Base Hits: 5/4/2009

The Orioles have lost six straight and now have a two game series in Tampa squaring off against Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza. Not looking good. But let's see if we can mine for some hope...

Aki Iwamura, Evan Longoria and B.J. Upton have had success versus Adam Eaton in limited action. No one else on the Rays has (including 0-9 for Pat Burrell and 2-9 for Carl Crawford). Could Eaton sneak past the dangerous Rays hitters and defeat a struggling Scott Kazmir (5.40 ERA)? Maybe. Roberts, Markakis and Huff own him.

On the other hand, Matt Garza is 5-0 versus the Orioles. Maybe we can just go for the split.

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Dennis Sarfate goes on the DL with numbness in his hand and the Orioles recall RP Bob McCrory from Norfolk. McCrory was bringing it, hitting 95+ on the radar gun when I saw him in Gwinnett last month. It'll be interesting to see if he has good movement on that fastball.

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Frederick 1B/3B Brandon Waring is OPSing .867 this season. Find out the backstory of this player acquired from the Reds in the Ramon Hernandez deal.

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Danys Baez aka Mr. Reluctant has posted a 2.63 ERA this season and it's no mistake. He's struck out 12 in 13.2 IP and only walked 4 for a WHIP of 0.805. Who saw that coming? On a related note, Jamie Walker has posted a 1.93 ERA in a very LOOGY-type role.

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City commissioners in Sarasota will vote this afternoon and are poised to kill the deal to bring the Baltimore Orioles there for Spring Training. No, this time they really mean it.

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George Sherrill is not guaranteed the closer role going forward. The path forward? Closer by committee. Dave Trembley:

"...I have to take a look at the situation and do what I feel is in the best interest of the team for today. Further than that, I'll probably take it day by day."

Sherrill is none too pleased:

"The thing is, I would like to have the chance to pitch myself out of the opportunity...We do have a lot of guys to do it, but I want to be the guy to do it. I don't really understand it, but when it all gets said and done, wins are what matters.

"Closer-by-committee doesn't work and won't work. We'll have to sit down and talk about it and figure out what to do."

Well, George is right when he says closer-by-committee won't work. It won't work without willing participants.

I love closer by committee. It allows a more flexible use of your 'pen and give the manager more opportunities to put guys in a place to succeed.

Unfortunately, it almost never works. It's the psychological component that fails. Relievers like to have clearly defined roles. Always have.

I guess George Sherrill will move back to lefty specialist now?

Base Hits: 11/7/2008

You know, I always thought that Keith Law of ESPN had extreme views when it came to completely disregarding postseason awards. I'm beginning to come around. This is a quote from Keith in regards to Chase Utley being passed over for a Gold Glove this season. It can be fairly applied to the decision to deny Nick Markakis his first Gold Glove as well:

If GGs weren't already a complete and utter joke, unworthy of even a moment of our attention, then that's where they are now.

I'm really beginning to agree.

I stated earlier this week that Nick might get bumped by Torii Hunter based on rep alone and I was right. But even I didn't see a choice so lame as Ichiro.

Neither Hunter nor Ichiro are bad fielders but they are far from the best. The best argument you can make for them is that they are average. Neither is even close to Markakis. Not even a little bit. See my other post. They're not even in the conversation.

Of course, how could we put much faith in a system that awards Derek Jeter more career Gold Gloves (3) than Cal Ripken (2)?

Rob Neyer, another ESPN baseball writer, probably summed it up best:

It's hard to escape the conclusion that the managers and the coaches just don't give a damn about the process. It's a strange thing, to care more than the actual voters about the Gold Gloves. But year after year, it sure seems like we do.

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The prospects in Hawaii are all playing really bad baseball. It's far too depressing to post about as I can find no silver lining on any of these clouds. The Baltimore Sun's Dean Jones, Jr. offers all the ugly details.

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Also at the Sun, Jeff Zrebiec reports that Mr. Reluctant wants to try to return to the Orioles as a starter next season.

Fine by me. The official slogan for the 2009 Baltimore Oriole rotation should be "We'll Take Anybody". Anybody with one arm and can walk to the mound should get a shot.

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John Sickels had these observations after watching Matt Wieters in the Arizona Fall League:

1) This won't come as a surprise to you, but Matt Wieters is really, really good. He is a cross between Joe Mauer and Mike Piazza. The only things that could hurt him would be injury (always possible) or a really severe case of Young Catcher Stagnation Syndrome (seems unlikely to me).

Nice to hear it!

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What the hell. I'm reviving the Song of the Week. Here's Marah performing "The Dishwasher's Dream". I'll warn you in advance that the lyrics reference "a Yanks winning streak". Have a great weekend!

Meanwhile, On the Field of Play...

