Adam Dunn: The Debate Continues

The Oriole Way was also inspired by our Twitter conversation and posted his analysis about free agent 1B Adam Dunn. But while my analysis took a look at Dunn's durability and the risk of signing him to a 4-year deal, TOW went deeper.

(This is why I love blogging; the chance to take an argument deeper and stretch out with it...could never do this on message boards...)

Now, he has forced me to go deeper to counter his argument in more detail.

Addressing his objections one by one:

1) He will cost the O's their second round draft pick.

Of all the free agent bats available, Adam Dunn is, by far, the best bat out there. He is a Hall of Fame caliber hitter and still in his prime. You don't get a chance to acquire a special bat like that everyday. (Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, etc, are all at the end of their careers.)

Any other big bat that the O's would or could go after this offseason would cost them prospects via trade and their worth would be more than a 2nd round pick. For example, getting Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres could require 3-4 top players/prospects. One of them would certainly have to be Adam Jones or Brian Matusz. By contrast, a 2nd round pick for Dunn seems a small price to pay.

Yes, the 2011 draft will be deep but the loss of that second round pick can balanced by spending more in the later rounds. Whether the team decides to spend money in the draft or not will have little to do with having or not having a second round pick.

Not to mention, the other good first baseman out there (Paul Konerko, Derrek Lee) are Type A free agents and may cost Baltimore a draft pick anyway.

2) There are lots of other, cheaper options for first base.

This is true. While none of the other options are anything close to Dunn as a hitter, there are guys who could come cheaper and for shorter contracts.

I would be more open to this argument if there was an heir apparent in the Baltimore farm system to play first base. If there was a top prospect who could play first, I would advocate signing Konerko, Lee or a lesser stopgap. But the Orioles best first baseman in the minors is Brandon Snyder who didn't show much at AAA in 2010 (or 2009 for that matter) and in the best case scenario is probably more Brian Daubach than Kevin Youkilis.

Dunn would block nobody and the Orioles have plenty of money to spend. He would fill a gaping hole for the foreseeable future.

3) He's been worth $15 million or more exactly once in the past six seasons.

This is probably the point on which I will concede. Perhaps $15 million is not market value for Dunn's services. My original calculations called for a contract for Dunn of 4 years worth $13-14 million per season. That's probably closer to his value but in my final calculations I rounded up to $15 million to account for extra money to lure him to the AL and to another losing club. But I would go $13 mil, probably up to $14 mil, per season to bring him in.

4) His "old player" skills and body type make me think he's susceptible to rapid decline.

And in his post, he links "rapid" to a picture of Travis Hafner and "decline" links to a picture of Mo Vaughn.

Here are those pics juxtaposed with Dunn:

Here's why the comps don't work in my mind.

Hafner does not have the same resume that Dunn had at the same age. Hafner certainly had three off-the-chart seasons but Dunn has been fairly consistent for his 10-year career.

Vaughn was only 6'1". And he got FAT. Different body type, no comparison.

Dunn is not fat. He may not be the best conditioned player in the league but his frame is enormous. It's meant to carry a bit a weight. Really, there are no body type comparisons for Dunn, at least not with his abilities. There is really no reason to believe that he will start declining before he hits 35.

Yesterday, I compared him to players with the big build and the big resume. I feel more comfortable with those comps than Hafner or Vaughn.

5) His 2010 season showed a decline in walk rate and a rise in his strikeout rate, which combined for a very large increase in his K/BB ratio.

This is true. But one year does not a trend make, good or bad. That blip does not scare me off.

TOW made the opposite argument against Luke Scott repeating his 2010 numbers because it was a one season anomaly. Similarly, I doubt that Dunn will repeat the his anomaly from 2010 in 2011. He will be 31, not 36.

More points:

"I think it goes without saying that Dunn's value lies entirely in his bat."

True. But that's enough. And I don't think he hurts you all that much on defense as a first baseman and that's the best you can hope for.

"This Orioles club isn't yet ready to contend..."


This is also true. But I believe that the Orioles will be ready to contend at some point over the next four seasons. Dunn can be a part of that.

While I concede the money may be a bit high, I still think a 4-year deal of $13-14 million per season is fair for Dunn's services. Again, Dunn has a Hall of Fame caliber bat and will only be 31 next season! He compares favorably to Reggie Jackson, Harmon Killebrew, Sammy Sosa, Ralph Kiner and Jim Thome through his age 30 season. It would be a shame if the Orioles are kicking themselves in 2013 because they didn't fill a huge need for a first baseman and an impact bat for a relatively affordable and (short term) price.

Big Bopper Breakdowns and Adam Dunn

As with so many of my posts, this one is born out of a comment here on the blog or by a Twitter follower. This time, it's from The Oriole Way. In response to my tweet advocating a 4-year contract offer from the Orioles to Adam Dunn, he had this to say:

4 years for Dunn after the worst K% and BB% of his career? That body looks capable of rapid decline. 3 years is plenty risky.

Dunn was only 30 this past season and I felt that signing him through age 34 is not all that risky. But I really didn't know how players of Dunn's body type and skill set had aged in the past. Dunn is huge, listed in Baseball Reference as 6' 6" and 285 lbs. As a rough cut, I decided to use the Baseball-Reference.com Play Index to take a look at players who were at least 6' 2" and 240 lbs. Also, the players had to have hit 175 homers prior to their age 31 season. That gives us the following list:

Frank Howard
Jim Thome
Ryan Howard
Jason Giambi
Carlos Delgado
Frank Thomas
Derrek Lee
Carlos Lee
Scott Rolen
Troy Glaus

From here, I eliminated Ryan Howard and Troy Glaus since they have yet to play their age 34 seasons yet. I also eliminated Scott Rolen since third basemen are just plain different from corner outfielders or 1B/DH types. That leaves us with seven players to help track Dunn's trajectory. Here are their stats from their age 31-34 seasons:

                Height    Weight   OPS   OPS+   HR
Frank Howard     6'7"      255    .919   166   162
Jim Thome        6'3"      250    .982   155   148    
Jason Giambi     6'3"      240    .945   150   126
Carlos Delgado   6'3"      245    .957   146   145
Frank Thomas     6'5"      240    .926   135    90 
Derrek Lee       6'5"      245    .869   121    96
Carlos Lee       6'2"      265    .833   119   110

The first thing I noticed is that while all these guys are big, none are quite as hulking as Adam Dunn. (Also, how big must Frank Howard have seemed back in the 60's?)

