Around the Oriole Blog-O-Sphere: Turkey Day Edition

Ross Gore of Baltimore Sport Report thinks that new Oriole hitting coach Jim Presley is just what the Baltimore hitters need.

Patrick Smith of Bugs and Cranks would've like to have seen Victor Martinez in the middle of the O's lineup but wonders what position he would have played.

I guess I wasn't the only one who was surprised that the Orioles did not offer arbitration to Koji Uehara and The Baltimore Sun's Jeff Zrebiec tries to get to the bottom of that decision. The bottom line is that the Orioles were scared of a pay raise in arbitration for Koji and the belief that he will want to come back to Baltimore anyway.

According to MLBTradeRumors.com, seven American League teams recently watched former Oriole 1st round pick Larry Bigbie work out. The teams reportedly have interest in Bigbie as a corner outfielder or DH. Bigbie played last season for the Edmonton Capitals of the independent Golden Baseball League. Bigbie was named to Baseball America's All-Independent League team as the DH. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't rooting for him.

Andrew_G of Camden Chat breaks down the new members of the Oriole coaching staff.

The Eutaw Street Hooligans don't like the idea of Derek Jeter in Baltimore any more than I do. In fact, they seem to like it even less.

Craig Calcaterra thinks that the Orioles should be thankful for Buck Showalter although he wonders if Buck isn't the sentient version of Annie Savoy's garters.

Roar from 34 looks back at a political controversy involving the Orioles, the governor of Maryland and the commissioner of baseball.

The Loss Column finds some things to be thankful for in Baltimore sports...beyond the Ravens.

Kevin takes a look at the Oriole coaching changes, as he would, through the prism of baseball cards.

Guy Thinks Derek Jeter Should Be An Oriole and He Doesn't Work for The Onion

From The Toy Department at BaltimoreSun.com:

Orioles need to sign Derek Jeter

Hoo boy.

As baseball's Winter Meetings approach and the Orioles begin looking to upgrade their roster, they need to do something bold to build on the buzz created by hiring Buck Showalter.


They need to sign Derek Jeter.

Well, it would certainly create buzz. The Orioles created a lot of buzz by spending big bucks on their bullpen a few seasons back. It was bad buzz. That is the kind of buzz this will create.

The Orioles have many holes -- first base, third base, veteran starting pitching and the bullpen. But they also need a shortstop. More importantly, they need a leader.


They need Derek Jeter.

Ah, a leader! Why didn't you say so? Jeter would make an excellent bench coach. Hell, Showalter can start grooming him to take over the helm in a few years. Jeter's a smart guy, he'd be great manager material.

Sure, he's 36 and will turn 37 during the 2011 season. But he's durable, playing at least 150 games the past seven seasons. His batting average fell from .334 to .270 and his home run total dropped by eight to just 10. But he drove in 67 runs and won a Gold Glove. He's no Cesar Izturis defensively, but he's solid and his hitting numbers crush those of Izturis.

Wait a second...he suggesting that Baltimore signs him as a player? Really...wow, ok. Let's take a closer look at this then...

The author, Ron Fritz, has already made the greatest case against Derek Jeter, a case he tries to dismiss. His age. Jeter will be 37 in 2011 which doesn't bode well for his bat. In the history of baseball, only 3 shortstops 37 and older have posted a season OPS+ greater than 100. That's Honus Wagner, Luke Appling and Ozzie Smith. Looking at the top OPS+ seasons from a shortstop since 1980:

Year   OPS+ 
O. Smith    1992    105
O. Vizquel  2004     99
O. Vizquel  2006     93
O. Smith    1993     88
O. Vizquel  2005     82

At best, you might get a season of Derek Jeter producing at league average at the plate. The rest of the time, if you're lucky, you get a graceful decline into mediocrity. But middle infielders do not age well and Jeter is already aged. His OPS+ of 90 in 2010 was a career low, which, in a round about way, the author references (but defends him with an RBI stat which, in the face of everything else, is immaterial).

