And Now A Word From Our Sponsor...

I don't really blog as a commercial venture. It's nothing more than a hobby and a form of therapy after 11 straight losing seasons. But if I can find someway for this blog to pay for my various baseball related subscriptions for the year, that would be nice too.

So for the holidays, here's something I am trying to achieve that end and maybe you guys will find it useful too. There's a sports merchandise website called BigFlySports.com and I have a free shipping code to pass along to you. The code, CALRULES, gives you free shipping on your order and gives me a little something on the side. They have a lot of Baltimore Orioles gear along with other MLB licensed items. Call me crazy but I am partial to the 1960's era mini batting helmet. So, take a look and please use the CALRULES code for free shipping on your order.

Thanks...

Mike Mussina...He Was There for The Ripken Years

Mike Mussina has retired. As long as he stays retired, Dempsey's Army forgives all. The Warehouse mismanaged the whole situation with Moose and although I wish he wouldn't have signed with the Yankees...it's all water under the bridge.

He was the best Oriole pitcher since Jim Palmer retired and he was homegrown. He was one of ours and his best seasons came with Baltimore, not the Yankees.

So, a couple of items to look at from Mussina's long career. Is he a Hall of Famer? Hmmmm....

            ERA+
Clemens     145
R. Johnson  137
Maddux      132
Schilling   127
Smoltz      127
K. Brown    127
Mussina     122
Glavine     118
Finley      115
 

Compared to his peers, Mussina's ERA+ pales a bit against the elite. Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux are head and shoulders above the rest. (So is Pedro Martinez but he fell just short of my 3000 IP criteria.)

The next level give Schilling, Smoltz and Kevin Brown. Schilling and Smoltz will get a lot of consideration from their stellar postseason accomplishments and if there was question about their credentials form the regular season. Kevin Brown is not a Hall of Famer.

Then there's Mussina, Tom Glavine and Chuck Finley. Glavine has 300 wins and like it or not, he's in with nothing else considered. Chuck Finley is not a Hall of Famer. Is Mussina? In that company?

Strikeouts among his peers:

              SO
R. Johnson   4789
Clemens      4472
Maddux       3371
Martinez     3117
Schilling    3116
Smoltz       3011
Mussina      2813
Cone         2668
Finley       2610
Glavine      2607
 

Again, there's the first tier of Johnson and Clemens, the second tier of Maddux, Martinez, Schilling and Smoltz, then there's Mussina. He's on top of the third tier but stil third tier.

Wins:

            Wins
Maddux       355
Clemens      338
Glavine      305
Johnson      295
Mussina      270
Moyer        246
 

The wins will help Mussina's case more than anything.

Other points in Mussina's favor that will not be considered by the BBWA: 1.98 BB/9, 1.192 WHIP, 3.58 K/BB ratio, 7.11 K/9.

My gut feeling is that now that he has added a 20 win season and he played for many years in the top media market he will get in eventually.

Now, in my estimation, the top five pitching performances by Michael Cole Mussina for the Baltimore Orioles:

#5 - July 17th, 1992 - Texas Rangers

In his first full season, Mussina mowed down a lineup of fearsome sluggers, striking out 10 and allowing but one hit during a complete game shutout. Kevin Brown took the loss. There is no story here, just pure, methodical domination

          IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  HR
Mussina  9.0  1  0   0   1  10  0

 

#4 - September 13th, 1997 - New York Yankees

The second place Yanks were making a charge at AL East leading Baltimore and had won the first two games of a four game set. Enter Mike Mussina. He struck out 9 and only gave up 1 unearned run over 9 strong innings. He beat Kenny Rogers and gave the Orioles a bit more of a cushion over a team would only finish two games behind them as they went wire-to-wire and won the AL East.

          IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  HR
Mussina  9.0  3  1   0   1   9   0

 

#3 - August 1st, 2000 - Minnesota Twins

Two bad teams faced off this day but Mussina was hardly mailing it in. He struck out a career high 15, including punching out David Ortiz three times. The starter for the Twins was not Kenny Rogers.

          IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  HR
Mussina  9.0  1  0   0   2  15   0


 

#2 - May 30th, 1997 - Cleveland Indians

In a sign of things to come...sort of, Mussina would outduel Charles Nagy as the O's won a faceoff of division leaders, 3-0. Moose one-hit a team whose lineup featured at least two future Hall of Famers (Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez) and multiple All-Star caliber hitters (Matt Williams, David Justice, Omar Vizquel, Julio Franco).

          IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  HR
Mussina  9.0  1  0   0   0  10   0


 

#1 - October 15th, 1997 - Cleveland Indians

In Game 6 of the ALCS, Moose gave his all on the mound and he and Charles Nagy both left zeros on the scoreboard when they exited the game. Mussina struck out 10 again and surrendered a lone hit but the bullpen gave up the go ahead run in the 11th and the dreams of an Oriole World Series were dashed. But it sure wasn't Mike's fault.

          IP  H  R  ER  BB  SO  HR
Mussina  8.0  1  0   0   2  10   0


 

Photo courtesy of the Baltimore Sun

BHI: Palmiero, Dempsey and Surhoff

What's BHI? Look here...

Rafael Palmeiro - 223 Oriole Career Homers

Although the steroid scandal tends to overshadow his Oriole career, Rafael Palmeiro was signed in 1994 with Miguel Tejada-like hype and largely lived up to it during his Oriole career, at least the first stint. Less than 25% of his homers came during "garbage time" and less than 47% of his homers came with nobody on base. (The major league average is about 58%...) More than half his total home runs wither put the O's ahead or tied the game and there were 4 walk-offs. His BHI puts him on-par with the Oriole immortals.