Second, only Frank Thomas (20 games in 2001) and Carlos Lee (115 games in 2008) missed significant time due to injury during this span.

How is the decline overall? A comparison of OPS+ up to age 30 and OPS+ from age 31-34.

               OPS+         OPS+
           Up to age 30    31-34
Howard         131          166    
Thome          147          155
Giambi         148          150
Delgado        140          146
Thomas         174          135
D. Lee         123          121
C. Lee         119          119

Surprisingly, even to me, we have 4 increases in OPS+. Carlos Lee held steady, his was who you thought he was (a power hitter with poor on base skills). Derrek Lee's decline is almost negligible and although Frank Thomas' performance fell drastically, it was still at very good levels since his prior performance was utterly off the charts.

Why is this? Do these bigger guys take longer to grow into their bodies? Maybe. But a big guy seems (based on this limited information) to be at least as likely to get better in his early 30's as he is to decline. He is at least a pretty good bet to hold serve.

Based on this, you could expect Adam Dunn to continue to be the .900 OPS, 130 OPS+ type of player that he has been to this point in his career.

So I stand by it. A four year deal seems a good bet to me.

Free "Car and Driver" Subscriptions...

I have a couple of gift subscriptions for Car and Driver magazine and figured I'd offer them up to my readers.

If anyone is interested, drop me a line at dempseysarmy at yahoo dot com and I'll get your information.

The Oriole Windfall for 2011, Part 4

Here is the final (reasonable) roster I would be shooting for in 2011 if I ran the Orioles. I have left trades out of the equation because that can just become a silly guessing game from the outside. I have stuck to current players and free agents.

C - Wieters

1B - Dunn

2B - Roberts

3B - Bell

SS - Izturis

RF - Markakis

CF - Jones

LF - Pie

DH - Scott

OF - Reimold

Utility - Wigginton

Utility - Andino

Backup Catcher  - Tatum

Thoughts: I would go hard after Dunn and plug him in at first base. Defense at 1B is overrated. I feel OK giving Bell the chance to get a full season under his belt in the majors. Wiggy could be brought back to spell Bell and Dunn at third and first respectively. 

Shortstop was tough. A commenter pointed out that J.J. Hardy is not a free agent after all, even though he was listed that way on Cot's Contracts. The pickings are slim after that. Jhonny Peralta looks to resign with the Tigers, Omar Infante and Alex Gonzalez had their options picked up by the Braves. Giving the job to Robert Andino would be cheap but he could turn out to be the second coming of Luis Hernandez. A short, cheap contract for Izzy is probably the best bet via free agency.

Craig Tatum did a fine job as the backup catcher in 2010. Andino or a castoff veteran can fulfill the middle infield role.

SP - Matusz

SP - Guthrie

SP - Vasquez

SP - Arrieta

SP - Bergesen

RP - Tillman

RP - Vandenhurk

RP - Berken

RP - Hernandez

RP - Patton

RP - Johnson

RP - Gonzalez

I still think signing a veteran starter is good insurance. Javier Vasquez will come fairly cheap and short term.

Moving Chris Tillman to the pen will give him big league experience and he can work on his cutter. Tillman, Vandenhurk, Berken and Hernandez give the O's a dynamic bullpen as all of those guys could pitch 2+ innings. Patton and Gonzo provide the lefty arms. 

The projected lineup and payroll:

Dunn, Adam 1B              $15,000,000    
Markakis, Nick rf          $10,600,000    
Roberts, Brian 2b          $10,000,000    
Scott, Luke dh-of           $7,500,000    
Gonzalez, Mike lhp          $6,000,000    
Vasquez, Javier P           $5,500,000    
Guthrie, Jeremy rhp-s       $5,000,000    
Wigginton, Ty 3b            $2,500,000    
Jones, Adam cf              $2,300,000    
Izturis, Cesar ss           $1,500,000    
Matusz, Brian lhp           $1,400,000    
Pie, Felix lf               $1,000,000    
Andino, Robert if             $700,000    
Johnson, Jim rhp              $700,000    
Bergesen, Brad rhp            $500,000    
Hernandez,D rhp               $500,000    
Bell, Josh 3b                 $500,000    
Berken, Jason rhp             $500,000    
Patton, Troy lhp              $500,000    
Reimold, Nolan of             $500,000    
Tatum, Craig c                $500,000    
Tillman, Chris rhp            $500,000    
Wieters, Matt c               $500,000    
Vandenhurk, R P               $500,000    
Arrieta, Jake P               $500,000    
     
                           $75,200,000 

That is an mildly improved team for just a touch over the 2010 Opening Day payroll. The Orioles can certainly afford to take on some payroll via trade (hopefully, a shortstop and/or starting pitcher) to improve the team further. Time to buy a bat, Andy.

Luke Scott: The Invisible Slugger, Part 2

From Roch Kubatko's post on MASN yesterday titled "Deciding the Top DH for 2010":

The Edgar Martinez Outstanding Designated Hitter Award will be presented next month, which makes sense, considering that we're down to our final day of this month...


The two leading candidates are Vladimir Guerrero and David Ortiz. One player looked like he was finished and didn't draw a tremendous amount of interest on the free agent market. The other player looked like he was finished once the season began and dealt with all sorts of speculation about being benched or released...


The ballot calls for members of the media to cast votes for first and second place. I just need to figure out the order.


While Roch lays out Scott's numbers, there is no case made for him to be on the ballot. Not once.

Some key stats for the trio overall in 2010:

OPS   wRC+  2B   HR     
Ortiz       .899   137   36   32
Guerrero    .841   124   27   29
Scott       .902   143   29   27  

And the trio's DH numbers only"

OPS   OPS+  2B   HR     
Ortiz       .908   140   35   31
Guerrero    .850   125   25   25
Scott       .955   152   19   23

Luke Scott trumps them all.

