I cmpletely stole the idea for this series from an article over at The Hardball Times. For my projections, I have used CHONE, Marcel and the Bill James projections. I will then use my mediocre baseball knowledge to predict whether the player will surpass or fall short of the average projections.
Miguel Tejada
R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB K BA OBP SLG OPS
Marcel 86 178 36 2 23 97 5 2 41 74 .312 .362 .503 .864
CHONE 92 187 37 2 24 98 4 1 44 72 .307 .361 .490 .852
Bill James 97 194 39 1 27 112 5 2 47 80 .304 .360 .495 .856
AVG 92 186 37 2 25 102 5 2 44 75 .308 .361 .496 .857
All projections call for a slight but significant drop in OPS for Tejada next year and all are fairly consistent with Marcel being most optimistic. The only counter to these projections is the argument that the supporting cast around Tejada will be better this year and he may see better pitches this year.
Melvin Mora
R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB K BA OBP SLG OPS
Marcel 87 157 28 1 20 81 9 3 51 97 .286 .355 .450 .805
CHONE 91 155 25 1 19 61 8 3 48 101 .265 .334 .409 .743
James 92 169 31 1 20 83 9 5 59 110 .278 .353 .431 .784
AVG 90 160 28 1 20 75 9 4 53 103 .276 .347 .430 .777
The predictions here vary a bit but even the most pessimistic projection shows a flatline versus a regression. Still, the average projection shows a decent rebound from last year. I don't think he will surpass the average projection.
Brian Roberts
R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB K BA OBP SLG OPS
Marcel 81 149 36 4 11 56 26 8 55 73 .292 .360 .442 .802
CHONE 93 156 36 3 10 56 28 7 60 73 .283 .355 .412 .766
Bill James 94 172 39 3 10 59 32 11 66 78 .286 .357 .410 .768
AVG 89 159 37 3 10 57 29 9 60 75 .287 .357 .421 .779
Projections range from a modest to significant increase in OPS. This is mostly due to projections for increased walks instead of increased power. a fully healthy Roberts should surpass the averages as a bit of power should return.
Kevin Millar
R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB K BA OBP SLG OPS
Marcel 61 120 27 1 13 59 2 1 51 78 .275 .360 .430 .790
CHONE 63 116 23 1 14 53 1 1 54 78 .263 .357 .412 .769
Bill James 52 107 25 1 13 56 1 0 45 70 .275 .364 .447 .811
AVG 59 114 25 1 13 56 1 1 50 75 .271 .360 .430 .790
These are all fairly consistent projections but Millar is going to be a wildcard since you just don't know how much playing time he's going to get. We'll take this production over 400 AB any day.
Ramon Hernandez
R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB K BA OBP SLG OPS
Marcel 58 131 27 2 19 78 2 1 37 68 .279 .337 .466 .803
CHONE 67 132 25 2 20 65 1 0 37 64 .282 .344 .473 .818
Bill James 59 131 27 1 19 79 1 0 40 71 .270 .335 .447 .782
AVG 61 131 26 2 19 74 1 0 38 68 .277 .339 .462 .801
A slight decline is being predicted for Ramon but I don't buy it. He loves hitting in Camden Yards and you can't discount that factor. Some parks just suit a hitter's strengths and Hernandez and Oriole Park are a match made in baseball heaven. Hernandez will exceed the average prrojection and look alot like the CHONE prediction.
Jay Gibbons
R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB K BA OBP SLG OPS
Marcel 51 110 25 2 17 59 1 1 32 60 .272 .327 .470 .798
CHONE 54 110 24 1 16 61 0 0 34 59 .270 .328 .451 .779
Bill James 48 105 25 1 17 58 0 0 32 56 .266 .325 .464 .789
AVG 51 108 25 1 17 59 0 0 33 58 .269 .327 .462 .789
Health is the question here and if they keep Gibbons at the DH primarily, he should have it. The above projections are based on 400 AB and if he gets that many Gibbons should get 20 HR this year. Health notwithstanding, he will surpass these numbers.
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