Three More Things I Learned from the Bill James Handbook

While we sit here and wait for Spring Training, here's some more tidbits I found while perusing the 2001 Bill Jame Handbook. These three factoids all concerned players who are no longer with the team, coincidentally.

1. Corey Patterson Has Some Value

At least as a fourth outfielder. For a guy who was plucked from the waiver wire and started his 2010 Oriole season in Norfolk, Corey Patterson had a successful season in Baltimore. The batting line was about what you would expect from him (.269/.315/.406) but he brought more than his bat to the table.

According to the Handbook, he was the best baserunner on the team, by a good margin, while only playing 90 games. He did well in every aspect, stealing 21 bases at an 84% rate, scored well above average in going 1st to 3rd, 2nd to Home, and 1st to Home and grounded into double plays only 3 times in 47 opportunities.

In addition, on John Dewan's +/- scale, he scored a +3 for his work in left and center and saved 4 defensive runs.

Patterson has moved on to Toronto and there really wasn't room for him in Baltimore but he's a good guy to have as your fourth outfielder. I'm sure he'll cause some headaches for Baltimore next season.

2. Ty Wigginton Doesn't Have As Much Value As You Might Think

According to the Handbook, the Orioles were 27th in baserunning last season. As a group, they lost 31 bases  compared to average baserunners. Ty Wigginton lost 21 of those bases by himself. Not only was he a poor base stealer, he grounded into a bunch of double plays and he was very poor at advancing on hits. Even Matt Wieters, as slow as he is, only scored -10.

He was also a poor fielder. He scored -8 in terms of Runs Saved and was just passable (+3 Runs Saved) at first base.

Given his .248/.312/.415 2010 batting line, it's hard to see what the Rockies liked so much about him when they gave him $8 million over the next two years. That could be an ugly little contract.

3. Really? That Guy?

The Handbook breaks down reliever performance and has a stat called Clean Outings which are outings when the reliever does not give up any runs or allow any inherited runners to score. The leader for the Oriole bullpen. Matt Albers with 34 Clean Outings. Matt Albers. Koji Uehara was second with 33 in many fewer appearance. I'm not sure that this doesn't say more about the poor bullpen than the effectiveness of Albers.

Streaky Orioles (or How Streaky is Luke Scott Really?)

How streaky is Luke Scott? That's the question that inspired this post.

Streaky is kind of hard to define. For this exercise, I tracked various Oriole batter's monthly OPS over the last three years. The batter had to have a full three years of action so guys like Adam Jones and Matt Wieters were not included. I then averaged the monthly OPS totals so there was a baseline for each player. Ultimately, standard deviation will be used to determine which players are the most steady and the most streaky.

First, here's the graphical representations.

Ty Wigginton

Miguel Tejada

Brian Roberts

Nick Markakis

Cesar Izturis

Luke Scott

Obviously, Luke Scott's graph jumps off the page but Miguel Tejada and Ty Wigginton have some streaky tendencies too.

How's the standard deviation break down?

            Standard Deviation
Izturis             0.095
Roberts             0.109
Markakis            0.113
Tejada              0.138
Wigginton           0.155
Scott               0.206

The semi-streaky Tejada and Wigginton pale in comparison to King Streaker Scott. He is, indeed, a very streaky hitter.

One other thing of note is how steady Brian Roberts has been over the last three seasons. Jeff Zrebiec mentioned in an article last season that Roberts was a streaky hitter but this exercise show no such evidence.

Loving Ty Wigginton

After the Orioles signed Garrett Atkins and Miguel Tejada in the offseason, it looked like the writing was on the wall for Ty Wigginton. There was no way I though they would pay Wigginton to sit on the bench but the injury to Brian Roberts during Spring Training may have led The Warehouse to keep him around as insurance. (Wigginton is not a good fielder at second base but at least he would be an option.)

And it's lucky that Wigginton is still here because he has been carrying this moribund offense all season. The line on Wigginton:

           AVG  OBP  SLG OPS+ wOBA  WAR  HR 
Wigginton .327 .410 .712 199  .464  .80   6
 

Sick, sick numbers. Now let me throw a little cold water on Wigginton's performance...it can't last.

But there is a bright side. This performance is not altogether fluky based on the peripherals. Wigginton has a BABIP of .289 compared to a career mark of .297 so he's coming by these numbers honestly, it's not all a product of lucky breaks.