BHI - 469

Rick Dempsey - 65 Oriole Career Homers

I almost hated to do this to the namesake of my blog. Even though Dempsey had a lot of big hits in the postseason, I didn't think he would acquit himself well in this survey of regular season home runs.

But he fares OK for a guy with only 65 career homers for Baltimore. Although he hit a ton of solo shots, very few came during "garbage time" (less than 25%) and nearly half of his homers were game tying or go ahead shots. The lack of walk-off homers renders him fairly average.

BHI - 136

B.J. Surhoff - 120 Oriole Career Homers

Shockingly, B.J. Surhoff is now the reigning Oriole king of the Garbage Homer.

Why? Just over 62% of his homers were solo shots and only 32% of his homers either tied the game and put Baltimore ahead. But the killer was that more than a third of all his homers came during "garbage time", mostly when the Orioles were either up or down by 4 runs or more.

I didn't even know this was possible but Surhoff gets a BHI that is negative.

BHI - -64

BHI Leaders - Oriole Career
Brooks Robinson - 495
Eddie Murray - 469
Rafael Palmeiro - 469
Larry Sheets - 266
Chris Hoiles - 240
Brian Roberts - 224
Cal Ripken - 197
Brady Anderson - 138
Rick Dempsey - 136
Jay Gibbons - 42
B.J. Surhoff - -64

Base Hits: 11/14/2008

Aubrey Huff has won the 2008 Silver Slugger award for DH and deservedly so. Before the season, I described Huff as a "hitter in decline" but I was wrong, at least for last year.

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The West Oahu Canefires will play in the Hawaiian League Championship game on Sunday. Oriole prospects haven't had a lot to do with their success (Tim Bascom, for instance, has been horrible) with the bright spot being 3B Tyler Henson hitting .261 with 16 RBI and a team high 25 walks. Adam Loewen plays for the Canefires too. He is hitting .143 with no extra base hits. And he's been hit by a pitch three times in just 8 games. Good!

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Sarasota has hammered out a proposal worth more than $30 million to become the Spring Training home for the Baltimore Orioles after two days of meetings with Oriole officials. The offer has yet to be voted on by the Lee County Commission before the offer is official.

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Former Oriole manager and universal sad-sack Sam Perlozzo has joined the Charlie Manuel's staff with the Philadelphia Phillies. God help them.

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A clip from Dave Sheinin's Nationals Journal blog as the free agent season begins. (The Nationals seem to think they have a legitimate shot at signing Mark Teixeira...oookay...)

*The Nationals' chief competitors might be just up the road in Baltimore. Someone who speaks to Peter Angelos regularly told me that he has never seen him so fixated on a player as he is on Teixeira. Others have told me that Angelos has been asking everyone in baseball what they think of Teixeira.

My educated guess is that the Orioles will end up making the highest bid for Teixeira.

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Song of the Week: Bringing a little country feel into the mix with the excellent alt country band out of Athens, GA, Drive-By Truckers with "Gravity's Gone" Have a nice weekend.

More BHI Analysis

There is close to nothing going on in the world of the Orioles so...time to look at some more Orioles and discern their Big Homer Index (BHI). What's BHI? It's a made up stat that examines who hits the clutch homer and the homer in "garbage time". Look here if you want to see how I determine the score.

Eddie Murray - 343 Oriole HR

I filtered Eddie's homers to only include his Oriole career, both stints. Eddie only hit solo shots just over 50% of the time which is a pretty good number. And nearly 48% of his homers either tied the game or put the Orioles ahead. Add to that the 7 Game Ending homeruns and his clutch homer stats are stellar. He's right up there behind Brooks Robinson on the BHI scale.

BHI - 469

Brian Roberts - 61 Oriole HR

Roberts' career with the Orioles isn't over...yet. But with the possibility of his exodus from Baltimore, I thought it was as good a time as any to put him under the BHI microscope.

Even though he has only 61 career homeruns, his percentage of Go Ahead and Tying homeruns is a Murray-like 47%. A ton of solo shots but he is a leadoff hitter and has a game winner under his belt. To compare him to another lead-off hitter, Brady Anderson, he actually acquits himself quite well. B-Rob doesn't hit many but he tends to make them count.

BHI - 138

Larry Sheets - 84 Oriole HR

A shooting star, Sheets was a heck of a slugger but had trouble with consistency. However, he didn't hit a ton of solo homers, more than half came with men on base. But only 30% of his homers tied or put the O's ahead and close to 40% came in garbage time. Three walk-off homers bring Larry up to respectability.

BHI - 266

So, the new list...

BHI Leaders - Oriole Career
Brooks Robinson - 495
Eddie Murray - 469
Larry Sheets - 266
Chris Hoiles - 240
Brian Roberts - 224
Cal Ripken - 197
Brady Anderson - 138
Jay Gibbons - 42

If the offseason continues to be this quiet, there will be quite a few more of these posts!

Dunn vs. Teixeira: A Closer Look

Desert O of Weaver's Tantrum suggested that I take a closer look at Teixeira vs. Dunn. There certainly isn't anything else going on as far as the Orioles are concerned...so here it is.

I decided to look at the last four years for the two players. All stats cumulative for the last four seasons and rankings are compiled for MLB OF, 1B and DHs (As an aside, Teixeira and Dunn will both be 29 for the 2009 season.)

The lines for each player for the last four seasons:

Teixeira   .299/.389/.550
Dunn       .254/.381/.524
 

Dunn seems lacking from those numbers alone, mostly based on his batting average, an average that is incorporated into the slugging and on-base averages too.

