Base Hits: Surprise Exit for Melvin (?), Payroll, Projections and Irrational Exuberance

Melvin Mora has signed with the Colorado Rockies.

What's with all the "I guess Melvin Mora is really gone" stories? Wasn't it obvious when they declined his option and gave no hint whatsoever that there was still a place for him in Baltimore? Can you imagine his grousing at having to share time with Garrett Atkins or Miguel Tejada? I don't understand why people think this marks the moment that Mora is "officially" no longer an Oriole. That day has long passed.

While we're talking about Melmo, Buster Olney uses Mora's splits to demonstrate the wrong way to use stats for analysis.

Mora had a .260 batting average in 2009, but he really enjoyed the friendly confines of Camden Yards, where he hit .314 compared to .209 on the road. The .105 difference in his home versus road batting average was tied for the second-largest among players with at least 200 at-bats each at home and on the road.

Forget for a minute that batting average is a horrible stat to use for splits over one season and forget that for his Oriole career that Mora has fairly even splits in all his offensive categories, this stat may have been relevant if he was going to a neutral or pitcher's park. He's not. He's going to a field that is even more hitter friendly than OPACY. And he's going to a weaker league. If anything, Mora will enjoy a nice rebound based on this split, not a regression because he is leaving Camden Yards.

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Irrational exuberance alert! Another glowing story on the rebuilding O's from the national media, this time from Ben Reiter of Sports Illustrated. I wanted to highlight one point about Baltimore's free agent signings during the MacPhail era:

The idea here is to bring aboard players who will contribute immediately at the major league level, but who won't financially hamstring the club in the long term (should their production decline), and who won't block cheaper, and potentially better, alternatives who are nearly ready in the minors.


It's a point that needs more highlighting. This is precisely what The Warehouse is using free agency for in the short term and avoiding questionable multi-year deals. And it will probably work in both the short and the long term.

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duck at Camden Chat does his best to unravel the MLB revenue sharing model and finds the Orioles stuck in the middle.

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With the addition of Mark Hendrickson and Miguel Tejada, here is my estimated Opening Day payroll for the 2010 Baltimore Orioles. I am assuming that Ty Wigginton is traded away and that Jeremy Guthrie wins arbitration.

Roberts, Brian	$10,000,000
Millwood, Kevin	$9,000,000
Markakis, Nick	$7,100,000
Tejada, Miguel	$6,000,000
Gonzalez, Mike	$6,000,000
Uehara, Koji	$5,000,000
Atkins, Garrett	$4,500,000
Scott, Luke	$4,050,000
Guthrie, Jeremy	$3,625,000
Izturis, Cesar	$2,600,000
Meredith, Cla	$1,250,000
Herdrickson, Mark	$1,200,000
Mora, Melvin,	$1,000,000
Moeller, Chad,	$900,000
Matusz, Brian	$868,000
Albers, Matt	$680,000
Jones, Adam	$500,000
Wieters, Matt	$500,000
Pie, Felix	$450,000
Mickolio, Kam	$450,000
Bergesen, Brad	$450,000
Tillman, Chris	$450,000
Aubrey, Michael	$450,000
Reimold, Nolan	$450,000
Andino, Robert	$450,000
Johnson, Jim	$450,000
TOTAL	$68,373,000

Still coming in under $70 mil. It's not a bad team for the price which will be small comfort if they lose 95+ games again.

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Baseball Prospectus has had to re-run their PECOTA projections due to a calculation error. The Orioles are now projected for...80 wins. My WAR spreadsheet has them pegged for 80.5 wins.

Ha! Not overly optimistic after all! Who's crazy now?

Big Homer Index: Mora, Blair and Hammonds

It's the offseason so it's the return of the Big Homer Index! What is the Big Homer Index (BHI)? Look here.

Melvin Mora - 158 Oriole Career Home Runs

Now that we can look back lovingly on Melvin Mora's career, I figured it was time to put him through the BHI prism to see how he stacks up. The answer is...pretty well.

Mora hit nearly 25% of his homers with the O's down by 4 or more runs but 41% were Go Ahead homers and he had a couple walk-offs as well. While the "garbage homer" score is high, he had enough heroics to finish with a respectable middle-of-the-pack BHI.

BHI - 238


Paul Blair - 126 Oriole Career Home Runs

Known more for his glove during his Oriole career, Blair delivered his fair share of pop with the bat. Even though lead-off types tend to get penalized by my formula, Blair acquits himself well in terms of BHI. Even with zero walk-off homers, Blair boosted his score with 51 Go Ahead shots and a very low percentage of homers during "garbage time". He finishes on the good side of 250 which puts him well above average.

BHI - 255


Jefferey Hammonds - 51 Oriole Career Home Runs

Hammonds was a disappointment to Oriole fans on so many levels and as it turns out, he wasn't even clutch. A whopping 37% of his Oriole homers came during "garbage time". A lone walk-off blast against Oakland in 1994 is the only thig that keeps his BHI from being sub-zero. His profile is classic stat-padder.

BHI - 109


BHI Leaders - Oriole Career

Brooks Robinson - 495
Eddie Murray - 469
Rafael Palmiero - 469
Mickey Tettleton - 444
Tony Batista - 406
John Lowenstein - 393
Boog Powell - 341
Mike Devereaux - 333
Jim Gentile - 274
Larry Sheets - 266
Paul Blair - 255
Albert Belle - 240
Chris Hoiles - 240
Melvin Mora - 238
Roberto Alomar - 230
Doug Decinces - 225
Brian Roberts - 224
Miguel Tejada - 218
Cal Ripken - 197
Brady Anderson - 138
Rick Dempsey - 136
Kevin Millar - 117
Jeffrey Hammonds - 109
Jay Gibbons - 42
Jeff Conine - 5
B. J. Surhoff - -64

Base Hits: 8/6/2009

Jeremy Guthrie pitched well in Detroit last night but gave up his 27th homer of the season last night. It's the first week of August but Guthrie is only 8 homers short of the club record. Once he reached the top ten, I guess we'll have to put up a Guthrie Homer-meter on the site.