Now, given the closeness of their rate stats and the fact that Ortiz has more than 150 PAs more than Scott as a DH, you can make the argument that Ortiz should get the edge over Scott. But Guerrero? It's not even close. He certainly belongs on the ballot, if not the winnre of the award.

But Roch Kubatko, a guy who watched Scott all year long, doesn't even make a case for him. Scott's 2010 is going down as one of the most overlooked offensive seasons in Oriole history.

The Oriole Windfall for 2011, Part 3

Shortstop


Pricey Options

None. The Orioles can't afford, nor should they want, Derek Jeter. Even if the Mets do not pick up Jose Reyes' option, he is an injury risk and would be expensive regardless. Japanese SS Hiroyuki Nakajima will probably not be posted by the Seibu Lions. The Phillies will not decline Jimmy Rollins' option.

That leaves...

Mid-Range Options

J..J Hardy

Hardy isn't hitting like he did a couple years ago but still has some pop in his bat and his glove is still very legitimate at short. He has posted UZRs of 6.1, 6.1 and 8.1 over the past three seasons. But his struggles at the plate have diminished his value. You should be able to sign the guy for 2 seasons at $5-6 mil per season and he will provide a fair bat and good defense until (perhaps) Manny Machado gets to Baltimore.

Orlando Cabrera

Cabrera will be 36 next season but can still play a decent shortstop. There's also a slight chance his bat returns to pre-2010 levels (which would be a nice upgrade from Cesar Izturis' bat). He could be worth a one year gamble in the neighborhood of $3 mil.

Budget Options

Cesar Izturis

Izturis is all about the glove. If you just want a glove who will come cheap, Izturis may be your man. A one year deal at around $2 mil. Or...

Robert Andino

Andino may be able to play just as well at short and play for the league minimum. If you're just going to punt on the shortstop position in 2011 anyway, it may be worth it to just plug Andino in and see what happens. There is still a long shot that his bat improves, we can't say that about Izturis.


Starting Pitching

Pricey Options

None

Sure, the Orioles could go all in on Cliff Lee but the Rangers and the Yankees already have inside tracks on his services.

Mid-Range

Javier Vasquez

Make no mistake, Vasquez had a poor year in his return to the Bronx. And it was for real. His 5.32 ERA was backed by a 5.56 FIP and a 4.90 xFIP. But he could come at a bargain and/or a short contract. A one-year, incentive laden deal could add an average veteran arm. $6-8 mil for one season should get it done.

Jake Westbrook


Westbrook was expected to sign an extension with the Cardinals but all has been quiet on that front. It would probably take a three-year deal to sign Westbrook, probably around $8 mil per season. The only question is, do you want a mediocre pitcher on the wrong side of 32 signed for 3 seasons? He will certainly have value...but in theory, the Orioles have better options coming up through the system.

Budget Options


The Motley Crew


There are a ton of interesting options from the group of injury risks and cast-offs out there this year. Tiger hurler Jeremy Bonderman is still just 28 and there is still time to harness some of his potential. Ditto for the Marlins' Andrew Miller, a former 1st round pick who hasn't panned out in the bigs but is just 25 and is a flame-throwing lefty. Former Oriole John Maine is likely to be non-tendered by the Mets. Brandon McCarthy, Jeff Suppan, Zach Duke and Noah Lowry are also going to be out there, as well as other vets nearing the end of their careers.

These are not sexy options but if you sign two or three of them to compete for a spot in the rotation, perhaps one works out. If not, you can send them to the bullpen. Remember, this is how we got Jeremy Guthrie. Low cost, low risk.

The Bullpen


If you read this blog even casually, you know how I fell about the construction of the bullpen. Most of our bullpen for 2011 is already in the organization. Fill out the pen with current players under contract (including Michael Gonzlaez, who we just have to hope and pray can be worth anything close to the $6 mil he'll be making this season) and fill in the holes with arms from AAA and veteran cast-offs (see Will Ohman, 2010).

Next time, we'll (finally) wrap this up with a look at how I think the roster should be constructed and the financial ramifications of those roster moves...

Tyler Townsend Injured Again, Done for AFL

Orioles 1B prospect Tyler Townsend, the player I identified as needing the AFL to make up for time lost to injury over his first two professional seasons, will instead be going under the knife.

Orioles infield prospect Tyler Townsend will have surgery to remove a cyst from his hand, a procedure that won't significantly affect his preparation for the 2011 season, but will end his time in the Arizona Fall League...


He's apparently had the cyst since high school, but it recently started affecting how he gripped the bat. By having surgery, Townsend should be able to resume baseball activities by December.

Here's hoping he's healthy enough to play somewhere, anywhere, in the Oriole organization for the full 2011 season.

Luke Scott...Still the Invisible Slugger

Yet again, I am compelled to defend Luke Scott as a premier slugger in the American League. That's right, I said it. Premier. Slugger.

Seeing these two items over the past week show that the perception of Scott does not match the reality, especially the Scott we saw in 2010. The first is from a comment I saw on a post at Baltimore Sports Report. The other is the closing line in a Baltimore Sun article by Jeff Zrebiec.

I do believe that Markakis gets even better if you put a true #4 bat in this lineup. - MGW

The offense also lacked a legitimate middle-of-the-order hitter, a commodity that MacPhail has made a priority again this offseason. - Jeff Zrebiec

Now, I am not picking on the commenter or Zrebiec, just using them as examples of the (still) widespread perception that the O's did not have a "legitimate" clean up hitter or even a true "middle-of-the-order" caliber bat. They did and they do. Perhaps you've heard of him. His name is Luke Scott.

What is a clean up hitter? Beyond the obvious position in the batting order, what is his job? Steve Treder of The Hardball Times explains it far more eloquently than I can:

The role has been called "cleanup" since forever for a reason: See the runners soiling the pristine white bases out there? This guy's job is to clean them bases up, get them runners home.


Obviously it's great if a cleanup hitter hits for a high average and/or draws a lot of walks, but if he's doing either or both of those things without hitting for power, he isn't properly performing the cleanup function. Setting the table is a means to an end, not an end in itself; the purpose of getting on base is to come around and score. The cleanup hitter is there to convert baserunners into runs, to finish what the others have started. And that means hitting for power, and plenty of it.


