A Few Quick Pictures...

...of some of the Norfolk Tides players from Tuesday's game. Some of these guys ended up in Baltimore this weekend and helped the team win the Toronto series.




Tides vs. Braves

Tides vs. Braves: 8/21/12

L.J. Hoes

The Norfolk Tides completely handled the Gwinnett Braves today in Lawrenceville, GA 8-0. Since I felt an acute case of baseball fever coming on this morning, I called out sick and went to the 10:35 AM start.

The Oriole highlights came early as former Dodger farmhand RF Jamie Hoffman launched a 3-run homer that just barely cleared the left field wall and Braves LF Jose Constanza's leap to give the Tides the 3-0 lead. CF L.J. Hoes' bases loaded single drove in two more in the 4th to give Norfolk the 5-0 lead and the game was pretty much over.

SP Dana Eveland gave up only 3 hits and struck out 5 over 7 innings and the Braves mounted no real threat at all. Braves' pitching issued 9 walks and walked in the other 3 Tide runs. Again, not the most exciting game to watch.

On to the individual performances, led by Hoes. He went 1-5 with a walk and reached on a fielder's choice that should have been a hit. He scorched a ball toward right field in the 6th inning but Braves 1B Ernesto Meija reached up and got his glove on it but it was hit too hard for him to hold. Hoffman was on 1st and had to hold up for a beat ot make sure Meija didn't catch the ball. If Hoffman would not have been on base, that would have been a hit for the speedy Hoes. Hoes had good at bats, worked the count and looked poised beyond his 22 years at the plate. He is hitting .369 in August and has maintained good walk rates throughout his minor league career.

RP Brian Matusz pitched the 8th inning. He gave up no runs but was unimpressive while walking one batter and striking out none. His fastball was missing up out of the zone and his breaking stuff was missing low and outside a lot. He got out of the inning with a couple of sharply hit ground balls that his fielders turned into outs but it was not hard to imagine major league hitter turning those mistakes into hits. He got himself into bad pitcher's counts on three of the four batters he faced. He may need more work.

2B Ryan Adams looks like I've seen him before. At the plate, he looked relaxed, worked the count and put the ball into play with authority. A great looking hitter and he is hitting .300 with 5 XBHs in August. In the field, he is not smooth and he made an error in the 7th.

I've never fully understood the enthusiasm for 1B Joe Mahoney. His walk rates are poor, his hit tool is OK and the value is wrapped up in his power as he slugged over .500 over the 2010-2011 in just over 200 games split between Frederick and Bowie. But that power has disappeared in Norfolk this season (.387 SLG in 120 games) and had trouble making solid contact today and could not manage a walk on a day when the G-Braves staff was giving them out freely. He'll be 26 next year and I guess the power could return. But if it doesn't, he's not going to have much value as a prospect.

3B Brandon Waring has hit 20 or more homers in every season he has played professionally. He walked twice today but his walk rates are just decent. His power is really, really impressive. Fun to watch but hard to imagine how he can help the major league club in the future.

The Oriole Rotation Suddenly in Limbo

Brian Matusz was hit by a line drive in today's simulated game and his status for Saturday's start is in jeopardy.

Brad Bergesen was struck in a similar fashion last week, albeit worse, by all reports.

That leaves Jeremy Guthrie, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta and Zach Britton as the only completely healthy starters just three days from Opening Day.

Justin Duchscherer is not due back until April 21st at the earliest. The situations for Matusz and Bergesen remain more cloudy. It is not known if either will be ready for their respective starts on Saturday and Sunday.

The fates seem to be conspiring to give Chris Tillman a spot in the rotation. Eliminating Zach Britton from the conversation (if Britton is sent to Norfolk, it won't be due to performance), Tillman has the lowest ERA of the spring and a quick calculation of FIP shows he has the second lowest FIP (4.29) behind Bergesen (4.20).

But Tillman, seemingly, wasn't given a real fair shake coming into Spring Training. He was behind Jake Arrieta in the competition for the rotation from the beginning. And even though he outpitched nearly everybody else, the organization was tyring to find any way to send him back to Norfolk. With Bergesen, Matusz and Duchscherer banged up (to varying degrees), Tillman may sneak into the rotation and get his shot after all.

The team does not need a fifth starter until April 10th. But Matusz and Bergesen would both have to be healthy to push Tillman to Norfolk. Tillman's going north. And he'd better take advantage of the situation if he wants to stay there.

The Crystal Ball 2011: Brian Matusz

Young Brian Matusz is the Orioles' best shot at having a true ace this season.

After a rough learning curve (he was, even by Andy MacPhail's admission, rushed to the majors in 2009), Matusz turned a corner in the second half. Second half numbers for the rotation:

            G HR BB SO SO/BB   ERA    WHIP
Guthrie    14 10 16 62  3.88  2.76   0.990
Matusz     14  7 25 63  2.52  3.63   1.194
Bergesen   15 15 28 57  2.04  3.94   1.261
Tillman     6  6 22 21  0.95  6.03   1.468
Arrieta    11  6 28 32  1.14  4.85   1.533

Guthrie had a great second half too but Matusz did it at age 23 which, of course, makes him more projectable going forward. He showed the talent and the toughness to be a top of the rotation starter.

In addition, he has been a little unlucky in his brief career in terms of the quality of his opponents. From Bill James Online:

More than 80% of Matusz starts in his career have come against winning clubs. That's a high number even taking into account that he pitches in the AL East. Oddly, he seems to do better as the competition gets tougher but that's probably due to small sample size and that's not really the point I'm getting at. The point is that Matusz has been given a very tough assignment in terms of quality of competition and having to learn on the job. It was a trial by fire and he seems to have come through it OK. This crucible will make him better going forward and his numbers will look better as he sees a more normal distribution of competition.