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Quick thought on Brian Matusz: Gnarly.

Matusz looked as polished as Brad Bergesen with better stuff. He had control of all four of his pitches and looks to be here to stay. Yeah, yeah, it's only one start and I'm the king of warning of "small sample sizes" but I'm calling it now. He's here to stay.

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Speaking of Matusz and Oriole rookie starters, FanGraphs has two articles on new Oriole hurlers. Dave Cameron looks at Chris Tillman's fastball location and his propensity for giving up fly balls and Erik Manning uses PitchFx to analyze Matusz's major league debut.

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Melvin Mora's line since his meltdown: .111/.111/.222.

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Almost as encouraging as Brian Matusz's performance on Tuesday night was the performance of Chris Ray in relief. 2.2 IP, 2 Ks, 1 BB, 1 hit, 0 runs.

Ray could be an enormous part of the bullpen in 2010 if he is actually able to come back...

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Some of Matusz's former Keys teammates will be in Baltimore next Monday to heckle the rookie pitcher.

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Erik Bedard is going for an MRI on his shoulder and the fans of Seattle are not too thrilled about it.

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The Bowling Green View interviews one of their alumni, Oriole outfielder Nolan Reimold.

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Former big league outfielder Doug Glanville is a smart guy and make some good observations on some recent steroid revelations in The New York Times.

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Shysterball offers up some good guidelines for ethical blogging.

Melvin Mora's Defense

"Don't give me the excuse that I cannot beat John Smoltz, that I cannot beat Josh Beckett or I cannot beat [Jon] Lester or I cannot beat Pedro Martinez or I cannot beat nobody here..."

Mora vs. Lester: .174/.208/.174
Mora vs. Smoltz: .250/.250/.500
Mora vs. Beckett: .227/.227/.500
Mora vs. Martinez: .192/.300/.231

Hey Melvin, next time you go on a rant, I wouldn't mention these guys.

Base Hits: 8/3/2009

OK, let's cover the big story first. Melvin Mora is angry that he's been benched during 3 of the last 4 games, spouted off about it and may be on his way out of town.

Some Mora quotes:

"I don't appreciate the disrespect, because I've been playing hurt for a guy who won't respect you. I don't deserve it...Whatever he wants to do, he can do it. But like I told you before, I need to have my respect. This is not a guy who just came to the Orioles. This is a guy who's been here for nine years busting his butt for the organization....

"Don't give me the excuse that I cannot beat John Smoltz, that I cannot beat Josh Beckett or I cannot beat [Jon] Lester or I cannot beat Pedro Martinez or I cannot beat nobody here because I've been here for nine years...All those guys in the [American League] East, they know me. They know me and you don't make the All-Star team for nothing. You deserve respect. That's the only thing I can say."

First, I'll continue to beat a dead horse and point back to the Oscar Salazar trade (hi frostking...). On July 19th, the day Salazar was traded away, Mora had a slash line of .272/.322/.333. Salazar was moved due to a need to make room on the 25-man roster. Now, MacPhail got value back for Salazar which was admirable but he got value back at a position that the Orioles have some depth at in the minors. Instead, he could have cut loose Mora, given Wigginton the starting job at 3B and kept Salazar, giving Oscar more ABs between, thirdbase, firstbase and DH. (Mora has been even worse over the past 3-4 weeks...)

Now, they likely find themselves in a position where Mora will be released anyway and there is no chance to find out if salazar could have been a good stopgap at firstbase/DH in 2010.

Second, aside from the Marlins' Emilio Bonafacio, Melvin Mora is the worst third baseman in baseball. The worst. And he feels entitled to play regardless of performance. The Orioles, in some manner, showed respect for his tenure by keeping him on the team and let him play out his contract. They were not bringing him back next year. They threw him a bone by keeping him on the roster.

The Orioles seems to understand the concept of a sunk cost (see Jay Gibbons) and you would like to see them take some non-traditional directions as they move forward in the rebuilding process. Now Mora is forcing their hand. It's timeo for Melmo to go.

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I have little comment on the Boston series except to reiterate that Andy MacPhail did a lousy job at assembling a repsectable starting rotation to start the season. Jason Berken is getting his brains beat out because he was not ready for the majors and is only here because the Orioles had no other options.

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Speaking of guys arriving ahead of schedule, Brian Matusz is set to make his major league debut with a Tuesday start in Detroit.

While this is yet another move that smacks of desperation, I feel OK about this. This is not like rushing up a 20-year-old Hayden Penn or Jason Berken who had very little on his minor league resume to recommend promotion. Matusz is a polished college pitcher and has dominated every level of the minors. He's worthy of a shot, at least for two or three starts. I don't get the impression that he will be in over his head.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks are reportedly pursuing former Oriole hurler Daniel Cabrera.

Cabrera's career 5.09 ERA looks good right about now.

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This is interesting. Liz pitches well for the Tides but Chris Waters has been recalled to Baltimore according to the note at the end of the article. Waters for Berken perhaps?

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Work and personal life will be insane this week...see you next Monday?

Could The Orioles Switch Leagues? Please?

Isolated in the mountains of north Georgia all weekend, there is little better than coming back to civilization to find a Oriole sweep of the world champion Phillies waiting for me.

You know, I didn't see any of the games but can we get Oscar Salazar some more at bats? Every time he gets a shot to play, he gets a hit. OK, while Aubrey Huff is still here you can't cut into his playing time but Salazar can play third and Melvin Mora's bat stinks.

Mora's OPS by month:

          OPS
April    .940
May      .647
June     .583
 

I'm not a Mora basher but he's 37, he's in decline and the club is not going to exercise his option for 2010. Time to give Salazar some of his at bats (and Ty Wigginton too, since we're discussing it...).

Big weekend for Brian Roberts:

                     AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   RBI
Roberts at Philly   .385  .400  .693 1.092    5
 

Where's those people who want to trade him now? Look at our shortstops. Nice gloves but no offense. It's a real luxury to have a good bat at one of the middle infield positions.

Nolan Reimold: another home run, OPSing 1.016 last week and .973 for the month of June.