Power. That's what a cleanup hitter is supposed to deliver. Why? Because the farther the batter can hit the ball, the longer it will take for the outfielders to get it back into the infield, giving the baserunners the most time to circle those bases and score. The guy who hits it the farthest, the most often, should be you cleanup hitter. Simple concept, right?

I have advocated Scott as the cleanup hitter in past seasons because he had very good power and there were scant options otherwise. This year, that was not the case. Scott was a legitimate cleanup hitter and hit for great power in 2010. And power is measured in slugging percentage (SLG) and Isolated Power (ISO)

AL Leaders in SLG for 2010

                SLG
Hamilton       .633
Cabrera        .622
Bautista       .617
Konerko        .584
Beltre         .553
Scott          .535
Cano           .534
Ortiz          .529
Wells          .515
Swisher        .511

In addition to those names, Scott out-slugged Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and Evan Longoria.

In terms of Isolated Power (ISO):

AL Leaders in ISO for 2010

                ISO
Bautista       .357
Cabrera        .294
Hamilton       .274
Konerko        .272
Ortiz          .259
Scott          .251
Wells          .242
Quentin        .236
Rodriguez      .236
Beltre         .233

Scott also posted an ISO higher than Teixeira, Longoria, Robinson Cano and Carlos Pena.

So, 6th in the league in both stats that evaluate power, finishing ahead of many hitters that would universally be considered middle-of-the-order bats. The Orioles did not lack a legitimate middle-of-the-order bat in 2010...they had one of the best in the league.

But the word still hasn't managed to get out...so I guess I'm going to have to keep beating this dead horse until it does.

Terry Crowley's Days as Hitting Coach Numbered

According to the Baltimore Sun's Jeff Zrebiec, longtime hitting coach Terry Crowley may be done with that position, if not the organization.

The Orioles are discussing a multi-faceted position with Terry Crowley, an arrangement that will end his long career as the team's hitting coach but keep him in a prominent teaching role in the organization....

Instead, Crowley, who is highly regarded for his ability to evaluate hitters, will work with both major and minor leaguers hitters, and assist in scouting and evaluating potential trade, free agent or draft targets.


The article also mentions that Felix Pie, Nick Markakis and Luke Scott have all credited Crowley with their development as hitters. But the bottom line is that the young bats have not developed well under the current coaching staff and Crowley has to take some blame for that. Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, Nolan Reimold...they haven't come along like they should have. Hitters seem to do well despite Crowley, not because of him.

After 13 seasons, it's time for a new voice at hitting coach and it's time for Crowley to find something else to do.

The Oriole Windfall for 2011, Part 2

Thanks to all the astute readers who pointed out that Mark Hendrickson could not be retained for $200k next season. That's the number on his buyout for 2011; he would make $1.2 million if his option is exercised. It didn't look right when I was typing it and a second look at Cot's Baseball Contracts confirmed that it was not. Thanks for the heads up guys!


We took a look at the payroll in Part 1, now let's look where some money needs to be spent. The Orioles have big needs at first base, third base, shortstops and on the pitching staff. Here's some ideas of how to fill these holes.

First Base/Designated Hitter

Pricey Options

Adam Dunn

Dunn is hitting free agency again after playing out his 2-year and, again, I will stump for his signing. Dunn is a butcher in the field but he wouldn't hurt you a ton splitting his time between 1B and DH. (Leaning more toward DH but I don't think he hurts you so bad at 1B that he can't start in the field 90-100 games a year.) I howled for him to be signed after 2008, especially when it became apparent that Mark Teixeira could not be signed. In fact, I imagined he could produce as well at the plate for half the money. And he did even more than that:

2009-2010      AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS
Dunn          .264  .378  .533  .910
Teixeira      .274  .374  .523  .897

Andy, it's time to buy a bat.

Oriole first basemen have OPS'ed .676 over the past two seasons and the O's paid their 2010 Opening Day first baseman $4 million to suck really hard. Meanwhile, Dunn was making $10 mil per year and crushing it.

The thing is, he's still undervalued. I think you can lock Dunn up for $13-14 mil per year for a 4-year contract. That gives you Dunn for his age 31-34 seasons and gives you one of the best DHs in the American League.

Furthermore, it would allow you to trade Luke Scott and prep Nolan Reimold to take over regular first base duties. Scott may not make the $7.5 mil I estimate but unloading that cash to another team for a couple prospects or some relievers makes sense. His value will never be higher and he would still be under control via arbitration for the next two years. There's no place for Reimold in the Oriole outfield right now, he can fill a need at first. If Reimold never returns to his rookie year form, Dunn helps soften that blow as well.

Victor Martinez

The Orioles value versatility and Martinez could offer some of that. Although Martinez is past his prime as a catcher, you could still see him catching on and off giving the O's more flexibility in the lineup. He's a good hitter.

The problem is, he's not really the power bat that many perceive him to be. Sure, when you hit 20-25 homers as a catcher, that's nice power. As a first baseman, that fairly average.

Also, there's likely to be more competition to sign Martinez. He will almost certainly cost at least what Dunn does over a longer contract. Moreover, there are candidates who will cost less over shorter contracts who could produce similar numbers. More on that below.

Mid-Range Options

Derrek Lee

There are a lot of mid-range candidates for first base out there who could be had for relatively modest money over two-year contracts: Paul Konerko, Troy Glaus, Adam La Roche, Lyle Overbay. But I figured I'd focus on two. Derrek Lee could come at a relative bargain.

Lee may find the demand for his services lacking after a down season. He'll be 35 in 2011 but is just 2 years removed from a 35 homer season. Like Adrian Beltre last year, Lee may be willing to sign a one-year deal to reestablish his reputation and try to get a better deal a year from now. You wouldn't want to go longer than a two-year deal with him but you could DH him some, help keep him healthy and he could put up V-Mart type numbers for the next two seasons. It's an option while our 1B prospects in the minors sort themselves out.

Carlos Pena

Anyone in baseball could have had Pena for a song 4 years ago. Now someone will have to pay.

But not that much, really. Pena had a pretty bad year for the Rays and didn't even hit .200. But he still had 28 homers and an ISO north of .200. He's not a perfectg player but he's a prime candidate for a rebound. Again, a 0ne or two year commitment as a stopgap while better options mature in the minors.