Oddly enough, his great changeup (hailed by most as his best pitch) doesn't seem to be getting guys out like you would expect. According to FanGraphs.com, his changeup actually has a negative value. His best pitches are his fastball and slider. Maybe he's pitching backwards? Using his changeup to set up the fastball and his breaking stuff? 

Regardless, after Adam Jones, Matusz is my pick to breakout in 2011. He's using every weapon in arsenal, he's made it past the early bumps in the road while facing the toughest possible competition and he will be just 24. 

I don't want to say it (although when you look at the competition, maybe this isn't such fantastic praise) but Matusz looks poised to be the best pitcher to come through the Oriole system since Mike Mussina. 

True Value of AL Rookies

As you know by now, Brian Matusz came in tied for 5th in the 2010 AL Rookie of the Year voting. Not that it matters much but Matusz probably deserved better.

I don't care too much about the postseason awards but wanted to chime in on Matusz's behalf in regards to his value over the other candidates. WAR rankings of the seven rookies to appear on the ballot

                  WAR (Baseball-Reference.com)  WAR (Fangraphs.com)
Brian Matusz                3.1                           2.7
Austin Jackson              2.5                           3.8
Danny Valencia              2.5                           2.7
Neftali Feliz               2.4                           1.7
John Jaso                   2.4                           2.5
Wade Davis                  1.8                           0.8
Brennan Boesch              1.3                           0.6
 

Matusz was right up there with Austin Jackson as the best rookie in the American League with a nod to Twins SS Danny Valencia as well.

In addition, Matusz finished the season strong. His numbers for August and September:

             IP     BB    K   HR   ERA   FIP   W-L
Matusz      62.0    16   52    5  2.18  3.34  10-1 

Awards aside, I'll take Brian Matusz over Netali Feliz seven days a week. His future looks brighter and he's already more valuable.

New Faces, New Places

Lots going on in Birdland over the last 24 hours. First and foremost, is the hiring of new manager Buck Showalter. Showalter was probably choice 1a for me; I liked Eric Wedge a lot but evidently Andy MacPhail and I were the only ones. Reportedly, Peter Angelos liked Showalter a lot and the lengthy negotiation with him was in part to define Buck's role and how he would work with MacPhail.

It's probably a good thing for Showalter to take over before the end of this miserable season. Showalter and his staffs have a pretty good track record of talent evaluation and development and the more time Buck has to evaluate the big league roster and the September call-ups, the better.

Shortly after the Showalter announcement, the Orioles traded 3B Miguel Tejada to the Padres for a pitching prospect. Tejada was considered (correctly) expendable with Josh Bell sitting in Norfolk and garnered the team a fair, but not great, pitching prospect in Wynn Pelzer. Pelzer projects as a reliever but that's decent value for old man Tejada.

By the way, can the current regime come to an end soon enough? From the Baltimore Sun, Brian Matusz talks about the quick hook he received in Thursday's game:

"I was little bit shocked because it was so soon, and my first few innings I was so effective,” Matusz said. “Things were going so well. I still felt pretty good at that point. I was a little upset. Obviously nobody likes coming out of the game, especially when you have good stuff and that’s how I felt. Juan obviously felt that it was a game that we had, we had the lead at the time, and I wasn’t capable of finishing the job, so that was the move he decided to make and obviously I wanted to stay in there and keep going. But if I don’t like it I need to stop walking guys and pitch better.”


Hi there. Out of character for me but I'm about to curse...

Matusz is being just about as diplomatic as he can here but he's absolutely correct. Sure, if he didn't walk those guys, this problem takes care of itself. But Samuel (and Showalter) need to leave these kids in the game for experience, struggles be damned. Wins and losses mean fuck all for 2010. Samuel is managing for a win over the Royals at the expense of valuable innings for a potential future ace? What a cock. I have no doubt that this has at least a little to do with the Showalter announcement and the fact that Samuel is out for himself for these last four games.

From Samuel:

Samuel said after the game that Matusz has become a “major concern,” though he still expects the lefty to make his next start.



“My mindset with these guys is I just didn’t want to put them in position where they could lose the ball game and you end up overexposing these guys,” Samuel said. “We’ve seen it so many times where some young guys come up and they can’t find the plate. Like I said, if I can remove these guys earlier than late, I’m going to do it just so I can protect them. He was throwing the ball so good. We just think he lost focus there for one minute and we didn’t want to leave him out there any longer.”

Major concern? Douchebag, you are not going to be the manager by the time Matusz starts again. It's no longer your concern at all.

And then you show your ignorance by worrying about Matusz "losing" the game. You are managing the worst team in baseball. Matusz is smart enough to realize that even moral victories count at this point. He didn't want to come out. He didn't care if he "lost". He wanted to battle through it. That kid is ten times smarter than you and your slavish reliance on meaningless stats like pitcher "wins" and "losses". Especially on a team that is 30+ games out of first! You prick. You were protecting no one.

Tuesday can't come soon enough...

Around The Oriole Blog-O-Sphere: Meltdown Edition

Go get 'em, Wiggy!

*****

Dan at Camden Crazies makes me feel a bit better about Brian Matusz:

The 1.49 WHIP is high but most of that is all the hits he’s allowed (1.11 hits per inning pitched), and that’s based on a .332 Batting Average On Balls In Play that isn’t likely to continue at that level and has less to do with Matusz’s pitching than his defense and poor luck. Additionally, I’m not sure how a 123:54 strike-out to walk ratio is “clearly indicative of a problem”. At 2.27, it’s better than league average (~2.07), and his individual K and BB rates are also better than average.