Let's look more closely at one of Dunn's other shortcomings, his strikeouts.

SO

Dunn       691
Howard     679
.
.
Teixeira   457
 

Dunn is the clear leader in strikeouts over the past four years, only Ryan Howard comes close. Teixeira is way down on the list at 14th.

However, if you look at it a different way, the strikeouts aren't so bad. Total outs over the last four years:

Outs

10. Teixeira   1700
.
.
16. Dunn       1656
 

How does Dunn manage to come in under Teixeira? Well, if you strikeout, you don't ground into a double play. But mostly it's the insane walk rate.

BB

Dunn       449
Burrell    414
Ortiz      402
.
.
Teixeira   330
 

Dunn walks a ton which puts him squarely in the 100-100 club every year. He is, if you follow this blog, the kind of player I have a soft spot for. It also increases his value over your typical .250 hitter. He simply does not make a lot of outs.

Oh yeah, he can jack 'em too.

Homeruns

Howard     175
Dunn       160
Ortiz      159
Pujols     159
Soriano    144
 

Teixeira is down the list at 139...Dunn holds the advantage in terms of pure power when you take batting average out of the equation as the ISO numbers show.

ISO (Isolated Power)

4. Dunn        .279
.
.
11. Teixeira   .251
 

Next is Runs Created and Extra Bases. Tex is clearly superior here but Dunn is no slouch.

Runs Created

3.  Teixeira   510
.
.
10. Dunn       459
 

Extra Bases

4. Teixeira    305
.
.
11. Dunn       273
 

Who's the better all-around hitter? Teixeira is and I think that's clear. But Teixeira is thought to be looking at contract offers of $23-25 million per year. Dunn, according to most sources, will probably get a deal in the $12-13 million per year range.

Is Teixeira twice as good as Dunn? I don't think so. If you're the Orioles, it's all about value on the free agent market this offseason. Dunn offers some pretty good bang for the buck if you want to avoid the big bidding wars.

Base Hits: 11/7/2008

You know, I always thought that Keith Law of ESPN had extreme views when it came to completely disregarding postseason awards. I'm beginning to come around. This is a quote from Keith in regards to Chase Utley being passed over for a Gold Glove this season. It can be fairly applied to the decision to deny Nick Markakis his first Gold Glove as well:

If GGs weren't already a complete and utter joke, unworthy of even a moment of our attention, then that's where they are now.

I'm really beginning to agree.

I stated earlier this week that Nick might get bumped by Torii Hunter based on rep alone and I was right. But even I didn't see a choice so lame as Ichiro.

Neither Hunter nor Ichiro are bad fielders but they are far from the best. The best argument you can make for them is that they are average. Neither is even close to Markakis. Not even a little bit. See my other post. They're not even in the conversation.

Of course, how could we put much faith in a system that awards Derek Jeter more career Gold Gloves (3) than Cal Ripken (2)?

Rob Neyer, another ESPN baseball writer, probably summed it up best:

It's hard to escape the conclusion that the managers and the coaches just don't give a damn about the process. It's a strange thing, to care more than the actual voters about the Gold Gloves. But year after year, it sure seems like we do.

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The prospects in Hawaii are all playing really bad baseball. It's far too depressing to post about as I can find no silver lining on any of these clouds. The Baltimore Sun's Dean Jones, Jr. offers all the ugly details.

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Also at the Sun, Jeff Zrebiec reports that Mr. Reluctant wants to try to return to the Orioles as a starter next season.

Fine by me. The official slogan for the 2009 Baltimore Oriole rotation should be "We'll Take Anybody". Anybody with one arm and can walk to the mound should get a shot.

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John Sickels had these observations after watching Matt Wieters in the Arizona Fall League:

1) This won't come as a surprise to you, but Matt Wieters is really, really good. He is a cross between Joe Mauer and Mike Piazza. The only things that could hurt him would be injury (always possible) or a really severe case of Young Catcher Stagnation Syndrome (seems unlikely to me).

Nice to hear it!

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What the hell. I'm reviving the Song of the Week. Here's Marah performing "The Dishwasher's Dream". I'll warn you in advance that the lyrics reference "a Yanks winning streak". Have a great weekend!

GM Meetings and Hot Stove Rumors

The Orioles are reported to be one team interested in acquiring San Diego shortstop Khalil Greene (tip of the hat to Jay Trucker of the Baltimore Examiner on that link...).

Rumors swirl during the Hot Stove season so I don't take them too seriously...but this is a HORRIBLE idea! Greene is set to make $6.5 million next season. $6.5 mil for a guy who plays a below average shortstop and has, at best, been an average hitter. And I am being very generous when I describe Greene as an average hitter. And they'll have to give up players, no matter how lowly, to get him.

Why don't you just sign Juan Uribe? They're the same player. They'll both be 29 next season. They both strike out a lot and walk rarely. They both have some decent pop. And you could argue that Uribe has a better glove. And he only made $4.5 mil last season and can be signed as a free agent without giving up prospects.

Don't believe me? Compare Uribe to Greene.

(Keep in mind that Ken Rosenthal has reported the Oriole interest in Greene as well which casts a huge shadow of doubt that any of this is substantial...)

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Brian Roberts continues to be coveted by clubs around the league. The latest team to express interest seems to be the White Sox. GM Kenny Williams loves speedy guys and Brian Roberts would certainly fit that bill.

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I don't get all the A.J. Burnett to the Orioles buzz either. They estimate that he's looking for $15-18 million for a four or five year deal. Is that really what the O's need? I'm no big fan of chasing Mark Teixeira but if you're going to spend in the neighborhood of $20 mil for a free agent, that's where it should be spent.