His HR/FB ratio is 35.3% compared to a career mark of 13.1%. That will come down...but maybe not as far as you might think. Career years happen. Look at the 2008 version of Aubrey Huff.

This is what ZIPS projects Wigginton to do for the rest of the year:

           AVG  OBP  SLG OPS+ wOBA HR 
Wigginton .283 .340 .480 199  .355 17
 

...which would leave him with a final line of:

           AVG  OBP  SLG wOBA HR 
Wigginton .289 .349 .508 .370 23
 

If I would have told you that Ty Wigginton had a good shot at OPSing .850+ before the season, would you have believed me?

If Dave Trembley is smart, he'll trot Ty out there nearly every single day for the rest of the season. This is going to be Wigginton's career year...so ride the wave.

Anatomy of a Streak-Breaker

Courtesy of FanGraphs.com:




As you would expect, Ty Wigginton was the offensive hero with .252 WPA for the game, a total that will rank among the best of the year. Nick Markakis chipped in with a .092 WPA. Brian Matusz had .108 WPA with 6.1 IP and Jim Johnson, a recent goat, kicked in .062 WPA in 2 innings of relief.

Can the winning continue? Maybe. But the injuries hurt, pun unintended.

OF Felix Pie, 2B Brian Roberts and likely 3B Miguel Tejada will miss the series with Seattle. That hurts the struggling offense. But if there's one offense on the level of Baltimore's, it's the Mariners.

Seattle has only scored 3 more runs than the O's and that's good news for Brad Bergesen. If he can't get back on track in a pitcher's park (Safeco) against a punchless lineup (only 5 homers all season), then he may never get it back.

The bottom line is that the O's have a puncher's chance in this series.

As a bonus, you'll get to see 2B Justin Turner (perhaps a player in the middle infield for Baltimore in 2011) and OF Lou Montanez (who has been buried in Norfolk by Baltimore's infield depth). Yeah, that won't help the W-L ledger but I've been curious to see how Turner will handle big league pitching and all those "Sweet Lou" worshippers should come out of the woodwork to hope that Lou shows enough to at least be trade fodder in July.

I'm sure you're all sick of my sunny optimism by now but...Let's Go O's!

Base Hits: Offseason Moves, Suspensions and Hope for the Season

Erik Bedard went back to Seattle. Now that the best of the remaining "high risk, high reward" pitchers is off the market, one has to wonder if the O's will now bring in a couple guys on minor league deals. The pickings are slim. Todd Wellemeyer. Kip Wells. Livan Hernandez. Jason Jennings. Kris Benson. And more like that. The Orioles have been linked to none of them.

One intriguing possibility would be Noah Lowry if he's truly healthy but for now it appears that the Orioles are satisfied to go to Spring Training with David Hernandez, Jason Berken and Alfredo Simon as backup plans.

(And it's nice lip service and all but I don't believe for a second that Chris Tillman has serious competition for a rotation spot. It's a nice thing for Dave Trembley to say for motivation but Tillman is in the rotation barring injury.)

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Oriole minor league reliever Brian Parker has been suspended for 50 games after violating the Minor League drug Prevention and Treatment Program. Given the level of prospect, I'll label this one "BFD".

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I was listening to the MLB Home Plate channel on Sirius/XM radio last Wednesday when Adam Jones was pulled over while conducting a phone interview with Casey Stern and Kevin Kennedy. "Guy's, you're not going to believe this but I'm getting pulled over." sais Adam, then as he addressed the officer, "Hold on, I'm conducting an interview. Let me get off the phone." He was pulled over and cited for having his windows tinted too darkly (Jones lives in San Diego but was in Arizona for offseason workouts) and when he came back on the show he reported that the officer was a Red Sox fan and like Jacoby Ellsbury. Adam's mother defended him over here.

But here's some other gems from the interview:

Jones doesn't care where he hits in the lineup, he just likes hitting with Brian Roberts on base. If Nick Markakis is on base too, all the better. He just likes to drive in runs.

On Nick Markakis' arm and defensive prowess, ""I yell at him everytime he gets to throw. He has a great arm. I love it. I loive watching him throw."

