Andy MacPhail's Christmas Gift to Baltimore

The Orioles have plenty of holes to fill this offseason and seemingly every offseason. But there is one critical position that they do not have to fill. Shortstop.

You could make the argument that the rarest commodity in the free agent market this season is a shortstop who can hit and field his position well. (OK, good all-around catchers and starting pitching is probably a rarer commodity.) But thanks to the dealings of former team president Andy MacPhail over the last year, the O's don't have to overpay for that talent now.

Last December, MacPhail dealt a couple of minor league relievers to the Twins for SS J.J. Hardy. For a couple of spare parts, Hardy turned out to be a low-cost, low-risk gamble that paid off big for the O's. Hardy played a good defensive shortstop, posted an .801 OPS and had 57 extra base hits. It was a performance from a Baltimore shortstop that we haven't seen since the early days of the Miguel Tejada era.

Knowing how tight the shortstop market would be after the season, MacPhail and the Orioles signed Hardy to a 3-year extension for a total contract of $22.5M. Given Hardy's age and skillset the contract stacks up very well to what other free agent shortstops are getting this offseaon.

                 AGE   3-year OPS+  3-year WAR total   Total Contract  Yearly Average
J. Reyes          29      120            9.9               $111M          $18.5M
J. Rollins        33       91            9.3                $33M          $11.0M
R. Furcal         34       98            8.2                $14M           $7.0M
Y. Betancourt     30       77           -0.7                 $2M           $2.0M
J.J. Hardy        29       98            8.7              $22.5M           $7.5M

In a market where Ronny Cedeno is now considered a hot commodity and other free agents are going for much more, Hardy's extension looks like a relative bargain.

And unlink some other free agents signed last offseason to play in Baltimore, Hardy actually will be a tradeable commodity come July.

No, Hardy is not the player Reyes is when he's healthy and Hardy certainly has some injury risks of his own but he is very likely to fill the shortstop position until Manny Machado is ready to take over or bring back some other prospects to replentish the farm system. And the Orioles don't have to overpay this offseason to get a competent shortstop.

Thanks, Andy. You had many good moments as GM but Hardy may turn out to be one of your better ones.

J.J. Hardy Coming to Baltimore

This time, the Orioles got their man.

Last night, the Twins agreed to send SS J.J. Hardy and IF Brendan Harris to Baltimore for minor league relievers Brett Jacobsen and Jim Hoey.

In a market where legitimate shortstops were scarce, the Orioles got the best one available. Hardy will be 27 next season and is a good bet to be a league average hitter. Unlike Jason Bartlett, (who the O's were linked to earlier in the week) he's also a very good fielder. He represents a huge upgrade over Cesar Izturis. Speaking of Izturis, in terms of UZR, Hardy's just as good with the glove as Izzy was, maybe just a hair better. A glove like Izturis who is a league average hitter? It's a big swing in talent for the shortstop position. He should make $5-6 million in 2011 after arbitration.

When Ty Wigginton was signed by the Rockies, I started looking at other free agent options for a new Oriole sutility infielder. As you might imagine, the options were not that appealing. Not that Brendan Harris is any great shakes either but he can play all around the infield and is already signed to a reasonable $1.75 million for 2011. Again, he's not a great player but he a better bet to be a league average hitter than Robert Andino, the only viable internal option.

The O's dealt from one of their only areas of depth in the minors: relief arms. RP Brett Jacobsen came to Baltimore in the Aubrey Huff trade and pitched last season in high-A Frederick. He pitched well in relief with 8.5 K/9 and a 2.79 K/BB ratio. But he is, after all, a relief proswpect in the low minors and he will not be missed.

RP Jim Hoey made his major league debut in 2006 showing a big fastball but one that was very hittable in the majors. He's battled wildness and inuries since and although he had a nice season between AA and AAA last season, he's still just a fringe relief prosepct at this point. Again, in this organization, he will not be missed.

The left side of the infield is set for 2011. Time to go get a first baseman.

Thoughts on the Weekend Deals: What it Means to the Orioles

Lots of Hot Stove goings on over the weekend. Here's a quick look at how it all impacts the Baltimore Orioles.

Jayson Werth Signs with the Nationals: The Nats signed Werth to an insane 7-year, $126 million contract. If Werth was 26 or 27, maybe this wouldn't sound so nuts but Werth is going to be 32 in 2011 and is coming off a career season. It's hard to imagine a scenario where this contract turns out well for Washington. As I said on Twitter, I would rather the Orioles did nothing than give someone a silly contract like that.

Ken Rosenthal seems to think that the Werth deal puts pressure on the Orioles to overpay for a free agent now but in his column about the signing calls the contract "insane". I hope the Orioles don't feel any pressure to do something colossally stupid.

Twins Tender Contract to JJ Hardy: If the Twins had decided not to tender Hardy a contract, he would have been a reasonably priced solution for Baltimore's shortstop vacancy. Now, he may still be a reasonably prices option after arbitration but the Orioles will have to work out a deal with the Twins to make it happen.

