Random Thoughts About the Oriole Winning Streak

Yeah, for the Orioles, four games IS a streak. Here are some random thoughts that don't deserve full posts of their own...

*****

With all the veteran power bats the Orioles signed over the winter, it has been the 5'9" Brian Roberts who has been fueling the offense during Baltimore's 4-0 start.

Being a leadoff hitter, Roberts doesn't hit a ton of multi-run homers. He has two 3-run homers and 8 RBI in four games this season.

But this kind of start is not without precedent. If we go back to Roberts' breakout season of 2005, he also had 2 homers in the first four games with 5 RBI.

Will Roberts repeat his April from 2005? That month he hit .379/.459/.726 with 3 doubles, 3 triples and 8 home runs. Probably not. But April has historically been one of his best months. A hot Roberts (and a hot Nick Markakis) could carry the offense a long way until the big bats come around.

*****

The Oriole pitching staff is holding their opponents to a .191 BABIP which is outstanding. However, they are giving up line drives at a 16% or .160 rate so far. The quick rule of thumb is to add .12 to the LD% to get an expected BABIP. So, the .191 BABIP is way below the expected .280 BABIP derived from the LD%. It's a small sample size and you would expect fluctuations like this over four games. But you should also expect some of those line drives to start dropping in for hits at some point.

*****

The Orioles' April schedule is pretty daunting. They play (or have played) series with Tampa, Detroit, Texas, New York, Cleveland, Minnesota, New York again, Boston and Chicago. That is a long, challenging month.

However, the May schedule has series against Chicago, Kansas City, Tampa, Seattle, Tampa again, two short series with Boston and New York, Washington, Kansas City, Oakland and Seattle again. 

If the Orioles can stay hot and keep their heads above water for April, they have easier times ahead in May. This team could keep winning well into June.

*****

After Monday's game, Matt Palmer from PressBoxOnline.com wrote this:

As an observation, the Orioles are better with the additions of Vladimir Guerrero and Derrek Lee so far. That might seem like an early judgement, but the other hitters in the lineup are benefiting from the veteran presence. Guerrero's only batting .125 with no RBIs. Lee is batting just .214 with 0 RBIs. Brian Roberts, at the top of the order, is batting .294, however, with eight RBIs and two home runs. Nick Markakis, batting second, went 3 for 3 in the opener and is batting a scorching .429 with six hits. Pitchers are fearing what's coming after Roberts and Markakis instead of fearing the formidable duo at the top of the order.

First, I would direct Mr. Palmer here for proof that lineup protection does not exist or at the very least is incredibly overstated.

Second, even if I were to accept the concept of lineup protection, there are some logic fails with this argument. The guys hitting .125 and .214 are providing so much scary offense that Roberts and Markakis are seeing more good pitches? And how come Lee isn't benefiting from Vlad hitting behind him in the lineup? Shouldn't he be seeing better pitches too? If so, why is he hitting .214? And Matt Wieters has hit well so far. Is he benefiting from Adam Jones' .125 batting average too? And shouldn't Roberts and Markakis be seeing more fastballs? Because they're not. Roberts is seeing fastballs at about the same rate as he ever has. Markakis is actually seeing far less. There are a lot of holes in that story.

The top of the order is succeeding in spite of the "veteran presence" through four games, not because of it. Unless you believe in wizardry, voodoo and The Force.

Juggernaut!: Tigers Can't Slow Down Orioles

Butt Bump!

The Orioles opened up Camden Yards for the 2011 season in style dispatching of the Detroit Tigers 5-1 before a sellout crowd this afternoon.

If you've been watching the Orioles play so far, you've seen something rare. The Orioles have not gone 4-0 since 1997.

25-year-old RHP Jake Arrieta held the Tiger offense (a lineup that put up 19 runs during their 3 game series with the Yankees) to a single run over 6 innings. Relievers Jason Berken and Koji Uehara held Detroit to one hit over the last 3 innings to lock down the game.

The big offensive blow came, again, from Brian Roberts. Roberts went deep against SP Rick Porcello for yet another 3-run homer to break a 1-1 tie in the 5th and put the Orioles ahead for good.

I liked Arrieta's poise this afternoon. He only struck out 3 and walked 2. He got the ball up in the zone and few times and gave up some hard hits. But he defense let him down on a couple of occasions. Adam Jones broke back instead on in and turned a flyout into a single and Mark Reynolds bobbled a sure double play ball in the middle of a Tiger rally. But Arrieta did not rattle. He kept throwing strikes and although he threw 99 pitches to get through 6 innings, he held the line.

Now the nitpicking...the offense is not hitting well overall. Roberts is not going to keep hitting 3-run bombs. Luke Scott is day-to-day. Vladimir Guerrero can't buy a hit and Jones looks no better as they both flail at everything thrown their way. Nobody but Roberts has hit a home run. The pitching staff has been fairly lucky and been bailed out by great defensive plays early. Signs point to a regression unless performances improve.

But for now, the Orioles are taking care of business. The performances from the young hurlers are extremely encouraging and should give them a bit of confidence moving forward. Scott could play on Wednesday. Roberts, Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters and JJ Hardy are hitting well. The defense, overall, is playing pretty well.

Jeremy Guthrie is in the hospital with pneumonia. Brad Bergesen will have to make a start on Wednesday. This little winning streak could come to an end very soon.

But winning is always better than losing. The Orioles had some really bad luck on their way to a 5-18 April a year ago. I'll certainly take a few good bounces our way. And I can't wait to see the young guys take the mound again.


(Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)

With Brian Roberts in Limbo, A Way to Cushion the Blow

With Brian Roberts in and out of the lineup this spring, you can't help but be concerned for the offensive prospects of the Orioles this season. There are plenty of mistakes to be made when considering who to bat leadoff should Roberts not be available for the regular season.

Unfortunately, many managers overvalue speed and base running ability when choosing a leadoff hitter. They seem to forget that none of that means much unless the leadoff man.

Can you imagine the team batting Cesar Izturis in the leadoff spot for a significant portion of the season and how damaging that would be to the offense? Before you start to think that batting Izturis leadoff is so ridiculous that no manager would do it, consider this breakdown of Izzy's career and where he and his career .296 OBP have hit in the lineup:

He has hit leadoff more than he has hit 9th or 8th individually. And he's batted 2nd quite a lot too. There are enough managers out there with big league jobs who looked at Izzy and said, "That's a guy I need at the top of my lineup." It has happened and can happen. When you lose a player who embodies the classic leadoff hitter like Roberts, there is an enormous opportunity to do something stupid.

And it can lead to disaster. To demonstrate, using the Lineup Analysis tool at Baseball Musings, I created a probable and pretty traditional lineup with Brian Roberts at the top of the order.

That lineup will score you 5.127 runs per game or 830 runs over the course of the season.

Now, place Cesar Izturis in the leadoff spot and you get 4.877 runs per game or 790 runs per season. In 2010, that difference would have been enough to drop your offense from second in the American League to sixth.

Here's a quick list of the internal "traditional" options and what happens when each of them bats leadoff:

R/G   Total Runs
Izturis   4.88      790
Andino    4.90      795
Hardy     4.92      797
Harris    4.95      801

(In the Hardy leadoff scenario, Izturis is also batting 9th...)

However, leave Izturis in the lineup (he is the most likely to play second base if Roberts can't, at least to start the season) but try a different configuration.

I have recently become more strident in my assertion that Nick Markakis has the skills to be a prototypical leadoff hitter. Let's give him a shot here. And instead of a guy in the 2 hole who "is a good bunter" or "can move the runner along", let's put a decent hitter there. A guy like Luke Scott who can get on base at a fair rate and actually drive in the leadoff man.

That lineup will get you 805 runs for the season. Even choosing the worst possible offensive option at second base, with Markakis and Scott at the top of the lineup, it beats every other option available.

The loss if Roberts will still hurt but it can be mitigated if you assess the skills of the players in your lineup correctly and construct your lineup accordingly...it doesn't have to be a disaster. Now we'll see if Buck can navigate his way through the pitfalls.

Spring Training Updates: Week 2

The end of the second week of spring training games is upon us, so lets see how these position battles are shaking out.

Before the season I listed 5 things to watch:

1. Pie versus Reimold - Felix Pie is hitting .250/.250/.350 still with just the two doubles over 20 plate appearances and, characteristically, no strikeouts or walks. Nolan Reimold is hitting .308/.471/.577 with 2 homers, 7 walks and 5 strikeouts over 33 plate appearances. Reimold is not only outhitting Pie by a large margin, he's getting a longer look this spring. With Derrek Lee's injury, they may both make the Opening Day roster, at least for a while.

2. Chris Tillman versus Jake Arrieta - Arreita has a 3.60 ERA, Tillman has a 7.20 ERA. However, Tillman's peripherals are better (0 HR, 4 K, 1BB) than Arrieta's (1 HR, 2 K, 2 BB) I haven;t seen either of them to see how hard one or the other is getting hit. Zach Britton has been moved up to starter with Tillman working in relief for today's game. A sign of things to come? At the moment, it does not look good for Tillman.

3. Brian Roberts Rebound - Sidelined with neck spasms early, now he is sidelined with back spasms. Not good.

4. The Battle for the Backup Backstop - Craig Tatum got up off the mat and is hitting .300/.333/.350 after last night's game. However, Tatum only has 21 plate appearances. Jake Fox has 30 and has posted a line of .367/.367/.767 with three homers and three doubles. Fox is getting the longer looks this spring and is hitting very well. And he has not embarrassed himself behind the plate. Fox has the edge.

5. Who's the Backup Middle Infielder? - None of the candidates has hit. Cesar Izturis has been hurt but is hitting .250/.250/.357 so far and probably has the job by default at this point.

Further developments: Koji Uehara threw on flat ground yesterday...Some beat writers believe that Ryan Drese has pitched well enough this spring to insert himself into the competition for the 5th starter. Drese has not pitched in the majors since 2006 or in affiliated ball since 2008...I saw Jeremy Accardo for the first time last night. He's getting groundball, throwing strikes and has yet to allow a run this spring. If he pans out, kudos to the Oriole scouting team for rescuing him from the Toronto farm system he has been buried in for the last two seasons...Ryan Adams might be a better prospect than I thought. He has decent power and a good approach at the plate. His fielding needs some work but if he's passable, the bat might play. He should get to (if not starts in) AAA at age 24 this season. I'll be curious to see how he does...Top prospect Zach Britton is coming up on the outside in the rotation competition. He has given up no earned runs and his peripherals and ground ball rates look great...Rule 5 pick Adrian Rosario has been wild and has a 9.00 ERA. The team can arrange a trade for him with the Brewers but he looks like a wasted pick at this point...Meanwhile, RHP Pedro Beato has a 1.80 ERA for the Mets but the peripherals are not so good for him. RHP Pat Egan has a 0.00 ERA but only two appearances for the Brewers. Both may be offered back to Baltimore or in Egan's case, he could be swapped for Adrian Rosario.

The New 2011 Brian Roberts Injury Timeline

Frustrating, isn't it?

I present the 2011 version of the Brian Roberts injury timeline. Remember last year when Roberts' injuries were downplayed over and over but got worse and worse and then he missed 2/3 of the season? Yeah, me too. That's why this 2011 pattern seems all too familiar.

This is just a tracker that I will continue to update...and freak out about, until the end of the season.


February 22nd, 2011 - Jeff Zrebiec reports on Brian Roberts arriving at Spring Training:

This year, (Brian Roberts) said, has a little different feel, and the best part about it is he is healthy again after struggling with a herniated disk in his back all last spring.

The very next day...


February 23rd, 2011 - Roch Kubatko reports that Roberts leaves camp.

I just arrived in the workroom to find out that Brian Roberts isn't working out today. He left camp with a sore neck.

Roberts might need X-rays. That's all we really know at the moment.

Later that day, Roberts returned to camp and Jeff Zreibiec had this:

Orioles second baseman Brian Roberts returned to Ed Smith Stadium after getting X-rays and downplayed his stiff neck.


"We probably all had a stiff neck at some point in our life, right? I'm not overly concerned," he said.


Of course, any ailment involving Roberts will raise panic after he played just 59 games last season because of a herniated disk in his back.


Asked whether he understood that, Roberts was dismissive, saying: "I understand there's about a two feet difference from where my back hurt and where my neck hurt. So I'm pretty sure they are not related."


Roberts returned to the stadium to get some treatment. He isn't sure whether he'll be able to participate in tomorrow's workout.



Feb 24th, 2011 - Roberts doesn't participate in the workout. Peter Schmuck:

Brian Roberts, who missed yesterday's workout and went for X-rays after waking up with neck stiffness, will not work out today, but said his neck feels better.


"I'm not going out today,'' he said, "but it's better. I'm going to get some treatment and just try to get it calmed down. Hopefully, I'll be out there tomorrow."



February 25th, 2011 - Roberts was not "out there tomorrow". From MLB.com:

Brian Roberts was held out of workouts again on Friday, as the Orioles' second baseman continues to deal with neck stiffness, but he said that if it was the regular season he would be able to play.


"You play during the season hurt at times, and this isn't anything that would cause me to miss any games if it was the season right now," said Roberts, who missed his third consecutive day of workouts.



Feb 26th, 2011 - Roberts Practices. USA Today:

Roberts received an ultrasound treatment on his neck Saturday morning after participating in the team's annual photo day. He then suited up and practiced for the first time since Tuesday.


Roberts had to get the approval of the athletic training staff before returning to the field....


Roberts probably won't play when Baltimore opens its exhibition schedule Monday against the Pittsburgh Pirates in Bradenton.



March 2nd, 2011 - Brian Roberts Makes His Spring Training Debut...and All Was Quiet

Until...


March 7th, 2011 - Yankees vs. Orioles

Leading off the game, Brian Roberts lays down a bunt between the pitcher and first base. He dives into first, narrowly missing being trampled by the pitcher and Mark Teixera. At the time I tweeted that Roberts was "a big dummy" for doing that in a Spring Training Game. Roberts played until the 5th inning.


March 8th, 2011 - Roch reports

Brian Roberts is dealing with back spasms and is tentative for tomorrow afternoon's game against the Minnesota Twins in Sarasota.


"We'll see if that will take care of itself overnight," Showalter said.


"He said he did it two, three days ago during the stretching. It kind of came back. He felt good last night. He had it from stretching and just tweaked it a little bit. It went way and he played the game. He came in today and it flared up again."