...the Orioles struck a blow for all that is right in the world by beating the Yankees in extras and taking the series in the Bronx. Winning series against the Red Sox and the Yankees back to back...that's very sweet.

I feel bad that Bedard did not get the win but it was almost sweeter to come back and win it in extras.

Have I mentioned how much I hate Shelley Duncan? He hits that fluky three-run homer and gave me a heart attack. With a name like his he should be playing Peter Pan or something, not playing major league baseball. And I hate how he jumps up and down like a friggin' 8 year old everytime on of the Yankees hits a homerun. Sit down and act like you belong in the major leagues. Stupid little forearm bashes. He makes me sick...

Anyway, a win is a win. Jeter got plunked, Jeter made an error, Jeter went 0-4 with two strikeouts, all good things.

Trembley gets some heat for how he's using the bullpen but, hey, he's only using wht he's got. With injuries and bad free agent signings (Mr. Reluctant...I'm looking at you), he's done a pretty good job at juggling guys around. If it doesn't work, he's not afraid to change it and try something else. I like that about this manager.

So it's off to Toronto and then the Rangers, Twins and Rays come to Baltimore. Hopefully, the momentum will continue...

Can The Bullpen Be Fixed?

O's fans, there's no sense in getting upset when the Baltimore bullpen coughs up a lead this season. The season is lost and it's now open auditions for the bullpen spots. It's time to find out if anybody on this team can stabilize the 'pen in preparation for next year.

Chad Bradford and Jamie Walker are exempt from this conversation. They signed for big money in the offseason and have pitched well. Look for them to share the seventh and eighth innings, trading off as the setup man for the rest of the year. Who else?

Chris Ray

Some rate stats for Ray comparing last year to this year

       FIP    K/9   BB/9   HR/9

2006  4.87    7.4    3.9   1.44

2007  4.14    9.0    3.6   1.19

Ray has blown 4 saves this year this year compared to 5 all of last year but in
most important categories he is actually pitching better than last year. The
problem? A lot of balls are finding holes this year where last year the defense
bailed him out a bit more. I think Ray will have things go more his way in the
second half and he should remain the closer next year.

Danys Baez

He reluctantly signed with the O's to setup for Ray but failed to do so effectively and now the O's may be reluctant to bring him back next year. Most peripheral stats (WHIP, K/9) are consistent with his career numbers but he just gave up way too many homeruns to remain effective. It's hard to say what his role may be until he comes off the DL. He certainly needs to put together a strong second half to have a good shot to make the club next year.

Paul Shuey

Shuey's been a nice story but the results haven't been good in the majors do far. He hasn't struck out that many but he's walked just as many as he's punched out which is not a good combination for a reliever. He's also got a WHIP close to 2.00. He'll get a chance to pitch until Baez gets healthy but I don't think he's much more than a mopup guy anymore.

John Parrish

Parrish was a nice story early in the season and it would probably be a bit unfair to judge him on this season's performance given the workload Sam Perlozzo laid on him. Except for one thing. It's a dirty little secret that Parrish walks batters at vintage Daniel Cabrera type rates. You can get away with that if you go 7 innings on a regular basis, not as a reliever. He has to go.

Kurt Birkins

I really want to like Birkins. His K rates and walk rates in the minors are impressive but he has yet to translate that into major league success. He gives up a lot of hits, even in AAA. He has the talent to pitch around those hits in Norfolk but he sure doesn't have the talent to pitch around them in Baltimore. Maybe he will be useful one day but I don't see it anytime soon.

Rob Bell

The journeyman, mostly in the minors, has been a strikeout ace in the minors but, like Birkins, hasn't translated it into big league success...until now. The O's are the first team to give Bell a significant look out of the bullpen and the 2.89 ERA is misleading (he has only 6 K's and 7 BB in his six games this season) and he may not get a chance to sort himself out in Baltimore but he's an intriguing possibility for long relief.

Cory Doyne

I like relievers who were closers in the minors, even if they never end up closing for the big club and Doyne has already saved 26 at midseason (setting a new record for the Tides franchise) and is posting a K/BB ratio of over 3 to 1. I like his chances to break with the club out of Spring Training next year and maybe even begin playing a pivotal role in the bullpen starting in August.

Jim Hoey

Hoey dominated the Eastern League, saving 14 games, appearing in 20 and posting a 0.00 ERA! His ERA in Norfolk has been 1.65 up to this point but he is striking out batters at an even higher rate and the International League is only batting .151 against him. It's just a matter of time before his talent begins to translate against big league hitters. The 24 year old is dominant and should be in the O's pen next year.

Brian Burres

I like Burres but I think his future is in the pen, not in the rotation. Assuming he's not forced into the rotation again, he'll be the primary long man next year.

