J.J. Hardy Coming to Baltimore

This time, the Orioles got their man.

Last night, the Twins agreed to send SS J.J. Hardy and IF Brendan Harris to Baltimore for minor league relievers Brett Jacobsen and Jim Hoey.

In a market where legitimate shortstops were scarce, the Orioles got the best one available. Hardy will be 27 next season and is a good bet to be a league average hitter. Unlike Jason Bartlett, (who the O's were linked to earlier in the week) he's also a very good fielder. He represents a huge upgrade over Cesar Izturis. Speaking of Izturis, in terms of UZR, Hardy's just as good with the glove as Izzy was, maybe just a hair better. A glove like Izturis who is a league average hitter? It's a big swing in talent for the shortstop position. He should make $5-6 million in 2011 after arbitration.

When Ty Wigginton was signed by the Rockies, I started looking at other free agent options for a new Oriole sutility infielder. As you might imagine, the options were not that appealing. Not that Brendan Harris is any great shakes either but he can play all around the infield and is already signed to a reasonable $1.75 million for 2011. Again, he's not a great player but he a better bet to be a league average hitter than Robert Andino, the only viable internal option.

The O's dealt from one of their only areas of depth in the minors: relief arms. RP Brett Jacobsen came to Baltimore in the Aubrey Huff trade and pitched last season in high-A Frederick. He pitched well in relief with 8.5 K/9 and a 2.79 K/BB ratio. But he is, after all, a relief proswpect in the low minors and he will not be missed.

RP Jim Hoey made his major league debut in 2006 showing a big fastball but one that was very hittable in the majors. He's battled wildness and inuries since and although he had a nice season between AA and AAA last season, he's still just a fringe relief prosepct at this point. Again, in this organization, he will not be missed.

The left side of the infield is set for 2011. Time to go get a first baseman.

Checking In With the Farm Clubs - High Minors

Not as much to look at in the upper levels as there was in the lower levels...but here they are.

Bowie Baysox

Joel Guzman - 1B/3B/OF

Guzman is a former top prospect in the Dodger organization who flamed out and has bounced around for the last three years. However, the 25-year-old Guzman is hitting .272/.336/.535 with 17 homers for Bowie this season.

Late bloomer? Who knows? But he's an interesting hitter who plays a position that the Orioles need. (I don't know if I should be enthused that the O's found Guzman or depressed that he is, by far, the most promising hitter on the Baysox this season...)

Zach Britton - SP

The top Oriole prospect in the high minors, the 22-year-old Britton continues to impress. His ground ball rate stands at 65.2% this season and that's no fluke; his GB% has been 63% or above for the last four seasons.

K/BB ratio is still more than 2 to 1 and a 2.62 ERA at AA should lead Britton to a promotion to Norfolk before season's end.

Eddie Gamboa - RP

I like Eddie. He rose fast last season and has continued to turn in good work in Bowie. He's striking out a batter an inning and while the walk rate is not great, the K/BB ratio is still 2.5 to 1. He's just another reason I think the bullpen can be rebuilt from within.



Jim Hoey - RP

Hoey seems to have worked himself back from injury problems to and is striking out batters like crazy (11.5 K/9). I guess I'll believe it if he starts doing it at AAA again.



Norfolk Tides

Josh Bell - 3B

Bell has been maligned for a couple reasons this season. First, he can't hit lefties and people are demanding that he abandon switch hitting. (I've never really understood that argument. How do we know he can hit lefties better batting lefthanded than righthanded?) Second, he has not hit overall like he was expected to after his promotion to AAA.

The L/R splits are troubling. However, his bat is probably not as bad as it looks right now. First, his offensive numbers have improved each month of the season:

Slash Line    BB   K   HR
Apr  .238/.256/.405    2  21    3
May  .282/.325/.455    7  29    3
June .275/.367/.451    7  12    2

After a horrific April, he has focused on being more selective at the plate and it has paid off. Taking away April, his K/BB ratio is 3 to 1, not terrific but it's respectable and trending the right way.

Furthermore, according to Minor League Splits, if you normalize his numbers for park factor and luck, his .265/.312/.437 line becomes .294/.338/.494.

He's trending well and hitting better than his numbers show. He won't be pushing Miguel Tejada out of town this season liked many had hoped but he's having a productive season for a 23-year-old in AAA.



Brandon Snyder - 1B

Some better trends for Snyder as well, although in a different manner than Bell.

After putting up an OPS's of .615 and .659 in April and May respectively, Snyder is posting a line of .327/.389/.531 in June. He still isn't walking enough but this follows Snyder's development through the minors thus far. He tends to have a long learning curve when he moves up a level but when he gets it, he catches fire. It has taken him 5 months at AAA to come around but this may be the turning point that lands Snyder in the majors in 2011.

I don't think Snyder will ever be a great first baseman but he will be serviceable enough that we won't have to sign the like of Garrett Atkins again. (Not that we needed to in the first place...)




Tim Bascom - SP

Bascom is the starting pitcher who is closest to Baltimore now that Jake Arrieta was promoted. His stuff is marginal and he's a flyball pitcher but he has improved through each level, especially with his control as his walk rate is a minuscule 1.4 BB/9 in Bowie and Norfolk combined. He paints the corners and will have to hope his control and stuff are good enough to work the edges in the majors...but it could work.



Dennis Sarfate - RP

Just a quick note about Sarfate...

Yeah, he's got his velocity back and he's striking out 11.79 per 9 innings. But his walk rate is 5.32 K/9 and that's not going to play at the next level. Get it under control Dennis.

O's Swept, Winning Season Slipping Away...