March 9th, 2011 - More from Roch

Brian Roberts said his back feels a little better, but he won't play in today's game against the Twins in Sarasota. And there's no way he's traveling to Fort Myers tonight for the other split-squad game.


"It's not too bad," he said.


Roberts said he woke up with back spasms a few days ago. He said they weren't caused by him diving into first base during Monday night's game against the Yankees.


"I never really said anything because I wanted to keep playing," he said. "When I get them, they usually come on and then they go away on their own after a couple days. I probably didn't help things by sliding when I already had back spasms, but that wasn't the cause of them."



Roberts could play today...but they're already saying he won't travel to Kissimmee tomorrow. So playing today seems unlikely.

March 10, 2011 - Brian Roberts has "trigger-point injections and schedules an MRI. The Sporting News:

Baltimore Orioles second baseman Brian Roberts had "trigger-point injections" in his ailing back Friday and will be sidelined until at least Tuesday, according to The Baltimore Sun...


Roberts told MacPhail that the pain isn’t as bad as it was last spring, and manager Buck Showalter expressed optimism that Roberts will be ready for opening day.


March 15, 2011 - Robert's MRI reveals nothing new. Because...

...he has been experiencing discomfort since January and it hasn't really gone away. Asked how this compared to last year he said it was 100 percent different,and this current issue isn't nearly as bad.


...he will progress toward "possibly" being ready on Opening Day on a day-by-day basis.

Stay tuned...

The Crystal Ball 2011: Brian Roberts

Don't you know that he is a shooting star?

We should enjoy Brian Roberts while we have him.

He is the greatest Oriole second baseman ever. He leads all Baltimore second basemen in games played, homers, triples, doubles, hits, stolen bases, runs scored, RBI, batting average and slugging. Sure, you could make the argument for Davey Johnson or Bobby Grich but those guys got traded. Roberts is the best second sacker to wear the orange and black.

That's the good news.

The bad news is he is coming off an inury filled season where he only played 59 games and posted a .745 OPS, his lowest output since 2004. (Remember how much you missed seeing him leadoff games last season? We take him for granted, don't we?)  Is he healthy? From all accounts, he is fully recovered from his injuries he struggled with in 2010.

And if he is fully healthy, things could be looking up. Projections are kind to him (Marcel: .764 OPS, .341 wOBA; ZiPS: .767 OPS) and while middle infielders typically don't age well, Roberts will be 33 in 2011, not 34 or 35 when age tends to really take its toll.

Where he could be a liability is in the field. Although he seemed to have a rebound season with the glove in 2010, it is likely that his defensive skills will continue to erode. The best we can hope for is that Roberts is an average defender. His 2008-2009 UZR and Total Zone numbers were subpar.

I think Roberts understands the limitations of his body as he continues to age. He's not going to be stretching doubles into triples as often (I remember the "doggin' it" accusations from fans in 2009 as he rapped 56 doubles but just a lone triple. As if he was lazy...) and he's not going to run as much (although I would still expect him to steal close to 30 bases) as he tries to preserve himself and realizes his blazing speed is not quite as game changing as it once was.

But he still draws his walks and gets on base. His walk rate over the last two seasons in still over 10% and in this revamped lineup full of power bats, that will be his (and Nick Markakis') most improtant job. Just get on base, set the table and let Lee, Scott and Guerrero drive you in. And he's still effective enough to be really, really good at that.

So just continue to enjoy Brian Roberts. He's a living piece of Baltimore history, the best second baseman the team has ever seen.  And he'll be gone before you know it.

Brian Roberts Self-Flagellates Himself to the Bench

This note from Dan Connolly in The Baltimore Sun as Brian Roberts explains that he received concussion-like symptoms from a hit by...himself.


"I don't know 100 percent sure, but it was Monday night. In frustration [after a strikeout], I whacked myself on the head with my bat in the ninth. I had my helmet on," Roberts said. "It's something I've done a million times, but I still can't tell you for sure if that was it. But that's the only thing that I can point to because that night and the next morning, I just didn't feel good. So it's been going on since then....


"I just have some lack of balance and some headaches, and just stuff that hasn't been a whole lot of fun," Roberts said. "So, unfortunately, I haven't been able to obviously get out there and play, but we're still working on trying to get all the results and figure out what's going on."


(sigh)


Brian, it's bad enough that you are a 32-year-old second baseman who has developed back problems and we may have grossly overpaid for with a 4-year extension. Now you are concussed as well?


And here's a clue: When you hit yourself in the head with a bat "a million times", I'm guessing that's your root cause. You can send the other suspects home. You don't need Jimmy McNulty to solve this mystery.


Add this to the laundry list of issues that Roberts will have to be concerned about during Spring Training. (Back trouble, knee trouble, flu-like symptoms....)


And in case you need the point drilled home, Brian, remember Gus Ferrotte.

Orioles Are Switching It Up

Saw this on Twitter las night from CamdenRevival:

Wow, forgot the Orioles have four switch-hitters in the lineup. Though I wish two were named Murray & Singleton. #Orioles #that70sOsShow

Damn. He was right. I can't believe I missed that. Brian Roberts, Matt Wieters, Josh Bell and Cesar Izturis were all in the lineup. The first time it happened was August 3rd. Just over 14 years ago, to the day, was the last time the O's featured a quartet of switch hitters. (August 2, 1996)

Also pointed out by CamdenRevival, the four switch hitters appeared in consecutive spots in the batting order as it turned. Roberts was 1st, while Wieters, Bell and Izturis filled spots 7-9. That also happened for the first time on August 3rd and had never happened in Oriole history before.

How do I know all this? I posted this last season when it appeared that Wieters, Roberts, Izturis and Zaun might make up a quartet of switch hitters. But Izturis was hurt and Zaun got traded shortly after Wieters' call up from Norfolk.

This quartet will be short lived as Izturis will probably be gone after the season and there are no switch hitters in AAA. Although, the next guys are in Bowie and are both shortstops (Pedro Florimon and Greg Miclat) so maybe they'll be here sooner than we think.

They Did It Again!

Brian Roberts' walk-off homer in the 10th last night is just the latest in a series of feel-good wins for the Baltimore nine.

Is it Showalter? Maybe a bit. Offensive outburst? Yeah, they've scored a few more runs over these last seven games. But mainly, it's been the pitching. Seven straight quality starts for the Oriole hurlers has given the club a shot to win every night.

Are the pitchers coming around? It's still Rick Kranitz after all. Maybe.

It's probably smoke and mirrors but we'll enjoy it while it lasts.


Photo from The Baltimore Sun...

5 Biggest Disappointments for the 2010 Baltimore Orioles

The problems with the Orioles in 2010 have been multifold. But some of the season's disappointments have been greater than the others and contributed more to this disappointing season than the others. After some examination, here are the depressing top 5.

5.  Brian Roberts' Injury

Although many of us bloggers raised red flags when the Orioles signed Brian Roberts to a 4-year, $40 million extension last season (some of us, before the fact), I don't think any of us expected age and/or injury to start catching up to Roberts so fast.

Roberts being sidelined early in the season with a variety of back problems hobbled the Orioles' struggling offense even more as a brutal rotation of leadoff hitters tried desperately to fill in. Oriole leadoff hitters have combines for a .302 OBP and .645 OPS.