In addressing a couple of off-beat question from Casey Stern, Jones reports that he is the most likely Oriole to lock his keys in his car and that Nick Markakis is the teammate most in need of a makeover. "He wears the 'Who shot the couch?' coat sometimes."

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In other various roster news, Roch Kubatko thinks that Ty Wigginton may get dealt before the season begins. I have been assuming/hoping that he will since Garret Atkins and Miguel Tejada make him expendable and moving him gives Michael Aubrey or Scott Moore a shot at a bench spot.

Japanese lefthander Hisanori Takahashi,a former team mate of Koji Uehara, has rejected a minor league offer from the Orioles. Not great loss here as he would be providing only depth except for that cool name.

Dennis Sarfate has cleared waivers and will be a non-roster invitee to Spring Training. A little depth never helps.

Cal Ripken, Jr. and Brooks Robinson both believe that Miguel Tejada has the skills to make the transition to third base. The gist is that Tejada still has the "quick twitch" skills and the arm to play third, which is probably true.

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The Wayard O details Nestor's swansong from the WNST airwaves.

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In a variation of the "he's in the best shape of his life" stories you see at this time of year, here's a couple from Steve Melewski on former (and future?) Oriole top prospect Billy Rowell. Part 1 and Part 2. I'd like to get optimistic but...

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I love two things today; DJ Roomba and the latest edition of the Eutaw Street Chronicles.

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Last minute link: Camden Crazies gives us colorful charts showing how various Orioles do with pitches thrown in various zones.

Looking Forward to the Oriole Windfall, Part 2

In Part 1, we broke down the guaranteed and expected salaries for players currently on the roster and looked at possibilities for free agent third basemen the Orioles could target. We'll look at pitching but not before we take a look at first base.

Assuming the O's sign a free agent third baseman, that would leave Ty Wigginton to man first base. Brandon Snyder is hitting much better in Norfolk these days and may well seize the job in Spring Training sending Wiggy back to the bench. If so, great. If not, there will a bench spot left for corner infielder at the beginning of the year which could be filled by a guy from AAA (newly acquired Ryne Hughes, Michael Aubrey or a healthy (if there is such a thing) Scott Moore).

The bullpen is set without free agent signings (except for the signing of a lefty like Mark Hendrickson or someone of his ilk) and four of the spots in the starting rotation are Guthrie, Tillman, Matusz and Bergesen.

Jeremy Guthrie may not be a staff ace but he's not a 5.66 ERA pitcher either. I expect him to rebound next year, at least to league average levels.

Brad Bergesen is the most polished of the rookies and although he's unconventional, he should stick next season.

Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz are the young studs, great stuff, great pedigree and have found some success in 2009. They are here to stay, at least for 2010.

This leaves one spot to be filled by David Hernandez, Jason Berken or Jake Arietta internally. But all three of these guys have shown some strong signs of not being ready yet. So why rush them? Baltimore has the cash to sign a veteran to help anchor the rotation for the next few years.

The candidates?

Tim Hudson

       ERA    IP    SO   BB   HR   WHIP   W   L
2007  3.33   224.1 132   53   10   1.22  16  10
2008  3.17   142    85   40   11   1.16  11   7
2009         ----- has not pitched ----

The issues here are obvious. Firstly, the Braves have an affordable 2010 option on Hudson (but Hudson could void it if he wishes). Second, he's coming off elbow ligament replacement surgery. Third, he'll be 34 in 2010.

However, he's a pitcher who may be available and his style would fit in very well at Camden Yards. He's a ground ball pitcher and a good control guy. He would be available for probably $12-14 million per year due to health questions. He's had success in the American League before.

Why would he come to Baltimore from a team that could contend in Atlanta? Atlanta management, while they think they have a team that can contend, has tended to cheap out over the past few seasons when it comes to spending money. They may look at their pitching depth and not even pick up Hudson's $10 million option, looking instead to spend that money on a bat.

Hudson's a risk and you'd have to keep an eye on his rehab starts...but if he's healthy I think he's a good fit.

John Lackey

       ERA    IP    SO   BB   HR   WHIP   W   L
2007  3.01   224   179   52   18   1.21  19   9
2008  3.75   163   130   40   26   1.25  12   5
2009  3.73   118    99   33   12   1.23   8   5

Peter Schmuck stole some of my thunder on this one but Lackey is probably the best free agent fit in terms of health, age and performance. The problem is you'll have to pay for that performance.