Adrian Gonzalez traded to Boston: Much sturm und drang among Oriole fans when this deal went down. But I went over the prospects the Red Sox sent to San Diego and Baltimore could not match it. For prospects, it would have started with Zach Britton and Xavier Avery. Then they would have had to throw in some major league talent to sweeten the pot, probably Brian Matusz or Adam Jones plus a couple bullpen arms or Jake Arrieta. That's the minimum. The team is just not deep enough in talent to put together a package like Boston did. And if they did, the team would be so gutted of talent, Gonzalez probably wouldn't want to sign an extension anyway.  It was never in the cards for the O's and Gonzalez, not this offseason.

However, with Gonzalez in Boston, Kevin Youkilis will move over to third base. The Sox now have no need for free agent third baseman Adrian Beltre. With Oakland removing themselves from the pool of Beltre suitors, that basically leaves the Angels and the Orioles as viable destinations. Beltre is a guy worth overpaying for. I stumped for him last offseason and the argument still holds up:

Beltre will only be 31 (now 32) next season and while he has flaws as a hitter, his glove more than makes up for it.

He has good power but he's a free swinger (although his walk rate is better in recent years than when he came up). His home/away splits for his career lean heavily toward the road since he has made his home in Dodger Stadium and Safeco Field for his entire career. His OPS is nearly 100 points higher on the road.

He would be an extremely dangerous hitter in OPACY and as long as he's healthy going into the 2010 (now 2011) season, I wouldn't have an issue with a 4 year contract for him. I probably wouldn't be upset with a longer deal either.

Good power, great glove. It works.



I would have some slight trepidation about a deal longer than 4 seasons now and anything past 5 would put the contract in the Jayson Werth range as far as risk. But the Orioles should go hard and see what it would take to get him to Camden Yards.

The Oriole Windfall for 2011, Part 3

Shortstop


Pricey Options

None. The Orioles can't afford, nor should they want, Derek Jeter. Even if the Mets do not pick up Jose Reyes' option, he is an injury risk and would be expensive regardless. Japanese SS Hiroyuki Nakajima will probably not be posted by the Seibu Lions. The Phillies will not decline Jimmy Rollins' option.

That leaves...

Mid-Range Options

J..J Hardy

Hardy isn't hitting like he did a couple years ago but still has some pop in his bat and his glove is still very legitimate at short. He has posted UZRs of 6.1, 6.1 and 8.1 over the past three seasons. But his struggles at the plate have diminished his value. You should be able to sign the guy for 2 seasons at $5-6 mil per season and he will provide a fair bat and good defense until (perhaps) Manny Machado gets to Baltimore.

Orlando Cabrera

Cabrera will be 36 next season but can still play a decent shortstop. There's also a slight chance his bat returns to pre-2010 levels (which would be a nice upgrade from Cesar Izturis' bat). He could be worth a one year gamble in the neighborhood of $3 mil.

Budget Options

Cesar Izturis

Izturis is all about the glove. If you just want a glove who will come cheap, Izturis may be your man. A one year deal at around $2 mil. Or...

Robert Andino

Andino may be able to play just as well at short and play for the league minimum. If you're just going to punt on the shortstop position in 2011 anyway, it may be worth it to just plug Andino in and see what happens. There is still a long shot that his bat improves, we can't say that about Izturis.


Starting Pitching

Pricey Options

None

Sure, the Orioles could go all in on Cliff Lee but the Rangers and the Yankees already have inside tracks on his services.

Mid-Range

Javier Vasquez

Make no mistake, Vasquez had a poor year in his return to the Bronx. And it was for real. His 5.32 ERA was backed by a 5.56 FIP and a 4.90 xFIP. But he could come at a bargain and/or a short contract. A one-year, incentive laden deal could add an average veteran arm. $6-8 mil for one season should get it done.

Jake Westbrook


Westbrook was expected to sign an extension with the Cardinals but all has been quiet on that front. It would probably take a three-year deal to sign Westbrook, probably around $8 mil per season. The only question is, do you want a mediocre pitcher on the wrong side of 32 signed for 3 seasons? He will certainly have value...but in theory, the Orioles have better options coming up through the system.

Budget Options


The Motley Crew


There are a ton of interesting options from the group of injury risks and cast-offs out there this year. Tiger hurler Jeremy Bonderman is still just 28 and there is still time to harness some of his potential. Ditto for the Marlins' Andrew Miller, a former 1st round pick who hasn't panned out in the bigs but is just 25 and is a flame-throwing lefty. Former Oriole John Maine is likely to be non-tendered by the Mets. Brandon McCarthy, Jeff Suppan, Zach Duke and Noah Lowry are also going to be out there, as well as other vets nearing the end of their careers.

These are not sexy options but if you sign two or three of them to compete for a spot in the rotation, perhaps one works out. If not, you can send them to the bullpen. Remember, this is how we got Jeremy Guthrie. Low cost, low risk.

The Bullpen


If you read this blog even casually, you know how I fell about the construction of the bullpen. Most of our bullpen for 2011 is already in the organization. Fill out the pen with current players under contract (including Michael Gonzlaez, who we just have to hope and pray can be worth anything close to the $6 mil he'll be making this season) and fill in the holes with arms from AAA and veteran cast-offs (see Will Ohman, 2010).

Next time, we'll (finally) wrap this up with a look at how I think the roster should be constructed and the financial ramifications of those roster moves...