And while he's at it, Dan give Stan "The Fan" Charles a good fisking and I can always get behind that.


*****

 Tony Pente's article at Oriole Hangout is up and pretty much sums up the failures of the Angelos regime over the past couple of decades.

I have to say that I was a bit disappointed. It all seemed like covered ground and it was kind of advertised as having new revelations. It was all lightly fleshed out items of whisperings I have heard before. But it is well written and makes for a one-stop shop for all things Angelos.

*****

Eutaw Street Hooligans express Oriole fandom in terms of Bill Withers.

*****

Camden Depot looks at the "mortgaged future" of 1996 and fisks and refutes some guy writing in Cumberland. Go crawdaddy.

Quick quote I wholeheartedly agree with:

I am certain it is true that this is a mind blowingly silly statement (especially after the writer already said the system was ignored for at least a decade prior to the deals in '96, which is very true).

 Word.

*****

Roar from 34 gives us the latest installment of Solo Shots, a series examining Oriole players who hit exactly one home run during their career, with a closer look at Bob Hale.

*****

The Loss Column knows that it is all about next year for the Orioles but wonders if 2011 will be a make ir break year for the MacPhail regime.

*****

Patrick Smith at Bugs & Cranks takes a swipe at ESPN's Mike Greenberg for taking a swipe at the Baltimore Orioles.

*****

Finally, rumor has it that the Orioles are fielding calls regarding OF Corey Patterson. Obviously, you move Patterson for anything that might resemble a viable future bullpen arm and count your blessings that you were able to sell high.

5 Biggest Disappointments for the 2010 Baltimore Orioles

The problems with the Orioles in 2010 have been multifold. But some of the season's disappointments have been greater than the others and contributed more to this disappointing season than the others. After some examination, here are the depressing top 5.

5.  Brian Roberts' Injury

Although many of us bloggers raised red flags when the Orioles signed Brian Roberts to a 4-year, $40 million extension last season (some of us, before the fact), I don't think any of us expected age and/or injury to start catching up to Roberts so fast.

Roberts being sidelined early in the season with a variety of back problems hobbled the Orioles' struggling offense even more as a brutal rotation of leadoff hitters tried desperately to fill in. Oriole leadoff hitters have combines for a .302 OBP and .645 OPS.

Roberts could return as early as this weekend but fans have to wonder about his durability and effectiveness as he plays through the 3.5 years left on his contract.


4. Adam Jones' Glove

Adam Jones has had his struggles at the plate this season but has come around of late and, I feel, he'll be just fine in the long run at the plate. Despite his Gold Glove last season, Jones is not showing a great glove in center. He plays shallow and repeatedly let's balls go over his head. He takes bad routes on balls. He sometimes misplays the routine.

Jones, in terms of UZR, is the 3rd worst fielding centerfielder in baseball. UZR does not always tell the whole story, especially for partial seasons, but last season he has the third worst UZR/150 among regular centerfielders as well.

The most frustrating thing about this is that Jones has all the tools: great speed, great leaping ability, an arm that rivals that of Nick Markakis. But he just hasn't put it together in the field this season.


3. Nolan Reimold

After a breakout year in which he forced himself onto the Baltimore roster way ahead of schedule, Nolan Reimold fell off a cliff. Hitting .279/.365/.466 over 104 games during his rookie campaign, Reimold attracted serious Rookie of the Year consideration before having to have surgery on his Achilles tendon toward the end of the season.

I don't believe that Reimold was completely healthy to start the season as he hit an anemic .205/.302/.337 with Baltimore before a May 12th demotion. But being back in Norfolk has not helped matters as he has only .212/.303/.335 since his return and shows no sign of coming around. Reimold has been playing some first base for the Tides and, perhaps, if he is fully healthy in 2011, he could still fulfill some of that promise while filling a need for Baltimore. But that looks like a real longshot at this point.


2. Brian Matusz

Continuing the theme of disappointing young talent, Brian Matusz has yet to become the staff ace that he was predicted to be when he was promoted to Baltimore late last season. Sure, he was a bit rushed to the majors and, sure, I expected him to struggle a bit at the beginning of the season. But as the most polished member of "the Calvary", I thought Matusz would have started showing some life by now. He hasn't.

Matusz's changeup, his best pitch, gets hit pretty hard. His strikeouts are down and walks are up, neither to a great degree but they aren't moving in the right direction. Granted, his FIP and xFIP are significantly better than his 5.21 ERA. But while Tillman, Arrieta and Bergesen were kind of expected to scuffle through this season, Matusz was expected to be a respectable pitcher by now. He's not and he needs help to get there.


1. Matt Wieters

The most highly touted catching prospect since Joe Mauer, one of the most praised minor league bats of all time, one of the few prospects that basically had no criticism from any scout or analyst about his offensive game, Matt Wieters has been a anemic bat in the Oriole lineup. After a torrid September, many were predicting a breakout season for Wieters (including me). Predictions called for average, power and great control of the strike zone. It hasn't happened.

Only Jason Kendall, Yadier Molina and Russell Martin have lower ISO's among catchers. Ditto for average. Only A.J. Pierzynski has a lower OBP.

Were all the scouts wrong? I don't think so (or at least, I hope not). But Wieters' struggles are the latest indictment of Terry Crowley's work with young hitters. Jones hasn't advanced much. Wieters has struggled. Reimold floundered. It seems that hitters develop in spite of Crowley rather than because of him.

Wieters needs help to get his head back on straight. A new coaching staff could do wonders for that.

Rick Dempsey talks with Brian Matusz

via MASN.

I really enjoyed this. Matusz talks breaking pitches, pickoff moves and his relationship with Matt Wieters. Hopefully, we'll look back on this video fondly in about 10 years...