Roberts could return as early as this weekend but fans have to wonder about his durability and effectiveness as he plays through the 3.5 years left on his contract.


4. Adam Jones' Glove

Adam Jones has had his struggles at the plate this season but has come around of late and, I feel, he'll be just fine in the long run at the plate. Despite his Gold Glove last season, Jones is not showing a great glove in center. He plays shallow and repeatedly let's balls go over his head. He takes bad routes on balls. He sometimes misplays the routine.

Jones, in terms of UZR, is the 3rd worst fielding centerfielder in baseball. UZR does not always tell the whole story, especially for partial seasons, but last season he has the third worst UZR/150 among regular centerfielders as well.

The most frustrating thing about this is that Jones has all the tools: great speed, great leaping ability, an arm that rivals that of Nick Markakis. But he just hasn't put it together in the field this season.


3. Nolan Reimold

After a breakout year in which he forced himself onto the Baltimore roster way ahead of schedule, Nolan Reimold fell off a cliff. Hitting .279/.365/.466 over 104 games during his rookie campaign, Reimold attracted serious Rookie of the Year consideration before having to have surgery on his Achilles tendon toward the end of the season.

I don't believe that Reimold was completely healthy to start the season as he hit an anemic .205/.302/.337 with Baltimore before a May 12th demotion. But being back in Norfolk has not helped matters as he has only .212/.303/.335 since his return and shows no sign of coming around. Reimold has been playing some first base for the Tides and, perhaps, if he is fully healthy in 2011, he could still fulfill some of that promise while filling a need for Baltimore. But that looks like a real longshot at this point.


2. Brian Matusz

Continuing the theme of disappointing young talent, Brian Matusz has yet to become the staff ace that he was predicted to be when he was promoted to Baltimore late last season. Sure, he was a bit rushed to the majors and, sure, I expected him to struggle a bit at the beginning of the season. But as the most polished member of "the Calvary", I thought Matusz would have started showing some life by now. He hasn't.

Matusz's changeup, his best pitch, gets hit pretty hard. His strikeouts are down and walks are up, neither to a great degree but they aren't moving in the right direction. Granted, his FIP and xFIP are significantly better than his 5.21 ERA. But while Tillman, Arrieta and Bergesen were kind of expected to scuffle through this season, Matusz was expected to be a respectable pitcher by now. He's not and he needs help to get there.


1. Matt Wieters

The most highly touted catching prospect since Joe Mauer, one of the most praised minor league bats of all time, one of the few prospects that basically had no criticism from any scout or analyst about his offensive game, Matt Wieters has been a anemic bat in the Oriole lineup. After a torrid September, many were predicting a breakout season for Wieters (including me). Predictions called for average, power and great control of the strike zone. It hasn't happened.

Only Jason Kendall, Yadier Molina and Russell Martin have lower ISO's among catchers. Ditto for average. Only A.J. Pierzynski has a lower OBP.

Were all the scouts wrong? I don't think so (or at least, I hope not). But Wieters' struggles are the latest indictment of Terry Crowley's work with young hitters. Jones hasn't advanced much. Wieters has struggled. Reimold floundered. It seems that hitters develop in spite of Crowley rather than because of him.

Wieters needs help to get his head back on straight. A new coaching staff could do wonders for that.

Streaky Orioles (or How Streaky is Luke Scott Really?)

How streaky is Luke Scott? That's the question that inspired this post.

Streaky is kind of hard to define. For this exercise, I tracked various Oriole batter's monthly OPS over the last three years. The batter had to have a full three years of action so guys like Adam Jones and Matt Wieters were not included. I then averaged the monthly OPS totals so there was a baseline for each player. Ultimately, standard deviation will be used to determine which players are the most steady and the most streaky.

First, here's the graphical representations.

Ty Wigginton

Miguel Tejada

Brian Roberts

Nick Markakis

Cesar Izturis

Luke Scott

Obviously, Luke Scott's graph jumps off the page but Miguel Tejada and Ty Wigginton have some streaky tendencies too.

How's the standard deviation break down?

            Standard Deviation
Izturis             0.095
Roberts             0.109
Markakis            0.113
Tejada              0.138
Wigginton           0.155
Scott               0.206

The semi-streaky Tejada and Wigginton pale in comparison to King Streaker Scott. He is, indeed, a very streaky hitter.

One other thing of note is how steady Brian Roberts has been over the last three seasons. Jeff Zrebiec mentioned in an article last season that Roberts was a streaky hitter but this exercise show no such evidence.

Brian Roberts Hospitalized with Pneumonia

According to Jeff Zrebiec, Brian Roberts has been hospitalized and diagnosed with pneumonia.

Orioles injured second baseman Brian Roberts didn't board a plane today headed for Sarasota, Fla., like he originally planned in order to begin his rehab program for the herniated disk in his back.

Roberts, instead, was at a Baltimore area hospital, where he was diagnosed with pneumonia...

“We don’t anticipate that it’s going to be anything that impacts his rehabilitation schedule,” Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail said.

Roberts now probably won't leave for the team's spring training complex in Sarasota for a several days.

Firstly, regardless of what Andy MacPhail says, it absolutely impacts his rehab schedule. He was supposed to leave yesterday, now he won't report to Sarasota for several days. Schedule impacted. I am just incredulous that MacPhail would say such a thing.

Secondly, can we get Roberts on a plan for healthful living? Forgetting the back issues and the abdominal strain, Roberts was sidelined for three days in Spring Training with the stomach flu and now this 32-year old athlete comes down with pneumonia, not in the dead of winter, but in May.

What's up with Brian's immune system? $10 million per year can buy a lot of vitamins.

Time to start taking better care of yourself Brian...you aren't getting any younger.

Looking for The Clutch

What have to Orioles been missing this year? Sure, the offense but what do you hear most often?

"The big hit"

"Situational hitting"

"Hitting with runners in scoring position"

"Runners left on base"

"Coming through in the clutch"

These are the things that are missing if you ask your average Oriole fan.

I believe in clutch hitting. How can I not? It happens everyday. But it is rarely predictive or repeatable.

So how do we measure it? Most times it is measured with batting average with runners in scoring position (BARISP) but that is a pretty volatile stat to use for individual players (and whole teams for that matter).

There are a number of other stats which show how a batter "moves the needle" for his team in a positive or negative direction. Most of you probably know about WPA (or WPA/LI)which I have highlighted with the WPA Graphs I borrow from FanGraphs.com but there are more. Sticking with FanGraphs, there is also RE24 and Clutch. (For explanations of the above terms, click the links for the FanGraphs definitions...they explain it much better than I can.)

So for reference, here are the WPA/LI Oriole Leaders for the last 3 years.

Orioles' WPA/LI Last Three Seasons

             WPA/LI    Year
A. Huff        2.990     2008
N. Markakis    2.939     2008
B. Roberts     1.867     2008
L. Scott       1.493     2009
N. Markakis    1.359     2007
B. Roberts     1.147     2007
B. Roberts     1.057     2009

And the RE24...