Burnett has had one healthy season out of three and is on the wrong side of 30. A four year deal? Any team that gives it to him is just begging for that deal to blow up in their face.

Given that Andy MacPhail's philosophy is to develop pitching from within and spend free agent money on position players, I hope there is nothing to the Burnett rumors.

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MLB.com has a video highlighting the Oriole prospects in the AFL. It's here.

Base Hits: November 5, 2008

My dream lineup for the 2009 Baltimore Orioles. Only two rules for this list. A) No trades allowed. There is no way possible to predict what would happen in trades. It would be crazy to predict. But free agents and internal candidates are allowed. B) The key phrase here is "bang-for-your-buck". This team will not contend so there is no reason to break the bank But all these Free Agent pickups are very realistic.

Starting Lineup

C Matt Wieters
1B Adam Dunn
2B Brian Roberts
3B Melvin Mora
SS Adam Everett
RF Nick Markakis
CF Adam Jones
LF Luke Scott
DH Aubrey Huff

Now let me explain...

Wieters has nothing left to prove in the minors. Jump in and swim.

All Adam Dunn does is hit homers, walk and strikeout. Anybody who reads this blog with regularity knows I have a soft spot for 100/100 club guys. Especially when they hit 40 homers a year, every year. Dunn only hit .236 so his value will be diminished and he can learn to play firstbase. You could probably get him for less than $10 million a year for four years (he turns 29 in '09) and he'll give you Mark Teixeira-type production for less than half the salary. Obviously, they are very different players but Dunn is very productive in his own way.

The prospects at shortstop are bleak but if Adam Everett is healthy at least the defensive side of the game would be taken care of. IF he's healthy, you throw $1.5 mil his way for a couple years and watch a modern day Mark Belanger in action. If any town would appreciate Everett's talents, it would be Baltimore. Over the next two years, you look for a better option.

Pitchers


SP Jeremy Guthrie
SP Derek Lowe
SP Braden Looper
SP Josh Fogg
SP Garrett Olson

RP Radhames Liz
RP Jamie Walker
RP Dennis Sarfate
RP Chris Waters
RP Daniel Cabrera
RP Chris Ray
RP George Sherrill

Basically, you make a run at a couple of mid-level free agent pitchers and sign them to reasonable contracts. Lowe and Looper would be at least competent until our prospects are ready and they won't have to be rushed. Next, you bring in every scrapheap pitcher (Odalis Perez, Matt Clement, Livan Hernandez, etc...) you can lay your hands on and hope someone shines in Spring Training. That's where a guy like Josh Fogg comes in. Olson can continue to develop at the bottom of the rotation.

The bullpen continues to be developed from within...

Just my imagination running wild but I think it's a start.

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WHFS 105.7 has gone all-sports as of Monday. Lots of sports talk in Baltimore now but only the new "The Fan" and WNST provide primarily local sports talk. ESPN 1300 will now be exclusively ESPN national programming and newcomer WVIE will have a lot of Fox Sports programming.

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Adam Loewen is hitting .273 thus far in Hawaii. That's higher than any hitting prospect from the Oriole organization in Hawaii. (ujhmn ujhmn tfgv...banging head on keyboard)

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I don't get the perception that former Orioles GM Pat Gillick is some kind of miracle worker in Philly. The core of the Phillies team that just won the World Series was already in place when he took over in 2006! Here's what he did: signed the horrible Pedro Feliz, paid a whole lot of money to Geoff Jenkins to ride the bench, signed Jayson Werth, acquired Jamie Moyer, traded for Joe Blanton and Brad Lidge and signed J.C. Romero.

Pedro Feliz is a horrible hitter. Geoff Jenkins is nice off the bench but overpaid. Jason Werth was a nice pickup but he's an average player at best. Jamie Moyer was a nice pickup. Joe Blanton was fairly effective but he only had to trade for Blanton because the terrible contract he gave to Adam Eaton blew up in his face. Brad Lidge was a good move and Romero panned out well too.

But Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Pat Burrell, Shane Victorino, Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Kyle Kendrink, Ryan Madsen and more were already with the organization. They won the title but only time will tell how ravaged the Phillies farm system is after all Gillick's wheeling and dealing...



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Baseball America has released their scouting report for the Baltimore Orioles. Here's their opinion on the Top Ten Prospects in the Oriole system:

1. Matt Wieters, c
2. Chris Tillman, rhp
3. Brian Matusz, lhp
4. Jake Arrieta, rhp
5. Nolan Reimold, of
6. Brandon Erbe, rhp
7. Billy Rowell, 3b
8. Troy Patton, lhp
9. Brandon Snyder, 1b
10. Kam Mickolio, rhp

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From Keith Law's blog:

The Orioles likely will be players for free agents who are already "motivated to come to Baltimore," meaning players with Maryland ties -- Mark Teixeira and A.J. Burnett. Neither player would block any of the Orioles' many prospects. They would entertain serious offers for catcher Ramon Hernandez, knowing that über-prospect Matt Wieters could easily start the year in the majors and that several contenders are looking for short-term catching solutions. It's not out of the question that they would fast-track their top 2008 draft pick, left-handed starter Brian Matusz, by starting him at AA Bowie, although it's just as likely that he'll begin in the Carolina League, as Wieters and right-hander Jake Arrieta did.

I don't get the whole A.J. Burnett thing. More on that later...

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I was reading Sports Illustrated this week and a writer suggested that the O's should move Brian Roberts to shortstop and pursue a free agent secondbasemen. Dave Trembley has squashed that idea in these comments to Roch Kubatko.

Roberts is a good fielding secondbaseman...but he's 30 and I don't think his range is good enough at this point to play an acceptable shortstop.