Jeremy Guthrie gives up another home run but managed to outduel Cole Hamels on Sunday. That's 17 homers surrendered by Guthrie in 15 games and he is on pace to shatter the Oriole record.

Most home runs surrendered by a Baltimore pitcher in a season:

                 HR   GS
Sidney Ponson    35   32
Scott McGregor   35   33
Robin Roberts    35   35
Scott McGregor   34   34
Mike Cuellar     34   40
Kris Benson      33   30
Bruce Chen       33   32
Ken Dixon        33   33
 
 

I was surprised to see Scott McGregor on this list twice. Not really surprised by anyone else (Cuellar had to make 40 starts to make this list.) If Guthrie stays healthy, he should make 33 starts which puts him on pace for 38 homers surrendered.

(I probably don't plug this enough but I compiled this list using the fantastic BaseballReference.com Play Index. Subscribe or sponsor a page today! I use the site nearly everyday and use the Play Index for blog posts all the time...)

But Peter Angleos should lobby Bud Seling to switch leagues; The Orioles would go to the NL East and the Nats would come AL East. Baltimore would actually contend!

Anyway, more NL East play to come, down to Miami for three against the Marlins and back home this weekend for three with the Nats. Enjoy the wins while they last!

Base Hits: 6/12/2009

I am taking down my little "Value Over Daniel Cabrera" widget from the left hand side of the blog. The final results in terms of ERA:

Daniel Cabrera 2008 - 5.25
Daniel Cabrera 2009 - 5.85
Adam Eaton - 8.56
Mark Hendrickson - 5.53
Alfredo Simon - 9.95
Rich Hill - 5.24
Koji Uehara - 4.37

The whole point of the exercise was to decipher what The Warehouse was thinking in regards to the rotation this year. It seemed they were looking for stiffs to eat innings and buy time for the kids in the minors. But then they let go a "proven stiff" in Daniel Cabrera. Cabrera had proven that he was just that kind of pitcher and had proven it in the AL East. It was kind of ironic that they let Cabrera go just at the time he had proven he was forever to be mediocrity but an innings eater. Cabrera was, for the first time in his career, a perfect fit for the Baltimore Orioles and they cut him loose!

Now, you can certainly disagree with me about Cabrera in specific but you have to admit that nobody they brought in has done a better job that D-Cab, save for Koji Uehara. Certainly the trio of stiffs that were in the rotation on Opening Day (Hendrickson, Eaton, Simon) were a downgrade.

I don't have many criticisms of Andy MacPhail so far but his assemblage (or lack thereof) of a starting rotation for the 2009 Orioles has been a glaring and abject failure.

Anyway, it's hardly fair to compare the rotation anymore now that some kids are starting to fill those roles. I've made my argument.

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Want the human interest stories behind the 2009 Oriole draftees? Matt at Roar From 34 has compiled them all.

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I'm not sure that I've said it before (and he certainly doesn't need the traffic from me!) but the Matt Wieters Facts site (put together by Frost King) is still quite entertaining to me.

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I love me some Old Bay. And I love me some Orioles.

I don't reprint press releases very often but if I was in Baltimore on Saturday, I would be at Camden Yards for this promotion:

OLD BAY SPICES UP CAMDEN YARDS

The Orioles and Charm City Cakes help celebrate the 70th BIRTHDAY of a Baltimore icon.

What:

Cake creator extraordinaire Duff Goldman of Baltimore’s Charm City Cakes will help celebrate the 70th birthday of Baltimore’s own OLD BAY Seasoning prior to the Orioles-Braves game with the unveiling of a larger-than-life cake that replicates the iconic yellow and blue can with the red lid. Duff will also be throwing out the first pitch and the first 10,000 attendees age 15 and over will receive an OLD BAY mallet

When: Saturday, June 13th
Presentation begins at 6:30pm

Where: Baltimore Orioles vs. Atlanta Braves Game
Camden Yards


Background:

For 70 years, this distinctive blend of twelve herbs and spices has been a time-honored taste of summer. Just as the recipe hasn’t changed, neither has the iconic yellow and blue can. Once only enjoyed by a lucky few along the Chesapeake Bay, OLD BAY® Seasoning has gained fans all across the country. Best known as THE seasoning for shrimp, salmon, crab and other seafood dishes, these days, OLD BAY is used to flavor hamburgers, chicken, pizza, pasta, vegetable dishes and more. For information visit www.oldbay.com

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I like Melvin Mora. I have enjoyed watching him through out his Oriole career. But he's done. The Orioles should not pick up his option for the 2010 season. I'll probably harp on that fact as the season goes on but Mora is doing a pretty good job of sealing that fate himself.

Mora is OPSing .653 which puts his bat within shouting distance of Cesar Izturis (.620) and even Felix Pie (.595). But Mora is no longer a great glove or a kid. It's probably going to get worse. Month by month, his OPS has dropped from .940 in April (over 7 games) to .647 in May and a meager .417 in June.

He'll probably play out the year since the Orioles don't have many internal options but 2009 should be his Oriole swansong.

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Some sage words form Rick Dempsey about Jeremy Guthrie:

Usually it is pretty easy for me to watch a pitcher and see what he is doing right or wrong. A lot of times all you have to do is watch the flight and spin of the ball, and it can tell you exactly what you want to know....

From what I've seen, its not just one thing. There's a lot going on right now that nobody can figure out except Jeremy.

Obviously, I don't see every pitch of every game like Rick does (and based on the copious notes and score keeping I saw him taking during the MASN Oriole Blogger Night last month, he's certainly paying close attention) but I was working on a post about Jeremy Guthrie and trying to figure out why he was giving up so many homers this year. After pouring over Pitch F/X data, pitch types, pitch sequence, the counts , his velocity, the types of hitters he's facing...everything I could think of. But there's no common denominator! They're launching home runs off of every kind of pitch he throw without discrimination. It doesn't happen when he's behind in the count. He velocity and control (at least, his walk rates and amount of strikes he throws) are consistent with his first two seasons.

So I've got to go with Rick on this one. It not just one thing...but you would like to think Guthrie can solve it sooner than later.

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It's been a rough week for the Orioles but the Braves have been having trouble scoring runs too. Could this weekend be the remedy for the Baltimore win column?

Let's go O's!

Random Thoughts on the Season So Far...

I have referred to some of the lesser members of the Oriole rotation as "cannon fodder" and Mark Hendrickson filled that role to a T last night in Arlington. Just one of those nights...and it won't be the last.

(Ironically, the O's lost to Kris Benson, a guy who they showed no interest in during the offseason. He's no great shakes but was he really worse than the crew we brought in instead?)

On a bright note, Adam Jones went 2-4 with a double and his second home run and 3 RBI. Lots of raw power from Jones early this season.

Matt Albers was sent to Norfolk earlier in the week...and brought back last night due to injuries to Alfredo Simon and Melvin Mora. Radhames Liz came back too and both he and Albers were part of last night's debacle.

Chad Moeller, Mr. "No-hit, good glove", has thrown out nobody all season. Turns out, he has never been good at keeping runners honest. The best rate he has ever had was last year for the Yankees when he threw out 38% of would-be baserunners. Before that, his success rate was more in the range of the mid-20's. So he's not good at throwing runners out and never has been. Does he call a good game? Does he do all those little things that make a guy an asset in the field? I don't know, haven't seen enough of him. But I suppose he was the best we could get knowing that his day in the bigs are over when Matt Wieters shows up. (On the flip side, he is hitting .364...)

Ummm...Hayden Penn got the win for the Marlins in relief against the Braves last night. He has a 0.00 ERA so far. Just sayin'.

Mora was swinging a hot bat before his injury and Ty Wigginton will see the lion's share of the work. There's no real silver lining to Mora's injury like Scott Moore or Robert Andino getting a look there. It just sucks.

6-3 is nothing to sneeze at but it's an ugly 6-3. Did we really expect any better?

The good news: Jeremy Guthrie on the mound against Brad Penny and we finally get the heck out of Arlington.

Oriole Power 2008 - A Retrospective

Just finishing up a few fillers while waiting for Opening Day...

I never followed up on this mid-year post that examined Baltimore sluggers using data from HitTrackerOnline.com....so here it is.

Home run leaders for 2008:

            HR
Huff        32
Mora        23
Scott       23
Markakis    20
Millar      20
 

Now, who hit the longest shots of 2008?

Top home runs by Standard Distance:

             Distance    Date
Scott          450      5/20/08
Scott          437      9/8/08
Jones          435      9/1/08
Markakis       434      8/30/08
Huff           429      8/24/08
 

Look at Adam Jones in there with the big boys. He's got a lot of potential to hit 20+ very soon.

Who hit the longest home runs on average? Give them the Golden Sledgehammer!

Golden Sledgerhammer

            Avg. Distance
Scott          401.6
Huff           394.6
Mora           390.5
Markakis       388.9
Millar         372.5
 

Now for three classifications of home runs: No Doubts, Just Enoughs and Lucky. The names are pretty self-explanatory but if you want to see how Hit Tracker determines this, look here.

No Doubts

         HR
Scott    11
Huff      7
Markakis  3
Mora      2
Millar    2
 

Raw power. Look at Luke Scott! Nearly 50% of his homers were never in question. See Nick Markakis? Make a note of that while we look at the next category.

Just Enoughs

             HR
Huff         11
Mora         10
Millar        9
Markakis      9
R. Hernandez  8
 

Nearly half of Markakis' homers were just making it over the fence. Why? He's a line drive hitter, not a classic power hitter. That's why I don't think Nick will ever hit 30 homers regularly; he's just not that type of hitter even though he might have the power to do so. I don't think that's a bad thing either.

Lucky Homers

              HR
Markakis       5
Millar         4
R. Hernandez   4
Huff           4
Mora           2
 

And just for kicks, let's take a look at the Isolated Power leaders.

ISO

            ISO
Huff       .247
Scott      .215
Mora       .199
Markakis   .185
Millar     .160
 

Mora's ISO is startling, we haven't seen power out of Mora like this in years. From FanGraphs.com, Melmo's ISO compared to league average from the past few years.

Mora's power was up in the 2004-2005 range again. Can he maintain it for one last season?

The Rotation, the WBC and a Man Named Eugene

A few thoughts from a weekend spent trapped indoors...

- The Netherlands pulled off a 3-2 upset win over the loaded Dominican Republic Team on Saturday and a couple former Orioles played a hand in the win. Sidney Ponson did not pitch that impressively but threw well enough to hold the D.R. hitters to 2 runs over 4 innings.

Former Oriole prospect Eugene Kingsdale went 2-4, scoring a run and playing a good rightfield. Kingsdale, now 32, still has very impressive speed.

- Miguel Tejada may no longer be an offensive force but he is still an underrated fielder. He looked particularly good at third for the D.R. on Saturday. (Tejada also hit a solo shot in the game...)

- I saw Mike Costanzo playing third for Team Italy on Saturday as well. Most scouts think he'll have to move off of third to play in the majors but he looked great to me. He was rangy and smooth out there. Admittedly, this is the first time I've ever seen him play. Maybe the throws to first are wild? Costanzo also went 1-4 with a double.

- Venezeula was starting the left side of the Oriole infield with Melvin Mora and Cesar Izturis. You got the feeling that this is not the first time they have played together. I suppose good chemistry is better than bad for the 3B-SS relationship. I wonder if Mora will play close to the line this year knowing that Izturis has better range than, say, Luis Hernandez?

- I'm a big fan of Scott Moore and he's tearing the cover off the ball in Spring Training for the second straight year. Can we find this guy a spot on the bench? Chris Gomez is hardly tearing it up. If a four man bench comes to fruition, I like Moore. We can always call up Gomez from Norfolk in case of injury...

- Andy MacPhail said that Wieters would have to hit .800 in Spring Training to head north with the team. He's currently hitting .471. I don't think he's going to make it.

- The rotation is beginning to take shape, if not by way in inclusion then by exclusion. Dave Trembley has said that Brad Hennesey and John Parrish have missed too much time to compete for a spot in the rotation. It's not as if these two had good shots to begin with but now we can move on to other candidates.

