For Gold Gloves, A Picture is Worth a Thousand Words

A graph showing Total Zone defensive ratings for the firt 15 years of Derek Jeter's and Cal Ripken, Jr.'s careers:

Gold Gloves for Jeter: 5
Gold Gloves for Ripken: 2

For more on this, see this post. And maybe this one too.

Base Hits: The Price of Greatness, Prospect News and The AFL Winds Down

Many have made their thoughts known about the AL Gold Glove selections but Joe Posnanski lays it out better than anyone else can.

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Feeling the Hot Stove itch? Wanting the Orioles to get aggressive in the free agent market? Daniel Moroz lays out what kind of money it would take to make the Orioles a contender in 2010...and it's a bit sobering.

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Want some good news? Orioles prospects Josh Bell and Brandon Snyder had the reputation for suspect defense. But Baseball America's Ben Badler says that perception is changing fast.


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In the stunner of the offseason, the Reds have signed C Ramon Hernandez to a $3 million deal for 2010 with a vesting option for 2011. Really? He's not a great defensive catcher anymore and the likes of Gregg Zaun outhit him in 2009. You would think there would be cheaper options available through free agency.

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The Phoenix Desert Dogs have clinched the AFL East in the Arizona Fall League. They will play in the AFL Championship game this Saturday at 2:30 PM. It will be a good chance to see Oriole 3B prospect Josh Bell, among others. Top draft pick and Nationals savior Stephen Strasbourg will start for the Desert Dogs.

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From an MLB Network press release I got in the mail...

A new season of Baseball’s Seasons begins this week on MLB Network with a focus on the most memorable moments of the 1979 Major League Baseball season. The documentary-style series created by Major League Baseball Productions focuses on the Pittsburgh Pirates’ championship season led by Dave Parker and 1979 National League MVP Willie Stargell; the story of the Baltimore Orioles, led by Hall of Fame manager Earl Weaver and 1979 All-Star Ken Singleton; and the California Angels who, with veterans like Rod Carew & 1979 American League MVP Don Baylor, reached the playoffs for the first time in the franchise’s history....

The episode will air on Wednesday, November 18 at 8:00 p.m. ET and re-air at 11:00 p.m. ET.

Should be some good O's footage in this episoide. Maybe some Don Stanhouse footage...

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According to NPBTracker.com, former Oriole and current Rays farmhand 1B Chris Richard is trying out for the Chiba Lotte Marines of the NPB (the major Japanese league).

On another note, Yomiuri Giants pitcher Hisanori Takahashi recently reported in an interview that he is coming to the US to pitch next year in part because of a current Oriole pitcher.

When did you start considering the Major Leagues?

“The desire to accomplish my dream has gotten stronger since last year. After watching Koji Uehara play baseball overseas, my admiration for Major Leagues increased.”

Maybe his admiration for the Baltimore Orioles increased too and he will come and join Uehara on the Orioles. We need all the help we can get.

Base Hits: Jones Gets His Glove, Spring Training (Again) and Prospect News

Will the Orioles hold Spring Training in Sarasota in 2010 after all?

It makes little sense that they won't given the fact that there will be an Oriole Fan Fest in Sarasota this weekend and with so much invested in the move. This problem with notification would appear to be just a technicality.

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So after I offered all the rational reasons that Adam Jones would not win a Gold Glove yesterday, he won it anyway.

Congrats to him...if you base it on his last two seasons of work, he is very deserving. But just like I argued last season for Jones and Markakis to win the award and in 2007 for Markakis again, I would be a bit disingenuous if I pretended that Jones deserved the award for his work in 2009 alone. By the same standards I championed him last season, I must say that he is not one of the three best outfielders in the AL. The highest I could honestly put him is 4th.


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The Orioles made their first acquisition of the offseason when they grabbed P Armando Gabino off waivers from the Minnesota Twins. Who? (Give them this, the Orioles's scouts are paying attention. They seem to always know the guys they feel are worthy of a waiver claim...whether they actually work out out or not.)