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Vero Beach has supposedly made its "final offer" to the Baltimore Orioles to make the old Dodgertown facility their new spring training home. Sarasota, who is losing the Reds and have been spurned by the Red Sox, are targeting the Orioles as well.

A Golden Argument for Nick Markakis

Nick Markakis had a fantastic year with the glove this year. We know it. But we've watched a bunch of Oriole games this season. How many non-Oriole fans can say that?

So Nick's hopes for a Gold Glove rest on word of mouth and the numbers.

Defensive stats are flawed but if you look at the whole spectrum, you start to get an idea of how good Markakis was this year. All stats are for AL corner outfielders.

RZR for AL Corner Outfielders

Drew       .935

Markakis   .925

Crawford   .911

Ibanez     .893

Dye        .887

 

Only J.D. Drew had a better Zone Rating. But...

OOZ (Out of Zone) Plays by AL Corner Outfielders

Markakis   56

Dye        55

Gutierrez  55

Suzuki     50

Rios       50


 

Nick leads the corner outfielders is plays out of his "defensive zone". Great range, great jump on the ball.

BIZ Leaders

Markakis   295

Ibanez     291

Young      275

Abreu      274

Dye        238


 

Fielding Percentage

Dye      .996

Abreu    .993

Markakis .991


 

Fielding Percentage is a very flawed stat since you can't make an error on a ball you didn't get to in the first place. But Markakis is still third in the league with only 3 errors all year despite leading the league in balls hit to his "zone".

Assists

Markakis   17

Young      11

Abreu      10

Anderson    9

Ibanez      9


 

Markakis is far and away the leader in outfield assists. Only B.J. Upton (a centerfielder) is close with 16 assists. Among corner outfielders, he is the undisputed champ.

All of this while leading the league's corner outfielders in innings played.

What else does he have to do?

Nothing.

The only problem is that voters select the Gold Glovers from the entire pool of outfielders so he'll be competing with centerfielders too. At a glance, there are four centerfielders who are worthy of serious consideration: Carlos Gomez (Twins), Grady Sizemore (Indians), our own Adam Jones and B.J. Upton (Rays).

Jones is a rookie and played fewer innings than the others due to his injuries so he is probably out. B.J. Upton led AL centerfielders in assists but didn't show great range and made a fair share of errors. Carlos Gomez had the best overall range and made the most SportsCenter caliber catches. Grady Sizemore was probably the best all-around centerfielder in the AL.

Sizemore and Gomez should win two of the three available Gold Gloves. I can't see Markakis losing to Upton. Only Torii Hunter, based on reputation alone and not current prowess, could jump up and bite him.

Stupider things have happened.

However, I am guessing Nick picks up the first of several Gold Gloves this year. It won't be because he doesn't deserve it.

Base Hits: 10/29/2008

I don't always agree with ESPN's Keith Law but I come to respect his opinion. He's a smart guy when it comes to scouting. In his caht from earlier this week:



Matt J. (Baltimore, MD): Klaw - Wondering if you saw Brandon Snyder at the AFL, and if he can become an everyday 1B for the O's at some point.



Keith Law: Yes, saw him, liked the swing and the raw power, but he needs to show he can drop the head of the bat and get to the ball down. Potential is there for him to be an everyday 1b offensively.



I am pulling for every Oriole prospect but was not that high on the guy given his huge strikeout totals. Law likes him more than I do. Law also seems to like Nolan Reimold a lot more than I didi too. I see these opinions as a good sign that our prospects are viewed in a better light around baseball than we think.



Also from Law:



Greg (philly): Is Ryan Howard turning into a real life Pedro Cerrano?



Keith Law: Haven't seen his locker.



Good line.

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Adam Loewen is a tool.

Yes, baseball is a business. Yes, he was well within his rights to sign with the Blue Jays.

But taking $4 million from the club that was willing to let you re-invent yourself as a hitter when you flamed out as a pitcher? A club that you had a handshake agreement with to re-sign with to sign with a division rival? That's a dirty move. I don't care how long a shot it was that he made it back to the majors. It's rotten.

Your have no honor, Adam. Good day, sir! I said, good day!

*****

The stuff going on out in the winter leagues is just too depressing...more on that later...

Getting to Know Brandon Snyder

Brandon Snyder was the Orioles first round pick in 2005. He was drafted as a catcher but now projects as a corner infielder. After an off 2007, Brandon put together a solid 2008 with the best full season slugging percentage of his career. One of the O's top prospects, he earned a trip to Arizona to play with the other top Baby Birds in the AFL.

(On a side note, the Surprise Rafters, the team the O's prospects play for got beat 28-1 on Monday afternoon. 28-1. Ladies and gentlemen, that's 30-3 for all practical purposes. On the bright side, the lone run came on a Nolan Reimold solo shot.)

Brandon's been hitting the cover off the ball for Surprise, hitting even better than Matt Wieters but not getting the playing time that Matt is. He is blogging from Arizona. I like player blogs. You can learn a lot by reading between the lines. What have I learned?

On the surface, the 21-year old Snyder appears to be pretty grounded and involved with his family. His father was a journeyman major league pitcher and he seems very close to his family. He has interests outside of baseball (cooking, hunting, fishing...hmm, those are all really related aren't they?) and is active in charitable organizations.

Having guns is good. Gives him something in common with Luke Scott, Nick Markakis and, if he stays with the team, Jamie Walker.

Some other tidbits:

Our facilities are UNBELIEVABLE! Our home field is the big league spring training facility of the Rangers and Royals and it is top shelf. It definitely makes you feel like you're in the big leagues when you put on the big league uniform and walk out on a big league field like that.