Budget Options

Luke Scott/Nolan Reimold

As I said last season, deploying Scott as a first baseman early in the season with Reimold playing DH until his Achilles tendon was healthy would have been a nice option for 2010. Now, we'll never know.

I still don't think this is a bad plan. Let them both play first and as Reimold's bat comes back, ease Scott back into a DH role and/or trade him. But I don't think this is a likely option since the Orioles are reportedly targeting a big bat for 2011.

Ty Wigginton

Of the flotsam that may be left for cheap out there, I'd be OK with signing Wiggy back for cheap to play some first and some third for 2011 as long as it was for $2 mil or less and a one-year deal. His versatility would allow him to move to a bench/utility role once a better option at first was found.


Third Base

Pricey Options

Adrian Beltre

Beltre is only an option for the Orioles if they are certain that Josh Bell cannot play in the majors at all. Beltre will be 32 next season and is coming off a fantastic year in Boston. he will be expensive and he will command at least a 4-year deal. Lots of money for a guy who will be on the wrong side of 35 when his contract is up. But he's a fine bat and a stellar defender at third. But I think $13 mil per season is what it would take to sign him, at the very least. I'm not sure that's the kind of guy the O's want to lock up for a long contract.

Mid-Range Options

Brandon Inge

If you want to give Josh Bell a real shot, you probably shouldn't sign a guy like Inge either since he would take away playing time for Bell even in a part time role. But Inge gives you a fine glove and nice power for the position. He should come fairly cheap and very short-term.

Budget Options

Josh Bell

The cheapest way to go is just to let Bell play and be ready for him to suck. The club should sign a Ty Wigginton type as a bench/utility guy who can spell Bell and provide an emergency replacement. But I think Bell may become a serviceable player and has some nice upside. I expect that the Orioles will give him every opportunity to prove himself in 2011.



Next: Shortstop and the Pitching Staff

Yankees Fans Are Animals; Sky Still Blue

Not that this is a shocker but Yankee fans tried to douse Cal Ripken, Jr. with beer last night. This video was on Big League Stew on Yahoo Sports:



The kind of fans who would dump beer on Ripken, who is classy to a fault, are the kind of fans who belong in a cage. Somebody tell me I'm wrong.

Orioles in the Desert: Arizona Fall League 2010

Let's go Scottsdale Scorpions!

There are still some Orioles playing baseball in October and this year they are doing it for the Scorpions of Scottsdale. Unlike previous years, there are no big prospects or even many prospects that may make it to Baltimore next season but there are still some interesting players in representing the Birds in Arizona.

RHP Oliver Drake

Drake is a 23-year-old righty who pitched for Frederick this season. His stats are nothing special although his control seems good (2.6 BB/9, 7.0 K/9 in 2010) and his numbers seem to scream Brad Bergesen. Of course, being Brad Bergesen in Frederick is not exactly impressive but it will be interesting to see how he fares in an offensive environment like the AFL. I would imagine he gets shelled but maybe he learns a few things that will help him in Bowie next year.

RHP Pat Egan

The 25-year-old Egan was impressive for Bowie and unlucky in Norfolk in 2010. Egan showed impressive control and kept the ball in the park and has throughout his minor league career. The 2006 36th-round draft pick has an odd hurky-jerky motion that keeps hitters off-balance. Limiting walks and homers can lay the groundwork for success and, again, it will be interesting to see how he performs in a high-offense environment like the AFL.

RHP Kam Mickolio

Due to injury, Mickolio only threw 44 innings in a disappointing 2010. Mickolio was thought to be a potential late inning reliever before the season and he'll have to try to recapture his control and ridiculous strikeout rate to force himself back into the 2011 bullpen picture. He and Egan are probably the Scorpions most likely to pitch in Baltimore next year.

RHP Wynn Pelzer

Pelzer is the player Baltimore got back from the Padres in the Miguel Tejada trade. He walks too many batters and gives up a bunch on hits per 9. If he doesn't get knocked around too badly in Arizona, it'll be a success for him.

C Caleb Joseph

I'm very interested to see how Joseph fares in the AFL. Joseph had a disappointing season for Bowie in 2010  but is still considered a decent enough catching prospect. Will the 24-year-old get his stroke back this fall? If so, it could be a springboard to his development in his inevitable repeat of AA in 2011.

2B Ryan Adams

The 23-year-old Adams had something of a breakthrough in the power department at Bowie this year (43 doubles, 15 homers) and is certainly destined for Norfolk in 2011. Looking at the roster, Adams should play a fair amount of second and perhaps at third during his AFL stint and it will be interesting to see if the power keeps coming.

SS Greg Miclat

The diminutive, light-hitting shortstop had a bit of a career resurrection in Frederick this season but hit a roadbump in Bowie. Still just 22, the extra work could help make or break him as a prospect in 2011. The Orioles could use another legitimate shortstop prospect.

1B Tyler Townsend

Since being drafted in the 3rd round of the 2009 amateur draft, Townsend has only played in 83 during his Orioles career due to injury. He has show flashes of brilliance (.563 slugging percentage in 2010) and the Orioles could definitely use a power bat like his in the system. It's a good chance for Townsend to make up for lost time. He's only going to be 23 next year and there's no reason he can't get to Bowie and perhaps Norfolk in 2011 if he stays healthy.

CF Xavier Avery

I thought LJ Hoes would be the Frederick player to take a step forward this year (and he had a decent year) but it was the 20-year-old Avery that blossomed and advanced all the way  to AA Bowie. I don't take the hitting performances in the AFL too seriously but it would be fantastic if Avery showed well for the Scorpions. With 38 stolen bases combined in 2010, expect Avery to be testing arms in Arizona.

The Oriole Windfall for 2011, Part 1

As we head into the offseason, it's time to look at the projected Oriole payroll for 2011 and see where money could and should be spent. All salary data taken from Cot's Baseball Contracts. First, the money owed to players already under contract for next season.