...and Andy McPhail seems to see it that way too.

Looking toward the future, McPhail dumped (essentially) utilityman Chris Gomez and lefty reliever John Parrish yesterday.

I like John Parrish. He's a product of the organization and he can be a good pitcher...in small doses. Parrish was overworked early in the season and was never really the same after mid-May. As strictly a LOOGY type who comes out only to face a lefty hitter or two each appearance, I think he would be fine. Unfortunately, this team doesn't have the luxury of carrying a guy like that, the bullpen is too unsettled and the starting rotation doesn't have guys that go 6 or 7 innings on a regular basis. If you're making a playoff run, Parrish can be useful but not for us. In return the O's get Sebstien Boucher, a AAA outfielder with some speed but a guy who hasn't hit much above A ball.

There seems to be some considerable angst from O's fans about the loss of Chris Gomez for basically nothing. I really don't get it the concern. Gomez is a nice part-time player but that's it. He's hitting .300 but it's a light .300 with as he's only slugging .391. He's versatile but won't Freddie Bynum be just as versatile when healthy? Or Brandon Fahey? Even Luis Hernandez has shown enough to be considered for a utility role. Gomez is also 36 and not in the team's plans beyond this year anyway. Again, a fine role player who I would love to have if Baltimore was thinking playoff run but he's not right for this team now. We have younger, cheaper talent that we can have fill that role next year.

I like that Jim Hoey is up again, hopefully for the rest of the season. He's dominated AA and AAA this year so it's time for him to learn how to get teh big boys out. Now, calling up Tike Redmond I really don't understand. If Jay Gibbons is really that hurt, put him on the DL and bring up J.R House. House can flat out hit and he doesn't have a position either!

Anyway, hopefully some guys who may be involved in the Orioles' future will get a look this fall.

Can The Bullpen Be Fixed?

O's fans, there's no sense in getting upset when the Baltimore bullpen coughs up a lead this season. The season is lost and it's now open auditions for the bullpen spots. It's time to find out if anybody on this team can stabilize the 'pen in preparation for next year.

Chad Bradford and Jamie Walker are exempt from this conversation. They signed for big money in the offseason and have pitched well. Look for them to share the seventh and eighth innings, trading off as the setup man for the rest of the year. Who else?

Chris Ray

Some rate stats for Ray comparing last year to this year

       FIP    K/9   BB/9   HR/9

2006  4.87    7.4    3.9   1.44

2007  4.14    9.0    3.6   1.19

Ray has blown 4 saves this year this year compared to 5 all of last year but in
most important categories he is actually pitching better than last year. The
problem? A lot of balls are finding holes this year where last year the defense
bailed him out a bit more. I think Ray will have things go more his way in the
second half and he should remain the closer next year.

Danys Baez

He reluctantly signed with the O's to setup for Ray but failed to do so effectively and now the O's may be reluctant to bring him back next year. Most peripheral stats (WHIP, K/9) are consistent with his career numbers but he just gave up way too many homeruns to remain effective. It's hard to say what his role may be until he comes off the DL. He certainly needs to put together a strong second half to have a good shot to make the club next year.

Paul Shuey

Shuey's been a nice story but the results haven't been good in the majors do far. He hasn't struck out that many but he's walked just as many as he's punched out which is not a good combination for a reliever. He's also got a WHIP close to 2.00. He'll get a chance to pitch until Baez gets healthy but I don't think he's much more than a mopup guy anymore.

John Parrish

Parrish was a nice story early in the season and it would probably be a bit unfair to judge him on this season's performance given the workload Sam Perlozzo laid on him. Except for one thing. It's a dirty little secret that Parrish walks batters at vintage Daniel Cabrera type rates. You can get away with that if you go 7 innings on a regular basis, not as a reliever. He has to go.

Kurt Birkins

I really want to like Birkins. His K rates and walk rates in the minors are impressive but he has yet to translate that into major league success. He gives up a lot of hits, even in AAA. He has the talent to pitch around those hits in Norfolk but he sure doesn't have the talent to pitch around them in Baltimore. Maybe he will be useful one day but I don't see it anytime soon.

Rob Bell

The journeyman, mostly in the minors, has been a strikeout ace in the minors but, like Birkins, hasn't translated it into big league success...until now. The O's are the first team to give Bell a significant look out of the bullpen and the 2.89 ERA is misleading (he has only 6 K's and 7 BB in his six games this season) and he may not get a chance to sort himself out in Baltimore but he's an intriguing possibility for long relief.

Cory Doyne

I like relievers who were closers in the minors, even if they never end up closing for the big club and Doyne has already saved 26 at midseason (setting a new record for the Tides franchise) and is posting a K/BB ratio of over 3 to 1. I like his chances to break with the club out of Spring Training next year and maybe even begin playing a pivotal role in the bullpen starting in August.

Jim Hoey

Hoey dominated the Eastern League, saving 14 games, appearing in 20 and posting a 0.00 ERA! His ERA in Norfolk has been 1.65 up to this point but he is striking out batters at an even higher rate and the International League is only batting .151 against him. It's just a matter of time before his talent begins to translate against big league hitters. The 24 year old is dominant and should be in the O's pen next year.

Brian Burres

I like Burres but I think his future is in the pen, not in the rotation. Assuming he's not forced into the rotation again, he'll be the primary long man next year.

Predicted O's bullpen for 2008:

Chris Ray - Closer

Chad Bradford - Setup

Jamie Walker - Setup

Brian Burres - Long Relief

Jim Hoey - Relief

Cory Doyne - Relief

That could be a dominant 'pen.