From this you can glean how crappy the Orioles minor league Spring Training facilities are. They must be really bad. Probably worse than the Ft. Lauderdale site.

Even though we try and get some home cooked meals out here its tuff not being home....My best friend from back home called me to tell me it was opening day of bow season. It stinks not being able to be home for the little things like that but that's the sacrifice that we make to live our dreams. And im sorry if that's a bad example but im sure a lot of you out there will understand what I mean.

That's not an interesting fact in itself but it's just so damn honest! Maybe the most honest thing I've seen a professional athlete write.

I'm rooting for the kid. Hope he blogs some more.

To wrap this up, a comment on this comment left on Brandon's blog.

Brandon,As a fan of baseball I would like to congradulate you on a great season that will hopefully jump-start your big leauge career! As an animal lover I would hope you keep your hunting exploits to yourself! Stick to baseball camps and working on your defense...
By hudsdog@comcast.net

What a tool. The kid can't talk about his hobbies because you are an "animal lover"? Hey Brandon, keep talking about your hunting exploits and do it graphically. I love to see a detailed description of how to field dress a buck. What a dummy this hudsdog is.

(For full disclosure, the guy revealed he is a Red Sox fan later in the comment so he has it coming. And for the record, I don't hunt either...)

Rudy Ray Moore (1927-2008)

R.I.P. Dolemite.

Keep pimpin'...

O.G. Orioles...This Ain't Pretty

Reading this article by Matthew Namee at The Hardball Times got me thinking. Namee hypothetically returns all MLB players to the original organizations they signed with and takes a look at the rosters. He only covered the teams that could field competent major league rosters so, of course, the Orioles were left out of the article. You can guess what comes next.

If you aren't eating anything, take a look at the 2008/2009 Baltimore Orioles 25 man roster consisting only of players originally signed by the club.

The Starting Lineup

C Matt Wieters
1B Jayson Werth
2B Brian Roberts
SS Augie Ojeda
3B Brandon Fahey
RF Nick Markakis
CF Willie Harris
LF Nolan Reimold
DH Gregg Zaun

Wieters would have been rushed to the bigs and along with Roberts and Markakis would be the bright spots in the lineup. Fahey would be forced to play third and former catching prospect (and current Phillies outfielder) Werth would be converted to firstbase.

I figured that the organization would rush Reimold to the majors in lieu of trotting out Alex Ochoa in left. Current Nationals centerfielder Harris would be back in black and orange. Ditto at DH for Rick Dempsey's nephew.

The Bench

C Eli Whiteside
Util Jerry Hairston
Util Mike Fontenot

Whiteside would be the only available option for a backup catcher. Eeesh. Hairston could be the fourth outfielder and Fontenot would be a capable infield backup.

The Rotation

SP Mike Mussina
SP Erik Bedard
SP Daniel Cabrera
SP John Maine
SP Garrett Olson

It's not a great rotation but, given good health, it's better than we have right now! Brian Matusz would still be waiting in the minors for a shot to crack this rotation too. John Maine would be competent in the AL but not great and Mussina would be wrapping up an illustrious Oriole career.

The Bullpen

RHP Jim Johnson
RHP Hayden Penn
LHP John Parrish
RHP Chris Britton
RHP Radhames Liz
RHP Jim Hoey
LHP Arthur Rhodes
RHP Chris Ray

Liz and Penn take the Albers\Johnson route to the bigs and are probably better for it. But overall, the pen is shaky outside of Johnson and Ray. Welcome back Arthur Rhodes!

In conclusion, it's just another example of the Oriole's poor drafting over the years. The inability to develop corner infielders and corner outfielders is especially glaring since those prosepcts are usually to easiest to find!

Also, only two players on this list were signed from outside of the U.S. (Cabrera and Liz). That will have to change if the Orioles hope to return to contention.

Tomorrow, a check in with some of those players that we hope will change that!

O's Spring Training in Ft. Lauderdale for '09...But Then What?

I got a notice in my e-mail informing me that Orioles Spring Training is just around the corner! Pitchers and catchers will report before you know it! (At this point, the obvious joke is, "What pitchers?" but I'll refrain. Oh, and there's only one catcher anyone will be watching at ST 2009...)

Spring Training will remain in Ft. Lauderdale...for this year. I've talked about this before but I am all for the Orioles leaving Ft. Lauderdale for a more attractive location. Ft. Lauderdale is a) a dump, b) so small that the O's minor league camp is across the state in Sarasota and c) is still painted with Yankee colors, the field's previous tenants.

The obvious and attractive choice would be to move into the historic Dodgertown facility in Vero Beach that the Dodgers left vacant after 61 years of spending Spring Training there. But as Ray McNulty opined in the TCPalm, that may not be the only option:

...if the Orioles decide this month to move their spring-training operation to Vero Beach in 2010 -- it will be on their terms and at their price...

Because our Indian River County representatives, elected and otherwise, have botched this thing from the start.

They've bargained from a position of weakness, rather than strength, conducting these negotiations as if the Orioles held all the cards, as if the team would be doing us a favor...

I have to admit, I'm surprised that the county would be so eager to keep a team in Vero Beach. I've always understood that the area has a lot of wealth and that they wouldn't be in a big hurry to have another team move in. But this must be good for the Orioles, right? What did they get by dealing from a perceived position of strength?

They've given the Orioles the upper hand -- first by signing a ridiculously one-sided exclusivity agreement under which the team could continue to talk to Fort Lauderdale but the county couldn't talk to any other teams, then by extending the deadline for accepting their offer until Halloween, thus allowing these negotiations to drag on far too long.