Orioles' RE24 Last Three Seasons

            RE24      Year
A. Huff        36.449    2008
N. Markakis    35.097    2008
B. Roberts     23.184    2008
L. Scott       18.031    2009
N. Markakis    17.748    2007
B. Roberts     17.664    2009
B. Roberts     17.217    2007

And the Clutch numbers which are interesting because they compare the high leverage performance of a player to their baseline performance:


Orioles' Clutch Numbers Last Three Seasons

                 Clutch      Year
Brian Roberts      1.2       2009
Adam Jones         0.91      2009
Nick Markakis      0.78      2007
Corey Patterson    0.58      2007
Melvin Mora        0.56      2008
Ramon Hernandez    0.49      2008
Brian Roberts      0.4       2007
Brian Roberts      0.34      2008
Adam Jones         0.3       2008

OK, who walked around in 2007 saying, "Man, that Corey Patterson is so clutch!"?

And before this season, Adam Jones had been pretty clutch.

But I think we can see the name that shows up on all these lists the most...Brian Roberts. You can't overestimate how integral Roberts has been to the Oriole offense over the past three years. Only Nick Markakis is even close in terms of contributing to Oriole wins. Roberts moves the needle in the Orioles' favor far more than any other batter on the roster.

Now, most of the team is slumping and you have to think they will turn it around eventually. But this offense may not start clicking until Roberts returns. And that's weeks away.

Brian Roberts Timeline

Some things need to be seen in context. Here's how the Brian Roberts back injury story has spiraled downward over the past three and a half weeks...


Feb 18th: ESPN's Buster Olney reports a rumor about Brian Roberts and kidney stones:

Heard this: Orioles second baseman Brian Roberts is coping with some serious discomfort from kidney stones, but to this point, the team has no indication that it will affect his preparation for the start of spring training.

Later that day...

After "internet speculation" about Brian Roberts battling kidney stones, Dave Trembley confirms to reporters that Roberts is instead having "a back spasm".

"He told me when he's here he'll be a full go," Orioles manager Dave Trembley said....

President of baseball operations Andy MacPhail also seemed unconcerned that Roberts might come into camp under any restrictions.

"We had our medical review [Wednesday] and we're not anticipating that Brian will be limited,'' he said.



Feb 21st: From a note in the Baltimore Sun:

Mark Pieper, the agent for Brian Roberts, said that the second baseman, who has been slowed in recent weeks by back and kidney issues, is in town and will be ready to go in time for Tuesday's first workout.



Feb 22th: From the Sun...

Roberts reported to spring training camp Monday and acknowledged that he was diagnosed with a small herniated disc in his back about a month ago. However, the injury will not require surgery and is not expected to have any lingering effects besides Roberts taking it slow early in spring training....

It's going to be a little slow probably at the beginning, but it shouldn't set me back hopefully for [Opening Day] on April 6."

Orioles President of Baseball Operations Andy MacPhail said that the club isn't concerned because Roberts has already responded well to medication and treatment.



Feb 23: Brian Roberts had his first workout in Sarasota:

Brian Roberts took grounders at second base, lifted and hit off the tee on Tuesday morning, and is hoping to be able to take live batting practice within the next week.

Roberts, who was diagnosed with a small herniated disc in his lower back a few weeks ago, said he didn't have any pain when bending over to field on Tuesday.



Feb 25th: Britt Ghiroli tries to get a timeline:

So, I sought out Crow with fellow reporter Roch Kubato, and Crowley's plan right now isn't concrete. Seems he's playing things by ear, although Crowley sounded less optimistic than Roberts about when the second baseman would take live batting practice. Roberts had said on Tuesday that he had hoped to start taking BP within a week. It's something that is possible, but I got the feeling from Crowley that that maybe too soon.



Feb 27th: Dave Trembley updates Roberts' status:

Orioles manager Dave Trembley said he still isn't sure when Roberts will be ready to take batting practice, but the club is happy with the progress the two-time All-Star has made.

"He's doing a great job in all the drills, playing catch, running the bases," Trembley said. "We're going to take our time with the live hitting."



Feb 28th: Brian Roberts takes batting practice:

Brian Roberts took swings during the Orioles live batting practice on Sunday for the first time since being diagnosed with a small herniated disc in his lower back.The Orioles leadoff hitter, Roberts progressively swung with more authority as he rotated through the team's five stations, taking some good hacks in particular off infield coach Juan Samuel...

"That's the last phase, start hitting live," manager Dave Trembley said of Roberts' program. "So, it was good to get that started [on Sunday]."

With the Orioles set to play an intrasquad game on Monday and open Grapefruit League play against the Tampa Bay Rays on Wednesday, the timetable for Roberts' return is still undecided.

"I don't know [when Roberts will get in games]," Trembley said "I will wait until I see what [head athletic trainer Richard Bancells] tells me, what [Roberts] tells me. I can't put a time frame on it."



March 4th: No timetable for Roberts' return:

Trembley also continues to insist that he is not concerned about the back injury that has limited the activities of Brian Roberts.

"No, I'm not concerned," he said. "Today is March 4. If it's April 4, I'll be concerned."

Since there is no firm target date for Roberts' exhibition debut, somebody asked Trembley what he thinks is the minimum number of at-bats that a player needs to get in spring training to get ready for the season. He said 30.



March 6th: Britt Ghiroli reports that no news is, well, no news.

There's no new update on Brian Roberts, with Trembley declining to set any timetable on his Grapefruit League debut. Roberts have been a full-go in practice but has yet to play in a game, as he works his way back from a herniated disc in his lower back.



March 9th: Roberts' back medication causes stomach distress:

Brian Roberts' progression in rehabbing a slight herniated disc in his back hit a speed bump Monday night, after taking medication that upset his stomach.

Orioles manager Dave Trembley said Roberts was prescribed a megadose pack on Sunday, similar to a cortisone shot, to help reduce the inflammation and is now suffering from a stomach virus.

Roberts was confined to the team's training room on Tuesday and the initial course of action is to stay away from baseball-related activities for the following three days.

Later on that day, Andy MacPhail weighed in...

Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail said he doesn't expect Brian Roberts to play in an exhibition game for at least another week, but he is still confident that the injured second baseman will be ready for Opening Day.

"The medical stuff that I have so far indicates that he should be ready to go when the season starts," MacPhail said. "It is what it is. You have to recognize that you have a month to go before you open. You have time, and you have to take advantage of it to make it right."

MacPhail said that Roberts, who has a slightly herniated disk in his back, has had no setbacks, but the club is taking a "very low-key approach" with the treatment.



March 10th: Andy MacPhail changes the party line:

"I talked to Richie Bancells, our head athletic trainer, about it again today, and at this time he still thinks Brian is going to be ready for Opening Day, but you have to be concerned now," MacPhail said. "To me, you get 10 days into spring training before you start really paying attention, but the clock is starting to be an issue. ... By now, we have to start thinking about, 'What if he isn't ready?' "

MacPhail said he might start having his scouts look at who is available on the trade market along with exploring internal options.



March 14th: Brian Roberts is flown back to Baltimore to see a back specialist:

Brian Roberts was back at second base taking infield early today, which appeared to be a sign that he was making progress in his recovery from a nagging lower back injury.

That appearance turned out to be deceiving.

Soon after Roberts returned to the Orioles clubhouse at Ed Smith Stadium, the team announced he was being sent back to Baltimore to see Johns Hopkins back specialist Dr. Lee Riley and, perhaps, pursue an altered course of treatment on the herniated disk that has limited his activity throughout spring training.