Predicted O's bullpen for 2008:

Chris Ray - Closer

Chad Bradford - Setup

Jamie Walker - Setup

Brian Burres - Long Relief

Jim Hoey - Relief

Cory Doyne - Relief

That could be a dominant 'pen.

Conversation Overheard...

Jim Duquette: Danys, I think we're going to have to put you on the DL.

Mr. Reluctant: What for?

J.D.: Because of that tendinitis in your right forearm.

Mr. Reluctant: I don't have any tendinitis in my...

J.D.: Yes, you do.

Mr. Reluctant: No, I don't...

Duquette: Yes, you do.

Mr. Reluctant: Um, no I feel anything...

J.D.: But you do feel like collecting your ample paycheck for the rest of the year, right? And you do feel like coming back and trying to make the team in Spring Training '08 to collect the rest of it, right? How's that forearm feeling?

Mr. Reluctant: You know my arm actually does feel a little sore...


I'm back from vacation, let the festivities begin.

Mr. Baez had finally developed an "injury" allowing some fresh blood from the minors (including James Hoey whom I called for nearly a month ago...) so we'll see if this helps right the bullpen. It certainly couldn't hurt.

The O's keep finding ways to lose, close ones and blowouts. Want to get your team on a winning streak? Head to Baltimore.

Arizona had lost 6 of 7 then swept the O's.
The Nationals had gone a mediocre 5-7 before sweeping Baltimore.
Even the Rockies had been squeaking by with a 4-4 record before taking the series from the Orioles.

The talent on this team is not that bad. They should be competing against teams of this caliber, not lose 8 of 9 to them.

It's time for Perlozzo to go.

The $42 million bullpen? Jamie Walker, Chad Bradford and Scott Williamson have been pretty good this year. 3 outta 4 ain't bad I guess...

John Maine stats since the end of April: 2-4, 4.27 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7 K/9. A mediocrity in a pitcher's park.

More review of the season upcoming tomorrow. I'm going to check out the other blogs...

Haven't Been Posting Lately...

...I'm going on vacationand have been trying to get ahead at work before I leave and probably won't post again for another week and a half but...


SEND MR. RELUCTANT TO NORFOLK! BRING UP KURT BIRKINS!

Thank you, I feel better now.

Back In Town...

I should leave town and lose track of the O's more often it seems.



I have been in Tulsa, away from the internet and ESPN (mostly) for the past five days and the O's have won every game.



I am still catching up with all the news and boxscores and I have still not changed my expectations for the team after writing off the season last week but we would all agree that winning is better than losing.



Quick observations: Steve Trachsel pitched his annual complete game this week. How big was Nick Markakis' homerun last night?



Pretty big as it turned out, moving the WPA .132 with a single swing and effectively putting the game out of reach. (Courtesy FanGraphs.com)


Mr. Reluctant looks like he has finally pitched himself out of the setup role which is a good thing. Funny how Baez was reluctant to accept the setup role and now the O's are reluctant to have to send him to the mound in any meaningful capacity.


More analysis to follow...

I'm Set Free

I've been set free and I've been bound
To the memories of yesterday's clouds...
And now, I'm set free

- Lou Reed


Sorry I have not been posting, I am leaving town for Memorial Day weekend and needed to work a little extra before I left...

It's an annual tradition for me and last night that tradition has continued. I have written off the season and will be far less tortured for the next few months now that I realize there is little hope for a 2007 turnaround.

The standard was set back on May 17th after the O's were swept by Toronto. if the O's don't win the rest of the series for the month, they will have no shot at contending for anything and I will divorce myself emotionally from this team. As you all know, the O's beat the Nationals but were unable to win the rubber game with Toronto last night. Was it a lot to expect? Maybe. But if the O's aren't better than the Nationals, an injury depleted Blue Jay team, an injury depleted Oakland team and the Royals then there isn't much hope for success this year. None of those teams (save maybe Oakland) is going to be very good this year.

They are now 5 games below .500.

It's over.

After this post, I can continue the rest of the year with cold statistical analysis and looking for trends for next season and I won't be so miserable when Mr. Reluctant blows yet another game. I won't be miserable when Sam Perlozzo make some silly move to put the game in jeopardy. I won't be miserable when the infield botches double plays.

I'll still be watching but I will be a lot more at peace.

I'm set free.

Random O's Related Notes

I may be the only one left out here not calling for Sam Perlozzo's head at this point. Support for Sam has eroded with The Oriole Post and Oriole Central having joined Oriole Magic is calling for Perlozzo's removal. The general opinion of Camden Chat and the comments on Roch Kubato's blog echo the sentiment. Even Roch is questioning Sam's decision making and David Steele at the Baltimore Sun is calling for Perlozzo to be cut loose.





Why should Sam remain? I've got three reasons.