- Speaking of candidates, Mr. Reluctant went 3 2/3 scoreless against the Twins on Sunday. Many seem starkly opposed to Baez making the rotation but I have no problem whatsoever with him serving as cannon fodder during the first couple months of the season. Better that his psyche is damaged as opposed to David Hernandez and Brad Bergesen.

The Crystal Ball '09: Melvin Mora

Friends, Baltimoreans, O's fans, lend me your ears;
I come to bury Melmo, not to praise him;
The outs that batters make live after them,
The bunt singles are oft interred with their bones,
So let it be with Melmo...
Melmo was ambitious with his fielding:
If it were so, it was a grievous fault,
And grievously hath Melmo answered it...

This is probably Melvin Mora's final season in Baltimore and it will probably be time for him to go. Since the end of 2004, Mora has been in decline. You shouldn't really expect much out of a 37-year old third baseman. I mean, he had a nice year in 2008 but that's just a lat hurrah for an old vet. Surely he'll regress back to his normal declining self in 2009. 2008 was a fluke. Right?

Since 1954, third basemen age 37 or over whose OPS+ was greater than 100:

         OPS+    Age
Schmidt      142     37
T. Fernandez 124     37
Nettles      120     40
Boggs        119     37
Nettles      119     38
Rose         119     37
B. Robinson  113     37
G. Gaetti    108     37

First, I would like The Warehouse to take note that the only player on this list who was an above-average hitter after their age 37 season: the freakish Graig Nettles. I have faith that Andy MacPhail will decline that club option for Mora for the 2010 season...

Second, excepting Nettles, there were only six other third basemen who were above-average hitters during their age 37 season in the last 54 years. Four are (or should be) Hall of Famers. Gary Gaetti's age 37 season was his last hurrah, at least as a third baseman. I suppose Mora could have another good season ala Tony Fernandez...but it's a real long shot. It just doesn't happen very often.

And Mora does NOT have the glove to make up for a slumping bat. Mora had worked himself into a decent fielder in recent seasons but he has been slipping. He wasn't the worst fielding third baseman baseball last season...but there was only one AL regular worse than him in 2008.

Still...his 2008 numbers were no fluke. His BABIP was .289, below his career average and his average on on groundballs was a measly .189. The point is that Mora was legitimately good last season. He was stroking line drives like a madman, he didn't just get lucky. It gives some hope that Melvin puts it together for one more year.

I still think the odds are long on that happening though. Look for a .260/.330/.410 line, something in that neighborhood. Don't be surprised if Wigginton is getting a lot of starts at third toward the end of the year.

Photo by Keith Allison and used under the Creative Commons License 2.0

Five Pleasant Surprises from 2008

1. The Melvin Mora Renaissance - .284/.344/.488, 23 HR, 101 RBI, 117 OPS+

It's almost as if Melvin Mora invented the time machine during the offseason, went back to 2005 and sent that version of himself back to play for the Orioles of 2008. Mora had been given up for dead as far as being a productive major league bat. Outside of A-Rod, he's the most productive third baseman in the American League. The only thing negative to be said about Mora this year is that his play in the field has regressed after two straight seasons of above average glove work.

2. Luke Scott as a Regular - .270/.351/.499, 23 HR, 122 OPS+

The Orioles have been desperate for a respectable leftfielder for years and when they traded Miguel Tejada to the Astros one of the players they got back was a 30 year old platoon player and promptly handed him the starting job. Scott still doesn't hit lefties well but turned in the most productive year of his career and the best season from an Oriole leftfielder since the prime of B. J. Surhoff. A diamond in the rough turned up by Andy Macphail.

3. The Oriole Offense - 5th in Runs, 4th in OPS, 4th in HR

The Oriole offense, as a whole, put on a good show this season. When you consider how impotent the O's bats were in 2007, they put up some surprisingly good numbers in 2008.

4. Aubrey Huff Breaks Out - .314/.371/.576, 32 HR, 106 RBI, 146 OPS+

After three very average years and some offseason controversy, Huff exploded out of the gate in April and has had the best season of his career. Huff provided the offensive spark that fans were hoping for in 2007 and he would make attractive trade bait in the offseason.

5. Jim Johnson Emerges - 68.7 IP, 38 K, 2.23 ERA, 198 ERA+

A starter in the minors, Johnson was called up from Norfolk and placed in the bullpen. He became one of the better setup men in the league and a symbol of the rejuvenated Oriole relief corp.

Honorable Mentions -

George Sherrill - an afterthought in the Erik Bedard trade, George had an up and down year but he made the All-Star team and showed that he can close in this league even if he's not among the elite closers in baseball.

Luis Montanez - the late-bloomer made his major league debut and has hit .310 during his stint with the big club. Perhaps a fourth outfielder/platoon partner for Luke Scott in 2009?

Adam Jones - The Truth was up and down during the season but on the whole played a great centerfield and showed a solid bat for a player that green. Good signs for the future.

Later, Five Big Disappointments from 2008. Those will be much easier to find unfortunately...

Base Hits: 8/28/2008

Work and family are conspiring against me! Just the normal facts of life but don't expect a lot of posting from me until the middle of September...

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Just wanted to spotlight the great job Jake Arrietta did pitching for team USA against China a couple weeks back. 6 shutout innings while striking out 7? Fantastic!

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Yesterday, the Orioles snapped a 5-game skid and won their 63rd game. It was a foregone conclusion in the minds of many in the media that the Orioles would lose 100 games and be the worst team in baseball. They will not lose 100 and are far from the worst team in baseball. This alone is a small victory for the franchise.

Just for the record, the Detroit Tigers were picked to win close to 100 games and perhaps score 1000 runs in 2008. They have exactly 1 more win than Baltimore.

August has been tough (as I predicted) but Baltimore is only 11-14 for the month which has seen them play some very tough competition. If they could somehow take the Tampa series, you would have to consider August an incredible success.

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This is a bit old but here is an interview with Baysox pitcher Chris Tillman from the guys at Baseball Digest Daily Live. Good stuff.