BTW Camden Depot tweeted that Mark Viviano is reporting that Dave Trembley will be fired after today's game in New York and Juan Samuel will take over. We shall see..

Matusz in Trouble? Look a Little Deeper...

The Baltimore Sun's Toy Department has a new post up this morning voicing concern over rookie pitcher Brian Matusz:

The young lefty looks confused out on the mound, never more so than in the first inning of the Orioles 6-1 loss to the Oakland A's Wednesday.

He gave up four runs in that inning -- including Adam Rosales' three-run homer -- marking the second straight time he's been roughed up in the first inning.

And he's starting to take on that bewildered look that Brad Bergesen wore a few weeks ago when nothing he did was working....

"I am just in a bad groove," Matusz told reporters after the game.

The truth is, there are a lot of players in that clubhouse in a bad groove right now.

But the Orioles can't afford to have Matusz stuck in that groove for too long.

Not if he's one of their building blocks for the future.

Which is fine and all but the truth is that Brian Matusz is pitching pretty well, his mainstream stats (2-5, 5.76 ERA) notwithstanding.

His FIP is fine (3.80 and an improvement over his 4.08 FIP form last year) and his xFIP is 4.63. These numbers aren't stellar but they are better than his ERA suggests.

Other peripherals: 7.41 K/9, 3.29 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9; those are all respectable, especially for a rookie. The 1.63 WHIP is not good...but his BABIP stands at .370. There's no way that doesn't come down. His LD% of 21.2% does not support that BABIP and even though he has been a fly ball pitcher thus far his 32.8% ground ball rate is slightly better than last year.

Matusz's defense isn't doing him (or the other pitchers) any favors either. Ty Wigginton, for all his success at the plate, has been the second worst second baseman in the league in terms of UZR. Miguel Tejada is below average. Nick Markakis and Adam Jones are not living up to their defensive reps and whoever the Orioles stick in left turns into a butcher with the glove. Only Cesar Izturis is pulling his weight in the field.

Are there things Matusz can work on? Sure. Is he as bad as his ERA suggests? Absolutely not.

I'm not going to hit the panic button 18 starts into his career.

And regardless of what The Toy Department might think, the Orioles can definitely afford "bad groove" Matusz. He won't get any better if you don't let him pitch.

Photo used under Creative Commons via Keith Allison.

Young Starters, The Bullpen and Perspective

The losing streak is making people mental. Even the beat reporters. This is what Peter Schmuck wrote following Saturday's game:

Though I understand the logic of removing Brian Matusz from tonight's game after he allowed two baserunners in the seventh inning, I've reached the point -- and I bet Matusz agrees with me -- where I believe he deserves a chance to get out of that jam. Once again, a pitcher gets taken out because he hit the magic 100-pitch count, but I thought the idea was to make these guys go farther into the game.

The fact that Matusz walked a guy and gave up a hit doesn't mean that he's not the best guy to pitch to the next batter, especially when the O's bullpen has given Dave Trembley little reason to be confident that the game isn't about to blow up in his face -- as it did again tonight....

It isn't Trembley's fault that the bullpen can't nail down a game, but at some point he's going to have to find out if Matusz is good enough to get out of a late-inning jam. If not tonight, then when?

I'm not picking on Schmuck; others on the Orioles beat expressed similar sentiments if not so stridently. And I would expect this kind of emotional reaction from the fans.

But Pete, calm down.

I'm a big fan of the "one more batter" technique. A guy's approaching his "pitch limit" at the end of the 6th, let him come out for "one more batter" to see what happens. If he gets that guy out, let him face "one more batter". Continue until he gives up a solid hit or walks somebody. It stretches out the pitcher a bit but doesn't put the guy in a position to hurt the team if he's gassed.

Dave Trembley did that on Saturday. He brought Matusz back out for "one more batter" and Matusz walked him. Trembley left him out for "one more batter" again and gave up a hit. He gave Matusz the opportunity to work into the 7th and he didn't quite have it. Going to the bullpen at that point was not an incorrect decision...people just didn't like the outcome.*

But the real issue here is Matusz and his development. I will ALWAYS side with the philosophy that errs on the side of caution when it comes to developing young starters. There's just too much at stake in pushing a potential ace like Matusz too far, too fast.

What would the O's have gotten out of it if they had left Matusz out there for 120 pitches and won the game? Get to 3-15 instead of 2-16? Whoopee. That's worth a gamble? Uh, thanks but no thanks. It's that kind of short term thinking that has plagued the Orioles' player development for more than a decade and has gotten poor results more often than not.

I thought this team could (and may still) make a run at .500 but the reality is that they're not getting the breaks they need. And even that goal is not worth rushing prospects or pushing young arms before they're ready.

Let's not forget that.

*Of course, I don't get pitching Matt Albers two straight games when Jason Berken and Cla Meredith are rotting on the bench. Albers has been fine this season outside of two outings...both came after they tried pitching him on back-to-back days. There are other arms in the bullpen that seem underutilized.

Anatomy of a Streak-Breaker

Courtesy of FanGraphs.com:




As you would expect, Ty Wigginton was the offensive hero with .252 WPA for the game, a total that will rank among the best of the year. Nick Markakis chipped in with a .092 WPA. Brian Matusz had .108 WPA with 6.1 IP and Jim Johnson, a recent goat, kicked in .062 WPA in 2 innings of relief.

Can the winning continue? Maybe. But the injuries hurt, pun unintended.

OF Felix Pie, 2B Brian Roberts and likely 3B Miguel Tejada will miss the series with Seattle. That hurts the struggling offense. But if there's one offense on the level of Baltimore's, it's the Mariners.