2011 Salary (in millions)
Roberts                        $10.0
Markakis                       $10.6
Gonzalez                       $6.0
Matusz                         $1.4
Hendrickson                    $0.2
Atkins                         $0.5

One more year on the Mike Gonzalez deal. If my estimated abritration figures are anywhere close, Gonazalez will be at least the 4th highest paid Baltimore player in 2011.

Hendrickson, apparently, can be retained for a $200,000 option. If that is true, then the Orioles will pick up that option.

Here's the guys on the team that could be retained for something just above or at the league minimum. I rounded all salaries up to $500,000.

2011 Salary (in millions)
Bergesen                       $0.5
Tillman                        $0.5
Fox                            $0.5
Hernandez                      $0.5
Berken                         $0.5
Arrieta                        $0.5
Bell                           $0.5
Reimold                        $0.5
Andino                         $0.5
Wieters                        $0.5
Tatum                          $0.5
Patton                         $0.5
Simon                          $0.5
Mickolio                       $0.5

Finally, to fill out the roster, here are the arbitration eligible players with educated guesses on what each player will earn if they are offered arbitration.

2011 Salary (in millions)
Guthrie                       $5.0
Albers                        $0.7
Scott                         $7.5
Jones                         $2.3
Johnson                       $0.7
Pie                           $1.0

Of the six, only Albers is a good bet to not be tendered arbitration.

That's a total of $52.9 million dollars committed to fill out the roster for 2011, more than $20 million less than the 2010 Opening Day payroll.

Again, Andy MacPhail has avoided the long contracts and leaves himself a lot of payroll flexibility for 2011. But will they spend it? Where could they spend it? More on that tomorrow.

5 Best Things I Saw at the Ballpark - 2010

Even though I don't live in Baltimore these days, I still go to a lot of games every season. I figured it was worth my while to go through my memory banks and coming up with some of the best things I saw during the 2010 baseball season. These aren't necessarily Oriole related or even MLB related but here they are.

Honorable Mention - The One That Got Away

The Norfolk Tides were coming to the Atlanta area (vs. the Gwinnett Braves)  in late April and I was only going to be able to get out to one game during the week. I decided to go to Thursday's game since Jake Arrieta would be pitching on April 29th and I hadn't seen him pitch yet. Chris Tillman was going on Wednesday but I had seen him a couple times in 2009.

Well, that one decision cost me the chance to see Tillman throw a no-hitter for the Tides. Minor leagues or not, I have never seen a no-hitter in person and I missed my shot by 24 hours. Adding insult to injury, Arrieta didn't even pitch that well and the Tides lost a lackluster contest to the G-Braves the following evening.

#5 - August 6th, Turner Field, Atlanta, GA: Chipper Jones Last HR?

I headed downtown to watch the Braves take on the Giants for a Friday night game, mostly to see Jason Heyward (who had not been in the starting lineup during my previous trips to Turner Field) and see Tommy Hanson pitch again. Heyward went 0-5 but Hanson pitched well as the Braves lost 3-2 in 11 innings.

But with 2 out in the bottom of the 6th, Chipper Jones hit a homer to left to give the Braves the 2-1 lead. He played three more games in 2010 before being shut down on August 11th. There is no guarantee that Jones will be healthy enough to return in 2011. So that was, perhaps, the last home run of a Hall of Fame career. It is also likely that I saw Chipper's last multi-homer game on June 7th, 2009 when he clubbed two off of Brewer's hurler Manny Parra.

#4 - April 10th, Fluor Field, Greenville, SC: Justin Dalles with a Moonshot

The Delmarva Shorebirds helped me get credentialed for this game (thanks Shorebirds!) and it was to be the professional debut of the Orioles' 2009 top draft pick, SP Matt Hobgood. So I was looking forward to watching Hobgood and catching prospect Micahel Ohlman on a fine spring Saturday evening in South Carolina.

But as with most of these stories, it's the things you are not expecting that end up making the game memorable. Hobgood pitched but was wild and gave up 3 earned runs over 4 innings pitched. Ohlman was dinged up from the night before and was replaced at catcher by University of South Carolina product Justin Dalles.

Leading off the top of the 7th, Dalles hit a mammoth solo home run to center. It's 420 ft to center with a 30 feet of wall/netting to clear. It cleared all of that with no problem. The centerfielder took two steps back than just stopped and watched it. It was a no doubter. I don't know how far that ball travelled as it sailed out into the inky blackness but it was the longest home run I've ever seen in person. It may have gone 500 ft.

#3 - August 14th, State Mutual Stadium, Rome, GA: Inside the Park Homer

I took the family out to watch the Rome Braves who were hosting the Augusta Green Jackets for a Saturday night game. Well, my family was basically there to see Birdzerk. There weren't any prospects of note playing that evening so I was there purely to watch a minor league baseball game the old fashioned way...with no angles.

In the top of the 8th, there was a man on second with one out. The game was tied 4-4 and Augusta 2B Ryan Cavan strode to the plate to face Rome reliever Kyle Mertins. Cavan proceeded to hit a loopy liner to right center. Rome CF Bobby Rauh sprinted toward the gap and dove for the ball hoping to prevent the man on second from scoring but he missed it and the ball bounced over him and rolled all the way to the wall. Cavan was not particularly fast but was running hard out of the box. He rounded third before the ball hit the cutoff man and scored a full step ahead of the ball for an inside-the-park home run. First one I've seen in person and probably the most exciting play I've seen all year.

#2 - June 28th, Turner Field, Atlanta, Ga: Stephen Strasburg vs. Tim Hudson

Strasmas came to Atlanta on June 28th as the rookie phenom squared off against Tim Hudson in a game that, at least for 6 innings, turned out to be the pitcher's duel that had been anticipated. After 6 innings, Strasburg had struck out 7, walked just one and allowed no runs. Hudson has struck out 5, walked 3 and had also allowed no runs.

The 7th inning told the tale however, as Hudson got through the 7th with a single hit allowed and Strasburg got wild, was victimized by an error on a sure double play ball and his bullpen gave up 4 runs after he exited. It was a fun atmosphere. Strasburg outpitched Hudson but Hudson kept finding ways to stay alive. Strasburg was also making the Braves lineup look silly for most of the evening and the Braves fans HATED him. They booed him at every turn, urges Hudson to throw at him whenever he came to bat and wished (prophetically, perhaps) terrible injury on the rookie. It's a game that I won't soon forget.