The team said that Roberts will receive an "epidural" (a local pain-reducing injection) to deal with the remaining soreness, but Roberts said later that will be just one of the possible options when he is examined on Monday...

If this latest revelation about his condition would seem to raise a red flag after several weeks of physical therapy, Roberts insists that he has suffered no setback and he still thinks he will be ready to play when the Orioles open the regular season on April 6 against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field.

"Certainly, my goals haven't changed for April 6,'' he said. "I don't think that anybody, from the trainers room to anybody else, I don't think their goals have changed at this point."

That all sounds nice, but Roberts admitted in almost the same breath that he has not made a lot of progress recently, and he did not hide his frustration with this latest series of events when he spoke to reporters before Sunday's exhibition game...

The situation is a study in mixed signals. Roberts says he has not had a setback, but he was swinging a bat a week ago and he hasn't since. The Orioles say they still think he'll make it back in time, but they are working on a Plan B. Roberts took infield on Sunday and looked very comfortable, yet he's headed back to Baltimore.



So to recap, the diagnosis went from kidney stones to back spasms to a herniated disc. The timetable went from full speed at Spring Training to workouts only, (originally with no BP) to ready for Opening Day to "we're not really sure". It's not a good trend.

MacPhail Thinks O's May Need a New Second Baseman...But Who?

It's the Herniated Disc Felt 'Round the Harbor. Andy MacPhail now admits that he is concerned that 2B Brian Roberts may not be ready for Opening Day.

When asked if the team would seek outside relief to temporarily fill the hole at second base, MacPhail didn't rule out the option. 

"We will see what's out there," he said. "Obviously, we have weekly calls with our pro scouts, and we have to let them know what's going on in our camp. We might have to shift their focus a little bit from what the initial menu was. And then, obviously, we are going to have to start exploring more internal options as well." 

Well, checking the list of available free agent second baseman over at MLBTradeRumors.com reveals this:

Second basemen
None available

Unless you count Ryan Freel, there is literally no one out there.

So then you have to figure that Baltimore would have to trade for someone which would seem pretty unlikely...unless they think Roberts' injuries mat threaten his season.

So the realistic internal options come down to these guys: Robert Andino, Justin Turner, Blake Davis and Miguel Abreu.

Abreu and Davis are not on the 40-man roster so that leaves Andino and Turner. My guess? Andino takes over second with Ty Wigginton getting the occasional start with Michael Aubrey taking the empty roster spot.

I'm not panicking yet but as I've shown before, second basemen of Roberts skill set do not age well.

Raw Power...Again. This Time with Splits!

I was playing around with the new splits over on FanGraphs.com and discovered that they had batting stats for various zones of the field. So I broke down the ISO stats for some of the Oriole hitters to see where their power was for 2009

Nick Markakis

Split                ISO
as L to Left        0.138
as L to Center      0.126
as L to Right       0.291

Not surprising that Nick's power comes when he pulls the ball toward Eutaw Street. 14 of his 18 homers went to rightfield. But there is power to right as he hit 24 doubles while going the other way.

Brian Roberts

Split                ISO
as L to Left        0.089
as L to Center      0.087
as L to Right       0.448
as R to Left        0.101
as R to Center      0.182
as R to Right       0.125

When Brian Roberts is batting lefthanded, don't let him turn on one. He hit 15 of his 16 homers to right while batting lefty as well as 20 doubles. His righthanded power is more modest but more evenly distributed.

Luke Scott

Split                ISO
as L to Left        0.097
as L to Center      0.368
as L to Right       0.325

I've always thought of Scott as a dead pull hitter and he's got some great power to right but his power is even better to center. 12 of his 25 homers went to center.

Nolan Reimold

Split                ISO
as R to Left        0.288
as R to Center      0.215
as R to Right       0.143

Good power to the pull side, pretty good up the middle to. Even going the other way is not bad with 5 extra base hits over only 358 ABs.

Matt Wieters

Split                ISO
as L to Left        0.269
as L to Center      0.085
as L to Right       0.167
as R to Left        0.139
as R to Center      0.250
as R to Right       0.108

The splits for Wieters are uneven but his power as a lefty to left field is what kept me encouraged during his early struggles. Even when he was swinging late, he still showed fantastic opposite field power. 5 of his 9 homers went to the opposite field.

Adam Jones

Split                ISO
as R to Left        0.321
as R to Center      0.110
as R to Right       0.213

Power to the pull side. Jones did hit all 3 of his triples to right as well as 3 homers displaying good opposite field power.

Felix Pie

Split                ISO
as L to Left        0.153
as L to Center      0.224
as L to Right       0.273

This is what is so tantalizing about Felix Pie. His power is close to Reimold's output and he's a fantastic defender. It's easy to see him pushing his way into the lineup during Spring Training. If Reimold is DH'ing as he works himself back into shape after Achilles surgery, Pie will have ample opportunity to impress in Sarasota.

The Crystal Ball '10: Brian Roberts

There was nothing more irritating, in a season where Brian Roberts was having a record-setting year for hitting doubles, to listen to people snipe at Roberts for not hustling on the bases. Where were the triples? Only one? He's just stopping at second to pad his stats, right?

Hear this people...Roberts was a 31-year-old second baseman and speed is a vital component of his game. He's slowing down. He knows this and being the smart baserunner that he is, he will not risk getting thrown out trying to stretch a double into a triple.

But he is still a great baserunner. He stole 30 bases and only was caught 7 times, good for a spectacular 81% success rate. And to anyone who thinks he wasn't hustling...he stole third 14 times in 2009, more than any other American League player and was not caught once! No hustle?!?!

Anyway, enough of that rant.

The reality is that Roberts will be 32 in 2010 and as I said in last year's Crystal Ball, second baseman with Roberts' profile do not age well and you can start to see signs of that decline. While he remains a good baserunner, the stolen base total have dropped for three seasons (50, 40, 30) as has his defense in terms of UZR (5.8, -1.5, -0.9, -8.9). UZR does fluctuate but his UZR was bad enough last year to drop him from a WAR north of 4 to 3.4 in 2009. That's still nothing to sneeze at...but I have to admit it's troubling.

So what's the best thing Roberts could do at the plate to continue to add value? Keep stroking doubles, keep stealing bases smartly and get that OBP back up above .370. It dropped to .356 and as the wheels start to slow, he needs to draw a few more walks to remain a serious threat on the bases.

Enjoy him while he lasts. Roberts is a uniquely gifted hitter for a second baseman and the smartest baserunner I've ever seen. But I can't shake the feeling that we are witnessing the beginnings of a (hopefully) slow decline.

Realistically, I'm sticking with the CHONE projection of .278/.358/.427 line with a 3.3 WAR. Not bad, just not the level of greatness we got used to.

Photo by Phil Romans and used under the Creative Commons License 2.0

The 2009 Season in Review

This last month has been a microcosm of the 2009 season. The team looked doomed to 100+ losses, showed some fight that gave you hope, lost 13 straight to send them right back to the depths of suckitude and then rally to sweep the Jays in the last series of the season. With Matt Albers getting the win in the final game! An odd season...

Record: 63-98 (Baltimore will pick third in the 2010 Draft.)


The Good


Brian Roberts clouts 56 doubles to set the team, franchise and switch-hitter record for doubles in a season. Add 16 homers and 30 stolen bases and you've got a heck of a year and the MVO award. And before we leave Roberts' remarkable season, one more record of mild interest. No one in the history of baseball has ever hit 55+ doubles and stolen 30 bases in a season until Brian Roberts in 2009. Nobody.