Seattle has only scored 3 more runs than the O's and that's good news for Brad Bergesen. If he can't get back on track in a pitcher's park (Safeco) against a punchless lineup (only 5 homers all season), then he may never get it back.

The bottom line is that the O's have a puncher's chance in this series.

As a bonus, you'll get to see 2B Justin Turner (perhaps a player in the middle infield for Baltimore in 2011) and OF Lou Montanez (who has been buried in Norfolk by Baltimore's infield depth). Yeah, that won't help the W-L ledger but I've been curious to see how Turner will handle big league pitching and all those "Sweet Lou" worshippers should come out of the woodwork to hope that Lou shows enough to at least be trade fodder in July.

I'm sure you're all sick of my sunny optimism by now but...Let's Go O's!

Baby Birds Make Yet Another Top Prospect List

Baseball America released their 2010 Top 100 Prospects List and four Orioles made the list. LHP Brian Matusz (5), 3B Josh Bell (37), LHP Zach Britton (63) and RHP Jake Arrieta (99) all made the list.

A couple of notes from Jim Callis' "top tools" column...

Zach Britton (Orioles) doesn't dazzle on the radar gun like Strasburg, Feliz or Chapman, but his 88-92 mph fastball stood out for our panel, who anointed it the best sinker in the minors. It's a heavy pitch with late sink and run, and Britton can carry the life on his sinker into the late innings as a starter. He had a 3.4 groundout/airout ratio last year, when he was the high Class A Carolina League pitcher of the year as a 20-year-old....

The top changeup artists all stand out for their well-rounded repertoires. Brian Matusz (Orioles) has lived up to his billing as the top pitcher in the 2008 draft thanks to his plus-plus changeup—as well as his curveball and slider, both of which drew votes as ranking among the best in the minors, and a low-90s fastball that touches 95.

So the O's have the prospects with the best sinker and the best changeup. There has never been a time in my fandom when the Orioles has had so much nationally acclaimed talent in their system.

So we got that going for us. Which is nice.

Help Me, Oriole Rotation. You're My Only Hope.

An Open Letter to the Oriole Starting Five:

Hi guys. It's closing in on Spring Training and Baltimore fans are full of (cautious, admittedly) optimism and hope. Young prospects are on the rise, national media are picking Baltimore to be much improved and even projection systems like PECOTA have the Birds within the margin of error for a winning season.

But I know the truth. This team only goes as far as you five gentlemen take us. The offense is good but not good enough to outslug the Yanks, Sox or maybe even the Rays. No, we need pitching and we need plenty of it to succeed. The good news is, you won't have big shoes to fill. The starting rotation on Opening Day was Alfredo Simon, Koji Uehara, Mark Hendrickson, Adam Eaton and Jeremy Guthrie. Jeremy, you are the only one who remains.

Each of you have a job to do and the Baltimore faithful beg you to do it well.

Kevin Millwood, we know your best days are probably behind you. While you are the de facto ace, nobody expects you to be anything better than league average. We need you to be Rick Sutcliffe circa 1992. You remember the Red Baron, don't you? He came to Baltimore late in his career to help anchor a staff of young hurlers (Mussina, McDonald, Rhodes) and for the first half of the season pitched like the Sutcliffe of old. OK, not like 1984 Sutcliffe but he went 12-6 over the first half of the season with a 4.13 ERA. He finished the season as a slightly below average pitcher in terms of ERA but for half of 1992 (and then some) he was a hero. He helped lead the Orioles, who had lost 97 games in 1991, to an 89 win season in 1992. More importantly, he bought time for the kid pitchers to develop and stabilized the rotation.

You can be that hero, Kevin. I know former Braves have not fared well in Charm City (Javy Lopez, Leo Mazzone, B.J. Surhoff v2.0) but this is a different era, an era of hope and resurrection. Seize the day and perhaps the Orioles will relax facial hair policies for you too.

Jeremy Guthrie, the Orioles claimed off of waivers three seasons ago and you went out of the frying pan and into the fire. 2009 was rough on you. You gave up a league high 35 homers. But that won't happen again because deep down, you are a groundball pitcher with enough of a fastball to strike batters out. Don't give in and keep the ball down in the zone. You finally have help. A veteran to eat innings, kids behind you who will pitch better as the season wears on. You are battle tested, sir. No pitcher in baseball has faced the fearsome lineups you have faced more often over the last three seasons.

We don't need you to try to be the ace anymore. We just need your innings, we just need your experience, we just need your spirit. Just keep the ball in the park and let your defense do the rest.

Brad Bergesen. You were labeled a AAAA pitcher. You were not supposed to have the stuff to pitch in the AL East. You were not supposed to be in the rotation in 2009. But you were and you were the best of the rotation last season.

You're a groundball machine. You walk no one. Nobody's getting a cheap hit off of you. According to The Bill James Handbook, you might just be the best fielding pitcher in the American League. You have the best chance of any of the starters to hit 200 innings pitched like Guthrie did last year. You're a fan favorite already and everyone is pulling for you to succeed. Like it or not, you're the underdog and everyone loves the underdog. Just keep it up. Please.

Brian Matusz, I have not had so much fun watching a guy pitch since Mike Mussina donned the orange & black. You have four pitches and you command them all extremely well. So on any count, you are likely to throw any of them. It reminds me of Mussina throwing his knuckle-curve on a 3-2 count, buckling the batter's knees and ringing up the K. You are that kind of talent. I can see you tying the hitters up in knots, mentally and physically with each successive at bat.

You are to inherit the "ace" tag for Baltimore and become the best Baltimore pitcher since the aforementioned Mussina. The rotation is relying more on your success than on any other individual pitcher. But the scouts love you and I think you may be due for a great leap forward in 2010.

