but he is far from a guarantee at this point.

The rest?

Daniel Cabrera - Only his ability to eat a few innings keeps him in the rotation. I have been fooled for the last time. He should be tried out in relief to salvage him but he is now through as a starter - Potential Setup Man

Brian Burres - I have harped on this before but Burres' future in the majors is in the bullpen. As a starter, he's been a failure. Only injuries to others has kept him in the rotation. - Swingman

Radhames Liz - He is young and was a bit rushed to the majors but even before he got here there were whispers among scouts that he may be better suited for relief. Now those whispers have grown to open conversation. Liz would be a crazy setup guy or maybe a closer but starter may not be where he projects. - Future Closer

You've got to love our bullpen this year and the prospects for next year. Randor Bierd, Jim Johnson, Chad Bradford, Jamie Walker, Dennis Sarfate, a healthy Chris Ray, Brian Burres, Rocky Cherry, Jim Miller, Bob McCrory...there's lots of options. It's deep and dynamic.

But who's going to start in 2009?

Matt Albers - I was really hoping Albers would get his shot but his season ending injury ended that thought. Look for him to compete for a spot in 2009.

Chris Tillman - Tillman is doing very well as a 20 year old in AA Bowie, much more than holding his own. He may not start the season in the rotation but he will be a quick callup in 2009.

Brad Bergesen - The 22 year-old Bergesen has been under the radar but has improved every year he has pitched in the organization. An extreme groundball pitcher, Bergesen is having a better season than Tillman in Bowie and demonstrates fabulous control. He is the type of pitcher who could make a leap to Baltimore next season but they may take it easy on him. ETA mid-2009.

Unfortunately, that's about all I could come up with. Anybody else with any ideas?

(edit: I guess the Orioles see Dennis Sarfate as an option..at least in the short term.)

Base Hits: 7/28/2008

OK, the Orioles finally broke their Sunday losing streak. Big deal.

A win is a win but they lost 5 straight coming into Sunday including three straight against Toronto. Toronto! The one AL East team that we are actually better than! Owww, quit it!

Nice to see a win but they are becoming few and far between. Excuse me if I don't celebrate.

*****

On a positive note, Ben at Oriole Central has a great interview with none other than Brian Roberts! Nice job Ben!

*****

You know you have a problem when you get your dander up about writers maligning a Baltimore Oriole from 110 years ago.

Chris Jaffe has written a two-part series where he rates the BBWA on their Hall of Fame selections and omissions for The Hardball Times. He had a problem with old-timey Oriole RF Wille Keeler:

That just leaves one man—Willie Keeler. He's way the hell back, behind (among others) Rusty Staub, Rocky Colavito, Elmer Flick, King Kelly and Sam Rice. Keeler was the sort of man who did one thing really well (hit singles), and that was about it. That's exactly the kind of guy who is normally overrated.

Keeler's a real oddity because he's the only 19th century position player they voted in. That makes his pick especially damning. If you're only going to put in one hitter from the 1890s, you damn well better get it right. They skipped over Ed Delahanty, Billy Hamilton, Hugh Duffy, Jesse Burkett and George Davis for him.

Going by runs created, Keeler was the 17th-best batter of the 1890s. Shortstop Bill Dahlen was 16th best. Wanna adjust for his not playing in 1890-1? Fine—he's still clearly not the best, yet he's the only one in. I'm more tolerant of their omissions from the Paleolithic Era, which is why a sin of commission from that time period is so bad. He's the only problem in right, though.

This is what it has come down to. Willie Keeler is overrated. Pardon me while I bang my head into the keyboard. vqwefop l;qw ecl;qwjk

I am a baseball stat nerd. But I am also a baseball nerd in general. You have to combine the nerdiness to understand Keeler as a player.

(Let me just say that I enjoy Chris Jaffe's writing immensely, I'm just going to strenuously differ with him on this point.)

First, let's look at the assertion that Keeler was the 17th best player in Runs Created during the 1890's. That's cherry-picking the numbers. Keller played well into the next decade. you are judged by your career not an arbitrary span of ten years (of which you did not even play in two of them...).

So using Jaffe's choice of stat, the leaders in Runs Created from 1890-1910 are here. Here's the top five:

                RC
Jesse Burkett  1566
Ed Delahanty   1520
Honus Wagner   1416
Willie Keeler  1378
Nap Lajoie     1351
 

Now, I'm sure that most of you aren't that familiar with turn of the century baseball stars but that is damn fine company for Keeler. 4th in baseball over a 20 year span is nothing to sneeze at.

You have to remember that Keeler played before the Deadball Era officially began. The ball was really dead in the 1890's. Keeler hit a lot of singles but that's what most of the best players did during this period in baseball. And he was a slap hitter and hit leadoff. You don't ask Tony Gwynn to jack homers!

The rest of the argument revolves around the writers not voting in Ed Delahanty. Very true that Delahanty was (and is) overlooked but that's hardly Keeler's fault.

Add to this that Keeler was considered the greatest rightfielder of his time and I think it's clear that Keeler is solidly deserving of the Hall of Fame. I mean, really.

*****

Roch Kubatko is leaving the Baltimore Sun according to his blog. I guess details will be forthcoming but he will be greatly missed and will leave a gaping hole in the Oriole blogosphere.

*****

Matt Wieters is coming. Not today, not tomorrow but soon. .333/.419/.519 at Bowie. Get to Bowie and see him so you can say "I was there when..."