#1 - Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD: Josh Bell Goes Deep Twice, O's Spank Rangers

It was my first game at OPACY as a credentialed "journalist" and rookie 3B Josh Bell made it a memorable one. Bell's struggles against lefties were well known and he surprised everyone when he hit not one but two homers against lefty Cliff Lee. Luke Scott and Ty Wigginton got in on the act as they also went deep against the Rangers' ace. The crowd was on their feet in the 9th as Koji Uehara closed out the game. The atmosphere was electric and was a snapshot of the excitement Buck Showalter had brought to Baltimore late int he summer of 2010.

Brian Roberts Self-Flagellates Himself to the Bench

This note from Dan Connolly in The Baltimore Sun as Brian Roberts explains that he received concussion-like symptoms from a hit by...himself.


"I don't know 100 percent sure, but it was Monday night. In frustration [after a strikeout], I whacked myself on the head with my bat in the ninth. I had my helmet on," Roberts said. "It's something I've done a million times, but I still can't tell you for sure if that was it. But that's the only thing that I can point to because that night and the next morning, I just didn't feel good. So it's been going on since then....


"I just have some lack of balance and some headaches, and just stuff that hasn't been a whole lot of fun," Roberts said. "So, unfortunately, I haven't been able to obviously get out there and play, but we're still working on trying to get all the results and figure out what's going on."


(sigh)


Brian, it's bad enough that you are a 32-year-old second baseman who has developed back problems and we may have grossly overpaid for with a 4-year extension. Now you are concussed as well?


And here's a clue: When you hit yourself in the head with a bat "a million times", I'm guessing that's your root cause. You can send the other suspects home. You don't need Jimmy McNulty to solve this mystery.


Add this to the laundry list of issues that Roberts will have to be concerned about during Spring Training. (Back trouble, knee trouble, flu-like symptoms....)


And in case you need the point drilled home, Brian, remember Gus Ferrotte.

A Little 2010 Wrapup

The 2010 is, mercifully, in the books.

Sure, the last couple months have seen Buck's Birds playing as well as anyone in the league. But they had to win like hell just to get to 66 wins. Most of the season was, if you recall, miserable.

But the winning was quite remarkable and if you tuned out early to watch the Ravens, you missed the best baseball of the season. Maybe the last 10 years. In August and September(October), the Orioles posted back to back winnings months for the first time since 2005. It is the first winning August and Septmber since 1996. From August 1st, they finished the season on a 34-24 run, a .586 winnings percentage.

However, if the Orioles want to continue their success in 2011, they still need to improve. Outside of Luke Scott, all the hitters underachieved in 2010. They'll need more consistency (and improvement) from the young pitching. And they'll need to add some free agents to the lineup and the pitching staff to continue to compete in the AL East.

But heading into the offseason, there are a lot of reasons to be hopeful. And Buck Showalter has a lot to do with that. Buck's going to have a lot to say about who will be playing first base next season. And third, a short and left  field. You have to like the way he's evaluated the talent so face and you have to expect that he will have a ton of input about who is traded, who they will keep and who they will target in the offseason.

I'll be posting some more wrap up type posts during the rest of this week...and start looking forward to Spring Training.

2010 Chone vs 2010 Results

I took a look back at some of the CHONE projections for some of the key players from your 2010 Baltimore Orioles and compared them with the actual numbers and added a few thoughts.

Wigginton

             AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   HR
Projected   .271  .326  .451  .777   17
Actual      .254  .319  .426  .745   22

I thought the projection for Ty looked a bit optimistic and it turned out that it was. Those aren't bad numbers for a bench/platoon type though. If the Orioles could bring him back next year in that role, I wouldn't be opposed. In the field he is a jack-of-all-trades but master of none type but he is a capable sub around the infield and as a corner outfielder.

Izturis

             AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   HR
Projected   .255  .301  .334  .635    2
Actual      .236  .282  .275  .557    1

Izzy came in well under even the paltry projections. You have to wonder if the glove is good enough to justify the weak bat. I love having a guy out there who is going to catch the ball, I just don't know if it's worth the drawbacks at the plate.

Pie

             AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   HR
Projected   .273  .332  .435  .767   10 
Actual      .271  .303  .399  .703    5

Man, I like Felix Pie but are these the numbers you wanted to see from him in 2010. He was injured but the lack of patience and relative lack of power make him questionable as anything more than a 4th outfielder in the long term

Jones

             AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   HR
Projected   .294  .349  .497  .846   18 
Actual      .280  .322  .440  .762   19

In a recurring theme, Jones basically held steady instead of making real progress with his bat in 2010. Just another young hitter that is not developing much under the Oriole coaches.

Markakis

             AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   HR
Projected   .301  .373  .484  .857   19 
Actual      .293  .366  .426  .791   10

Yeah, yeah...Nick is not living up to expectations. I've beat that horse enough.

Wieters

             AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   HR
Projected   .289  .355  .460  .815   15 
Actual      .252  .322  .383  .706   11

This is a load of crap. Where's the Wieters we were promised? A 15.3% line drive rate? Why can't this kid drive the ball? Buck needs to fix this kid if he hopes to win in Baltimore.

Scott

             AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   HR
Projected   .259  .337  .471  .808   21 
Actual      .288  .365  .545  .910   27

The only regular to outperform expectations, Scott has put together a career year. My head says trade him, my heart says stick him at first base.

Guthrie

             IP     K     BB    HR    ERA
Projected   184.0  107    57    28   4.65 
Actual      201.1  114    57    25   3.98

“If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, looks like a duck, it must be a duck.” Guthrie has outperformed his projections, his FIP and his peripherals for four straight seasons. You have to accept that even though he is not the classic success story, that he is a good pitcher. He doesn't strikeout a bunch of guys, he gives up his share of homers and he doesn't get a ton of ground balls but he limits the walks and finds ways to get the opposition out.

Matusz

             IP     K     BB    HR    ERA
Projected   100.0   80    38    13   4.59 
Actual      169.2  134    61    18   4.40

If you extrapolate the difference in innings, that's a pretty good projection for Matusz. The second half has certainly been encouraging.