Chris Tillman, it was not pretty during your 12 major league starts in 2009. A 5.40 ERA and lots of walks. But at the age of 21, you had nothing left to prove in the minors. You destroyed the International League posting a 2.70 ERA and 99 strikeouts in 96 innings for AAA Norfolk. It was your time. It is your time.

But just relax. No one is expecting you to be anything more than the 5th best starter for the Orioles in 2010. But I saw you in AAA. Your fastball moved and you mixed you pitches well. In Baltimore, you overthrew and that fastball flattened out. No need to throw through a brick wall. The baseball is an egg. Hold it like and egg. And by the end of the season, you may just start to show flashes of the ace potential you brought with you from the Seattle organization.

So don't believe the hype. If the Orioles are to surprise the league this season, it won't be because they signed Miguel Tejada and Garrett Atkins, it will be because the five of you.

Now let's go O's!

Base Hits: Talking (Speaking) Baseball

With all the Derek Jeter record-breaking hoopla, you may have missed the fact that Ichiro broke Willie Keeler's 108 year old record for consecutive 200 hit seasons when he made 2009 his ninth.

But the press generally doesn't mention the team Keeler's played for and when they do, like Yahoo! Sports' David Brown, they only get it half right.

With another 200 in the hit bank, Ichiro surpasses a Hall of Famer who has one of the more famous nicknames in baseball history, "Wee" Willie Keeler, who did it from 1894-1901 for the Brooklyn Dodgers franchise.

That's only half true. In fact, it's only 3/8 true because Keeler only spent three of those eight seasons with Brooklyn. He spent the first five seasons of the streak (and his career) with the old National League Baltimore Orioles.

Just giving credit where credit is due.

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Speaking of records broken, a guy named Jeter moved to 53rd on the all-time hit list and this got a lot of attention. OK, he's now the Yankee hit king. But as you can see in this report I created at BaseballReference.com, Jeter is also the all-time Yankee leader in outs.

Where was ESPN as he approached that hallowed milestone?

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Speaking of the Yankees, the O's take the weekend series! This bodes well for Baltimore avoiding 100 losses. The toughest part of the September/October schedule is over. The rest of the season leaves only three games against the Red Sox. The rest of the schedule is Rays, Jays and Indians. The Indians stink. The Jays are not good. The Rays have turned back into a pumpkin and have lost 11 straight.

The O's went 4-6 against the toughest part of their schedule. It still won't all be pretty but I feel a lot better about it than I did a week or two ago.

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Speaking of the weekend series, Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman got the wins over the Yanks. The last two rookie pitchers to defeat the Yankees in New York in the same series? Bob Milacki and Dave Johnson on August 26th and 27th, 1989. Why not, indeed.

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Speaking of rookie pitchers, the Orioles are leaning towards shutting Brian Matusz down for the season and are expected to make a decision today. Caution is probably the best prescription for this team.

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Speaking of Brian Matusz, he was ranked #4 on Baseball America's year end Prospect Hot Sheet. Matusz impressed at all levels in 2009.

Base Hits: September Plans, Andy Pettitte and The Oriole Advocates

Lots of stuff in this Dan Connolly/Jeff Zreibec notebook entry for The Baltimore Sun.

First, Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman will only make 2-3 more starts before being shut down for the season. It may be ugly on the field but given their youth and the fact that the future of the rotation hinges on these guys, I think that's a prudent move.

Second, Brad Bergesen will not return this season. I was watching as the line drive rocketed off his leg and he limped, hopped, stumbled and ultimately collapsed in the tunnel heading toward the locker room. I figured that he would not be back at that moment...damn Oriole luck. And although I am generally an optimist, consider this; an unconventional control pitcher like Bergesen needs everything to go right for him to have success and a lot of that comes from a repeatable delivery. Chien-Ming Wang was one of the best pitchers in the AL for a couple seasons, hurt his leg and was never the same. Cross you fingers for Mr. Bergesen.

Chris Waters and Chris Lambert will be recalled from Norfolk to pick up the leftover starts. Buy your blindfolds now.

Speaking of blindfolds, Alberto Castillo, Matt Albers and Dennis Sarfate are being recalled today to provide "relief" for the overworked bullpen. For some reason, I like all these guys enormously. If they had recalled Bob McCrory, they would have been my full set of "favorite marginal big league relievers" that keep bouncing back and forth from Norfolk (or the DL) to Baltimore. All are flawed but I can't shake the feeling that they will all contribute to the success of the Oriole bullpen next season.

Norfolk pitching coach and former Oriole hurler Mike Griffin will finish out the season in Baltimore once IL play wraps up. Interesting...

Good to see Screech coming back to Baltimore. He's put together a fantastic season at Norfolk and I love to see guys rewarded who hang in there and overcome adversity in the minors.

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Speaking of overcoming adversity, former Oriole top pick Darnell McDonald has been playing for the Reds this season and hit his first major league homer last week against the Brewers.

McDonald was sent down in May but was called up a week ago and has been tearing it up. It probably won't last and he probably won't stick but it's nice to see a guy ride the buses for 12 years and finally get some limelight.

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It's rare that a New York sports reporter would write a thoughtful, informed piece about the Baltimore Orioles without a hint of arrogance or indifference. But Tyler Kepner has done just that.

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Mark Teixeira article on being booed at OPACY:

"The 29-year-old, who once listened to Camden Yards fans call him out for wearing a Don Mattingly T-shirt, said that the jeers in this ballpark don't register. "

Still waiting for photographic evidence of Teixeira wearing a Don Mattingly t-shirt. That sight must have been more elusive than the Loch Ness monster...

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By the way, I consider Jerry Hairston's botched play on an Adam Jones grounder to spoil Andy Pettitte's perfect game bid a cosmic universal shoutout to the club that drafted him.