Gold Glove? Here's my response: Gold Glove, scholdglove. Jeter hasn't been even an average defender in more than 10 years, let alone an elite one. Furthermore, you can make a very good argument that he is one of the worst regular shortstops in the league. If you want to refute that fact with Fielding Percentage, I suppose you can delude yourself about his glove but it won't change the reality.

The author is correct in stating that Jeter will outhit Cesar Izturis but that is like boasting that Adam Jones can smoke Matt Wieters in the 100-yard dash. It's hardly the measuring stick you want to use to demonstrate competence.

So you would be signing an aging player with a mediocre bat and a bad glove to man what is arguably the most important defensive position on the field. But Jeter would probably provide more value than Izturis in 2011. I'll hear him out.

Jeter also would bring five World Series titles, command respect in the locker room and show a young Orioles team how to play the game. The future Hall of Famer is 74 hits from 3,000. If there is one thing the Orioles do well, it's milestone ceremonies.

I don't believe for a second that the Steinbrenners will let Jeter remove those World Series trophies from Yankee Stadium and bring them down I-95. OK, he is beloved by the Yankees, so maybe one. But not all five.

He would command respect and he could demonstrate a professional manner of play to the youngsters. But couldn't he do that as a coach? Can't we explore that avenue again?

And then he suggests that the Orioles sign a player because the Orioles really know how to throw a party.

There is not one point in that paragraph that supports the argument that Jeter improves the Orioles on the field.

But hey, a one-year deal for $5 mil or so...probably worth Baltimore's time...

If the Yankees are willing to let Jeter test the free-agency market, then the Orioles should be there with an offer, somewhere in the four-year, $60 million range. Really, whatever it takes. Ask Cal Ripken Jr. to help recruit him. And then, because you have a shortstop who does more than hit singles, you can maybe re-sign Ty Wigginton to play third or first and still be able to spend decent money for another corner infielder.

*drops plate of hot wings*

Wow...4 years for $60 million? He would be the highest paid player on the team. That's more than I suggested that the Orioles throw at Adam Dunn, a player still in his prime. How does Fritz expect the Orioles to get their money's worth on that deal? They'll be paying a 40-year old shortstop $15 mil in 2014. By then, he certainly won't be hitting anything but singles, if he is hitting at all.

The lunacy of that suggested offer speaks for itself.

Not to mention...who says he'll play for that? He's balking at similar offers from the Yankees already. It would take something closer to $20 million to lure him from the Big Apple. It's a contract that would hamstring the Orioles for years to come. It would be worse than the Barry Zito deal, the Aaron Rowand deal, any of them. An albatross. A debacle.

It would be a PR disaster for the Yankees, it would hurt them on the field and maybe, just maybe, his signing would send a signal to other free agents that Baltimore is a great place to play.

$15 mil a season could run a hell of a disinformation campaign against the Yankees. And it wouldn't hurt the Orioles on the field like Jeter would for 648 games.

If the Miguel Tejada signing didn't improve opinions about Baltimore as a place to play, why would the Jeter signing do so? It'll look like a better destination when the play on the field is respectable.

Imagine Showalter and Ripken holding a No. 2 Orioles jersey with Jeter on the back as they announce the signing. They couldn't print tickets fast enough at Camden Yards.

*shudder*

Don't do that again.

The seats would be full for a couple games until they fans see Jeter field up close. Then they will leave again.

Yeah, I know he's a Yankee, and Orioles fans hate the Yankees. But they hate losing even more. What better way to end years of futility than signing one of the all-time great leaders and winners in the sport?

The fact that he is a Yankee is number 9 or 10 on my list of reasons not to give $60 million to Derek Jeter. Is Ron suggesting that Jeter alone is worth 16 wins? Really? Does he have access to those Angels in the Outfield? Can he truly make runs appear on the scoreboard with sheer will?

If you put Albert Pujols on this team, are you still certain the team could break even? I'm not.

Would he consider playing for the Orioles? It's time to find out.

A) He wouldn't consider that.
B) No, it not. It's really not.

The Orioles need to sign Derek Jeter.

I had to pinch myself to make sure it wasn't April Fool's Day or something. It's a completely absurd post. Is it a fan post? Who is this guy? My only conclusion is that this is a post designed to be controversial and attract attention. Which it did, if only from this small part of the Oriole blogosphere.