Worse, they've allowed Orioles owner Peter Angelos to use the county's pitch as leverage in simultaneous negotiations with Fort Lauderdale, his team's current spring-training headquarters.

And now that the exclusivity agreement with Indian River County has expired, Angelos is free to talk to any other community interested in becoming the Orioles' spring-training home.

He can talk to Fort Myers, which could lose the Boston Red Sox to Sarasota.
He can talk to Sarasota, which lost the Cincinnati Reds to Arizona and is sure to call the Orioles, if the Red Sox stay in Fort Myers.

So Angelos has options.

If Angelos is truly deeply involved in these negotiations, I have to grudgingly say he's doing a masterful job.

He's going to parlay substandard Spring Training facilities into a) a brand new facility in Ft. Lauderdale, b) a beautiful and historic facility in Vero Beach or c) reunite the whole organization (major and minor league) in Sarasota where the minor league camp is right now. (for now, the Red Sox look like they're staying in Fort Myers....)

If so, there's still a chance the Orioles will bring spring training back to Vero Beach.

But because of the way this thing has been handled, it will be on their terms and at their price.

Lucky us, huh?

So Indian River County may get held hostage by Peter Angelos? Welcome to the world of an Oriole fan, Mr. McNulty.

So where are the Orioles in spring of 2010? In order of likeliness, I'd say Vero Beach, then Sarasota, then the new Ft. Lauderdale facility.

Personal preference? My sister moved across the state to Fort Myers so Sarasota would be excellent. Then Vero Beach and lastly Ft. Lauderdale.

Vero Beach has extended the deadline to Halloween. By the end of the month, at least one option will be eliminated.

Base Hits: 10/2/2008

Well, the one last thing I was rooting for the last week of the season was for Nick Markakis to walk 100 times this season. Sure, it was just a way to keep interested during the last few games of yet another losing season but I was pulling for him nonetheless!

Nick lost his bid to become the third player in Oriole history to join the 100-100 club by one walk. 99 walks for the season. Still, the season was another nice step forward in his career. But more on that later...

*****

It's this time of year when I put away my Oriole loyalties and start following...the West Oahu Canefires and the Surprise Rafters!

Yes, it's time for the fall and winter leagues and the Orioles continue to play, albeit as different entities.

2007 4th round pick Tim Bascom heads the list of players playing in Hawaii this winter and the Canfires are undefeated on the young season at 4-0.

The real glamour players for the O's minor league system are in Surprise this year. C MAtt Wieters, OF Noland Reimold (for the third straight fall) and top 2008 pick Brian Matusz will all represent the Orioles against the best talent in the minors this fall in Surprise, Arizona. Games start next week.

*****

Win Shares on the trade monitor are complete for the year. Again, I always like these trades in the long run but had no idea that Adam Jones would outperform Erik Bedard by himself in the first season of the trade! Likewise, I liked the addition of Luke Scott but had no clue that he would nearly make up for the Miguel Tejada's offense by himself. An there are 8 other players we got back in those trades. We may be able to point to those trades in three years as the point where the Orioles turned the corner to becoming a winning organization again.

*****

At long last, Desert O of Weaver's Tantrum has finished his hike of the Appalachian Trail. More than 2000 miles from Georgia to Maine that took him the better part of the baseball season. Congrats to him!

*****

I'll be quiet with posting (probably for the next week and a half) while I am in Belgium next week. If you're interested in such things, you can follow along at Bottles of Barley. But you never know, a layover at an airport, a delayed flight might prompt me to do some Oriole blogging during the trip as well.

The 100-100 Club

Just like the last 10 years, I struggle to look for something to root for at the end of the season. Coming into the month, I was rooting for 70 wins. But stuck on 67 in the midst of an 8 game losing streak, the chances of winning three of the next four is slim. (The bright side: the Orioles will get at least the 6th pick in the draft next year...good news for a team that seems willing to do something useful with those picks.)

So what's left? I'm rooting for Nick Markakis to walk once more time in the next four games and become the first Oriole to join the 100-100 club in 18 years.

What's the 100-100 club? Long before I knew what the Three True Outcomes were, I was a big fan of players who could draw 100 walks while striking out 100 times in a season. Don't ask me why, there was just something about a guy who demonstrated a great eye at the plate but wasn't afraid to swing away and fail either. Mickey Tettleton was my favorite player in this regard and had 100-100 seasons multiple times, though only once with the Orioles.

Nick could become only the third player in Oriole history to reach those milestones in the same season. The others:

Player           Year   BB   K   AVG   HR
Ken Singleton    1977   107 101 .328   24
Ken Singleton    1979   109 118 .295   35
Mickey Tettleton 1990   106 160 .256   15
 

Walk, Nick, Walk!

Five Big Disappointments of 2008

1. Adam Loewen as a Pitcher

Loewen's career as a pitcher is over. He will attempt to come back as a hitter but his value to the organization is greatly diminished and perhaps is now nil. A guy who was thought to finally develop into a solid big league pitcher in 2008 is now lost for good.

2. Nobody Could Play Shortstop

I was suspect of Luis Hernandez before the season but even I didn't imagine he would fail so spectacularly with his bat and with his glove. Brandon Fahey gave no relief. The Warehouse ran out of patience with Freddie Bynum. By the end of the year, an old defensive specialist (Juan Castro) and a utility infielder with a shaky glove and an average (at best) bat (Alex Cintron) were splitting time at short.

Add to this that there are no prospects ready to step up and that the free agent pool for shortstops is very shallow, it looks like more of the same in 2009.