Gabino is a 6'3", 215 lb righty who will be 26 next season. He has a 3.30 minor league ERA and while not a big strikeout guy, he does have a nice K/BB ratio (2.67 in AAA last year). He's not really a groundball pitcher but not really a flyball pitcher either. I take nothing from the 3.2 innings he pitched for the Twins last year.

All you people who moan about the bullpen...these are the kinds of moves that can turn a bullpen around.

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Baseball Prospectus has released their Top 11 (plus four more) Prospects for the Baltimore Orioles and non-subscribers can check out the list here.

Some excerpts from the write-ups:

3B Josh Bell - As much as Bell improved at the plate in 2009, he made even larger strides defensively. Once seen as a future first baseman, Bell has made significant improvement in his instincts and footwork at the hot corner, while his arm has always been a plus. In an age where many players focus solely on the batting cage, Bell's commitment to defense also speaks to his makeup...While Bell is a switch-hitter, he still struggles against left-handers, as hit he just .193 with one homer against them in 2009.

SP Jake Arrieta - Arrieta's secondary pitches are all works in progress, which leads to an overreliance on his fastball, a habit that had him getting punished at times in the International League.

SP Matt Hobgood - There are concerns about Hobgood's body, as those who saw him in the Appalachian League and instructional league say he was already significantly larger than his listed weight of 245 pounds. That factor, combined with the stress of a long year, saw his velocity dip into the 87-91 range during his pro debut. Conditioning will likely always be an issue with him.

1B Brandon Snyder - Snyder doesn't profile well at his position, as he lacks plus power. While his defense has improved at first base, he's still below average there. A steady diet of breaking balls exposed the holes in his offensive game at Triple-A, and he'll need to make adjustments to have any kind of major league career.

C Caleb Joseph - Joseph will get his first taste of the upper levels in 2010 by beginning the year at Double-A, with a chance to end it as one of Baltimore's best trade chips.

That stuff about Matt Hobgood going all Sidney Ponson on us at age 18 is a bit disconcerting. But there's a lot to like on this list.

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The Dan Uggla to Baltimore reports are interesting. A righthanded power bat that can move to first or DH if Josh Bell forces his way to Baltimore.

But I wouldn't give up a ton for a guy who is a career 114 OPS+...in the weaker National League and has little value in the field.

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In news that matters only to me, Baysox C Adam Donachie will return to the Oriole organization next season. Donachie is a good defensive catcher and rakes against lefties. Part of me still believes he will make a good backup catcher in Baltimore someday.

Why Adam Jones Is Not Actually Going to Win A Gold Glove This Year

I'm not one to address a lot of rumors on this site but when reputable sources start reporting them, I feel the need to at least throw some cold water in the general direction.

Rumor has it that Oriole CF Adam Jones will be awarded his first Gold Glove early this week. How do we know this? His brother congratulated him on his MySpace page for the award. Flimsy evidence that everybody seems to be running with. However, there is a ton of evidence to the contrary.

What follows is a look at how Gold Gloves are awarded and how Jones stands up to each set of criteria. This is not an analysis on whether Jones deserves the award or not. I think most avid baseball fans realize that the award does not always go to the most deserving player. (The fact that Derek Jeter owns more Gold Gloves than Cal Ripken, Jr. is a case in point.) I looked at AL outfield award winners from the last 20 years for comparison.

1. Gold Gloves are Awarded on Reputation

The winners are voted for by major league managers and coaches. Managers are not allowed to vote for their own players. This is one of the factors that contribute to players continuing to get a Gold Glove even as their skills in the field decline. If a player has won 4 straight awards, he is likely to be written in again by many voters simply because they "know he's a great fielder". Not necessarily the best but a great fielder.