For Gold Gloves, A Picture is Worth a Thousand Words

A graph showing Total Zone defensive ratings for the firt 15 years of Derek Jeter's and Cal Ripken, Jr.'s careers:

Gold Gloves for Jeter: 5
Gold Gloves for Ripken: 2

For more on this, see this post. And maybe this one too.

WAR Graphs: Ripken, Jeter and Trammell

Inspired by the work of Beyond the Boxscore (and apologies if they have done this particular graph), a comparison of the seasons in terms of WAR of three long playing shortstops: Cal Ripken, Jr., Derek Jeter and Alan Trammell. The seasons are arranged in order of greatest to worst regardless of timeline:

First, notice the sheer dominance of Cal Ripken, Jr especially over Derek Jeter. Second, notice how closely the lines of Trammel and Jeter mirror each other over the course of their career. Jeter is a sure-fire, first ballot Hall of Famer. Alan Trammell has never exceeded 20% of the needed votes to be elected in his 8 years on the ballot. Just some food for thought.

(By the way, you can thank Scott Garceau for the loose continuing series of "Jeter vs. Ripken" posts. There will be more...)

Ripken vs. Jeter: Not Even Close

While I was up in the Baltimore area during opening week, I listened to a fair amount of local sports radio to catch up on the Orioles. Most of it was fine but I did hear somebody repeat a myth and in the process degrade the reputation of one of the all-time Oriole greats.

I was listening to Anita Marks and Scott Garceau on WHFS and someone called in to ask how much longer the Yankees could afford to let Derek Jeter play shortstop given his diminishing ability to play the position. Garceau scoffed and said he was sick of hearing how Jeter can no longer play shortstop. Jeter may not have the raw athletic range he once had, opined Garceau, but he put himself in good positions to make the plays and thus gets to as many balls as he ever did. And then he said it...Just like Cal Ripken, Jr. did later in his career.

I have had this argument before on two fronts. The first to show that Cal Ripken did maintain excellent range until he moved to third base in 1997 and to show that Gold Glover Derek Jeter is, by and large, a fraud in the field. And I usually have this argument with baseball fans who are not necessarily statheads. So how do I make the point?

Total Chances. Most baseball fans understand in general terms how Fielding Percentage is calculated (Assists + Putouts)/ Total Chances (Assists + Putouts + Errors). People understand that your Total Chances demonstrate how many times you got to the ball. The numbers don't care how you did it, just that you did it. Here's the graph of total chances by season as full-time shortstops for Ripken and Jeter.



First, each player has a season where they plunge below 500 Total Chances. For Ripken it was 1994, the strike-shortened season. For Jeter, it was 2003 when he was injured and only played 118 games. The rest of the points all represent full seasons.

Jeter only had three seasons where he got to more than 700 balls. Ripken only had two full seasons in which he did not get to 700 balls. When Ripken got to the point that he could barely keep it above 700, he quit kidding himself and switched to third. Jeter has no such self-awareness. I mean, look at the graph. It's a slam dunk.

As Ripken's range and quickness declined, he adapted in two ways. The first, he positioned himself well for each batter and even each pitch. Secondly, and most important, he was blessed with a cannon for a right arm. This allowed him to play deeper, even out on the grass, and still make the plays he needed to.

With Jeter, he was never an elite defender to begin with. He enjoyed three, maybe four decent seasons in the field. He doesn't make a lot of errors once he gets there but, by and large, he doesn't get there. And that's the most important job of a fielder...get to the ball.

And while no fielding metric is perfect, I could grab a ton more data to show the same thing.

So let's put this myth to rest. Jeter is not Ripken. Certainly not in the field and perhaps not even at the plate.

Pre-Season Thoughts in Review: New York Yankees

Revisiting (and revising) some of my preseason looks at AL East teams. Now, another look at this February post about the Yankees.

1. Like Last Year, the Pitching Staff Will Be a Problem

And it has been.

Andy Pettite has been league average, as I expected. Wang was good but now is injured. Phillip Hughes and Ian Kennedy have already flamed out.