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Speaking of Chris Tillman, ESPN's Keith Law had a scouting report from a recent Baysox game:

Orioles pitching prospect Chris Tillman started last night for AA Bowie at Reading and easily outpitched his somewhat more highly-paid opponent, Adam Eaton.....

Tillman started out throwing 87-88 mph, but then gradually increased his velo to the low 90s, topping out at 93. The right-hander has good life with tailing action on his fastball, and sinks it at 87-88. At 92-93, it flattens out but still has the same tailing action. His best pitch is his curveball, a very sharp breaking ball with some two-plane break and great depth. It moves quickly with tight rotation and looks a lot harder than its 74-77 mph velocity. He throws a changeup with good tumbling action, but he doesn't use it often or show much feel for it yet.

Aside from a hook at the start of his delivery, he's pretty clean overall, staying over the rubber well and then driving forward with a long stride, taking advantage of his long legs. He gets good downhill plane on almost everything he throws and keeps his head steady through the delivery.

Where Tillman fell short of absolute top-prospect status was in his command. He looks the part, with his clean delivery, but he doesn't locate his fastball welll, not even to a general part of the zone. He misses bats because his curveball is just toxic and because his fastball gets in on hitters quickly, but he needs to be more precise with the latter pitch to succeed in the big leagues.

And a couple comments about Matt Wieters:

Catcher Matt Wieters homered on the first pitch he saw from Eaton last night, an 84 mph nothing-ball on the outer half that Wieters spit on and sent out to left-center (the opposite field, since he was batting left-handed). Wieters, the game's top hitting prospect, has gotten significantly stronger since he was an amateur; at Georgia Tech he was wiry strong, but had room on his frame to add muscle, which he's done fairly quickly. His sheer size, not a lack of skill, might make him a little more questionable behind the plate long-term, but he looks like he's going to hit for 30-plus home run power.

Good news from the farm...

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MelMo batting line for August: .427/.463/.781

That's good for a 1.244 OPS. More on this later but this may be the best month Mora has had in his career....

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Matt Wieters is coming....

Terry Crowley and Oriole DH's Over The Years

Enchanting Sunshine made a comment on one of my previous posts about Aubrey Huff and how he's having one of the better seasons ever for an Oriole DH. "Where was Terry Crowley?", she wondered.

I only included players that qualified for the batting title. Crowley never did. So I changed the criteria to include Crowley in the assessment. Here it is:

             Year  OPS+
T. Crowley   1979  154
H. Baines    1999  150
H. Baines    1995  142
H. Baines    1993  137
A. Huff      2008  136
K. Singleton 1981  135
J. Dwyer     1987  131
K. Singleton 1983  131
S. Horn      1991  130
T. Crowley   1980  130
 

Crowley only played in 61 games in 1979 but he made the most of his at bats. He was perhaps more impressive in 1980 when he playe din 92 games, still hitting at a high level.

Look, it's Sam Horn! You think Weaver would've loved having Horn on his bench? Horn could've been the Terry Crowley of the 90's.

Huff has fallen off the pace a bit since last week but still finishes in the top 5 of all-time.

E.S. also wondered about Huff coming through for the team this year. Luke Scott has a lot of big hits but who's had the biggest hits for the club this year?

Total WPA leaders for the 2008 Baltimore Orioles:

           WPA
Huff       1.87
Roberts    1.40
Mora       1.35
Markakis   1.00
Scott      0.56
 

Surprised to see Luke Scott so low? I sure was.

Huff has loomed large overall (he has been uncharacteristically consistent all year) but Melvin Mora at number 3? Has the Melmosity been peaking and I haven't noticed?

(BTW, from 1979-1981, Crowley had 78, 266 and 166 plate appearances respectively. He posted WPAs of 1.19, 2.00 and 1.50 respectively. Crazy numbers for a guy who played so little. Per at bat, he may be the clutchiest player in Oriole history.)

The biggest hits of the year by measure of WPA:

10 - Adam Jones - 6/29 - .351 WPA

Down by a run in the top of the 12th, The Truth singles home Markakis to tie up the Nats.

9 - Ramon Hernandez - 6/14 - .388 WPA

Two outs in the bottom of the 9th, Hernandez singles home Freddie Bynum to tie up the Pirates.

8 - Ramon Hernandez - 4/12 - .405 WPA

Down to their last out, Hernandez gives the Orioles life by hitting a solo shot to tie the game against Houston.

7 - Luke Scott - 7/19 - .414 WPA

With one out in the bottom of the 10th, Scott homers to tie the game.

6 - Melvin Mora - 4/17 - .418

Two outs in the ninth and the score ties, Mora singles Roberts home off Bobby Jenks to win the game.

5 - Ramon Hernandez - 7/19 - .431

Walk-off homer against Joe Zumaya to defeat the Tigers.

4 - Brian Roberts - 6/15 - .489

Walk-off homer against Matt Capps to defeat the Pirates.

3 - Melvin Mora - 6/17 - .556

Down 5-6 in the bottom of the 8th with 2 out, Mora doubles to center scoring Adam Jones and Brian Roberts.

2 - Aubrey Huff - 5/27 - .611

Down 7-6 in the bottom of the 8th to the Rays, Huff doubles in Kevin Millar and Mora to give the O's the lead.

1 - Aubrey Huff - 4/2 - .617

In the bottom of the 11th, Huff doubles to the wall off of Yankee reliever (and Oriole badmouther) LaTroy Hawkins. Mora comes all the way from 1st to score the winning run.

Who would have thought that Huff had the two biggest hits all season? Not I. Luke Scott only shows up once. Ramon Hernandez shows up three time lending creedence to my belief that he is having a better season than the boxscore shows. (Not that it matters much. Matt Wieters approaches.) Mora on both lists may indicate that he is having a better year than I thought as well. More to dwell on later...

E.S. also said, "I guess that's why it's better to not rely on perceptions." Well, not necessarily!

Earlier in the year, George Sherrill was being compared by many to Don Stanhouse (especially by E.S.) so I took a look at where Sherrill ranked among other "nailbiter" closers in Oriole history. At the time, he did not make the Top Ten based on my criteria. Now he is in a statistical dead heat with Stanhouse's 1978 season in terms of WHIP. That puts him as the #5 nailbitingest closer in Oriole history.

Sometimes perception is correct regardless of what the numbers say!

But eventually, the numbers tend to catch up.

Base Hits: 3/26/2008

The thing I love most about the list of Oriole blogs I present to the left of your computer screen is that nearly all of them write far better than I do. ("All of them actually write far better than you do.", I'm sure at least some of you are thinking...) Case in point, Enchanting Sunshine's post reminiscing about Opening Day in Baltimore from the unique perspective of growing up quite literally in the shadow of Memorial Stadium. It's nostalgic, beautiful and a must-read. And she even has the good sense to pair Sam Adams with that Esskay frank. Lovely.

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My head tells me to ignore Spring Training stats, at least as a rule. My heart has me wondering if Melvin Mora is about to have a revivial of his largely dormant skills at the plate.

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ESPN's Rob Neyer has put together a list of the top 50 players over the next 5 years. Nick Markakis and Adam Jones both made the list.

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I really hope that Roch is reading this wrong but it certainly appears that Jay Gibbons is going to bump somebody off of this team (perhaps Scott Moore) that really belongs here far more than he does.

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The Orioles need to go out and sign Alex Cintron and cut Luis Hernandez loose. Cintron has elected to become a free agent instead of accepting a minor league reassignment after not making the Cubs roster out of Spring Training. Cintron can still field well, plays SS, 2B and 3B and has a fair bat. He's an upgrade at short for now and can serve as a utility man once a better option is found.

The Crystal Ball '08: The Rest

Anyway, onward and upward. I'm not blogging about any more trades until they are actually announced. We'll see how long I can stick to that resolution...



Now we look at the rest of the expected roster for the Orioles. Since there are so many holes in the lineup, so many roles that seem unsettled (and so many trades that have yet to happen) most of these players won't warrant a full post simply because it is difficult to know how much they will play and where.


Melvin Mora

There's not much to say about Mora at this point in his career. He'll be 36 this season and offensively, he's been in steady decline over the last three seasons. There's even question as to how much he'll get to play with Scott Moore potentially pushing for playing time. Look for Mora to hit about .270 with 15 homers and OPS about .750. Mora's real strength at this point is that he seems to have learned to field his position. He had his finest defensive year at 3B in 2007 and was actually a pleasure to watch.


Kevin Millar

Millar will also be 36 this season but since so much of his value comes from his patience at the plate, I don't see his overall production dipping much. He set a career high for walks last season and hit 15 homers. He will bring much needed patience to a lineup that needs some and don't be surprised if he finishes with a higher OPS than Spanky Huff...again. At half the price.


Jay Payton

What few skills Payton had as a baseball player have begun to erode and he was pretty bad as a regular in leftfield. But he can still hit lefties and it would be nice if he was platooned with Luke Scott in left and Tike Redman (or whoever) in center. We have to pay the guy for 2008 anyway, we may as well let him do the one thing he can do well. Earl Weaver would do it. If he's deployed properly, I could see him hitting .280 and getting on base at a .350 clip making him a pretty useful roleplayer.


Luis Hernandez

Don't let the .290 average from last season fool you. He only batted .250 in 6 minor league seasons so I expect him to be hitting sub-.250 for most of the season. He doesn't walk either. His defense had better be great.


Jay Gibbons

Coming back from injury, it is unclear what role he will have on this team. To stay healthy, he will need to be limited to DH and will have to battle it out with Millar and Huff for at bats. Will he get enough plate appearances to work out his swing? He will need very poor production and/or injuries to others to get a significant amout of playing time. I compared him to Rico Brogna last season. Brogna was out of baseball by the time he was 32. Gibbons is heading down that path.


Adam Lowen

A veritable rookie coming back from injury with a pin in his throwing elbow? Who knows? Can you tell me what to expect from this guy?


Luke Scott

I'm going with the platoon theory here and guess that Scott will get something in the neighborhood of 400 AB. He'll get on-base at a .350 clip, he'll strikeout over 100 times and he'll slug in the neighborhood of .500. You know how many regulars we had slugging .500 on last year's roster? None, brother. Not one. Please platoon this guy with Payton in left. It would be almost perfect...

Base Hits: 12/24/2007

I have to apologize to Brian Roberts. I gave Roberts and his supporters a hard time when the Mitchell Report was released as everyone tried to explain away the flimsy evidence that was presented against him. I kept trumpeting the fact that Roberts was reportedly (according to the L.A. Times) named in the Jason Grimsley affidavit as well and that this was more than pure coincidence. Well, last week the affidavit was unsealed and the Times printed this retraction:

Baseball: A front-page article on Oct. 1, 2006, incorrectly reported that in a search warrant affidavit filed in May 2006 in federal court in Phoenix, an investigator alleged that pitcher Jason Grimsley named former teammates Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Brian Roberts and Jay Gibbons as players linked to performance-enhancing drugs. In the affidavit, which was unsealed Thursday, Grimsley did not name those players. The article also said Grimsley alleged that Miguel Tejada had used steroids. The only mention of Tejada in the affidavit was as part of a conversation with teammates about baseball's ban on amphetamines. The Times regrets the error.

Even though Brian has since admitted a dabbling in steroids once, it was unfair for me to characterize him the way I did based on an erroneous report. So I apologize for taking that report as fact.

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According to MLB Rumor Central on ESPN.com, the Brian Roberts to the Cubs and the Erik Bedard to the Mariners deals are not dead yet (at least as of Friday). Despite assertions to the contrary, I believe that Andy MacPhail will still be shopping Erik Bedard aggressively and I will be shocked if he is indeed the Opening Day starter for Baltimore in 2008. We shall see.

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Melvin Mora is squawking about moving to the outfield again. And I quote:

"I'm a third baseman. I won't play no left field [for the Orioles]. They traded [Miguel] Tejada for a left fielder," said Mora, referring to former Houston Astro Luke Scott. "Check my numbers. You can see where I play."

OK, let's check the numbers then.