Cesar Izturis would have trouble hitting his way out of a wet paper bag but it's his glove we love. Izturis ranks 4th in baseball among shortstops in terms of UZR and even with the injuries has been a breath of fresh air over the motley crew that was trotted out in 2008. Baltimore fans know good defense at short when we see it and this year Izturis (with an assist from Robert Andino) provided it.

Matt Wieters. This next quote comes from a season wrap-up article for the Orioles on Baseball Prospectus:

Aubrey Huff, Melvin Mora, and Ty Wigginton were big disappointments, but none so much as the eagerly-awaited Wieters. The catcher produced some of the best minor league numbers in recent memory, including his first two months in Triple-A this year, but upon his big-league debut, he didn't show much in the way of big-league power.—Clay Davenport, Baseball Prospectus

Possibly the dumbest, most short-sighted comment I've read all year.

Wieters, in fits and starts, has shown steady improvement as the season has gone along, at the plate and behind it. He has a mere 380 plate appearances in the majors. It's just a tad early to call him disappointing isn't it? Chuck Norris-style joking aside?

Wieters posted a .346/.403/.505 line for September/October. That's a nice way to finish the season and gives him something to build upon for next year. But no one could have reasonably expected him to come to Baltimore and start immediately bludgeoning the AL East. But that time may be sooner than we think.

All the debuts were good, even if the results were not. Getting Brad Bergesen, Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, even David Hernandez and Jason Berken up to the bigs for a taste of things (and giving management a chance to evaluate them) was a good thing for the future of this club.


The Bad


Melvin Mora was dreadful. Arguably the worst third baseman in the league (at the plate and in the field) and he got way too much playing time based on his tenure and not his actual skill. He will be remembered fondly but not for 2009.

Aubrey Huff peaked far too early to get any trade value for him. He was pretty bad himself and the thought of him returning to Baltimore in 2010 gives me the tremors.

Jeremy Guthrie righted the ship a bit in September/October but was pretty wretched throughout the 2009 season. Only the complete ineptitude of the rest of the rotation made him look palatable on the mound.

As the ball left Billy Butler's bat and struck Brad Bergesen sharply in the shin, I tried to guard myself against a creeping fatalism as he limped, hopped and ultimately tumbled down the dugout steps and collapsed in the tunnel. You hope he comes back the same pitcher and you wonder what might have been had he pitched the rest of the season.


The Disappointments


Nick Markakis posted a measly .801 OPS after nearly topping .900 last season. Markakis saw drops in power, OBP and average from 2007 and 2008 and now sits back at offensive levels that he had in his rookie season. That means he's merely decent and not great. Perhaps this year was a fluke, perhaps 2008 was the high water mark but Nick dashed my predictions for a breakout season in '09 and all the Enos Slaughter comps I've ever made.

I could probably throw the entire bullpen into my bag of disappointments but I'll personify them through Matt Albers. I think Albers has the talent to be a great reliever in the majors but while he show flashes from time to time, ultimately he fails and leaves you wondering why he can't throw strikes. This is the story with most of the remaining bullpen as we head into 2010. Nobody (save perhaps Mark Hendrickson) stepped up their performance in 2009.

I never got to see the lineup with four switch hitters before they traded Zaun to Tampa Bay.


The Surprises


Nolan Reimold was certainly a prospect before the season but I was quite surprised by how fast he made it to Baltimore this year and even more surprised how he found success from the jump. Even more surprising was the fact that he could post an OBP north of .350 for his rookie campaign. The power was never in doubt and, yes, he showed some plate control skill in the minors but some (including me) doubted if he could translate that skill to the majors and avoid becoming the second coming of Jay Gibbons. He proved me wrong.

Brad Bergesen's poise and effectiveness so early in his career. It's not easy for a finesse pitcher to live in the AL East, especially a rookie. But Brad did.

Michael Aubrey was acquired from the Cleveland Indians for the ubiquitous player-to-be-named-later and after Bad Aubrey was traded to the Tigers, Michael got a shot to play and has shown himself to be Good Aubrey indeed. Aubrey has posted a .289/.326/.500 line in 90 plate appearances and flashed a (dare I say it?) a Teixeira-like glove. He makes me feel like he's a good in-house stopgap at first base, a guy to give Brandon Snyder more time to come along in Norfolk next year. I've been beating the drum for guys like this to get a chance on this team and with a nice Spring Training, Aubrey may force management's hand.

Dave Trembley coming back? I wouldn't have guessed that two weeks ago. But I am happy he's back for one more year. He was given little to work with in '09 and did a decent job of putting the rookies in places to succeed, at least as much as could be expected.


The Failures


The Warehouse started the season with a rotation of Guthrie, Hendrickson, Adam Eaton, Alfredo Simon and Koji Uehara. Only Guthrie was left by season's end. Uehara had injuries, not really management's fault but the assembly of the rotation before the 2009 season was a monumental failure by Andy MacPhail and company.

Baltimore kind of had to take Ryan Freel to unload Ramon Hernandez to the Reds but he did nothing and whined about wanting to hurt the team more with more playing time. He was unloaded for Joey Gathright early in the season.

I still don't like the Oscar Salazar/Cla Meredith trade and, so far, the Trade Monitor bears that out.


The Successes


The George Sherrill trade netted a legitimate prospect at third (Josh Bell) and perhaps an under the radar starting pitching prospect (Steve Johnson) from the Dodgers. Great, great trade.

The Michael Aubrey pickup was another low risk move that has borne fruit early in the transaction.

Even with Felix Pie's growing pains, that trade has turned out very well for the Orioles. Pie was nearly a league average hitter before he injured his leg late in the year and was playing great defense in left and center. Mental lapses aside, he has shown value as at least a fourth outfielder for this team.


The Jekyll and Hyde Awards


Adam Jones before All-Star Break: .303/.357/.480
Adam Jones after All -Star Break: .222/.290/.405

Luke Scott before All-Star Break: .305/.384/.592
Luke Scott after All -Star Break: .208/.292/.375


Predictions


Some of my pre-season predictions:

So my first prediction is that Penn turns out to be way more useful to the Marlins than Robert Andino will be to Baltimore. - Actually, they turned out to be equally bad in terms of WAR but honestly, I was wrong about this one.

Alfredo Simon is out of the rotation by the end of May. He won't be with the big club by July. - Check

Matt Wieters is here in May. - Check.

Brad Bergeson is here in July. - He made it much earlier.

Brian Matusz is here is September. - As Andy MacPhail has admitted, he was rushed and got here in July.

The Orioles win 72 games. - Yeah, not exactly.

Lou Montanez won't OPS better than .750 at any level...unless he goes back to Bowie. - Except for a 10 game stint in Norfolk, correct.

Nick Markakis OPS's .900+ - Way, way off base.

Felix Pie gets better in the second half. - Admittedly, it would have been hard for him to get worse but after putting up .234/.299/.355 in the first half he came through with .290/.346/.497 in the second. More plate appearances in the second half too. Correct.

Adam Jones hits 20+ home runs. - In May, it looked like I had underestimated him. But he only reached 19 due to injury and slumps. Wrong.