The wild cards here have been Joba Chamberlain and Mike Mussina. I thought Chamberlain would be a good starter but I didn't expect him in the rotation this soon. Mussina has recaptured some skills and is having a hell of a last hurrah in pinstripes. If not for these two, the staff would be tryuly abysmal.

The question will be if these two can continue their good performances. Chamberlain looks strong and I expect him to pitch well in the second half. Mussina has tired late in the season the last couple of years. Moose looks more likely to suffer a setback.

2. Jorge Posada Falls to Earth

Well, he has but who really thought he would hit .338 again?

Since his injury, Posada has hit at rates that you would expect Posada to hit at but time will tell if his 36 year old body continues to betray him this season (Look at Jason Varitek for a cautionary tale...)

3. Derek Jeter is the Worst Fielding Shortstop in Baseball

As much as it pains me to say this, Jeter is having one of the best fielding seasons by an AL shortstop in 2008.

By nearly every measure, he is one of the top fielders in the league. His errors are up but they're not at crazy levels. The only thing I could say is that the competition among AL shortstops is light. Outside of Michael Young and Orlando Cabrera, there are no regular AL shortstops with stellar defensive reps.

Of course, he's hitting more like David Eckstein than his normal self...so it balances out I suppose.

4. Who's On First?

I ripped the Yanks for their personnel at firstbase but Jason Giambi has been better and played more games there than I thought. They're going to be fine at first for now.

5. Melky's the Man?

Before the season, I compared Melky to Corey Patterson and found him only slightly better at the plate. So far, Corey Patterson is looking like a better option.

Melky's OPS number for the last three seasons, including his partial 2008, are .751, .718 and .690. He's regressing. He's an easy out.

Conclusion

I was somewhat correct on the rotation. Only Chamberlain has panned out among the youngsters and outside of the surprising Mussina, it has been decimated by injury and ineptitude. However, the bullpen, outside of LaTroy Hawkins, has been stellar and bailed the Yanks out a lot.

The offense has seen unexpected very good performances from Giambi and Johnny Damon (when healthy) and great numbers from A-Rod (as expected). But the rest of the offense has been lackluster at best. The Orioles are scoring more runs!

Without some continued luck with their pitching staff, the O's could still catch these guys and the Blue Jays before year's end...

Stomping The Yankees

The top of the first last night was just about as close to baseball heaven as you can get.

7 runs against Mike Mussina to knock him from the game having retired only two batters. 3 RBI for The Truth. Derek Jeter commits an error. Jeter pouts. What a start!

But honestly, the whole game was like baseball heaven. 12-2. Beats 30-3 any day.

When is Derek Jeter going to man up and admit he can't play short anymore? It's getting embarrassing.

And I loved when Cabrera hit Jeter on the wrist and sent him to the lockers. Hit him right on his stupid little Michael Jordan wristband. Fantastic.

Luke Scott's bat put bad juju on the ball. It kept missing Yankee gloves. When he laid wood on the ball it could not be caught. Hits one to Jeter that he threw high. Hit one to Damon that fell from his glove. Hit one over the fence. They couldn't even throw at him properly.

By the way, retaliation is one thing but even the Yankee announcers thought it was bush league to throw at Scott's head. Especially Ken Singleton.

What slump? Ramon Hernandez is hitting above .300 for the last two weeks.

Round two is tonight. Enjoy watching the hottest team in baseball!

How The Orioles Can Win The East 2008: The Case Against the Yankees Revisited

We all know that for the Orioles to do well this season that other teams in this division will have to slip up along the way. I figured I'd revisit some of these pre-season predictions (wishful thinkings) along the way to see how the rest of the division is stacking up.

First up, the Yankees

Like Last Year, the Pitching Staff Will Be a Problem

Chien-Ming Wang is pitching like the ace the Yankees need. I thought Pettite would be just average this year but he has pitched very well. Mussina has been inconsistent but has been able to keep his ERA below 5.00. The kids, Phillip Hughes and Ian Kennedy, have struggled mightily.