Jones faces three incumbents in the AL: Torii Hunter, Ichiro Suzuki and Grady Sizemore. Hunter and Suzuki have each won for 8 straight seasons. Sizemore for 2. Was Jones' defense really so spectacular that he unseats one of these three? I don't think so.

But even if you dropped Sizemore (he was hurt for much of 2009), there are other reps to overcome. Would Jones be able to elbow aside Carl Crawford, an AL outfielder with a terrific and deserved defensive reputation? Or Franklin Gutierrez? Or BJ Upton? Or Curtis Granderson? All these guys have a longer track record and a perception that they are great defenders. And all are at least as good as Jones was in 2009.

To paraphrase The Fresh Prince, "Jones is only 23, he don't have a rep yet."

2. Gold Gloves are Influenced by Offense As Much As Defense

Sad but true, many Gold Gloves are given in part because a player's bat gets them some attention. First time award winners often have eye-popping stats at the plate.

Kenny Lofton hits .325 and steals 70 bases in '93. Jay Buhner hits 44 homers in '95. Shawn Green hits 42 homers in 1999. Darin Erstad hit's .355 in 2000. Some of these players were worthy Gold Glovers, some of them weren't. But their first wins all coincided with great offensive years.

Did Jones have a great offensive year? No. He made strides and was a good hitter but he wasn't an elite offensive force.

It works the opposite way too sometimes. But Ichiro hit .352 this season and Hunter had the best offensive season of his career. They are unlikely to be unseated as Gold Glovers. Sizemore

had a down year but his OPS was still better than Jones. Again, Sizemore looks to be the weak link at this point but Jones doesn't have the eye-popping stats that could unseat an entrenched winner.

3. The Rule of 120

No AL outfielder in the last 20 years has won his first Gold Glove while playing less than 120 games. It's rare that it has happened at all, at least in a non-strike year. Hunter won a Gold glove in '05 playing 98. Griffey won it in '95 playing in 72. But these were "rep" awards.

Jones only played in 119 games. I'm sure many managers and coaches didn't even see him this season during the stretches that he was injured. He simply didn't play enough to make a big impression.

4. If Voters Look at Fielding Stats at All, They Look at "Traditional" Stats

Voters tend to look at basic fielding stats like errors and fielding percentage, if they look at all. Jones' .986 fielding percentage is near the bottom of regular AL centerfielders. There are not many outfielders who can top 5 errors either...and Jones only played 118 games in the field.

Nothing from the basic stats (or the advanced stats for that matter) make Jones stand out. If you were looking at these basic stats, David DeJesus would have to be a strong candidate (and he may be one anyway).

Conclusion

So, Adam Jones is going to unseat incumbent Gold glove winners, overcome other veteran outfielders with good defensive reputations and win his first Gold Glove with a "meh" offensive season and a "meh" season with the glove, all the while playing less than 75% of the season on a small market losing team? Add to this the fact that to the "eye" and the advanced defensive metrics, Jones did not always look great in the field.

Is it impossible for Jones to win? No. Is he deserving? Probably not. Is he likely to win? Absolutely not. It just doesn't make sense, regardless of what a guy on MySpace claims.

Base Hits: 11/7/2008

You know, I always thought that Keith Law of ESPN had extreme views when it came to completely disregarding postseason awards. I'm beginning to come around. This is a quote from Keith in regards to Chase Utley being passed over for a Gold Glove this season. It can be fairly applied to the decision to deny Nick Markakis his first Gold Glove as well:

If GGs weren't already a complete and utter joke, unworthy of even a moment of our attention, then that's where they are now.

I'm really beginning to agree.

I stated earlier this week that Nick might get bumped by Torii Hunter based on rep alone and I was right. But even I didn't see a choice so lame as Ichiro.

Neither Hunter nor Ichiro are bad fielders but they are far from the best. The best argument you can make for them is that they are average. Neither is even close to Markakis. Not even a little bit. See my other post. They're not even in the conversation.