And no, I didn't want to see a perfect game. Not by him, not against my team, not in Baltimore. The less Yankee celebrating in Charm City, the better. Hell, I would've been OK if Trembley had somebody lean into one to spoil it.

And can we stop it with the "near perfection" crap already. He didn't even make it into the 8th with a no-hit bid. That old man wasn't throwing a perfect game...he didn't even come that close.

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How have The Oriole Advocates escaped my attention for so long? Among many other things, they created the O's Dugout Club, a product which I have actively endorsed. Lots of other cool stuff at the site. I wonder if they would accept members from the Oriole Diaspora?

Base Hits: Roberts Chases Himself, The Bryce Harper Sweepstakes and Minor Opinions

One of the bright spots for the Orioles in 2009 (and for the decade) has been Brian Roberts. Roberts struck his 46th double in Tampa last night and is well on pace to break his club record of 51. The top seasons for doubles:

              2B
Roberts '08    51
Tejada '05     50
Roberts '04    50
Huff '08       48
Markakis '08   48
Ripken '83     47
Roberts '09    46
Ripken '91     46
Roberts '04    45
Markakis '07   43

Something to watch in September besides the standings...

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Sad but true, the Orioles are actually in the running for the Bryce Harper sweepstakes. Follow the standings daily at Raise the Jolly Roger.

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Feel the love.

Aubrey Huff has been absolutely glowing about the Baltimore Orioles since he was traded. Some quotes:

"I've grown close to a lot of staff, and especially a lot of players on this team. It's definitely emotional. I've seen all these young guys come up and I've had a great time with all these young guys....

"I want to thank Andy for the opportunity to come here and play all these years, and the whole staff. Dave's been great, all the players have been awesome, and I'm really going to miss it... I really enjoyed my time here."

Reportedly Andy MacPhail is open to the idea of Huff returning next year and on XM MLB Home Plate yesterday, Huff was again glowing in his praise of his time with Baltimore.

Could Huff be in Baltimore in 2010? If the price was right, I wouldn't be surprised.

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I was browsing through Baseball America and saw some Oriole minor leaguers honored. Here's some of them.

In a survey of Carolina League managers (A+):

Best Pitching Prospect: Brian Matusz

Best Breaking Pitch: Brian Matusz

Best Reliever: Luis Lebron

In a survey of Eastern League managers (AA):

Best Pitching Prospect: Brian Matusz

Best Changeup: Brian Matusz
Best Defensive Outfielder: Jonathan Tucker

In a survey of International League managers (AAA):

Best Power Prospect: Nolan Reimold

Best Breaking Pitch: Chris Tillman

Best Reliever: Kam Mickolio

Best Defensive 1B: Michael Aubrey

Brian Matusz got noticed a bit, huh?

Nice to see Kam Mickolio on the list too.

Base Hits: 8/6/2009

Jeremy Guthrie pitched well in Detroit last night but gave up his 27th homer of the season last night. It's the first week of August but Guthrie is only 8 homers short of the club record. Once he reached the top ten, I guess we'll have to put up a Guthrie Homer-meter on the site.

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Quick thought on Brian Matusz: Gnarly.

Matusz looked as polished as Brad Bergesen with better stuff. He had control of all four of his pitches and looks to be here to stay. Yeah, yeah, it's only one start and I'm the king of warning of "small sample sizes" but I'm calling it now. He's here to stay.

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Speaking of Matusz and Oriole rookie starters, FanGraphs has two articles on new Oriole hurlers. Dave Cameron looks at Chris Tillman's fastball location and his propensity for giving up fly balls and Erik Manning uses PitchFx to analyze Matusz's major league debut.

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Melvin Mora's line since his meltdown: .111/.111/.222.

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Almost as encouraging as Brian Matusz's performance on Tuesday night was the performance of Chris Ray in relief. 2.2 IP, 2 Ks, 1 BB, 1 hit, 0 runs.

Ray could be an enormous part of the bullpen in 2010 if he is actually able to come back...

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Some of Matusz's former Keys teammates will be in Baltimore next Monday to heckle the rookie pitcher.

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Erik Bedard is going for an MRI on his shoulder and the fans of Seattle are not too thrilled about it.

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The Bowling Green View interviews one of their alumni, Oriole outfielder Nolan Reimold.

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Former big league outfielder Doug Glanville is a smart guy and make some good observations on some recent steroid revelations in The New York Times.

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Shysterball offers up some good guidelines for ethical blogging.

Base Hits: 7/16/2009

It's the traditional midseason point so let's look back at my pre-season predictions!

"I hate the Hayden Penn trade. We could have just kept Jolbert Cabrera if we needed a fourth bench player. I'd rather fail with a 24-year old pitcher than with a bunch of retreads or never-were's like Eaton, Simon and Hendrickson. So my first prediction is that Penn turns out to be way more useful to the Marlins than Robert Andino will be to Baltimore."

Hayden Penn posted in 7.77 ERA in 16 games for the Marlins and was sent to New Orleans about 6 weeks ago and has only posted a 4.50 ERA since he got back to AAA.

Andino has not been great but his slick fielding came in handy when Cesar Izturis went down with an injury. So far, dead wrong about this one.

"Alfredo Simon is out of the rotation by the end of May. He won't be with the big club by July."

Well, Simon was out of the rotation by the end of April but because of injury instead of ineffectiveness. He did suck though. So I'll call this one correct.

"Matt Wieters is here in May."

Nailed it.

"Brad Bergeson is here in July."

Beregesen came up in April due to the Simon injury but he would have forced his way into the rotation by May anyway. He's ahead of where I thought he would be. I'll call this one a push.