I'll stick by my pre-season prediction that Wang will be good, Mussina will finish with an ERA closer to 5.00 than 4.50 and that the kids will continue to struggle, at least until the All0Star break. The only wild card here is Andy Pettite as he is fully capable of continuing his current production.

On the whole though, the Yankee pitching staff has been a problem thus far.


Jorge Posada Falls to Earth


Posada has only played in 18 games and has hit rather well (.302/.333/.476) for a catcher. The problem is that he can't actually play catcher right now. Posada just went on the DL for the first time in his career and has made it clear that he will not return to action until he is ready to field his position:


"I’m not playing first base," Posada said. "I’m a catcher. We’ve got seven first basemen."


Posada's shoulder injury is not considered season ending but just the fact that it is being discussed in those terms means the Yankees catcher will be missing a significant chunk of the season.


The old catcher is breaking down, just as I predicted.


Derek Jeter is the Worst Fielding Shortstop in Baseball


Depending on which defensive metric you choose to believe, Jeter is either in the middle of the pack or completely dreadful with the glove. I'll give this one another month to allow the number to draw a better conclusion.


Who's On First?


The batting line for all Yankee first basemen this season: .194/.309/.419


That's an OPS of .728 for what is a premier offensive position. That production puts them in the bottom third of the league...right down with the Orioles (ugh).


Nobody's on first.


Melky's the Man?


So far, yes. Melky is OPSing .852, already has 5 homers and is playing a pretty good centerfield.


Well, they can't all go your way.


Conclusion

Before the season I said:

If things are dicey early in the year, this team could literally implode. Youngsters manning crucial positions in the lineup and the pitching staff, surrounded by fragile old veterans who may not deliver the results their reputations promise.

Yeah, that's pretty much what's happening.

How Baltimore Can Win The East '08: The Case Against the Yankees

The Yankees are no longer invincible. As far as I can tell, it gets worse in the Bronx before it gets better.

1. Like Last Year, the Pitching Staff Will Be a Problem

OK, Chien-Ming Wang appears to be a legitimate major league starter. But your ace? Outside of win totals (which vary greatly on run support) there is little difference between his 2007 performance and the performance of Baltimore's de facto ace Jeremy Guthrie. OK, that's a bit of a stretch but not a crazy comparison. Go look.

Andy Pettitte will be 36 this season and was a slightly better than average pitcher last season. He'll be average again (at best) and the Yankees will be thankful for it.

Mike Mussina is old and decrepit. He'll be lucky to post an ERA under 5.00 this season but the Yankees are leaning on him heavily and praying for a comeback season. Why?

Part of this is because of the kids projected to hold up the back end of the rotation. And they will be on strict innings limits according to Bob Klapisch of The Record (NorthJersey.com):

Consider the math. The Yankees have three rookie starters, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy, all on a strict innings limit this season. Chamberlain will be capped at 140 innings, Hughes at 160, Kennedy at 180-190. Assuming 45 or so of Chamberlain's innings are in the bullpen -- he'll start the season as the eighth-inning guardian -- that leaves a glaring hole in the equation.

That means they're counting on Mussina to pitch close to 200 innings this season, something he hasn't done since 2003. If he can't do it, that means someone like Kei Igawa's going to have to pick up the slack. Ouch.

The back of the rotation will be some combination of the kids listed above who may be great pitchers someday. But Yankee fans will no be forgiving if they struggle early and the Yankee fans and press have ruined the confidence of even veteran pitchers.

Lots of questions even if the rotation is healthy.

2. Jorge Posada Falls to Earth

After A-Rod, Jorge Posada was the best Yankee batter and by a huge margin. Do you think he's going to hit .338 again? He had never even hit .290 before last season! A great season but that season is over. The best you are going to see from him is .275 with 20 homeruns. And for a 36 year old catcher, that's a stretch. Unless your name is Carlton Fisk, offensive prowess for catchers does not last past 35.