Of course, how could we put much faith in a system that awards Derek Jeter more career Gold Gloves (3) than Cal Ripken (2)?

Rob Neyer, another ESPN baseball writer, probably summed it up best:

It's hard to escape the conclusion that the managers and the coaches just don't give a damn about the process. It's a strange thing, to care more than the actual voters about the Gold Gloves. But year after year, it sure seems like we do.

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The prospects in Hawaii are all playing really bad baseball. It's far too depressing to post about as I can find no silver lining on any of these clouds. The Baltimore Sun's Dean Jones, Jr. offers all the ugly details.

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Also at the Sun, Jeff Zrebiec reports that Mr. Reluctant wants to try to return to the Orioles as a starter next season.

Fine by me. The official slogan for the 2009 Baltimore Oriole rotation should be "We'll Take Anybody". Anybody with one arm and can walk to the mound should get a shot.

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John Sickels had these observations after watching Matt Wieters in the Arizona Fall League:

1) This won't come as a surprise to you, but Matt Wieters is really, really good. He is a cross between Joe Mauer and Mike Piazza. The only things that could hurt him would be injury (always possible) or a really severe case of Young Catcher Stagnation Syndrome (seems unlikely to me).

Nice to hear it!

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What the hell. I'm reviving the Song of the Week. Here's Marah performing "The Dishwasher's Dream". I'll warn you in advance that the lyrics reference "a Yanks winning streak". Have a great weekend!

A Golden Argument for Nick Markakis

Nick Markakis had a fantastic year with the glove this year. We know it. But we've watched a bunch of Oriole games this season. How many non-Oriole fans can say that?

So Nick's hopes for a Gold Glove rest on word of mouth and the numbers.

Defensive stats are flawed but if you look at the whole spectrum, you start to get an idea of how good Markakis was this year. All stats are for AL corner outfielders.

RZR for AL Corner Outfielders

Drew       .935

Markakis   .925

Crawford   .911

Ibanez     .893

Dye        .887

 

Only J.D. Drew had a better Zone Rating. But...

OOZ (Out of Zone) Plays by AL Corner Outfielders

Markakis   56

Dye        55

Gutierrez  55

Suzuki     50

Rios       50


 

Nick leads the corner outfielders is plays out of his "defensive zone". Great range, great jump on the ball.

BIZ Leaders

Markakis   295

Ibanez     291

Young      275

Abreu      274

Dye        238


 

Fielding Percentage

Dye      .996

Abreu    .993

Markakis .991


 

Fielding Percentage is a very flawed stat since you can't make an error on a ball you didn't get to in the first place. But Markakis is still third in the league with only 3 errors all year despite leading the league in balls hit to his "zone".

Assists

Markakis   17

Young      11

Abreu      10

Anderson    9

Ibanez      9


 

Markakis is far and away the leader in outfield assists. Only B.J. Upton (a centerfielder) is close with 16 assists. Among corner outfielders, he is the undisputed champ.

All of this while leading the league's corner outfielders in innings played.

What else does he have to do?

Nothing.

The only problem is that voters select the Gold Glovers from the entire pool of outfielders so he'll be competing with centerfielders too. At a glance, there are four centerfielders who are worthy of serious consideration: Carlos Gomez (Twins), Grady Sizemore (Indians), our own Adam Jones and B.J. Upton (Rays).

Jones is a rookie and played fewer innings than the others due to his injuries so he is probably out. B.J. Upton led AL centerfielders in assists but didn't show great range and made a fair share of errors. Carlos Gomez had the best overall range and made the most SportsCenter caliber catches. Grady Sizemore was probably the best all-around centerfielder in the AL.

Sizemore and Gomez should win two of the three available Gold Gloves. I can't see Markakis losing to Upton. Only Torii Hunter, based on reputation alone and not current prowess, could jump up and bite him.

Stupider things have happened.

However, I am guessing Nick picks up the first of several Gold Gloves this year. It won't be because he doesn't deserve it.