A) I believe a manager should be given a full two years to show what he can do. We should probably let him play out the string.





B) It's not his fault nobody's hitting.





C) It's not his fault Mr. Reluctant is a bum. (Although as I mentioned before, Baez has had enough second chances. Take him out of that setup role now!)





I don't agree with many things Perlozzo does (bench makeup, bullpen deployment, etc) but the O's should be a winning team even with a modest offensive output and they haven't been able to manage even that.



But this team will be in a lot of nip and tuck games and Perlozzo has not shown a knack for winning the close ones. Managers really don't affect the game much during games that aren't particularly close but good management is needed to guide the team to close wins. The sparkline below shows wins (up bars) and losses (down bars) for the O's this season. The red bars are games decided by one run.






That's a lot of red below the line (especially lately) and it's the most damning evidence of Perlozzo's poor management thus far.


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John Maine got shelled on Tuesday and roughed up again last night. The beatings will continue, mark my words.

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Former Oriole "Stumblin' " Jack Cust has been making the most of his latest major league opportunity with the A's hitting .283 with 8 HR in only 14 games. Good for him and I hope it works out for him this time. He's been an outstanding minor league hitter for years.

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Paul Bako sucks. He lives on his reputation as a defensive specialist but I haven't seen evidence of it this year. His bumble of a pop foul induced by Brian Burres in his last start merely highlights his struggles behind the plate this year. And we all know what a lousy hitter he is. Really, there was no one better? Even Alberto Castillo may be a better fit.


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A fine article over at the Roar From 34 about the state of the overworked bullpen. Although they proclaim they are not "statheads" they do a nice job of breaking down the stats to make their point.

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A really interesting stat that is stunning to me is Jeremy Guthrie and his ability to adjust to hitters the second and third time through the lineup.

1st PA: .326
2nd PA: .163
3rd PA: .091

Not only is it unusual for this number to drop as the game progresses, it drops dramatically. Once he's "stretched out" completely, Guthrie could become quite a workhorse in this rotation.

Sloppy in Tampa

Melvin Mora laid down a bunt in the first that got him all the way to third after the third baseman overthrew first and B. J. Upton fell down trying to retrieve the ball. Mora was stranded at third however.

A comedy (or tragedy) of errors in the third as Huff botched a grounder, then threw the ball away over Loewen's head as he covered first. Then Paul Bako got the ball and threw it away again trying to get Crawford at the plate. Two unearned runs...(sigh)

Adam Loewen did not have his command tonight. He pitched well to get out of a bases loaded jam in the third (that was not really his fault) but could not survive the same situation in the 4th as he walked Crawford with the bases loaded and was subsequently pulled. (On a positive note, Nick Markakis made another great diving catch in the 4th inning going full speed up and to his left to snowcone the ball barely before it hits the turf.)

Jeremy Guthrie provided no relief though as, on his first pitch, he gave up a bases clearing double to Ty Wigginton and six runs were on the board for Tampa. Guthrie would give up another in a shaky 5th. Overall though, Guthrie was able to settle down, pitch 2+ innings and keep the bleeding to a minimum. Pretty nice we didn't have to use him yesterday, huh?

Baltimore clawed their way back in with an RBI groundout by Melvin Mora in the 5th and an improbable two-run homer by Freddie Bynum in the 6th. With two outs in the 6th, Kevin Millar was patient as always, drawing the walk allowing Bynum a crack at Shields. The O's were within 4.

In the 7th, Brian Roberts led off and slapped a grounder through the right side and Mora made Shields pay for a mistake as he deposited one in the rightfield stands to bring the O's within 2, 7-5. Markakis was absolutely robbed of a double down the rightfield line by Ty Wigginton. (Wigginton did the same to Aubrey Huff earlier in the game...). Tejada then came up and doubled, Huff blooped one into center and was able to take second since 2B B. J. Upton left the bag open to pursue the ball. With men on 2nd and 3rd, Jay Gibbons lined one to center, doubling in Tejada and Huff to tie the game. Millar walked and ball four was a wild pitch that allowed Gibbons to advance to third. Bynum grounded out as Gibbons scored to take the 8-7 lead!

And right about here my network connection went all flaky and I couldn't see the rest of the game. The bullpen did another good job as Bradford, Parrish and Mr. Reluctant shut the Rays down and got the ball to Chris Ray who closed them out. Aubrey Huff added an insurance run with a solo homer in the 9th.

Don't look now but the O's are now over .500 for the first time in nearly a year, are the hottest team in the AL and a mere game out of first in the AL East.

Casey Fossum is lined up next like so much raw meat...

The WPA graph is here and reflects the wild swings the game took. Jay Gibbons proved to be the most influencial batter while Mr. Reluctant pitched in the most high leverage situations.