Luke Scott and Ty Wigginton provide the best Oriole platoon since...well, in a very long time. - I forgot about that whole "Trembley doesn't do platoons"rule. Dead wrong but oh, what could have been.

And as Joe Pawlikowski of River Ave. Blues was happy to point out, I predicted an 81-81 record for his New York Yankees in a preseason chat. Yeah, the juggernaut that won 100+ games. What can I say? A lot of old guys had career years where I thought they would start to show their age.

But in that same chat, I was lambasted for stating that while I thought Evan Longoria was a fearsome hitter, I did not find B.J. Upton fearful at all. We'll call those chat predictions a wash.

So, that the season folks and I...am...outta here!

OK, not really. What's in store for the offseason at Dempsey's Army? Coverage of the AFL and the Hawaiian league as O's prospects take the field. Transaction coverage as usual. I think I'll be working on some interviews and honing my chops at that. Some non-Oriole baseball posts and at least a couple posts that are completely off-topic, just to keep the juices flowing. Oh, I'll probably finish the History of the Oriole Closer series and post some mini book reviews if they strike me.


OK, now time for a beer...


How about some "Downpressor Man" to finish the season off? I think so.

Around the Oriole Blogosphere: Utter Collapse Edition

Before I start this edition of AtOB, I wanted to mention that Dempsey's Army has been nominated for a Mobbie for best Oriole blog at The Baltimore Sun. Please vote for us in the Oriole blog category if you feel so inclined.

But if you don't, please go vote for one of the other Oriole blogs I link to or that you may enjoy. It's a long suffering group and they all deserve some good recognition. Voting runs through October 9th. Vote early, vote often!

*****

Stacey at Camden Chat notes something about Brian Roberts' doubles explosion that I hadn't noticed:

Brian Roberts hit his 56th double of the year which is a record for most doubles by a switch hitter. Lance Berkman held the mark before him. It seems like a weird record to me.

In the midst of a 12 game losing streak and 100 losses looming, I'll take weird.

*****

Patrick Smith of Bugs and Cranks is ambivalent when it comes to Dave Trembley's future:

I’d love to write that I’d be outraged if they fired Trembley after presenting him with a stinkbomb of a team to manage. I really should be stumping for the guy and I’m not sure why I’m not. Numb, I guess, after 12 losing seasons.

*****

Dan at Camden Crazies examines Brian Matusz in the midst of a sweeping multi-post look back at the Orioles of 2009. He's a good man. And thorough.

*****

Matt Wieters Facts:

Matt Wieters Doesn't Take Pitches...He Shows Them Mercy.

Matt Wieters Forced Rick Astley To Give You Up, Let You Down, Run Around And Desert You.

Matt Beat Cancer..... Literally With His Bat. There Is No More Cancer.

*****

Orioles Card 'O' The Day highlights the birth of the Baltimore club and gives a tip of the cap to Bill Veeck.

On a side note, the other owners hated Veeck so much that when they heard he was trying to move the Browns to Milwaukee, they swiped the deal out from under him and allowed the Braves to move there instead in 1953. Baseball owners are and evolved breed, huh?

*****

Jay Trucker looks at the losing and the manager:

2 ½ years later, the team has played terrible fundamental baseball. The young guys have a chance to grow in 2010. Right now, it looks like the whole team is trudging to the end of the year. One way to start 2010 on a fresh page is to ax Dave Trembley. He hasn’t had a team with which to compete the last 2 ½ years, but he hasn’t taken the club a step forward by working with what he’s had during that time, either.

*****

It is a cruel mistress but at its root, baseball is still a beautiful game. Anthony at Oriole Post can still remind me of that as he always manages to catch some good action shots during the games at OPACY.

*****

Right Off Russell takes a look back at the 1989 "Why Not?" Orioles:

It was a year when everything broke right. Players had career years and late inning rallies were commonplace. The ‘89 O’s were a young bunch that scrapped and clawed for everything and almost pulled of an amazing worst to first turn around. And personally, it was truly magical. I had just jumped into sports fandom, sure I was aware of the Orioles, but 1988 was the first year I followed them with a passion. Nice timing, huh? Experiencing the ‘89 season only solidified the Orioles lifelong hold on me.

*****

If you don't like Roar from 34's Eutaw Street Chronicles, you hate America.

*****

100 losses? The Loss Column, ironically, says we shouldn't care.

In other words, these last five games of the season mean nothing. Whatever needs to be seen has been seen. Year three of the rebuilding process is already underway.

*****

The Wayward O is backing the manger. Here's Wayward O with more:

Wayward O is backing manager.

This losing streak (collapse) is because Baltimore is not real Baseball Team capable of playing full season.

It is not because Mr. Dave Trembley is bad manager.

*****

Weaver's Tantrum salutes the fine effort of Brian Roberts, even if it has been in vain. Regarding his doubles record for switch-hitters:

A lot of the guys on the single season doubles list are Hall of Famers. Brian is in good company. It seems unlikely that B-Rob can get to 60, tying Todd Helton's post-WWII record, but its not impossible. He can be forgiven for some selfish play at this point in the season. Forget about drawing walks or moving runners along, Brian. Go for the record!

Base Hits: The Long Road Home, Records Broken and Top Draft Picks Galore

I predicted that September would be ugly for the O's but after winning series' against the Yankees and the Rangers, you started to think that they would be competitive with the weaker part of their schedule. I was wrong the second time.

11 straight losses including sweeps at the hands of the Blue Jays and Indians have put 100 losses back on the table. It already has them in line for the 2nd overall pick in the 2010 draft.

               W    L    GB
Washington    53   103   --
Baltimore     60    96   7.0
Pittsburgh    59    96   7.5
Kansas City   64    93   10.5
 

Facing the Rays and the Blue Jays this final week, the Orioles are just about assured of getting the 3rd overall pick and have a great shot at the 2nd pick of the 2010 draft. My advice at this point: keep losing

*****

Also in this last week, Jeremy Guthrie has a chance to give up more home runs than anyone in Oriole history. He has given up 32, the record is 35. Unlikely, as Guthrie has pitched better in September but well withing reach.

*****

Speaking of records, it has been widely reported that Brian Roberts can reach 60 doubles this season. He has 55 with 6 games left so it is unlikely that he will reach 60. But 60 is kind of an arbitrary number. The real milestone is 58.

If Roberts hits three more doubles, he will have one of the top ten seasons for doubles since 1901. That's what I'll be looking for this last week.

*****

The Orioles and Sarasota have selected the firms that will renovate Ed Smith Stadium, the new Spring Training home for the team.

The plan is to "either tear down or renovate" the stadium after Spring Training 2010.

*****

Will Dave Trembley return in 2010? It's not looking good.

(Oriole GM Andy) MacPhail has said for months that the club won't make a decision on Trembley's option for 2010 until either the last weekend of the season or a couple of days after it ends...

MacPhail met with Orioles owner Peter Angelos last week to discuss Trembley's status, but he continues to say little about the situation...

MacPhail has talked repeatedly about the importance of avoiding a late-season swoon, which has became an annual rite for the Orioles. He made it clear Sunday that he isn't pleased with the way the club has played on its current 10-game road trip...

Macphail has also said that while the record counts, the management will have to examine underlying factors as well. Yes, they do.

But it's going to be hard to not fire Trembley at this point. That's not where Dave wants to be.