3. Derek Jeter is the Worst Fielding Shortstop in Baseball

I love this one. In the short time this little blog has been in existence, I have beaten the drum about the Emporor's New Clothes that is Derek Jeter's defensive prowess. Finally, a study was done at Penn that named the three-time Gold Glove winner (Arrrgh! And Cal only got two? Arrrghh!) the worst defensive shortstop in the majors. Which is true and has been for 8 or 9 years now. Poor Jeter got his feelings hurt:

"Every [shortstop] doesn't stay in the same spot, everyone doesn't have the same pitching. Everyone doesn't have the same hitters running, it's impossible to do that."

Well Derek, the good ones choose the right spots to stand in. And everyone does have the same hitters running, over the course of a season. All the teams face essentially the same lineups over 162 games.

Pitching? I suppose if you had the same guys on staff for the last decade, that would be a valid argument. In 1999, roughly when you started to suck as a shortstop, the staff was Orlando Hernandez, Andy Pettitte, Roger Clemens, David Cone and Hideki Irabu. I know Clemens and Pettitte came back last year but come on. The Yankee staff has always had pretty high turnover.

Yankee Senior Advisor Gene Michael had this to say:

"Each team has a different staff. Derek doesn't really have a sinkerball pitching staff whereas other shortstops, you sit behind certain pitchers, you're going to get a lot of ground balls."

Gene have you met Mr. Wang? Gene meet Mr. Wang. He works for you. He does nothing but induce grounders about 60% of the time. Oh, and here's Mr. Pettitte. He works for you too. He induces grounders at a 50% rate over the last 4 years.

Ditto for Clemens.

Look the stats reflect what the eye reveals. Jeter can't go left. I don't care how hard you hustle. Diving for a ball that dribbles into left center doesn't make you a better fielder. It just means you fail with style.

Anyway, I should just write a long involved post about this some other time. But don't expect a 34 year old Jeter to be any kind of effective fielder in 2008.

4. Who's On First?

Would you want this guy manning first base for your team?









What a goober.

Easily the most annoying Yankee of the 21st century. And I can't talk about him without thinking of Peter Pan. (OK, Peter Pan was Sandy Duncan but my point still stands. Right?)

This is the leading candidate. Giambi can't play the field anymore. He's just a roided out shell of his former self.

Shelley Duncan. He had a nice year for a bench player but don't expect that to translate into success as a starter. There is nothing is his past to suggest he'll repeat the slugging clinic he put on last year.

And he has a girl's name...


5. Melky's the Man?

For all the fawning the New York press does over this guy, you would expect him to be better.

            OPS
Cabrera    .718
Patterson  .690
 

Considering Corey Patterson's 2007 was viewed as a disappointment it's hard to see how Cabrera's marginally better bat was seen as a breakthrough. Equalizing for Patterson's defense and baserunning, I'd say they're pretty much even. You might even give the edge to Patterson. Maybe.

This wouldn't be a huge deal for the Yankees until you look at Johnny Damon's struggles, the offensive hole at first, a declining Posada and a decaying DH in Giambi. This outfield is not going to be very formidable at the plate in 2008.

Conclusion

If things are dicey early in the year, this team could literally implode. Youngsters manning crucial positions in the lineup and the pitching staff, surrounded by fragile old veterans who may not deliver the results their reputations promise.

The Bronx is burning indeed.

Next up: The Boston Red Sox

It Was Truly a Good Friday

A question for Sam Perlozzo; Sam, why are you having Melvin Mora try to sac bunt Brian Roberts to third base in the first inning with nobody out? Fortunately for you Sam, Mora laid down a great bunt and legged it out for a single because Markakis came up next and laced a double down the rightfield line, plating both baserunners. If you had your way Sam, you would've cost us a run.

Everyone flashing the glove in the first inning. Right after Michael Kay describes the O's defense as "less than airtight", Brian Roberts snagged a line drive and doubled Melky Cabrera off of 1st and then Mora made a diving stop on a Bobby Abreu liner.

Good things about Jeter: Fouled one off his toe, hit into a double play, failed to cover second on a Corey Patterson bunt, failed to cover second on a steal by Melvin Mora. I love watching Jeter limp.

Adam Loewen wasn't as sharp as we've seen him before but the result is the same. He's a Yankee killer. The bullpen holds the lead once again and O's win 6-4. More on this game later.

Igawa awaits at 1:05. Let's go O's!