3. Nobody Could Help Jeremy Guthrie in the Rotation

Loewen went down. Neither Olson nor Liz was able to step up to be a serviceable starter. Ditto for Brian Burress. The cupboard is nearly bare as far as the rotation is concerned.

4. AAA Prospects

Few of the advanced prospects from Norfolk contributed to the big club. Jim Johnson and Jim Miller were notable exceptions.

Scott Moore and Mike Constanzo had down years. Hayden Penn continued his struggles and got injured again.

Again, the upper tier of our farm system offers little hope.

5. Matt Albers Injury

Out of all the candidates at the time, Matt Albers looked like he was best equipped to take over for Steve Trachsel in the O's rotation. Unfortunately, he got injured right about that time and we'll have to wait until at least Spring Training to see if he's capable of grabbing a starting role in 2009.

Dishonorable Mentions -

Troy Patton Injury

Before the season, he was a dark horse candidate for the rotation. We'll have to see if he ever returns to form after shoulder surgery.

Brian Burres -

While I thought he was better suited to a relief role, he did not perform well while starting or coming out of the pen.

Ramon Hernandez -

He came to Spring Training in shape and with a new focus. He never broke out of his early season slump and had a very mediocre year. Disappointment tempered by impending arrival of Matt Wieters.

Five Pleasant Surprises from 2008

1. The Melvin Mora Renaissance - .284/.344/.488, 23 HR, 101 RBI, 117 OPS+

It's almost as if Melvin Mora invented the time machine during the offseason, went back to 2005 and sent that version of himself back to play for the Orioles of 2008. Mora had been given up for dead as far as being a productive major league bat. Outside of A-Rod, he's the most productive third baseman in the American League. The only thing negative to be said about Mora this year is that his play in the field has regressed after two straight seasons of above average glove work.

2. Luke Scott as a Regular - .270/.351/.499, 23 HR, 122 OPS+

The Orioles have been desperate for a respectable leftfielder for years and when they traded Miguel Tejada to the Astros one of the players they got back was a 30 year old platoon player and promptly handed him the starting job. Scott still doesn't hit lefties well but turned in the most productive year of his career and the best season from an Oriole leftfielder since the prime of B. J. Surhoff. A diamond in the rough turned up by Andy Macphail.

3. The Oriole Offense - 5th in Runs, 4th in OPS, 4th in HR

The Oriole offense, as a whole, put on a good show this season. When you consider how impotent the O's bats were in 2007, they put up some surprisingly good numbers in 2008.

4. Aubrey Huff Breaks Out - .314/.371/.576, 32 HR, 106 RBI, 146 OPS+

After three very average years and some offseason controversy, Huff exploded out of the gate in April and has had the best season of his career. Huff provided the offensive spark that fans were hoping for in 2007 and he would make attractive trade bait in the offseason.

5. Jim Johnson Emerges - 68.7 IP, 38 K, 2.23 ERA, 198 ERA+

A starter in the minors, Johnson was called up from Norfolk and placed in the bullpen. He became one of the better setup men in the league and a symbol of the rejuvenated Oriole relief corp.

Honorable Mentions -

George Sherrill - an afterthought in the Erik Bedard trade, George had an up and down year but he made the All-Star team and showed that he can close in this league even if he's not among the elite closers in baseball.

Luis Montanez - the late-bloomer made his major league debut and has hit .310 during his stint with the big club. Perhaps a fourth outfielder/platoon partner for Luke Scott in 2009?

Adam Jones - The Truth was up and down during the season but on the whole played a great centerfield and showed a solid bat for a player that green. Good signs for the future.

Later, Five Big Disappointments from 2008. Those will be much easier to find unfortunately...

Base Hits: 9/17/2008

I should know better than to get worked up by message board posts but I just had to get this off my chest...

Lots of talk on Oriole messages boards about how this team has quit. They've given up. Mailing it in. 

I'll admit, it's quite difficult to watch the games these days. But the people saying this team has quit are obviously not watching the games. Kevin Millar has not quit. Nick Markakis has not quit. Adam Jones has not quit. Chris Waters has not quit. Melvin Mora, Jeremy Guthrie, Luke Scott and Brian Roberts have not quit. To suggest that the O's have bailed on this season is a complete misreading of the situation. The team is not very good. But they certainly have not quit.

Before the season, when many were predicting 100 losses, I said that I thought this team would be no worse than last year. They have to win three more games to exceed last year's win total. Hardly a slam dunk but I'm still rooting that they make it.

*****

Although I have been quite against it (and Andy MacPhail says this is against his philosophy as well), I think it is now unavoidable. The O's need to go after a couple of free agent pitchers in the offseason. I'm not saying that The Warehouse should break the bank chasing after C.C. Sabathia or Ben Sheets but a top free agent pitcher flanked by a journeyman would look good for 2009. John Lackey and Paul Byrd. Or Derek Lowe and Jon Garland. Just a couple of guys who can help Guthrie round out the rotation until any of the young arms develop into legitimate starters. We can't go through another season of inflicting emotional damage on pitchers who aren't ready for the big club yet. Just a thought.

*****

Matt Wieters was named Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year. No big surprise. The beast slouches toward Baltimore to be born...

Wieters will play this in the Arizona Fall League

 starting next month. Nolan Reimold will make his third straight appearance in the AFL. SS Blake Davis will join them and he will be intriguing to watch. Top pick of the 2008 draft Brian Matusz will make his professional debut in for the Surprise Rafters.

Lots of good baseball going on this fall and winter...

*****

Grimace of the Week comes from Nick Blackburn:

You'd be grimacing too if you lost to Radhames Liz...

******

I should be blogging a bit more regularly now. Look for season wrap-ups and such in the coming weeks.