Melvin Mora Homeruns 2007: 14 - 13th out of 14 AL 3B

Melvin Mora BA 2007: .274 - 8th out of 12 qualifying AL 3B

Melvin Mora OPS 2007: .759 - 8th out of 12 qualifying AL 3B

And even with the improvement in his fielding, Mora is still in the bottom third is just about every fielding metric you can reference.

However, if you put that production out in LF those are not bad numbers among AL LF. Thanks for being a team player Mel.

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It's merely a satire but I found this article about Kris and Anna Benson pretty funny.

Base Hits: 11/28/2007

After engaging in a little double speak about changing positions earlier this offseason, Melvin Mora will reportedly play winter ball in Venezuela and split time between third base and the outfield. Less than a month ago Mora stated the following about moving off of third base:

"I don't want to play those games," he said. "I'm one of the best third basemen in the American League and in baseball. If you are going to move me, you have to make the team more competitive."

I guess someone forgot to tell him at the time that moving to left would make the O's more competitive. You know, filling a gaping hole in left and allowing better production at third (Tejada) as well as improving defense and perhaps a steady bat at short (Hernandez). Nice to see that he finally got the message...

***

I never weighed in on the Aubrey Huff nonsense but since Andy McPhail is still pondering punishment, I'll beat this dead horse a little more.

I have Sirius radio and although I don't listen to Bubba the Love Sponge, I do listen to Howard Stern and have an idea of what goes down on Bubba's show. Imagine the uncensored Howard Stern program...only rawer and more profane. That pretty much sums it up.

I don't think anything Aubrey talked about on Bubba's show was in bad taste. OK, it was in really bad taste but I don't think I was surprised at the activities Aubrey described. I was in the Navy and when hanging out with a bunch of single guys of the ages of 18-30, I'd say about 75% of us were involved in at least one of the activities Huff spoke about. Chasing women? Watching porn? Drinking? Hanging out with strippers and porn stars? Is anyone really shocked that single professional ballplayers engage in such activities? I'm not. I would imagine the 75% rule applies to them too.

His comments about Baltimore seemed to stem from questions about the nightlife and on that point, Aubrey's absolutely correct. Fell's Point is great but it's not Ybor City by a long shot.

That being said, maybe Aubrey needs to familiarize himself more with the batting cages and less with the watering holes and meat markets next season...

***

Former Oriole player and manager Davey Johnson will be up for election to the Baseball Hall of Fame as a manager, not a player.

***

Talks between the Dodgers and Orioles have stalled as Baltimore would rather sign Erik Bedard long term than trade him. I don't spend much time speculating on trades but Matt Kemp would be a wonderful addition if Bedard cannot be signed.

Keys To The Season Revisited: Final

1. The O's lower their ERA by a full run this season



The team ERA last year was 5.35 so the target was 4.35. While that looked attainable for most of the year, the team finished at 5.19 and Leo Mazzone got fired. The pitching staff still has a long, long way to go and improvement was going to be the biggest key to a winning 2007. Instead, it imploded and the Baltimore Orioles lost nearly 100 games.



2. Markakis hits 25



Markakis only hit 23 but 25 was only a quick reference to imporved slugging for the young rightfielder. Markakis hit 43 doubles in addition to leading the team in homers and slugged near .500 (.485). Mission accomplished, Nick has arrived as the best all-around hitter on the team.



3. Increased production from LF



Orioles leftfielders OPS'ed .631 in 2007...down from the historically bad number of .681 set in 2006. Centerfield (mainly Corey Patterson) production regressed as well. Bad stuff in the outfield if you're not named Markakis. Putrid.



4. Melvin Mora circa 2004....or at least 2005



OK, 2004 was right out the window. And so was 2005. Although he wasn't as bad as as he was in 2006, he wasn't much better in 2007. Outside of much improved glovework at the hot corner, Melvin brought little to the table in 2007. Failed.



5. Health



Ramon Hernandez was played injured most of the year. Miguel Tejada and Melvin Mora went down for awhile. Bedard and Gutherie missed significant time and Kris Benson, Adam Loewen and Jaret Wright never got started. No dice.



1 out of 5 equals 69 wins.

Sweet Victory

For a change, it's the O's coming from behind to win!





Two dramatic victories on Friday and Sunday capped a series win over the AL East leading Red Sox. Games like these are great on their own but are also fun for WPA graphs. Here's a couple. First, Friday's game. (I wonder if Red Sox fans are calling it the S'mores Day Massacre...)





The O's were dead to rights after the top of the 8th. Boston had given itself a 95% chance to win before the O's rallied to tie it up. (Thanks Eric Gagne...) Roberts and Mora delivered the big blows as far as WPA.



Now to Sunday...



Circumstances were not quite as dire but again in the bottom of the 8th the O's rally against Gagne to tie it up and win it in extras. As big as Millar's homer was, it was Tejada and Huff with the biggest clutch hitting of the game with Danys Baez getting the most crucial outs of the game.

The only negative of the series was that the Yankees have pulled within 4 games of the Red Sox with Baltimore's win. I don't care about the Red Sox but I've never been able to work up a good hatred for them like I have for the Yankees and Blue Jays, maybe because the Sox and O's haven't had title runs at the same time in the last 25 years. Outside of their annoying fatalism (at least from native New Englanders) I really have nothing against them. So Baltimore needs to smack down the Yankess over the next three days to even up the score...

Mora Flashes the Glove

Since he made a great play yesterday, I thought I'd check in with Melvin Mora's defensive prowess this year. He's second among AL thirdbasemen in Fielding Percentage, first in Range Factor and 5th in the league at reaching balls out of his zone, even with the lost time to injuries. Mora's fielding, if not his bat, has been a reason to watch the O's this season.

Gibbons Is Done

Mercifully, Jay Gibbon's 2007 season has been put out of its misery when the team put him on the DL for season ending shoulder surgery. While I guess it's a silver lining that some of his offensive woes could be due to injury, he certainly wasn't hitting before the May injury either. Jay will have to make a remarkable comeback and have a huge spring if he hopes to don the black and orange in 2008.