It would take at least a 5-year deal to land Lackey and, for the Orioles, a 6 or 7-year deal might be necessary to lure him away from the Angels. Offering a long term deal to a starter in his thirties (Lackey will be 31 to start next season) is always risky and this contract would be an expensive risk.

Lackey is a bit more on the fly ball pitcher range of things but should still be OK at OPACY.

The other free agent pitchers are less than overwhelming. Jarrod Washburn, John Garland, Brad Penny, Erik Bedard...all mediocre to lousy or big injury risks. Maybe you bring a guy or two like that into camp with an incentive laden contract but you wouldn't pursue any of these guys hard.

For the first time since the 2004, the Orioles have some money to spend and a couple holes to fill. It's time to go fill them and start competing in 2010.

The Crystal Ball '09: Luke Scott

Luke Scott came over from Houston last offseason as one of the five players Baltimore received in return for Miguel Tejada. In terms of Win Shares, Scott nearly equalled Tejada's output in 2008. (see the Trade Monitor to your left...)

Scott, by default, was the best left fielder the Orioles have had since B.J. Surhoff hung up his cleats and filled a gaping hole that the Orioles has struggled with for years. (A sign of The Warehouse's ineptitude before Andy MacPhail arrived...how hard is it, really, to find an average leftfielder?)

But his struggles hitting lefties have continued. Scott hit .215/.300/.402 against lefties in 120 plate appearances in 2008. That's a big problem but a problem that may have been solved with some offseason acquisitions.

Dave Trembley has been averse to playing straight platoons, (He kept giving Jay Payton ABs against righthanded pitching when it was painfully obvious that the ONLY thing he could still do was hit against lefties...) but the addition of Ty Wigginton and, to a lesser extent, Ryan Freel could go a long way to mask Scott's weaknesses and cobble together an adequate DH that is greater than the sum of its parts. Imagine this guy at DH. Let's call him Tyanuke Freeginscott...:

        PA   AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS
Scott  415  .269  .346  .492  .838
Wiggy  200  .320  .380  .510  .890
Freel   50  .331  .360  .435  .795
 

Total  665  .289  .357  .493  .850
 

That's not bad production from what would primarily be DH at-bats.

Yes, it's tough to platoon when you only carry three players on your bench but the guys they have now offer enough versatility to keep Scott out of situations where he will most likely fail. And he can be brought off the bench at key moments to face righthanded relievers.

And Scott's defensive woes have been overblown. He's not pretty doing it but he gets to most balls hit his way and can still help spell Felix Pie (who has been all but given the starting job) in left.

IF Trembley platoons him correctly, look for a .280/.350/.500 line over 400 ABs.

Ty Wigginton...Still Another Free Agent Signing

Ty Wigginton has signed a two-year deal to play for the Baltimore Orioles.

First, the negatives. Wigginton plays various positions (1B, 2B, 3B and OF) but doesn't play any of them particularly well, save for the corner outfield spots.

Even though he had a good year for Houston last year, he has basically been a league average bat over the course of his career.

His career OBP is .330.

He'll reportedly make $3 million per season for the next two years.

All that said, given his projected role, the signing will probably improve the team.

Why? He hits lefties very well and the Orioles needed someone to put in the lineup against C.C. Sabathias, Scott Kazmir and the other tough lefties Baltimore will have to face this year. Against LHP, Wigginton's line is .288/.364/.514 and in 2008 it was .340/.424/.631 . He'll go a long way to offset the weaknesses of Luke Scott and Aubrey Huff against lefthanded pitching.

He'll spell Melvin Mora in the field.

He'll likely push Chris Gomez off the roster. The fewer AB's that Gomez gets, the better this team is. (Baltimore will already be giving 600+ AB to Cesar Izturis...we can't afford anymore "good glove, bad bat" guys in the lineup...) In 2008, Gomez was a guy who played a lot of positions but none of them particularly well and he can't hit his way out of a wet paper bag.

So to recap, if this move prevents Gomez from making the 25-man roster and if Dave Trembley deploys him correctly (mostly against lefties), he'll be a useful player for the next couple seasons.

It'll be interesting to plug him into the WAR spreadsheet...