Bergesen

             IP     K     BB    HR    ERA
Projected   140.0   73    43    18   4.82 
Actual      163.0   77    51    25   5.02

Fairly close for Bergesen too. Given his strong(er) second half, I like Bergy to improve on these numbers next season. He is, as he always has been, a decent looking back of the rotation starter.

Preseason Predictions Revisited

As the season heads into its final week, it seemed like a good time to revisit my preseason predictions. As it turns out, they were fairly optimistic so they were also largely wrong. Here we go.

* Garrett Atkins won't be a regular with this team by June 15th. Somebody has to come to their senses. Nice clutch hitting in Tampa but that can't last.

Done and done. He was released before the end of June.

* Nick Markakis...breakout! Enos Slaughter for the new millennium. I recycling this from last season.

Yeah. Maybe someday but I'm done expecting anything more than average production from Nick at this point. Wrong.

* Brian Matusz....breakout! Don't be surprised if Matusz is having Tim Lincecum-type success (without the gawdy strikeout totals...but damn good ones) by the second half of the season.

Second half stats from Matusz and Lincecum over their first full season:

K/9    BB/9    K/BB   WHIP   HR   ERA
Matusz         7.0     3.2    2.19   1.30    8  4.27
Lincecum       8.6     4.0    2.15   1.30    5  3.38

Matusz has certainly improved as the season has gone along but not quite to the level I had expected. Close though. The walks are down, the strikeouts are up. Things are moving in the right direction.

* Matt Wieters...breakout! I'm going with the Keith Law prediction of "well over .300 with 20-25 homers" for his sophomore season.

Really wrong on this one. Wieters has actually taken a step back. Not a good sign.

* Adam Jones....no breakout! It would be hard to call this a breakout since he was pretty good last year but I expect that this is the year Jones starts to show people that Adrian Gonzalez is not necessary because the Orioles already have a bat as good in centerfield. Look for an average around .300 with something approaching 25 homers.

Not exactly. If you take away his hideous April, he looks like a guy who can hit at those levels. But he has basically held steady on his production from last year. Wrong.

* 80 wins. That's my guess. And with a little luck...you never know.

You wonder what would have happened if Buck Showalter was managing back in April. But the Orioles were lucky to avoid 100 losses. Wrong, wrong, wrong.

* Ben McDonald becomes a surprise hit on MASN.

He's been fine but no better than Brady Anderson.

* Kevin Millwood 2010 = Rick Sutcliffe 1992

It started out that way but certainly didn't end up there. Sutcliffe finished 1992 with 3.1 WAR for the Orioles. Millwood has 0.9 WAR. Millwood almost met the minimal expectations: league average pitching and eating innings. He pitched 180+ innings, which was good, but a 5.29 ERA is only good for an ERA+ of 80, which is not so good. Wrong.

* Felix Pie forces something this summer...a trade, a position change....something.

Pie has kind of made himself the forerunner for the LF job in 2011 since his return from injury earlier in the season. But a batting line of .274/.304/.401 isn't going to lock it down for him. Thus, I doubt the team makes any moves assuming that Pie will be the man. Not so much on this one.

That was kind of depressing. Anyone ready for 2011?

Nick Markakis and Arbitrary Standards

I'm not above beating a dead horse. This blurb from Phil Rogers column in the Baltimore Sun just got to me...

The Orioles' Nick Markakis remains one of the best hitters no one notices. He entered the weekend with 43 doubles, making him only the third player in history to have four consecutive seasons of at least 43 doubles. The other two were Joe Medwick and Tris Speaker.


OK. On the surface that seems kind of impressive, accomplishing something that only two other players have done in the entire history of baseball and keeping some company with Hall of Famers while you're at it.


But a closer look shows otherwise. A cumulative comparison of the four consecutive seasons of 43 doubles or more for each player:

                    AVG    OBP   SLG   OPS+   2B   HR
Markakis '07-'10   .297   .370  .462   120   180   71
Speaker  '20-'23   .377   .467  .578   169   209   39 
Medwick  '35-'38   .351   .390  .583   158   213   93

And their numbers through the end of their age 26 season:

             AVG    OBP   SLG   OPS+   2B   HR
Markakis    .296   .367  .460   118   205   87
Speaker     .340   .413  .494   168   216   39 
Medwick     .338   .373  .560   147   305  131

You can make the case that Markakis is an underrated hitter but not because he hit a bunch of doubles. Speaker and Medwick were on another level when it came to hitting. Markakis brings one aspect of their game but is not the superior hitter that these guys were. Comparing Nick to those guys because of some arbitrary numbers is misguided and an incomplete assessment of his abilities.

I think there is an "Emperor's New Clothes" syndrome when it comes to local writers and fans assessing Nick's true worth. He certainly was one of the more underrated hitters in the game but coming off what is arguably his weakest offensive season, he has become overrated instead. Decent hitter. Not a great one.

Around the Oriole Blog-O-Sphere: Spoiler Alert Edition

Brooks Robinson's career nearly spoiled in Vancouver? Read the true story here!

If you're going to bunt, at least be good at it. Roar from 34 tries to identify the best bunters in Baltimore.

Some guy wrote a Dear John letter to the Baltimore Orioles over at Yahoo Sports.

Hot off his victory against Boston, Expatriate (Baltimore Sports Report) ponders the second-half resurgence of Brad Bergesen.

Funniest. Post. Ever.

Neal S of The Loss Column ponders the strangeness of facing the Red Sox in late September with nothing for Baltimore to spoil.

Forget playing spoiler. Patrick Smith at Bugs & Cranks believes the Orioles have finally come into their own. Almost.

Paul Swaney of Stadium Journey recently reviewed Harbor Park, home of the Norfolk Tides. If you enjoyed that one, he's also reviewed Camden Yards, Harry Grove Stadium (home of the Frederick Keys) and Prince Georges Stadium (home of the Bowie Baysox).

On a subject that is close to my heart, The Oriole Way presents his review of new beer bar Alewife...one that happens to be less than half a mile from Gate H at Camden Yards.

The Eutaw Street Hooligans honor Nick Markakis for being only the third player in MLB history to hit 43 doubles for four straight seasons.