"Brian Matusz is here is September."

Matusz dominated A+ Frederick and is dominating AA Bowie. A September call-up looks to be in his future. So far, so good.

"The Orioles win 72 games."

The O's are on pace for 66 wins. They would have to go 32-42 to reach 72 wins this season. Not impossible but for now, I've overestimated the team.

(edit: A commenter named Brett has pointed out that I made a miscalculation; 40-48 is good for a 73 win pace. So I was close...)

"Lou Montanez won't OPS better than .750 at any level...unless he goes back to Bowie."

Montanez posted a 1.000 OPS in AAA Norfolk...but in only 10 games. In 18 games in Baltimore he put up a .6s0 OPS. Montanez is hurt but I'm correct on this one.

"Nick Markakis OPS's .900+"

Whew. I had this one wrong. Barring a white hot second half, Markakis will be lucky to reach an .800 OPS, let alone .900. So much for the Markakis breakout season.

"Felix Pie gets better in the second half."

He couldn't be much worse. But will he even get an opportunity in Baltimore?

Adam Jones hits 20+ home runs.

A couple months ago, this looked like a slam dunk but a recent homerless draught put the goal in question. Jones has 12 homers and should be able to reach 20 with little problem.

Luke Scott and Ty Wigginton provide the best Oriole platoon since...well, in a very long time.

Wigginton and Scott haven't had a straight platoon at all (no surprise) but Wigginton hasn't hit lefties well (his forte before this season) and and Scott has crushed lefties that he hasn't hit well in previous seasons. It's like Scott stole Wigginton's soul. Dead wrong.

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Baseball America's Hot Sheet, which ranks recent performances of minor league prospects, ranks Brian Matusz #1 and Chris Tillman #3. That's pretty cool.

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I don't think Dave Trembley's job is in jeopardy and it seems like Jeff Zrebiec is trying to create a story where there is none. I'm not sure what makes this column any better than idle speculation on any blog or message board. You expect a little bit more from a real "journalist"; Zrebiec didn't even bother to go as far an Ken Rosenthal and get an anonymous source.

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Fort Myers is looking less and less like the next home of Oriole Spring Training. Staying put in Ft. Lauderdale?

(edit: It looks like the Sarasota deal is back from the dead...)

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Steve Melewski has the rundown on Bowie reliever Ryohei Tanaka.

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He's been kind of overshadowed with all the other talented pitchers in the Oriole farm system but RHP Tim Bascom has rebounded from a bad 2008 season in Frederick to pitch extremely well for the Keys and now the Bowie Baysox. Bascom has struck out 57 against only 23 walks in 90.3 innings pitched between those teams. He's not dominating but it's not difficult to see him in Norfolk's rotation in 2010 and perhaps in Baltimore (either starting or relieving) in 2011.

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Adam Loewen is posting a .243/.348./.696 line at high A Dunedin. However, in the last month he is posting a .304/.424/.464 line and .364/.440/.591 over the last 7 days. In other words, he's trending up as a hitter.

Jerk.

Base Hits: 6/17/2009

Technically, it was a quality start for Jeremy Guthrie but sloppy play behind him doomed the Orioles in a very winnable game. What does Ty Wigginton have to do to get off the bench against a lefty pitcher?

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Wanted to give some more draft news since John Sickels put his evaluation of Baltimore's draft up last week:

Baltimore: I don't have a problem with Hobgood at fifth overall. He's signable, and in my opinion the difference between him and the other elite prep arms isn't all that great. He might not be as projectable as some of them, being more physically mature, but I really like his arm and I don't think this is a huge overdraft....Randy Henry in the fourth round and Ashur Tolliver in the fifth provide more live arms, Tolliver in particular being a good value in that round. 8th round pick OF Devin Harris (East Carolina), 9th round pick RHP Ryan Berry (Rice), and 10th round pick RHP Jacob Cowan (San Jacinto JC) all offer very good value for their draft slots. Harris has tons of tools, and both Berry and Cowan were considered possible second or third round picks if not for injury questions. This may not be a spectacular draft class, but I think it is solid.

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Speaking of the draft, a good article in the Sun about top draft pick Matt Hobgood. Some good quotes from Hobgood too:

"I'd like to get to the pros as quick as I can and help the O's start kicking butt in the American League East," he said. "Striking out A-Rod would be a nice way to start."

and


"Call it my alter ego," Hobgood said of his competitive streak. "I'm a nice guy off the field, but out there that'll get you run over. Nolan Ryan once said he was an SOB on the mound, and if it works for him ... "


If this kid was a Scott Boras guy, I would be suspicious that he was prepped; that's how mature and level headed his quotes are. But he seems really genuine and if he really does have his head on straight, that's one less obstacle for him to overcome to get to Baltimore.


Regardless, it looks like he's set to sign with the O's on June 27th and will report to either Bluefield or Aberdeen.


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Ken Rosenthal thinks the future looks bright for the Orioles.

Then he criticizes Nick Markakis for being selfish for not ending his 65 consecutive games played streak and Nick fouls a ball into the press box and shatters Ken's laptop.




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The minor league hurler shuffle...

Over the past few days, Brian Matusz has reported to Bowie, Jake Arrieta moved up to Norfolk, so did Troy Patton and Tim Bascom came up to Bowie from Frederick.

Keep 'em coming...

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You know, one of these days I have to get out to Bluefield to take in a Bluefield Orioles game. Bluefield has been a Baltimore affiliate for 52 years and is a living piece of Oriole history. The season kicks off on June 23rd against the Elizabethton Twins. Einar Diaz will be the manager this season. The 24th is Hardee's Night! Gotta love the rookie leagues...

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Sammy Sosa reportedly tested positive for steroids? See previous post.