Monday, December 28, 2009

Looking Back at My WAR Predictions for 2009...

I was preparing my WAR spreadsheet for 2010 and took a look at my 2009 sheet. I won't go over every gory detail but thought I would list a few I got right and a few I got really, really wrong.

Best Predictions for Hitters:

Matt Wieters

Predicted: 2.0 WAR
Actual: 1.9 WAR

I tempered my enthusiasm and basically got this right. A slow start but a furious finish is pretty much what I expected.

Cesar Izturis

Predicted 1.2 WAR
Actual: 1.3 WAR

He was who we thought he was. Flashy glove and not much else.

Brian Roberts

Predicted: 3.6 WAR
Actual: 3.4 WAR

Another steady year from Roberts. Pretty easy to figure this one.

Worst Batter Projections:

Aubrey Huff

Predicted: 1.7 WAR
Actual: -0.4 WAR

I thought Huff would take a big step back from 2008 but I didn't see the utter collapse. Ouch.

Nick Markakis

Predicted: 6.1 WAR
Actual: 2.2 WAR

I predicted, loudly and often, that Markakis would have a breakout year in 2009. Instead, he took a step back.

Ryan Freel

Predicted: 0.7 WAR
Actual: -0.2 WAR

I didn't expect big things from Freel but thought he would add some value (mostly defensive) up the middle. No chance.

I won't even bother doing the pitchers. Sure, I got Uehara's value right but the rest of the rotation and bullpen was such a mess, there was no way to predict who would be pitching by the time September rolled around.

If you want to see more, my 2009 WAR Spreadsheet is here.

No comments: